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Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1000 on: February 18, 2020, 09:03:21 PM »
Russia bans all Chinese people from 20 February. So they are getting scary. https://www.rt.com/russia/481133-russia-bans-china-visitors-coronavirus/

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1001 on: February 18, 2020, 09:28:38 PM »
If it's loose in Tokyo ...

Tokyo International Airport commonly known as Haneda Airport is one of the two primary airports that serve the Greater Tokyo Area, and is the primary base of Japan's two major domestic airlines, Japan Airlines (Terminal 1) and All Nippon Airways (Terminal 2), as well as Air Do, Skymark Airlines, Solaseed Air, and StarFlyer.

Focus city for Singapore Airlines

Number of passengers - 87,098,680 (2018)


--------------------------------

Narita International Airport originally known as New Tokyo International Airport is an international airport serving the Greater Tokyo Area of Japan.

Passengers   42,601,130 - (2018)

( ... I'm too lazy to.figure out how many a day, but I'm thinkin', between the 2 of them, it's a shit ton.

~ 300,000/day

... and where do they go - to every major city on the planet
)



... History shows again and again
How nature points out the folly of man
Godzilla! 
« Last Edit: February 18, 2020, 10:37:19 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Bruce Steele

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1002 on: February 18, 2020, 10:22:11 PM »
The party was on Jan.18th. There were seventy taxi drivers and about 130 other people in attendance.
On Feb. 13th Japan had it’s first fatality, the mother in law of one of the taxi drivers . The investigation started on that day but how many taxi drivers were infected while carrying passengers ?
 The Jonan district of Tokyo where the taxi drivers worked is also the location of Haneda Airport.

https://ilsc.tokyo/eng/region/jonan.html

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1003 on: February 18, 2020, 11:13:38 PM »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1004 on: February 18, 2020, 11:29:16 PM »
Quote
Way to many medical workers getting sick. Their masks aren’t working IMO. The WHO needs to identify the weaknesses in medical staff protective gear. I would question the efficacy of all masks even r-95.
Warm and moist filtering the virus out of many liters of  air .
A mask used incorrectly is an effective virus concentration and  incubation  device .
Wearing one as a  prophylactic is fine but be very careful with cleanliness when you touch, remove or dispose of  one.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1005 on: February 18, 2020, 11:45:54 PM »
Guidelines Issued to Slow Rush On Hospitals Due to Coronavirus
http://www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/articles/13138327

The Japanese Government Ministry of Health is urging people with cold-like symptoms and mild fevers to sit tight at home, don't panic and rush to hospitals, so medical facilities can focus on handling serious cases of coronavirus infection.

Guidelines issued Feb. 17 recommend that people with mild symptoms remain at home for three days, and if they persist for a fourth day, to contact a consulting counseling center at a local public health center to seek help at a designated medical institution.

... Health authorities recommended these steps on grounds that many patients have recovered from COVID-19 after coming down with only a mild fever and sore throat.

“If their symptoms are stable, they do not need to rush to seek a medical examination,” said Nobuhiko Okabe, director-general of the Kawasaki City Institute for Public Health, who was involved in crafting the criteria.

When cold-like symptoms or a fever of at least 37.5 degrees persists for four days, people are advised to call consultation centers dealing with COVID-19 issues.

The guidelines also recommend that elderly people and those with underlying ailments, such as diabetes, heart problems and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or who are undergoing dialysis or chemotherapy, should seek counseling if cold-like symptoms persist for two days.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1006 on: February 19, 2020, 12:03:06 AM »
The Coronavirus Outbreak Could Bring Out the Worst in Trump
https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/606610/

When a senior White House aide would brief President Donald Trump in 2018 about an Ebola-virus outbreak in central Africa, it was plainly evident that hardships roiling a far-flung part of the world didn’t command his attention. He was zoning out. “It was like talking to a wall,” a person familiar with the matter told me.

Now a new coronavirus that originated in China is confronting him with a potential pandemic, a problem that Trump seems ill-prepared to meet.

A crisis that is heading into its third month could draw out every personal and managerial failing that the president has shown to this point.

Much of what he’s said publicly about the virus has been wrong, a consequence of downplaying any troubles on his watch. He has long stoked fears that foreigners entering the United States bring disease. Now he may double down on xenophobic suspicions. He has hollowed out federal agencies and belittled expertise, prioritizing instead his own intuition and the demands of his political base. But he’ll need to rely on a bureaucracy he’s maligned to stop the virus’s spread.

“We have a president who doesn’t particularly care about competent administration, and who created a culture in which bad news is shut down,” says Democratic Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii, whose state is home to one of multiple airports screening passengers for the coronavirus. “And when you’re dealing with a potential pandemic, you need to know all the bad news. If this disease ends up not overwhelming us, that would be a blessing. But it would not be because the Trump administration was ready. They were not.”

...

... Trump insists on being the protagonist in every drama. He wants to promote the idea that everything on his watch is improving. Virology isn’t politics, though. Tweets don’t beget vaccines. Following his instincts in the face of an outbreak that has left the world on edge risks making things worse.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1007 on: February 19, 2020, 12:22:41 AM »
Covid-19 Outbreak Could Disrupt Global Supply Chain, Affecting 5 Million Companies
https://www.dnb.com/content/dam/english/economic-and-industry-insight/DNB_Business_Impact_of_the_Coronavirus_US.pdf
https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-update-covid-19-outbreak-could-disrupt-global-supply-chain-affecting-5-2924375

A recent study published by commercial data firm Dun & Bradstreet indicates the ongoing coronavirus outbreak in China could dramatically impact the global supply chain, affecting 5 million companies worldwide.

The report, titled “The Worldwide Business Impact of the Coronavirus,” looked at the 19 Chinese provinces that have had 100 cases or more of coronavirus -- officially dubbed Covid-19 -- as of Feb. 5, and analyzed their influence on the global economy. Five of the Chinese provinces in the impacted area -- Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Beijing, and Shandong -- make up 50% of total Chinese employment and 48% of total sales volume in the country.

There are currently 49,000 businesses in the impacted region that are branches or subsidiaries of companies headquartered outside China. Nearly half of these global companies are headquartered in Hong Kong while the U.S. has 19%. Japan accounts for 12%, and 5% of the companies there are headquartered in Germany.

Around 51,000 global companies have “tier 1” suppliers in the impacted regio, while at least 5 million companies have “tier 2” suppliers in the area.

A “tier 1” supplier refers to a manufacturer that provides a good to a company without a middleman. A “tier 2” supplier is a company that provides a product to the “Tier 1” firm, as part of a larger supply chain.

------------------------------

OneOcean Provides Live Updates on the Coronavirus
www.oneocean.com/coronavirus

The single webpage report can be accessed by anyone, not just OneOcean software subscribers, to aid and alert workforces across the shipping, cruise and wider maritime industries.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1008 on: February 19, 2020, 01:36:04 AM »
Existing confirmed cases 57886 down 211 on yesterdays 58097.

Was 58097 the peak?

Existing confirmed plus suspected cases now 63134 down from peak of 65920 4 days ago with 4 consecutive falls totaling nearly 2800.

