Ice2sea report

[Richard Rathbone]

Does anyone know where the science their press release is based on is to be found? There's a while bunch of papers on their website, but no final report as far as I can see.

Their claim on sea level rise from melting ice seems incredibly low. Last decade 1 mm/yr from warming ocean, 2 mm/yr from melting ice. Their projection for the average over the century is 3 mm/yr from warming ocean and 0-3 mm/yr from melting ice.

[OldLeatherneck]

I would be very leary of any report that projected SLRs that ludicrously low for the rest of this century.  Without trying to identify the source, it almost sounds like it was manufactured data just to allow coastal developers to continue building in low lying areas.

Could this be another "scientific" analysis straight from the bowels of the denialosphere??

[CraigsIsland]

I would be very leary of any report that projected SLRs that ludicrously low for the rest of this century.  Without trying to identify the source, it almost sounds like it was manufactured data just to allow coastal developers to continue building in low lying areas.

Could this be another "scientific" analysis straight from the bowels of the denialosphere??

Until the data and sources are cleared, it's another paid piece of crap for developers to cite as "scientific" proof to build or do nothing.

[Laurent]

Especially when the last measures show us a one centimeter rise !!! I expect an exponential increase when the arctic has melted...so very soon !!!
(From Abruptslr https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,72.msg5458.html#msg5458 )

[Richard Rathbone]

Could this be another "scientific" analysis straight from the bowels of the denialosphere??

Its big a EU science project. Its the sort of thing that IPCC base their reports on. It should be conservative but solid, if a bit out of date.

I suspect they are relying on model projections of increased snow in Antarctica but I want to see whether they have taken into account the poor performance of the models in predicting the evolution of the polar regions in the 2000s or still have undue confidence in them.

[TerryM]

I'll be intrigued when I hear Dr. Box's response re. the GIS. Their high end scenario feels too low to me, but this is the report that will be used when making decisions, at least through Europe.


This can't be compared to some drivel that Watts or Goddard dreamt up. It's probably the best funded and most comprehensive study of SLR to date & it's going to take newer data to refute or confirm their conclusions.


Has anyone considered the effects of SLR in the Bering Strait? I'm thinking of additional Pacific water entering the Arctic & adding to our problems.


Terry

[Vergent]

Terry,

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054092/full

We have seen increases in flux through there.

Vergent

[Anne]

I don't know if this is related. Today I saw this article about Dynamic Topography Change of the Eastern United States Since 3 Million Years Ago, a report suggesting that the Earth's mantle pushed up shorelines, so previous heights were not necessarily evidence of higher sea levels.

The team studied the coast from Virginia to Florida, which has an ancient scarp tens of metres above present-day sea level. Until now, many research groups have studied this shoreline and concluded that during a warm period three million years ago, the Greenland, West Antarctic and a fraction of East Antarctic ice sheets collapsed, raising the sea level at least 35 metres. But the new findings by Rowley and his team suggest that these ice sheets, particularly the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (the world's largest), were probably more stable.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/05/130516142551.htm

[sidd]

Prof. Box has three papers out at meltfactor.org

[FishOutofWater]

The report's a downloadable PDF on the Ice2sea web site. It's not written in a scientific format. It has PR style bios mixed in with dumbed-down summaries of the reports published in the peer reviewed literature. I was unable to evaluate the conclusions because the results, methods, figures and data were not presented in sufficient detail to support the conclusions.

The report is a glossed up summary for policy makers that's short on scientific rigor.

Perhaps the conclusions are reasonable. Sea level rise is like a lagging indicator in economics. Droughts and food shortages are going to drive political decisions on climate change long before sea level rise has major effects on the European coastline.

[Richard Rathbone]

The report's a downloadable PDF on the Ice2sea web site. It's not written in a scientific format. It has PR style bios mixed in with dumbed-down summaries of the reports published in the peer reviewed literature. I was unable to evaluate the conclusions because the results, methods, figures and data were not presented in sufficient detail to support the conclusions.

The report is a glossed up summary for policy makers that's short on scientific rigor.

Perhaps the conclusions are reasonable. Sea level rise is like a lagging indicator in economics. Droughts and food shortages are going to drive political decisions on climate change long before sea level rise has major effects on the European coastline.

I eventually found it on their site. It doesn't have a permanent link as far as  I can tell, but one of the images the front page cycles through includes a link. Eventually I happened to be looking at the page when it was displaying a link.

One reason they project relatively low rates for this century is that they expect a substantial increase in snow deposition into Antarctica. .

Another is that they reckon there is only a small amount of ice in Greenland available for fast glacier discharge, and once its gone the glaciers slow down again.

While these are plausible, I reckon they are unduly certain they will happen. I don't think snow into Antarctica happened in the last decade to anything like the extent the models suggested it would and they are driving their Greenland ice model with climate models that have done a dire job on predicting the evolution of Arctic Sea Ice.

[ananthapriya]

A talented younger ice2sea researcher has won identification for his excellent efforts to the research of Greenland’s ice sheet.

[Lennart van der Linde]

Another reason for their low projections is their use of a relatively moderate warming scenario of 3-4 degrees of warming by 2100, based on the pledges in Copenhagen in december 2009, so not a worst-case scenario.

Even then they estimate a 5% risk of more than 132 cm of SLR by 2100.

This is based on expert elicitation (13 experts, see Bamber & Aspinall 2013), not their processed-based models. Individual experts may estimate the risks to be considerably higher.

They say a 5% chance of more than 132 cm is a "low'' probability, but given the potential impacts it seems a pretty high risk.