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nanning

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #300 on: May 26, 2020, 07:29:38 AM »
Working from home will help if those workers are normally commuting by private luxury FF car. Workers who change their (electrical) train commute to working from home won't have much positive effect on carbon footprint.

The revenue drop by the privatised company NS ('Nederlandse Spoorwegen', originally national rail) would suggest a hand-out from the government for this important low CO₂ personal transport, especially since they're running on 'green electricity'.
I haven't seen any hand-outs to the low carbon NS company but I have seen a 2-4 billion hand-out to the private company 'KLM' that offers only very high CO₂ personal transport.

I observe that the BAU trend continues unabated or with even more vigour eyeing the accompanying hand-outs to the FF related industries and billionaires; BAU² (hat-tip to gerontocrat I think), which means the transition to a low carbon economy is further hindered and postponed (politicians/lackeys kicking the can down the road to oblivion).
Saving extraordinary circumstances, I think 2030 will see BAU³ if the neo-liberal dogma's are still prevalent. When will weather extremes become a large/significant/dominating factor in our global economy? Before 2030?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

ralfy

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #301 on: May 26, 2020, 04:31:19 PM »
http://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/howmuchenergy/

The world currently consumes around 20 TW of energy. Much of the population of that world belong to developing economies and they earn less than $10 daily. They lack one or more basic needs.

To make sure that the current population receives at least basic needs, around 50 TW of energy will be needed.

To meet a population of around 10 billion, it will need around 75 TW.

To ensure continuous economic growth (because most of the wealth of the same population consists of money whose value can only be maintained with increasing economic activity), much more than that.

To adjust to diminishing returns, even more.

What about diminishing returns?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_ecological_footprint

The ave. ecological footprint per capita is in excess of biocapacity, leading to diminishing returns, pollution, and the effects of pollution, including global warming. Even more energy will be needed to minimize the effects of those problems.

Part of that biocapacity are fossil fuels needed for mining, manufacturing, and shipping of even components needed for renewable energy, not to mention mechanized agriculture.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #302 on: May 28, 2020, 06:56:06 PM »
The first orders appeared for the largest turbines. Even before a working prototype was built.

https://www.evwind.es/2020/05/26/siemens-gamesa-sg-14-222-dd-offshore-wind-turbines-planned-for-300-mw-hai-long-2-offshore-wind-energy-project-in-taiwan/74872

https://www.power-technology.com/news/deal-news/sgre-wins-turbine-contracts-for-2640mw-virginia-wind-farm/

Although the new record of the Spanish-German company will not last long.

https://www.rivieramm.com/news-content-hub/aerodyn-confirms-development-of-111-m-blade-to-market-59580

Quote
Aerodyn confirms development of 111-m blade for offshore market
28 May 2020
by David Foxwell

Aerodyn Energiesysteme in Germany has confirmed earlier reports about a new rotor blade it is developing for next-generation offshore wind turbines

The Rendsburg-based company is developing the 111-m TC1B rotor blade with 11-15 MW offshore wind turbines in mind.

The length of the blade it is developing thus exceeds that of those on GE Renewable Energy’s 12-MW Haliade-X, which are 107 m long, and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy’s recently announced 15-MW capable SG 14-222 DD direct drive offshore wind turbine, which has 108-m blades.

The company described the new blade as a promising 14-MW pre-design for a TC1B site that can be optimised to take into account turbine rated power, type class and BCD.

“The rotor blade has a hybrid CFRP-GFRP spar caps to reduce the use of costly C-fibres to a minimum,” said the company.

For some time, Aerodyn has also been working on a 10-MW+ offshore wind turbine and components for it and has stated it is ready to enter into production. It previously stated that generator production is planned for Q1 2021.

The company also earlier reported a new focus on turbines and components for the floating wind market.

Aerodyn said it had developed new software and processes to address challenges associated with using very large turbines with floating structures and mooring systems. These include increased movement and hydrodynamic and other forces that affect the dynamics of floating turbines, that result in high acceleration forces on the tower head that may be imparted to the drivetrain.

jens

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #303 on: June 06, 2020, 08:40:21 PM »
Civilization has already peaked. Now in 2020 we have already started to see decline (wildfires, pandemic, economic crisis, social unrests, tropical countries in real trouble with food and water, etc). It is just a light prelude of what is about to come.