Severe cases still going up but that is to be expected, they are likely to take longer to cure so likely to peak later.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1009 on: February 19, 2020, 01:50:21 AM »
Try to imagine what those doctors are going through, suited up, working god knows what shifts, surrounded by people gasping for breath...
It must be like Dante's Inferno.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1010 on: February 19, 2020, 02:17:36 AM »
China’s National Health Commission authorities reported a global total of 75,179 confirmed cases and 2,009 cumulative deaths so far. Current Severe/Critical is 11,977.



----------------------------

China Measures Seem to Have Delayed Spread, WHO Says
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/deaths-hit-2000-cruise-passengers-to-be-released-virus-update/ar-BB108yhK

China’s aggressive quarantine tactics delayed the spread of the coronavirus from the outbreak’s center, said a top official at the World Health Organization.

... “Those measures on movement restriction have delayed the dissemination of the outbreak by two or three days within China, and two or three weeks outside China,” said Sylvie Briand, the WHO’s director of global infectious hazard preparedness.

Briand said that estimate was based on modeling of the disease’s spread, and it will take time to know for certain.

--------------------------------

Virus-Free Indonesia More Threatened by COVID-19 than Singapore, Malaysia: Survey
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/18/virus-free-indonesia-more-threatened-by-covid-19-than-singapore-malaysia-survey.html

... The international study, which surveyed some 27,000 people in 23 countries and regions, measures the level of coronavirus concerns across the globe.

Indonesia ranked second after China as the country most concerned about the deadly outbreak, which has killed more than 1,800 globally.

Conducted from Jan. 31 to Feb. 11, the survey found that 72 percent of respondents in the archipelago considered COVID-19 a “major threat” to public health, despite Indonesia having no confirmed cases of the disease so far.

Mainland China — home to the outbreak’s epicenter, Wuhan city in Hubei province — ranks first on the index, with 77 percent of its citizens viewing the virus as a huge threat to their homeland.

In terms of viewing the virus as “major threat” at home, Indonesia ranked first among Southeast Asian countries surveyed, including Thailand (71 percent), the Philippines (70 percent), Malaysia (62 percent) and Singapore (58 percent), all of which have recorded coronavirus cases.

In the Middle East, for instance, Saudi Arabia ranks first (66 percent) in terms of viewing the virus as a huge threat, followed by Kuwait (60 percent) and the United Arab Emirates (56 percent).

The survey also finds that people in some countries of Europe and the United States are less threatened by the virus than any other people in the Asia Pacific and the Middle East.

For instance, only 27 percent of respondents in the United States, 23 percent in the United Kingdom and 19 percent in Germany think of the COVID-19 as a major threat to their home countries.

-----------------------------

(... My doctor appears to be one of the 73% (i.e.100-27=73) ... Que será, será )

-----------------------------

Fortitude Ranch In Colorado Is An Underground Virus Pandemic Shelter For The Masses
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimdobson/2020/02/18/fortitude-ranch-in-colorado-is-an-underground-virus-pandemic-shelter-for-the-masses/amp/
« Last Edit: February 19, 2020, 02:24:47 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1011 on: February 19, 2020, 02:22:59 AM »
Existing confirmed cases 57886 down 211 on yesterdays 58097.

Was 58097 the peak?

Existing confirmed plus suspected cases now 63134 down from peak of 65920 4 days ago with 4 consecutive falls totaling nearly 2800.

Severe cases still going up but that is to be expected, they are likely to take longer to cure so likely to peak later.

good news...

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1012 on: February 19, 2020, 03:16:25 AM »
截至 2020-02-18 18:05 全国数据统计
数据说明

57,885 现存确诊     -212 较昨日
  5,248 现存疑似 +1,185 较昨日
11,977 现存重症    +236 较昨日
74,279 累计确诊 +1,751 较昨日
  2,006 累计死亡    +136 较昨日
14,388 累计治愈 +1,827 较昨日

As of 2020-02-18 18:05 National Statistics
the data shows

57,885 Existing diagnosis.            -212 since yesterday
  5,248 Suspected                    +1,185 since yesterday
11,977 Existing severe condition  +236 since yesterday
74,279 Cumulative diagnoses    +1,751 since yesterday
  2,006 Cumulative deaths           +136 since yesterday
14,388 Cumulative recovered.   +1,827 since yesterday

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1013 on: February 19, 2020, 05:19:09 AM »
It Can't Be Contained ...   :(

Medical Report Underscores the Limits of Screening Travelers for Coronavirus 
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-18/report-shows-limits-of-coronavirus-screening?_amp=true

Two German citizens who appeared healthy when they were evacuated from Wuhan, China, in early February were in fact infected with the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 and might have been capable of spreading it to others, according to a medical report released Tuesday.

The findings, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, underscore the limitations of health screenings that have been implemented around the world in hopes of containing the novel virus.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001899

Health officials began screening travelers from China in mid-January, a few weeks after the outbreak began. Those arriving at U.S. airports, for instance, are checked for signs of a fever, cough or trouble breathing to determine whether they require further evaluation in a medical facility.

The two Germans were part of a group of 126 people who flew from Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, to Frankfurt, Germany, on Feb. 1.

Six of the passengers were isolated during the flight because they had symptoms consistent with coronavirus infection. Two other passengers were relatives of theirs who joined them in isolation, and another two were separated because they had been in contact with someone who had tested positive for the virus.

Upon arrival in Germany, those 10 passengers were sent to University Hospital Frankfurt. Throat swabs and sputum samples were tested for a genetic match to the virus using an RT-PCR assay sanctioned by the World Health Organization. In all 10 cases, the tests results were negative.

The other 116 passengers were evaluated by medical personnel at Frankfurt Airport. The travelers’ noses and throats were examined, and their temperatures were taken. They were also asked about a host of symptoms, including muscle aches, coughing, fatigue and diarrhea.

One passenger had a fever of 101 degrees and was taken to the same hospital as the others. Later, that person also tested negative for the coronavirus.

The remaining 115 passengers were transferred to military quarters in Germersheim for a 14-day quarantine. Although they showed no signs of illness, they were offered a test to see whether they were infected. All but one of them agreed to take the RT-PCR assay.

Two of those 114 travelers turned out to be infected, the results revealed. Officials then repeated the tests and got the same results. The diagnosis was also confirmed with a pair of commercial tests.


Not only were both travelers infected, but the way their samples grew in laboratory dishes indicated that they had the potential to infect others, according to the report.

“We discovered that shedding of potentially infectious virus may occur in persons who have no fever and no signs or only minor signs of infection,” wrote the team led by Dr. Sebastian Hoehl of University Hospital Frankfurt.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that neither of the travelers became very sick. They were admitted to the hospital and thoroughly evaluated, but all that doctors turned up was “a faint rash” and slightly sore throat in one of them.

Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Returning Travelers from Wuhan, China
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001899



... In addition to the preplanned multistep process of screening for signs and symptoms of infection and observing the asymptomatic cohort in quarantine, we decided to offer a throat swab to test for SARS-CoV-2 in each of the 115 travelers who had passed triage. A total of 114 passengers consented to the test.

