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How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?

High
3 (21.4%)
Low
6 (42.9%)
I do not know
5 (35.7%)

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Author Topic: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?  (Read 1277 times)

ArcticMelt1

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I wanted to ask what is the probability of the occurrence of strong earthquakes in Antarctica?

As it is known a huge rift passes through Antarctica (the black line in the diagram below):



But in Antarctica is not observed strong earthquakes.

What is the reason? Glaciers inhibit movement in the rifts?

Can the melting of glaciers cause movement in the faults and strong earthquakes in Antarctica?

ArcticMelt1

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Re: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?
« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2018, 12:52:28 PM »
Recent studies show that melting glaciers increases the frequency of earthquakes.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/167/1/012018/pdf
An Enhanced Seismic Activity Observed Due To Climate Change: Preliminary Results from Alaska

https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/the-correlation-of-seismic-activity-and-recent-global-warming-2157-7617-1000345.php?aid=72728

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This study will show that increasing seismic activity for the globe’s high geothermal flux areas (HGFA), an indicator of increasing geothermal forcing, is highly correlated with average global temperatures from 1979 to 2015 (r = 0.785).

Juan C. García

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Re: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?
« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2018, 12:54:03 PM »
I think that earthquakes will increase worldwide, if the ice melts on Antarctica & Greenland, making sea level rise. I just hope that we will be able to stop emissions and reduce CO2 concentration on the atmosphere, before we have earthquakes all around us.

I live close to Mexico City, a place that is very vulnerable to earthquakes. They are usually originated on the Pacific, because the Coco’s plate is moving inward the North American Plate. I think that the Coco’s plate will accelerate the moving inward, with the additional pressure of sea level rise. I don't have a scientific study that will support that.

Finally, I don’t have a reason to think that earthquakes could not happen in the Arctic or Antarctica, if Greenland and Antarctica lose a huge amount of ice. I just think that it is common sense that it will happened.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2018, 01:06:54 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

ArcticMelt1

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Re: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?
« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2018, 01:08:57 PM »
I think that earthquakes will increase worldwide, if the ice melts on Antarctica & Greenland, making sea level rise. I just hope that we will be able to stop emissions and reduce CO2 concentration on the atmosphere, before we have earthquakes all around us.

In the theory of future tectonic catastrophe can be explained why in the atmosphere of Venus is a huge amount of carbon dioxide. Probably the greenhouse catastrophe on Venus led to increased seismic activity, volcanism and the release of additional greenhouse gases from the lithosphere.

Juan C. García

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Re: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?
« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2018, 01:43:07 PM »
In the theory of future tectonic catastrophe can be explained why in the atmosphere of Venus is a huge amount of carbon dioxide. Probably the greenhouse catastrophe on Venus led to increased seismic activity, volcanism and the release of additional greenhouse gases from the lithosphere.

I still hope that we have time to stop a future tectonic catastrophe. The Earth changes are in slow motion, so I think that we will understand the danger and react, before it happens. We should seek the CO2 concentration of 350 ppm on the atmosphere. And I think that we can and must make it happen.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2018, 02:35:17 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

ArcticMelt1

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Re: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?
« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2018, 02:44:54 PM »
I still hope that we have time to stop a future tectonic catastrophe. The earth changes are in slow motion, so I think that we will understand the danger and react, before it happens. We should seek the CO2 concentration of 350 ppm on the atmosphere. And I think that we can and must make it happen.

There are big doubts. For example, Japan, which has suffered greatly from the strongest earthquake, on the contrary, increased carbon dioxide emissions. It is very likely that only the creation of a backup space infrastructure is the best way out of the coming catastrophe. The example of Venus suggests that it is possible to save the Earth too late.

kassy

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Re: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?
« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2018, 02:53:47 PM »
In the theory of future tectonic catastrophe can be explained why in the atmosphere of Venus is a huge amount of carbon dioxide. Probably the greenhouse catastrophe on Venus led to increased seismic activity, volcanism and the release of additional greenhouse gases from the lithosphere.

There are other good reasons Venus´ atmosphere is what it is:

Unlike Earth, Venus lacks a magnetic field. Its ionosphere separates the atmosphere from outer space and the solar wind. This ionised layer excludes the solar magnetic field, giving Venus a distinct magnetic environment. This is considered Venus's induced magnetosphere. Lighter gases, including water vapour, are continuously blown away by the solar wind

...

Hydrogen is in relatively short supply in the Venusian atmosphere. A large amount of the planet's hydrogen is theorised to have been lost to space,[15] with the remainder being mostly bound up in sulfuric acid (H2SO4) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S). The loss of significant amounts of hydrogen is proven by a very high D–H ratio measured in the Venusian atmosphere.[3] The ratio is about 0.015–0.025, which is 100–150 times higher than the terrestrial value of 1.6×10−4.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus


PS: If there was a strong earthquake in Antarctica would that matter? Ice quakes might be more relevant?

