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Tom_Mazanec

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World of 2100
« on: June 04, 2020, 01:57:23 AM »
This is as far from us as WWII is in the other direction. Children alive today could expect to live till then.
However, the great decision will be made in this century and the results of our choices today will be apparent.
What do you see for 2100?
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Freegrass

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2020, 03:27:45 AM »
This is as far from us as WWII is in the other direction. Children alive today could expect to live till then.
However, the great decision will be made in this century and the results of our choices today will be apparent.
What do you see for 2100?
Impossible to know with the emergence of AI and Quantum computing...
But China will be on top I guess.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

Gerntocratis#1

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2020, 03:56:19 AM »
Misery in clown world

Hefaistos

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2020, 08:22:45 AM »

Impossible to know with the emergence of AI and Quantum computing...
But China will be on top I guess.

Technological singularity 2029
Full singularity 2045

https://futurism.com/kurzweil-claims-that-the-singularity-will-happen-by-2045

Freegrass

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2020, 08:30:15 AM »

Impossible to know with the emergence of AI and Quantum computing...
But China will be on top I guess.

Technological singularity 2029
Full singularity 2045

https://futurism.com/kurzweil-claims-that-the-singularity-will-happen-by-2045
Let's hope those computers can figure out how to save the climate. Because people suck at it...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

blumenkraft

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2020, 08:44:31 AM »
I don't actually believe Kurzweil believes in what he sais there.

But it sells books, you know...
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Hefaistos

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2020, 09:50:54 AM »
I think the technological singularity is within reach (that some AI passes the Turing test in a general setting)

It's more likely that some sort of AI will be on top in 2100, than the Chinese (as Freegrass suggested)

Freegrass

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2020, 10:17:11 AM »
I think the technological singularity is within reach (that some AI passes the Turing test in a general setting)

It's more likely that some sort of AI will be on top in 2100, than the Chinese (as Freegrass suggested)
Don't you think China will be controlling that AI? Whoever does, is the winner...

Americannot used to be on top in developing technology. Now they are fighting Chinese 5G...  :-\
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

Wherestheice

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2020, 10:26:57 AM »
By 2100, I expect the human population to be below 1 billion. At least 4 C warmer, maybe as high as 6.

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Wherestheice

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2020, 10:27:54 AM »

Impossible to know with the emergence of AI and Quantum computing...
But China will be on top I guess.

Technological singularity 2029
Full singularity 2045

https://futurism.com/kurzweil-claims-that-the-singularity-will-happen-by-2045
Let's hope those computers can figure out how to save the climate. Because people suck at it...

The computers will solve it.... kill the humans
"When the ice goes..... F***

Freegrass

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2020, 10:30:03 AM »
The computers will solve it.... kill the humans
I think nature is already trying to do that right now...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.

kassy

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2020, 02:21:02 PM »
By 2100, I expect the human population to be below 1 billion. At least 4 C warmer, maybe as high as 6.

Recent research showed that by 2070 3 billion people could be living in areas with deadly heat. I doubt they would want to stay there.

The actual mechanism for the temperature increase is interesting:

Quote
Countervailing forces and effects eventually get overpowered; when the CO2 level reaches about 1,200 parts per million in the simulation — which could happen in 100 to 150 years, if emissions aren’t curbed — more entrainment and less cooling conspire to break up the stratocumulus cloud altogether.

https://www.quantamagazine.org/cloud-loss-could-add-8-degrees-to-global-warming-20190225/

And before anyone protests about 1,200 ppm we are still finding new things like this gem:

"We didn't realize until we did this work that these external forcings, like changes in the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide, dominate the variability in the global ocean on year-to-year timescales. That's a real surprise," said lead author Galen McKinley, a carbon cycle scientist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. "As we reduce our emissions and the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide slows down, it's important to realize that the ocean carbon sink will respond by slowing down."