Two of the 114 persons (1.8%) in this cohort of travelers who had passed the symptoms-based screening tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR (cycle threshold value in the two samples, 24.39 and 30.25, respectively). Testing with a second protocol consisting of two commercial sets (LightMix Modular SARS and Wuhan CoV E-gene, and LightMix Modular Wuhan CoV RdRP-gene, both produced by TIB MOLBIOL) and retesting of the positive samples at the Institute of Virology, Philipps University Marburg, in Marburg, Germany, confirmed the results. In addition, the isolation of SARS-CoV-2 from both samples in cell culture of Caco-2 cells indicated potential infectivity (see the Supplementary Appendix, available with the full text of this letter at NEJM.org).

These two persons were subsequently isolated from the cohort and transferred to the Infectious Disease Unit at University Hospital Frankfurt for further evaluation and observation on the following day. After a thorough evaluation in the hospital ward, a faint rash and minimal pharyngitis were observed in one patient. Both patients remained well and afebrile 7 days after admission

In this effort to evacuate 126 people from Wuhan to Frankfurt, a symptom-based screening process was ineffective in detecting SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2 persons who later were found to have evidence of SARS-CoV-2 in a throat swab. We discovered that shedding of potentially infectious virus may occur in persons who have no fever and no signs or only minor signs of infection.


--------------------------

Death Rate from Covid-19 is 2.67%

The death rate from the novel coronavirus has risen to 2.67%, based on today’s official figures from China. That’s based on 2,010 deaths worldwide and 75,199 confirmed cases.

The rate was thought to be around 2%. I’m not an expert in infectious diseases but that figure is growing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/cityu_jzhu/status/1229979402819080192

« Last Edit: February 19, 2020, 05:29:18 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1014 on: February 19, 2020, 05:41:31 AM »
Ten Kyodo News Staff Rode Vehicle Driven by Man Confirmed To Have COVID-19
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/18/national/kyodo-staff-coronavirus/#.Xky7A2lOk0O

Ten staff from a Japanese news agency, Kyodo News, were reportedly driven in a hired vehicle in January and early February by a man who has since tested positive for Covid-19.

The Japan Times reports that the staff were sent home to self-quarantine. In 14 days since their last contact with the man, seven of the staff members have shown no symptoms and will soon return to work. Three remain at home. None have actually been tested for the virus.

The Japan Times points out, however, that some of the staff could be political journalists who attend briefings at the office of prime minister Shinzo Abe.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1015 on: February 19, 2020, 07:51:55 AM »
I see so many posts in this thread saying China invented this virus as a bioweapon.

But with all this negligence taking place in Japan, i don't see posts that Abe is willfully killing off his own people with the virus on purpose.

Isn't that odd?

Because Japan could really use some fewer older folks. Here the motives are way more blatant. Here the conspiracy theory would actually make some sense, but no one is so stupid to say it. But when it comes to China, all bets are off.

There is a simple answer to why that is: There is no propaganda war going on concerning Japan.

And without the media telling people what to think, people just don't think.

Fucking sheeple use your brain alright.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2020, 08:37:00 AM by blumenkraft »
"damn .. one apocalypse getting in the way of another .." - be cause

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1016 on: February 19, 2020, 07:55:53 AM »
Vox,

Let's think about this for a minute.

Is it likely at all that the death rate is changing significantly? To do so, the treatment would have had to begun failing. While that is certainly possible, it does not appear to be the case.

So then, what is at work here? Note how these death rates are calculated. They divide the number having died by the number confirmed sick with the virus. We know the infected population was growing at a rate of 62% per day. Recently that has sharply declines because of the extreme efforts by the Chinese.

We know that it takes about 6 days on average (with a broad spread) for someone confirmed sick to die. We know too that it takes another week or more to be declared recovered on average. And again there is wide variability.

So, as the number infected was growing, the ratio of dead to infected is always lagging the curve so to speak. The ratio then -understates- the actual death rate. Ditto for the recovery rates.

Another way to see this, is using the same naive math on the recovered population we get a very low recovery rate. Now add those two numbers. It should be 100%. But it is no where near 100%.

What that says is that there are a whole lot of people infected who have neither died not recovered. They haven't been counted in either pool yet. Though they are counted as confirmed sick.

See the problem.

Now, we can use a sliding scale of those who died, recovered or were declared sick in the last day, or week or month. So long as the exponential growth continues, that too suffers the same problem.

It is only once the number getting sick approximates the number dying and recovering combined for some period of time (weeks to months) that we can begin to use that math to estimate the actual death rate.

Meanwhile, the disease is still acting the same. The death rate is probably nearly uniform once the age and gender distribution is accounted for.

In other populations with other health conditions, different genetics, ... the actual underlying process may differ and the death rate may be different. That is yet to be seen.

Curves like the one you found are not helpful. They falsely portray the lethality of the virus as less than it actually is. And that leads decision makers and politicians, epidemiologists and others to make very bad decisions.

To be clear - it is helpful that you found the information. The information itself has the problem. Having a changing death rate with time is a first crude indicator that something is wrong in how the death rate is being calculated.  What ever is causing the differences has to be explained.

If this disease had a lower infectivity, comparable to SARS or MERS, the degree of imbalance in these equations wouldn't be so bad. The naive calculation of death rate then might be fairly close to the actual ultimate death rate.

But even for those two diseases, the calculation tends to understate their lethality.

Have I made an error in my analysis here? That tis certainly possible.

My best guesstimate at the actual case fatality rate is that it is likely in the 6-10% range. I have seen calculations that support both ends of that range, and a bit higher. My tendency based on the very similar SARS virus is to go with 10% as an estimate until we know better.

Sam

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1017 on: February 19, 2020, 08:15:45 AM »
I see so many posts in this thread saying China invented this virus as a bioweapon.

But with all this negligence taking place in Japan, i don't see posts that Abe is willfully killing of his own people with the virus on purpose.

Isn't that odd?

Because Japan could really use some fewer older folks. Here the motives are way more blatant. Here the conspiracy theory would actually make some sense, but no one is so stupid to say it. But when it comes to China, all bets are off.

There is a simple answer to why that is: There is no propaganda war going on concerning Japan.

And without the media telling people what to think, people just don't think.

Fucking sheeple use your brain alright.

Blumenkraft,

There is a saying for this, Hanlon's Razor, attributed to Robert J. Hanlon:

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

I would modify that to include foolishness, self interest, accident, bad fortune, and simple ignorance among other things. The meaning remains the same.

The tendency in humans is to start by ascribing blame to "them", "those people" who "did this to us". etc... This is as much as anything an appeal to ones own prejudice, as well as a deflection to avoid personal accountability, responsibility or blame - not just for whatever the issue is, but all sorts of potential life failings that can then be blamed on "them". It is also a way to try to assuage fears, especially fears of ones own mortality by trying to rally the group against some evil other.

