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Phoenix

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Joe Biden
« on: June 12, 2020, 11:09:35 PM »
According to polls, Biden is in the drivers seat to become the 46th POTUS w/ less than 5 months until the election.

Seems like a good time to start covering his campaign and thinking about what a Biden presidency might mean for America and the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden

Much deserved attention has been given to Biden's choice for VP, a slot which he has promised to give to a woman. This pick is especially important as the probability of this person needing to take the reins before the next election is higher than usual.

Here's an article on a short list of 10 VP possibilities

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/politics/biden-kamala-harris-keisha-lance-bottoms-val-demings/index.html
« Last Edit: June 15, 2020, 06:35:53 PM by blumenkraft »

The Walrus

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2020, 11:54:54 PM »
Interesting list.  There are some on that list that I would not have placed there and others who I would have thought should not just be on the list, but high on the list.  But what do I know.  My choice for the nomination was Amy Klobuchar.  I know she was a long shot, but I think we has a real shot at a spot on the ticket.  I do not believe that he will choose Harris, as she is a liability when it comes to criminal justice.

Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2020, 11:55:39 PM »
A top issue for ASIF followers is AGW and Biden's climate policy will be closely followed. It is perhaps the most important policy on multiple fronts.

1) It's a critical issue to motivate young supporters to turn out and vote for Biden and other Democrats in November. It's a politically winning issue for Democrats.

2) Green infrastructure spending holds promise as an economic stimulus in the wake of the jobs meltdown

3) AGW is an existential threat to human civilization and geopolitical stability.

Biden's campaign has formed six task forces with the cooperation of Bernie Sanders on a variety of topics which seek the input of both neoliberal and progressive voices on policy alternatives. One of these task forces is dedicated to climate policy and has eight members, including three from the Sanders camp which is headlined by rising progress star Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The neoliberal contingent is headed by former Sec State John Kerry.

Some articles on Biden and climate policy.

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/28/21265416/joe-biden-climate-change-democrats-young-voters

https://www.eenews.net/stories/1063250661

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13052020/biden-ocasio-cortez-kerry-climate-task-force

https://www.axios.com/joe-biden-climate-change-2020-poll

The Walrus

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2020, 12:49:20 AM »
In normal election years, I might agree with your list.  However, this is not a "normal" election year.  I envision three issues topping the campaign; coronavirus, racial relations, and restarting the economy.  Sadly, I do not believe AGW will make the podium during the debates, except possibly to accomplish your #2 bullet. 

I believe that young voters are more concerned with their schooling, in wake of the virus, and the loss of potential jobs and internships in the future. 

While it is certainly an issue for the future, placing too much emphasis on this election cycle could be political suicide for the Democratic party.  The last thing the party wants is to be viewed as out of touch with the wants of the people.

Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2020, 12:50:52 AM »
My choice for the nomination was Amy Klobuchar.  I know she was a long shot, but I think we has a real shot at a spot on the ticket.  I do not believe that he will choose Harris, as she is a liability when it comes to criminal justice.

Klobuchar's chances took a huge dive with the George Floyd situation. She was a Minneapolis prosecutor and had a poor record when it came to going after crimes committed by police including a case involving Derek Chauvin, Floyd's killer. Klobuchar's appeal was more to party insiders and donors who want a demonstrated centrist neoliberal in the #2 spot. She was not at all appealing to young voters and minorities.

Politically, there is a lot of pressure for Biden to pick a black VP as that was the demographic that provided the boost in S. Carolina and Super Tuesday states to get him the nomination.

Harris checks a lot of identity boxes and is also seen by insiders as safely centrist enough. Not a huge draw to non-identity voters, but this election is all about Trump. People are going to show up to vote based upon his presence on the ballot. Harris seems like a dull safe pick at the moment.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2020, 01:26:16 AM »
My choice for the nomination was Amy Klobuchar.  I know she was a long shot, but I think we has a real shot at a spot on the ticket.  I do not believe that he will choose Harris, as she is a liability when it comes to criminal justice.

