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Author Topic: 2020 Yukon River breakup is up - Place your guess for the breakup date here  (Read 2978 times)

ReverendMilkbone

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grixm

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Best to add a proper poll to the thread?

Anyway I have no idea but I'll guess April 26th

oren

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I have even less of an idea, but my official guess is May 5th. It's been a cold winter in northern NA if I am not mistaken.

kassy

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Earliest so far 2016 and 2019 which look different then 2020.
And a slight scoring complication too.  :)

2019   Apr 23   19:16
2018   May 8   13:25
2017   May 3   10:04
2016   Apr 23   11:15
2015   May 4   18:41
2014   May 2   13:18
2013   May 15   18:08
2012   May 1   09:42

Looking a bit at wettercentrale 2m temps going forward did not really help.

So i pick April 30th so it coincides with our next national holiday and for exact time i opt for 13:37 just because.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

wdmn

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I would also think this won't happen until May...

I'll take May 6.

edit
Time: 12:20
« Last Edit: April 16, 2020, 02:12:32 PM by wdmn »

blumenkraft

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May 7th, 00:18 (local time)
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

Sebastian Jones

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Ice pool tickets sales end at midnight Pacific summer time tonight.
But that won't really matter here, because the Yukon's lottery laws forbid sales outside of the Yukon....
Spring has been 4-5 degrees cooler than normal, which pretty well has to push breakup into May.
The weather, however, has swung to normal/above normal- 13 degrees and sunny this afternoon!
A careful examination  of the pics on the website will show that the snow is melting and that there is a bit more water appearing on the Klondike.
https://yukonriverbreakup.com/

charles_oil

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Could the thread be set up as a poll - just for fun !    BIG prizes from the new moderators maybe.... ?? ;)

kassy

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The fact that you need time too makes that a bit complicated.
If we all add times we will have just one winner (so we just need one prize  ;) ).

I can just make a list of all entrees?

We do miss some times though.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blumenkraft

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"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

gerontocrat

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Totally off-topic (?)....

I wanted the gold, and I sought it;
   I scrabbled and mucked like a slave.
Was it famine or scurvy—I fought it;
   I hurled my youth into a grave.
I wanted the gold, and I got it— 
   Came out with a fortune last fall,—
Yet somehow life’s not what I thought it,
   And somehow the gold isn’t all.

No! There’s the land. (Have you seen it?)
   It’s the cussedest land that I know,
From the big, dizzy mountains that screen it
   To the deep, deathlike valleys below.
Some say God was tired when He made it;
   Some say it’s a fine land to shun;
Maybe; but there’s some as would trade it
   For no land on earth—and I’m one.

You come to get rich (damned good reason);
   You feel like an exile at first;
You hate it like hell for a season,
   And then you are worse than the worst.
It grips you like some kinds of sinning;
   It twists you from foe to a friend;
It seems it’s been since the beginning;
   It seems it will be to the end.

I’ve stood in some mighty-mouthed hollow
   That’s plumb-full of hush to the brim;
I’ve watched the big, husky sun wallow
   In crimson and gold, and grow dim,
Till the moon set the pearly peaks gleaming,
   And the stars tumbled out, neck and crop;
And I’ve thought that I surely was dreaming,
   With the peace o’ the world piled on top.

The summer—no sweeter was ever;
   The sunshiny woods all athrill;
The grayling aleap in the river,
   The bighorn asleep on the hill.
The strong life that never knows harness;
   The wilds where the caribou call;
The freshness, the freedom, the farness—
   O God! how I’m stuck on it all.

The winter! the brightness that blinds you,
   The white land locked tight as a drum,
The cold fear that follows and finds you,
   The silence that bludgeons you dumb.
The snows that are older than history,
   The woods where the weird shadows slant;
The stillness, the moonlight, the mystery,
   I’ve bade ’em good-by—but I can’t.

There’s a land where the mountains are nameless,
   And the rivers all run God knows where;
There are lives that are erring and aimless,
   And deaths that just hang by a hair;
There are hardships that nobody reckons;
   There are valleys unpeopled and still;
There’s a land—oh, it beckons and beckons,
   And I want to go back—and I will.

They’re making my money diminish;
   I’m sick of the taste of champagne.
Thank God! when I’m skinned to a finish
   I’ll pike to the Yukon again.
I’ll fight—and you bet it’s no sham-fight;
   It’s hell!—but I’ve been there before;
And it’s better than this by a damsite—
   So me for the Yukon once more.

There’s gold, and it’s haunting and haunting;
   It’s luring me on as of old;
Yet it isn’t the gold that I’m wanting
   So much as just finding the gold.
It’s the great, big, broad land ’way up yonder,
   It’s the forests where silence has lease;
It’s the beauty that thrills me with wonder,
   It’s the stillness that fills me with peace.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

be cause

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:) .. pure gold .. :)


 p.s. .. May the 4th be with Yukon ..
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 05:10:15 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

VaughnAn

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My guess is April 29; Temperatures have been a little cooler in the area.  Average to slightly above normal temperatures on the horizon might cause breakup before May 1.

pearscot

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May 5th!!
pls!

jdallen

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This space for Rent.

kassy

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The prediction needs a time too especially with tied dates.