After a few decades of seeing this time and time again, I mostly just yawn now. It is very droll, and quite tiring to try to do the hard lifting of digging through the facts to find the truth, all the while the fog of accusation and blame keeps blowing up and shifting focus on precisely who that evil other or group was, and what they precisely did. No amount of demonstrating the improbability of it will ever be sufficient to put the arguments to rest.

Mind you, very real conspiracies get ignored and buried in this same fog. And yes Martha, there are real conspiracies both large and small. That is one of the primary modes that we humans employ everyday of our life to get ahead and to gain advantage over one or many.

But, that doesn't then mean that everything is a conspiracy, or that any particular speculation is correct.

To the degree that we can unravel conspiracies I believe it is a good thing to do so. But to run around ascribing everything to some evil cabal isn't helpful. Speculation alone is not in any way sufficient basis. Neither is the mere possibility that it could happen. Trying to stop that run away bus is a sure way to madness and life in a rubber room.

What is needed is real disagreement of facts to point to an issue, combined with plausible motives, and then credible evidence.

That is lacking here. Yes the Chinese are building a bio research center outside Wuhan. reports are that it has not begun operations. There is no obvious reason why the Chinese would create a vector like this that would or could hit their own population. That is simply silly.

More to the point, the 90 odd genomes that have been analyzed point to a common point of origin about mid December, with about one or two generations of proliferation of the virus before the first known victim turned up on December 31. That is reasonably explained by a small wild population of something being infected and then infecting about 9-12 people around Christmas to January 1st.

The details of the spike proteins shows a perfect correlation with a bat and a Pangolin for one portion of the protein. The second portion shows close similarity with one major addition and change. And that is a known common sequence that allows infection of human cells.

That aligns with the idea that whatever this wild population was, they they were infected with two viruses. Once was of human origin and contained the S2 spike protein segment. The other was the wild type virus - a relative of SARS known to be circulating in bats, pangolins and other creatures.

It is not at all surprising with a lot of wild animals in close proximity that there would be exactly these conditions present. No conspiracy is needed to explain all of the data we know.

The modified segment of the spike protein also isn't particularly unique. Barring some actual smoking gun of someone working somewhere to create this type of virus for some particular reason, there is no reason to suspect that any of these things are true.

And again, that does not mean that such things haven't happened elsewhere with other viruses. They clearly have. But the details suggested malice in those cases. They don't here, at least so far.

Sam

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1018 on: February 19, 2020, 08:55:34 AM »
What is needed is real disagreement of facts to point to an issue, combined with plausible motives, and then credible evidence.

Didn't you get the memo, Sam? We are now living in a post-factual world. Plausibility and evidence are low-order issues. Party affiliation and clicks on social media are the real currency!

That said, i really appreciate your intelligence, logic, and reason in every single post of yours. Just don't make the mistake you would reach normal people that way.
"damn .. one apocalypse getting in the way of another .." - be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1019 on: February 19, 2020, 10:03:20 AM »
Sam, thanks for your detailed discussion of the death rate.
If anything, I would expect the real death rate to go down over time - because the disease is familiar to the healthcare system, people are diagnosed earlier, hospitalization and intensive care are provided earlier, and antiviral treatments are used with some unknown partial effectiveness. Also because the healthcare system in Wuhan was overwhelmed by the virus, this has not happened (YET) in other places.
The only caveat is YET.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1020 on: February 19, 2020, 11:25:27 AM »
And what would the economic impact be for places like the EU and the US ? The last ships from China arrive in european harbours this week. After this week there will be no ships for minimum one month, in most cases longer. Let's say that each ship is 20 000 containers with consumer goods. And 20 000 containers not coming in , is also 20 000 containers not going out. Train cargo is halted, and a big part of air cargo. I think we are going to see some empty shops.

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1021 on: February 19, 2020, 11:33:02 AM »
so after 2 weeks incubation , the Diamond Princess passengers are disgorging into taxis and buses . Who is most at risk of infecting the other .. the passenger or the taxi driver ?  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1022 on: February 19, 2020, 11:44:33 AM »
Sam, thanks for your detailed discussion of the death rate.
If anything, I would expect the real death rate to go down over time - because the disease is familiar to the healthcare system, people are diagnosed earlier, hospitalization and intensive care are provided earlier, and antiviral treatments are used with some unknown partial effectiveness. Also because the healthcare system in Wuhan was overwhelmed by the virus, this has not happened (YET) in other places.
The only caveat is YET.

I very much agree. We would hope that as time passes that the treatments would improve as experience and knowledge improves, and new drugs, vaccines etc... are brought to bear. . The caveat of course is that if the patient load exceeds the systems, physicians, and nurses (& all of the unseen support staff and suppliers) ability to cope, then things can go spiraling downward quite rapidly.

One of the great fears is that China is close to that threshold in several regions.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1023 on: February 19, 2020, 12:24:07 PM »
What is needed is real disagreement of facts to point to an issue, combined with plausible motives, and then credible evidence.

Didn't you get the memo, Sam? We are now living in a post-factual world. Plausibility and evidence are low-order issues. Party affiliation and clicks on social media are the real currency!

That said, i really appreciate your intelligence, logic, and reason in every single post of yours. Just don't make the mistake you would reach normal people that way.

I very much appreciate your kind words. Thank you.

To the first part... well, we’ve been in this post factual world since long before I was born. We had a sweet spot in the middle to late part of the last century where it seemed like we had a real chance for something else. Social media and the 25/8 spin machines, plus the “like” buttons, and rampant hatred and fear make it all too apparent now that we have left that era behind. This is not new however. Mankind has been in this mess since the beginning of history. We are in a particularly low point just now. We have been in low points before now.

This point in the long cycles of civilizations seems to bring out emotion as the primary mode. Emotion isn’t logical. It is emotive. Emotions must be felt and emoted. Logic has little place in that. My world is and has always been deeply involved in logic and reason tempered by emotive connection, though not ruled by it.

You are of course right that trying to use the long form logical analysis (one of my main modes) isn’t amenable to reaching “normal” people. But then, I’ve never been normal. The things I think of as fun would make most “normal” people’s heads explode. The things most “normal” people enjoy baffle me. So there is that.

At the same time, most of these things can be pared down to their essence and be said in ways that “normal” people can accept and use - and without talking down to anyone. Because that isn’t what this is anyway. Translating the incredible simplicity and beauty that hides in complexity is more art than science. And it occurs at many levels.

On one level, I once taught a very gifted young woman calculus on a three hour flight. I don’t mean a little calculus. I mean all of it. That was a gift my teacher gave me that I paid forward. Calculus is beautiful and simple. It is also intricate and complex. But the latter only conceals the former. Revealing that can be amazing, with the right students, when they are interested.

Finding the place where people are to then find the way to convey the information is the key. And before even that comes helping the student (all of us) to know they have the brilliance to excel at anything that interests them. They only need the insights, the tools, and the self confidence to know they can. Next they need to glimpse the beauty and the excitement of discovery. Then you have to expect it, and trust them.

Art does this too. Art does it quite often with words, but equally often with no words at all. And art bridges the divide between logic and reason to emotion and being, and to essence and grace.

The translation to “normal” land often happens better through art than any other way. That can be traditional forms. That can also be through grabbing the imagination and possibility.

We see this more often than we realize. When a director and actors, musicians, singers and dancers transform the abstract ideas described by equations and paragraphs of rhetoric into a scene we see the ideas come to life. They can convey in a glance, or an image, a phrase, or a movement things that take books full of equations and rhetoric to describe.

The difficulty for scientists and engineers often comes in letting go of precision and all of the caveats to allow the simple statements to convey the bulk of the idea in a glance, or in a phrase.

Today we call those memes and sound bites. And most often these serve the more wanton desires and averices. That need not be the case.

In a century now gone many of the great wisdoms were encapsulated in sound bites. We called them things are grandmothers would say. Pound wise, penny foolish. Etc... In today’s language they sound old and clumsy. But they are the same as today’s sound bites in a way. We just need to re-write them. Often - as retorts.

E.g. to the argument that we can’t afford to pay to clean up wastes, and the plaintive cry of a former Under Secretary of Energy: “How clean is clean?” — “Well, I don’t know. Just how filthy is clean?”

Great Statesmen and Stateswomen are the best at that. They see the possibility and the great beauty and distill that into brilliant ideas. And they don’t do it by making things easy. They do it by making people realize they are easy. They ask for and even insist on help and participation. “Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country.”  ”I have a dream.” ...

Sam
« Last Edit: February 19, 2020, 12:30:03 PM by Sam »

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1024 on: February 19, 2020, 12:25:23 PM »
My birthday is March 5.
By then we should have some idea if we will be able to keep this from becoming a catastrophe.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1025 on: February 19, 2020, 02:52:47 PM »
And what would the economic impact be for places like the EU and the US ? The last ships from China arrive in european harbours this week. After this week there will be no ships for minimum one month, in most cases longer. Let's say that each ship is 20 000 containers with consumer goods. And 20 000 containers not coming in , is also 20 000 containers not going out. Train cargo is halted, and a big part of air cargo. I think we are going to see some empty shops.
There are still ships, not just that many. And we need to remember winter high season always peaks at the Chinese New Year so demand was known to be limited in February despite the epidemic. An extensive post-CNY blank sailing program was announced already in December and it has been expanded due to the virus.

But you are right there will be consequences and they will last for some time. I've seen estimates Chinese exports will reach normal levels from mid-March in certain provinces and from April in some others. And when factories are back in business there will be a lot of cargo causing shortage of vessel and aircraft space.

The longer this takes the more difficult it will be to resume BAU. It seems the Chinese are now serious getting people back to work, though
In PIOMAS we trust

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1026 on: February 19, 2020, 03:05:46 PM »
Have I made an error in my analysis here? That tis certainly possible.

You seem to be concentrating on the lag problem.

Early on I think that is a major problem but it isn't the only problem and other issues could become more important while the lag issue may become less of an issue with declining new cases.

It sounds like they are now actively seeking out self treatment cases. This could mean that the proportion of cases known about could increase. Notice that the deaths per actual infection might be fairly constant (or maybe declining a little with medical experience and better treatment). This means the deaths per confirmed infection would appear to decline if the proportion of infections known about is increasing.

Of course the reverse might be the case if more people prefer to self treat fearing overcrowded quarantine areas are petri dishes allowing reinfection possibilities.


Anyway I agree the lag is a large issue. If I try deaths/average confirmed cases 5 to 12 days previously then I get a consistently falling percentage which has got down to 4.5% (from 10% 13 days previous). If i were to add some proportion of the suspected cases then it would fall further. The spike 5 days ago also suggests the confirmed cases were too low for several days and adjusting that would further reduce the apparent death rate. If the lag to adjust for is more than 5 to 12 days then the rate would be higher but is 5 to 12 days really too low? (Using longer lag would see the rate falling even more sharply which becomes hard to explain so seems unlikely.)

Anyway I am struggling to see that a rate as high as 6-10% is appropriate.
I suspect the most serious cases are hospitalized and known about and if the hospitals weren't so stretched more of the cases would be hospitalized and the fatality rate would likely be lower than the 4.5% calculated above.

Of course I may be missing major factors and/or be completely wrong.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1027 on: February 19, 2020, 03:14:12 PM »
Guidelines Issued to Slow Rush On Hospitals Due to Coronavirus
http://www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/articles/13138327

The Japanese Government Ministry of Health is urging people with cold-like symptoms and mild fevers to sit tight at home, don't panic and rush to hospitals, so medical facilities can focus on handling serious cases of coronavirus infection.

and

Singapore's prime minister Lee Hsien Loong has said the new coronavirus is probably already circulating in the population of his country, and warned that if proven, it may require a new strategy by health authorities currently trying to stop it spreading.

"If the virus is widespread it is futile to try to trace every contact, Lee said in a video posted to his Facebook channel. "If we still hospitalize and isolate every suspect case our hospitals will be overwhelmed."


Who said Chinese data could not be trusted ?

I wonder what's happening. Is the pandemia really regressing or do some countries just report cases they can't hide ?

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1028 on: February 19, 2020, 03:22:32 PM »
Quote
Anyway I am struggling to see that a rate as high as 6-10% is appropriate.
I suspect the most serious cases are hospitalized and known about and if the hospitals weren't so stretched more of the cases would be hospitalized and the fatality rate would likely be lower than the 4.5% calculated above.

The level of care plays a large role in severe cases and death rates. But I have to think that environmental reasons local to Wuhan are also impacting this metric. This is a respiratory virus with an affinity to vulnerable lungs. Pollution makes the population of Wuhan more vulnerable to infection and once infected, more vulnerable to severe infection. Combine that with the high infectiveness of the virus and a very dense population and you get a high death rate.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1029 on: February 19, 2020, 03:42:04 PM »
Quote
Anyway I am struggling to see that a rate as high as 6-10% is appropriate.
I suspect the most serious cases are hospitalized and known about and if the hospitals weren't so stretched more of the cases would be hospitalized and the fatality rate would likely be lower than the 4.5% calculated above.

The level of care plays a large role in severe cases and death rates. But I have to think that environmental reasons local to Wuhan are also impacting this metric. This is a respiratory virus with an affinity to vulnerable lungs. Pollution makes the population of Wuhan more vulnerable to infection and once infected, more vulnerable to severe infection. Combine that with the high infectiveness of the virus and a very dense population and you get a high death rate.

Possible: Applying same 4.57% rate to outside mainland China cases 5 to 12 days ago suggest 20 deaths should have occurred but it is only 6. However if well enough to travel internationally, case is likely to be mild and/or more likely in a healthy person and more lag before death seems highly probable. Adding extra 6 days to the lag and the expected cases is down to 10, still higher than 6. However I also expect 4.57% is overestimate of rate for other countries that are not overwhelmed with cases. 3% and extra 6 day lag would put it about the actual number. So it is still too soon for me to be able to tell from these numbers. (Other people may have better methods more able to discern a difference.)

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1030 on: February 19, 2020, 04:41:45 PM »
Confirmed cases outside China are following an exponential trajectory so far. How long to people think that will last?