Then again i live in the Netherlands so sea level rise is more a concern to me then earthquakes (i have slept through all of them so far, not something you can do in Mexico).
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

ArcticMelt1

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Re: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?
« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2018, 03:15:58 PM »
There are other good reasons Venus´ atmosphere is what it is:

Unlike Earth, Venus lacks a magnetic field. Its ionosphere separates the atmosphere from outer space and the solar wind. This ionised layer excludes the solar magnetic field, giving Venus a distinct magnetic environment. This is considered Venus's induced magnetosphere. Lighter gases, including water vapour, are continuously blown away by the solar wind

Good point. But this does not explain the superdense atmosphere on Venus. Moreover, current knowledge suggests that oceans could exist on Venus in the past. This is evidenced by the discovery of rift zones, which can be formed only at the bottom of the oceans.


PS: If there was a strong earthquake in Antarctica would that matter? Ice quakes might be more relevant?

Then again i live in the Netherlands so sea level rise is more a concern to me then earthquakes (i have slept through all of them so far, not something you can do in Mexico).

Of course. The emergence of strong earthquakes in West Antarctica will lead to a sharp acceleration of the collapse of ice sheets.

Obviously, glaciers are now holding back movement in the faults. When liquid water or magma from the ocean, from melting or lithosphere enters the rift, it will begin to slide better.

An example of artificial earthquakes are mining areas. There is even a feature film on how to make a big earthquake:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_View_to_a_Kill

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Bond and Sutton infiltrate Zorin's mine and discover his plot to detonate explosives beneath the lakes along the Hayward and San Andreas faults, which would cause them to flood, causing the Silicon Valley area to be permanently submerged underwater. A larger bomb is also in the mine to destroy a "geological lock" that prevents the two faults from moving at the same time. Once the bombs are in place, Zorin and his security chief Scarpine flood the mines, killing the mine workers. Sutton escapes, while Bond and May Day are stranded in the mine. When May Day realizes that Zorin has abandoned her, she helps Bond remove the larger bomb by putting the device onto a handcar and pushing it out of the mine. When the handcar's brakes block their attempt, May Day stays on it to make it roll clear of the mine; once outside, the bomb explodes, killing her.

ArcticMelt1

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Re: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?
« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2018, 03:21:51 PM »
Now the glaciers of Antarctica are "castle" on a huge ring of the strongest earthquakes around the Pacific Ocean.

http://npdp.stanford.edu/sites/all/images/gem_map_v3.png

The whole question is only when this lock will be broken.

kassy

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Re: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?
« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2018, 03:55:36 PM »
Quote
The emergence of strong earthquakes in West Antarctica will lead to a sharp acceleration of the collapse of ice sheets.

Obviously, glaciers are now holding back movement in the faults. When liquid water or magma from the ocean, from melting or lithosphere enters the rift, it will begin to slide better.

The important triggers for the ice sheet collapse are losses at the interface with the sea and then acceleration of the huge glaciers that drain there.

Since the earthquakes as a response can only happen after that i think it is all kind of moot. Also ice is quite elastic so you can only shake bits of a slope.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

ArcticMelt1

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Re: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?
« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2018, 04:06:45 PM »
There are also possible evidences of high seismic activity during the past great melting of glaciers. This is indicated by the anomalous high number of tsunamis on the California coast 8-9 thousand years ago:

http://earthjay.com/?p=7311

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The Santa Barbara Basin to the north has an excellent Holocene record of floods and earthquakes (Du et al., 2018). Here is a plot showing the ages of possible earthquake triggered turbidites (submarine landslide deposits) from the Santa Barbara Basin.

ArcticMelt1

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Re: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?
« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2018, 04:22:24 PM »
Quote
The emergence of strong earthquakes in West Antarctica will lead to a sharp acceleration of the collapse of ice sheets.

Obviously, glaciers are now holding back movement in the faults. When liquid water or magma from the ocean, from melting or lithosphere enters the rift, it will begin to slide better.

The important triggers for the ice sheet collapse are losses at the interface with the sea and then acceleration of the huge glaciers that drain there.

Since the earthquakes as a response can only happen after that i think it is all kind of moot. Also ice is quite elastic so you can only shake bits of a slope.

Of course, the disintegration of the West Antarctic Shield will strongly depend on the warming of the ocean.

But on the other hand, it is important to note that there is a network of active tectonic faults beneath the ground Eastern shield - the largest accumulations of ice on the planet.

These faults are called the East Antarctic Rift System.

http://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/383/1/1#ref-85

Quote
Black dashed lines denote the East Antarctic Rift System (Ferraccioli et al. 2011)

GSM - Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains
LV - Lake Vostok


The initialization of the strongest earthquakes in West Antarctica can provoke strong earthquakes in East Antarctica.

ArcticMelt1

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Re: How high is the probability of a tectonic catastrophe in Antarctica?
« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2018, 04:33:37 PM »
Recent studies say that East Antarctica is a fragile mixture of parts of different plates.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34733-9