Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Cold War II  (Read 2621 times)

igs

  • Guest
Re: World War Trump
« Reply #50 on: June 09, 2020, 03:16:57 AM »
So does anyone still believe that those trillions went to the common people? Or to the stock market and the one percent?

Americannots are probably the biggest idiots in human history... They are being robbed blind, and they don't even realize it...

Watch Trump Get Reelected!
FASCISM RULES AGAIN!


They needed the lockdown to dodge the bubble to burst but in fact they miscaluclated and the bubble is still inflated. It will burst from 2024/25 onward, only then we shall face way deeper cuts as well as way more unrests than we see right now.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: World War Trump
« Reply #51 on: June 09, 2020, 03:22:09 AM »
Pressures increasing on Indonesia and Malaysia in the South China Sea

By Ben Westcott and Brad Lendon, CNN
Updated 1410 GMT (2210 HKT) June 8, 2020

Hong Kong (CNN)Chinese and Malaysian vessels were locked in a high-stakes standoff for more than one month earlier this year, near the island of Borneo in the South China Sea.

The Malaysian-authorized drill ship, the West Capella, was looking for resources in waters also claimed by Beijing, when a Chinese survey vessel, accompanied by coast guard ships, sailed into the area and began conducting scans, according to satellite images analyzed by the Asia Maritime Transparency Institute (AMTI).

Malaysia deployed naval vessels to the area, which were later backed by US warships that had been on joint exercises in the South China Sea.

Beijing claimed it was conducting "normal activities in waters under Chinese jurisdiction," but for years Chinese vessels have been accused of hounding countries who try to explore for resources in waters that China claims as its own.

Now, experts say the Chinese ships are adopting increasingly forceful tactics, which risks sparking new conflicts with major regional powers such as Malaysia and Indonesia.

Greg Poling, director of the AMTI, said the countries are more important than ever as Chinese ships expand their reach in the region, mostly due to the advanced construction of Beijing's artificial islands in the South China Sea.

"(The islands) provide forward basing for Chinese ships, effectively turning Malaysia and Indonesia into front line states," Poling said. "On any given day, there about dozen coast guard ships buzzing around the Spratly Islands, and about a hundred fishing boats, ready to go."

Nine-dash line

The South China Sea is one of the most hotly contested regions in the world, with competing claims from China, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan and Indonesia.

Beijing's territorial claims, known as the nine-dash line -- owing to the markings printed on Chinese maps of the region -- are by far the largest and encompass almost the entirety of the sea, from Hainan Island down to the top of Indonesia. China's claims have no basis under international law and were found to be invalid in a 2016 international court ruling.

Despite this, from about 2015 the Chinese government began to bolster its territorial ambitions by building artificial islands on reefs and shoals in the South China Sea, and then militarizing them with aircraft strips, harbors and radar facilities.

"These (islands) are bristling with radar and surveillance capabilities, they see everything that goes on in the South China Sea," Poling said. "In the past, China didn't know where you were drilling. Now they certainly do."

Experts say Beijing has created an armada of coast guard and Chinese fishing vessels that can be deployed in the South China Sea to harass other claimant's ships or sail in politically sensitive areas.

Growing aggression

The confrontation over the Malaysian drill ship wasn't the first act of aggression by the Chinese government in the region in 2020.

The year began with a standoff in the Natuna Islands on the far southern end of the South China Sea, territory claimed by China and Indonesia. Vessels from both countries were involved in the standoff, which began when Chinese fishing vessels started to operate inside Indonesia's exclusive economic zone.

Eventually, Indonesia deployed F-16 fighters and naval ships to the islands and President Joko Widodo personally flew to the area, in an unusual show of strength from the country.

In April, a Chinese maritime surveillance vessel rammed and sank a Vietnamese fishing boat near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.

The act prompted Vietnam to send a diplomatic note to the United Nations restating its sovereignty over its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang responded by saying China would take "all measures necessary" to safeguard Beijing's interests in the region.

"I want to stress this: attempts by any country to negate in any means China's sovereignty, rights and interests in the South China Sea and to reinforce its own illegal claim are bound to be fruitless," Geng said.

Insecurity

Beijing has a long history of harassing other countries' vessels in the South China Sea, mostly from Vietnam and the Philippines and also occasionally from Malaysia and Indonesia.

In the past, Chinese diplomats have helped soothed aggrieved parties, but experts say the fallout from the coronavirus and the rise of so-called "wolf warrior" diplomacy in Beijing have removed any circuit breaker in the relationship between China and its regional rivals.

"What has changed is that they've really taken the glove off of the fist diplomatically. The statements are brash and unhelpful," said Poling.


Experts said Beijing's growing forcefulness in the region is partly driven by the global coronavirus pandemic, which has dealt a heavy blow to China's rapid economic growth and damaged the country's international reputation.

At the meeting of its parliament in May, the Chinese government didn't set a target for annual GDP growth for the first time in years, a sign that it is concerned about falling economic performance.

At the same time, tensions are rising with the United States and Europe over Beijing's role in containing the initial outbreak and whether it gave the world enough time to respond to the pandemic, which has killed more than 380,000 people.

Concerned about appearing like its grip on power is slipping, the ruling Communist Party is doubling down on its rhetoric and on its nationalistic agenda, which includes control of the South China Sea, experts said.

Beijing is keen to foster a narrative that the US is retreating as a global power to solidify its hold on the region, said Ian Storey, senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

"It will want to show Southeast Asian claimants that American military power is on the decline and its commitment to the region is waning," Storey said. "(It will want to show that) the economic problems that China is facing will not impact its policy on the South China Sea."

So far, Malaysia and Indonesia have tried to avoid letting South China Sea dominate their relationship with China, but with Beijing marking its territory in the region, the days of quiet diplomacy might not last forever.

"At what level of aggression does it become impossible to ignore? ... At what point do they add their voice to the criticism that you've been getting for years and years from Hanoi and Manila?" AMTI's Poling said.

Free-for-all

Facing an entrenched Chinese presence on their doorstep, now might seem like the time for Southeast Asian nations to band together and face down Beijing's presence in the region.