Could the decrease in officially confirmed case be the result of more and more people deciding to ride this thing out at home? Clearly officials must think that lots of people are now doing this, given the measures put in place to try to smoke them out.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2020, 04:47:45 PM by wili »
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1031 on: February 19, 2020, 04:49:58 PM »
The death rate from the novel coronavirus has risen to 2.67%, based on today’s official figures from China. That’s based on 2,010 deaths worldwide and 75,199 confirmed cases.

The rate was thought to be around 2%. I’m not an expert in infectious diseases but that figure is growing.

I believe that death rate is way overstated and, in the final analysis, we will discover it is much lower. Minor cases in China and elsewhere are simply not being captured in the statistics. My guess is there are hundreds of thousands of Chinese who contracted COVID-19 and they only have mild cold symptoms before recovering fully.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1032 on: February 19, 2020, 05:18:00 PM »
Coronavirus May Be "At the Brink" of a Global Pandemic
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-at-brink-of-global-pandemic-5342192f-a486-41e3-acab-fe541a353e1b.html

The coronavirus outbreak may be "at the brink" of a global pandemic, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, tells Axios.

What's new: Signs people are infecting each other in a more sustainable fashion in China, an uptick in confirmed cases in Japan and Singapore, and research showing people without symptoms may be able to infect each other are fueling concerns that COVID-19 will develop into a pandemic.

... "There are these huge looming issues, on whether this can be contained or not. And, if it's going to spread, are we prepared to respond and mitigate it in our own country and other vulnerable places, particularly Africa?" Stephen Morrison of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told Axios last week.

Tension between economic pressures to re-open the pharmaceutical, auto and aviation factories underpinning global supply chains and markets, and the need to quarantine and control the disease could lead to a "period of stop-go, stop-go" that could worsen the situation, Morrison said.

"There's a cascade of challenges and unknowns."

What to watch: Despite efforts to prepare the American health care system for a pandemic, Morrison said the U.S. is not ready, pointing to the 2017-2018 flu season that killed at least 80,000 Americans as an example of when a sudden increase of cases "really overwhelmed the system."

"We'd be very quickly in trouble" if there was a sudden influx of ill people during a pandemic, Morrison said.

---------------------------------

Experts: Prepare Your Hospitals for COVID-19 Now
https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/sccm/84940

ORLANDO -- U.S. hospitals need to prepare now to deal with a possible influx of COVID-19 coronavirus cases by having a plan in place to identify patients, isolate them, and collect and report case data, infection control specialists said here.

Hospital preparedness was top of mind at a panel discussion on preparing for COVID-19 in the U.S., held Monday afternoon at the Society of Critical Care Medicine annual congress.

... "The situation is rapidly evolving, and there is substantial uncertainty about what this outbreak may eventually look like," ... "But I think we know that in the United States if we experience a significant influx of seriously ill patients, this will, perhaps, put stress and strain on our healthcare delivery system, including emergency departments, inpatient units, and ICUs."

Clinical care specialist Laura E. Evans, MD, of the University of Washington, Seattle, said this means that hospitals need to have a plan in place ahead of time to identify and isolate patients and inform relevant stakeholders about their cases. Having a hierarchy of controls, tight adherence to infection prevention and control polices, and making sure medical personnel are familiar with infection control procedures for using personal protective equipment (PPE) are all key, she noted.

... Ryan C. Maves, MD, of Navel Medical Center in San Diego, added the estimated range of droplet transmission spread for COVID-19 appears to be slightly higher than for influenza, slightly lower than for SARS, and much lower than for measles. But commercial multiplex PCR assays, such as the BioFire respiratory panel, do not detect the novel coronavirus and that care for patients is principally supportive, Maves said.

... Zhiyong Peng, MD, who heads the department of critical care medicine at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, discussed patient characteristics and outcomes at his hospital, which treated 138 cases in January. The single-center report by Peng and colleagues was published Feb. 7 in JAMA. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

As of Feb. 8, 58 of the patients were still hospitalized, 72 had been discharged, and eight had died, Peng noted at the presentation.

--------------------------------

Coronavirus Infection May be Spread by People Without Symptoms, Mounting Evidence Suggests
https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus-transmission-asymptommatic-nejm-german-report-20200218.html

Testing of throat swabs from two people with no symptoms of coronavirus illness revealed that they were nonetheless infected with the virus, according to a report from Germany published Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001899

See also: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg250293.html#msg250293

... The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday said it believes such transmission occurred among several hundred U.S. citizens who were evacuated on Sunday from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, quarantined in a Japanese harbor. Fourteen of the evacuees tested positive for the virus. All the passengers were flown to military bases in Texas and California, where they are quarantined.

-----------------------------------

Japan Says 79 More People Have Tested Positive for Coronavirus on Diamond Princess Cruise Ship
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

Japan confirmed 79 new cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise liner, taking the total number of on-board infections to 621. Japan’s public broadcaster, NHK, citing the health ministry, said 68 of the 79 people with COVID-19 didn’t have any symptoms. Earlier, passengers and crew members on board the quarantined cruise ship, who were not taking government repatriation flights, started the process of disembarking. There may be more positive test results as people need certificates indicating they tested negative for the virus before they can leave.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1033 on: February 19, 2020, 05:31:22 PM »
20 more cases confirmed in South Korea. The virus appears to be circulating there as well.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1034 on: February 19, 2020, 05:37:48 PM »
Iran Reports 2 Deaths from Coronavirus
 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

Two Iranians have died in hospital after testing positive for the new coronavirus in the holy Shi’ite city of Qom, the head of the city’s University of Medical Sciences told Mehr news agency on Wednesday. “Two Iranians, who tested positive earlier today for new coronavirus, died of respiratory illness,” the official told Mehr. Iran’s health ministry spokesman Kianush Jahanpur confirmed their death on Twitter. Iran confirmed earlier in the day its first two cases of the virus, government spokesman Ali Rabiei said, shortly after reports that preliminary tests on the two had come back positive.The health ministry said earlier that the patients had been put in isolation.

-----------------

... since death usually occurs 22 days after initial symptoms, these folks had a lot of time to expose other people
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1035 on: February 19, 2020, 05:42:47 PM »
Quote
I believe that death rate is way overstated and, in the final analysis, we will discover it is much lower. Minor cases in China and elsewhere are simply not being captured in the statistics. My guess is there are hundreds of thousands of Chinese who contracted COVID-19 and they only have mild cold symptoms before recovering fully.
This is a science forum we try to avoid belief and guess instead strive for evidence and objectivity to drive our opinions.
In china they are temperature checking commuters at road blocks, locking down enter regions and expending huge effort to track all contacts with the infection.
You think they are reacting this way over  a cold epidemic ?
Their hospital system has been overwhelmed with intensive care cases. The evidence we have from china strongly suggests this is not just an over hyped case of mass hysteria.... .


vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1036 on: February 19, 2020, 05:45:17 PM »
Drugmakers Expecting Hit from Coronavirus. India is Especially Vulnerable
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/19/business/pharma-drugs-coronavirus/index.html

Drugmakers in India are bracing for potential disruption from the coronavirus. If they're hit, the impact could be felt around the world.