What will the world look like in 2030? Well, hard to tell exactly, but a lot will happen during the next 10 years. To give a personal overview of the situation in 2030:

- emissions will have dropped a lot, but not due to switch to renewable energy, but due to global economic collapse. However, this won't save us from climate catastrophe, because a lot of warming is already locked in.

- tropical countries will have largely collapsed by that point. Places like India and Pakistan will have run out of water and will have severe food shortages. Africa will be largely starving. Australia may well have collapsed by that point too. Bushfires, desertification and water shortages will have done the job by then.

- current developed world will have largely turned into a developing world. Rise of totalitarian regimes to keep social order, while people panic as life standards are dropping and poverty sets in. Resource wars and a lot of fences built everywhere to keep migrants away, while countries are busy dealing with their own problems. Concentration camps. Can't tell if we could see a nuclear war by that point, or not.

Doesn't sound pretty? Well, future isn't pretty in any way...

Of course, by 2030 we won't yet have +3/+4C warming, which would make significant parts of the planet uninhabitable. The projected "hothouse Earth" scenario looks more likely to happen either by 2050 or beyond. However, trouble is already real by 2030 due to biosphere degradation and ever-increasing amount of climate disasters. And who knows, which kind of pandemics we could get by that point! There would already be more uninhabitable regions in the world, several regions with severe water shortages and a global food crisis. World human population will have started to decrease already and many of those, who are still alive, would be in severe poverty.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2020, 09:03:36 PM by jens »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #304 on: June 06, 2020, 08:45:26 PM »
Well, jens, why don't you tell us the bad news?  :)
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dnem

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #305 on: June 06, 2020, 10:07:17 PM »
Simple question: In what year will human population peak? Right now human births outnumber deaths by ~80 million people a year. When do folks think annual human deaths will outnumber births?

I'll throw out 2034.  I recognize that represents a dramatic, unprecedented demographic shift.

Hefaistos

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #306 on: June 07, 2020, 12:31:57 AM »
Simple question: In what year will human population peak? Right now human births outnumber deaths by ~80 million people a year. When do folks think annual human deaths will outnumber births?

I'll throw out 2034.  I recognize that represents a dramatic, unprecedented demographic shift.

Nothing unprecedented, but it will be after 2100.

https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/900

dnem

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #307 on: June 07, 2020, 01:00:54 PM »
Hefaistos, I am well aware of the standard UN predictions. Jens just posted his prediction that we will be well into civilizational collapse by 2030. He included a list of dire outcomes. He wrote "tropical countries will have largely collapsed by that point. Places like India and Pakistan will have run out of water and will have severe food shortages. Africa will be largely starving."

That would seem to imply global human populations on the decline. Oren frequently asserts he sees "collapse" by 2050 or so. Again, I would suspect that prior to collapse, the general situation for humanity would be such that deaths would be rising and births falling and that deaths would overcome births.

If human populations began to fall in the 2030s that would represent a huge, dramatic and essentially unprecedented change in our demographic trajectory (other than theorized "bottlenecks" during human evolution 10s of thousands of years ago and the Black Death).

I tend to think that if deaths begin to rise and births fall to the extent that we begin to noticeably fall off of the standard demographic predictions leading us to 10 billion later this century, that would be strong evidence that we are indeed in overshoot and exceeding the planet's carrying capacity.

Or maybe we will follow the curve you posted with no hints of trouble until population crashes all at once with no prior hint of trouble. I doubt it.

jens

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #308 on: June 08, 2020, 09:02:11 AM »
The problem with UN projections is that they use a mathematical model based on past data, but don't take into account climate change and the changing environment we are going to live in. I'm not even convinced their population counters would determine the start of decline, because once countries face collapse, who is going to count all the dead bodies to great precision? We can only get a rough guesstimate, when will population start to decrease.

What concerns "collapse" itself, then really depends on what anyone means by it. And in different regions it happens at different times. Tropical areas with overpopulation, close to +50 C heatwaves and acute droughts are really much closer to a tipping point than, say, Nordic countries, who by the looks of it can keep going for a decent while, even if with reduced living standards.

The Walrus

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #309 on: June 08, 2020, 03:24:45 PM »
"The battle to feed all of humanity is over.  Hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in the next decade, in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now."

“nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.”

"crowded India is essentially doomed."

"Sometime in the next 15 years, the end will come, an utter breakdown of the capacity of the planet to support humanity.”