But Storey said with regional powers preoccupied with coronavirus as well as their own economic and political crises, any hope of unity in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was unlikely.

"No matter how hard China pushes I don't think we're going to see the ASEAN members coalesce and present that strong united front against China," he said.

"I think going forward in the next six months, towards the end of 2020, we can expect China to double down on its assertive behavior in the South China Sea."

Malaysia has long worked to balance the benefits of a close relationship with China with running its own independent foreign policy, AMTI's Poling said, which is why previous clashes with Chinese vessels in Malaysian waters were kept out of the media as much as possible.

Indonesia has in the past opened fire on Chinese fishing vessels that failed to leave its waters, and President Widodo's tough behavior in January showed he will not sit by while Beijing moves into the Natuna Islands.

But experts say China won't be easily deterred.

"Beijing believes it can wear down Indonesian opposition; and eventually Indonesia, much like Malaysia, will realize that it has little choice but to accommodate China's presence," Foreign Policy Research Institute senior fellow Felix Chang wrote in January.

Still, there is risk too for the Chinese government. The United States is already increasing its freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, holding half as many in the first five months of 2020 as it did in the whole of last year.

Washington is also working to directly support Southeast Asian nations in the South China Sea. The Malaysian Navy received its first batch of surveillance drones from the US in May.

And, during the West Capella's operations, US Navy warships performed what the US Navy called "presence operations" near the drill ship while it was being monitored by the Chinese vessels.

"The US supports the efforts of our allies and partners in the lawful pursuit of their economic interests," Vice Adm. Bill Merz, commander of the US 7th Fleet, said in a statement at the time.

Speaking in a public lecture in May, James Holmes, a professor at the US Naval War College and former Navy officer, said that as Beijing pushes harder in the South China Sea, the US may look like the better bet for a steady friend.

"I think China has actually seriously overplayed its hand by being so bullying and by being so aggressive," Holmes said.

"That starts driving together allies that are worried about Chinese aggression ... The more China pushes the more coalition partners are likely to unite and push back."

Any push back could cost Beijing economically.

China has close trade ties with many of its regional neighbors, such as the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, and needs them for parts of its international agenda such as its much trumpeted Belt and Road Initiative -- the country's interlinking web of regional trade deals and infrastructure projects.

"I think there's already been a lot of unease in the region about how China has used Covid-19 to push its claims in the South China Sea," said Storey, from ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

"China won't want to completely destroy its relations with Southeast Asia by pushing too hard."
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Cold War II
« Reply #52 on: June 09, 2020, 03:35:37 AM »
They needed the lockdown to dodge the bubble to burst but in fact they miscaluclated and the bubble is still inflated. It will burst from 2024/25 onward, only then we shall face way deeper cuts as well as way more unrests than we see right now.
They're robbing America Blind Igs. While nobody is paying attention... It's all about getting Trump reelected. Just keep em busy with other stuff, while they're sucking your pockets dry...

Don't get me wrong! What's happening now is awesome. People are finally standing up to... to what? Racism? Not fascism?

It's all about fear Igs. Make people scared, and they'll swallow just about anything...

Cold war
Millennium bug
Terrorism
And soon in a theater near you: Cold War II

I should change the title of this thread, because it's not going to be a "real" war. It'll be a new cold war, so they can scare everyone again for the next few decades...

And all the while, they're robbing you blind!

(I'm a little drunk. Hope I still made sense)
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: World War Trump
« Reply #53 on: June 09, 2020, 03:39:44 AM »
Why isn't this thread showing up on the frontpage anymore?
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7751
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1128
  • Likes Given: 512
Re: World War Trump
« Reply #54 on: June 09, 2020, 09:47:27 PM »
Because of the word 'Trump'.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Cold War II
« Reply #55 on: June 09, 2020, 10:31:10 PM »
Ah ok. Understandable... Maybe better to change the title to Cold War II then? Or do you have another suggestion?
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: World War Trump
« Reply #56 on: June 09, 2020, 10:39:32 PM »
I think he was joking, FG!  ;D

First, the new title would be welcomed by me. It really is a more accurate title.

And about your question, i have no idea. Perhaps because it's in the 'off-topic' section?

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: World War Trump
« Reply #57 on: June 10, 2020, 12:52:39 AM »
It showed up before, so I don't know what happened.
Can you change the title, or only Neven? It's a topic that is worth keeping IMHO, because a new cold war is what we're heading for it seems.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/06/08/us-rejects-china-maritime-claims-in-south-china-sea/

Quote
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Australian counterpart, Scott Morrison, on Thursday agreed to give each other access to their military bases.


If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #58 on: June 10, 2020, 08:40:09 AM »

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2386
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1144
  • Likes Given: 991
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #59 on: June 10, 2020, 01:19:59 PM »
So what hot war between cold war 1 and 2 did i miss?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #60 on: June 11, 2020, 06:38:14 PM »
So what hot war between cold war 1 and 2 did i miss?
The war on "terror"?

Thanks BL! This is better. :)
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #61 on: June 12, 2020, 12:05:28 AM »
US sends drones over disputed waters as Taiwan invasion fears soar

By worldabcnews - June 10, 2020

The move underlines the strategic importance of the waterway, as well as the seriousness with which Washington regards China‘s belligerent attitude towards it. The Air Force is flying Global Hawk drone missions from an airbase in Japan called Yokata in a move aimed at boosting US presence in the area. Scott Winship, vice president, Northrop, explained: “Now our processing capability is so fast and we have so much storage that we are meeting that mission.

“Algorithms run fast enough so that if we watch our track, it will dump that data if nothing is happening.

“We only concentrate on the things we want to concentrate on.”

Mr Winship added: “We have finally broken through the barrier of the amount of processing power you can have and get information processing aboard the airplane.

“We can hit thousands of targets in one pass.”

Additionally, the B-1Bs are flying out of Guam, and conducting specific missions over the South China Sea.

Last month Pacific Air Forces, a Major Command of the United States Air Force, tweeted confirmation that two bombers had completed one such mission.

