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Paddy

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #50 on: July 14, 2020, 03:05:17 PM »

In any case, I think Kanye is going to pull in 1-2% of Trump supporters nationally, and 5-10% of Biden supporters.

Wishful thinking on the Kanye impact.

Currently West is polling at 2% of the vote, vs 48% for Biden and 39% for Trump.  If he's not included in the poll, the polling splits 48% for Biden vs 40% for Trump, so if anything he may be taking more votes from Trump than Biden. 

In any event, he's probably going to be irrelevant.  Most people who are politically minded enough to vote will go for the candidate from one of the big two parties, as always.

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #51 on: July 14, 2020, 03:15:23 PM »
This is going to be a close race, But, assuming the Republicans have a cure for the disease already manufactured (as the disease was also made by them) and if they spread it via chemtrails to the sickly susceptible people this alone might turn the election to a big victory for them.

Sorry to spread such nonsense here but in love and politics everything... Umm... That's not how the phrase goes.

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #52 on: July 14, 2020, 03:19:01 PM »
With people getting tired of lockdown and Trump opposed to lockdowns could that actually help him?
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #53 on: July 14, 2020, 05:33:56 PM »

In any case, I think Kanye is going to pull in 1-2% of Trump supporters nationally, and 5-10% of Biden supporters.

Wishful thinking on the Kanye impact.

Currently West is polling at 2% of the vote, vs 48% for Biden and 39% for Trump.  If he's not included in the poll, the polling splits 48% for Biden vs 40% for Trump, so if anything he may be taking more votes from Trump than Biden. 

In any event, he's probably going to be irrelevant.  Most people who are politically minded enough to vote will go for the candidate from one of the big two parties, as always.

Quite right.  But Kanye is even more irrelevant than this analysis would suggest.  When he made his twitter announcement, he'd already passed the deadline to appear on the ballot in multiple states. 

Note that he has a diagnosis of bipolar disorder.  There's good reason to believe his announcement was part of a manic episode.  One can see further evidence of this in his Forbes interview:

Kanye West Reveals Presidential Platform In Exclusive Interview With Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2020/07/08/kanye-west-reveals-presidential-platform-in-exclusive-interview-with-forbes/

His stated plan is to run under the banner of a new political party:  The Birthday Party.

As far as I can tell from subsequent news articles, he's taken zero concrete steps to establish this new political party, or to appear on any ballots anywhere as an independent candidate.  It's notable that he's never voted in an election in his entire life. 

Phoenix

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #54 on: July 17, 2020, 06:12:24 PM »
Cheeto has demoted campaign manager Brad Parscale and is now trailing by 15 points according to a recent Quinnipiac poll.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/15/politics/quinnipiac-poll-biden-leading-trump-economy/index.html

We're heading toward LBJ / Goldwater territory.


Paddy

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #55 on: July 17, 2020, 06:38:37 PM »
We're heading toward LBJ / Goldwater territory.

We can only hope

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #56 on: July 17, 2020, 06:50:48 PM »
We're heading toward LBJ / Goldwater territory.

We can only hope

Ya, LBJ was excellent. Biden will be even better. I mean both men were born in the 19th century as Democratic racists, but Biden has whiter teeth.
big time oops

Paddy

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #57 on: July 17, 2020, 07:04:58 PM »
If your best argument in favour of Trump is that he's marginally (3 years) the younger septuagenarian, you haven't got much of an argument.  Especially not when trying to make the comparison on racism when you're backing the guy who backs white supremacists.

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #58 on: July 17, 2020, 07:26:45 PM »
We're heading toward LBJ / Goldwater territory.

We can only hope

Ya, LBJ was excellent. Biden will be even better. I mean both men were born in the 19th century as Democratic racists, but Biden has whiter teeth.

Personally, I'm a huge critic of Biden's record. But this election is all about the other guy whose bad record is happening in real time and eclipses all precedent. Trump would lose to almost anyone with a pulse at this point.


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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #59 on: July 17, 2020, 07:32:47 PM »
the guy who backs white supremacists.

The biggest falsehood in America right now. "But that's what my favorite "News" outlet told me".
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #60 on: July 17, 2020, 07:33:35 PM »
Trump would lose to almost anyone with a pulse at this point.

So are you saying that he is a shoe in unless the Dem's pick a new candidate?
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Paddy

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #61 on: July 17, 2020, 07:54:48 PM »
the guy who backs white supremacists.

The biggest falsehood in America right now. "But that's what my favorite "News" outlet told me".

