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What will NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average be?

Above 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
2 (3.6%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
12 (21.8%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
11 (20%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
8 (14.5%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
7 (12.7%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
4 (7.3%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
2 (3.6%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
8 (14.5%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
1 (1.8%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 50

Voting closed: July 11, 2020, 12:07:29 AM

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Author Topic: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll  (Read 3386 times)

Juan C. García

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NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« on: July 01, 2020, 12:07:29 AM »
ATTENTION: There are two ASI extent polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum [provided by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP)].
Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages on 2000-2019 (in millions km2):

   Year          Extent
                10^6 km2
1980's Avg.   7.21
1990's Avg.   6.66
2000's Avg.   5.65
2010's Avg.   4.68
2000             6.25
2001             6.73
2002             5.83
2003             6.12
2004             5.98
2005             5.50
2006             5.86
2007             4.27
2008             4.69
2009             5.26
2010             4.87
2011             4.56
2012             3.57
2013             5.21
2014             5.22
2015             4.62
2016             4.53
2017             4.82
2018             4.71
2019             4.32

Edit: Final 2020 result 3.92.

From lowest to highest:
« Last Edit: October 06, 2020, 06:21:11 AM by oren »
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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gandul

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2020, 12:46:11 AM »
My bet is 3.5 m km2 to 4.0 m km2, the second place is quite probable, a chance for the record too.
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Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2020, 07:22:00 AM »
Quote from: Juan C. García on June 10, 2020, 06:37:00 AM
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2
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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

kiwichick16

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2020, 07:54:25 AM »
September average  3 -  3.5  million sq  kms
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oren

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2020, 02:32:03 PM »
I've taken down one bin to 3.75-4.25. Daring, but I think the current ice condition and forecast call for some daring.
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Stephan

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2020, 10:34:01 PM »
Same bin chosen than in June: 4.25 ± 0.25 M km²
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Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2020, 05:11:17 PM »
Quote from: Juan C. García on July 01, 2020, 07:22:00 AM
Quote from: Juan C. García on June 10, 2020, 06:37:00 AM
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2
I changed my vote one bin down, to 3.75-4.25M km2.
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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

igs

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2020, 06:31:58 PM »
Quote from: Juan C. García on July 07, 2020, 05:11:17 PM
Quote from: Juan C. García on July 01, 2020, 07:22:00 AM
Quote from: Juan C. García on June 10, 2020, 06:37:00 AM
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2
I changed my vote one bin down, to 3.75-4.25M km2.


Welcom in Biwack 1  8)
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slow wing

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2020, 08:24:17 AM »
Voted [4.0,4.5] M km^2.

For the monthly average I just go 0.5M km^2 up from my choice in the daily minimum poll on the other thread.
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Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2020, 02:15:33 AM »
Two days left to make your vote or change your vote!
And write us about your forecast!  ;)
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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2020, 10:51:01 PM »
I forgot to vote - damn.

If, a big if, remaining melt from now to minimum is at the average of the last 10 years,
- the September monthly average would be 3.88 million km2,
- which is 0.48 million below the linear trend, and
- 0.33 million km2 above the 2012 September average.

If this pans out any of my votes would have been garbage anyway.
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