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Lurk

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1250 on: August 13, 2018, 04:43:18 AM »
Gene drive propagates modified DNA throughout an organism without have to wait for the trait to be transmitted through sexual reproduction. The modified trait is also inheritable to all descendants of the parent.

https://www.cbinsights.com/research/industries-transformed-brain-hacking-tech/
https://www.livescience.com/59326-companies-investing-in-brain-hacking-tech.html

Tis a brave new world n'est pa?

Edit: sorry this is OT here, so i won't be adding to anything further
« Last Edit: August 13, 2018, 03:42:11 PM by Lurk »
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El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1251 on: August 13, 2018, 08:05:48 AM »

 I haven't ever seen an assessment of how organic fertilizers can supplant the current system and doing so with the increased costs of repowering our tractors and transport system demands some magical thinking. Compost and compost feedstocks are bulky and require lots of fossil fueled equipment to produce at scale. 

Please see youtube videos of Gabe Brown,David Brandt (large scale) or possibly (for smaller scale, very intensive) Paul Kaiser of singing frog farms.

They are doing a wonderful job of producing huge amounts of food (bigger yields than local averages) without chemical fertilzers and much less use of gasoline than usual and in the meantime regenerating the soil/sequestering carbon.

It can be done on large scale (Gabe Brown has 5000 acres of land - that is pretty large scale, and has increased soil organic carbon by 2-3% in his soils - a huge amount!). Much food can be grown without exploiting the soil AND sequestering carbon in the meantime.

We do have the recipe how to do that but we do not have the willingness to go down this path unfortunately. I am not a Polyanna, and yes, going the way we are going, there could be food shortages in the future, but let's not forget that we know how to avoid this ruinous path we are going down....

gerontocrat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1252 on: August 14, 2018, 08:57:18 PM »
Article in the Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/aug/14/extreme-temperatures-especially-likely-for-next-four-years
and..
Full paper in Nature Communications. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05442-8

Extreme temperatures 'especially likely for next four years'
Cyclical natural phenomena that affect planet’s climate will amplify effect of manmade global warming, scientists warn


Quote
Jonathan Watts

Tue 14 Aug 2018 16.00 BST Last modified on Tue 14 Aug 2018 18.50 BST

The world is likely to see more extreme temperatures in the coming four years as natural warming reinforces manmade climate change, according to a new global forecasting system.

Following a summer of heatwaves and forest fires in the northern hemisphere, the study in the journal Nature Communications suggests there will be little respite for the planet until at least 2022, and possibly not even then.

“Everything seems to be adding up,” said the author of the paper, Florian Sévellec of the French National Centre for Scientific Research. “There is a high possibility that we will be at the peak of a warm phase for the next couple of years.”

The scientist built his forecasting system by statistical “hind-casting”. This crunches the data from previous climate models to measure which combination was most effective in predicting past temperature trends.

Based on this analysis, Sévellec says the statistical upward nudge from natural variation this year is twice as great of that of long-term global warming. Next year, it is likely to be three times higher.

He cautions that this should not be seen as a prediction that Europe will definitely have more heatwaves, the US more forest fires, South Africa more drought or the Arctic more ice melt. The likelihood of these events will increase, but his model is on a broad global scale. It does not predict which part of the world will experience warming or in which season.

But his data clearly suggests that water in the oceans will warm faster than air above land, which could raise the risks of floods, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1253 on: August 15, 2018, 03:14:40 PM »
Severe weather taking its toll on crops large and small.

Phil Plait on Twitter: "DAGNABBIT. The one Granny Smith apples we had. It got hellacious bruised, too.”
https://twitter.com/badastronomer/status/1029523282406588416
Image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1254 on: August 15, 2018, 08:47:54 PM »
"Bird species collapse in the Mojave, Driven by Climate Change"

https://www.kqed.org/science/1929188/bird-species-collapse-in-the-mojave-driven-by-climate-change

"The longer-term solution has to involve managing groundwater, Beissinger says, because when aquifers are overdraw, it's the desert that dries out first."

AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1255 on: August 15, 2018, 10:07:42 PM »
Marine heatwaves will become more frequent & extreme with continued global warming:

Thomas L. Frölicher, Erich M. Fischer & Nicolas Gruber (2018), "Marine heatwaves under global warming", Nature, volume 560, pages360–364, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0383-9

Abstract: "Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months and can extend up to thousands of kilometres. Some of the recently observed marine heatwaves revealed the high vulnerability of marine ecosystems and fisheries to such extreme climate events. Yet our knowledge about past occurrences and the future progression of MHWs is very limited. Here we use satellite observations and a suite of Earth system model simulations to show that MHWs have already become longer-lasting and more frequent, extensive and intense in the past few decades, and that this trend will accelerate under further global warming. Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, current national policies for the reduction of global carbon emissions are predicted to result in global warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century, for which models project an average increase in the probability of MHWs by a factor of 41. At this level of warming, MHWs have an average spatial extent that is 21 times bigger than in preindustrial times, last on average 112 days and reach maximum sea surface temperature anomaly intensities of 2.5 degrees Celsius. The largest changes are projected to occur in the western tropical Pacific and Arctic oceans. Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes."
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queenie

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1256 on: August 16, 2018, 06:11:22 AM »
"Bird species collapse in the Mojave, Driven by Climate Change"

I suspect that if insect populations are dramatically declining then, of course, the birds will follow. I can only speak to my own experience on my farm and homestead. Places where we do try to pay attention to such things. We have cherry trees, one ancient 40 ft tall one sits beside the house. It begins to fill with birds before the fruit is even fully ripe. They'd wake us up in the mornings, there were so many, they were so loud. By the time the cherries are truly ripe they have usually stripped the tree bare and the ground is littered with pits. Today, more than a month after they were ripe, the tree is still full of drying cherries. For the very first time, the birds didn't come. Not the cedar waxwings, or the jays, or the robins - not even the stupid starlings. Every day I look out at that tree, and it's weight of rotten fruit, where the late season drunken bird party used to happen and think "this is not good, this is not good at all."

I also wonder how much tracking of bird populations is really happening out there. I know there are Christmas bird counts but really, when the populations nose dive, how long will it take us to figure it out?

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1257 on: August 16, 2018, 08:26:45 AM »
"Bird species collapse in the Mojave, Driven by Climate Change"
 For the very first time, the birds didn't come.... Every day I look out at that tree, and it's weight of rotten fruit, where the late season drunken bird party used to happen and think "this is not good, this is not good at all."

I also wonder how much tracking of bird populations is really happening out there. I know there are Christmas bird counts but really, when the populations nose dive, how long will it take us to figure it out?