I will make a list of entries so far when i have caught up with all posts.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blumenkraft

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"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

Paddy

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 May 1st 12:00 GMT

kassy

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The list so far:

April 26th    no time grixm
April 28th    no time ReverendMilkbone
April 29th      15:21 VaughnAn
April 30th      13:37 kassy
May 1st         12:00 Paddy
May 2nd        18:00 CharlesOil
May 3rd         00:44 Tor Bejnar
May 3rd         13:45 Ranman99
May 3rd      no time Sebastian Jones
May 4th      no time be cause
May 5th      no time Oren
May 5th      no time pearscot
May 5th      no time jdallen
May 6th        12:20 wdmn
May 7th        00:18 blumenkraft

We need times for may 5th or it´s gonna be third prizes if the date checks out.

Added predictions up to and including post #25
« Last Edit: April 26, 2020, 11:47:55 AM by kassy »
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blumenkraft

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So, when it happens on the 6th, 23:40, will Wdmn win because he got the date right, or do i win because i'm closer?  ;D
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

kassy

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I guess by date but if it comes to that we might have to mail them to verify.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tor Bejnar

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May 3  00:44 [local - Yukon R. - time]  Tor

(that's right between May 1 and May 4.  And 44 was better than 45 will ever be.)
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Sebastian Jones

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If I had to pick one date, it would be May 3rd. However, I've not seen a breakup like this one since maybe 1979, which I don't really remember except the winter was similarly cold and snowy. Thus far, it has been fairly cool, but the snowpack being 150% of normal, there has been a lot of water coming down. The river has risen a LOT- enough that in an ordinary year, the ice would have moved already.
I crossed today, using the method we generally do at this season. Canoe across the open water to the solid ice, drag the canoe across to the other side and paddle to shore. The current in the open leads is FAST, much faster than usual.
No more crossing until the ice has moved.

https://yukonriverbreakup.com/

Sebastian Jones

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Here is the official government hydrologist report from the 23rd:
KLONDIKE RIVER AND YUKON RIVER ICE BREAKUP FORECAST
 
April 23st, 2020
 
Key message: Yukon River: Water level rising at 0.5 m per day / Breakup becomes possible despite strong ice cover / Moderate probability of high water levels for the next 5 days.
Klondike River:  Ice cover still unstable / Moderate probability of flooding for the next 2 days.
 
Conditions during the past months and weeks:
 
The Klondike watershed has been affected by some rain, air temperatures remained generally above freezing, and there were occasional strong sunshine. This has generated more runoff than anticipated. The Yukon River has been responding to increased discharge from several rivers (White, Pelly, Stewart, Teslin-Big Salmon) and weather conditions in southern Yukon continued to be conducive to moderate runoff (rain and melting snow) until now.
 
Current conditions:
 
Runoff is just stabilizing in small creeks and water levels are still rising in small and large rivers. Cold temperatures are supposed to affect the entire Territory shortly, but some forces are already acting on the ice cover of several rivers. Many rivers are very close to reaching a breakup threshold, including the Klondike River and the Yukon River in the vicinity of Dawson (most historical breakup events have occurred with a spring water level rise under 1 m and we are currently at 1.5 m). Ice movements are still detected in the Indian River, Sixty Mile River, Brig Creek and Nordenskiold River. Ice movements are unlikely in the Pelly and Stewart Rivers, based on current information.
 
Breakup forecast:
 
Klondike River: Ice movements and ice jamming can still happen during the next few days before the ice cover freezes in place. It is not impossible to see a dynamic breakup with an ice run and a major ice jam. Flooding probability is moderate and will remain so until Saturday.
 
Yukon River: The first water level variation associated with ice cover movements has been detected at Dawson. The ice cover, which remains relatively intact, may resist this first runoff event of the season. However, the river may also suffer several simultaneous small breakup events and a river scale breakup is also possible until early next week. Probability of a sudden rise in water levels caused by ice jamming is moderate in Dawson until early next week. In this case, the dike may assist.

charles_oil

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May 2nd 1800..... why not....

Ranman99

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May 3rd 13:45



Randy Fitton

kassy

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Added the new predictions to post #18.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

VaughnAn

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My guess is April 29; Temperatures have been a little cooler in the area.  Average to slightly above normal temperatures on the horizon might cause breakup before May 1.

Ok, I will go with April 29, 15:21.  What the heck.  I think it will be before the first of May in any case.  I have been wrong before.....

grixm

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The ice "tongue" in the foreground of the panorama photo broke clean off.