The move demonstrated the Air Force’s ability to operate wherever international law permitted “at the time and tempo of our choosing,” Pacific Air Forces added.

Speaking today, NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg referenced the region while urging member states to focus on the “resilience of critical infrastructure” against a backdrop of Chinese investment in Europe.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today: “This is not about a global presence of Nato but it is about the global approach of Nato because China is coming closer to us – we see that in the Arctic, we see they are heavily investing in critical infrastructure in Europe, and we see of course China also operating in cyberspace.

“So this is not about deploying Nato into the South China Sea but responding to the fact that China is coming closer to us.”


Tory MP Tobias Ellwood, a member of the recently formed China Research Group, voiced similar concerns last week.

He told Express.co.uk: “There are three areas where China is advancing: economically, through the One Belt, One Road initiative, technologically, through its push with Huawei, tying people into that, and then, of course, militarily.

“Ultimately they are creating fortresses across the South China Sea and nobody is challenging them on that, despite international law saying otherwise.

“Once they have got a military presence there they then can use that to expand their own footprint to challenge anybody that comes through.

“It’s getting more and more aggressive – we send ships through occasionally but they are treated with such hostility that you can easily see a minor conflict spiralling out of control.”

Taiwan, which Beijing continues to regard as being part of China, is widely regarded as a particular flashpoint.

Yesterday, Taiwan’s air force warned off several Chinese fighter jets which briefly entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone to its southwest on Tuesday, the defence ministry said.

The Su-30 fighters, some of China’s most advanced jets, were given verbal warnings to leave and Taiwanese air force jets “drove away” the intruders, the ministry added.


Taiwan has complained that China, which claims the democratic island as its own, has stepped up military activities in recent months, menacing Taiwan even as the world deals with the coronavirus pandemic.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3441
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 577
  • Likes Given: 281
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #62 on: June 13, 2020, 11:16:08 PM »
The scary thing about this is that the smallest spark can set it off. In 1914 an Archduke's chauffeur made a wrong turn and a high school student decided to shoot said Archduke. Interesting times ensued.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #63 on: June 14, 2020, 02:01:09 AM »
True, but we live in the atomic age now. I don't think anyone would want to escalate a conflict that quickly these days. At least I hope so...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2386
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1144
  • Likes Given: 991
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #64 on: June 14, 2020, 05:11:29 PM »
In 1914 an Archduke's chauffeur made a wrong turn and a high school student decided to shoot said Archduke. Interesting times ensued.

That sounds wrong. Basically there were 6 assassins. Ironically Yugoslav nationalists. And they almost hit him with a grenade before.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavrilo_Princip

In order to avoid the city centre, General Oskar Potiorek decided that the royal car should travel straight along the Appel Quay to the hospital. However, Potiorek forgot to inform the driver,

Let´s not blame the only guy on board with an honest job.  ;)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3441
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 577
  • Likes Given: 281
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #65 on: June 14, 2020, 09:48:57 PM »
IIRC Japan’s war with China in 1937 (arguably the start of WWII) began because a soldier had to pee.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2386
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1144
  • Likes Given: 991
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #66 on: June 14, 2020, 10:22:52 PM »
Did you see it?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3441
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 577
  • Likes Given: 281
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #67 on: June 15, 2020, 02:04:14 AM »
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Polo_Bridge_Incident
The Generational Dynamics forum gave the detail of the reason why the soldier was AWOL.

In yet another example, I once read a war of ancient Greece started because a soldier took out his sword to kill a snake when the two armies were "nose to nose".
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #68 on: June 15, 2020, 02:59:30 AM »
China-US Military Confrontation in the South China Sea: Fact and Fiction
The China-U.S. rivalry in the South China Sea is certainly growing, but war is still some way off.

June 12, 2020

No one doubts that the military competition and frictions are real and serious between China and the United States in the South China Sea, when they have rivalrous intentions, tit-for-tat strategies, and daily operational confrontations. China is accused of coercing U.S. allies and partners, militarizing disputed features, and seeking regional hegemony, and the United States is considered to be playing the South China Sea card and containing China’s rise as a maritime power. In the context of overall intensified strategic competition between the two countries, the South China Sea is even less likely to be an exception.

But the question remains: how fierce will the competition be? When every day is filled with news of maritime standoffs between China and the United States, many may wonder, will China and the U.S. slip into military conflict?

Both sides have reasons to maintain and expand their military presence in the South China Sea. China is the largest littoral state of the South China Sea, and has important interests at stake: territorial sovereignty, jurisdictional waters, and sea lanes of communication. With China’s military modernization, it is natural that more and more military platforms are active in the area. Meanwhile the United States thinks highly of maritime predominance, freedom of navigation, and security commitments to regional states. Thus, since the end of World War II, the United States has maintained the most powerful military presence and executed a variety of complex military operations in the South China Sea.

For a long time after World War II, due to China’s weak naval and air forces, there were not many chances for Chinese and American military forces to encounter each other at sea. However, much has changed in the past decade. On the one hand, China’s capacity has rapidly increased, and the progress of the navy and air force is particularly impressive. On the other hand, the United States has grown increasingly worried about China’s rising power and significantly strengthened its naval and air presence since 2009. U.S. aircraft sorties increased by 100 percent to about 1,500, and surface ship presence increased by 60 percent to around 1,000 ship days per year. In this context, frequent military- to-military encounters are inevitable.

Neither side is comfortable with the changing situation. The U.S. military is used to being unparalleled and unchallengeable in the South China Sea and is not ready to accommodate China’s maritime rise. Although the People’s Liberation Army is already very strong materially, it is still a novice spiritually and in the process of learning how to interact with its American counterparts as a mature power.

But neither side seems to have much to offer other than peaceful coexistence. If both sides develop normally, in terms of power, the future of the South China Sea would be a bipolar region, regardless what kind of intentions they have. Moreover, most countries in the region are reluctant to take sides in the China-U.S. power competition. Therefore, it is hard for either side to re-establish a dominant order here.