That is very spooky, and I agree, not good at all. One possible explanation might be the timing of the fruiting or of the bird migration- if, due to climate change the timing of one or both has changed, they may no longer coincide- which is not at all to say that this is a good thing. Christmas Bird counts, Breeding bird Surveys and other international efforts are definitely showing declines, catastrophic for some species. We have already seen some birds nosedive. Previously common birds such as Rusty Blackbirds are almost gone.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1258 on: August 16, 2018, 07:42:39 PM »
How we both manage to feed our human population and sustain the ecological processes upon which we all ultimately depend is arguably as important a question as how we adapt to and mitigate climate change.
Harvey Locke and E.O. Wilson (notably)https://natureneedshalf.org/ have been advocating setting aside half of the planet's land surface for nature, and ensuring that this land is connected, rather than islanded, wherever possible.
But what effect will this have on food production?
We shall never be able to set aside half of nature if it means condemning people to death from starvation.
How shall we designate the half? Should we do it by ecoregion? By nation? Globally?
The following paper takes a shot at the answers and implications, and suggests that no matter how we cut it, there will be places that will lose considerable food production if half the surface of the world's terrestrial ecoregions are protected. This makes an argument that developed countries with large undeveloped areas such as Canada should protect considerably more than 50% of its landscape (currently Canada protects about 10%).
The article is behind a paywall, but I think this URL leads to an open access copy....
https://sci-hub.tw/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0119-8

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1259 on: August 16, 2018, 10:19:33 PM »
H
Harvey Locke and E.O. Wilson (notably)https://natureneedshalf.org/ have been advocating setting aside half of the planet's land surface for nature, and ensuring that this land is connected, rather than islanded, wherever possible.

I came to pretty much the same conclusion by myself long ago. The solution is: less people. If we have just 1-2 bln people we can take the best spots for us (and for agriculture) and leave the rest for untamed nature. And looking at the trend in total fertility ratios we will get there in a couple of hundred years - problem solved. The only question is what to do in the meantime? :)

The real problem is Africa: population will boom from 1 bln (1990s) to 4 (!) bln by 2100. How can they feed themselves???? The other continents are OK in my view (at least foodwise)

bluesky

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1260 on: August 17, 2018, 11:18:05 PM »
How we both manage to feed our human population and sustain the ecological processes upon which we all ultimately depend is arguably as important a question as how we adapt to and mitigate climate change.
Harvey Locke and E.O. Wilson (notably)https://natureneedshalf.org/ have been advocating setting aside half of the planet's land surface for nature, and ensuring that this land is connected, rather than islanded, wherever possible.
But what effect will this have on food production?
We shall never be able to set aside half of nature if it means condemning people to death from starvation.

Any idea what would be the impact of moving all agriculture to organic (would substantially increase the soil carbon uptake) while moving our meat and diary production to area that cannot sustain crop (with only natural local grass/ hay feeding), reducing world consumption of meat and diary product to the strict minimum, improving the 25% depleted agricultural soil to normal standard thus further increasing carbon soil intake… while reducing substantially our food waste (producing and consuming locally could probably reduce the food waste)
. Would there be enough land left for the 50%?
I remember there are a few research paper talking about balancing global organic farming with meat and diary product consumption reduction, can't find them though, and I am not sure to which extent they include food logistic management/ reduction of food waste, although they should.

However, all theoretical, as before we manage to get a (somewhat far fetched) world agreement on that, we will have to dismantle Bayer/Monsanto Syngenta and other mega powerful pesticides/insecticides provider, get a world agreement on organic farming, and considerably change social behaviour, and agricultural practice…

this one, but there should be more recent papers, and it is quite generic:
http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/organicag/pdf/11_12_5_OA_CC_Scialabba_Muller-Lindenlauf.pdf

this one more recent but through paywall
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-resource-100517-023252

about global dietary guidelines, requiring a major shift:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378017307513?via=ihub&utm_source=TrendMD&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Global_Environmental_Change_TrendMD_1



« Last Edit: August 18, 2018, 08:18:33 AM by bluesky »

sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1261 on: August 18, 2018, 07:07:04 AM »
" reducing world consumption of meat and diary product to the strict minimum"

This. This is a huge win. The fraction of crop harvest going into animals dwarfs human consumption.

This alone would cut agriculture by two thirds.

sidd
 

bluesky

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1262 on: August 18, 2018, 08:20:58 AM »
" reducing world consumption of meat and diary product to the strict minimum"

This. This is a huge win. The fraction of crop harvest going into animals dwarfs human consumption.

This alone would cut agriculture by two thirds.

sidd

Thank you Sidd for the swift answer, do you have a research paper in mind so that I could dig the subject a bit?

sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1263 on: August 18, 2018, 11:02:49 AM »
Perhaps 2/3 was too large a number. 1/3 is better. Still a huge win.

"Just 55 percent of the world's crop calories are actually eaten directly by people. Another 36 percent is used for animal feed. "

"... in the United States, where just 27 percent of crop calories are consumed directly ... "

" ... It takes about 100 calories of grain to produce just 12 calories of chicken or 3 calories worth of beef ..."


http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034015/pdf/1748-9326_8_3_034015.pdf
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/feeding-9-billion/
https://www.vox.com/2014/8/21/6053187/cropland-map-food-fuel-animal-feed

sidd

TerryM

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1264 on: August 19, 2018, 06:30:37 AM »
sidd
I once talked to a farmer on California who claimed he was raising free range chickens in his apple orchard, He claimed that the insects and fallen fruit and greenery was all that was needed to keep his chicks well fed until he harvested them.
Is such a thing possible?
Terry

sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1265 on: August 19, 2018, 06:56:22 AM »
CA ? no winter ? Mebbe. 

Ask Mr. Steele, he be from around there ?

sidd

TerryM

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1266 on: August 19, 2018, 07:16:12 AM »
Not much snow, if any.
He lived on the outskirts of Hollister, sight of a famous Biker confrontation in the late 40's - the one that Brando's "Wild Ones" was based on.


If chickens can survive - and keep pests out of orchards even for 3 seasons - it might provide a nice symbiotic relationship, although Bruce has posted about the difficulty of raising crops and animals together, at least in California.


Terry

bluesky

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1267 on: August 19, 2018, 12:03:08 PM »
Sidd
A big thank you for the link

I came upon this one regardding scenario with organic agriculture worldwide, perfecly fitting with vegetarian diet

in Nature (communication) 2016,(maybe it's already been discussed somewhere in the forum but could not find where)

"Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation"
Karl-Heinz Erb et al
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms11382

"We assessed the feasibility of 500 scenarios. ‘Feasibility’ was defined as a situation in which global food demand is matched by cropland supply, and livestock grazing intensity stays within ecological thresholds. Trade is assumed to balance deficits of regional production and consumption for all feasible scenarios, assuming no trade barriers exist. The option space is defined as the sum of all feasible scenarios.
Our analysis reveals that a large range of options exist to feed a no-deforestation world. Nearly two-thirds of the 500 calculated scenarios are classified as ‘feasible’ or ‘probably feasible,’ even with low cropland-yield levels or RICH diets, but not when these two are combined. Cropland constraints and grazing constraints are approximately equally frequent. Biomass harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity vary broadly within the option space, largely depending on diets. Grazing constraints strongly limit the option space in a world with moderate to high cropland expansion. Within the option space, trade volumes will rise if a more regionally equal per capita diet is adopted and no encroachment of farming into natural or semi-natural land is assumed."

