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Iceismylife

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #550 on: October 23, 2018, 07:52:33 PM »
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/23/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-145.54,60.48,794/loc=-148.891,58.120

Is that a hurricane forming? Or is it a GAC?  Do hurricanes even forum that far north?
At 32 km/h (20 miles/hr) it doesn't seem too powerful.
I saw but didn't link to something like 80 km/h  edge of hurricane strength.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #551 on: October 23, 2018, 08:52:52 PM »
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/23/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-145.54,60.48,794/loc=-148.891,58.120

Is that a hurricane forming? Or is it a GAC?  Do hurricanes even forum that far north?
At 32 km/h (20 miles/hr) it doesn't seem too powerful.
I saw but didn't link to something like 80 km/h  edge of hurricane strength.
Not quite, It still has a way to go ...

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

Cat 1 - 119-153 km/h - 74-95 mph - 64-82 kt
Cat 2 - 154-177 km/h - 96-110 mph - 83-95 kt
Cat 3 - 178-208 km/h - 111-129 mph - 96-112 kt
Cat 4 - 209-251 km/h - 130-156 mph - 113-136 kt
Cat 5 - >

It'll be a little choppy - not sailboat weather - but, without any ice in the vicinity, it seems pretty harmless.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #552 on: October 23, 2018, 09:08:16 PM »
Strong Indian Monsoons Steer Atlantic Hurricanes Towards Land
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-10/agu-sim102318.php

Strong monsoons in the Indian Ocean can induce easterly winds that push Atlantic Ocean hurricanes westward, increasing the likelihood they'll make landfall in the Americas, according to new research.

A new study finds that in years where summer rainstorms in India are stronger, Atlantic hurricanes move further westward towards land. In years where the rains aren't as strong, hurricanes tend to curve northward earlier and fizzle out in the north Atlantic Ocean.

The Indian monsoon season has typically waned by September, but climate projections suggest that under future warming conditions, monsoon precipitation will increase, and the monsoon season could end later in the year. As the climate continues to warm, the monsoon could have an increasing influence on the paths of Atlantic hurricanes, according to the new study.

Previous research has attributed changes in hurricane steering to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and air pressure in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Scientists have traditionally relied on the La Niña cool phase of ENSO to make predictions about how strong a particular Atlantic hurricane season will be, but have trouble forecasting the paths of individual hurricanes.

Strong monsoons influence hurricane steering by enhancing the effects of the North Atlantic subtropical high, a center of high atmospheric pressure in the Atlantic Ocean. When the subtropical high increases, stronger winds come from the east and push hurricanes westward.

According to Kelly, La Niña and the Indian monsoon are correlated, but the strength of the monsoon influences the steering of hurricanes independently of La Niña fluctuations, which are responsible for changes in hurricane frequency. In other words, La Niña fluctuations may result in more Atlantic hurricanes, but strong Indian monsoons steer them further westward, making it more likely they will make landfall in the Americas.

It's important to account for the correlation when studying hurricane steering and landfall probability.

"This work untangles La Niña's role on frequency, whether there are more or less hurricanes, from the steering impacts of winds, governed by the Indian monsoon," Kelly said. "La Niña events often happen during a strong monsoon, and they are correlated, but this work helps separate the independent influence of those two phenomena."

Patrick Kelly et al, Shape of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and the Indian Monsoon, Geophysical Research Letters (2018). https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080098

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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #553 on: October 24, 2018, 09:54:43 AM »

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #554 on: October 24, 2018, 03:00:23 PM »
The strongest typhoon this year.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #555 on: October 24, 2018, 06:37:37 PM »
Philip Klotzbach: "The 2018 Northeast Pacific (to 180°) #hurricane season has generated a whopping 34.5 major (Category 3+) hurricane days to date - shattering the old seasonal record of 24 major hurricane days set in 2015. #Willa”
https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1054761428656082944
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #556 on: October 24, 2018, 07:18:47 PM »
Hawaiian Island Erased by Powerful Hurricane
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/24/hawaiian-island-erased-by-powerful-hurricane

A piece of the United States has been dramatically wiped off the map after an island in Hawaii was washed away by a powerful hurricane.

East Island, a remote spit of gravel and sand that sat atop a coral reef, has vanished after having this misfortune to come into contact with Hurricane Walaka, an intense storm that surged past Hawaii earlier this month.

