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Freegrass

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The Collapse Of America
« on: June 16, 2020, 07:50:14 PM »
And so it begins...

Members of armed civilian group arrested, suspected gunman identified after man is shot at Albuquerque protest

June 16, 2020


Protesters in Albuquerque wrapped a chain around the neck of a bronze statue and began tugging and chanting, “Tear it down,” shortly before sunset on Monday. Their efforts to pull down a monument of Spanish conquistador Juan de Oñate suddenly stopped as four shots rang out.

Most people instinctively turned toward the noise, videos from the scene show. A few screamed. Just yards away, a group of men sporting militarylike garb and carrying semiautomatic rifles formed a protective circle around the gunman.

The gunshots, which left one man in critical but stable condition, have set off a cascade of public outcry denouncing the unregulated ‘militia’’s presence and the shooting. On Tuesday morning, the Albuquerque Police Department announced that detectives had arrested Stephen Ray Baca, 31, in connection with the shooting.

Baca was booked into the Metro Detention Center on a charge of aggravated battery, police spokesman Gilbert Gallegos Jr. said in a statement.

The victim has not been identified. Authorities said the investigation is ongoing.

“The heavily armed individuals who flaunted themselves at the protest, calling themselves a ‘civil guard,’ were there for one reason: To menace protesters, to present an unsanctioned show of unregulated force,” New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) said in a statement. “To menace the people of New Mexico with weaponry — with an implicit threat of violence — is on its face unacceptable; that violence did indeed occur is unspeakable.”

Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller (D) said the statue would now be speedily removed as an “urgent matter of public safety” until authorities determine a next step.

“The shooting tonight was a tragic, outrageous and unacceptable act of violence and it has no place in our city,” Keller said in a statement. “Our diverse community will not be deterred by acts meant to divide or silence us. Our hearts go out [to] the victim, his family and witnesses whose lives were needlessly threatened tonight.”

Recent protests against Oñate statues in New Mexico mirror similar calls to tear down Confederate monuments amid a rise in Black Lives Matter demonstrations following the killing of George Floyd, who died as a Minneapolis police officer knelt on his neck for nearly nine minutes.

In the hours leading up to the violence on Monday, protesters faced off with members of an armed group of civilians that calls itself the New Mexico Civil Guard and counterprotesters toting “All lives matter” signs.

One group sought to tear down a monument to Oñate, a 16th-century despot who massacred indigenous people. The other set out as self-designated protectors of the statue, creating a heavily armed presence at the park in Albuquerque’s historic Old Town. Aside from a few small scuffles over signs near the monument, the protest had largely been peaceful, although tense at times.

Then, a white man in a blue T-shirt appeared to rile the crowd, according to video obtained by KOB4. People erupted in shouts, and the man took a few steps back. A masked protester swung a skateboard and struck him in the shoulder. The man backpedaled out of the crowd but continued to exchange shouts with protesters.

Someone in the video encouraged people to follow the man and get his license plate number. Several people followed him, and one tackled him to the ground. As he tried to stand back up and three people tried to hit him again, the man in blue pulled a gun and fired four shots, striking one man and scattering the crowd.

In a second video that captured the moments following the shooting, the gunman sat in the middle of a road as the New Mexico Civil Guard members formed a circle around him. One man carrying a semiautomatic rifle, and wearing camouflage fatigues and a military-style helmet, kicked the handgun away from the man and stood with his foot on top of the weapon.

Police responded to the scene with tear gas and stun grenades to force the crowd back. Officers detained several members of the armed group, according to reporters and witnesses at the scene. Video showed officers placing the apparent gunman into a cruiser.

Police have not released any information about the suspected shooter or said whether they think he has any connection to the armed group.

The organization, which identified itself to a New York Times reporter covering the protest Monday, has a controversial history. The right-wing group has repeatedly shown up at Black Lives Matter protests in recent weeks with guns and militarylike garb.

