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Shared Humanity

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1300 on: April 23, 2022, 03:26:53 PM »
I can't find a problem with the link. Seems informative.

ArgonneForest

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1301 on: April 23, 2022, 04:50:23 PM »
You would be incorrect to think that

Alumril

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1302 on: April 23, 2022, 06:43:57 PM »
The dark red patch in eastern China is interesting.
It's a shame the Shangdianzi carbon cycle greenhouse gas observation site is no longer reporting into the NOAA database since September 2015. I'm not sure if Prof. Lingxi Zhou of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences is still collecting this data, not sure if that would be available somewhere else.
But by 2015 it was ahead of Utqiaġvik (Barrow, Alaska).
Here's a view comparing Shangdianzi to Alaska and South Pole while it was reporting to NOAA.
It does go to show if we can get methane under control it would make a substantial difference to the radiative forcing within a few decades.

kassy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1303 on: April 23, 2022, 08:47:55 PM »
What always strikes me is how different the values across the hemispheres are. This is also problematic on the longer time scale since Siberia will emit a bunch and the ESAS bubbles will keep growing.

The China patch is a seasonal thing. I don't keep a close eye on numbers but a big plume is always there over the years as SciGuy used to mention.
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ArgonneForest

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1304 on: April 24, 2022, 12:28:57 AM »
How much the ESAS bubbles will contribute is a matter of debate, but it seems unlikely to be a pulse scenario

Sciguy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1305 on: April 29, 2022, 07:25:54 AM »
If the arctic methane were being released, it would show in the surface concentrations:



If we’re concerned about GHGs in the atmosphere, we should look at total column maps:



You could go to the source, the Copernicus website, and see for yourself:

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/methane-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2022042800,3,2022042803&projection=classical_global&layer_name=composition_ch4_totalcolumn

Sublime_Rime

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1306 on: April 29, 2022, 01:27:04 PM »
My interpretation of these graphs is that the correlation of methane concentration with latitude if anything suggests that there may be methane being released at the highest latitudes in N. hemisphere. While most human sources seem located in the northern hemisphere, these are at mid-latitudes, while the background concentrations seem highest >60N at the surface. While this latitude correlation could be due to human sources of methane in NH, the isotope data suggesting a larger contribution from natural sources seems to contradict this.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00312-2?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=nature&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#ref-CR5
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Linus

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1307 on: April 29, 2022, 11:51:25 PM »
Reading about how the CAMS data is produced on the Copernicus website, the forecasts are made using a combination of surface and atmospheric measurements which are then compared to background data to produce a forecast.
It seems that this forecast is often confused with a snapshot of the current state of atmospheric methane. It is not quite that simply because of the limited data fed from surface observations at high latitudes and the limits of the satellite measurements themselves.  This is why the output is labeled a forecast versus current state. Hopefully in the near future, upgrades will fill in the gaps and allow a greater understanding of what is taking place in the atmosphere. But for now, the gaps in coverage can result in missed areas of emissions. From the Copernicus website:

“CAMS uses observations from both satellites and ground-based measurement stations to monitor atmospheric CH4 concentrations. This tells us how quickly atmospheric concentrations are increasing. Using computer models of the atmosphere, CAMS then uses these observations to estimate the strength of the various emission sources over time. Currently, CAMS distinguishes between contributions from wetlands, rice fields, biomass-burning, and other (anthropogenic) sources. CAMS is now further developing its services to enable zooming in, especially on the anthropogenic component of the emissions. This is becoming possible with the new generation of satellite sensors, such as Sentinel-5p.”

ArgonneForest

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1308 on: April 30, 2022, 07:19:14 PM »
If the arctic methane were being released, it would show in the surface concentrations:



If we’re concerned about GHGs in the atmosphere, we should look at total column maps:



You could go to the source, the Copernicus website, and see for yourself:

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/methane-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2022042800,3,2022042803&projection=classical_global&layer_name=composition_ch4_totalcolumn

I believe this is a prescient analysis of the situation. The best source for currrent data is the METOP site: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/m1/rp/mrm_t1.html

Sublime_Rime

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1309 on: May 24, 2022, 01:06:37 AM »
Arctic methane levels according to that forecasting link posted above, as well as in situ measurements at Barrow, seem to have rapidly dropped off in the past several months, but CO2 levels have been wonky up there all year. With an unusual uptick early in the year, when methane levels were also highest, and then a decline, followed by another uptick when levels at Barrow are usually declining. I wonder if this might relate to changes in carbon uptake/output by the land sources up there?
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morganism

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1310 on: May 24, 2022, 08:16:31 PM »
could maybe be changes in ocean microbio? They had a huge die-off last year of wildlife do to some kind of microbial burst.

kassy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1311 on: September 24, 2022, 09:19:05 PM »
There's Trouble Bubbling Up in Newly Formed Alaskan Lakes, And Scientists Are Worried

Lakes appearing in Alaska because of melting permafrost are "belching" methane into the atmosphere, a scientist working with NASA said.

