Now for something completely different: my opinion on what Biden's best path to 270 is.
I'm using electoral vote's polling analysis for this.
https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/tipping_point.htmlFirstly, the dark blue states (plus ME-1). These are states where Biden holds an 11+ point lead. Biden will win these states, even if he underperforms the polls by 10 points (which is extremely unlikely).
Secondly, the likely D states. These are: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Michigan, Florida and Minnesota. Biden needs 5 (any 5) of these to take the White House. Because relying on Florida to go blue is a terrible idea; I think Biden should focus on the other 5, which I have coloured light blue. If I were Biden's campaign team, I would be focusing a very significant amount of time and money on making absolutely certain these 5 states go to Biden.
Thirdly, the states Biden doesn't need to win but probably will anyway, which I have coloured grey. Campaigning in these states (except NE-2 which only has 1 vote) could gave Biden a nice safety net, just in case one of the 5 key states ends up surprising.
Finally, the states I coloured red. These are states where, if Biden wins, he's already so far ahead that the election is in the bag anyway. If Biden's campaign team tries to focus on these areas (and aren't doing so for the purpose of downballot races such as the Senate), I would be facepalming so hard, as it would mean the Democrats have learned nothing from 2016. It's 270 to win, not 400!
If Biden gets the states I've highlighted, not even a 10 point miracle can save Trump.