On Facebook, the group has shared materials encouraging people to arm themselves, promoted military training on infantry tactics and “ambushing,” and shared multiple posts opposing the leveling of monuments to Confederate figures in the South and Oñate in New Mexico. Members of the group recently told the Eastern New Mexico News that their aim was to protect businesses from damage during protests. They said they had been in contact with police and were following guidance given to them by officials.

Groups like the New Mexico Civil Guard and other armed far-right counterprotesters, often referred to as “militias,” have been a controversial presence at Black Lives Matter protests across the United States. At an Albuquerque protest earlier this month, video of police talking to an armed ‘militia’ group spurred allegations that officers were coordinating with the group in an official capacity, although police denied the claim.

At least one New Mexico lawmaker viewed the group’s consistent presence at protests as suspicious enough to warrant further inquiry. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) called on the Justice Department to investigate the shooting Monday night.

“This is not the first report of heavily armed civilian militias appearing at protests around New Mexico in recent weeks. These extremists cannot be allowed to silence peaceful protests or inflict violence,” Heinrich said on Twitter on Monday night.

Some critics have drawn contrasts between police response to largely peaceful and unarmed Black Lives Matter protests and the heavily armed demonstrations against coronavirus restrictions in April and May. Monday’s shooting also led some critics to note that the armed civilians and alleged shooter were taken into custody by police without incident, but the Black Lives Matter protests are responding to incidents in which police have fatally shot unarmed black men.

“Notice how calmly they’re all being detained,” former housing secretary Julián Castro tweeted Monday night. “Don’t tell me George Floyd and Rayshard Brooks and Eric Garner — who did not harm anybody — couldn’t be treated differently.”

Meanwhile, Albuquerque Police Chief Michael Geier vowed to investigate any group that sought to stoke violence at the protest.

“We are receiving reports about vigilante groups possibly instigating this violence,” Geier said in a statement. “If this is true [we] will be holding them accountable to the fullest extent of the law, including federal hate group designation and prosecution.”

Katie Mettler contributed to this report.
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

kassy

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2020, 08:03:14 PM »
This seems redundant (and it did not begin there).
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Freegrass

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2020, 08:10:59 PM »
This seems redundant (and it did not begin there).
No, the seeds for this have been planted a very long time ago, but now it seems they are feeding it on brainwash TV... This was inevitable...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2020, 12:38:34 AM »
OMG!!! Bolton is a greedy piece of shit without any respect for the country he swore to protect...
He's worse than Trump!

What a disgusting hypocritical lying greedy sack of shit...

But we already knew that, didn't we?
« Last Edit: June 25, 2020, 12:47:36 AM by Freegrass »
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

kassy

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2020, 02:03:57 PM »
What did they say on TV this time?

Also how does this known fact (him being a GPOS) relate to the collapse of America? (N? S? Middle?)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2020, 03:26:08 PM »
OMG!!! Bolton is a greedy piece of shit without any respect for the country he swore to protect...
He's worse than Trump!

What a disgusting hypocritical lying greedy sack of shit...

But we already knew that, didn't we?
Trump should've kept him in the tent - pissing out,
Now he's outside the tent - pissing in.

I believe that's a lesson in Statecraft from one Lyndon B. Johnson.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2020, 03:39:46 PM »
OMG!!! Bolton is a greedy piece of shit without any respect for the country he swore to protect...
He's worse than Trump!

What a disgusting hypocritical lying greedy sack of shit...

But we already knew that, didn't we?
Trump should've kept him in the tent - pissing out,
Now he's outside the tent - pissing in.

I believe that's a lesson in Statecraft from one Lyndon B. Johnson.

Tents are usually put up in the wilderness. If you encounter a Bolton in the wilderness, the civilized thing to do is bury it there so it can't make its way back to civilization and cause a genocide.
big time oops

The Walrus

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2020, 03:58:20 PM »
This seems redundant (and it did not begin there).