These lakes, called thermokarsts, are so full of the climate-damaging gas that it can be seen bubbling to the surface.

More and more of these lakes are appearing as Alaska's permafrost thaws with rising temperatures and increasing forest fires, according to a 2021 study.

NASA's Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) project is studying their effect on climate change, according to a NASA blog post published Thursday.

Thermokarsts are born after the earth thaws and collapses
Thermokarst lakes appear when permafrost, ground that is meant to stay frozen throughout the year, starts to melt.

As this happens, massive blocks of ice that are wedged into the ground also melt, which causes the ground to collapse several feet.

"Years ago, the ground was about three meters taller and it was a spruce forest," said Katey Walter Anthony, an ecologist at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks, describing a thermokarst called Big Trail lake in Alaska.

As water invades the sinkholes left behind, so do bacteria.

"At Big Trail Lake, it's like opening your freezer door for the first time and giving all the food in your freezer to microbes to decompose," said Walter Anthony.

"As they decompose it, they are belching out methane gas," she said.

There are millions of lakes in the Arctic, but most are thousands of years old and don't give off much gas anymore, per the NASA blog post.

It's only the newer lakes, like Big Trail, which appeared less than 50 years ago, that give off high levels of the gas.

...

https://www.sciencealert.com/theres-trouble-bubbling-up-in-newly-formed-alaskan-lakes-and-scientists-are-worried

Lots of new lakes...
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Alumril

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1312 on: September 26, 2022, 03:16:50 AM »
Thermokarst lakes are the main cause of loss of eyebrows in university of Fairbanks staff.


vox_mundi

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1313 on: July 06, 2023, 06:05:26 PM »
Research Shows Shrinking Arctic Glaciers Are Unearthing a New Source of Methane
https://phys.org/news/2023-07-arctic-glaciers-unearthing-source-methane.html



As the Arctic warms, shrinking glaciers are exposing bubbling groundwater springs which could provide an underestimated source of the potent greenhouse gas methane, finds new research published in Nature Geoscience.

The study, led by researchers from the University of Cambridge and the University Center in Svalbard, Norway, identified large stocks of methane gas leaking from groundwater springs unveiled by melting glaciers.

The research suggests that these methane emissions will likely increase as Arctic glaciers retreat and more springs are exposed. This, and other methane emissions from melting ice and frozen ground in the Arctic, could exacerbate global warming.

"These springs are a considerable, and potentially growing, source of methane emissions—one that has been missing from our estimations of the global methane budget until now," said Gabrielle Kleber, lead author of the research who is from Cambridge's Department of Earth Sciences.

Kleber spent nearly three years monitoring the water chemistry of more than a hundred springs across Svalbard, where air temperatures are rising two times faster than the average for the Arctic. She likens Svalbard to the canary in the coal mine of global warming, "Since it is warming faster than the rest of the Arctic, we can get a preview of the potential methane release that could happen at a larger scale across this region."

When Kleber and the team profiled the chemistry of the water feeding these springs, they found that all bar one of the sites studied were highly concentrated with dissolved methane—meaning that, when the spring water reaches the surface, there is plenty of excess methane that can escape to the atmosphere.

The methane-delivering springs they identified are fed by a plumbing system hidden beneath most glaciers, which taps into large groundwater reserves within the underlying sediments and surrounding bedrock. Once the glaciers melt and retreat, springs appear where this groundwater network punches through to the surface.

The researchers found that methane emissions from glacial groundwater springs across Svalbard could exceed 2,000 tons over the course of a year—which equates to roughly 10% of the methane emissions resulting from Norway's annual oil and gas energy industry.

This source of methane will likely become more significant as more springs are exposed, said Kleber, "If global warming continues unchecked then methane release from glacial groundwater springs will probably become more extensive."

"The amount of methane leaking from the springs we measured will likely be dwarfed by the total volume of trapped gas lying below these glaciers, waiting to escape," said Hodson, "That means we urgently need to establish the risk of a sudden increase in methane leakage, because glaciers will only continue to retreat while we struggle to curb climate change."

Groundwater springs formed during glacial retreat are a large source of methane in the high Arctic, Nature Geoscience (2023)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01210-6

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Sublime_Rime

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1314 on: July 27, 2023, 02:33:39 PM »
There seem to be some unusually high methane spikes in Barrow, Alaska this month, which is a little concerning to me considering the heatwave there and abnormally high SSTs. The spikes are driving the monthly average to 22 ppb higher than last year. https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts
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ArgonneForest

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1315 on: July 27, 2023, 11:06:30 PM »
There seem to be some unusually high methane spikes in Barrow, Alaska this month, which is a little concerning to me considering the heatwave there and abnormally high SSTs. The spikes are driving the monthly average to 22 ppb higher than last year. https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

If you adjust the in-situ data to daily rates, it's not really that bad

Sublime_Rime

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1316 on: July 28, 2023, 05:38:13 AM »
So two days over 2150ppb isn't really that bad? Those are among the highest daily values recorded at that station. Sure, it's only two days, but definitely worth watching given the ongoing atmospheric and oceanic heatwaves nearby.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2023, 05:54:49 AM by Sublime_Rime »
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ArgonneForest

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1317 on: July 29, 2023, 12:36:33 AM »

Sublime_Rime

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1318 on: July 29, 2023, 03:25:25 PM »
Spikes continue! The yearly increase from last July now up to 32ppb.