Paul Ehrlich, "The Population Bomb," 1968

kassy

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #310 on: June 08, 2020, 04:02:29 PM »
He did not appreciate high yield varieties enough or maybe he did make tons of money over the publicty...   

Off course we have a totally different problem now.

Assume we go to zero CO2 increase tomorrow what will be the locked in effects?

Assume we go to zero CO2 increase on your most likely time table what will be the locked in effects?

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

jens

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #311 on: June 08, 2020, 08:12:45 PM »
I have understood back in 1960's there was a different direct reason for doomsday predictions. It was about when "green revolution" started, which greatly increased agricultural productivity. Before this happened, there indeed was concern that it wouldn't be possible to feed all people with old agricultural methods, but it changed.

However, nowadays there is a different situation. Now there is an increasing amount of direct climate disasters, which wasn't the case back then. And I don't see, which technology could halt this, unless they find out quickly, how to capture carbon and reduce the amount of CO2 massively in athmosphere. But such an undertaking seems very unlikely.

The Walrus

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #312 on: June 08, 2020, 10:15:41 PM »
Let's see, the worst cyclone of all time was the Bhola in 1970, which killed half a million people in Bangladesh.  Prior to that, the deadliest cyclones occurred in the 19th century.  The worst floods were all in China during the early 20th century.  The worst droughts in the U.S. occurred in the 1930s and 50s.  Of course, nothing compares to the great Chinese drought of the 1920s, which killed millions (total unknown, but estimates are as high as 10 million).  Ironically, that was followed by the great flood of 1931 mentioned previously.  Do you still believe that this was not the case back then?


oren

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #313 on: June 08, 2020, 11:13:37 PM »
Great, someone made a doomsday prediction 50 years ago and was wrong. That should mean no doomsday prediction can be correct, right?
« Last Edit: June 09, 2020, 09:47:41 AM by oren »

Hefaistos

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #314 on: June 08, 2020, 11:19:21 PM »
Let's see, the worst cyclone of all time was the Bhola in 1970, which killed half a million people in Bangladesh.  Prior to that, the deadliest cyclones occurred in the 19th century.  The worst floods were all in China during the early 20th century.  The worst droughts in the U.S. occurred in the 1930s and 50s.  Of course, nothing compares to the great Chinese drought of the 1920s, which killed millions (total unknown, but estimates are as high as 10 million).  Ironically, that was followed by the great flood of 1931 mentioned previously.  Do you still believe that this was not the case back then?

Compare to the current corona pandemic. Maybe it will kill one million people.
The modern world seems to be more resilient to catastrophies.

The Walrus

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #315 on: June 08, 2020, 11:34:49 PM »
Great, someone made a doomsday prediction 50 tears ago and was wrong. That should mean no doomsday prediction can be correct, right?

Has anyone been correct yet?

jens

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #316 on: June 08, 2020, 11:40:14 PM »

----  Do you still believe that this was not the case back then?

The keyword in my post was increase. Disasters happened in the past too. But it's about frequency. Of course nowadays world has much better ability in dealing with catastrophes. Were a cyclone to arrive, people would be evacuated. Humanitarian aid is sent to regions in trouble. Food aid would be sent to regions in drought. But of course this kind of global resilience has limits. If the frequency of events is too high, you lose capacity to manage and re-build.

A decent example would be to look at the Caribbean islands. An increasing amount of hurricanes has left several islands there in trouble, which have frankly never recovered. I'd say several places have already effectively collapsed there. They lack resources to rebuild and you could get a hurricane in any year again.

The Walrus

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #317 on: June 09, 2020, 12:15:57 AM »

----  Do you still believe that this was not the case back then?

The keyword in my post was increase. Disasters happened in the past too. But it's about frequency. Of course nowadays world has much better ability in dealing with catastrophes. Were a cyclone to arrive, people would be evacuated. Humanitarian aid is sent to regions in trouble. Food aid would be sent to regions in drought. But of course this kind of global resilience has limits. If the frequency of events is too high, you lose capacity to manage and re-build.

A decent example would be to look at the Caribbean islands. An increasing amount of hurricanes has left several islands there in trouble, which have frankly never recovered. I'd say several places have already effectively collapsed there. They lack resources to rebuild and you could get a hurricane in any year again.

There has not been much change in frequency over the long term.  Sure, the trend in Atlantic hurricanes has been on the rise since 1970, but that particularly low time.  Prior to then, the frequency was higher, and the long term trend is relatively flat.  The bigger problem is development.  That has increased significantly, resulting in greater destruction when a hurricane strikes.