Klobuchar's chances took a huge dive with the George Floyd situation. She was a Minneapolis prosecutor and had a poor record when it came to going after crimes committed by police including a case involving Derek Chauvin, Floyd's killer. Klobuchar's appeal was more to party insiders and donors who want a demonstrated centrist neoliberal in the #2 spot. She was not at all appealing to young voters and minorities.

Politically, there is a lot of pressure for Biden to pick a black VP as that was the demographic that provided the boost in S. Carolina and Super Tuesday states to get him the nomination.

Harris checks a lot of identity boxes and is also seen by insiders as safely centrist enough. Not a huge draw to non-identity voters, but this election is all about Trump. People are going to show up to vote based upon his presence on the ballot. Harris seems like a dull safe pick at the moment.

I think this is a cogent analysis.  And I think the CNN article is thoughtful as well (surprisingly).  In terms of maximizing chance of winning, I might favor Grisham at this point.  But in terms of governing after the election, I might favor Susan Rice.  Certainly, the traditional US allies around the world would be reassured by the choice of a diplomat, and she seems very smart.  I'd have some confidence in her competence to govern when Biden retires (which may, and perhaps should, happen in less than 4 years).

Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2020, 01:58:06 AM »
I might favor Susan Rice.  Certainly, the traditional US allies around the world would be reassured by the choice of a diplomat, and she seems very smart.  I'd have some confidence in her competence to govern when Biden retires (which may, and perhaps should, happen in less than 4 years).

The US is coming apart at the seams internally. As an American, I'm not looking for a VP who appeals as a diplomat to allies. I'm looking for someone who can speak to the folks at home and solve domestic issues. Let Rice be Sec State.

blumenkraft

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2020, 08:55:16 AM »
My choice for the nomination was Amy Klobuchar.

The woman responsible for the US burning today.

If she did her job, George Floyd would be alive today.

She is done!

blumenkraft

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2020, 08:58:36 AM »

Some articles on Biden and climate policy.

Biden's climate policy: Do what the donors want.

If you want climate action, make Greenpeace donate to him.

Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2020, 12:25:42 PM »

Biden's climate policy: Do what the donors want.


The tide is turning and even Biden's donors are not monolithic in their objection to climate legislation. Not all rich people are stupid.

Bernie lost the election, but the undeniable progression of AGW, economic turmoil and an increasingly rowdy public will make green infrastructure spending hard to say no to.

Biden is a weather vane. In addition to pleasing the fat cats, he also wants to be popular. I understand the skepticism, but there is also some cause for optimism.




blumenkraft

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2020, 12:35:50 PM »
Not all rich people are stupid.

All CEOs have to maximize profits in the given framework. Stupidity is not the reason for corporations doing stupid things like lobbying for environmentally harmful legislation.

It needs the courage to challenge the whole framework or else we have to rely on 'the market' to solve things.

Quote
I understand the skepticism, but there is also some cause for optimism.

Skepticism or realism? IDK.

Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2020, 01:08:31 PM »
If we were to turn back the clock to 1930, there would have been good reason to doubt that FDR's agenda would ever come to pass. The fat cats were not for it.

History teaches us that there are moments when then pain of the masses overrides the prevailing paradigm. The interests of the common people are not infinitely compressible. We are seeing the pain break out on the streets of the US and some of the oligarchs are taking note.

I have no faith in the benevolence of the oligarchs. I have faith in the survival instinct to rise in everyone.

Freegrass

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2020, 02:39:08 PM »
The last presidential election was about border security. This election seems to be going towards domestic security. From "build that wall" to "save the police". And who'll win that fight do you think?
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Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2020, 03:22:52 PM »
The last presidential election was about border security. This election seems to be going towards domestic security. From "build that wall" to "save the police". And who'll win that fight do you think?

There is almost no space between Biden's history and mainstream GOP thinking on policing. Biden was the Senator most responsible for the push to put an additional 100k police on the street in the '90's with concentration in minority areas.

Trump has isolated himself from even people like McConnell with his blatant racism and reaction to the Floyd killing. Biden wins this contrast easy and Trump's handling of Covid is also pretty terrible in the minds of old voters who might die from it.

Trump is beating himself, Biden just has to show up.