As the power distribution becomes more balanced, the idea of a managed military conflict is fanciful. One side’s provocation will inevitably invite the other’s retaliation, where spiral escalation is highly possible. Considering that both sides have so many weapon platforms and both are major nuclear powers, the feasibility of a military solution has greatly diminished.

The China-U.S. rivalry in the South China Sea is certainly growing, but war is still some way off. There are several maritime encounters between the two sides every day, and thousands every year. Most of them are professional and safe; only a few have involved some risks. The recent pandemic has made both countries and militaries more sensitive, which, to some extent, has heightened the tension of the situation.

Because of COVID-19, China and the United States are more concerned and anxious about each other. In addition to maintaining daily operations in the western Pacific, both sides have some new worries. The United States is concerned that China would take advantage of the temporary power vacuum; thus it has deliberately shown more force and given China more diplomatic pressure. China feels that Washington’s South China Sea policy is increasingly desperate to the point that, even during the pandemic, the United States has not forgotten to provoke China. Beijing is also convinced that the U.S., motivated by power competition, is focusing on China’s activities and ignoring the actions of other claimants.

From mid-April to early May, the U.S. Navy dispatched several warships, including USS America LHA-6, to the so-called standoff area between the Haiyang Dizhi 8 and the West Capella to deter China’s operations. The PLA Navy was believed to have a similar number of warships there at the same time, which aroused heated discussion among the media and experts. Another less publicized but more intense case was the reconnaissance and counter-reconnaissance of China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning formation when it was conducting open sea cross-region mobile training while followed by American warships and multiple military aircraft. An anonymous PLA Navy officer revealed that the confrontation was so intense that one U.S. warship even once came within 100 meters of the Chinese carrier.

Even so, both sides have remained largely professional and restrained. In fact, neither the Chinese military nor the American military has increased its activity significantly compared with the same period of 2019, despite the impression given by most media reports and expert commentaries.

The problem is that these operations are over-exposed and over-focused. In the backdrop of power competition, especially amid the pandemic, in order to show their strength and determination, U.S. forces have given undue prominence to covering and publicizing military activities, giving the media and the public a lot to discuss and imagine. There are some hawks in both countries who take advantage of this and exaggerate the situation. Although most countries including the South China Sea claimants, do not want to see China-U.S. military conflict, some individual countries are indeed rejoicing over the growing competition between China and the United States, which may lead to some opportunity for them to expand. China-U.S. military confrontation or even war in the South China Sea has a huge market.

China and the United States are, of course, preparing for any kind of military conflict and the worst scenarios in the South China Sea; however, there is no indication that the two sides want to resolve their contradictions by using force strategically or operationally — despite the repeated war rhetoric from some senior American officials. In daily military interactions, there are really increasing risks, but in the absence of a subjective desire for conflict, these risks are highly likely to be controlled.

The most important thing for the Chinese and American militaries to prevent is miscalculation, considering the relatively backward or ineffective crisis management mechanisms of the two countries even compared with Soviet-U.S. and then Russia-U.S. military relations.

In addition, we need to let professionals do their work. The China-U.S. military rivalry has been unduly influenced by the media, commentators, and some politicians, which amplifies the intensity of the competition and is likely to lead to self-fulfilling prophecies.

Both Chinese and the U.S. militaries need to remain competitive and professional, keeping politics and public opinion in check. After all, if there were to be war, it would be the front-line commanders and sailors who bear the brunt of it; others would be mere bystanders.

Hu Bo is Director of the Center for Maritime Strategy Research and Research Professor at the Institute of Ocean Research, Peking University. He is also Director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI). His most recent publications include China’s Sea Power in the Post Mahan Era by China Ocean Press (2018) and Chinese Maritime Power in the 21st Century by Routledge (2019).
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #69 on: June 15, 2020, 03:21:06 AM »
US Navy deploys three aircraft carriers to Pacific against China
By Peter Symonds, 13 June 2020
World Socialist Web Site

For the first time in three years, the US Navy has mobilised three aircraft carrier strike groups to the Pacific as a part of a provocative military build-up against China. The deployments underscore the strategic shift by the Pentagon from the so-called “war on terror” to great power competition that heightens the danger of conflict between nuclear-armed powers.

As of Thursday, the nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and their associated groups of destroyers and cruisers set to sea in a massive show of force. While there are no details of their planned movements and exercises, all will be operating in the Western Pacific in strategically sensitive waters off the Chinese mainland.

USS Theodore Roosevelt, which has been sidelined in Guam after a major outbreak of COVID-19, is now operating in waters off Guam. The USS Nimitz strike group left the US West Coast earlier this week while the USS Ronald Reagan together with its battle group has left its base in Japan and is currently operating in the Philippine Sea.

In comments to the Associated Press about the deployments, Rear Admiral Stephen Koehler, director of operations for the US Indo-Pacific Command, specifically referred to China as the chief target. He accused Beijing of slowly and methodically building up military outposts in the South China Sea and putting missile and electronic warfare systems on its islets.

Koehler declared that the US “ability to be present in a strong way is part of the competition… you’ve got to be present to win when you’re competing.” He then boasted: “Carriers and carrier strike groups writ large are phenomenal symbols of American naval power. I really am pretty fired up that we’ve got three of them at the moment.”

The dispatch of three aircraft carrier battle groups to waters near China comes as the Trump administration has deliberately inflamed tensions with Beijing by blaming it for the global COVID-19 pandemic. Without a shred of evidence, Trump has accused China of covering up the outbreak and given credence to far-right conspiracy theories that the virus originated in a Chinese laboratory.

While Trump is attempting to deflect attention from his own criminal negligence in dealing with the pandemic, the scapegoating of China is part of Washington’s aggressive efforts that began under President Obama’s “pivot to Asia” to undermine and confront Beijing. US strategists regard China as the chief obstacle to American imperialism halting its historic decline and reasserting its global hegemony.