"The feasible and probably feasible scenarios vary strongly with regard to cropland demand, crop yields, grazing intensity and biomass harvest. The results for these parameters for all feasible scenarios are displayed in Fig. 4 in a breakdown into human diets (for other aggregations, see Supplementary Figs 3–6). Cropland demand shows a huge variation across all feasible scenarios (Fig. 4a). Whereas the VEGAN diets require less cropland than in the year 2000, the BAU and MEAT diets reach a cropland demand up to 23.5 Mkm2, 52% above the current levels. In contrast, the maximum cropland demand of the RICH diet is similar to the maximum of the BAU diets. However, here, the number of feasible scenarios is considerably reduced by grazing constraints. RICH diets are feasible only with considerable cropland expansion and high cropland yields (Fig. 4b), whereas the other diet variants are also feasible with low or moderate levels. Crop yields do not vary strongly between diet variants (factor 1.5 between lowest and highest"

Discussion
"Nearly two-thirds of all scenarios appear feasible or probably feasible in a world that—hypothetically—refrains from clearing any further forests for agricultural purposes. This result indicates that deforestation is not a precondition for supplying the world with sufficient food in terms of quantity and quality in 2050 and that many options exist based on different strategies. Our analysis reveals that even a global adoption of diets currently prevailing in the Western world would be feasible without deforestation if cropland yields rose massively and cropland expanded strongly into areas that are today used for grazing. Furthermore, high yields17 are no biophysical necessity; the world population can be fed healthily even with low cropland yields and little cropland expansion when diets with a reduced fraction of livestock products are adopted"

"According to our analysis, human diets are the strongest determinant of the biophysical option space, stronger than yields or cropland availability. Unsurprisingly, vegan diets and diets with a low share of livestock products (for example, the VEGETARIAN variant) show the largest number of feasible scenarios, in line with other studies19,33,40, representing pathways that also make it possible to avoid the otherwise virulent grazing constraints and significantly reduce the option space. Other factors, such as high yields or intensive livestock systems, do not show such a strong effect on the number of feasible scenarios and do not necessarily reduce cropland demand or grazing intensity because the land-sparing effect can be annihilated by rich diets (Figs 3 and 4 and Supplementary Figs 3–6). These findings underpin the insight of other studies that stress the importance of demand-side measures for sustainability26,27,33,41. A vegan or vegetarian diet is associated with only half the cropland demand, grazing intensity and overall biomass harvest of comparable meat-based human diets. Furthermore, a decreasing share of livestock products in human diets could also be associated with health benefits, particularly in the industrialized regions"

"However, it is important to note that livestock provides many services other than food, for example, draught power, nutrient management and risk avoidance. For instance, livestock enables the use of land that cannot be used for cropping due to harsh environmental conditions and thus helps broaden society’s resource base33,34,43. This effect becomes visible in our analysis in scenarios that combine low yields with little cropland expansion. In such contexts, diets relatively high in ruminant products show advantages over the monogastric-based variants. With increased cropland production, however, this advantage of ruminant livestock is lost"

below legend:
a) Total number of unfeasible scenarios, broken down into (b) human diets (note that no constraints relate to the VEGAN variant), (c) mix of livestock products in human diets, (d) cropland expansion, (e) cropland yields and (f) composition of feedstuff. Y axis: number of unfeasible scenarios. For abbreviations, see the text and the caption of the research paper









bluesky

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1268 on: August 19, 2018, 12:44:53 PM »
Also of interest:

Even if organic or more sustainable farming would make sense (in my non expert / neophyte point of view) in relation to biodiversity, carbon intake, use of more resistant food species from a wider basket of varieties than high yield / green revolution/ soil destructive farming and less nutritious, some choice are not always obvious. Organic farming, growing producing and consuming local is good for carbon footprint, although in a world with higher frequency of extreme event food buffer could come from other food producing areas. Also the following papers point to extreme difficulties to get a world consensus in this matter due to some vesting interest (and  they don't really stress the vesting interest)


so the following debate is still interesting :
"Biotechnology or organic? Extensive or intensive? Global or local? A critical
review of potential pathways to resolve the global food crisis" Fraser et al. 2015

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hannah_Wittman/publication/284798656_Biotechnology_or_organic_Extensive_or_intensive_Global_or_local_A_critical_review_of_potential_pathways_to_resolve_the_global_food_crisis/links/59f76be40f7e9b553ebee2ff/Biotechnology-or-organic-Extensive-or-intensive-Global-or-local-A-critical-review-of-potential-pathways-to-resolve-the-global-food-crisis.pdf

"While experts agree that poverty, population, energy prices, climate change, and socio-political dynamics undermine global food security, there is no agreement on effective strategies to meet this challenge. For example, some promote “high tech” solutions (e.g. biotechnology) designed to boost yield while others prefer local food systems. To better understand these debates, this article explores four perspectives from the literature: (1) technology to increase food production; (2) equitable food distribution; (3) policies to reduce pollution and waste; and (4) community action to promote sovereign food systems. The paper concludes with recommendations on how food scientists can navigate these controversies to help research and policy making."



"Our reading of the literature suggests that there are at least four
key pathways presented by scholars to solve “the global food crisis”.
These are:
1. Technology for Production. Arguments made under this theme
stress the role of technological innovation to increase total
production. Strategies proposed include using plant breeding
and GM techniques to create disease or drought resistant varieties
of plants, and bio-fortifying food crops.
2. Equity and Distribution. Arguments made in this theme stress
the need for more equitable food distribution. Proposed strategies
include poverty reduction, reducing global meat consumption,
reducing the amount of grain used for bio-energy
production, as well as changes to social welfare and trade
regimes.
3. Local Food Sovereignty. Arguments made in this theme stress
the need for communities to come together and promote more
local and sovereign food systems. In wealthier countries these
ideas are normally associated with “local food movements”
while in the Global South e but increasingly in North America
and Europe as well e these ideas are clustered around the
notion of “food sovereignty”.
4. Market Failures, Policy and Regulation. This theme stresses the
need for policies and regulations to correct for perverse incentives
that undermine the sustainability and security of our
food systems. In particular, market failures and inappropriate
subsidies result in pollution, waste, and excessive input, as well
as leading to a proliferation of foods with large amounts of highfructose
corn syrup. Strategies proposed to correct market failures
include incentives to reduce food waste, reducing distorting
subsidies, and paying farmers for providing environmental
benefits like carbon sequestration."