We have two sides which seem to have a total disregard for the other or the law.

kassy

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2020, 08:25:51 PM »
Possibly not new. What was #3 about?

I also have a really hard time relating these responses from GF thread.

 #306
Because you are doing exactly what MSNBC and Fucks news and so many others in power want us to do... Divide and conquer... And rob them blind while they are busy hating each other with all the shit that we are creating for them to divert attention from the real shit we are doing...


#308
If you want the water to stop boiling, you need to turn off the fire instead of complaining about how hot it's getting...

And this.

It´s not like the first post is actually a cogent argument for collapse more just a random article.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Villabolo

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2020, 06:25:23 PM »
This seems redundant (and it did not begin there).
No, the seeds for this have been planted a very long time ago, but now it seems they are feeding it on brainwash TV... This was inevitable...

One thing that is never mentioned, or even thought of, is why this divide started and how long it's been in the U.S..

It's the result of 33 years of hate radio (Rush Limbaugh and shock jocks) and 24 years of hate televison (Fox News). Liberals had hardly any representation on the airwaves. Thus the situation rests solely on the right wing and those who represent them.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2020, 06:33:59 PM by Villabolo »

interstitial

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2020, 09:58:12 PM »
In general both sides demonize the other side for their beliefs not just conservatives. liberals are very intolerant of people who don't agree with them just like conservatives. This is how those who are in power keep us distracted fighting amongst ourselves. I disagree with one side on some issues and the other side on other issues. If you do not I think you should meet people who disagree with you and spend some time not trying to change them but to understand why they think that. Sometimes people say something like don't be a sheep and follow that side. Not being a sheep is about forming your own opinion not which side you choose. The points made in the media are about a fantasy world much simpler than reality talk to real people and not just ones that parrot the propaganda. Often if the people involved are willing to listen to the other side people are not as far apart on issues as they think.

The Walrus

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2020, 10:43:48 PM »
In general both sides demonize the other side for their beliefs not just conservatives. liberals are very intolerant of people who don't agree with them just like conservatives. This is how those who are in power keep us distracted fighting amongst ourselves. I disagree with one side on some issues and the other side on other issues. If you do not I think you should meet people who disagree with you and spend some time not trying to change them but to understand why they think that. Sometimes people say something like don't be a sheep and follow that side. Not being a sheep is about forming your own opinion not which side you choose. The points made in the media are about a fantasy world much simpler than reality talk to real people and not just ones that parrot the propaganda. Often if the people involved are willing to listen to the other side people are not as far apart on issues as they think.

Well said.  It is not one-sided, but rather those on either side refuse to acknowledge the beliefs of those on the other.  Those that point out the splinters in their opponents eyes, fail to take notice of the plank in their own.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2020, 12:15:33 AM »
Villabolo, I remember how much liberals hated Nixon (watch All In The Family) so some of that has been going on longer than 33 years, but I agree it seems even more strident now.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

longwalks1

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2020, 01:18:13 PM »
Another either or dichotomy.   

When we were engaging in mass non-violent civil disobedience ( say 400 line crossers at SNIC Bellevue south of Omaha - home to usOfa nuclear war planning) training was deeply committed to all understanding  the humanity and sacredness of all the people serving in the military.   Or the 1000's plus getting ban and bar letters at Fort Benning Georgia. These days it is present in the re-invigoration of ciivil disobedience in Germany and Belgium for usOfa nuclear weapons based there. Legislators are climbing over the the strangle wire at German bases with nuclear weapons postioned there.  (My favourite method of going over the strangle wire involved hand sewn quilts by WELCA (Women of the Evangelical Lutheran Church).)

However for the dissonance today, there was absolutely nothing there in the decades past  to match the banality and the evil of Rush Limbaugh (opiate addict like some Nazis) and his compadres.  And it was brought to you via the rampant corporatism present everywhere in the usOfa.   All the radio stations (and tv) were being gobbled up in near horizontal and vertical monopolies - the saving grace from being dismembered was that the largest corporations involved stopped at it being a cartel.   