Under President Obama, the Pentagon launched a “rebalance” to the Indo-Pacific to station 60 percent of its naval assets and warplanes in the region by 2020. As part of this strategy, the US has been restructuring its extensive bases in Japan, South Korea and Guam, forging basing agreements throughout the region, including in Australia, Singapore, India and Sri Lanka, and strengthening military alliances and strategic partnerships.

In the current standoff with China, the Trump administration has encouraged India’s dangerous confrontation with China along their contested border. Both sides have mobilised thousands of troops who face each other at several points along their mountainous border areas. The two regional powers, both of which are nuclear-armed, fought a border war in 1962 and the border disputes have never been resolved.

The deployment of aircraft carrier strike groups is just part of the US build-up of military forces in the Western Pacific. Fox News reported this week that the US Air Force has deployed nuclear-capable B-1B Lancer bombers to Guam last month that have been conducting operations over the South China Sea. The Air Force has also sent long-range, high altitude Global Hawk drones to Japan to carry out surveillance in the Western Pacific.

Under the Trump administration, the US Navy has stepped up its so-called “freedom of navigation” operations that deliberately violate territorial waters claimed by China around its islets in the South China Sea. In late April, the Navy carried out two South China Sea operations in as many days followed by another on May 7. On May 28, the guided missile destroyer USS Mustin passed within the 12-nautical-mile territorial limit of Woody Island in the Paracel group that has been occupied by China for decades.

Washington’s claim that it is simply asserting “freedom of navigation” is a fraud. The US Navy is determined to maintain a presence in the South China Sea which is critical to the Pentagon’s AirSea Battle plans for a massive assault on Chinese military bases in the event of war. The South China Sea is adjacent to sensitive Chinese military bases on Hainan Island, including for its nuclear submarines.

The US Navy has also increased its transits of the Taiwan Strait that lies between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan which China claims as part of its territory. On June 5, the guided missile destroyer USS Russell passed through the narrow strait—the second US warship to do so in three weeks and the seventh this year. The Chinese state-owned media responded by branding the transit as “another provocative move.”

Taiwan is another sensitive flash point that the Trump administration is deliberately inflaming. While not officially abrogating its “One China” policy recognising Beijing as the legitimate government of all China including Taiwan, Trump has steadily strengthened diplomatic and strategic relations with Taipei. He has backed Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen whose Democratic Progressive Party advocates a more independent role for Taiwan from China.

The carrier group deployments follow a further escalation of tensions between the US and China when Taiwan’s defence ministry allowed a US Navy cargo plane to make an unprecedented flight through Taiwanese air space on its way from Okinawa to Thailand. Beijing responded by condemning the incident as “provocative.”

The Trump administration’s dangerous escalation of military tensions with China coincides with the global crisis of capitalism revealed and accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Like his counterparts around the world, Trump is not only preparing class war against the working class, but is driven to force rival powers to bear the lion’s share of the burden of the economic crisis.

The reckless US military intervention in areas of key strategic importance for China risks a confrontation, whether by accident or design, that could rapidly spiral out of control into a catastrophic war that would envelop the world.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #70 on: June 15, 2020, 08:48:25 AM »
"The New Red Scare" would have been another good title for this thread BTW.

We do see a lot of anti-China propaganda, but we don't see certain elements of Cold War I like the isolation or the arms race.

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6211
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2257
  • Likes Given: 1898
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #71 on: June 15, 2020, 11:55:51 AM »
Yeah, I think "The New Red Scare" is a more appropriate description, coupled with the Orange Idiot.
I do expect that eventually China will be the world's top superpower. Hopefully humanity will become more unified and such terms will be obsolete, but I kinda doubt it.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #72 on: June 15, 2020, 12:50:19 PM »
If you name it "The New Red Scare" then you're already assuming that socialism is bad. I wouldn't want this thread to take sides, and create fear for socialism.

We all know where this is going with China. It'll be a new cold war to keep people afraid. Fear makes people docile. And the weapon industry will flourish like never before...

Do you really think the rich bastards don't want to have more control over us? The surveillance in China is a fascist's wet dream. They love China!
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #73 on: June 15, 2020, 01:07:10 PM »
If you name it "The New Red Scare" then you're already assuming that socialism is bad.

What, why? Only because the US demonized the Soviet Union doesn't mean the arguments had merit in the first place. On the contrary, the word implies a scare of something nonexistent nowadays, or am i the only one interpreting it like this?


Quote
Do you really think the rich bastards don't want to have more control over us? The surveillance in China is a fascist's wet dream. They love China!

Well, this is a game that the neocons/neo-nazis play. The Steve Bannons and the John Cottons of the world. They need China for the scare, they don't give a damn about surveillance or human rights.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #74 on: June 15, 2020, 01:20:09 PM »
"The Global Power Shift" or "The Big Shift" might also be appropriate.

Or just "FEAR"... If we could end fear, we could end all hatred and suffering...

For the Netherlandic speaking people on this forum, I have a must see... In the end, we are all racists. I think that as long as we can't except our shortcomings, then we will never be able to fix them...

Zijn we allemaal racisten?
Universiteit Van Vlaanderen
« Last Edit: June 15, 2020, 01:52:31 PM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #75 on: June 15, 2020, 05:13:35 PM »
Rare gathering of US aircraft carriers 'to be met with Chinese countermeasures'
By Liu Xuanzun Source:Global Times Published: 2020/6/14

In a rare move, the US is sending three aircraft carriers to waters near China as bilateral tensions rise, a move interpreted by foreign media as a warning to China. Chinese military experts said on Sunday that the US move again exposed its hegemonic politics in the region, and China could counter it by holding military drills and showing its ability and determination to safeguard its territorial integrity.

China possesses aircraft carrier killer weapons like the DF-21D and DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles.

The three US aircraft carriers, namely the USS Theodore Roosevelt, USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan, together with other US naval warships and aircraft, are patrolling the Indo-Pacific waters, the Associated Press reported on Friday.

It has been nearly three years since so many US aircraft carriers have been simultaneously deployed in the region, the report said, noting this move comes as tensions between China and the US are rising over topics like COVID-19, Hong Kong's national security law and the South China Sea.

