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What will PIOMAS 2020 Arctic sea ice volume September average be?

Above 9.00 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 8.00 and 9.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 7.00 and 8.25 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 6.25 and 7.25 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 5.75 and 6.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 5.50 and 6.00 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 5.25 and 5.75 10^3 km^3
1 (1.5%)
Between 5.00 and 5.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 10^3 km^3
1 (1.5%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 10^3 km^3
7 (10.8%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 10^3 km^3
9 (13.8%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 10^3 km^3
21 (32.3%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 10^3 km^3
11 (16.9%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 10^3 km^3
6 (9.2%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 10^3 km^3
6 (9.2%)
Under 3.00 10^3 km^3
3 (4.6%)

Total Members Voted: 64

Voting closed: July 11, 2020, 12:24:52 AM

Author Topic: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll  (Read 1874 times)

Juan C. García

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Until 2004, all years were above 10,000 km3. The years 2005 and 2006 were on the 9,000-10,000 km3 range. And from 2007 to 2019, the volume has been at 7,250 km3 or under. The worst year [2012] was 3,787 km3.

Values from the PIOMAS Monthly Ice Volume Data:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Year    Sept. Avg.
          (103 km3)
2000      11.08
2001      12.28
2002      10.85
2003      10.28
2004      10.04
2005        9.28
2006        9.11
2007        6.53
2008        7.25
2009        6.93
2010        4.74
2011        4.48
2012        3.79
2013        5.48
2014        6.97
2015        5.85
2016        4.53
2017        4.68
2018        5.08
2019        4.19

From lowest to highest:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2020, 03:46:06 AM »
It seems at this point 50% of our community thinks sea ice volume is smaller or about equal to 2012.
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

Juan C. García

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2020, 07:19:08 AM »
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2020, 09:33:09 AM »
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3
Dropping down one bucket from that based on the weather both of the last few weeks, and forecast.
This space for Rent.

oren

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2020, 02:36:46 PM »
Dropped two bins at once to 3.75-4.25. Not sure what the PIOMAS model will do but the Siberian ice is cooked, and the forecast calls for warm sunny weather and some export. Passing 2019 should not be hard, though passing 2012 is a different story.

Phoenix

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2020, 03:59:15 PM »
I'm waiting for the PIOMAS data and to see how things evolve in the Beaufort Sea.

Stephan

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2020, 10:32:32 PM »
I think 2020 can make it on top #3 position. Therefore I went for the 4.5 ± 0.25 k km³ bin. I was a little surprised to find my vote in the upper third of votes submitted so far.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

ajouis

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #7 on: July 04, 2020, 05:15:14 PM »
Having taken the lowest position, the piomas update confirms my suspicions, although it is too early to be able to forecast such an event, the continued system over the cab coupled with already rapid thinning we saw and export of the thickest ice forecasted for the first half of july, we are definitely going in that direction
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

Phoenix

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #8 on: July 04, 2020, 05:20:21 PM »
I'm going with 4.5 - 5.0

gerontocrat

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2020, 01:45:41 PM »
It's 3.75 to 4.25 '00 km3 for me, as 4,000 km3 is dead on trend.

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Pagophilus

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2020, 02:07:22 PM »
It's 3.75 to 4.25 '00 km3 for me, as 4,000 km3 is dead on trend.

I'm going with the numbers and Gerontocrat.
 
A lot is happening right now as the high forms over the pole just as there is max melting potential.  I wonder how many of us (including me) might be changing our minds in a week or two weeks time?
Person.  Woman.  Man.  Vote.  November.

Juan C. García

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2020, 05:09:22 PM »
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3
I changed my vote one bin down, to 3.75-4.25K km3
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Phoenix

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #12 on: July 08, 2020, 01:59:24 AM »
I'm going with 4.5 - 5.0

Just in case this prediction comes true, let's walk through the thought process which leads to it.

1- 2019 finished with 4.1M in volume and has about a 750K lead on 2020 through 6/30. If that difference holds...we're in business.

2 - 2020 did something I didn't expect by beating the trend of leading years in the last decade and setting a CAB volume loss record for the second half of June. Gotta respect the ability of this season to find a gear above and beyond that we've seen in the past.

3 - 2020 really kicked ass in the period from 6/16 - 6/21 with incremental volume loss. Looking back, the explanation that makes sense to me is high surface temps. It's not a common take, but I'm rolling with that as a big indicator of melt. I expect the first few days of July to be blockbuster volume losses and make up a few hundred km3 on 2019 which was absolutely not a slouch in early July.