I'm not even in America. This is worldwide knowledge.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #62 on: July 17, 2020, 07:57:07 PM »
Worldwide misconception.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #63 on: July 17, 2020, 08:03:52 PM »
If your best argument in favour of Trump is that he's marginally (3 years) the younger septuagenarian.


I didn't even make an argument for Trump. But fine:

-He this domestic terrorists should be stopped.
-He wants things made in America.
-He understands the biggest threat to America is China.
-He tries to work for minority votes, not tell people they lose their ethnicity if they consider voting for the other guy.
-He understands that without borders their is no sovereignty
-He believes 2+2=4.

In general, he is a buffoon and 99% of his political views are garbage. But Trump Derangement Syndrome is a severe mental virus that has taken over much of the western world.

TDS will continue to cause people who live in a tiny bubble and are certain they are right to predict a huge Trump defeat. Trump has a good chance of winning. If he does TDS may mutate into a fatal disorder. But whatever, paint the each state blue on your map and be REAL excited for that Tuesday night!
big time oops

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #64 on: July 18, 2020, 12:01:53 AM »
Now for something completely different: my opinion on what Biden's best path to 270 is.

I'm using electoral vote's polling analysis for this. https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/tipping_point.html

Firstly, the dark blue states (plus ME-1). These are states where Biden holds an 11+ point lead. Biden will win these states, even if he underperforms the polls by 10 points (which is extremely unlikely).

Secondly, the likely D states. These are: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Michigan, Florida and Minnesota. Biden needs 5 (any 5) of these to take the White House. Because relying on Florida to go blue is a terrible idea; I think Biden should focus on the other 5, which I have coloured light blue. If I were Biden's campaign team, I would be focusing a very significant amount of time and money on making absolutely certain these 5 states go to Biden.

Thirdly, the states Biden doesn't need to win but probably will anyway, which I have coloured grey. Campaigning in these states (except NE-2 which only has 1 vote) could gave Biden a nice safety net, just in case one of the 5 key states ends up surprising.

Finally, the states I coloured red. These are states where, if Biden wins, he's already so far ahead that the election is in the bag anyway. If Biden's campaign team tries to focus on these areas (and aren't doing so for the purpose of downballot races such as the Senate), I would be facepalming so hard, as it would mean the Democrats have learned nothing from 2016. It's 270 to win, not 400!

If Biden gets the states I've highlighted, not even a 10 point miracle can save Trump.
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The Walrus

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #65 on: July 18, 2020, 03:01:29 AM »
P.A.,
Nicely done.  You should be his campaign manager, as you have a well thought out strategy.  If Clinton has done that, she might be running for re-election right now.

Phoenix

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #66 on: July 18, 2020, 06:05:08 AM »
Curious what the Trump supporters think of DHS sending unidentified officers into Oregon w/o consultation and against the wishes of local / state officials ?

What should a person do when a couple of unidentified officers try to hustle them into a unmarked vehicle?

Do you think perception of this action in some other states helps him win with voters?

Phoenix

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #67 on: July 18, 2020, 09:35:39 PM »
Nice article from Vox about how progressives such as myself are really warming up to Biden's candidacy.

https://www.vox.com/21322478/joe-biden-overton-window-bidenism

I gotta say, Biden is the perfect Trojan Horse in an election for the progressive agenda. He's got no leftist bonafides for the GOP to attack. His record is basically Bob Dole with a (D).

He doesn't offer the qualities that will inspire the opposition to turn out against him en masse like Hillary or Trump.

Don't like abortion? Biden is a Catholic who was against Roe v. Wade when it was announced. Don't like the BLM / social justice movement? Biden was the author of the Crime Bill and is as responsible for the incarceration state as anybody. Don't like the defund the police movement? Biden doesn't either. Who could Democrats have nominated that would inspire less antipathy among conservatives than Biden?

Meanwhile, Biden and Bernie are doing a fantastic job of putting up a united front. Biden is signing up for progressive policies left and right but he doesn't have to deal with socialist label or the anti-semitism that Bernie would have faced in a general election. I'm increasingly appreciative of the teamwork between the Democratic camps and reflecting on what a disaster HRC was in this regard in 2016.

It's a perfect storm for a landslide.




bbr2315

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #68 on: September 26, 2020, 07:45:05 PM »
My newest map!

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #69 on: September 27, 2020, 12:17:07 AM »
Unlike your apparent pie in the sky dream, the Electoral-Vote.com  graphs page shows the hurdle President Trump has to overcome.  All the 'statistically tied' states are not represented in this particular chart:
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bbr2315

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #70 on: September 27, 2020, 12:47:23 AM »
Unlike your apparent pie in the sky dream, the Electoral-Vote.com  graphs page shows the hurdle President Trump has to overcome.  All the 'statistically tied' states are not represented in this particular chart:
A graph of someone's prediction looks like.... a graph of someone's prediction.


gandul

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #71 on: September 27, 2020, 03:26:11 AM »
Unlike your apparent pie in the sky dream, the Electoral-Vote.com  graphs page shows the hurdle President Trump has to overcome.  All the 'statistically tied' states are not represented in this particular chart:
I have little faith on Biden putting up a real fight on the debates (there will be debates, right?).

I would not put much trust on those predictions just yet.


Ktb

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #72 on: September 27, 2020, 04:02:12 AM »
bbr's map has no basis in reality. California isn't solid dem? Washington state only leans dem? So many other issues lmao

First debate is September 29th. No candidate has backed out or refused to debate yet. Although Trump has requested PED testing.
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bbr2315

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #73 on: September 27, 2020, 04:07:21 AM »
bbr's map has no basis in reality. California isn't solid dem? Washington state only leans dem? So many other issues lmao

First debate is September 29th. No candidate has backed out or refused to debate yet. Although Trump has requested PED testing.
CA is one of the bluest states in the country, Biden will still lead with 10%+ there IMO. Washington State has been heavily impacted by the fires, riots, and lockdowns and will be impacted accordingly -- not enough to flip it to the R side though, unlike Oregon and New York (no fires in NYC, tho).

Ktb

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #74 on: September 27, 2020, 04:10:18 AM »
Right, one of the bluest states in the country and it is only likely dem according to you. Makes sense. I am sure you applied this excellent R bias filter to the rest of your map as well.
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bbr2315

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #75 on: September 27, 2020, 04:16:43 AM »
Right, one of the bluest states in the country and it is only likely dem according to you. Makes sense. I am sure you applied this excellent R bias filter to the rest of your map as well.
I don't think the colors are "likely" but margin, you are making up a narrative here...

Trump is going to obliterate the long-term D voting blocks IMO and they are not yet re-coalescing so this is a re-alignment election a la Reagan '84 or Clinton '96. While it cannot be said he has total grip over the R constituency it can be said the D constituency is in tatters and many groups are fragmenting towards the Rs or sitting out the election (IMO).

My 2016 map, FYI.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2020, 04:25:36 AM by bbr2315 »

Freegrass

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #76 on: September 27, 2020, 04:57:14 AM »
Polls are BS. It's all about turnout. If old people are afraid to come out and vote, and young people energised to go out and vote, Biden will win big, because the younger generation votes more Democratic.

If they can suppress the vote like they did in 2016, Donald Chump will win again. But that's never gonna happen...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

bbr2315

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #77 on: September 27, 2020, 05:00:09 AM »
Polls are BS. It's all about turnout. If old people are afraid to come out and vote, and young people energised to go out and vote, Biden will win big, because the younger generation votes more Democratic.

If they can suppress the vote like they did in 2016, Donald Chump will win again. But that's never gonna happen...
The only old people afraid of going out and voting are on the D side of the spectrum...

If you are counting on young people, well, good luck, after torpedo'ing Bernie for the second time, and then the entire labor market.

Freegrass

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #78 on: September 27, 2020, 07:53:19 AM »
Polls are BS. It's all about turnout. If old people are afraid to come out and vote, and young people energised to go out and vote, Biden will win big, because the younger generation votes more Democratic.

If they can suppress the vote like they did in 2016, Donald Chump will win again. But that's never gonna happen...
The only old people afraid of going out and voting are on the D side of the spectrum...

If you are counting on young people, well, good luck, after torpedo'ing Bernie for the second time, and then the entire labor market.
I hope they learned their lesson for not voting for Clinton last time. They can see now what the result of that idiocy was. A 6-3 supreme court. Maybe the end of healthcare and abortion...

Besides, Trump is losing all the old people because he's letting them die... They're old, and not stupid! They can see what Trump did and didn't do.

This isn't an election to elect Biden! This is an election to save American democracy and decency...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

The Walrus

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #79 on: September 28, 2020, 05:18:02 PM »
Polls are BS. It's all about turnout. If old people are afraid to come out and vote, and young people energised to go out and vote, Biden will win big, because the younger generation votes more Democratic.

If they can suppress the vote like they did in 2016, Donald Chump will win again. But that's never gonna happen...