All three aircraft carriers were hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which left the US with no aircraft carriers in the western Pacific region for more than two months.

By massing these aircraft carriers, the US is attempting to demonstrate to the whole region and even the world that it remains the most powerful naval force, as they could enter the South China Sea and threaten Chinese troops on the Xisha and Nansha islands as well as vessels passing through nearby waters, so the US could carry out its hegemonic politics, Li Jie, a Beijing-based naval expert, told the Global Times.

China could counter the US move by enhancing its own war preparedness and holding corresponding drills, telling the US that China is capable of and determined to safeguard its territorial integrity, Li said.

Naval and aerial forces of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) have expelled many US warships that illegally entered China's territorial waters off the Xisha and Nansha islands in the South China Sea this year, according to PLA statements.

In addition to standard naval warships, aircraft and missiles, China possesses a wide range of weapons designed to sink aircraft carriers, like the medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile DF-21D that can cover the First Island Chain, and the intermediate range anti-ship ballistic missile DF-26 that can reach Guam. These missiles can attack medium-sized to large surface vessels from above at very high speeds, making them difficult to intercept, according to publicly available information.

Li also cast doubt over US aircraft carrier's combat readiness after their crews' recovery from the epidemic.

Just as US President Donald Trump is pushing for domestic work resumption, the aircraft carriers were also pushed to the frontlines, Li said, noting that the US military only cares whether they are deployed rather than if they are ready to fight.

"In this situation, it is also possible that another COVID-19 outbreak will take place on the US carriers," Li said.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #76 on: June 15, 2020, 05:23:52 PM »
Blunting China’s South China Sea ‘New Normal’ Quest Starts With the Southeast Asian Claimants

Beijing’s continued inroads are unlikely to be reversed unless the most interested parties in the South China Sea work to get past familiar obstacles.

By Prashanth Parameswaran
June 15, 2020

Amid the focus on China’s alleged pandemic opportunism, it’s worth keeping the sober bigger picture in perspective in the South China Sea: that China remains focused on creating a new normal where it has the ability to enforce what it sees as its legitimate claims, and that the response to Beijing’s quest has thus far not been sufficient to blunt it. While reversing this reality will require adjustments on multiple fronts, it cannot occur unless familiar gaps are bridged in responses by claimant states and interested parties in Southeast Asia.

Over the past decade, though the focus of the headlines may shift based on individual developments – be it China’s documented artificial-island building campaign or the reversal of the Philippines’ South China Sea approach with the election of Rodrigo Duterte – the reality is that China has pursued a steady course aimed at securing de facto control of the South China Sea, and the response from other interested parties has been inadequate. This is not because the flood of commentaries prescribing what should be done have fallen on deaf ears, but rather due to a series of rather familiar obstacles to translating these ideas into reality – including the massive asymmetry of capabilities between China and other claimant states and Beijing’s far greater commitment to realizing its objectives in the South China Sea than other powers’ — including Washington’s — will to obstruct it from doing so.

While China may not have won yet in the South China Sea, time is running out to fashion a stronger collective response to blunt Beijing’s new normal quest. The massive imbalance of power in the South China Sea has been repeatedly demonstrated in increasingly bold instances of Chinese coercion, which are met with varying degrees of seriousness by Southeast Asian states depending on the individual circumstance. Negotiations – both multilaterally through the seemingly neverending ASEAN-China Code of Conduct talks and bilaterally between China and the Philippines – have unsurprisingly seen few breakthroughs. And while outside actors such as the United States and Japan have been more active in the South China Sea, more fundamental issues with respect to U.S. policy remain unresolved and few would argue that this has changed the overall picture of China’s incremental gains.

Though reversing this reality will require a lot more across a range of fronts, it cannot be done without – and must necessarily start with – the claimant states and interested parties in Southeast Asia. A claimant-led approach ensures that the countries most invested in an outcome are leading the process and are backed by sufficient and sustainable political will generated from their governments as well as broader societies. And this also provides a clear and strong “floor” to build out from and can reinforce other lines of effort, be it diplomacy through ASEAN, which is vulnerable to division, or alignment with major powers such as the United States, who can then do more while also effectively rebutting the Chinese line that the South China Sea issue is something that is being artificially engineered by outside troublemakers.

What exactly a claimant-led approach involves has actually long been clear. Part of it is about what parties can do individually. This starts with the basics, including individual countries being clear and consistent both publicly and privately when they are confronted with Chinese coercion in the South China Sea rather than expecting others to speak up on their behalf. As I have pointed out previously in response to a China-Malaysia incident, it has become increasingly apparent that doing so can help better distribute the burden of blunting China’s efforts, make clear to Beijing that it faces resistance on multiple fronts, and also help claimants reinforce their own national responses as well, which should involve not only governments but societies more broadly.

But beyond this, blunting China’s new normal quest will require a lot more collective action. Beyond familiar efforts such as joint patrols, which Philippine Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio recently reiterated, more interclaimant cooperation can also be realized in nonmilitary realms as well, including in the legal realm. More discussion and research can also help, with cases in point being the discussions organized at CSIS Indonesia between Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia and ongoing polling conducted by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, which is increasingly being expanded to include questions on more granular issues across the region.

To be sure, all this will need to be paired by other lines of effort as well, be it the calibration of other elements of these claimant states’ increasingly growing and complex ties with China as well as collaboration with like-minded external partners within Asia as well as beyond it. And even with all of this, it is far from clear whether this will be sufficient to blunt China’s new normal quest. But while bridging claimant gaps is of course not where addressing Beijing’s South China Sea behavior ought to end, it is certainly one important place to start if the status quo is to change anytime soon in a meaningful way.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #77 on: June 15, 2020, 09:53:58 PM »
How about "The Fear of War"?

The fear for a new cold war.
The fear for a nuclear war.
The fear for a war between China and India.
The fear for climate change.
The consequences of that fear on people.
How can we end this constant fear of war?
What is fear?