The last election was not about border security IMO. It came down to a very close vote in the rust belt states of PA, WI and MI which enabled Trump to win the electoral college despite Clinton having three million more votes. It was a rejection of Clinton as personally unlikeable  or non-inspiring and establishment neoliberal polices which outsourced rust belt jobs overseas. Trump was inspiring to evangelicals who came out in big numbers for him to pull it out. Being an outsider, he could rep himself as an agent of change in 2016. Now he has a record.

The Walrus

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2020, 03:34:23 PM »
The last presidential election was about border security. This election seems to be going towards domestic security. From "build that wall" to "save the police". And who'll win that fight do you think?

There is almost no space between Biden's history and mainstream GOP thinking on policing. Biden was the Senator most responsible for the push to put an additional 100k police on the street in the '90's with concentration in minority areas.

Trump has isolated himself from even people like McConnell with his blatant racism and reaction to the Floyd killing. Biden wins this contrast easy and Trump's handling of Covid is also pretty terrible in the minds of old voters who might die from it.

Trump is beating himself, Biden just has to show up.

The last election was not about border security IMO. It came down to a very close vote in the rust belt states of PA, WI and MI which enabled Trump to win the electoral college despite Clinton having three million more votes. It was a rejection of Clinton as personally unlikeable  or non-inspiring and establishment neoliberal polices which outsourced rust belt jobs overseas. Trump was inspiring to evangelicals who came out in big numbers for him to pull it out. Being an outsider, he could rep himself as an agent of change in 2016. Now he has a record.

I think you nailed it perfectly.  Biden is much more likeable than Clinton was, and just has to not falter.  Biden should win back the traditionally Democratic states of MI and PA, which should be enough.  WI is anyone's guess.

Freegrass

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #15 on: June 13, 2020, 04:50:43 PM »
It's the economy stupid!

If the stock market stays as high as it is now, Trump has a powerful message to sell. One week is an eternity in politics, and who's the best at dictating the message? Do you really think Biden will be able to talk about his policies? Do you think they can't do to him what they did to Clinton?

I completely agree with you, it's looking really bad for Trump right now, but do you really think people will remember this in November?

The only unknown is the pandemic. But what if the bastard is right, and Oxfort does come out with a vaccine before the election? Who'll win then? Trump will be seen as a genius...

And I always said that it will be a third party that will decide this election.


To be continued...
« Last Edit: June 13, 2020, 05:21:44 PM by Freegrass »
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Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #16 on: June 13, 2020, 06:01:46 PM »
FG, I'm curious where you get the information that informs your opinion of what motivates the American voter?

You have mentioned that you watch MSNBC. Have you followed US politics for a long time?

Some of the ideas you mentioned don't seem to reflect a realistic appraisal of the electorate that I know and I live here and participate in political campaigns. I don't a potential stock market rally as influencing many votes and I don't see a vaccine being released before the election. If a vaccine were miraculously released, I don't see Trump getting the credit or being forgiven for mishandling the crisis so far. We see the country rejecting his overt racism and authoritarianism.

He was able to play a good con game in 2016 as a candidate with no political record. Now he has a record and an opponent who is not hated.

Trump is a grifter out for himself. He sold every decision to the highest bidder in the swamp and gave up on any policy agenda that went against the swamp. McConnell sets the legislative agenda which is basically to maintain status quo and Trump has been paid off to go along. He will get hammered in the election and probably make a challenge to Fox News somehow after the election to try and monetize his followers.

Look at the 2018 midterms. Trump has a gift for bringing people who don't like him to the polls.


Freegrass

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #17 on: June 13, 2020, 06:30:12 PM »
I've been following American and global politics for a long time now. It's what I do. American politics I started following closely since the Iraq war after 9/11. But since the day Trump announced his candidacy - on the 15th of June, 2015 I think it was - I haven't turned it off. I have MSNBC on almost 24/7 because this is historic. I have made many prediction that came through, and I understand Trump completely, because he and I have the same Narcissistic Personality Disorder. So I understand how Trump reasons. Did you know he actually tried to lose the election? He never wanted to become president. He just wanted to increase the value of his name and start a media empire, which he still want to do! Don't think Trump will go away if he were to lose.

Some of the ideas you mentioned don't seem to reflect a realistic appraisal of the electorate that I know and I live here and participate in political campaigns.
I would advise you to get out of your bubble.