I still have hope for my April 26th guess (today) ;)


pearscot

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The list so far:

April 26th    no time grixm
April 28th    no time ReverendMilkbone
April 29th      15:21 VaughnAn
April 30th      13:37 kassy
May 1st         12:00 Paddy
May 2nd        18:00 CharlesOil
May 3rd         00:44 Tor Bejnar
May 3rd         13:45 Ranman99
May 3rd      no time Sebastian Jones
May 4th      no time be cause
May 5th      no time Oren
May 5th      no time pearscot - 1:00pm (afternoon)
May 5th      no time jdallen
May 6th        12:20 wdmn
May 7th        00:18 blumenkraft

We need times for may 5th or it´s gonna be third prizes if the date checks out.

Added predictions up to and including post #25

Okay, I have revised my time to when there will be copious amount of (hopefully) sunlight.
pls!

oren

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Whatever, put me down at 18:00 on the 5th...

kassy

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Looks like it was april 27th 5:00 pm? (see link in post 1)

No one guessed the correct date but the Reverend was closest.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

psymmo7

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No break up still hasn't occurred - despite the enormous amounts of water in the picture.

jdallen

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The list so far:
May 5th      no time Oren
May 5th      no time pearscot
May 5th      no time jdallen

I'll take 12:00 Noon
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kassy

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No break up still hasn't occurred - despite the enormous amounts of water in the picture.

Cool. I need it to hold out a bit more.  :)

#jdallen noted.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

ReverendMilkbone

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Doh! I'm out!

grixm

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Looks like a breakup has happened upstream, floes are floating freely on the webcam. Can't be long now until it spreads to where the measuring mechanism is located.

Sebastian Jones

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KLONDIKE RIVER AND YUKON RIVER ICE BREAKUP FORECAST
 
April 29st, 2020
 
Key messages:
 
Yukon River: Ice movements expected May 2nd - May 5th / Moderate ice jam intensity / Probability of flooding remains low for Dawson.
Klondike River:  Moderate ice jamming expected May 1st – May 4th / Minor flooding should be expected until May 6th.
 
Conditions during the past few days:
 
The entire Yukon River system has been stable in the last 4 days, with some water levels declining by a few cm. Cloudy conditions and a thin layer of new snow have prevented significant ice degradation as expected. However, occasional hours of sunshine have generated fast ice degradation at specific locations. As a result, the ice cover is getting closer to reaching its mobilization threshold in the Klondike River and in a 80 km-long section of the Yukon River upstream of Dawson.
 
Current conditions:
 
The ice cover on the Yukon River from Sixty Mile River to Moosehide is weak (with about 25% open water and 75% ice) and several small ice jams are reported. Local ice movements have been detected and observed in the last 24 hours. This means that the tripod could move by a few meters at any time now. However, upstream of the Stewart River and downstream of Moosehide the ice cover appears quite intact. The Yukon River will apparently not be free of ice for at least one more week. The Klondike River is only ice-covered at 50% with several small ice jams. Ice movements have been reported today and will continue to occur.
 
Breakup forecast:
 
Yukon River: The ice cover will continue to degrade slowly as the discharge starts to rising again over the weekend. The most likely scenario for the next few days includes ice movements from the Sixty Mile River intensifying over time and generating a moderate ice jam at Dawson or Moosehide between May 2nd and May 5th. The water level could rise suddenly by 2 to 3 m at Dawson. The presence of very strong ice at different locations added to probable average weather conditions make the breakup sequence difficult to predict afterward.
 
Klondike River: A number of small ice jams currently reported in the river will consolidated into fewer moderate ice jams from May 1st to May 4th. Minor flooding should be expected in the Rock Creek area until the final evacuation of residual ice jams, which is expected around May 6th.

Tor Bejnar

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https://yukonriverbreakup.com/

Does this mean its over?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

grixm

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https://yukonriverbreakup.com/

Does this mean its over?

No, I believe it will say the date next to the "Official 2020 breakup" instead of the "...".

It's broken up upstream but the tripod location which I believe is somewhere in this circled area, seems to still be intact.

nanning

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/Off-topic
From the image Tor posted above,
Is this our Sebastian Jones?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

oren

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I've been assuming it is, as our Sebastian Jones lives in Yukon.

charles_oil

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YO - if that's the case -


I am a happy punter.... where do I collect my prize (quickly before someone corrects and changes the answer) ?
 

Live in the moment!


Now to guess the Nares arch break-up.  :)

blumenkraft

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Tor Bejnar

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Thanks, Grixm.  The "statistics" page has this map supporting your 'red circle'.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

grixm

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It seems no one has posted it yet, but official breakup happened May 3rd, 17:03!

Tor Bejnar, Ranman99 and Sebastian Jones guessed the date correctly. Ranman99 was closest with the time 13:45.

blumenkraft

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Congrats, Ranman99!! \o/

Well done, Tor and Sebastian.
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

blumenkraft

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"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles