Stricter Covid mask rules could’ve saved hundreds of thousands of lives, new study finds
Restrictions in Northeastern states likely ‘saved many lives’ say researchers
The US could have avoided almost 250,000 Covid-19 deaths if every state had adopted stricter mask and vaccine requirements seen in the Northeast during the height of the pandemic, according to a new study.
Researchers say that the country, which saw more than 1.1 million Covid deaths, could have been spared an estimated 118,000 to 248,000 more lives.
The research from University of Virginia public policy and economics professor Christopher J Ruhm, published Friday in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) Health Forum, analyzed mortality data between 2020 and 2022, comparing it to a baseline of 2017 through 2019.
“These study findings do not support the views of those opposing COVID-19 restrictions who erroneously believe the restrictions did not work,” Ruhm writes. “To the contrary, the package of policies implemented by some states probably saved many lives.”
“If all states had imposed restrictions similar to those used in the 10 most restrictive states, excess deaths would have been an estimated 10% to 21% lower than the 1.18 million that actually occurred during the 2-year analysis period,” according to the study.
“Conversely, the estimates suggest counterfactual increases of 13% to 17% if all states had restrictions similar to those in the 10 least-restrictive states.”
During the outset of the pandemic, red and blue states alike implemented closures of public space, masking requirements, and other pandemic measures, but jurisdictions quickly diverged as the pandemic wore on and the science around the coronavirus was politicized.
It led to striking disparities. By 2021, for example, California schools required teachers to be vaccinated or tested regularly in the classroom, while Florida threatened to withhold pay from schools with mask mandates.
Ruhm’s data captures similar differences.
The excess death rate in Massachusetts, the state with the tightest Covid restrictions during the study period, was less than one-fifth that of Mississippi, the state with the loosest rules.
The lessons from the early years of the pandemic will surely be on lawmakers’ minds, as the US grapples with an outbreak of bird flu on poultry and cattle farms as well as a summer surge in Covid cases, with wastewater data showing spikes across the country.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/covid-mask-vaccine-rules-study-b2586693.html....
US State Restrictions and Excess COVID-19 Pandemic Deaths
Question How did state restrictions affect the number of excess COVID-19 pandemic deaths?
Findings This cross-sectional analysis including all 50 US states plus the District of Columbia found that if all states had imposed COVID-19 restrictions similar to those used in the 10 most (least) restrictive states, excess deaths would have been an estimated 10% to 21% lower (13%-17% higher) than the 1.18 million that actually occurred during the 2-year period analyzed. Behavior changes were associated with 49% to 79% of this overall difference.
Meaning These findings indicate that collectively, stringent COVID-19 restrictions were associated with substantial decreases in excess deaths during the pandemic.
Abstract
Importance Despite considerable prior research, it remains unclear whether and by how much state COVID-19−related restrictions affected the number of pandemic deaths in the US.
Objective To determine how state restrictions were associated with excess COVID-19 deaths over a 2-year analysis period.
Design, Setting, and Participants This was a cross-sectional study using state-level mortality and population data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for 2020 to 2022 compared with baseline data for 2017 to 2019. Data included the total US population, with separate estimates for younger than 45 years, 45 to 64 years, 65 to 84 years, and 85 years or older used to construct age-standardized measures. Age-standardized excess mortality rates and ratios for July 2020 to June 2022 were calculated and compared with prepandemic baseline rates. Excess death rates and ratios were then regressed on single or multiple restrictions, while controlling for excess death rates or ratios, from March 2020 to June 2020. Estimated values of the dependent variables were calculated for packages of weak vs strong state restrictions. Behavioral changes were investigated as a potential mechanism for the overall effects. Data analyses were performed from October 1, 2023, to June 13, 2024.
Exposures Age and cause of death.
Main Outcomes Excess deaths, age-standardized excess death rates per 100 000, and excess death ratios.
Results Mask requirements and vaccine mandates were negatively associated with excess deaths, prohibitions on vaccine or mask mandates were positively associated with death rates, and activity limitations were mostly not associated with death rates. If all states had imposed restrictions similar to those used in the 10 most restrictive states, excess deaths would have been an estimated 10% to 21% lower than the 1.18 million that actually occurred during the 2-year analysis period; conversely, the estimates suggest counterfactual increases of 13% to 17% if all states had restrictions similar to those in the 10 least-restrictive states. The estimated strong vs weak state restriction difference was 271 000 to 447 000 deaths, with behavior changes associated with 49% to 79% of the overall disparity.
Conclusions and Relevance This cross-sectional study indicates that stringent COVID-19 restrictions, as a group, were associated with substantial decreases in pandemic mortality, with behavior changes plausibly serving as an important explanatory mechanism. These findings do not support the views that COVID-19 restrictions were ineffective. However, not all restrictions were equally effective; some, such as school closings, likely provided minimal benefit while imposing substantial cost.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2821581