But don't get me wrong! I completely understand and agree with what you say. People are sick and tired of Trump. There is no way in hell that he can get reelected. I just don't rule it out yet. I won't make that mistake twice. Clinton was a sure win as well...
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Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #18 on: June 13, 2020, 07:04:05 PM »
I have MSNBC on almost 24/7.....I would advise you to get out of your bubble.


MSNBC is a bubble.

I have knocked doors, phone banked, text banked and engaged with supporters of all the other candidates online in reddit forums and facebook. I'm directly engaging with a representative cross section of the American public. Engaging with Trump supporters is very difficult for someone who wants to educate people about AGW.

Freegrass

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #19 on: June 13, 2020, 10:01:41 PM »
I have MSNBC on almost 24/7.....I would advise you to get out of your bubble.

MSNBC is a bubble.
MSNBC is the heart of the rich asholes in charge. You can learn a lot from reading between the lines. I used to watch Fox News as well, but that became increasingly unbearable. Now I just watch the Five.

It's cool what you do. Keep doing it! I just want to understand the system so we can try to fix it...We need a complete overhaul...
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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #20 on: June 13, 2020, 10:31:20 PM »
Quote
This pick is especially important as the probability of this person needing to take the reins before the next election is higher than usual.
Because of Biden's age? Is his health in question?
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #21 on: June 13, 2020, 10:31:57 PM »
 
But don't get me wrong! I completely understand and agree with what you say. People are sick and tired of Trump. There is no way in hell that he can get reelected. I just don't rule it out yet. I won't make that mistake twice. Clinton was a sure win as well...

Hillary had a consistent 1-2 percent lead in the polls going in to the election.  For statistically-minded pollsters, that was enough to predict the outcome. Yes, if that's the kind of number we see at the end of October, your caution is merited.  But it's not looking like that right now.

We have 100,000 dead Americans from the pandemic right now.  Almost all because of a bungled Federal response.  We'll almost surely have 200,000 dead by November.  I can't imagine Trump recovering from this carnage.

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #22 on: June 13, 2020, 10:39:17 PM »
 
But don't get me wrong! I completely understand and agree with what you say. People are sick and tired of Trump. There is no way in hell that he can get reelected. I just don't rule it out yet. I won't make that mistake twice. Clinton was a sure win as well...

Hillary had a consistent 1-2 percent lead in the polls going in to the election.  For statistically-minded pollsters, that was enough to predict the outcome. Yes, if that's the kind of number we see at the end of October, your caution is merited.  But it's not looking like that right now.

We have 100,000 dead Americans from the pandemic right now.  Almost all because of a bungled Federal response.  We'll almost surely have 200,000 dead by November.  I can't imagine Trump recovering from this carnage.
With Trump's luck, he may make Covid a scapegoat...everything going wrong is because of the Chinese wet market.
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The Walrus

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #23 on: June 13, 2020, 10:46:36 PM »
 
But don't get me wrong! I completely understand and agree with what you say. People are sick and tired of Trump. There is no way in hell that he can get reelected. I just don't rule it out yet. I won't make that mistake twice. Clinton was a sure win as well...

Hillary had a consistent 1-2 percent lead in the polls going in to the election.  For statistically-minded pollsters, that was enough to predict the outcome. Yes, if that's the kind of number we see at the end of October, your caution is merited.  But it's not looking like that right now.

We have 100,000 dead Americans from the pandemic right now.  Almost all because of a bungled Federal response.  We'll almost surely have 200,000 dead by November.  I can't imagine Trump recovering from this carnage.

Hillary had a double digit lead in June, but say it shrink towards the election.  It could happen to Biden also, but I think not.  Two factors that could help Trump are those mentioned; the stock market and a vaccine.  I think those that want to blame him or give him credit will do so regardless of what happens.  Never underestimate the opportunity for the incumbent to be presidential.  Obama‚Äôs response to hurricane sandy bolstered his re-election.  Carters response to the hostage crisis killed his.