"We would like to conclude this viewpoint article by picking up
on three key points.
 First, in our observation, each of the four pathways described
above has a particular set of stakeholders behind it that represent
different constituents, each of which has different expectations
and demands. In the past, because proponents of each
paradigm came from different positions, debates about the most
appropriate solutions to food security have resulted in acrimony
and, in many cases, a policy stalemate (see below).
 Second, it is our view that no single solution will work in every
instance and so food security experts need to be looking to
develop a “blended portfolio” of strategies rather than maintaining
their allegiance to only one type of strategy.
 Finally, developing inclusive and participatory decision making
processes to decide on specific policies, technologies or management
practices may be more important than focussing
narrowly on any specific tool (such as biotechnology or local
food systems).
With regard to the first of these three points, it is clear from the
literature that debates between proponents of the four pathways
identified above have, in the past, resulted in what can only be
described as a “policy stalemate”. For instance, the introduction of
this paper alluded to acrimonious debates between environmental
activists and food scientists working onGMcrops. Perhaps the most
extreme example of how arguments over food security can derail
policy-making occurred during the writing of the global report for
The International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and
Technology for Development (IAASTD). IAASTD was convened by the
United Nations following the Johannesburg Summit on Sustainable
Development in 2002. It was designed to act in a similar capacity as
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in that it
was to establish a multi-stakeholder group of experts who would
assess and review the state of scientific knowledge pertaining to
agriculture and food security. According to Edwards (2012) despite
the fact that IAASTD was launched with high-level political support
and an impressive array of scientific contributors, “almost everything
that could go wrong did” (p. 70). Edwards describes the
situation:
Civil society representatives clashed with agronomists over the
value of physical science vs. traditional knowledge. Business
delegates clashed with civil society representatives over the
merits of large-scale agribusiness vs. small-scale village farming
systems. State delegates and civil society representatives
clashed over who could legitimately speak for peasant farmers:
their governments or international NGOs working directly with
farmers. (p. 75)
In the end, the only real point of agreement was to terminate
IAASTD after the first synthesis report was published. But even this
report was rejected by the governments of Canada, the US, and Australia."



bluesky

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1269 on: August 19, 2018, 12:48:10 PM »
interesting Phd thesis on

"The implications of achieving healthy and environmentally sustainable diets for future land use in the United Kingdom" H de Ruiter August 2017

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323613164

The paper shows that the UK has increased the use of "export land" for agriculture and that CHGE including additional export land increase mainly due to higher share of overseas land uses to feed the UK population, particularly from increase in South America, of which Argentina and Brazil, the paper does not specify whether this increase from Brazil comes from deforestation which would be a further aggravating factor as on top of increase GHGE it would have reduced the carbon sink.
Just wonder whether this is included in UK global GHG emission?!

"2.4.2. Net displacement of land Figure 2-3 shows that the net imported cropland footprint (i.e. domestic cropland plus cropland abroad minus cropland used for exports, or consumption perspective minus production perspective in Figure 2-3) has increased substantially from 1987 to 2008. In 1987, the UK imported a net cropland area of 3,475 kha and this increased to 6,468 kha in 2008. Total  domestic agricultural cropland area decreased (-216 kha) and the share of domestic cropland used for exports also decreased from 29% in 1987 to 19% in 2008. The main exports-receiving region was the EU15+ in both 1987 and 2008, receiving about 12% of all exported cropland in 1987 and about 11% in 2008. The UK was a net exporter of cropland to the Former Soviet Union and Northern Africa & Western Asia in 1987; however in 2008 the UK was a net importer of cropland from all regions.  "

"2.4.3. GHGE associated with UK crop supply Total GHGE, excluding emissions from LUC (Land Use Change), remained relatively constant over the studied period. This, however, masks an underlying trend where the share of synthetic fertiliser in the GHGE declined from 76% to 68%, while the share of rice increased from 10% to 15%. The decline in GHGE from fertiliser application was mainly caused by decreasing fertiliser application rates in the two regions responsible for the largest production of the UK crop supply (UK and EU15+). "When GHGE from LUC are included, a clear increase in total GHGE is observed, from 19.1 Mt CO2e in 1987 to 21.9 Mt CO2e in 2008, primarily because of a larger cropland footprint. LUC emissions represent the largest contributor to total GHGE, with a share of 64% in 2008, with fertiliser application contributing a further 24%, manure application 6% and rice cultivation 5%. As a consequence, GHGE are increasingly located abroad. While in 1987 about 50% of the emissions were emitted overseas, this had increased to 62% in 2008 (Figure 2-1), with most emitted in South America (18%), and the EU (15%).

 
2.4.4. Contribution of different crops to GHGE GHGE of most crop categories increased over time, mostly as a consequence of the larger area associated with each crop (Table 2-2). GHGE of roots & tubers and sugar crops decreased over time, as a result of a smaller cropland area and lower fertiliser use. GHGE associated with cereals remained constant, despite a larger cropland area associated with cereals, which can be explained by a lower fertiliser use in the UK and EU15+, the main regions supplying cereals. Wheat was the largest source associated with UK food and feed supply and was responsible for 25% of all emissions (not shown). Soybeans, barley and rapeseed were the other major sources of total GHGE. Wheat was the major source of GHGE overseas, representing 18% of all GHGE abroad, followed by soybeans (17%) and cocoa beans (7%). "


The soybean impact from overseas could well come from Brazil and deforestation...

"3.4.4.  Calorie and protein supply to the UK While grasslands were responsible for 63% of the total land footprint in 2010, they only produced 14% of all calories for human consumption, and 22% of total protein (Figure 3-6). Croplands used for feed represented 22% of the total land footprint and produced about 3.6 Mt of protein in feed, but only 22% of the protein ended up as animal product for human consumption (0.8 Mt of protein), which equals 26% of total protein supply. Therefore, livestock products are responsible for 85% of the total land footprint but produce only 48% of total protein for human consumption. Cereals are most efficient for producing protein for human consumption; while cereals represent 6% of the total land footprint, they produce about 33% of the protein for human consumption. "



interesting discussion on how to achieve sustainable diet:

