Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map

[bbr2315]

Post!

https://www.270towin.com/

I think the battlegrounds this election are (in order of Trump victory likelihood // my guess on pop vote margin in each state) --

Ohio | T +8
Arizona | T +7
Iowa | T +7
Florida | T +4
Michigan | T +4
Pennsylvania | T +3
New Hampshire | T +3
Wisconsin | T+2
Minnesota | T+.5
Oregon | B +.5
Colorado | B +2
Nevada | B +5
New Jersey | B +5
Connecticut | B +5
Virginia | B +6

Trump has about 3 points of margin right now IMO. He can lose everything up to Michigan and still win the election.

I could see a range of "surprise" scenarios resulting in an EC total very close to 269 v 269. Attaching two of those scenarios as well.

It would be very interesting if the first election for MN to go red in forever was the one where it determined the cycle. Lol. They definitely have reason.

[Tom_Mazanec]

I could see a range of "surprise" scenarios resulting in an EC total very close to 269 v 269.

With Congress as it is, who do you think would win if the college doesn't decide?
With the controversial nature of this election, could a faithless elector change the result?

[The Walrus]

I could see a range of "surprise" scenarios resulting in an EC total very close to 269 v 269.

With Congress as it is, who do you think would win if the college doesn't decide?
With the controversial nature of this election, could a faithless elector change the result?

It is possible in any close election.  The House would currently favor the Republicans.  However, it is very close, and there is no guarantee that all the Republicans will support Trump. 

[Tor Bejnar]

I recommend the Electoral Vote website: https://electoral-vote.com/
with a map they (two American professors, one in California, one in Netherlands) update daily, based on non-partisan polling, and other features.  They have a political blog with yesterday's news explained.

[The Walrus]

That map looks heavily biased towards the Democrats.  That type of thinking occurred in 2016, and led to the misguided assumption that Hillary Clinton would win easily.  Just a few states seem completely out of touch with the electorates, including some states that Trump won in 2016 forecasted to be safe Democratic states (Michigan and Florida).  While I fully expect that Michigan will return to the Democratic camp, Florida appears to be a tossup.  Another head scratcher is Arkansas.  Clinton lost her home state by 27%, yet the state is predicted as only barely GOP.  Trump won Missouri and Utah by almost 20%, yet they are classified as barely GOP also.  Trump won Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, yet they are classified as likely Dem, while Trump states Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio are all considered barely Dem.  A few states that Clinton barely won (Colorado, Maine, and Virginia) and painted as solid Dem.  While I expect this to go blue, they do not appear to be that safe.

I think that fivethirtyeight has a more accurate predictive map:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/fivethirtyeight-2016-polls-plus-forecast

[Phoenix]

That map looks heavily biased towards the Democrats.  That type of thinking occurred in 2016, and led to the misguided assumption that Hillary Clinton would win easily.

What is misguided is any attempt to extrapolate from 2016 to 2020.

Trump is a guaranteed turnout machine for Democrats in this cycle. His malignant narcissism only plays worse and worse to a public that wants the government to orbit around their problems, not his.

Who wants a divisive racist who royally screwed up the pandemic response and can't lift a glass of water to his mouth one-handed? A POTUS who has US citizens tear gassed and sprayed with rubber bullets so he can take a photo op in DC? Even the evangelicals are pissed at his appointee Gorsuch's LGBTQ decision.

This is going to be an epic rout.

[The Walrus]

That map looks heavily biased towards the Democrats.  That type of thinking occurred in 2016, and led to the misguided assumption that Hillary Clinton would win easily.

What is misguided is any attempt to extrapolate from 2016 to 2020.

Trump is a guaranteed turnout machine for Democrats in this cycle. His malignant narcissism only plays worse and worse to a public that wants the government to orbit around their problems, not his.

Who wants a divisive racist who royally screwed up the pandemic response and can't lift a glass of water to his mouth one-handed? A POTUS who has US citizens tear gassed and sprayed with rubber bullets so he can take a photo op in DC? Even the evangelicals are pissed at his appointee Gorsuch's LGBTQ decision.

This is going to be an epic rout.