Scientists have confirmed the disappearance of the 11-acre island after comparing satellite images of the surrounding French Frigate Shoals, part of an enormous protected marine area in the north-western Hawaiian Islands.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #557 on: October 24, 2018, 07:35:51 PM »
Pressure decreased below 900 mb near the Mariana Islands.
31W YUTU
Quote
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 24, 2018:

Location: 14.6°N 146.2°E
Maximum Winds: 155 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 899 mb

vox_mundi

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #559 on: October 25, 2018, 03:54:09 PM »
Super Typhoon Yutu Impacts: Saipan, Tinian Suffer Widespread Damage; Water and Electricity Could Be Out for Weeks
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-24-typhoon-yutu-impacts-northern-mariana-islands
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #560 on: October 27, 2018, 01:56:52 PM »
Seventh subtropical storm appears in the Atlantic basin.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #561 on: October 27, 2018, 07:34:28 PM »
Looks like Yutu will hit the Philippines much further south than Mankhut.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #562 on: October 28, 2018, 11:08:46 PM »
”Yutu is the fifth Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone to make landfall in the past 15 months on U.S. soil. No previous decade has had more than four such strikes on American shorelines, making this an outbreak unseen in nearly 170 years of recorded weather history.

Like so many recent hurricanes, Yutu rapidly strengthened just before landfall, going from a Category 1 to a Category 5 in just 36 hours. Waters near Yutu were 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal, consistent with the effects of climate change and a key factor in rapidly strengthening storms.”

Typhoon Yutu spurs disaster in a remote U.S. territory
https://grist.org/article/typhoon-yutu-spurs-disaster-in-a-remote-u-s-territory/
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #563 on: October 29, 2018, 02:32:57 PM »
Seventh subtropical storm appears in the Atlantic basin.

Oscar is now a hurricane:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #564 on: October 29, 2018, 04:34:40 PM »
Satellite photos reveal the wrath of Yutu, one of Earth's strongest storms

Super Typhoon Yutu struck the Northern Mariana Islands on October 24, packing maximum sustained winds of 180 miles per hour and gusts higher than 200 mph. This made it the most intense storm to strike U.S. soil since at least 1935, and one of the strongest storms ever measured on Earth.

At one point, the eye of Super Typhoon Yutu completely engulfed Tinian. Meteorologists are combing through the debris for clues as to how high the winds actually got, since no anemometer survived the onslaught to provide accurate readings.

https://images.axios.com/XQuAlXM-rPmh1q42tOvcCwa5yNU=/2018/10/28/1540693705813.gif

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #565 on: October 30, 2018, 02:59:13 PM »
5 Reasons the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Has Been Unusual
Quote
Hurricane season still has about a month left to go, but it's already been memorable for several unusual reasons.
Through Oct. 28, the Atlantic has produced 15 named storms, of which, eight strengthened into hurricanes. That's above the 1981-2010 average of 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes per year. ...
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-29-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season-unusual
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #566 on: November 11, 2018, 08:40:35 PM »
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack)
11/11/18, 1:43 PM
NHC indicates high chance of development now with tropical wave as it moves north of the Caribbean islands this coming week.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1061690997208477696
<< Still thinking it will turn?
MS:  Yes - only concerns I see would be shipping and cruise interests. Will discuss in detail during my video post tomorrow.

Image below.
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bligh8

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #567 on: November 12, 2018, 03:07:21 PM »
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A vigorous tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a large area of disturbed weather over much of
the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased and become a little more concentrated this
morning, and environmental conditions are forecast to gradually
become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression
or a tropical storm during the next day or so. The disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few
days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

bligh8

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #568 on: November 13, 2018, 03:05:31 PM »
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms moving through the
Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave interacting
with an upper-level low.  Strong upper-level winds and interaction
with the islands of the Greater Antilles, while the system moves
generally westward, should inhibit tropical cyclone formation.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #569 on: November 14, 2018, 07:54:38 PM »
Storms of Our Grandchildren? Something to look forward to ...

Climate Simulations Project Wetter, Windier Hurricanes
https://m.phys.org/news/2018-11-climate-simulations-wetter-windier-hurricanes.html


The computer simulation on the left shows the rainfall intensity of Hurricane Maria under actual conditions. The other images show how much anthropogenic warming already has impacted rainfall intensity (middle) and its projected impact in a warmer climate (RCP8.5). Green areas indicate heavier rain while brown areas mean less rain.   

New supercomputer simulations by climate scientists at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have shown that climate change intensified the amount of rainfall in recent hurricanes such as Katrina, Irma, and Maria by 5 to 10 percent. They further found that if those hurricanes were to occur in a future world that is warmer than present, those storms would have even more rainfall and stronger winds.

... They found that rainfall could increase 15 to 35 percent in the future scenarios. Wind speeds increased by as much as 25 knots, although most hurricanes saw increases of 10 to 15 knots. "The fact that almost all of the 15 tropical cyclones responded in a similar way gives confidence in the results," Patricola said.

Another interesting finding was that the structure of storms may change where rainfall is more intense in the eye of the hurricane but less intense on the outer edges. "In a warmer world the inner part of the storm is robbing moisture from the outer part of storm," Wehner said.

The study, "Anthropogenic Influences on Major Tropical Cyclone Events," will be published November 15 in the journal Nature.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0673-2
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #570 on: November 16, 2018, 09:05:26 PM »
Storm Gaja leaped over India into the Arabian Sea. With 6 cyclonic storms, 2018 North Indian season is the most active since 1998.