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-06/eiac-ouo060320.php

Also between now and then:
Loss of Amazon (with interesting knock on results for the continent which should add CO2)

Other things that will be problematic in the time frame: soil depletion, aquifer depletion. Glaciers providing drinking water severly declined etc.
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nanning

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #12 on: June 04, 2020, 03:20:44 PM »
Reluctant to post here I do I agree with Wherestheice.

If civilisation collapses around 2030 the GMSTemperatureA may go as high as +4. If it goes on then +6 or higher is on the board. We're talking about a hyperthermal.

Human population will be < 1 billion imo but because of the rising temperature extremes and extremely degrading biosphere, our population will very likely be 0. I think almost all large mammals will be extinct. I think the oceans and climates will have changed considerably. We're witnessing extremely fast anthropogenic mass extinction; what human global civilisation accomplishes is more than 'just' a great extinction event. Never before has GHG risen so fast. Never before have extinctions happened so fast. Never before so much pollution (radioactivity, plastic, forever-chemicals biocides, drugs, nutrients overavailability, genetic modifications, 'breeding', habitat destruction).
    Total destruction.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

bbr2315

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #13 on: June 04, 2020, 03:28:35 PM »
Reluctant to post here I do I agree with Wherestheice.

If civilisation collapses around 2030 the GMSTemperatureA may go as high as +4. If it goes on then +6 or higher is on the board. We're talking about a hyperthermal.

Human population will be < 1 billion imo but because of the rising temperature extremes and extremely degrading biosphere, our population will very likely be 0. I think almost all large mammals will be extinct. I think the oceans and climates will have changed considerably. We're witnessing extremely fast anthropogenic mass extinction; what human global civilisation accomplishes is more than 'just' a great extinction event. Never before has GHG risen so fast. Never before have extinctions happened so fast. Never before so much pollution (radioactivity, plastic, forever-chemicals biocides, drugs, nutrients overavailability, genetic modifications, 'breeding', habitat destruction).
    Total destruction.
Do aging Boomers like postulating end dates of 2030 because their own mortality is drawing near? As human generations have become increasingly self-aware and narcissistic it seems that an attraction to postulating the end of the world alongside one's own fate has grown in much of the West. Perhaps it is easier to take solace in one's own looming mortality when one can also imagine looming death for everyone else.

I could see this death drive ultimately doing the species in. One of the presidents of the current cohort pressing the red button in nihilistic spitefulness. Or maybe we will have to wait til 2070 for that to happen. LOL.  :P

kassy

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #14 on: June 04, 2020, 04:21:32 PM »
Who knows?

Nanning is not in that age group since he grew up with computers.

I do wonder how much age modifies peoples outlook in general. And also if having kids changes that much.

I don´t see a death drive but a society taught to be passive consumers but that is more for politics. For here lets stick on projections of global warming and additional problems of choice.
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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #15 on: June 04, 2020, 05:04:57 PM »
The reasons to focus on collapse by 2030 are:

1) It's going to happen
2) We need to motivate the boomers to vote accordingly with the understanding that this will impact them during their expected lifetimes. The problem is not a few self indulgent boomers on ASIF. its the multitude of boomers who think that AGW is not their problem because its far into the future when they'll be dead.

Even if every unknown breaks in our favor, ten years of sea level rise and our improved ability to predict it will inform us of the inevitable loss of coastal land that will destroy financial markets. We don't have a mechanism to quickly cool off the ocean or relocate it from the base of glaciers.

Wherestheice

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2020, 08:10:20 PM »
Reluctant to post here I do I agree with Wherestheice.

If civilisation collapses around 2030 the GMSTemperatureA may go as high as +4. If it goes on then +6 or higher is on the board. We're talking about a hyperthermal.