There was nothing like it with the liberals.  (Please do not associate all liberals with the left).  Today, the Democrats and Republicans use bascially the same ad campaign, advertising techniques, basically propoganda.  The Democrats, especially the Neo-Liberal ilk are getting almost as good at selling hate and the Koch-CocaCola capitalists.   For me it is a sense of deja vu at the old vehemence betwixt the Socialist Workers Party, Revolutionary Communist party etc etc all the Trotskyist wings of Marxism back in the days of the 70's and 80's.   For Biden to call Trump a crook and heartless man is as senselessly chimerical as for Trump to call Biden a  hard left Liberal or soft on crime.  For the media purveyors, the venom is a veneer between tweedle-dee and tweedle-dumber.   

I still practice the techniques of finding the human in all, it is a core practice of anyone travelling the path the some guy named Jeshua from Nazareth as well as  followers of Gautama Buddha.  Or look at the books on Compassion by US house of Rep. Tim Ryan  from a Christian perspective or the book By Thich Nhat Hahn.   You can see the similariites between Ryan's'"A Mindful Nation: How a Simple Practice Can Help Us Reduce Stress, Improve Performance, and Recapture the American Spirit" and Thich, but his acknoledgement credits John Kabat-Zinn more.   

Yea, try finding that book or others like it or anything involving radical (or even not so radical) compassion in your local usOfa library (It was in the Winnipeg MB library). Try finding that on the airwaves there.   What is found there is the adage "Does it sell soap".  Chaos (an integral part of The Apprentice and numerous political campains that got free advertising via chaos), lies and half truths and division are integral part of advertising and the media at large in the usOfa.  Dark fucking days ahead.  I would really really really like to go back to Canada, but if you work at compassion with as much effort as others work at capitalism - well you are unable  to be 1000 km away (edit from your parents)  when they need help as they age and no one else will step up to the plate. 

I console myself with the words Muslims that I sheltered the homeless with in community told me,  "The true jihad is found to be waged in the heart."  And it is something that has to be practiced every day in these very dark fucking days in the US. 
« Last Edit: September 20, 2020, 02:33:34 PM by longwalks1 »

bosbas

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2020, 02:11:13 PM »
The US election system where the winner takes it all guarantees that those acting as sheep and flock together the most are the ultimate winner. The GOP has a better reputation than the Dems in controlling the herd. That pluralist election system should be on top of the list of things that need an overhaul.

The Walrus

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2020, 05:45:35 PM »
The US election system where the winner takes it all guarantees that those acting as sheep and flock together the most are the ultimate winner. The GOP has a better reputation than the Dems in controlling the herd. That pluralist election system should be on top of the list of things that need an overhaul.

It is not much different from many European countries, where whichever party wins a majority of seats in parliamentary elections selects the next prime minister. 

Freegrass

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2020, 12:55:00 AM »
It's over...
Biden will win big!

#DonaldChump (please start using this hashtag! His niece said he hates to be called Donald, and Donald likes to used nicknames. So it's Donald the big fat chump!)

Just a few more days until the debate, and Donald Chump is getting nervous...
When he gets nervous, his ego takes over, and he just crossed a line even the far right is hesitant to cross...

WHERE ARE THE JEWS AGAINST FASCISM?  >:( >:( >:(
...
Americannot doesn't want to have "a king". Americannot is all about freedamn...
They don't want dictators...

The only question is; How stupid did their educational system make these idiots?
It used to be 50% - if I recall correctly...
It's 40% now of Americannots that still believe in creationism...

They're not supporting Chump!
They're still fighting Darwin!
They're not for Chump!
They're against reality!!!

Because reality means that what they believe in comes crumbling down...