Paradoxes of War
Princeton University

The Paradoxes of War teaches us to understand that war is not only a normal part of human existence, but is arguably one of the most important factors in making us who we are. Through this course, I hope that you will come to appreciate that war is both a natural expression of common human emotions and interactions and a constitutive part of how we cohere as groups.

That is, war is paradoxically an expression of our basest animal nature and the exemplar of our most vaunted and valued civilized virtues. You will learn some basic military history and sociology in this course as a lens for the more important purpose of seeing the broader social themes and issues related to war. I want you to both learn about war, but more importantly, use it as way of understanding your everyday social world. So, for example, the discussion of war and gender will serve to start you thinking about how expectations of masculinity are created and our discussion of nationalism will make clear how easy “us-them” dichotomies can be established and (ab)used. I will suggest some readings for you to complement the class and assign some activities through which you will be able to apply the theoretical insights from the course to your observations of everyday life. At the end of the course, you will start to see war everywhere and come to appreciate how much it defines our life. All the features of this course are available for free. It does not offer a certificate upon completion.

https://www.coursera.org/lecture/war/fear-FYLkK
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

jens

  • New ice
  • Posts: 89
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 57
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #78 on: June 16, 2020, 10:33:00 AM »
Well, the international tensions are certainly escalating, because the world order and livelihoods are deteriorating due to climate change. When people start facing hardships, it puts more pressure on politicians to go radical.

However, big countries like USA, China and Russia are not going to attack each other directly due to nukes. It's more like will be meddling in smaller countries, trying to get more regions into their sphere of influence as the international balance keeps shifting.

And the "shift" these days means that gradually China is gaining and USA is losing their status as the dominant country in the world. However, climate change heavily complicates the matters and speeds up both processes and uncertain outcomes, so it's nowhere near your typical Cold War. It means every country faces hardships and in the end nobody would be a winner.

I think the Pakistan-India region has the greatest risk of blowing up properly due to water scarcity, and both have nukes.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3441
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 577
  • Likes Given: 281
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #79 on: June 16, 2020, 12:11:33 PM »
Pakistan-India is the most dangerous place in my opinion as well, though North Korea and the Middle East have the potential of mushroom clouds as well.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #80 on: June 17, 2020, 03:31:12 AM »
India-China clash: 20 Indian troops killed in Ladakh fighting

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53071913

At least 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a clash with Chinese forces in a disputed Himalayan border area, Indian officials say.

The incident follows rising tensions, and is the first deadly clash in the border area in at least 45 years.

The Indian army initially said three of its soldiers had been killed, adding that both sides suffered casualties.

But later on Tuesday, officials said a number of critically injured soldiers had died of their wounds.

India's external affairs ministry accused China of breaking an agreement struck the previous week to respect the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Galwan Valley.

BBC diplomatic correspondent James Robbins says violence between two armies high up in the Himalayas is very serious, and pressure will grow on the two nuclear powers not to allow a slide into full-scale conflict.

What have both sides said about the incident?

Early on Tuesday the Indian army said three of its soldiers, including an officer, had died in a clash in Ladakh, in the disputed Kashmir region.

Later in the day, it released a statement saying the two sides had disengaged.

It added that "17 Indian troops who were critically injured in the line of duty" and died from their injuries, taking the "total that were killed in action to 20".

China did not confirm any casualties, but accused India in turn of crossing the border onto the Chinese side.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said India had crossed the border twice on Monday, "provoking and attacking Chinese personnel, resulting in serious physical confrontation between border forces on the two sides", AFP news agency reported.



Both sides insist no bullet has been fired in four decades, and the Indian army said on Tuesday that "no shots were fired" in this latest skirmish.

How a clash that did not involve an exchange of fire could prove so lethal is unclear. There are reports that it was fought with rocks and clubs

Local media outlets reported that the Indian soldiers had been "beaten to death".

How tense is the area?

The LAC is poorly demarcated. The presence of rivers, lakes and snowcaps means the line can shift. The soldiers either side - representing two of the world's largest armies - come face to face at many points.

But there have been tense confrontations along the border in recent weeks.

India has accused China of sending thousands of troops into Ladakh's Galwan valley and says China occupies 38,000sq km (14,700sq miles) of its territory. Several rounds of talks in the last three decades have failed to resolve the boundary disputes.

The two countries have fought only one war so far, in 1962, when India suffered a humiliating defeat.

In May, dozens of Indian and Chinese soldiers exchanged physical blows on the border in the north-eastern state of Sikkim. And in 2017, the two countries clashed in the region after China tried to extend a border road through a disputed plateau.

There are several reasons why tensions are rising now - but competing strategic goals lie at the root, and both sides blame each other.

India has built a new road in what experts say is the most remote and vulnerable area along the LAC in Ladakh. And India's decision to ramp up infrastructure seems to have infuriated Beijing.

The road could boost Delhi's capability to move men and materiel rapidly in case of a conflict.

India also disputes part of Kashmir - an ethnically diverse Himalayan region covering about 140,000sq km - with Pakistan.

The two nuclear armed neighbours have a chequered history of face-offs and overlapping territorial claims along the more than 3,440km (2,100 mile), poorly drawn Line of Actual Control separating the two sides.

Border patrols have often bumped into each other, resulting in occasional scuffles. But no bullets have been fired in four decades.

That is why Sunday's night's clash following months of roiling tension has taken many by surprise.

Whatever the result, the latest incident is likely to trigger a fresh wave of anti-China sentiments in India.

It will also present daunting foreign policy and security challenges to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government, which is struggling to contain a surge of Covid-19 infections and revive an economy which looks headed for recession.