"It has been argued that the current literature on sustainable diets is primarily focused on the environmental impact of food consumption, and that social values and cultural identities related to food consumption are underrepresented. This is significant because social and cultural values are very important for the acceptability of dietary change (Macdiarmid et al. 2016). Social and cultural identity are key components of why people eat what they eat, and it will be difficult to implement dietary changes if they are not aligned with the prevailing social values (de Boer et al. 2017). For instance, meat consumption has been associated with “masculinity” and this might hamper efforts to reduce meat in the diet (Schösler et al. 2015, Kildal and Syse 2017). Furthermore, because there seems to be a relatively low awareness of the link between meat consumption and environmental impact, people often do not realise the environmental consequences of their food consumption (de Boer et al. 2016, Macdiarmid et al. 2016). People are more likely to buy local food to reduce the environmental impact of their food than they are willing to reduce meat consumption, while the environmental effects might be opposite (de
Boer et al. 2016). Different segments of the population have different consumption patterns, and there is no such thing as “the” meat-eater (Dagevos and Voordouw 2013). This suggests the fact that consumer messages need to be tailor-made, and generic population-level advice may not be the best option (de Boer et al. 2014). 
The most important question consequently is how do we achieve sustainable diets in practice? It has, for instance, been argued that not sufficient attention has been given to the politics of such a shift (Goodman et al. 2012). Mason & Lang (2017) identify eight broad policy positions on sustainable diets, ranging from questioning whether the issue of unsustainable diets should be tackled at all to creating new dietary guidelines that integrate nutrition and sustainability (p. 268) (Mason & Lang, 2017). Using the latter position would strengthen other intergovernmental frameworks, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals, as well (p. 330) (Mason & Lang, 2017). There are several countries that have included sustainability considerations in their dietary guidelines, such as The Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Brazil and others, but countries differ in how active governments engage with these guidelines. While some studies suggests that the effect of dietary guidelines is limited, Mason & Lang (2017) argue that it is sensible to have some formal, institutionally-backed guidelines to drive systems change.
Another approach to change towards more sustainable diets is to internalise the “social costs” of consumption by taxing food items with high associated emissions (Wirsenius et al. 2011, Ripple et al. 2014, Säll and Gren 2015). Evidence for taxes on unhealthy food items shows that taxes are generally able to bring about a desired reduction in consumption, but the tax should be large enough and careful attention should be given to the potential effects on other nutrients (Mytton et al. 2012). Taxing foods high in associated GHGE, especially coupled with a revenue-neutral strategy of subsidising low-emission foods, is a promising tool to reduce emissions and improve health outcomes (Briggs et al. 2013). The rationale of taxing foods high in emissions or with a high associated land use is that it helps to “internalise” the wider costs of unsustainable foods to society. However, whether taxation of meat is a politically viable option is highly uncertain, especially because it is generally regressive in nature because poorer people spend proportionally more on food.
A final issue for moving towards greater environmental sustainability is the assumption that only top-down steering by governments and intergovernmental organisations can bring about desired change (Hajer et al. 2015). From a policy perspective, there should be much more attention to “governance”, and the “energetic society” – no single actor in the food system will be able to drive the change alone. The government needs to engage and collaborate with other actors as agents of change (Fischer et al. 2015). From an analytical point of view, novel and
complementary methodologies are needed to guide and research the transition towards a more sustainable food system (Geels et al. 2016). Other approaches, such as action research, can complement this research by exploring how on-the-ground actions might shape the transition to a more sustainable diet (Blay-Palmer et al. 2016)"


« Last Edit: August 19, 2018, 01:23:30 PM by bluesky »

Bruce Steele

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1270 on: August 21, 2018, 02:09:32 AM »
The Bering Sea didn't freeze during the 2017/2018 winter season. Surveys show shelf bottom temperatures didn't drop below 2C and as a consequence fish populations on the shelf have shifted
North of a thermal barrier that has been in place for 37 years of surveys.

http://www.nomenugget.com/news/noaa-survey-shows-shocking-lack-thermal-barrier-between-northern-and-southern-bering-sea

The missing young of year class/classes is going to reverberate through some of the biggest fisheries in the US. This is the first report on this survey, it isn't yet complete.
 IMO  The effects on managing those very important fish stocks is going to mean that managers consider the Bering Sea freeze conditions into stock assessments . Possibly as an environmental trigger resulting in restricted catches.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1271 on: August 22, 2018, 06:11:32 PM »
The new design shows the animals standing shoulder-to-shoulder, proudly walking in the wild.

No More Cages: New Animal Cracker Packaging Sets The Mighty Beasts Free
https://www.npr.org/2018/08/21/640584749/no-more-cages-new-animal-cracker-packaging-sets-the-mighty-beasts-free
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MrVisible

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1272 on: August 24, 2018, 05:00:18 AM »
The new design shows the animals standing shoulder-to-shoulder, proudly walking in the wild.

No More Cages: New Animal Cracker Packaging Sets The Mighty Beasts Free
https://www.npr.org/2018/08/21/640584749/no-more-cages-new-animal-cracker-packaging-sets-the-mighty-beasts-free

The polar bear is gone.

gerontocrat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1273 on: August 24, 2018, 11:35:20 AM »
The Bering Sea didn't freeze during the 2017/2018 winter season. Surveys show shelf bottom temperatures didn't drop below 2C and as a consequence fish populations on the shelf have shifted
North of a thermal barrier that has been in place for 37 years of surveys.

http://www.nomenugget.com/news/noaa-survey-shows-shocking-lack-thermal-barrier-between-northern-and-southern-bering-sea

The missing young of year class/classes is going to reverberate through some of the biggest fisheries in the US. This is the first report on this survey, it isn't yet complete.
 IMO  The effects on managing those very important fish stocks is going to mean that managers consider the Bering Sea freeze conditions into stock assessments . Possibly as an environmental trigger resulting in restricted catches.
Yet another reason to watch the Bering Sea freezing (or lack of freezing) season 2018-19.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1274 on: August 24, 2018, 08:03:58 PM »
Given how much plastic ends up in the ocean (and thus, FOOD), I think this article belongs here.

Norway Has A Radical Approach To Plastic Pollution, And It’s Working
Quote
While other industrialized nations grapple with dangerously problematic plastic consumption, Norway stands out, recycling up to 97 percent of its plastic bottles thanks to a nationwide bottle deposit scheme.

Ingrained in the Norwegian model is the idea that the container is on loan; it’s not yours. And why would you want it when you can exchange it over the counter ― at stores, gas stations or one of the several thousand reverse vending machines in public places like schools and supermarkets ― in return for cash or store credit?

Plastic producers in Norway are subject to an environmental tax. The more of their plastic they recycle, the lower the tax. Almost all of them are signed up to the bottle deposit scheme and, if they reach a collective recycling target of above 95 percent, they don’t have to pay at all. Producers have collectively met that target for the last seven years.

They ensure they reach that target by attaching a deposit value ― the equivalent of around 15 to 30 cents, depending on size ― to each plastic bottle, to be redeemed when it’s returned. The high-quality plastic waste that’s collected can then be recycled into everything from textiles to packaging, including new plastic bottles. ...
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/norway-plastic-pollution_us_5b7c07e0e4b05906b41779ee


Edit: also this:
Attention, Shoppers: Kroger Says It Is Phasing Out Plastic Bags
Quote
Kroger says it also is working on other measures to reduce waste, including a goal to "divert 90% of waste from the landfill by 2020."
https://www.npr.org/2018/08/23/641215873/attention-shoppers-kroger-says-it-is-phasing-out-plastic-bags
« Last Edit: August 24, 2018, 08:22:47 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1275 on: August 24, 2018, 08:09:59 PM »
The new design shows the animals standing shoulder-to-shoulder, proudly walking in the wild.