I do not dispute anything you have said about Trump.  The only problem is that it was all known in 2016 before the election, and did not appear to make a difference then. 

The election is Biden's to lose.  Hopefully, he will not follow in Clinton's footsteps.

If the polls are to be believed (a Big IF), Biden has a slim lead in Michigan (+1 and +2 in the latest polls), Pennsylvania (+3), and Wisconsin (+4).  These were the three states that swung the 2016 election.  Clinton had a bigger lead in all three at this stage in 2016, but lost them all.  I still believe that Biden will win, but I do not envision a rout, and he could lose.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Phoenix]

I do not dispute anything you have said about Trump.  The only problem is that it was all known in 2016 before the election, and did not appear to make a difference then. 

The experience of Trump as president was not known in 2016.

[SteveMDFP]

I do not dispute anything you have said about Trump.  The only problem is that it was all known in 2016 before the election, and did not appear to make a difference then. 

The experience of Trump as president was not known in 2016.

Quite right.  In his first campaign, Trump promised *some* quite progressive policies.  He promised a health plan that would cover everyone, at reduced cost.  He promised to make the tax structure more progressive, with taxation burdens shifted to the wealthy.  He promised to root out corruption and "drain the swamp."  He promised to make America's air and water much cleaner.  In all these areas, and others, he's done exactly the opposite.
 

[bbr2315]

That map looks heavily biased towards the Democrats.  That type of thinking occurred in 2016, and led to the misguided assumption that Hillary Clinton would win easily.

What is misguided is any attempt to extrapolate from 2016 to 2020.

Trump is a guaranteed turnout machine for Democrats in this cycle. His malignant narcissism only plays worse and worse to a public that wants the government to orbit around their problems, not his.

Who wants a divisive racist who royally screwed up the pandemic response and can't lift a glass of water to his mouth one-handed? A POTUS who has US citizens tear gassed and sprayed with rubber bullets so he can take a photo op in DC? Even the evangelicals are pissed at his appointee Gorsuch's LGBTQ decision.

This is going to be an epic rout.

Trump has been labeled many things by his opponents. Some true, most not. The same will be for Biden.

Hilary had a similar lead to Biden at this time in 2016. I would argue Hilary also had a *better* shot of winning than Biden. The benefit always goes to the incumbent, if there is one.

Michigan's Governor is a literal fascist. I would have agreed that Michigan was borderline or possibly Biden-leaning prior to the crisis, but Whitmer's response is going to invigorate turnout on Trump's side. The riots in Minnesota and beyond are going to be an even bigger bump for Trump.

Some label Trump as "racist, blah blah blah" however I see Biden "if you don't vote for me you ain't black" as the actual racist. Democrats have been in charge of the USA's urban agglomerations in totality for the past few decades and beyond and have left many cities rotting hulks. NYC had the highest death toll on the planet due to COVID.

While there is certainly a media bubble and it is LOUD due to Twitter enhancing the voices of those furthest left on the spectrum, I do not believe it extends to reality as 2016 verified and 2020 will again prove. The argument re: economic conditions being unfavorable to Trump also rings hollow as the destruction was mostly caused by Democrat governors.

<way over the top with this one Bbr. - BK> The popular vote may be marginally pro-Biden but I think it will be closer than 2016 if not outright T.

[The Walrus]

I do not dispute anything you have said about Trump.  The only problem is that it was all known in 2016 before the election, and did not appear to make a difference then. 

The experience of Trump as president was not known in 2016.

That is true.  Even so, the two wildcards in the election are the economy and the virus.  The man in charge tends to get the credit or the blame, regardless of his actual contribution.  The news on these fronts could save or doom the man.

Biden needs to be more than just anti-Trump.  People need to be confident that he will see us through any crisis.  He is much more likeable than Clinton was, which should help him.  Clinton had the second highest unfavorable rating of any presidential candidate, and she lost to the most unfavorable.  I do worry a little about what he says.

[Tom_Mazanec]

I'll vote for the candidate endorsed by Right To Life but I probably won't like it.
And it probably won't be enough for his reelection.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Trump wins again.

After trailing hugely in the polls, Trump wins a solid victory. Democratic brain melt into overdrive. Rioting.

Trump is Trump. Same baffoon as always.

Biden isn't Biden anymore. It was never a great thing to be, but demented is worse. The public will likely see how clueless he is during one of the debates.


(MANY trump supporters are in the closet!)

[blumenkraft]

I'll vote for the candidate endorsed by Right To Life but I probably won't like it.
And it probably won't be enough for his reelection.

Trump just single-handedly killed tens of thousands of Americans. And it will be a lot more.

So much right to life, so much winning!

You got to be kidding, Tom.

[blumenkraft]

GSY, please try to contribute in a meaningful way. Be warned, the slippage will be swift if you steal people's time or try to troll.

[Phoenix]

Biden needs to be more than just anti-Trump.  People need to be confident that he will see us through any crisis.

People need to be confident that a POTUS won't let their ego get in the way of responding to a crisis.

Trump has already proven that he can't be trusted in this regard. Biden can't be worse.

[GoSouthYoungins]

People need to be confident that a POTUS won't let their ego get in the way of responding to a crisis.

Any evidence to support this claim?

[Phoenix]

People need to be confident that a POTUS won't let their ego get in the way of responding to a crisis.

Any evidence to support this claim?

https://www.google.com/search?q=self+evident+definition

[colchonero]

Any prediction that has Florida not tied, not leaning not even probable but safe Democrat, in line with CA and NY is laughable.

It is also laughable, (not to choose any stronger words) to say that Democrats have 258 el votes safe while GOP has less than 100. You can be whatever professor with zillion degrees, you are not living in the real world. I can bet my house anytime Florida won't be anywhere near NY and CA, and GOP will have way more than 90 something el votes safe. Easy money. Their prediction looks more like something I would expect to see in Belarus,Serbia,Hungary,Russia etc.

[GoSouthYoungins]

People need to be confident that a POTUS won't let their ego get in the way of responding to a crisis.

Any evidence to support this claim?

https://www.google.com/search?q=self+evident+definition

Okay. Well we have president whose ego gets in the way of everything he does, crisis or not. And I am a person. And I don't need to any different. So no, ppl don't need to be confident a POTUS won't let their ego get in the way.

Every person let's their ego get in the way of everything. Ppl who don't get that are the problem. They will get take advantage of time and again. And they will answer a forum question snarkily with a link.

[blumenkraft]

Everyone, play the ball. Not the man.

Talk about the topic at hand, not about how you feel about other users!

[The Walrus]

Any prediction that has Florida not tied, not leaning not even probable but safe Democrat, in line with CA and NY is laughable.

It is also laughable, (not to choose any stronger words) to say that Democrats have 258 el votes safe while GOP has less than 100. You can be whatever professor with zillion degrees, you are not living in the real world. I can bet my house anytime Florida won't be anywhere near NY and CA, and GOP will have way more than 90 something el votes safe. Easy money. Their prediction looks more like something I would expect to see in Belarus,Serbia,Hungary,Russia etc.

Considering that Obama was the only presidential candidate since Carter to amass more than 50% of the vote in Florida, this seems like quite the stretch.  Over the past seven presidential elections, Democrats have the slightest advantage by a margin of 47.40 to 47.22%.  Even Obama only won the state 51-48 and 50-49 in his two winning bids.  No one has won Florida by more than 6% since Bush (the elder, not W). 

[Tom_Mazanec]

I'll vote for the candidate endorsed by Right To Life but I probably won't like it.
And it probably won't be enough for his reelection.

Trump just single-handedly killed tens of thousands of Americans. And it will be a lot more.

So much right to life, so much winning!

You got to be kidding, Tom.

blumenkraft, I got a copy of the GOP primary ballot because I thought the park levy was on it (it wasn't, because I live in Twinsburg). Since Trump's name was the only one on the ballot, I couldn't even vote against him, so i threw it away.
Here is what conservatives think about his SCOTUS pick:
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/06/et_tu_gorsuch.html

When even our "originalist" judges are so hostile to the historical record and imaginative and fanciful with their assault on truth, is there any hope for ever achieving a Supreme Court that can constrain itself within the bounds of Article III without constantly stealing powers from the Legislative and Executive Branches far beyond its purview?  Of course not!  The priestly oligarchs rewriting language for everyone else have already dispensed with any distinction between "man" and "woman"; why would they quibble with the managerial nuances between "judge" and "legislator"?  All Gorsuch has done with Bostock is proven that, regardless of his pedigree and education, he still can't read.

And I suspect his next picks will be just as disappointing to them and me.
I don't hate the politicians on both sides anymore...I'm too fed up with their BS to get the gumption to have that emotion. But I hate the System that forces me to choose between one jerk who "just single-handedly killed tens of thousands of Americans" (and I don't even know what particular shenanigan you are referring to here, there are so may of them) and a jerk who supports killing hundreds of thousands of American babies.
Well, I have expressed my opinion on this fubared American election system. Any further should be taken to PMs because Neven does not want this abortion debated here.

[be cause]

  ^^^ this is why I didn't choose to let this thread through .. can we at least drop it from the front page ?
 

[gerontocrat]

  ^^^ this is why I didn't choose to let this thread through .. can we at least drop it from the front page ?
 

Definitely belongs in "Politics - Enter at your peril", and certainly does not belong in the front page.

ps:- Trump is relying on the stock market and the economy to pull the rabbit out of the hat.  If that takes a few score thousand more dead - so be it.

[bbr2315]

  ^^^ this is why I didn't choose to let this thread through .. can we at least drop it from the front page ?
 

Definitely belongs in "Politics - Enter at your peril", and certainly does not belong in the front page.

ps:- Trump is relying on the stock market and the economy to pull the rabbit out of the hat.  If that takes a few score thousand more dead - so be it.

I disagree with you here. He wants a good economy - period. It isn't like a good economy is only good for reelection.

GSY's posts are spot-on.

RE: stocks -- I am not sure what is going to happen but I could see another major market crash happening before the election, I think it is guaranteed whether it happens before Halloween or afterwards, but it is coming alongside wave #2 (as all the transport / hospitality sector failures snowball in particular).

If the market thinks Biden's chances of election are rising we could see a crash come before the election, as a bump to capital gains rates in 2022 would be enough to spook a sell-off in 2020 (I would argue this is partially why 2008 tanked so hard in September, because of the unknown of the Obama Presidency).

If there is an election where stocks + econ are uncoupled from the incumbent, I think it is this one, due to the pandemic situation which can be used as justification for the downturn.

[Freegrass]

Trump is pumping trillions of dollars of the relief money into the stock market while regular people are left in the cold. Curious to see if people will fall for that grand theft...

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

[bbr2315]

Trump is pumping trillions of dollars of the relief money into the stock market while regular people are left in the cold. Curious to see if people will fall for that grand theft...

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

You do realize regular people own 401Ks and houses and assets etc....

[Pmt111500]

  ^^^ this is why I didn't choose to let this thread through .. can we at least drop it from the front page ?
 

Definitely belongs in "Politics - Enter at your peril", and certainly does not belong in the front page.

ps:- Trump is relying on the stock market and the economy to pull the rabbit out of the hat.  If that takes a few score thousand more dead - so be it.

With enough old rich people dying to covid, he might just succeed in this heist, just slap a temporary 80% inheritance tax for those dying from covid or covid related illness and explain it's for unpatriotic behavior.

[The Walrus]

Trump is pumping trillions of dollars of the relief money into the stock market while regular people are left in the cold. Curious to see if people will fall for that grand theft...

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

You do realize regular people own 401Ks and houses and assets etc....

Yes, he may be trying to buy the election with the stimulus checks and unemployment benefits.  The stock market may just be an illusion, as many people had plenty of money, but nothing to buy.

[GoSouthYoungins]

3/4 of American's hate political correctness. Trump is the politically incorrect candidate. Never has the political correctness movement been more severe in America.

This causes a significant portion of the population to never admit publicly to supporting Trump. So despite the PC movement driving more voters to Trump, the polls show him losing popularity. (This whole thing is known as Bradley effect. But it has never been this intense before. This is the Bradley effect on steroids.)


Also, Trump's base love him to death. They think he is the greatest president ever, lol. Biden's base really don't like him at all, they just hate trump. Love will trump hate, llol.

