The linked reference provides a valuable discussion of the relationship between ENSO and SAM and their associated predictability:
Lim, Eun-Pa, Harry H. Hendon, Harun Rashid, 2013: Seasonal Predictability of the Southern Annular Mode due to Its Association with ENSO. J. Climate, 26, 8037–8054. doi:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00006.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00006.1Abstract for the paper: "Predictability of the southern annular mode (SAM) for lead times beyond 1–2 weeks has traditionally been considered to be low because the SAM is regarded as an internal mode of variability with a typical decorrelation time of about 10 days. However, the association of the SAM with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) suggests the potential for making seasonal predictions of the SAM. In this study the authors explore seasonal predictability and the predictive skill of SAM using observations and retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology dynamical seasonal forecast system [the Predictive Ocean and Atmosphere Model for Australia, version 2 (POAMA2)].
Based on the observed seasonal relationships of the SAM with tropical sea surface temperatures, two distinctive periods of high seasonal predictability are suggested: austral late autumn to winter and late spring to early summer. Predictability of the SAM in the austral cold seasons stems from the association of the SAM with warm-pool (or Modoki/central Pacific) ENSO, whereas predictability in the austral warm seasons stems from the association of the SAM with cold-tongue (or eastern Pacific) ENSO.
Using seasonal hindcasts for 1980–2010 from POAMA2, it is shown that the observed relationship between SAM and ENSO is faithfully depicted and SST variations associated with ENSO are skillfully predicted. Consequently, POAMA2 can skillfully predict the phase and amplitude of seasonal anomalies of the SAM in early summer and early winter for at least one season in advance. Zero-lead monthly forecasts of the SAM are furthermore shown to be highly skillful in almost all months, which is ascribed to predictability stemming from observed atmospheric initial conditions."
The following website has a link to a pdf of the PowerPoint presentation for this paper at the AMS conference:
https://ams.confex.com/ams/94Annual/webprogram/Paper242257.htmlAbstract for the presentation: "The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the dominant mode of variability of the extratropical atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) throughout different time-scales, ranging from weeks to decades. The positive index of SAM is characterised by lower than average pressure over the high latitudes and higher than average pressure over the mid latitudes, and its variability explains ~30% of the total variance of the circulation over the SH extratropics. SAM is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics as evidenced by its typical decorrelation time scale of ~10 days. Nevertheless, in the current study we demonstrate that seasonal variability of SAM can be predicted with good skill (proportion correct > 60%, correlation > 0.4) at lead times of up to 3 months by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical seasonal forecast system, POAMA.
The predictability of seasonal SAM stems from its relationship with tropical sea surface temperatures associated with ENSO. Our study shows two distinctive periods of high predictability: the SH late autumn to winter and the SH late spring to early summer. Predictability of the SAM in austral winter stems from the association of the SAM with warm-pool (or Modoki/central Pacific) El Niño/La Niña, whereas predictability in austral early summer stems from the association of the SAM with cold-tongue (or eastern Pacific) ENSO. As POAMA is capable of predicting ENSO with high skill and simulating the SAM and ENSO relationship, it demonstrates good skill in predicting the phase and amplitude of seasonal anomalies of the SAM beyond a season in advance for austral early summer and late autumn."