Read Soutik's analysis in full
India-China clash: An extraordinary escalation 'with rocks and clubs'
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3441
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 577
  • Likes Given: 281
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #81 on: June 17, 2020, 06:39:40 PM »
IIRC no POTUS who has run for re-election during wartime has lost.
Does this encourage Trump to stir things up?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #82 on: June 18, 2020, 02:15:11 AM »
This turt will do just about anything to get reelected, so I wouldn't be surprised if he did fire a few rounds towards the Chinese. The question is if people will see through it...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #83 on: June 18, 2020, 01:11:10 PM »
Here we go...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/17/john-bolton-book-trump-china-326563

Quote
Xi, according to Bolton, complained to the president of unnamed American politicians who Xi said were wrong to call for a new cold war with China, a slight Trump took to be directed toward Democrats who he agreed were too hostile toward Beijing.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 736
Re: Cold War II
« Reply #84 on: June 20, 2020, 08:21:42 PM »
The US and China are entering a new cold war. Where does that leave the rest of us?
Liberal democracies must learn the lessons of the past by thinking long term, applying a strong moral code – and avoiding hubris

Timothy Garton Ash,
20 June 2020

Let’s be honest: there is a new cold war between China and the United States. The coronavirus crisis has only heightened the antagonism. There are few, if any, countries in Africa or Latin America where the two superpowers do not loom large as rivals. When Chinese and Indian soldiers clash with brutal hand-to-hand fighting on a disputed frontier, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo hastens to take the Indians’ side. British MPs have formed a China Research Group – with the word research meaning “opposition research”, as in the European Research Group. The question of whether Huawei is a security threat is being asked almost everywhere.

Every historical analogy is imperfect, but if the essence of cold war is a worldwide, multi-dimensional, long-term struggle between two superpowers, this is a new cold war. The question for the rest of us is: what we do about it? Do we put our heads in the sand and say: “Please make this go away?” That is roughly the attitude of most Europeans. Or do we recognise the reality and try to shape it towards the best possible outcome? The latter is obviously the right course. With that in mind, here are nine lessons from cold war I for cold war II.

We must think long term

The first cold war lasted more than 40 years. The People’s Republic of China has huge strengths, including sheer scale, national pride, evolutionary innovation, an entrepreneurial society and a Leninist party that has systematically learned from the collapse of the Soviet Union so as to avoid the same fate. This will be a long haul.

Combine competition and cooperation

Detente policies were not distinct from the first cold war – they were an intrinsic part of it. Liberal democracies did best when they combined tough, hard-nosed defence and containment with diplomacy and constructive engagement. Our red lines on issues such as the security of Taiwan should be crystal clear, but so should our continued readiness to work with Beijing. The EU correctly describes China as at once a partner, a competitor and a “systemic rival”. Given the degree of interdependence between China and the liberal world, as well as global threats such as climate change and Covid-19, we’ll need to embrace a twin-track approach.

Focus on China’s internal dynamics

The primary cause of this new cold war is the turn taken by the Chinese communist party leadership under Xi Jinping since 2012: more oppressive at home, more aggressive abroad. We have to understand why the Chinese party-state took this turn away from the more pragmatic, evolutionary strategy – “crossing the river by feeling for the stones” – that for decades enabled the country’s peaceful rise and won China such broad international appeal at the time of the Beijing Olympics. And what forces or circumstances might bring it back to such a path? We need all the expertise we can get on Chinese history, culture and politics, and on Asia as a whole.

Don’t believe we can engineer their system

One of the recurrent delusions of western policy in the first cold war was that it could directly and predictably change the other side’s domestic politics. Remember all that behavioural psychology nonsense about strengthening the doves and weakening the hawks? The entirety of our policies will be at best a secondary cause of change in the Chinese system. Avoid behaviouristic hubris.

Always remember that we are addressing a society as well as a state

The more we – rightly – criticise the party-state’s policy in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and the South China Sea, the more we need to emphasise that this is not an attack on the Chinese people, with their rich, fascinating culture and history. Every action and statement should be assessed for its impact on Chinese society as well as on the party-state. In the end, it is the Chinese who will change China, not us.

China is not the Soviet Union

Learning from the first cold war also means understanding how this time is different. Just as the Soviet Union was a mix of Leninist politics and Russian history, so China blends Xi’s Leninism with Chinese culture and tradition. Francis Fukuyama argues that China was “the first world civilisation to create a modern state” and that for centuries “Chinese regimes were centralised, bureaucratic and merit-based”. China’s strengths and weaknesses also flow from an unprecedented combination of Leninism and capitalism. Other historical comparisons are illuminating, such as with the economically modern but socially conflicted pre-1914 Wilhelmine Germany, which challenged imperial Britain as Beijing now challenges the imperial US.

If you don’t know what to do, do the right thing

We watch with horror the tragedy of Hong Kong, the totalitarian oppression of the Uighurs in Xinjiang and the muzzling of brave individual dissidents. The British government has done the right thing in offering a path to full British citizenship for up to 3 million Hong Kong residents, even though this will do nothing to prevent the slow strangling of that city’s glorious high-rise synthesis of east and west. The Norwegian Nobel committee was right to award the peace prize to Liu Xiaobo, although it could not save that brave and lucid Chinese patriot from a painful death in prison.

Unity is strength

At the moment, the liberal world is at sixes and sevens over China. Beijing has endless opportunities to divide and rule. A recent official paper laying out Washington’s new “strategic approach” to the other superpower says the first objective of US policy is “to improve the resiliency of our institutions, alliances and partnerships”, but Donald Trump does the opposite. An effective twin-track response to the Chinese challenge requires a strategic unity that is geographically wider than the pre-1989 western alliance of Western Europe and North America. The EU, the post-Brexit UK and a new US administration should sit down with representatives of other democracies early next year to chart common ground.

Cold wars are won at home

By far the most important single thing that liberal democracies did to prevail in the first cold war was to make our own societies prosperous, free, open and attractive. The same will be true this time. A former Chinese student of mine has written a fascinating essay about the attitudes of Chinese students who return home after studying at western universities. His conclusion: the experience of living in the west does not make returning Chinese students, as we might once have hoped, perfect pro-western liberal democrats. Instead, they become “double dissidents”, highly critical of both systems. It’s not our foreign policy that will ultimately convince them. It’s what we do at home.

Oh, and one last thing. I call this a new cold war because my job as a political writer is to call a spade a spade. That doesn’t mean western politicians would be well-advised to deploy a phrase with such negative connotations. Wise leaders don’t say all they know.

Timothy Garton Ash is a Guardian columnist
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama