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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #650 on: October 15, 2019, 03:51:35 AM »
For the current thinking on how climate change is affecting cyclones see:

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1

There isn't overwhelming evidence for anything yet, but the sorts of things that look suspicious are listed in the summary.

 "Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:
i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;
ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;
iii)increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades;
and v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region. "

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #651 on: October 15, 2019, 06:56:44 AM »
Quote
My thoughts precisely. F that Summary
I know I am not a  scientist.
I am more interested in the future risks of climate change  than  arbitrary significant figures needed for publishing iron clad conclusions in a  scientific paper .
I know  from personal interaction that Kerry Emanuel , Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, accessible and identifiable  experts in tropic cyclones, are all convinced the risk of stronger storms are both physically possible and probably happening now.
They are acknowledged  experts KK is just some random on the interwebs .
KK has a long history of down playing potentials and disregarding risks on here.
KK is a nobody with no authority at all except in questions in  their own field which I understand is chemistry so can safely be ignored.
Kerry Emanuel https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Z6eI_ZYAAAAJ&hl=en
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, https://www.wunderground.com/cat6
 



Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #652 on: October 15, 2019, 02:25:28 PM »
For the current thinking on how climate change is affecting cyclones see:

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1

There isn't overwhelming evidence for anything yet, but the sorts of things that look suspicious are listed in the summary.

 "Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:
i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;
ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;
iii)increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades;
and v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region. "

Very nice, and may I add a few more summaries:
i) The opinion on the author team was divided on whether any observed poleward TC changes demonstrate discernible anthropogenic influence.
ii) None of these observed tropical cyclone timeseries demonstrate clear evidence for a century-scale increase similar to that observed for global mean temperature.
iii-a)  U.S. landfalling hurricane counts (1878-2017) show a nominally negative decline, although
        the trend over 1900-2017 is not statistically significant.
iii-b) The timeseries of tropical cylcone landfalls for Japan since 1901 and global tropical cyclone
        and hurricane frequency since 1970 also show no strong evidence for trends.
iii)  In summary, no detectable anthropogenic influence has been identified to date in observed TC
      landfalling data, using Type I error avoidance criteria. From the viewpoint of Type II error
      avoidance, one of the above changes (decrease in severe landfalling TCs in eastern Australia)
      was rated as detectable, though not attributable to anthropogenic forcing.
iv)    A slight increasing trend in global intensity for the strongest TCs (at least hurricane
intensity) was identified (p-value of 0.1).
v)  we conclude that there is only low confidence in detection and attribution of any anthropogenic influence on historical TC intensity in any basin or globally.  However, ten of 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that there is a detectable increase in the global average intensity of the strongest (hurricane-strength) tropical clyclones since the early 1980s.
vi)  the evidence for detectable increases in U.S storm total inundation levels, apart from changes expected from sea level rise influence, is mixed.
vii)  In summary, the author team had low confidence that anthropogenic influence specifically on hurricane precipitation rates has been detected. Alternatively, all authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that there has been a detectable long-term increase in occurrence of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the eastern Texas region, and that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to this increase.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #653 on: October 15, 2019, 09:20:15 PM »
2,667 Bags of Radioactive Waste From Fukushima Nuke Disaster Washed Away by Typhoon Hagibis
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3795303

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As Typhoon Hagibis hammered Japan on Saturday (Oct. 12), thousands of bags containing radioactive waste have reportedly been carried into a local Fukushima stream by floodwaters, potentially having a devastating environmental impact.

According to Asahi Shimbun, a temporary storage facility containing some 2,667 bags stuffed with radioactive contaminants from the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster was unexpectedly inundated by floodwaters brought by Typhoon Hagibis. Torrential rain flooded the storage facility and released the bags into a stream 100 meters away.

Officials from Tamara City in Fukushima Prefecture said that each bag is approximately one cubic meter in size. Authorities were only able to recover six of the bags by 9 p.m. on Oct. 12, and it is uncertain how many remain on the loose while the possible environmental impact is being assessed.

... In Hakone, in Kanagawa Prefecture, 37.1 inches of rain fell in 24 hours on Saturday, setting a record for that location, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. In addition, 27 inches fell in heavily forested Shizuoka Prefecture southwest of Tokyo. In higher elevations just west of downtown Tokyo, 23.6 inches of rain fell, which was also a record.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #654 on: October 15, 2019, 11:54:55 PM »
Fukushima, the disaster that keeps on disastering.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #655 on: October 15, 2019, 11:59:27 PM »
^
It's the Japanese word for clusterfuck.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #656 on: October 16, 2019, 10:03:02 AM »
Seventeen.

Juan C. García

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #657 on: October 16, 2019, 12:34:13 PM »
At Nullschool seems that there are two depressions forming, not just one.
One on the Pacific and one on the Gulf of Mexico.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #658 on: October 16, 2019, 08:17:40 PM »
The Florida panhandle still has not recovered from Hurricane Michael.  :'(

Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 10/16/19, 12:12 PM
12z GFS The most aggressive yet in developing a storm system in the Gulf of Mexico. While it may not be your classic looking tropical cyclone, the impacts would still be the same: heavy rain, wind and some coastal inundation possible.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1184502441703858180
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #659 on: October 17, 2019, 09:14:46 PM »
Quote
Capital Weather Gang on Twitter: "Bomb cyclone slams New England with 90 mph winds and 4+ inches of rain. Power was knocked out to >500,000 as the storm blew through, winds will stay gusty all day from D.C. to Maine.
Details:
Washington Post article: https://t.co/SZnOLZKpNY
https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1184841964270821376

Quote
Eric Fisher on Twitter: "Meteotsunami in Boston Harbor last night. Water spiked 4+ feet above normal tide. If this had hit during a high astro tide it would have set a new high water record
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1184809615202099200
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bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #660 on: October 17, 2019, 11:46:58 PM »
in Japan Time


https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/10/16/national/flooding-tama-river-tokyo-crisis-typhoon-hagibis/#.XajgDPZuLIU


"Flooding of Tama River put capital on the brink of crisis during Typhoon Hagibis
by Reiji Yoshida
Staff Writer

Oct 16, 2019



Tokyo faced crisis last Saturday, with water levels in the Tama River quickly climbing as heavy rains and winds from Typhoon Hagibis inundated the Kanto region on an unprecedented scale.
Hakone, in Kanagawa Prefecture, saw a staggering 922.5 mm of rain that day alone — three times as much as the total for the month of October of an average year.


Levees all along the Tama, which stretches over 138 kilometers between Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture, were designed to withstand precipitation levels seen only once in every 200 years. But at the Ishihara observation station in the capital’s Chofu area, water levels had hit their highest-ever record of 6.24 meters by 11 p.m. on Saturday, far exceeding the 5.9 meters threshold the levees were built to withstand.
Since the levees were designed to have a safety margin of 1.5 meters, making their total height 7.4 meters at the Ishihara observation station, the riverbanks withstood the storm, but only barely.
Any failure of levees along the Tama River could have brought devastating flooding to areas of Tokyo and Kanagawa. For the first time ever, the city of Kawasaki issued an urgent warning, for 915,770 local residents to evacuate by 7 p.m. that night.
“Yes, the situation was very tense,” said Kenichi Ito, who heads the initial crisis management response team at Kawasaki Municipal Government.

In the age of climate change
That tense night for Tokyo and Kanagawa residents has underscored the risks Japan faces in the age of climate change, predicted to increase the number of powerful typhoons like Hagibis.
“This time, the (levees of the) Tama River withstood the typhoon well,” said Nobuyuki Tsuchiya, a senior civil engineering expert for the Tokyo-based Japan Riverfront Research Center.
But given the progression of climate change, stronger typhoons are more likely to strike Tokyo and the metropolitan area, which are “not in any way ready yet (to handle such storms),” he said.
In March 2018, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government released the results of a flood simulation based on a worst-case scenario involving a massive typhoon simultaneously causing heavy rains and tidal flooding.
The results were shocking: Waters would submerge about one-third of the 23 wards of central Tokyo, including 90 percent of Sumida, Katsushika and Edogawa wards, as well as parts of the Marunouchi, Shimbashi and Ginza downtown business districts — the heart of the nation’s capital.
The three wards in eastern Tokyo are particularly vulnerable because many of them are so-called “zero-meter zones,” meaning they are lower than sea level.
According to the metropolitan government, the simulation was based on a worst-case scenario that could happen only once every 1,000 to 5,000 years. But experts warn that powerful typhoons are likely to hit Tokyo more frequently than in the past as the climate continues to warm.
Last Saturday, the Arakawa River also rose to an alarming level, prompting the Edogawa Ward Office to issue an advisory for 432,000 local residents to evacuate."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #661 on: October 18, 2019, 02:34:59 AM »
Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 10/17/19, 5:00 PM
Here are the 4 PM CDT Key Messages on Potential Tropical Cyclone #Sixteen. Latest information at: hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1184937203668942848
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #662 on: October 18, 2019, 08:43:59 PM »
We're expecting some gusty weather tonight and tomorrow from Tropical Storm Nestor [formerly PTC 16] (Tallahassee, Florida, USA) with less than 60 mm (or between 75 and 125 mm - depending on the NOAA source!) of rain during the next ~24 hours.  A tri-state Sacred Harp sing got cancelled on us as the county which owns the facility we were going to rent is concerned about power outages.  :(  [But more spinach lasagna, which I prepared last night, for us!  :o]

Edit:  the "60 mm" forecast has changed to over 100.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2019, 11:30:44 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #663 on: October 18, 2019, 09:01:51 PM »
* blumenkraft crossing fingers for Tor!
Refugees welcome

be cause

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #664 on: October 19, 2019, 02:38:01 AM »
Guess the rain is warm .. get out and enjoy it Tor .. b.c. :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #665 on: October 19, 2019, 01:18:11 PM »
What rain?
My rain gauge has 10 mm since yesterday (before this storm) and, except for my bare feet, I stayed dry going out to read the thing. (Still, over 50mm forecast over next 12 hours)
Warm?
It's 21 C outside - the 'coldest' since last spring! (I'll admit it is very pleasant outside right now, except that it's pitch black dark out there.)
Approaching tropical storm?
My approximation of wind at ground level right now, here, is 0 kts (converted to metric is 0 m/s).  Oh wait, I hear a breeze in the tree tops.  It's gone now.

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blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #666 on: October 19, 2019, 02:01:33 PM »
See, finger-crossing obviously works.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #667 on: October 19, 2019, 02:56:53 PM »
See, finger-crossing obviously works.

Not everybody has crossed their fingers, and even if they have......
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #668 on: October 19, 2019, 04:46:21 PM »
Update...
rain gauge still indicates 10 mm of rain (I was 'walking' our 21 year old cat earlier (He loves to drink from the bird bath and walk around the house.), and there was this hyper-light rain that functionally evaporated off my skin instantly, so I guess there's been a trace of rain since 6 o'clock this morning (e.g., last 4 hours).  Forecast calls for about 25 mm in next two hours.  I'm wondering if we get 1. Just now a little rain shower has arrived.  Radar shows some 'yellow' overhead.  We'll get more than '1', but I rather doubt even 10 mm more.

It is definitely breezier now, well, intermittently breezier.

It is no longer pitch black dark outside  ::)

For some context, Tallahassee has had a very dry late summer that was broken earlier this week with 75 mm of rain in about 2 days, ending Wednesday.  More context: parts of the Florida Peninsula have received up to 100 mm of rain from Tropical Storm Nestor (now Post Tropical or Extra-tropical Nestor?) and at least one tornado.  Apparently its center has not yet come ashore.

Edit 3 and a half hours later:  my rain gauge has accumulated 25 mm total for this 'storm'.  There's a chance for some more 'rain' (drizzle).  A real pity our event was cancelled on us.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2019, 08:20:05 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #669 on: October 20, 2019, 07:55:44 PM »
The highest ACE for the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season is 46.1. Current value is 37.1.