Freegrass

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #24 on: June 14, 2020, 01:56:30 AM »
There is one thing that gives me hope though... Trump fucks up just about anything he tries to do. Last time he tried to lose, and he won. Now he's actually trying to win...
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Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #25 on: June 14, 2020, 03:29:20 AM »
Let's try to steer the conversation away from centering around Trump and try to make this thread center around developments relating to Biden and what his candidacy might mean for the American situation and the world.

I am interested in the dynamic taking place in his climate change task force where the tug of war is taking place between young people like AOC and the head of Sunrise Movement and Biden appointees John Kerry and Pelosi acolyte Kathy Castor.

Kerry has some credentials in the "baby steps" approach to addressing climate change including the Paris Accord which is woefully inadequate as a solution. He has spoken about goals related to carbon neutrality by 2050.

For me, the years that people talk about are a good indicator of their seriousness in effecting change. People who use the year 2030 when talking about goals understand that action must be taken now and convey the necessary sense of urgency. People talking about 2050 are signaling near-term tolerance for BAU.




Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #26 on: June 15, 2020, 09:07:03 AM »
This should be one of the better campaign ads of all time of behalf of Biden....in the words of current Trump backer Lindsay Graham.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lindsey-graham-praises-joe-biden-in-what-might-be-the-best-campaign-ad-ever-according-to-harvard-prof-2020-06-14

Freegrass

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #27 on: June 15, 2020, 12:46:00 PM »
It is an awesome ad indeed. Just saw it on morning Joe. I'm curious if Lindsay is happy with it. I think he secretly is. Or maybe not even secretly? Maybe he approved it behind closed doors?

I also wonder how many repukes regret their impeachment vote now...
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Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #28 on: June 15, 2020, 01:08:44 PM »
It is an awesome ad indeed. Just saw it on morning Joe. I'm curious if Lindsay is happy with it. I think he secretly is. Or maybe not even secretly? Maybe he approved it behind closed doors?

I also wonder how many repukes regret their impeachment vote now...

I think Senator Graham is not happy with it. His comments about Trump were made during the 2016 primary when the establishment wanted to stop Trump. After Trump won the nomination, Graham has become a big time ass kisser for Trump.

Trump is popular with GOP voters in S. Carolina and this ad with Graham praising Joe Biden complicates Graham's senate election this fall.


Freegrass

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #29 on: June 15, 2020, 01:40:10 PM »
Behind closed doors the establishment republicans hate Trump's guts. They love him for the judges, but truly hate him for what he's doing to their America...
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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #30 on: June 15, 2020, 01:52:33 PM »
Behind closed doors the establishment republicans hate Trump's guts. They love him for the judges, but truly hate him for what he's doing to their America...

Yes.  They opposed him in 2016, and oppose him still today.  They are reluctantly supporting his re-election because he is the party candidate. 

Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #31 on: June 15, 2020, 02:38:13 PM »
Behind closed doors the establishment republicans hate Trump's guts. They love him for the judges, but truly hate him for what he's doing to their America...

FG, let's try to make an effort not to keep pivoting back to Trump as the central focus of this thread.

This is what the establishment (such as MSNBC) wants...for the awfulness of Trump to suck all the attention away from the awfulness of the establishment politicians like Biden and Graham. Let's keep the focus here on things relating to Biden.

Freegrass

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #32 on: June 15, 2020, 02:53:20 PM »
You just posted a republican ad and started talking about Trump after I talked about Lindsay.  ???
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Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #33 on: June 15, 2020, 03:13:45 PM »
You just posted a republican ad and started talking about Trump after I talked about Lindsay.  ???

The ad is totally relevant to this thread because it shows Graham praising Biden. It doesn't matter who paid for the ad.

I tried to answer your question about whether Graham was likely to be secretly supporting this pro-Biden ad and I explained why I don't think that's the case.

Try to keep Biden or his potential appointees, allies or policies as the subject.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2020, 03:31:38 PM by Phoenix »

blumenkraft

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #34 on: June 15, 2020, 04:49:58 PM »
It will be hard to talk about the biden campaign without also talking about the bunker boi i guess.

However, please refrain from meta discussions. If you think a post is off-topic, report it to the moderators.

Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #35 on: June 15, 2020, 05:52:05 PM »
It will be hard to talk about the biden campaign without also talking about the bunker boi i guess.