FUCK SCIENCE AND REALITY!!!!
GO CHUMP!!!!
FUCK JEBUS!!!!

I'm actually happy now that Bernie didn't win the primaries...
I only hope the extreme left won't be as stupid as they were four years ago when they voted for Chump as a signal that they wanted to blow up the corrupt system (that it is)...

Trump blew up the system.
He did (some) good...
America is going through a badly needed cultural revolution...

Let's hope it doesn't blow up completely... because that would really suck.

Chump taught Americannot humility...

GO TRUMP!!!!
NOW GO FUCK YOURSELF!!!!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

The Walrus

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2020, 02:07:20 AM »
With posts like that, it is no wonder that Trump got elected.

bosbas

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2020, 10:32:14 PM »
It is not much different from many European countries, where whichever party wins a majority of seats in parliamentary elections selects the next prime minister.
[/quote]

The difference is that in the US a candidate needs to get a majority of votes in a certain district/state, while in other countries, a candidate needs to get a certain percentage of votes overall. The US system leads to unexpected outcomes, where a majority of votes does not equal to win an election. While Clinton received 2.87 million more votes than Trump did, Trump received the majority in the Electoral College ; that looks like the result of a voting system that has severe limitations. With a districting system like the US, the number of parties is highly reduced, since winning a district is the only way to get a seat.

bosbas

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2020, 11:22:23 AM »
Interesting article at the link.

Quote:
Should a Trump nominee be confirmed, the Supreme Court will consist of six justices appointed by Republicans, even though the party has won the popular presidential vote only once in the past seven elections (George W. Bush, in 2004).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/minority-party-electoral-college-court-trump/2020/09/25/1163b954-fdfc-11ea-8d05-9beaaa91c71f_story.html

The Walrus

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2020, 07:45:46 PM »
It is not much different from many European countries, where whichever party wins a majority of seats in parliamentary elections selects the next prime minister.

The difference is that in the US a candidate needs to get a majority of votes in a certain district/state, while in other countries, a candidate needs to get a certain percentage of votes overall. The US system leads to unexpected outcomes, where a majority of votes does not equal to win an election. While Clinton received 2.87 million more votes than Trump did, Trump received the majority in the Electoral College ; that looks like the result of a voting system that has severe limitations. With a districting system like the US, the number of parties is highly reduced, since winning a district is the only way to get a seat.
[/quote]

Not true.  In a parliamentary system, the prime minister is chosen by a majority vote of parliament.  The people do not vote for a p.m., just their own representatives.  If one party wins a majority of seats, then they will choose.  Should no party receive a majority, they will attempt to form a coalition with another party to form a minority government.  It is entirely possible for two other parties to form a coalition and garner a majority of the votes in parliament to form a government over the party with a plurality.  These governments tend to be unsteady and dissolve over shorter periods than majority governments.  In a majority government, the winning party has total control.  In the U.S., one party can control one, two, or three seats of government.  Unless they control all three, some sort of compromise must occur.

The Walrus

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #21 on: September 27, 2020, 10:45:34 PM »
Interesting article at the link.

Quote:
Should a Trump nominee be confirmed, the Supreme Court will consist of six justices appointed by Republicans, even though the party has won the popular presidential vote only once in the past seven elections (George W. Bush, in 2004).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/minority-party-electoral-college-court-trump/2020/09/25/1163b954-fdfc-11ea-8d05-9beaaa91c71f_story.html

But the GOP has won the presidency 3 of the past 7, and 8 out of 13.

wili

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2020, 05:57:33 AM »
To re-iterate bos's point:

Quote
“Since 1992, the Republican presidential candidate has won the popular vote only one time,” Zakaria observed.

“Nevertheless, Republicans have held the White House for almost half of those 28 years.”