4 - The surface temperature edge over the ice covered areas is getting lost in the forecast going forward. If the 850hpa temp crowd is right, I'm wrong.

5 - The Beaufort Sea may escape with a volume absolutely unheard of in recent years. The AWP deficit is just piling up and may reach 200 MJ / m2 by seasons end. The high pressure is causing the CAB to rotate some thick ice into the arm and the open water may not make it past 72N this year. The 2D Beaufort at the minimum might not look very different than it does today !!

6 - History informs that not much export is expected in the late season and this season might have almost none. The compaction has moved the Cablantic ice farther from Fram.

7 - I fully expect the Laptev to go super DEEP into the CAB. Past 85N. But that's it. The Atlantic side should wind up near the usual 82-83N with thick ice at the border. The ESS has a different identity than the Laptev and may not dent the CAB and the  Chukchi shouldn't either. We may even get a little left in the northern CAA which is currently taking a mini break.

Over 50 people are guessing a lower volume minimum than my bucket and one guess is higher. Obviously an outlier and set up to potentially fail spectacularly. Just in case it works out, I want to leave a trail of crumbs that helps explain the hunch.

jdallen

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #13 on: July 08, 2020, 05:04:44 AM »
I'm going with 4.5 - 5.0

Just in case this prediction comes true, let's walk through the thought process which leads to it.

1- 2019 finished with 4.1M in volume and has about a 750K lead on 2020 through 6/30. If that difference holds...we're in business.

You may want to rethink and rescale.

Arctic volume is ->thousands<- of cubic kilometres, not millions.

As such, it is commensurately more sensitive to changes in the heat budget.
This space for Rent.

Phoenix

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #14 on: July 08, 2020, 05:30:37 AM »
I'm going with 4.5 - 5.0

Just in case this prediction comes true, let's walk through the thought process which leads to it.

1- 2019 finished with 4.1M in volume and has about a 750K lead on 2020 through 6/30. If that difference holds...we're in business.

typo

You may want to rethink and rescale.

Arctic volume is ->thousands<- of cubic kilometres, not millions.

As such, it is commensurately more sensitive to changes in the heat budget.

slow wing

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #15 on: July 08, 2020, 08:30:46 AM »
I voted [3750,4250] km^3.

That brackets the 2 worst years: 2012 and 2019. I think we will be around there because:

1) This year is currently in the pack of lowest years for today's date;
2) The persistent current high pressure system over the Arctic is pouring in a lot of energy into the ice; and
3) Underneath the noise, the minimum volume is trending progressively lower, year-by-year.

Juan C. García

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2020, 02:14:47 AM »
Two days left to make your vote or change your vote!
And write us about your forecast!  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Pagophilus

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #17 on: July 15, 2020, 04:16:49 AM »
Thanks for running the poll, Juan.  How about another one in a week or so?  I bet the predictions will lean towards even lower values... 
Person.  Woman.  Man.  Vote.  November.

icefisher

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2020, 11:00:51 PM »
4.56 volume unless Beaufort and CAA both fail.

Juan C. García

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #19 on: July 16, 2020, 01:42:34 AM »
Thanks for running the poll, Juan.  How about another one in a week or so?  I bet the predictions will lean towards even lower values...
The tradition has been to have one poll [on extent & area] each month: June, July and August.
So I will make the last poll on August 1st.

But anyone can make comments in this poll, until we have the next one.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Phoenix

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Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #20 on: July 19, 2020, 03:12:10 PM »
I'm going with 4.5 - 5.0

3-I expect the first few days of July to be blockbuster volume losses and make up a few hundred km3 on 2019 which was absolutely not a slouch in early July. (Still waiting for daily results - but this prediction was a bullseye)

5 - The Beaufort Sea may escape with a volume absolutely unheard of in recent years. (Still holding strong)

6 - History informs that not much export is expected in the late season and this season might have almost none. The compaction has moved the Cablantic ice farther from Fram. (Color me surprised...Wip showing above average Fram export...not hugely material)

7 - I fully expect the Laptev to go super DEEP into the CAB. Past 85N. (On target)

The Atlantic side should wind up near the usual 82-83N with thick ice at the border. (We're already there. With the GAAC subsiding, we'll see if it holds)

The ESS has a different identity than the Laptev and may not dent the CAB and the  Chukchi shouldn't either. (TBD...ESS is breaking down, Chukchi holding strong)


We may even get a little left in the northern CAA which is currently taking a mini break. (TBD-still holding)


Overall, pretty much what I expected.