No More Cages: New Animal Cracker Packaging Sets The Mighty Beasts Free
https://www.npr.org/2018/08/21/640584749/no-more-cages-new-animal-cracker-packaging-sets-the-mighty-beasts-free

The polar bear is gone.

Good catch!   :'(

Although one doesn’t find many polar bears in — what appears to be — an African setting.  ;)
But no doubt the avoidance of disturbing polar bear extinction discussions figured into their thinking.
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kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1276 on: August 26, 2018, 10:09:28 AM »
Loss of marine habitats is threatening the global fishing industry – new research

New study reveals the first quantitative global evidence for the significant roles that seagrasses play in supporting fishery productivity.

Seafood consumption is both a love and a necessity for hundreds of millions of people worldwide. And its supply is a key part of maintaining food security for the whole planet. But during a time of rapid population growth and increasing demand, stocks of wild fish and invertebrates (such as mussels and prawns) are declining.

The problem is that policies and plans designed to make sure there are enough fish and invertebrates almost exclusively target fishing activity. But we also need to protect the critical habitats that are essential for the sustainability of these stocks and fisheries.

Most species that are fished require more than a single habitat to live and thrive. Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), for example, spends its adult life shoaling in deep water where it lives, feeds and spawns. But juveniles require more stable habitat such as seagrass meadows. So, if we want to manage fish and invertebrate stocks for sustainability reasons, it is essential to protect the supporting habitats of targeted species.

Seagrass meadows are just one of these critical habitats.

...

The coastal distribution of seagrass means that it is vulnerable to a multitude of threats from both land and sea. These include land runoff, coastal development, boat damage and trawling. On a global scale, seagrass is rapidly declining, and when seagrass is lost associated fisheries and their stocks are likely to become compromised with profound and negative economic consequences.

http://sciencenordic.com/loss-marine-habitats-threatening-global-fishing-industry-%E2%80%93-new-research

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1277 on: August 26, 2018, 02:46:01 PM »
sidd
I once talked to a farmer on California who claimed he was raising free range chickens in his apple orchard, He claimed that the insects and fallen fruit and greenery was all that was needed to keep his chicks well fed until he harvested them.
Is such a thing possible?
Terry

Absolutely. That is what silvopasture is all about. In this case, no additional area is taken up for food production for animals and animals can have beneficial efects on the trees (keeping the orchard floor weed free, eating harmful insects, etc)

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1278 on: August 27, 2018, 06:52:11 PM »
Giant deep sea coral reef discovered off South Carolina coast
It stretches for at least 85 miles and is likely the keystone source of the region's fisheries.

Some 160 miles off the coast of Charleston, South Carolina, a half mile below the ocean surface, is a dense forest of cold water corals. And based on their observations and recent sonar mapping of the ocean floor, researchers estimate that the reef runs for at least 85 linear miles.

The find comes as the Trump administration is proposing an expansive offshore drilling plan that could stretch up and down the Atlantic coast. Researchers hope that their findings will stall those plans, or at least strengthen efforts to designate protected zones. Given that these coral reefs are a new, previously unstudied ecosystem, it's unclear just how sensitive the region's ecology might be to oil and gas exploration.

It's a remarkable discovery, and proof of just how little we know about the ocean's ecosystems. Hopefully it won't disappear before we get a chance to truly explore and understand this natural wonder.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/scientists-discover-giant-deep-sea-coral-reef-off-atlantic-coast_us_5b81c298e4b0cd327dfd415e

I suspect this reef exists because of the Gulf Stream ocean currents that supply it with nutrients, oxygen and moderating water temperatures. Since it's a 1/2 mile down we can assume it's not growing because of photosynthesis.
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queenie

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1279 on: August 29, 2018, 06:29:01 PM »
sidd
I once talked to a farmer on California who claimed he was raising free range chickens in his apple orchard, He claimed that the insects and fallen fruit and greenery was all that was needed to keep his chicks well fed until he harvested them.
Is such a thing possible?
Terry
I am an organic apple farmer and chickens can be fantastic that way. We've used them on and off. The challenge for us is that food safety regulations require that the chickens be out of the orchard 90 days before the first fruit is picked and stay out until the last fruit is harvested. We have a wildly diverse apple collection and have fruits ripening from July thru November, this means they're only allowed to roam the orchard December thru March. Then there is the challenge of where to graze that many chickens in the months they can't be in the orchard. Still, it's worth thinking about weather some broilers that would head off to the butcher at the end of March might be an option. Of course, we'd have to have some hardy chicks to survive as little guys out in the orchard over the winter.
My understanding is that in Europe the regulations allow much better integration of animals into a farm system. Sadly, here our regulations can present challenges for smaller, diverse operations.
I often encourage homesteaders, who aren't selling apples, to use chickens as a part of their pest control.

sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1280 on: August 29, 2018, 09:22:58 PM »
" use chickens as a part of their pest control. "

Absolutely. Especially if you run livestock. Chicken wander around all the time eating ticks.

No bad as  an alarm system either.

sidd

sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1281 on: August 30, 2018, 12:42:51 AM »
Cockroaches ?

"1 billion cockroaches are consuming 50 tonnes of kitchen waste every day ..."


"Li said he feed his chickens with cockroach powder.

"The roasters are so strong that they even peck the dogs," he said."

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-08/29/c_137428193.htm

sidd



Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1282 on: August 30, 2018, 01:18:34 PM »
We discuss land use a lot in this thread.  Bloomberg’s new graphics are eye-opening.

How does America use its land? These maps show a whole new way to look at the U.S.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-us-land-use/
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1283 on: August 30, 2018, 06:35:04 PM »
https://www.agdaily.com/news/climate-corporation-seed-advisor/
(The The Climate Corporation is a division of Monsanto Company)

Bringing Digital Farming Products to Market
August 29, 2018
    Build It: The Climate Corporation applied machine learning techniques to build the Seed Advisor model using the most comprehensive seed genetics library in the world.
    Validate It: As the leading digital farming provider, The Climate Corporation has the unique ability to validate the Seed Advisor model against real-world seed performance data. The model was validated against more than 4 million acres of historical, real farm performance data in the Climate FieldView platform.
    Test It: In 2017, Seed Advisor demonstrated an average advantage of 6 bushels per acre with a nearly 80 percent win rate in farmer field trials. 2018 testing is underway on more than 100,000 acres, with expanded pre-commercial testing planned for the 2019 growing season. The pre-commercial test, called the Climate FieldView Innovators program, is targeting approximately 200 farmer participants.

Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1284 on: August 31, 2018, 10:04:49 AM »
Pests to eat more crops in warmer world

Insects will be at the heart of worldwide crop losses as the climate warms up, predicts a US study.

Scientists estimate the pests will be eating 10-25% more wheat, rice and maize across the globe for each one degree rise in climate temperature.

Warming drives insect energy use and prompts them to eat more. Their populations can also increase.

This is bound to put pressure on the world’s leading cereal crops, says study co-author Curtis Deutsch.

“Insect pests currently consume the equivalent of one out of every 12 loaves of bread (before they ever get made). By the end of this century, if climate change continues unabated, insects will be eating more than two loaves of every 12 that could have been made,” the University of Washington, US, researcher told BBC News.

and more on:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45358643

gerontocrat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1285 on: August 31, 2018, 10:22:34 AM »
Pests to eat more crops in warmer world

Insects will be at the heart of worldwide crop losses as the climate warms up, predicts a US study.

Scientists estimate the pests will be eating 10-25% more wheat, rice and maize across the globe for each one degree rise in climate temperature. Warming drives insect energy use and prompts them to eat more. Their populations can also increase. This is bound to put pressure on the world’s leading cereal crops, says study co-author Curtis Deutsch.

“Insect pests currently consume the equivalent of one out of every 12 loaves of bread (before they ever get made). By the end of this century, if climate change continues unabated, insects will be eating more than two loaves of every 12 that could have been made,” the University of Washington, US, researcher told BBC News.

and more on:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45358643
Hullo Kassy,

I picked up the article from the Guardian and posted it and comments on "decline in insect populations" (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2180.msg170560.html#new).

Why post it there? There is a contradiction between evidence on insect population decline and studies like this saying our food supply is at risk from increasing insect populations.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1286 on: August 31, 2018, 04:04:52 PM »
One for the Armageddon Scenario.
Like it or not, the possibility does exist.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2018/08/30/climate-change-could-render-many-earths-ecosystems-unrecognizable/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.5662bef8ff14&wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1
Climate change could render many of Earth’s ecosystems unrecognizable
Quote
“Even as someone who has spent more than 40 years thinking about vegetation change looking into the past … it is really hard for me to wrap my mind around the magnitude of change we’re talking about,” said ecologist Stephen Jackson, director of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center and the lead author of the new study.

“It is concerning to me to think about how much change and how rapidly the change is likely to happen, and how little capacity we have to predict the exact course,” he said, “which creates very large challenges for all of us out there who are trying to manage wildfire, fish, water, soil, endangered species — all those different ways in which natural ecosystems affect us.”

.....But in every other situation — particularly the “business as usual” high-emissions scenario, which predicts temperature increases of four degrees Celsius by 2100 — transformation will be unavoidable. That high-emissions scenario represents roughly the same magnitude of temperature increase as the historic shifts documented in the Science paper, Nolan noted. “But now instead of going from cold to warm,” he said, “we’re going from warm to way warmer and on time scales that are way faster than anything experienced in the past.”

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6405/920 - paywalled
Quote
Future predictions from paleoecology
Terrestrial ecosystems will be transformed by current anthropogenic change, but the extent of this change remains a challenge to predict. Nolan et al. looked at documented vegetational and climatic changes at almost 600 sites worldwide since the last glacial maximum 21,000 years ago. From this, they determined vegetation responses to temperature changes of 4° to 7°C. They went on to estimate the extent of ecosystem changes under current similar (albeit more rapid) scenarios of warming. Without substantial mitigation efforts, terrestrial ecosystems are at risk of major transformation in composition and structure.

Abstract
Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2018, 04:12:38 PM by gerontocrat »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1287 on: September 01, 2018, 03:26:25 PM »
“What we eat can save the world, and ourselves.”

Billions of farm animals deserve a day of rest too — keep them off the grill and off your table on Labor Day
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-schenone-animal-labor-day-20180831-story.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1288 on: September 02, 2018, 02:23:14 AM »
Chickens in the apple orchard?  Now try cows fertilizing their clover/alfalfa/grass crops — and consuming human food waste — on a floating dairy farm. 
Using vertical farming techniques to bring food production closer to the city.

World's first floating dairy farm comes to Rotterdam
https://www.treehugger.com/sustainable-agriculture/worlds-first-floating-dairy-farm-comes-rotterdam.html
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TerryM

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1289 on: September 02, 2018, 04:59:02 AM »
Is this payback for fish farming? 8)
Terry

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1290 on: September 03, 2018, 01:34:19 PM »
Give it a decade or so, and we’ll be making food out of CO2 on earth — without using plants.  (We’ll start this on Mars because the Martian atmosphere is CO2-rich, plants require a lot of resources, and the expense of developing technology to keep people alive in extreme conditions is not scoffed at.)
Quote
While sugar-based biomaterials are inexpensively made on Earth by plants, this approach cannot be easily adapted for space missions because of limited resources such as energy, water and crew time. The CO2 Conversion Challenge aims to help find a solution. Energy rich sugars are preferred microbial energy sources composed of carbon, hydrogen and oxygen atoms. They could be used as the feedstock for systems that can efficiently produce a variety of items. Glucose is the target sugar product in this challenge because it is the easiest to metabolize, which will optimize conversion efficiency.

New Competition Aims to Convert Carbon Dioxide into Sweet Success | NASA
https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/centennial_challenges/co2challenge/challenge-announced.html
« Last Edit: September 03, 2018, 01:47:35 PM by Sigmetnow »
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El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1291 on: September 03, 2018, 02:32:13 PM »
We discuss land use a lot in this thread.  Bloomberg’s new graphics are eye-opening.

How does America use its land? These maps show a whole new way to look at the U.S.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-us-land-use/

This is a great map, that shows us many things. One of those:there is more than enough land to produce food for mankind but keeping animals is a very wasteful method besides being unhumane (go see a "chicken-factory" or a "modern" cow farm - they will remind you of the movie "Matrix". Huge areas are used for producing feedstock unnecessarily.

If animals can be integrated into human food production (see above, eg. chickens to clean up apple orchards, sheep/goats for weed control, alpine milk production), i am OK with that. But wasting huge areas for animal meat production which could be use more productively for growing food for humans is not very clever. If those areas are not needed for food production then, let's use them to sequester carbon/recreating biodiversity by reforestration.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1292 on: September 04, 2018, 01:38:27 AM »
We discuss land use a lot in this thread.  Bloomberg’s new graphics are eye-opening.

How does America use its land? These maps show a whole new way to look at the U.S.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-us-land-use/

This is a great map, that shows us many things. One of those:there is more than enough land to produce food for mankind but keeping animals is a very wasteful method besides being unhumane (go see a "chicken-factory" or a "modern" cow farm - they will remind you of the movie "Matrix". Huge areas are used for producing feedstock unnecessarily.

If animals can be integrated into human food production (see above, eg. chickens to clean up apple orchards, sheep/goats for weed control, alpine milk production), i am OK with that. But wasting huge areas for animal meat production which could be use more productively for growing food for humans is not very clever. If those areas are not needed for food production then, let's use them to sequester carbon/recreating biodiversity by reforestration.

Yes.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1293 on: September 04, 2018, 03:32:31 PM »
“Krüsken wants tax breaks for farmers and a detailed, long-term strategy about how to deal with climate change.”

German Farmers Struck By Drought Fear Further Damage From Climate Change
https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/08/31/642435250/german-farmers-struck-by-drought-fear-further-damage-from-climate-change
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

queenie

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1294 on: September 05, 2018, 05:22:36 PM »
This may be the wrong thread for this but because I'm a farmer, thinking about climate change, this is where I lurk. If this should be moved, maybe to some thread for stupid questions or rants about the press, please feel free.

This is your friendly PNW apple orchardist needing help with a response to the New York Times. They recently published a cool calculator that lets you see how many 90 degree and above days there were in your town on “the year you were born,” "in 2017" and “by the time you’re 80”. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/30/climate/how-much-hotter-is-your-hometown.html

 As an apple farmer I’m acutely aware of these hot days as the temperatures in the mid-90s put apples into sunburn territory (unless smoke from fires limits the suns intensity, but that’s another story).  I used Portland because it’s a close big city with good data. This year we had thirty 90-plus days so far, a record. There are likely more to come as last year we had six in September.

The calculator told me that in the year of my birth there were 4 days above 90 degrees, by 2017 I could expect 5 days and by 2044 I could expect 6 to 14 days above 90.  Really?! I don’t know what a year with only five 90-degree-plus days would be like. It sounds like bliss. Thinking this was wildly lowballing it, I went to weather.gov and added up the 90-degree days for each of the last 10 years. This is what I got for Portland. 2009:24, 2010:11, 2011:7 (I remember this cold year, because we got almost no tomatoes) 2012:11, 2013:10, 2014:21, 2015:26; 2016:14, 2017:24, 2018:30 (so far). This means the average for the last 10 years is 17.7 days of 90 degrees or higher and for the last five years it has averaged 23 such days. Again, the New York Times says we should be expecting 5. 

So, here are my questions. Why are they so wildly off? What time frames are they using to construct their baselines and projections? Are they looking at the last 10 years or the last several thousand? Should I believe them and figure the last decade is some kind of blip in the graph? I’m expecting it to continue to be hot like this, and even hotter. Am I wrong?

I want to write to them and tell them to take a harder look at the actual temperatures in the region. I want to see them defend their numbers. Do their numbers make sense to those paying daily attention to this sort of data and these trends?

Personally, I’m expecting 20 or more of these days most years and planning my perennial plantings accordingly. As a farmer of perennial fruits, we plant things we’re not going to harvest for several years, sometimes a decade. We have to get this stuff right or we go broke. I’ve got heirloom apple varieties, historically grown in this region, that in the last five years have dropped a significant amount of their fruit green. I’m moving them out and others that are more heat tolerant in. Am I planning wrong? Should I keep these trees going under the assumption that the days of bliss return?

I might be hoping for the return of years with just a week of 90 degree days but I'm not counting on it. 

oren

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1295 on: September 06, 2018, 11:37:13 PM »
Maybe they used a different criterion than yours - x hours above 90F, average above 90F, but it is very odd. The days of bliss are sadly not coming back.

queenie

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1296 on: September 07, 2018, 06:13:28 AM »
That's possible. The research was done for the New York Times by the Climate Impact Lab so I decided to write them a note. I'll let you know what they say.

Yes, I fear the lovely, cool summers are a thing of the past. 

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1297 on: September 08, 2018, 05:23:46 PM »
How do you count/measure those days?

Days with temps at or over 90F during some hours of the day?

They might use days where 90F is the average temperature over the actual day (so not counting night).

or days where 90F is the average over the 24 hour day (this one makes most sense i think).

May your planned plantings bear plentiful fruits!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1298 on: September 09, 2018, 03:18:38 PM »
The Ocean Cleanup Technology
Quote
The ocean is big. Cleaning up the Great Pacific Garbage Patch using conventional methods - vessels and nets - would take thousands of years and tens of billions of dollars to complete. Our passive systems are estimated to remove half the Great Pacific Garbage patch in just five years, and at a fraction of the cost. Our first cleanup system will be deployed in the summer of 2018. This is how it works....
https://www.theoceancleanup.com/technology/

“Passive systems” gather the trash.  Active systems remove it periodically.
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1299 on: September 09, 2018, 07:21:38 PM »
RE: The Ocean Cleanup Technology
Great news indeed. The race is on to prevent the existing plastic from degrading to micro and nano particle size because that's when it starts moving up the food chain.  Excellent example of using even more technology to address a problem technology created to begin with. If they can extract economic value from the waste stream it may even be self sustaining. Long term we have to deal with single use packaging. Bring back reusable containers with a return deposit maybe.

One of every two breaths of oxygen you take came from the ocean. We are changing the oceans in so many ways over such a short time frame the odds we are going to start hitting tipping points is quickly rising. The average lifespan of the base of the food web is days to a few weeks so once you disrupt one or two generations of a species things can go downhill fast.

Addendum:
Another approach, but I'm concerned they discount the effect of feeding microbes plastic molecules and how it might affect the food chain.

"Chinese scientists have developed a plastic that degrades in seawater and could help curb the increasingly serious plastic pollution in the oceans.

The new polyester composite material can decompose in seawater over a period ranging from a few days to several hundred days, leaving small molecules that cause no pollution, said Wang Gexia, a senior engineer at the Technical Institute of Physics and Chemistry of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

"For a long time, people focused on 'white pollution' on land. Plastic pollution in the seas only caught people's attention when more and more reports about marine animals dying from it appeared in recent years," said Wang.

About 4.8 million to 12.7 million tones of plastic waste goes into the seas very year, accounting for 60 percent to 80 percent of the total solid pollutants in the oceans, according to a conservative estimate by scientists.

Due to human activities and ocean currents, most of the waste gathers in the north and south Pacific, the north and south Atlantic and the central Indian Ocean.

French media reported that a plastic waste concentration in the ocean between California and Hawaii could be as large as 3.5 million square kilometers, or seven times the territory of France - and growing by 80,000 square kilometers a year.

The World Economic Forum has also warned that the total weight of plastic wastes in the oceans would surpass the total weight of marine fish in 2050.

Almost all the types of plastics are found at sea, either floating on the surface or sinking to the bottom, and they cannot decompose for decades or even centuries, said Wang."
« Last Edit: September 10, 2018, 03:23:06 AM by jacksmith4tx »
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