For more discussion on this, see Tipping Points thread.
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ArgonneForest

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1319 on: July 30, 2023, 06:19:32 PM »
I think you're making much ado about nothing of substance

Sciguy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1320 on: July 31, 2023, 06:47:46 AM »
Keep in mind that Barrow is near some active oil and gas fields.  When the wind shifts, methane vented from the wells may affect the measurements.  You may want to look at other Arctic sites to see if they show spikes too.  Here’s the graph for Alert, in Canada:



Here is Summit in Greenland:


Sublime_Rime

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1321 on: July 31, 2023, 02:17:41 PM »
I'm not familiar with the proximity of Barrow to fossil fuel sources, but I wouldn't discount that either.

The data you cited, however, is only published up through May or early June, and would not reflect the last month.

Personally I'm leaning towards the wildfire hypothesis, as one can now clearly see smoke reaching that area on worldview the past several days. It seems more likely that would coincide temporally with these spikes rather than leaks from extraction projects. We may have an answer in a couple months when the flask data catches up and we can see the isotope signature.
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Sublime_Rime

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1322 on: August 06, 2023, 04:57:37 AM »
Sublime Rime reporting in for your weekly methane spike...

Up until recently, I have been increasingly sold on the wildfire theory of methane spikes in Barrow over the last two weeks (Fig. 1), considering recent reports on the tremendous CO2 emissions estimates from this past season and the proximity of smoke to Barrow. However, one strong piece of data does not fit: CO2 levels at the Barrow station that have NOT spiked over the same time period, which I would expect from wildfire smoke (Fig 2). (Is this correct?).

The spikes continue (Figs 1 and 3) (though there has been a delay in reporting, which makes me wonder whether there are doubts about data quality), and have significantly raised the monthly averages for July and August (Fig 4). My interpretation of this disjunct between methane and CO2 levels suggests some isolated source of methane release may be more likely than wildfire smoke as a potential source, but I am far from an expert in these matters, so would welcome any and all discussion from those with more background.

Fig. 1 - hourly in situ data from this past year showing ongoing methane spikes in last two weeks @ Barrow, AK

Fig 2 - hourly data showing more predictable CO2 levels over this period from same station.

Fig. 3 - Hourly methane data from last 10 years showing that this duration and magnitude of spikes is unique over this period

Fig. 4 -  Monthly methane data showing a 42ppb increase from July 2022 to July 2023, with August so far showing 46ppb increase from previous year

Edit: CO2 emissions from canadian wildfires recently estimated at just over 1 gigaton (converted from 290 megaton carbon): https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/2023-canada-wildfires-emissions-have-already-doubled-previous-annual-record
« Last Edit: August 06, 2023, 05:12:36 AM by Sublime_Rime »
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Sciguy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1323 on: August 06, 2023, 06:46:00 AM »
The Copernicus satellite didn’’t detect abnormal methane emissions over northern Alaska the last week of July  Maybe it’s a quality issue.

https://maps.s5p-pal.com/ch4/

The forecast for August 5th is between 1880 and 1900 ppb:



https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/methane-forecasts?base_time=202308050000&layer_name=composition_ch4_totalcolumn&projection=classical_global&valid_time=202308050300

Sublime_Rime

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1324 on: August 06, 2023, 06:56:33 AM »
This is looking at the total column, including high altitude. If you look at surface measurements, there are spikes at Barrow, in Central AK and also along Northern Siberia and the Siberian Arctic coast.
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Sciguy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1325 on: August 06, 2023, 06:57:50 AM »

Sciguy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1326 on: August 06, 2023, 07:01:04 AM »
This is looking at the total column, including high altitude. If you look at surface measurements, there are spikes at Barrow, in Central AK and also along Northern Siberia and the Siberian Arctic coast.

Barrow is the northern most point in Alaska.  It shows up as dark green in the map you posted, or around 1960 ppb.  No where near the levels shown in the posts you made earlier in the week.

Sciguy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1327 on: August 06, 2023, 07:06:07 AM »
Here’s the Arctic surface view for August 4th from Copernicus:



Again, Barrow in the green, not showing abnormally high readings.  Compare to Scandinavia or China, which have much higher methane levels.

gerontocrat

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1328 on: August 06, 2023, 01:31:39 PM »
To spot a local methane spike may require a high resolution scan from e.g. sentinel 2 and sentinel 3

see this post from morganism
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2750.msg377435.html#msg377435
Quote
Satellite supergroup spots methane super-emitters with “staggering” accuracy

Sustainability - The combination of satellites allows the identification of major sources of greenhouse gas and is a crucial development for climate change mitigation efforts


    Using a combination of satellites, researchers can now detect methane super-emitters globally with great accuracy and almost in real time.
    This allows the identification of major sources of this potent greenhouse gas and is a crucial development for climate change mitigation efforts.
    The tiered approach moves from low-resolution global scans by Sentinel-5P to pinpointed spotting of emitters by Sentinel-3 and Sentinel-2 with increasing spatial resolution
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Sublime_Rime

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1329 on: August 06, 2023, 02:52:38 PM »
Here’s the Arctic surface view for August 4th from Copernicus:



Again, Barrow in the green, not showing abnormally high readings.  Compare to Scandinavia or China, which have much higher methane levels.

You have been showing isolated images, but the point is there are spikes. If you watch the time lapse they provide there are clearly times with a darker red coloration over the northern coast of Alaska as in the image I posted. Attached is another from a different timepoint on August 4th.

I do appreciate you mentioning this resource however, as it seems to corroborate the point measurements, and also shows some intriguingly high CH4 concentrations over the Barents and Kara seas that I had not noticed.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2023, 03:00:07 PM by Sublime_Rime »
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ArgonneForest

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1330 on: August 06, 2023, 10:14:46 PM »
It's important to note the Copernicus readings are forecasts, not actual data observation. Here are some NOAA HEAP IASI for 8/5 from both 1,000 MB (close to the surface) and 293 MB (higher up in atmosphere):

etienne

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1331 on: August 22, 2023, 08:54:19 PM »
https://climatecrocks.com/2023/08/22/is-rising-methane-an-ominous-indicator/

Quote
Since 2006, the amount of heat-trapping methane in Earth’s atmosphere has been rising fast and, unlike the rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane’s recent increase seems to be driven by biological emissions, not the burning of fossil fuels. This might just be ordinary variability – a result of natural climate cycles such as El Niño. Or it may signal that a great transition in Earth’s climate has begun.

kiwichick16

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1332 on: August 23, 2023, 08:33:31 AM »
thanks  etienne    ..... will methane emissions also rise from higher latitude regions ..... Scandinavia, Siberia , Alaska , Greenland ?,   and also southern areas of S America, Australia , NZ ..... even Antarctica ?..... as soil temperatures rise ....

John_the_Younger

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1333 on: August 23, 2023, 08:55:19 PM »
https://climatecrocks.com/2023/08/22/is-rising-methane-an-ominous-indicator/

Quote
Since 2006, the amount of heat-trapping methane in Earth’s atmosphere has been rising fast and, unlike the rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane’s recent increase seems to be driven by biological emissions, not the burning of fossil fuels. This might just be ordinary variability – a result of natural climate cycles such as El Niño. Or it may signal that a great transition in Earth’s climate has begun.
So when do we know if this is a tipping point reached, or just an ordinary bit of climatic yo-yoing? A year? The next La Niña?

Sciguy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1334 on: September 01, 2023, 03:39:44 AM »
A new study indicates that the Arctic methane sink has been underestimated and that drying of the Arctic due to climate change is a negative feedback.  Here’s the news story:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/08/230831121643.htm

Quote
Arctic soil methane consumption may be larger than previously thought and increases in a drier climate
Date: August 31, 2023
Source: University of Eastern Finland

Arctic wetlands are known emitters of the strong greenhouse gas methane (CH4). Well-drained soils on the other hand remove methane from the atmosphere. In the Arctic and boreal biomes, well drained upland soils with a high potential for atmospheric methane consumption cover more than 80% of the land area. Despite the large upland coverage and their potential importance for methane uptake, the underlying mechanisms, environmental controls and even the magnitude of Arctic soil methane uptake are poorly understood.

A recent study led by researchers from the University of Eastern Finland and the University of Montreal finds that Arctic soil methaneuptake may be larger than previously thought, and that methane uptake increases under dry conditions and with availability of labile carbon substrates. The article was published in Nature Climate Change -- one of the top-level journals in natural sciences.

Here is the study:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01785-3

Quote
Voigt, C., Virkkala, AM., Hould Gosselin, G. et al. Arctic soil methane sink increases with drier conditions and higher ecosystem respiration. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01785-3

Abstract
Arctic wetlands are known methane (CH4) emitters but recent studies suggest that the Arctic CH4 sink strength may be underestimated. Here we explore the capacity of well-drained Arctic soils to consume atmospheric CH4 using >40,000 hourly flux observations and spatially distributed flux measurements from 4 sites and 14 surface types. While consumption of atmospheric CH4 occurred at all sites at rates of 0.092 ± 0.011 mgCH4 m−2 h−1 (mean ± s.e.), CH4 uptake displayed distinct diel and seasonal patterns reflecting ecosystem respiration. Combining in situ flux data with laboratory investigations and a machine learning approach, we find biotic drivers to be highly important. Soil moisture outweighed temperature as an abiotic control and higher CH4 uptake was linked to increased availability of labile carbon. Our findings imply that soil drying and enhanced nutrient supply will promote CH4 uptake by Arctic soils, providing a negative feedback to global climate change.

morganism

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1335 on: September 03, 2023, 09:29:58 PM »
@sciguy.

(That looks like maybe seeding more methanotrophs into the tundra would help with uptakes. It appears the shrubs can shelter them on their own. Maybe by conversion to sugars instead of methanol supplies easy carbon availability?)

"The close link between CH4 uptake and CO2 respiration observed here and noted earlier in temperate forests indicates that input of labile C, such as methanol or formaldehyde, to the rhizosphere may be an important mechanism promoting methanotrophic activity in tundra. This ‘rhizodeposition’—a process during which plants allocate assimilated C to soil via living roots—promotes soil organic matter decomposition and nutrient mobilization and availability. While high-affinity methanotrophs use CH4 as a C and energy source in aerobic respiration, most methanotrophs require additional C compounds, such as CO2 and carbon monoxide (CO), or nitrogen (N) for growth, and the supply of these elements may stimulate methanotrophic activity. The seasonal evolution of diel dynamics, that was particularly pronounced for shrub, links CH4 uptake to ER and suggests that plant and rhizosphere processes may mediate the microbial consumption of CH4 in tundra soils."

kassy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1336 on: September 13, 2023, 11:38:19 AM »
Beaver activity in the Arctic increases emission of methane greenhouse gas


The climate-driven advance of beavers into the Arctic tundra is causing the release of more methane -- a greenhouse gas -- into the atmosphere.

Beavers, as everyone knows, like to make dams. Those dams cause flooding, which inundates vegetation and turns Arctic streams and creeks into a series of ponds. Those beaver ponds and surrounding inundated vegetation can be devoid of oxygen and rich with organic sediment, which releases methane as the material decays.

Methane is also released when organics-rich permafrost thaws as the result of heat carried by the spreading water.

A study linking Arctic beavers to an increase in the release of methane was published in July in Environmental Research Letters

...

"What we found is that there are lots of methane hotspots right next to ponds and they start to diminish as you go away from the pond," he said.

The new study is the first to link large numbers of new beaver ponds to methane emissions at the landscape scale. It suggests that beaver engineering in the Arctic will at least initially increase methane release.

"We say 'initially' because that's the data we have," Tape said. "What the longer-term implications are, we don't know."

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/09/230907205925.htm
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kassy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1337 on: September 19, 2023, 01:26:53 PM »
Worryingly, some scientists believe that large and unaccounted stores of methane are locked up beneath the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. As these glaciers continue to melt and retreat, this gas would be released into the atmosphere at accelerating rates, thus creating a vicious amplifying climate feedback. 

...

The preliminary seismic data we collected seems to confirm our suspicions that layers of sediment are lying under the ice here - more than 150 metres thick in fact -  and importantly the potential environment for methane production that we have been on the hunt for”,  explained Henry Patton.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/node/11805

Lots of pictures on the link of the Greenland expedition in action. The samples they wanted to get  they failed to get before the borehole closed.
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kiwichick16

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1338 on: September 21, 2023, 07:43:23 AM »
Thanks for that Kassy   ......hope they can get the samples next year 

ArgonneForest

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1339 on: September 22, 2023, 12:00:41 AM »
Worryingly, some scientists believe that large and unaccounted stores of methane are locked up beneath the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. As these glaciers continue to melt and retreat, this gas would be released into the atmosphere at accelerating rates, thus creating a vicious amplifying climate feedback. 

...

The preliminary seismic data we collected seems to confirm our suspicions that layers of sediment are lying under the ice here - more than 150 metres thick in fact -  and importantly the potential environment for methane production that we have been on the hunt for”,  explained Henry Patton.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/node/11805

Lots of pictures on the link of the Greenland expedition in action. The samples they wanted to get  they failed to get before the borehole closed.

This is the type of thing that's far more likely to be gradual, given the centennial timescales of melt. It's also possible methanotrophs could be munching on the methane as well

Juan C. García

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1340 on: October 03, 2023, 01:11:14 AM »
Quote
Ancient plant wax reveals how global warming affects methane in Arctic lakes
Warming led to an intensified methane cycle, lasting thousands of years, study finds
September 29, 2023 | By Amanda Morris

In a new study, the researchers examined the waxy coatings of leaves preserved as organic molecules within sediment from the early-to-middle Holocene, a period of intense warming that occurred due to slow changes in Earth’s orbit 11,700 to 4,200 years ago. These wax biomarkers — which were once a part of common aquatic brown mosses — were preserved in sediment buried beneath four lakes in Greenland.

By studying these biomarkers, the researchers discovered that past warming during the middle Holocene caused lakes across a wide range of Greenland’s climates to generate methane.
https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2023/09/ancient-plant-wax-reveals-how-global-warming-affects-methane-in-arctic-lakes/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1341 on: October 03, 2023, 01:18:01 AM »
Quote
Aquatic plant wax hydrogen and carbon isotopes in Greenland lakes record shifts in methane cycling during past Holocene warming

Abstract
Predicting changes to methane cycling in Arctic lakes is of global concern in a warming world but records constraining lake methane dynamics with past warming are rare. Here, we demonstrate that the hydrogen isotopic composition (δ2H) of mid-chain waxes derived from aquatic moss clearly decouples from precipitation during past Holocene warmth and instead records incorporation of methane in plant biomass. Trends in δ2Hmoss and δ13Cmoss values point to widespread Middle Holocene (11,700 to 4200 years ago) shifts in lake methane cycling across Greenland during millennia of elevated summer temperatures, heightened productivity, and lowered hypolimnetic oxygen. These data reveal ongoing warming may lead to increases in methane-derived C in many Arctic lakes, including lakes where methane is not a major component of the C cycle today. This work highlights a previously unrecognized mechanism influencing δ2H values of mid-chain wax and draws attention to the unquantified role of common aquatic mosses as a potentially important sink of lake methane across the Arctic.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh9704
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

kassy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1342 on: October 03, 2023, 03:38:21 PM »
This is interesting. We never knew what exactly drives the acceleration in these events but extra methane features quite prominently. Here it is found in Greenland but from satellite observations we also have it now at much lower latitudes which hints at a stronger climate response then we usually use.

Quote
"Last time Greenland lakes experienced major warming, we were coming out of the last ice age, and it took some time for the conditions to develop for lake methane cycling to increase," said Jamie McFarlin, who led the study. "But once it developed, the lakes in our study maintained an intensified methane cycle for thousands of years until the onset of the naturally driven late Holocene cooling. This supports a climate dependence on lake methane cycling in some Arctic lakes."

"These data show increased periods of methane cycling during past warm periods," added Magdalena Osburn, the study's senior author. "Living on a warming planet, we can look to these signs from the past to help predict our future. We suspect this process is going to become more and more important in the future of these lakes."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/09/230929171001.htm
« Last Edit: October 03, 2023, 05:29:41 PM by kassy »
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ArgonneForest

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1343 on: October 07, 2023, 06:03:48 PM »
Here's a really interesting study on methanotrophic activity in the East Siberian Sea: https://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/187113
Title: Isotopic physiological signatures of anaerobic methanotrophic archaea in the sediment of the East Siberian Sea

Abstract: The East Siberian Sea was investigated to understand existence of methane-related microbes and their methane-metabolic process in the methane seepage sites through quantification of amino acids, archaeal lipids, and carbon stable isotope analysis. The purpose of this study is to (1) provide evidence of the presence of anaerobic methanotrophic archaea (ANME), (2) determine the physiological activity of the methane removal process, and (3) quantify the capacity of methane removal. The results showed that archaeol and sn-2-hydroxyarchaeol were present and confirmed that anaerobic methane oxidation (AOM) by ANME may occur in the methane seepage site. The carbon stable isotopes of amino acids (alanine, valine, isoleucine, and leucine) were progressively depleted according to the metabolic process of amino acid synthesis in methanotroph. This is because methane with a depleted isotopic ratio is used as a carbon source, and the carbon isotope ratio of methane would be reflected in the amino acids and archaeal lipids. Suggesting a new indicator of anoxic oxidation of methane, this study used the depletion of carbon stable isotope ratio in pyruvate family amino acids to estimate the methane removal rate of over 72%. As a result, this study provides evidence for anaerobic methane oxidation in East Siberian Sea sediments and confirms the potential for physiological studies using stable isotopes.

kassy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1344 on: October 27, 2023, 06:17:07 PM »
Baffling And Huge Methane Leak Found In The Baltic Sea

Researchers in Sweden have discovered a large and unusual methane leak in the depths of the Baltic Sea. The leak, which is estimated to be around 20 square kilometers (7.7 square miles) in size, is releasing masses of gas bubbles that are making their way to the surface.

...

In August this year, researchers from Stockholm University and Linnaeus University, Sweden, found a huge leak while exploring the deepest part of the Baltic Sea – the Landsort Deep (Landsortsdjupet), which is about 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) from the nearest coastal town. The leak is located 400 meters (1,300 feet) below the ocean surface and is thought to be around 20 square kilometers (7.7 square miles) in size. This is the equivalent of about 4,000 soccer pitches.