Human population will be < 1 billion imo but because of the rising temperature extremes and extremely degrading biosphere, our population will very likely be 0. I think almost all large mammals will be extinct. I think the oceans and climates will have changed considerably. We're witnessing extremely fast anthropogenic mass extinction; what human global civilisation accomplishes is more than 'just' a great extinction event. Never before has GHG risen so fast. Never before have extinctions happened so fast. Never before so much pollution (radioactivity, plastic, forever-chemicals biocides, drugs, nutrients overavailability, genetic modifications, 'breeding', habitat destruction).
    Total destruction.
Do aging Boomers like postulating end dates of 2030 because their own mortality is drawing near? As human generations have become increasingly self-aware and narcissistic it seems that an attraction to postulating the end of the world alongside one's own fate has grown in much of the West. Perhaps it is easier to take solace in one's own looming mortality when one can also imagine looming death for everyone else.

I could see this death drive ultimately doing the species in. One of the presidents of the current cohort pressing the red button in nihilistic spitefulness. Or maybe we will have to wait til 2070 for that to happen. LOL.  :P

Wait there is a second bbr now?
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oren

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #17 on: June 04, 2020, 10:33:24 PM »
Yeah, the second coming of bbr.

As I expect a civilizational collapse mid-century, I don't have much to add to the 2100 timeframe. 1 billion humans sounds about right, maybe optimistic.

igs

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #18 on: June 04, 2020, 11:44:25 PM »
The computers will solve it.... kill the humans
I think nature is already trying to do that right now...


My thought all the the time but humans are almost committing suicide just to prevent nature to do it's job smoothly and softly, later strongly with all it's force.


Of course nature, meaning the laws of physics will ultimately prevail as always ;)


Thing is that each time homo sapiens sapiens dodged a bullet of some size, nature will come up with an event bigger bullet, then a cannon ball and ultimtely nature will nuke us and this i mean literally in two possible ways.


a) either we release the force (nukes) ourselves through sheer stupidity based on pride, envy and testosterone etc.


or

b) Nature sends us a gift, very latest once the sun becomes a red giant, but most probably long before that happens.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2020, 11:51:30 PM by igs »
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Freegrass

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #19 on: June 08, 2020, 01:53:21 AM »
People are already planning ahead. I think it's possible that the rich will be living under a dome, or in space. Hollywood movies have been preparing us for a dystopian world for years now, so I can see these things actually being built to protect a select few...

Quote
Houston, Texas, the fourth-largest city in the U.S., has always been vulnerable to severe weather and heat. A 2 million-square-meter dome should protect downtown from hurricanes and regulate the climate, though only covering 0,33% of the total Houston area.

Scientists made up plans to cover a part of the city with a polymer structure manufactured in Germany. Compared to glass, the light and durable material (ETFE) that withstands winds up to 290 km/h, is only 1% the weight.

A video at Discovery Channel shows how maybe one day this giant structure will save Houston from a terrible natural disaster.

On a different note, what will the weather be like inside the bubble? Will artificial rain still evoke the same reactions?

https://nextnature.net/2009/10/houston-weve-got-a-dome
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oren

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #20 on: June 08, 2020, 05:33:24 AM »
These proposed structures always give me the chills. Does someone truly believe this is a solution to anything? Imagine Hurricane Harvey raining down on this dome for 5 days, the water flowing to the sides. I can imagine several endings to this scenario, none of them remotely nice.
In any case, in the world of 2100 or even 2050, structures and engineering projects that require highly skilled and constant maintenance will be a grave danger to anyone around them. This includes huge dams, nuclear power stations, crazy skyscrapers, artificial islands, and any other such structure humanity might be stupid and arrogant enough to erect until then. Countries and regions that rely on importing most of their foodstuffs fall in the same category - good luck.

nanning

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2020, 07:16:23 AM »
This is where I'd like to live and it would be much better than the above posted dome:
(click to enlarge)
Not further away from reality, but living in it. Not inside but outside. No more bubbles.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

jens

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2020, 09:20:10 AM »
2100? Huh. The worst of climate change will have happened by that point already, except the sea level rise isn't complete yet (although well under way), because it would take a long time to melt out Antarctica, which is really the slowest process of climate change.

As for humans, it's hard for me to imagine civilization in modern form. The question is whether humans will exist somewhere in livable northern areas? Would they be in tribes, sitting next to a bonfire telling stories about how the world went extinct?