This is rhetoric that is not substantiated.  The polls were wrong once, because the voters did not like either candidate, and many stated that they would vote third party.  That did not occur, as most of the Johnson supporters voted for Trump on election day.  Trump supporters are still under-represented in the polls, but not by as much.  Those polls showing Biden with 50% or more, will likely vote blue.  That includes Minn., Mich., and Wis.  Those with less are toss-ups, including Fla., Ariz., Pa., Nev., and N.H.  All these states were very close (except for Arizona) in 2016.  Traditional red states, Texas, Ga., Iowa, N.Car., and Ohio would be a challenge for Biden.  Trump needs to win all those states to have a chance at re-election.  Biden just needs to win Florida or Pennsylvania and one other to win.

There was no suppression in 2016.  Voter turnout was higher in 2016 than in 2012, with just over 60% compared to 58.6%.  Turnout this year is anyone's guess. 

Ktb

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #80 on: September 29, 2020, 02:32:06 PM »
I have only minor qualms with what you have said, Walrus.

There has always been voter suppression. The United States was built on voter suppression.
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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #81 on: September 29, 2020, 02:44:24 PM »
Last night , almost the entire (UK) Channel 4 news was on the exposure of successful voter suppression in 2016 . It is well worth a watch .. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/channel-4-news?intcmp=homepage_collection_channel_4_news_p3_l1
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

The Walrus

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #82 on: September 29, 2020, 03:07:29 PM »
I have only minor qualms with what you have said, Walrus.

There has always been voter suppression. The United States was built on voter suppression.

Yes, I should have said it was less.  Intimidation, poll tax, etc. have been used throughout history.  This has been reduced significantly in recent elections.  Similarly, fraud has likely been reduced also.  The incidences of vote buying, pre-marked and altered ballots, and the infamous "cemetery vote" have been reduced.  The increase in absentee ballots has expanded that realm for exploitation. 

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #83 on: October 01, 2020, 08:19:26 PM »
A month out, here is my prediction for state electoral outcomes.  I just can't call Texas!  If my ranges are all correct or nearly so (give 3 points on the margins), it will be a miracle [e.g., Texas being won by up to 5 points by one of the candidates, and all the 1%ers could flip].  As a week is a lifetime in politics, we have over four lifetimes to go.  Only a fool would prognosticate this far out ...

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The Walrus

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #84 on: October 01, 2020, 08:50:14 PM »
Arkansas being barely red?  Iowa turning blue?  You must think that Trump really tanked on Tuesday. 

bbr2315

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #85 on: October 29, 2020, 04:44:32 PM »
My newest map!
This will probably be my final call.


RikW

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #86 on: November 02, 2020, 08:40:55 AM »
I think the polls are overcorrecting for Trump and this will be a large victory for Biden

https://www.270towin.com/maps/VpW6P

colchonero

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #87 on: November 02, 2020, 09:15:42 AM »
No offense but,

Earth is calling man, there is literally no chance of Trump getting 120 EV only. I mean I don't want people to be in shock when it turns out otherwise on Tuesday. I am not saying Biden isn't gonna win, he might, but he ain't getting 413 electoral votes man, nowhere near that.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 09:29:00 AM by colchonero »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #88 on: November 02, 2020, 03:27:40 PM »
Something to keep in mind from America's most trustworthy news source :-J

October Surprise: This Race Is Over
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/october_surprise_this_race_is_over_.html
Quote
Finally, there’s the matter of polling. Most polls are commissioned by media organizations that are openly hostile to Trump. Why should anyone believe them now making basically the same anti-Trump predictions that were completely wrong in 2016?

One polling company, though, stands out. The Trafalgar Group accurately predicted Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Now Trafalgar forecasts Trump will take Florida, Michigan, and Arizona.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer could be more disappointed than Joe Biden on election night. Trafalgar has African-American GOP Senate candidate John James slightly ahead in Michigan. Trump may drag Sen. Martha McSally over the finish line in Arizona, and Alabama will return its Senate seat to the GOP.

It’s also hard to see how a cresting wave of Trump enthusiasm won’t create a GOTV result that keeps Colorado Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in his job.

The bottom line is simple math. When you add the electoral votes from reliably red states to any breach in the Blue Wall, Trump wins again, possibly even bigger than he did last time.


Me? If someone forced me to make a prediction, I would say Biden will win, but not by a landslide (this article shows why a Blue tsunami is unlikely now). But that is what I thought about Hillary back in 2016, so what the heck do I know?

Anyway, still a few hours to post your map predictions.
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RikW

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #89 on: November 02, 2020, 03:31:51 PM »
No offense but,

Earth is calling man, there is literally no chance of Trump getting 120 EV only. I mean I don't want people to be in shock when it turns out otherwise on Tuesday. I am not saying Biden isn't gonna win, he might, but he ain't getting 413 electoral votes man, nowhere near that.

To be honest, I would be really surprised if I'm right ;) But I won't be surprised either if the polls did some overcorrection based on last presidential elections

SteveMDFP

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #90 on: November 02, 2020, 04:08:00 PM »
Something to keep in mind from America's most trustworthy news source :-J

October Surprise: This Race Is Over
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/october_surprise_this_race_is_over_.html
Quote
Finally, there’s the matter of polling. Most polls are commissioned by media organizations that are openly hostile to Trump. Why should anyone believe them now making basically the same anti-Trump predictions that were completely wrong in 2016?

One polling company, though, stands out. The Trafalgar Group accurately predicted Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Now Trafalgar forecasts Trump will take Florida, Michigan, and Arizona.

Polling is a semi-scientific endeavor. It's not hard to discern bias among pollsters. Trafalgar is a plainly right-leaning, biased pollster.  So of course they called 2016 for Trump.  That's no indication of quality.  See:

Nate Silver Blasts Trafalgar Polls as "Crazy"
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/politics/nate-silver-blasts-trafalgar-and-rasmussen-polls-as-crazy

Now, it's not surprising that Silver might slam a pollster who is an outlier among less biased outfits.  But see the specifics of one state from Trafalgar:

"Trafalgar poll in Florida. What is this in the crosstabs? 18-24 year olds 18 points for Trump? Trump winning 31% of Black voters?

"Trafalgar Response - Remove the Cross Tabs
Links to these Trafalgar polls with the dubious crosstabs have gone dead."
__________________________________________________________

And, by the way, Nate Silver wasn't "wrong" in 2016.  He didn't say Hillary would win.  He said Trump had a 30% chance of winning.  Given Trump's razor-thin margin in a few states, and Hillary's relatively commanding lead in the popular vote, I think Nate's odds were appropriate.

Anything from "American Thinker" should be taken with a very large grain of salt.  They're so biased and unsophisticated, that it's a waste of your time and the forum's time to even discuss their nonsense.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 04:13:52 PM by SteveMDFP »

The Walrus

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #91 on: November 02, 2020, 05:50:04 PM »
Me? If someone forced me to make a prediction, I would say Biden will win, but not by a landslide (this article shows why a Blue tsunami is unlikely now). But that is what I thought about Hillary back in 2016, so what the heck do I know?

Anyway, still a few hours to post your map predictions.

I would agree.  I think Biden will win by ~20 electoral votes.  Very close.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #92 on: November 02, 2020, 06:57:12 PM »
I'll keep that in mind, Steve.
I posted a claim from them on another thread a few minutes ago. I qualified it because the story was a little hard to believe, but if it actually happened (it is one person's account) then it is an outrage and reflects horribly on this country's elections.
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The Walrus

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #93 on: November 02, 2020, 11:14:56 PM »
Something to keep in mind from America's most trustworthy news source :-J

October Surprise: This Race Is Over
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/october_surprise_this_race_is_over_.html
Quote
Finally, there’s the matter of polling. Most polls are commissioned by media organizations that are openly hostile to Trump. Why should anyone believe them now making basically the same anti-Trump predictions that were completely wrong in 2016?

One polling company, though, stands out. The Trafalgar Group accurately predicted Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Now Trafalgar forecasts Trump will take Florida, Michigan, and Arizona.


Me? If someone forced me to make a prediction, I would say Biden will win, but not by a landslide (this article shows why a Blue tsunami is unlikely now). But that is what I thought about Hillary back in 2016, so what the heck do I know?

Anyway, still a few hours to post your map predictions.

The best way to determine a pollsters accuracy is to compare the polling numbers to the ballot results.  Looking back to 2016 and comparing the Trafalgar data in those states polled in the last week before the election and the final results, reveals the following:

State:      Trafalgar:     Results:     Diff.:
PA           Trump +1     Trump +1    0
MI           Trump +2     Trump +0    Trump +2
FL           Trump +4     Trump +1    Trump +3
NC           Trump +5     Trump +4    Trump +1
OH           Trump +5    Trump +8    Clinton +3
GA           Trump +7     Trump +5    Trump +2

Overall, there was a 1% bias towards Trump.  Other states, such as IA, WI, AZ, etc were not polled by Trafalgar.  Trafalgar has Trump ahead in all these states by at least 2% in their most recent polls.   Trafalgar is polling WI, NV, and MN this election cycle, and showing Biden ahead narrowly, but Trump leading AZ.

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #94 on: November 07, 2020, 02:36:17 PM »
These maps might interest some people here:

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1325027473399144450?s=20

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« Reply #95 on: November 07, 2020, 03:51:50 PM »
Thanks, Paddy.  I wonder what the map would look like if every eligible voter voted.
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