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Author Topic: 2020 Melting Season Predictions  (Read 4513 times)

Phil.

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #50 on: May 23, 2020, 02:57:43 PM »
Hopefully at the end of this month Juan will open 2 polls, one of which will be the NSIDC September monthly average.

Attached are two graphs

- the extent plume from now to end of September - using daily change from now of the last 10 years, which shows how in September extent staying close to and just below 4.5 million km2.

Although titled 2019, I assume it should be 2020.

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #51 on: May 23, 2020, 04:58:28 PM »
ps: I'm feeling smug - I wrote the following sentence on the 11th May...
Watch this space for the unfolding of the Great 2020 Mid-May Melting Event ?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg263728.html#msg263728

And this is what happens when the people making the predictions actually know what they're talking about! Good job, Gerontocrat!
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #52 on: May 23, 2020, 05:52:10 PM »
ps: I'm feeling smug - I wrote the following sentence on the 11th May...
Watch this space for the unfolding of the Great 2020 Mid-May Melting Event ?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg263728.html#msg263728

And this is what happens when the people making the predictions actually know what they're talking about! Good job, Gerontocrat!
Having been quite unprepared for the extreme melting on Greenland on 22nd May, (I predicted continuing modest melt), I think it's more a case of that even "The Farmers' Almanac" gets it right sometimes.
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Phoenix

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #53 on: May 24, 2020, 12:04:53 PM »

The diminished aerosol content due to Covid is a wildcard this year, so I'll guess 3.75M km2 at the minimum.

Revising upward after more bench marking vs 2019 and seeing that things are looking pretty solid on the Pacific side. 4.1M km2 for JAXA SIE.

oren

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #54 on: May 24, 2020, 12:38:13 PM »
P.A, do you want the poll to be removed, or activated?

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #55 on: May 24, 2020, 02:50:30 PM »
P.A, do you want the poll to be removed, or activated?

Removed, please.
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oren

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #56 on: May 24, 2020, 03:24:13 PM »
Done, sorry hadn't noticed this until Niall pointed it out.

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #57 on: May 25, 2020, 01:04:10 AM »
Hey Friv, you hear this? Melt ponds appearing almost instantly. I told you it will happen in 2..3 weeks - exactly 3 weeks ago (this post), when you said it'll be in a month. See, things go wild this time, you see what happens with albedo and i bet you know how it goes.

Another accurate prediction! You lot are good at this~
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johnm33

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #58 on: May 28, 2020, 11:16:37 AM »
^11 " the major consequence of increasing tidal action is greater recycling of Arctic waters south, if the flow of water south through Fram forces inflows from the Pacific then Beaufort will cycle anti[counter] clockwise and free up the channels of the CAA allowing the release of much of the freshwater lens. If the forcing is of Atlantic waters then these will cycle through to the ESS and a river of weak ice will move towards the pole from there, but this will induce more water from the Atlantic to flow south towards Banks is. again risking opening up the channels through the CAA."
^45 "the high has been pushing near surface waters through Fram fairly rapidly, the easiest route for flow is aligned with Amundsen basin and from the other side of Lomonosv between 140E-180 so a remote possibility of a +[near] pole hole. Come tuesday we should see Amundsen gulf begin to clear and that forcing in turn push the ice towards Chukchi, then any thick ice along the CAA sucked into Beaufort over the following days.
ATM the incoming AW looks like it'll head towards both Kara and Ellesmere"
The flow through CAA has begun.

In Baffin and Foxe basin the less saline result comes out at near -1.8c. once a flow is established it tends to persist, as Bruce pointed out the bouys in Beaufort indicate warming implying imo increased inflow from the Atlantic side.
So with cold water flowing into Baffin>Hudson expect a prolonged cold spell which'll probably extend down the east coast over time. With more 'high' tidal forcing onto/into Barents the 'low' tidal forcing has to draw more Arctic waters south this in turn must be replenished by the next high so unless some atmospheric forcing brings a halt to the process, the Atlantic penetration towards Banks will accelerate and with it the flow through to Baffin/Foxe. Implicit in this process is the loss of any thick ice 'resident' or arriving on/in the CAA coastchannels and an increasingly free c/wise rotation of the ice.
The Atlantic water flowing through Barents and onwards towards Chukchi finally slows and settles mainly in Makorov basin but Chukchi abyssal plain too, and from here a return flow moves in the direction of Fram, i think this flow caused the thinning near the pole around the 22nd and a similar but more pronounced thinning will occur around the 5th and subsequent thinning will occur on the 'Fram' side of the pole.
The smoothness of some of the coastlines of the channels through CAA suggest deep permafrost which will also suffer from erosion as the passing currents rises above 0c.

SimonF92

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #59 on: May 31, 2020, 09:36:25 PM »
Interesting figure (couldnt find source article unfortunately)
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #60 on: May 31, 2020, 10:16:31 PM »
This picture has been presented in this forum before.
It is based on the projections made in 2012 where an ever faster decrease was assumed.
But then came the increases in 2013 and 2014.
Therefore this picture is just an illustration of what could have happened if the disastrous 2012 melting season would have had even worse follow-ups in the next years.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

blumenkraft

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #61 on: May 31, 2020, 10:21:29 PM »
Interesting figure (couldnt find source article unfortunately)

This is the original source i think, Simon >> https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/
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Elijah McClain

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #62 on: May 31, 2020, 11:38:10 PM »
3.0 M km2 ... However, the Lena River may surprise.
3.6 M km2. She did it. :) Though even in this case 1st lowest has a good chance to happen.

SimonF92

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Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« Reply #63 on: June 01, 2020, 10:45:41 PM »
 Good information, thanks to you both.
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