Can't really answer this, as there are a lot of unknowns at play here. Also the unknown of what will happen to nuclear powerplants, once civilization stops taking care of them.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2020, 02:23:35 PM »
It was for stuff like Antarctica melting that I originally posted a thread for 3000, but the moderators thought that was too far out.
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kassy

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2020, 03:54:37 PM »
Time frames are interesting.

The world of 2030. That is doable and extrapolation from today is very possible for that.

2100 is interesting too because it is the usual time frame. If you read the replies a lot are rather abstract. And we get to abstract numbers. Billions dead. Could be. We don´t know and we will never see because we will be dead then.

Meanwhile already people are suffering from global warming and this will only get worse.
Because we did not do enough future generations will have to invest into carbon capture. Building more dams or moving whole cities because of sea level rise etc. 

I wonder how they will explain it to the kids. In fact i am wondering how i would explain in 8 to 10 years or so. I don´t have kids myself but my best friend has them. We discussed a newspaper headline related to global warming when they were small (only one head peaking over the table).

Immediately they asked what that was and he explained it in a general way and they went to play but they grow and grow and learn to read and they will ask: Why?

Which is a bloody good question.

The 3k thread got responses that were even more general then here so it was all mere conjecture.

This subforum is for actual consequences. 2030 and 2100 are good timeframes for a more general discussion but focusing on carbon scenarios is probably more constructive then guestimating billions of death. 
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blumenkraft

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #25 on: June 08, 2020, 08:56:00 PM »
Extrapolate Covid-19 out of the variables at hand in September 2019.

 :P ;)
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bluice

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #26 on: June 08, 2020, 09:28:46 PM »
Extrapolate Covid-19 out of the variables at hand in September 2019.

 :P ;)
:D Hard to predict, the future is.

Aluminium

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #27 on: June 09, 2020, 01:35:26 AM »
Hazards of decreasing marine oxygen: the near-term and millennial-scale benefits of meeting the Paris climate targets

Quote
Ocean deoxygenation is recognized as key ecosystem stressor of the future ocean and associated climate-related ocean risks are relevant for current policy decisions. In particular, benefits of reaching the ambitious 1.5 ∘C warming target mentioned by the Paris Agreement compared to higher temperature targets are of high interest. Here, we model oceanic oxygen, warming and their compound hazard in terms of metabolic conditions on multi-millennial timescales for a range of equilibrium temperature targets. Scenarios where radiative forcing is stabilized by 2300 are used in ensemble simulations with the Bern3D Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. Transiently, the global mean ocean oxygen concentration decreases by a few percent under low forcing and by 40 % under high forcing.

In 2100 the worst consequences will only begin.

Wherestheice

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #28 on: June 09, 2020, 01:48:04 AM »
Time frames are interesting.

The world of 2030. That is doable and extrapolation from today is very possible for that.

2100 is interesting too because it is the usual time frame. If you read the replies a lot are rather abstract. And we get to abstract numbers. Billions dead. Could be. We don´t know and we will never see because we will be dead then.

Meanwhile already people are suffering from global warming and this will only get worse.
Because we did not do enough future generations will have to invest into carbon capture. Building more dams or moving whole cities because of sea level rise etc. 

I wonder how they will explain it to the kids. In fact i am wondering how i would explain in 8 to 10 years or so. I don´t have kids myself but my best friend has them. We discussed a newspaper headline related to global warming when they were small (only one head peaking over the table).

Immediately they asked what that was and he explained it in a general way and they went to play but they grow and grow and learn to read and they will ask: Why?

Which is a bloody good question.

The 3k thread got responses that were even more general then here so it was all mere conjecture.

This subforum is for actual consequences. 2030 and 2100 are good timeframes for a more general discussion but focusing on carbon scenarios is probably more constructive then guestimating billions of death.