However, please refrain from meta discussions. If you think a post is off-topic, report it to the moderators.

I'm not sure that the tendency for all political discussion to orbit around Trump is meta discussion. This seems to be the political objective of the entire US neoliberal media apparatus.

On a scale of 0-10, Trump is a 0. They want us to ignore that Biden is a 2 and any comparison to standards which are being established in other western democracies. We are systematically being brainwashed to focus on Trump's cartoonishly evil presence as a means of being bludgeoned into accepting a neoliberal shit sandwich.

Biden has been at the epicenter of neoliberal policy and his nomination was in large part due to the media brainwashing around fear of Trump.

Perhaps I should have left the word "campaign" out of the thread title ? Can you adjust that ?

Freegrass

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #36 on: June 15, 2020, 05:59:46 PM »
I think this thread is useless. All this should be discussed in the 2020 Elections thread.
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Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #37 on: June 15, 2020, 06:24:40 PM »
I think this thread is useless. All this should be discussed in the 2020 Elections thread.

Biden is the current favorite to become the next POTUS. A country with the world's largest military, GDP and until recently, the world's leader producer of fossil fuels. Also the country with the second highest carbon emissions globally and an indispensable part of any potential global agreement on emission reductions.

As the prospective chief executive, he and his potential administration are important to any outlook  for tackling AGW which is a topic of interest to this forum. I think it's worthwhile to begin accumulating information about what his administration might bring to the table. I'm content to let BL make the call.

If you think it's useless, no one is forcing you to pay attention to it.

blumenkraft

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #38 on: June 15, 2020, 06:52:07 PM »
Perhaps I should have left the word "campaign" out of the thread title ? Can you adjust that ?

Done.


The Walrus

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Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« Reply #39 on: June 15, 2020, 08:53:01 PM »
I think this thread is useless. All this should be discussed in the 2020 Elections thread.

Biden is the current favorite to become the next POTUS. A country with the world's largest military, GDP and until recently, the world's leader producer of fossil fuels. Also the country with the second highest carbon emissions globally and an indispensable part of any potential global agreement on emission reductions.

As the prospective chief executive, he and his potential administration are important to any outlook  for tackling AGW which is a topic of interest to this forum. I think it's worthwhile to begin accumulating information about what his administration might bring to the table. I'm content to let BL make the call.

If you think it's useless, no one is forcing you to pay attention to it.

while it is certainly true Biden is currently the favorite, one must remember that Clinton was the favorite until 1:35 a.m. on morning after election day.

Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden
« Reply #40 on: June 16, 2020, 12:23:22 AM »
Krystal and Sagaar review Biden's VP options. Susan Rice moving up the ranks.


Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden
« Reply #41 on: June 16, 2020, 11:00:06 AM »
One thing that's very different vs. 2016 is that Hillary was just so damn unpopular. Joe doesn't have that problem.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/biden-far-less-unpopular-hillary-clinton-was-four-years-ago-n1231055


blumenkraft

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Re: Joe Biden
« Reply #42 on: June 16, 2020, 11:02:29 AM »
PSA: Krystal and Sagaar (The Hill Rising) are right-winger with the mission to drive partisanship.

Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden
« Reply #43 on: June 16, 2020, 11:21:42 AM »
PSA: Krystal and Sagaar (The Hill Rising) are right-winger with the mission to drive partisanship.

?????

Krystal is basically a Berniecrat.

She and Sagaar are trying to promote an agenda which unites the working class left and working class right.

blumenkraft

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Re: Joe Biden
« Reply #44 on: June 16, 2020, 11:44:34 AM »
Try keeping it in your mind, Phoenix. You'll see it sooner or later.

Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden
« Reply #45 on: June 17, 2020, 06:08:08 PM »
Reuters IPSOS poll gives Biden a 13 point lead. He's come along way since getting blown out out in Iowa and New Hampshire.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/503103-biden-lead-over-trump-grows-to-13-points-poll

For reference, LBJ beat Goldwater by 22.6% in 1964.

A couple Cat 5's landfalls, a super duper heat wave and a robust second wave of Covid-19 could result in one of the epic blowouts in US electoral history.