"We know that methane gas can bubble up from shallow seabeds near the Baltic Sea coast, but I've never seen such intense bubbles before and definitely not from such a deep area," researcher Christian Stranne said in a statement.

The team were looking to expand our knowledge of methane, its sources and its sinks, in oxygen-free environments, such as at the deepest part of the Baltic Sea.

"Knowledge about the factors that control how much methane is produced in these deeper areas and where the methane goes is limited,” Marcelo Ketzer, the project leader and professor of environmental science at Linnaeus University, explained.

“How does the system react to, for example, eutrophication or a warmer climate? I knew from one of my previous projects that the methane levels in the sediments in this area are higher than elsewhere in the Baltic Sea, but I never expected methane to bubble out into the sea in this way."

During their work, the team collected a large number of sediment cores and water samples that will hopefully allow them to answer why so much methane is being released in this area.

"We already have a pretty good idea of why it looks the way it does. The size of the sediment grains in the area and the form of the sea floor gives us an indication. It seems like deep ocean currents are causing sediments to accumulate in this particular area, but we need to do more detailed analyses before we can say anything definitive," Ketzer added.

Another interesting aspect of this discovery is that the methane is travelling unusually high up through the water column.

"At the depths we are working with here, you can expect the methane bubbles to reach at most perhaps 150–200 meters [492-656 feet] from the seabed. The methane in the bubbles dissolves in the ocean and therefore they usually gradually decrease in size as they rise towards the sea surface," Stranne explained.

"It is actually quite a complicated balance between pressure effects and diffusion of gases that together determine how size and gas composition develop in a bubble, but the net effect for smaller bubbles is that they lose both size and rise velocity with increased distance from the bottom."

Alarmingly, the researchers saw the bubbles rise to 370 meters (1,214 feet) from the seabed. This can occur, they explained, because bubbles from deep sediments can be coated in “frozen methane” which forms around them. However, the situation here is different.

"This summer I participated in a French expedition to the Amazon outlet where we observed bubbles rising up to 700 meters [2,297 feet] above the seabed,” Stanne noted. “But I don't know of any study where such persistent bubbles have been observed at these depths – it could be a new world record, and it could force us to re-evaluate the role of deep basins in the Baltic Sea, in terms of contribution to the surface water methane content."

What are the explanations?
The reasons for this strange phenomenon remain unclear. According to the sonar, bubbles are making it as high as about 40 meters (131 feet) from the surface. It is possible that some are going substantially higher than this.

One explanation may be that the bubbles are quite large, which is allowing them to make that far. However, Stranne and colleagues have other thoughts.

"Rather, we believe that it is linked to the oxygen-free conditions in the deep water of the Baltic Sea. If there is no oxygen, the levels of dissolved methane in the ocean can be relatively high, which in turn leads to the bubbles not losing methane as quickly. The bubbles are thus kept more intact in this environment, which means that methane transport towards the sea surface becomes more efficient," Stranne said.

"It is a hypothesis that we are currently investigating and if it proves to be correct, it could have consequences – if the oxygen conditions in the Baltic Sea deteriorate further, it would probably lead to a greater transport of methane from the deeper parts of the Baltic Sea, but it remains to be investigated how much may leak into the atmosphere."

Worryingly, the team believe the leaks may not be limited to this site. It is possible there are similar ones elsewhere in the Baltic Sea.

"Now we know what to look for and we look forward to testing this model in other areas of the Baltic Sea with similar geological conditions. There are potentially another half dozen places to explore," Ketzer added.

https://www.iflscience.com/baffling-and-huge-methane-leak-found-in-the-baltic-sea-71091

They are probably on the right path with the low oxygen since normally you need bigger bubbles.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1345 on: November 01, 2023, 08:30:42 PM »
Flight-Collected Data Links Methane Plumes to Tundra Fires In Western Alaska
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-flight-collected-links-methane-plumes-tundra.html

In Alaska's largest river delta, tundra that has been scorched by wildfire, is still emitting more methane than the rest of the landscape long after the flames died, scientists have found. The potent greenhouse gas can originate from decomposing carbon stored in permafrost for thousands of years. Its release could accelerate climate warming and lead to more frequent wildfires in the tundra, where blazes have been historically rare.

The new study, published in Environmental Research Letters, was conducted by a team of scientists working as part of NASA's Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), a large-scale study of environmental change in Alaska and Western Canada.

Researchers found that methane hot spots were roughly 29% more likely to occur in tundra that had been scorched by wildfire in the past 50 years compared to unburned areas. The correlation nearly tripled in areas where a fire burned to the edge of a lake, stream, or other standing-water body. The highest ratio of hot spots occurred in recently burned wetlands.

The researchers first observed the methane hot spots using NASA's next-generation Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-NG) in 2017. Mounted on the belly of a research plane, the instrument has an optical sensor that records the interaction of sunlight with molecules near the land surface and in the air, and it has been used to measure and monitor hazards ranging from oil spills to crop disease.