With all due respect Kassy, I may not be dead in 2100. By that time I will be 99 years old. Unlikely given everything I know, but maybe I will be around somewhere
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kassy

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #29 on: June 09, 2020, 01:29:52 PM »
You must be one of our youngest members then. The average age is quite a bit higher. 
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Comradez

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #30 on: June 17, 2020, 08:34:31 PM »
I have been thinking of writing a novel based around the year 2100 that takes place in a prison colony in the Canadian arctic after a political upheaval of some sort in North America.  This would take place in a scenario of climate change that has not been mitigated by any coordinated policy response (i.e. business as usual). 

I'm trying to decide where the prison colony would logically be situated.  The main requirement for story purposes is that it would need to be somewhere in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, i.e. off of the North American mainland. 

The general idea is that the prison colony would have a central hub with guards' quarters, a port, power plant, district heating, dorms, and other central facilities in which the inmates would stay for the winter season, but there would also be scattered homesteads for each inmate in the surrounding countryside on which they might be allowed to go off and more or less do their own thing during the warm season.  Therefore, I'm looking for a spot that would have the potential for:
1. Port facilities.
2. River.
3. Southerly enough to have potential for making transition from tundra to taiga climate by 2100, and possibly supporting some farming.

I've picked out two possible settings for the fictional prison colony in which my characters would be set:

1.  On Victoria Island, with the port just north of Edinburgh Island (there appears to be deep water right up to the sheltered coastline at 68.558 N, 110.933 W).  Homesteads would be spread out northwards along the Nakyoktok River that flows into Johansen Bay.  See:
https://richedwardsimagery.wordpress.com/2019/09/07/johansen-bay-victoria-island-nunavut-canada/

Pros:  Somewhat sheltered from the ocean.  Might eventually have warm-ish summers if the sea ice in nearby Coronation Gulf were to start melting significantly earlier, such as by late May. 
Cons:  Hilly terrain.  Very poor (almost non-existent) soil.  Figure8blog described the neraby coastline as, "low and dreary, reddish dirt with as much differentiation mile after mile as that between infield and pitchers mound. Up close, the hills look neatly swept clean of life. Nothing sticks up higher than a medium sized rock. I think somewhere a giant groundsman is dragging his chain link fence across the land, readying the entire Arctic for the words, “Play ball!”"  http://figure8voyage.com/to-byron-bay/
How much different would this be in the year 2100 even with climate change?
Note:  Currently land with Inuit claims, but I'm assuming some sort of political upheaval infringes on this.  This imperialism itself would factor into the plot of the story. 

2.  On Banks Island, near the Kellett River, just north of Sachs Harbour. 

Pros:  Flatter, slightly better soil (less eroded).  Also, a nearby harbor and community already exists (albeit not a very deep one).
Cons:  Less sheltered from the ocean.  Summers would probably remain cooler, even if the Beaufort were to melt much earlier in the season.  Also, the existing residents of Sachs Harbour would probably have something to say about a prison colony being set up not far from them.  Could be an interesting plot point.
Note:  Currently bird sanctuary land, but I'm assuming some sort of political upheaval infringes on this.  This imperialism itself would factor into the plot of the story.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #31 on: June 17, 2020, 08:56:55 PM »
Comradez, I don't know how to help you pick a spot (pretty much all of the Arctic Archipelago has lousy soil, thanks to the glaciers) but when you get it written, send me a PM and I'll buy it!
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Comradez

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #32 on: June 17, 2020, 09:53:42 PM »
Thanks for the feedback Tom!  Yeah, soil would probably be the limiting factor, and soil formation by natural processes takes 200 years for 1 cm of soil...and that's after the active layer warms up and gets more roots growing in it.  So I guess I'd have to lean towards somewhere on Banks Island where the land appears to be a little less eroded.  It's a pity there are no good ports on Banks Island.  Even Sachs Harbour doesn't have a dock—shipping barges are the only vessels that can bring goods onto shore.  And there really aren't any natural harbors anywhere along the rest of the island.

kassy

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Re: World of 2100
« Reply #33 on: June 18, 2020, 12:35:27 AM »
That´s a bit off topic but an interesting project. I posted some comments in the OT OT thread.

some comments here
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.