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/09/terrifying-cnn-host-panics-after-realizing-trump-can-stay-in-office-without-actually-winning-the-vote/

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

morganism

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #23 on: November 13, 2020, 04:03:25 PM »
A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the rise and fall of societies. He has bad news.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/

https://escholarship.org/uc/irows_cliodynamics

"The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions."

"“We are almost guaranteed” five hellish years, Turchin predicts, and likely a decade or more. The problem, he says, is that there are too many people like me. “You are ruling class,” he said, with no more rancor than if he had informed me that I had brown hair, or a slightly newer iPhone than his. Of the three factors driving social violence, Turchin stresses most heavily “elite overproduction”—­the tendency of a society’s ruling classes to grow faster than the number of positions for their members to fill. One way for a ruling class to grow is biologically—think of Saudi Arabia, where princes and princesses are born faster than royal roles can be created for them. In the United States, elites over­produce themselves through economic and educational upward mobility: More and more people get rich, and more and more get educated. Neither of these sounds bad on its own. Don’t we want everyone to be rich and educated? The problems begin when money and Harvard degrees become like royal titles in Saudi Arabia. If lots of people have them, but only some have real power, the ones who don’t have power eventually turn on the ones who do."

The Walrus

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2020, 05:02:31 PM »
A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the rise and fall of societies. He has bad news.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/

https://escholarship.org/uc/irows_cliodynamics

"The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions."

"“We are almost guaranteed” five hellish years, Turchin predicts, and likely a decade or more. The problem, he says, is that there are too many people like me. “You are ruling class,” he said, with no more rancor than if he had informed me that I had brown hair, or a slightly newer iPhone than his. Of the three factors driving social violence, Turchin stresses most heavily “elite overproduction”—­the tendency of a society’s ruling classes to grow faster than the number of positions for their members to fill. One way for a ruling class to grow is biologically—think of Saudi Arabia, where princes and princesses are born faster than royal roles can be created for them. In the United States, elites over­produce themselves through economic and educational upward mobility: More and more people get rich, and more and more get educated. Neither of these sounds bad on its own. Don’t we want everyone to be rich and educated? The problems begin when money and Harvard degrees become like royal titles in Saudi Arabia. If lots of people have them, but only some have real power, the ones who don’t have power eventually turn on the ones who do."

This is not the first time that someone has predicted the demise of the United States.  Paul Kennedy in his 1987 book, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, predicted the decline of the U.S., Europe, and the USSR (Well, he got one right) by the end of the 20th century. 

WildFit

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #25 on: November 13, 2020, 07:06:59 PM »
A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the rise and fall of societies. He has bad news.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/

https://escholarship.org/uc/irows_cliodynamics

"The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions."

"“We are almost guaranteed” five hellish years, Turchin predicts, and likely a decade or more. The problem, he says, is that there are too many people like me. “You are ruling class,” he said, with no more rancor than if he had informed me that I had brown hair, or a slightly newer iPhone than his. Of the three factors driving social violence, Turchin stresses most heavily “elite overproduction”—­the tendency of a society’s ruling classes to grow faster than the number of positions for their members to fill. One way for a ruling class to grow is biologically—think of Saudi Arabia, where princes and princesses are born faster than royal roles can be created for them. In the United States, elites over­produce themselves through economic and educational upward mobility: More and more people get rich, and more and more get educated. Neither of these sounds bad on its own. Don’t we want everyone to be rich and educated? The problems begin when money and Harvard degrees become like royal titles in Saudi Arabia. If lots of people have them, but only some have real power, the ones who don’t have power eventually turn on the ones who do."

This is not the first time that someone has predicted the demise of the United States.  Paul Kennedy in his 1987 book, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, predicted the decline of the U.S., Europe, and the USSR (Well, he got one right) by the end of the 20th century.


The demis is well underway. In 2001 it became obvious but it started a lot earlier and is accelerating.

Only because it will take around 150-200 years to the bottom does not mean that it does not happen. Generally most people have difficulties to follow processes that don't terminate during their lifetime.