Indian pharmaceutical companies, which produce 20% of the world's drugs supply by volume, are warning that the outbreak threatens to disrupt the supply of raw materials from China.

Almost 70% of the raw materials India uses in drug manufacturing are imported from China, according to brokerage firm SBICAP Securities. Hubei province, where the coronavirus originated, is a major production hub.

"A lot of our pharma value chain is linked to China," Umang Vohra, the CEO of generics producer Cipla, told investors on February 5. "It is linked for the entire pharmaceutical industry."

"If this coronavirus thing continues for more than a month or 45 days, that will begin to create a huge amount of issue for the pharma sector," he added.


... India is the world's biggest exporter of generic drugs, sending huge volumes of medicines to countries including the United States. Kunal Dhamesha, an analyst at SBICAP Securities, said companies that make anti-infective and hormones therapies, such as GSK India, Pfizer (PFE), and Cipla, are most at risk from material shortages.

Aurobindo Pharma, Cadila Healthcare and Sun Pharma are among the firms that say they are monitoring the situation. Kamal Sharma, the vice chairman of Lupin, told investors on February 6 that while his company has enough supplies to ride out the coronavirus issue for months, executives are "not getting visibility on shipment of containers" from China.

Sun Pharmaceutical, which sells mainly to the United States, said its inventory will meet demand in the short term. But it warned that supply chains are complicated, and the original source of material is not always clear.

"Many of the raw materials, which we may be buying in India, may have dependence on the Chinese intermediate," Dilip Shanghvi, the company's managing director, said during an earnings conference call on February 6. "So we think we are buying from India, but there is a China link."

Jens Spahn, the German health minister, warned Thursday that the outbreak could lead to drug shortages in Europe. He called on the European Commission to devise proposals to address the issue.

With a majority of some US medical supplies coming from or originating in China, the coronavirus could have "chilling implications" for supply chains, according to Robert Kadlec, assistant secretary at the US Department of Health and Human Services.

"The distributors and suppliers feel like right now they're okay," ... "How this plays out longer term is still a matter of concern."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1037 on: February 19, 2020, 06:12:02 PM »
I am currently watching Contagion.
Spooky...
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1038 on: February 19, 2020, 07:07:07 PM »
While the linked article indicates that the coronavirus has temporarily reduced China's CO2 emission by a quarter, the article does not point out that the associated anthropogenic aerosol emission are down by even a larger percentage of Chinese emissions; which might be related to the fact that global mean surface temperature anomalies, GMSTA, have been running unusually high in January and February of 2020, during a non-El Nino season.  If so, and if a coronavirus pandemic were to occur then we could see GMSTA temporarily spike in 2020 due to an associated abrupt reduction in global anthropogenic aerosol emissions:

Title: "Analysis: Coronavirus has temporarily reduced China’s CO2 emissions by a quarter"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter

Extract: "All told, the measures to contain coronavirus have resulted in reductions of 15% to 40% in output across key industrial sectors. This is likely to have wiped out a quarter or more of the country’s CO2 emissions over the past two weeks, the period when activity would normally have resumed after the Chinese new-year holiday."

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1039 on: February 19, 2020, 08:29:24 PM »
China’s Q1 Growth Could Be As Low As 3.5%, Says Morgan Stanley
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/coronavirus-live-updates-china-hubei-deaths.html

China’s economic growth in the first quarter could fall to as low as 3.5% if the outbreak is not contained fast enough for manufacturing production to return to normal levels, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note. While factories have started to come online, checks by Morgan Stanley analysts found that production had only reached 30% to 50% of normal levels as of last week.



---------------------------------

Chinese Banks Face Test as Bad Debts Rise While Economic Growth Tumbles
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3051400/coronavirus-chinese-banks-face-test-bad-debts-tipped-rise

... A recent stress test conducted by China’s central bank showed that nine of 30 local banks would fail to meet their capital adequacy ratio if growth slipped to 5.3%, and 17 of them would fail if it slowed to 4.15%

---------------------------------

Lunar New Year Rail Trips in China Nearly Halve
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/coronavirus-live-updates-china-hubei-deaths.html

China’s railway operator said 210 million trips were taken in the 40 days of the Lunar New Year travel period from Jan. 10 to Feb. 18, state news agency Xinhua reported. That number marked a 48% decline from last year.

During roughly the first two weeks of the travel period, through Jan. 24 (Lunar New Year eve), 168 million trips were taken, an increase of 17.2% from the corresponding holiday travel season last year, the report said. For the remainder of the time period, rail trips fell 83.9%, the article said. The report noted the number of average daily trips during the latter period fell to 1.7 million from 11.2 million.

(... it means that almost 90% of the workers have not returne to work)

----------------------------

China Desperate for Migrant Workers to Return as Virus Hits Economy
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3051445/coronavirus-chinas-east-coast-provinces-offer-chartered

Provincial governments in China’s east coast manufacturing hubs have begun arranging buses, trains and flights to bring migrant workers back to factories as the country desperately tries to restart production halted by the coronavirus outbreak.

Mandatory 14-day quarantines for returning workers, in addition to transport restrictions and lockdowns have hampered the flow of migrant workers, exacerbating labour shortages.

Local authorities have been urged by President Xi Jinping to kick-start economic activity after an extended Lunar New Year holiday, but many businesses are finding one key component missing – workers.

At least two thirds of China’s nearly 300 million migrant workers had not returned to their jobs as of last Friday, according to estimates from China’s transport ministry. Passenger traffic has not picked up either, with only 13 million people recorded on China’s roads, railways and aeroplanes on Tuesday, a fifth of the volume from a year earlier.

« Last Edit: February 19, 2020, 08:54:05 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1040 on: February 19, 2020, 09:47:56 PM »
I think this explains why the WHO was not alowed to go to Wuhan.

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1041 on: February 19, 2020, 10:09:07 PM »
The body bags on the street are terrifying if this footage is true. If it's true then all our calculations using the data are fool's errands.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1042 on: February 19, 2020, 10:13:29 PM »
Drugmakers Expecting Hit from Coronavirus. India is Especially Vulnerable
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/19/business/pharma-drugs-coronavirus/index.html
 ...
Jens Spahn, the German health minister, warned Thursday that the outbreak could lead to drug shortages in Europe. He called on the European Commission to devise proposals to address the issue....

I think governments and health systems are underestimating the magnitude of this looming problem.  Millions depend on medications and medical supplies.  Many now healthy may unexpectedly need them soon.  Here's a concerning article from India that hints at what may be in store:

Coronavirus outbreak: Government mulls export ban on 12 essential drugs
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/govt-mulls-export-ban-on-12-essential-drugs/articleshow/74166304.cms
 
"The eight-member expert committee constituted by the government to assess availability of medicines in the country has suggested imposing export restrictions on 12 drugs including antibiotics like chloramphenicol, neomycin, metronidazole, azythromicin, clindamycin; vitamin B1, B2 and B6; as well as hormones like progesterone..."
 ------------------------------

No mention of chloroquine on the list, yet.  China recently announced that three antiviral agents show activity against this coronavirus.  Two are investigational and not generally available outside of China.  Chloroquine is the third.  It's available to be prescribed worldwide, but not used much outside of malaria-stricken regions.  Whichever nations currently produce the world's supply may well ban exports until stockpiles for the home population are sufficient. 
 