Roughly 2 million hot spots—defined as areas showing an excess of 3,000 parts per million of methane between the aircraft and the ground—were detected across some 11,583 square miles (30,000 square kilometers) of the Arctic landscape. Regionally, the number of hot spot detections in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were anomalously high in 2018 surveys, but scientists didn't know what was driving their formation.

To help fill this gap, Elizabeth Yoseph, an intern at the time with the ABoVE campaign, focused on a methane-active region located in a wet and peaty area of the massive delta. Yoseph and the team used the AVIRIS-NG data to pinpoint hot spots across more than 687 square miles (1,780 square kilometers), then overlaid their findings on historical wildfire maps.

"What we uncovered is a very clear and strong relationship between fire history and the distribution of methane hot spots," said Yoseph, lead author of the new study.

The connection arises from what happens when fire burns into the carbon-rich frozen soil—permafrost—that underlies the tundra. Permafrost sequesters carbon from the atmosphere and can store it for tens of thousands of years. But when it thaws and breaks down in wet areas, flourishing microbes feed on and convert that old carbon to methane gas. The saturated soils around lakes and wetlands are especially rich stocks of carbon because they contain large amounts of dead vegetation and animal matter.

"When fire burns into permafrost, there are catastrophic changes to the land surface that are different from a fire burning here in California, for example," said Clayton Elder, co-author and scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, which developed AVIRIS-NG. "It's changing something that was frozen to thawed, and that has a cascading impact on that ecosystem long after the fire."

More research is needed to understand how a future of increasing blazes at high latitudes could impact the global climate. Arctic permafrost holds an estimated 1,700 billion metric tons of carbon—roughly 51 times the amount of carbon the world released as fossil fuel emissions in 2019.

All that stored carbon also means that the carbon intensity of fire emissions from burning tundra is extremely high, said co-author Elizabeth Hoy, a fire researcher at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland

Elizabeth Yoseph et al, Tundra fire increases the likelihood of methane hotspot formation in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, USA, Environmental Research Letters (2023)
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acf50b
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kassy

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1346 on: November 02, 2023, 04:25:16 PM »
Interesting. That is another source of methane increase in a warming world.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #1347 on: December 13, 2023, 09:36:09 AM »
Natural Gas Is Actually Migrating Under Permafrost, and Could See Methane Emissions Skyrocket If It Escapes
https://phys.org/news/2023-12-natural-gas-migrating-permafrost-methane.html



Beneath Svalbard's permafrost, millions of cubic meters of methane are trapped—and scientists have now learned that it can migrate beneath the cold seal of the permafrost and escape. A large-scale escape could create a cycle of warming that would send methane emissions skyrocketing: warming thaws the permafrost, causing more gas to escape, allowing more permafrost to thaw and more gas to be released.

What is surprising, and the focus of this study, is the widespread occurrence, both spatial and stratigraphic, of gas accumulations at the base of permafrost in Svalbard. High pressure gas is encountered at shallow depths of 30-200 m.

... The researchers used historical data from commercial and research wellbores to map the permafrost across Svalbard and identify permafrost gas accumulations.

"I and my supervisor Kim looked through a lot of the historical wellbore data in Svalbard," said Birchall. "Kim noticed that one recurring theme kept coming up, and that was these gas accumulations at the base of the permafrost."

The wellbore monitors identified gas influxes into the wellbore, indicating accumulations beneath the permafrost, and abnormal pressure measurements which showed that the icy permafrost was acting as a seal. In other cases, even where the permafrost and underlying geology were suitable for trapping gas, and the rocks were known sources of hydrocarbons, no gas was present—suggesting that the gas produced had already migrated.

The scientists emphasized that gas accumulations were much more common than expected. Of 18 hydrocarbon exploration wells drilled in Svalbard, eight showed evidence of permafrost and half of these struck gas accumulations. This is an extremely high success rate for something that was not being targeted, and thus highlights the likelihood that these gas accumulations are very common

"All the wells that encountered gas accumulations did so by coincidence—by contrast, hydrocarbon exploration wells that specifically target accumulations in more typical settings had a success rate far below 50%," said Birchall.

"These things seem to be common. One anecdotal example is from a wellbore that was drilled recently near the airport in Longyearbyen. The drillers heard a bubbling sound coming from the well, so we decided to have a look, armed with rudimentary alarms designed for detecting explosive levels of methane—which were immediately triggered when we held them over the wellbore." ...





Shallow gas associated with permafrost has been documented throughout much of the Circum-Arctic. Given the shared geological and glacial history, it is very likely that the gas accumulations we document in Svalbard are more widespread.

Thomas Birchall et al, Permafrost Trapped Natural Gas in Svalbard, Norway, Frontiers in Earth Science (2023)
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1277027/full
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