The Walrus

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Re: Joe Biden
« Reply #46 on: June 17, 2020, 06:19:17 PM »
Reuters IPSOS poll gives Biden a 13 point lead. He's come along way since getting blown out out in Iowa and New Hampshire.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/503103-biden-lead-over-trump-grows-to-13-points-poll

For reference, LBJ beat Goldwater by 22.6% in 1964.

A couple Cat 5's landfalls, a super duper heat wave and a robust second wave of Covid-19 could result in one of the epic blowouts in US electoral history.

Wishful thinking does not win elections.  Fivethirtyeight did an analysis of every presidential re-election since 1984, and found that the economy is the most important factor, followed by approval rating.  While his approval rating is low (always has been), the economy has weather the Covid crisis thus far.  I do not envision any of your possibilities occurring before November.  Hence, I foresee another close election.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-reelection-may-hinge-on-the-economy-and-coronavirus/

sidd

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Re: Joe Biden
« Reply #47 on: June 18, 2020, 12:29:58 AM »
The US stock market has weathered the impact, not the economy. There is a huge wave of evictions coming and a great amount of the food service/travel/hospitality industry will go out of business.

I deal with about a couple thousand food service businesses in midatlantic/midwest (or rather I did, before the pandemic). They tell me about half do not plan to reopen, another third are uncertain. The reaminder are struggling to stay afloat on delivery/takeout.

Commercial real estate has tanked, not just restaurant space, but office space can be also had for a song. Commercial realestate brokers are telling me that about half of the office rentals are behind on rent, and most  intend to cut their lease area by 50% or more. 

Residential real estate purchase/prices is holding up for now fuelled by low mortgage rates. I do not expect this to last since a great amount of present residential real estate demand is pulled forward from the future. But rents are uniformly down from coast to coast.
 
Not looking too good for trump reelection.

sidd

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Re: Joe Biden
« Reply #48 on: June 18, 2020, 04:08:49 PM »
The US stock market has weathered the impact, not the economy. There is a huge wave of evictions coming and a great amount of the food service/travel/hospitality industry will go out of business.

I deal with about a couple thousand food service businesses in midatlantic/midwest (or rather I did, before the pandemic). They tell me about half do not plan to reopen, another third are uncertain. The reaminder are struggling to stay afloat on delivery/takeout.

Commercial real estate has tanked, not just restaurant space, but office space can be also had for a song. Commercial realestate brokers are telling me that about half of the office rentals are behind on rent, and most  intend to cut their lease area by 50% or more. 

Residential real estate purchase/prices is holding up for now fuelled by low mortgage rates. I do not expect this to last since a great amount of present residential real estate demand is pulled forward from the future. But rents are uniformly down from coast to coast.
 
Not looking too good for trump reelection.

sidd

Of course certain sectors have been and will continue to be hit harder than others.  The residential housing market has shown remarkable resilience and has increased in value during the pandemic.  While the food service industry has tanked, retail grocers have experienced increased sales.  It is still too early to claim that the economy is killing his reelection chances. 

Phoenix

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Re: Joe Biden
« Reply #49 on: June 18, 2020, 04:53:54 PM »
So, what does Biden offer on the economy ?

First, Biden owes a political debt to the black community who are disproportionately represented in the bottom tier economically. If nothing is delivered for them, the Democrats are opening the door for more protests / uprising.   

Biden begins with a $1.7T green stimulus plan. One tenth of what Sanders proposed, but his opponent offers nothing.

Biden has moved toward the Buttigieg college plan. Basically, a lot of debt relief for people earning less than $125k /year.

Biden has proposed a huge increase in safety net by removing the cap on social security wages.

Biden's opponent had it going good with the economy until Covid came along. But the opponent is tethered to a party that is religiously committed to pushing wealth from public to private hands. Now that the situation calls for public investment, Biden's opponent is not a credible bearer of solutions to the current economic problems.

Biden is a tough person for the GOP to run against because he's basically a Republican with a Democratic label. Biden was against Roe v. Wade in 1973. He put the extra cops on the streets and he sucks up to big money interests and big military spending. He's basically Bob Dole. He's not like Hillary in his ability to motivate the other side to show up and vote against him.

This cycle has blowout written all over it.