Whichever medications are further discovered to be effective antivirals, distributing supplies of any of them around the world could be delayed for many weeks.

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1043 on: February 19, 2020, 10:27:46 PM »
The body bags on the street are terrifying if this footage is true. If it's true then all our calculations using the data are fool's errands.

If you look at that cruise ship in Japan. 600 people are infected out of 3600. Are the people in Wuhan living in a much different situation as the people on that ship ? And Wuhan has a population of 11 million people.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1044 on: February 19, 2020, 10:42:49 PM »
More on Iran ...

Coronavirus has killed two elderly Iranian citizens, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported Wednesday.

IRNA quoted Alireza Vahabzadeh, an adviser to the country’s health minister, as saying that both victims had been carrying the coronavirus and were located in Qom, about 140km (86 miles) south of the capital Tehran.

The state news agency said later that schools and universities in Qom would be closed so an investigation could take place. No additional details were released.

ISNA quoted an official in the country’s health ministry, Kiyanoush Jahanpour, as saying that “since last two days, some suspected cases of the new coronavirus were found”.

Meanwhile, during a visit earlier on Wednesday to Qom to assess the situation, Qasem Jan-Babaei, Iran's deputy health minister, told  local news agencies that the ministry had set up emergency units for the treatment of contagious diseases in the holy city.

"We urge people to avoid shaking hands and kissing, to observe personal hygiene and preferably avoid crowded places," said Babaei, adding that there was no reason to panic

"There have been no reports of coronavirus in other cities so far, but there is a possibility that cases may also arise in other cities."

Ali Gholizadeh, an Iranian public health policy researcher at the University of Science and Technology of China, said Iran's health ministry was prepared to manage the virus, but added that the victims' relatives should be quarantined "until we are sure they are not infected".

"People in Iran should not panic," he stressed, citing the virus's extremely low mortality rate.

BBC Persian understands that 25 people are being quarantined in the same hospital on suspicion that they might have Covid-19.

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2020/02/die-coronavirus-iran-fatalities-middle-east-200219171007605.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1045 on: February 19, 2020, 10:44:20 PM »
Goldman Says Market Underestimating Coronavirus Risk: 'Correction is Looking Much More Probable'
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/19/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

Goldman Sachs sounded the alarm to clients about a possible correction in the stock market, noting investors are underestimating how big of a risk the coronavirus really is.

"We believe the greater risk is that the impact of the coronavirus on earnings may well be underestimated in current stock prices, suggesting that the risks of a correction are high," strategist Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a note.

Oppenheimer thinks the market could be in trouble if earnings expectations aren't ratcheted down.

"Equity markets are looking increasingly exposed to near-term downward surprises to earnings growth," said Oppenheimer. "While a sustained bear market does not look likely, a near-term correction is looking much more probable."

Investor confidence is misplaced as market hits new highs

Investors' confidence around the coronavirus may end up being misplaced, the former head of the International Monetary Fund's China division told CNBC.

------------------------------

Nissan Faces Global Parts Shortage Due to Coronavirus, Report Says
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/nissan-faces-global-parts-shortage-due-coronavirus-report-says



Nissan is bracing for potential disruptions in plants in Europe and the U.S. because the coronavirus epidemic in China is leading to a parts shortage and wreaking havoc across the supply chain, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg

The Japanese carmaker procures more than 800 parts from factories in the outbreak epicenter of Hubei to make cars worldwide and is concerned that most of those components — ranging from brake hoses to air conditioning controllers — will run out if plants in the province stay idled beyond Feb. 21, when the government has signaled that production could resume for most companies, according to one of the people, who asked not to be identified discussing a private matter.

The shortage could lead to some Nissan car output in Japan to be suspended as soon as Feb. 23, followed by Malaysia soon after, the person said. Further delays could mean plants in the U.S., Mexico, the UK, Spain, Russia and India and Mexico also have to stop production, the person said.

Cars comprise about 30,000 parts — roughly 100 times what goes into a phone — making automakers and their supply chains particularly vulnerable to cataclysmic events such as the coronavirus outbreak and the 2011 earthquake in Japan.

Meanwhile, Hubei continues to be locked down, particularly in Wuhan, where the virus was first detected. The municipal government announced Feb. 13 that all factories in Hubei would be shut until at least Feb. 20. The province is home to Nissan’s Chinese partner, Dongfeng Motor, making the Japanese carmaker more vulnerable to the disruptions than most others.

(... 2-3 days - just sayin')
« Last Edit: February 19, 2020, 11:22:39 PM by vox_mundi »
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1046 on: Today at 02:45:08 AM »
Quote
Are the people in Wuhan living in a much different situation as the people on that ship?

I wish I knew.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1047 on: Today at 03:06:55 AM »
sources seem to be reporting just 404 or 395 confirmed new cases down from around 1778 or 1751. (349 in Hubei so main region appears to have reported.)

Too good to be true?

SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1048 on: Today at 03:15:23 AM »
A perceptive analogy from the Peak Oil Forum:
Quote
by EnergyUnlimited » Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:25 am

This epidemic resembles a kind of cancer which is affecting whole society, in our particular case it is China.
...
Their only hope is a timely vaccine but should they fail to develop and mass produce it by autumn (it won't by ready before August for sure and rather unlikely up to end of this year), they are done. ...

It's very poor analogy.  Lay people are just as familiar with what "epidemic" means as with how cancer is treated.  The analogy does nothing to inform or illuminate.

Like many postings from that site, it's from a poorly educated writer.  Seemingly, he's not aware that antiviral treatments exist.  He's certainly not aware that at least 3 effective antiviral treatments are known for this virus.  I'd not recommend reading that site, and I'd certainly not recommend reposting such content here.  It also includes an anti-Japanese ethnic slur.  This is just not acceptable.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1049 on: Today at 03:29:02 AM »
A perceptive analogy from the Peak Oil Forum:
Quote
by EnergyUnlimited » Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:25 am

This epidemic resembles a kind of cancer which is affecting whole society, in our particular case it is China.
...
Their only hope is a timely vaccine but should they fail to develop and mass produce it by autumn (it won't by ready before August for sure and rather unlikely up to end of this year), they are done. ...

It's very poor analogy.  Lay people are just as familiar with what "epidemic" means as with how cancer is treated.  The analogy does nothing to inform or illuminate.

Like many postings from that site, it's from a poorly educated writer.  Seemingly, he's not aware that antiviral treatments exist.  He's certainly not aware that at least 3 effective antiviral treatments are known for this virus.  I'd not recommend reading that site, and I'd certainly not recommend reposting such content here.  It also includes an anti-Japanese ethnic slur.  This is just not acceptable.

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