Wherestheice

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #318 on: June 09, 2020, 01:46:27 AM »
Simple question: In what year will human population peak? Right now human births outnumber deaths by ~80 million people a year. When do folks think annual human deaths will outnumber births?

I'll throw out 2034.  I recognize that represents a dramatic, unprecedented demographic shift.

Nothing unprecedented, but it will be after 2100.

https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/900

If the human population doesn't peak till after 2100, good lord I will have to pray for every living species on the planet. If we allow that to happen, there won't be much left.

This is why I think we will peak much sooner. The famous study "Limits to growth", is the key to this topic.
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greylib

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #319 on: June 09, 2020, 02:48:10 AM »
I believe there are over thirty countries with birth rate below death rate. Some have declining populations, others are sustained by immigration.

The countries with rising populations are mainly in Africa, which is one reason why many African nations have so much trouble feeding their people. The gap is partially bridged by (a) food aid; (b) emigration; (c) famine; (d) wars. The situation is unstable, and has been for at least fifty years. Climate change is making things even worse nowadays. I'm not sure what can be done, but I don't think it's going to end well.

I remember being part of an internet debate ten or fifteen years ago, sparked by a news report about a Nigerian family. The father lived (very poorly) on welfare. He had three wives, two of whom earned a small amount sweeping streets, with the third mending clothes. Between them, the three women had THIRTY children. The debate focused on the simple question: "how can you not feed a hungry child? But if you do, what happens when they grow up and have children of their own?"

The answer's no clearer now than it was then. With the COVID-19 economic shock, a lot of donor countries won't be able to send as much aid as they did. Or at least, they won't want to. And then millions will either die or attempt to emigrate, with richer countries putting up barriers. We're seeing signs of that already - I'd say the policies will be in place well before 2030. And as I said, I don't think it's going to end well.
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jens

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #320 on: June 09, 2020, 09:35:04 AM »
Great, someone made a doomsday prediction 50 tears ago and was wrong. That should mean no doomsday prediction can be correct, right?

Has anyone been correct yet?

Eventually some predictions will be correct, but the problem is that when this happens, there won't be people left to reflect on this. And nobody would be able to say "I told you so". However, before "doomsday" people will keep ignoring problems as long as they can, and make a brave face everything is fine.

We are in a classic case of "overshoot and decline", which is basically an operative mechanism in the laws of nature. It's just the question of when "decline"/"collapse"/"doomsday"/whatever happens, not if.

In any case, we don't need to wait till we see the ultimate doomsday happening. We can see that the tide has already turned and civilization has entered decline mode with a multitude of problems happening already now. And it is 2020. By 2030, as per topic, it will be much more amplified.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2020, 09:44:32 AM by jens »

dnem

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Re: World of 2030
« Reply #321 on: July 06, 2020, 01:48:12 PM »
Not quite sure where to put this, but it works here.  His view of the next few decades strikes me as not unreasonable:
https://eand.co/if-life-feels-bleak-its-because-our-civilization-is-beginning-to-collapse-a787d62d714b

If Life Feels Bleak, It’s Because Our Civilization is Beginning to Collapse
2030 Will Be Even Worse than 2020. And 2040 Will Be Even Worse than That. Unless.


There’s an old line from a movie called Office Space — do you remember that one? — that I’ve always loved: “Every day since I began work is worse than the day before it.” That’s kind of an apt summary for…everything…at the moment.

Life isn’t a happy thing right about now. It’s stressful, strange, upside-down. I’m weary with boredom, exhausted by isolation, tired of all the nothing…and I bet you are, too. So.
Is it just me, or living through the end of human civilization kind of…sucks?

There’s not — or there shouldn’t be, by now — any real debate on the point that we are now living through the probable end of human civilization.

The end of human civilization is now easy enough to see, over the next three to five decades. It’s made of climate change, mass extinction, ecological collapse, and the economic depressions, financial implosions, political upheavals, pandemics, plagues, floods, fires, and social breakdowns all those will ignite.

Coronavirus is a foreshadowing, a taste of a dismal future, a warning, and a portrait, too. Life as we know it is falling apart. Life as we know it will continue to fall apart, for the rest of our lives. How do you live through that?

I’m not your therapist, sadly — or luckily. I’m just an economist. So let me paint you a picture.