[PragmaticAntithesis]

I'm predicting this map (lots of toss ups, I know). With all the toss ups, there is about an 80% chance of Biden winning, and a 269-269 tie is possible. Trump *must* win Florida or he's toast.

[The Walrus]

Cannot argue too much with your map.  Personally, I think Nevada would be light blue, and the Maine second district is a toss-up or light red (Trump won this district in 2016). 

I agree that Trump cannot win without Florida.  I would be surprised if he wins Michigan again.  He barely won the state in 2016, which was the first time that a Republican candidate has carried the state since Bush in 1988.

[Phoenix]

I'm in Nevada. We be blue here. The equity refugees from California have tipped the scales.

[Pmt111500]

"We, the areas"-maps picked up today.

[bbr2315]

Some big news. I know it may seem trivial but Kanye has entered the race. I think Trump and Kanye are friends, and I think this is a ploy to divert black voters from Biden ("if you don't vote for me you ain't black"), and it will prove successful. If Trump wasn't already a shoo-in for victory, I think a 400+ EV blowout is now possible.

It should be noted the only poll that came close to being correct in 2016 has Trump tied with Biden nationally and winning by 300+ EV in the EC.

For some reason the original Express article is not working, here is alt link --

https://www.nairaland.com/5976132/trump-shock-election-poll-black

In any case, I think Kanye is going to pull in 1-2% of Trump supporters nationally, and 5-10% of Biden supporters. That may only turn out to be about 2-3% of the popular vote but it is going to come almost entirely from Biden and it could actually be sufficient to flip states like New Jersey, Virginia, maybe even New York depending on how badly Kanye takes support from Biden.

Consequently, my new map --

[Phoenix]

Wishful thinking on the Kanye impact.

For black voters, this election is all about stopping Trump.  If anything, Kanye's impact will be to eliminate any sense of complacency and send Democratic participation through the roof.

The beat down is going to be reminiscent of LBJ v. Goldwater.

[bbr2315]

Wishful thinking on the Kanye impact.

For black voters, this election is all about stopping Trump.  If anything, Kanye's impact will be to eliminate any sense of complacency and send Democratic participation through the roof.

The beat down is going to be reminiscent of LBJ v. Goldwater.

Ahahahahahahahaha.

For "X" voters "2016 election was all about stopping Trump".

What a racist thing to say as well. Why is it that white liberals (presumably -- I could be wrong) feel so free to tell all black people how to vote. Joe "if you don't vote for me you ain't black" Biden is the epitome of this wantonly offensive and unearned attitude and when Democrats stare defeat in the face yet again come November they will yet again say "but how could we have known". lolllll.

[Phoenix]

The only one telling black people how to vote is Trump.

He called the neo-nazis at Charlottesville good people. He tear gassed the BLM protesters. He defends the confederate monuments. He condemned the black athletes like Kaepernick who took a knee and protested police violence. He screwed up the Covid management which has disproportionately hurt people of color.

It's true that Biden has an actual terrible history with black issues. But, the black community decided that he was the best chance to beat Trump and they have taken ownership of his candidacy. 
They didn't take their cue from Biden....they took it from black leaders like Jim Clyburn and Obama.

You are the one who introduced racism into these comments by suggesting black people would vote for Kanye because he is black and gloating about the cynical ploy to split the black vote. It isn't going to work.

Trump was the last hurrah for white supremacy. He created the unity that will permanently marginalize his base of support. The demographic dominoes are lined up to roll over America like a tsunami. Young people are rejecting racism, climate denial and evangelical christianity.

It's time to assimilate.

[PragmaticAntithesis]

I've updated my prediction based on more recent polling. I think that, once anger over the GOP's handling of the coronavirus and BLM subsides, Biden will lose ~4 points. I also think the pollsters have got Florida wrong.

I also think Kanye West's run will be barely noticeable. His application is too late to even show up on the ballot on some states! The vast majority of Americans have never heard of him. Of those who do know of him, many will write this off as a joke/PR campaign. Of those who know of him and are taking his run seriously, most will are already locked in as voting for one of the two big parties anyway. This only leaves a tiny portion of the vote that Kanye even has a chance of taking. I think JoJo (the Libertarian candidate) will have a much bigger third party impact, and that could completely screw Trump over!

