This is a challenge which accumulates scores across all the monthly polls on September sea ice to come up with an overall rating of how good the predictions made are. In addition to making a prediction, entrants are required to rate their confidence in that prediction. The higher the confidence, the narrower the margin of error you are allowed, but the higher score you get if the September ice ends up where you predicted it (and the bigger penalty you take if you miss).
The scoring is intended to reward having a good idea of the margin of error in your prediction. You score low if you understate your accuracy, and get penalised heavily if you are overconfident.
Polls included are: JAXA daily minimum extent, NSIDC September average extent.
Others may be added if they fit the structure of the challenge.
Points are scored as follows:
Very High Confidence: 10 points if you pick the correct bin, -10 points for all other bins.
High Confidence: 6 points for the correct bin, 2 points if one bin out, -2 points if two bins out, -6 points for all other bins
Medium Confidence: 4 points for the correct bin, 2 points if one bin out, 1 point if two bins out, -1 if three bins out, -2 if four bins out, -4 points for all other bins
Low Confidence: 2 points for the correct bin, 1 point if within 3 bins, -1 point if 4-6 bins out, -2 points for all other bins
Very Low Confidence: 1 point if in the correct bin, no score (or penalty) for any other bin.
This is for a poll structure with overlapping 0.5 bins. When the result (or the prediction) is outside the range covered by a poll with overlapping 0.5 bins, points will be awarded by counting each extra 0.25 beyond the poll range as 1 bin. Under 2.0 is not a valid prediction for this challenge, but 0.5-1.0 is and counts as 6 bins below the 2.0-2.5 bin.
To enter, post prediction and confidence in this thread before the closing date of the poll. The deadline is midnight UK time on the day the poll closes.
Editing to change a prediction is allowed at any time before the deadline. Editing for any reason after the deadline will result in disqualification of that entry.
In order to help keep track of entries, please quote your previous entry when making entries in subsequent months.
Currently active polls are:
June poll for JAXA minimum.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3109.0.htmlJune poll for NSIDC September average.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3110.0.htmlThere is no requirement to enter for all polls or to match your choice in the predictions thread.
A challenge entry should look something like this
June JAXA : 0.0-0.5, VH
June NSIDC: 6.0-6.5, M
The mother of all GACs expels all ice from the arctic on Sept 1st but is met by a UN aerosol barrage that leads to massive refreeze by Sept 30th.
The 2018 challenge thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2327.0.htmlThe 2019 thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2749.0.html