This map leaves Biden just 1 EC vote off winning (note: Trump would probably win a 269-269 tie because of how the tiebreaker works) meaning he only needs to snag 1 toss up, which I think is quite likely.

Republicans, on the other hand, need to win all 5 toss ups (NH, NC, FL, AZ, NV) just to tie. There's hope, but not much of it.

Note: this all assumes the election will actually go off without a hitch and there's no COVID related turnout suppression.

[The Walrus]

Pragmatic,
I tend to agree with your map.  I am not so sure about the Maine and Nebraska districts, as I would move them to the tossup column.  Other than that, Wisconsin would be the only other state that could be a tossup.  Either way, Trump would need to win almost all the undecideds to remain in the white house.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Note: this all assumes the election will actually go off without a hitch and there's no COVID related turnout suppression.

How would this work? I figure it would help Trump. Biden voters believe in social distancing and would more likely stay home, while Trump voters think it is a hoax (to exaggerate some). Or to go to an extreme, I suppose Trump could cancel the election as a public health measure, but then God only knows what would happen.

[gerontocrat]

Thank the Lord it's "Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map" and not mine.

On the other hand - back here in the UK we are stuck with 4 more years of Boris Johnson.

[The Walrus]

Note: this all assumes the election will actually go off without a hitch and there's no COVID related turnout suppression.

How would this work? I figure it would help Trump. Biden voters believe in social distancing and would more likely stay home, while Trump voters think it is a hoax (to exaggerate some). Or to go to an extreme, I suppose Trump could cancel the election as a public health measure, but then God only knows what would happen.

Interesting thought.  Then again, Biden supporters (young voters) are more opposed to the stay at home orders endorsed by the Democrats.  How would that affect the outcome?

[sedziobs]

This map leaves Biden just 1 EC vote off winning ...

Republicans, on the other hand, need to win all 5 toss ups (NH, NC, FL, AZ, NV) just to tie. There's hope, but not much of it.

That was the idea of the "blue wall" leading up to the 2016 election. If Clinton won the typically reliable great lakes states of MN, WI, MI, and PA, she would only need one tossup to win. Of course the blue wall failed.   

Those states have 56 EC votes. Your tossups have 65. It would be interesting if the blue wall again failed but the tossups swung to Biden. Demographic changes offer some support to that outcome.

[Phoenix]

Put your money where your mouth is Cheeto fans. Predictit.org has Biden as a 60% favorite.

We need some more Trump money in there to get a better payback.

https://www.predictit.org/

[Phoenix]

I think that, once anger over the GOP's handling of the coronavirus and BLM subsides, Biden will lose ~4 points.

What miracle is going to cause a change in the US Covid outlook?

There probably isn't going to be any football in America this fall. The food banks can't keep up with demand. We're going to have more school closures. We're in a total clusterf**** and Trump is just going for maximum grift in the last 6 months.

We're more likely to get $250 billion worth of Cat 5 landfalls in Trump country that put the spotlight on climate denial than any progress on Covid.

The GOP is in deep ocean with a 500 lb. weight chained to their ankles. The only way this goes is down, down, down.

[Tor Bejnar]

Taegen Goddard's Political Wire has a consensus electoral map.  Today's posts include

A New Swing State on the Map

(Texas)

[bbr2315]

Taegen Goddard's Political Wire has a consensus electoral map.  Today's posts include

A New Swing State on the Map

(Texas)

Hillary campaigned in Arizona and Georgia too. Wonder if Biden will make the same mistakes. Not that he would know where he is campaigning anyways...

[PragmaticAntithesis]

Taegen Goddard's Political Wire has a consensus electoral map.  Today's posts include

A New Swing State on the Map

(Texas)

Hillary campaigned in Arizona and Georgia too. Wonder if Biden will make the same mistakes. Not that he would know where he is campaigning anyways...

That's assuming it will be a mistake. Texas has a lot of important down-ballot candidates to secure before 2022 redistricting occurs, which could easily lock in house seats.