Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD

[Klondike Kat]

This is not directly related to climate change, but to agriculture in the USA:

"Giessel, 66, said he had once gotten to the point where he didn’t have to borrow his working capital and had a relatively new set of equipment, but he has had to borrow money for the last three years just to put in a crop."

I am seeing this a lot. Farmers who had their nose above water are goin under.

"The February survey of rural bankers in parts of 10 Plains and Western states showed that nearly two-thirds of banks in the region raised loan collateral requirements on fears of a weakening farm income. The Rural Mainstreet survey showed nearly one-third of banks reported they rejected more farm loan applications for that reason."

"Grain prices peaked in 2012 and prices have roughly fallen 36 percent since then for soybeans, 50 percent for corn and 48 percent for wheat."

“The big key in terms of whether or not we enter a financial crisis would be what would happen to land values,” Featherstone said. “So far land values have gradually declined, so that has kind of prevented us from maybe entering a situation like we did in the 1980s.”

I was ther in the 80's. Nobaody wants that again. Might happen.

sidd

He is cherry picking the 2012 drought year, when food prices skyrocket due to agricultural losses.  Recent prices are similar to what they were in 2010.  This appears to be nothing more than fear-mongering.

[sidd]

Nevertheless i am seeing increasing signs of financial stress among small (less than a few thousand acres) farmers in the Midwest.

sidd

[Klondike Kat]

Quite possible.  Large farms and favorable weather have led to abundant harvests, thereby depressing prices.  Not to mention the ever increasing pressures applied by local municipalities trying to gobble up prime real estate.

[kassy]

Climate change is shifting productivity of fisheries worldwide

...

The study looked at historical abundance data for 124 species in 38 regions, which represents roughly one-third of the reported global catch. The researchers compared this data to records of ocean temperature and found that 8 percent of populations were significantly negatively impacted by warming, while 4 percent saw positive impacts. Overall, though, the losses outweigh the gains.

"We were surprised how strongly fish populations around the world have already been affected by warming," said Free, "and that, among the populations we studied, the climate 'losers' outweigh the climate 'winners.'"

...

When examining how the availability of fish for food has changed from 1930 to 2010, the researchers saw the greatest losses in productivity in the Sea of Japan, North Sea, Iberian Coastal, Kuroshio Current and Celtic-Biscay Shelf ecoregions. On the other hand, the greatest gains occurred in the Labrador-Newfoundland region, Baltic Sea, Indian Ocean and Northeastern United States.

Although the changes in fisheries productivity have so far been small, there are vast regional discrepancies. For instance, East Asia has seen some of the largest warming-driven declines, with 15 to 35 percent reductions in fisheries productivity. "This means 15 to 35 percent less fish available for food and employment in a region with some of the fastest growing human populations in the world," said Free. Mitigating the impacts of regional disparities will be a major challenge in the future.

and more on:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190228154846.htm

[Sigmetnow]

Considering the lobster: Maine joins US Climate Alliance

Maine is the latest state to join the U.S. Climate Alliance, as Governor Janet Mills (D) announced her intent in a speech which expressed concerns about climate change affecting Maine’s famous lobster industry, among other repercussions.
...
In addition to joining the Alliance, Mills announced her intentions to see that Maine reaches 80 percent renewable electricity generation by 2030, and 100 percent by 2050. Mills said her administration will create a Maine Climate Council. The council — to consist of various officials, experts, and industry and non-profit leaders — will lead the state’s efforts to curb emissions. ...

Mills listed a number of ways climate change is already affecting Maine, noting that “The Gulf of Maine is warming at a rate faster than 99 percent of the world’s oceans, driving our lobster populations further up the coast.” She also cited wildly fluctuating temperatures in the state and more acidic coastal waters. ...

https://electrek.co/2019/03/01/maine-us-climate-alliance/

[Sigmetnow]

U.S.:  Ruined crops, salty soil: How rising seas are poisoning North Carolina’s farmland

Pugh estimates that recent flooding — and the associated salinization — cost him $2 million in lost crops over the past five years. Last year, the field where Manda is now working became so pockmarked with barren patches Pugh stopped planting it altogether.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/ruined-crops-salty-soil-how-rising-seas-are-poisoning-north-carolinas-farmland/2019/03/01/2e26b83e-28ce-11e9-8eef-0d74f4bf0295_story.html

[kassy]

Italy may depend on olive imports from April, scientist says

Extreme weather blamed for plunge in country’s olive harvest – the worst in 25 years

...

In the past 18 months, Italy has experienced summer droughts, autumn floods and spring ice waves.

Olive trees are weakened by these kinds of weather shocks and, even if they recover, are left more vulnerable to outbreaks of the xylella fastidiosa bacterium and olive fly infestations, which have hit farmers in Italy and Greece, Valentini said.

Italy’s Coldiretti farmers’ union estimates that the cost of the olive oil collapse this year has already reached €1bn.

...

Beyond Italy, the European commission has projected 2018-19 olive harvests to drop by 20% in Portugal and 42% in Greece, although industry sources said final figures there could be significantly worse.

Greek farmers were devastated by extreme drought and then heavy rains, which acted as a “trigger event” for olive fly infestations, according to Valentini.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/05/italy-may-depend-on-olive-imports-from-april-scientist-says

[El Cid]

Italy may depend on olive imports from April, scientist says

Extreme weather blamed for plunge in country’s olive harvest – the worst in 25 years

Yes we can blame it on the weather but have you seen these oilve plantations? They are just terrible from a soil health point of view. Clean cultivation, herbicides, nothing to hold the top soil together, the first rain washes it all away, creating gullies, etc. Zero biodiversity I might add. No soil there just dirt. No surprise the trees are sick...a terrible sight if you ask me

[Neven]

Indeed, I just translated a documentary on southern Italy, and those barren soils around the trees depressed me:

[magnamentis]

Indeed, I just translated a documentary on southern Italy, and those barren soils around the trees depressed me:

perhaps i missed something but this is the kind of soil where olive trees grow for eons so to say, it's their natural environment and i personally have never seen (doesn't mean it does not exist) an olive tree growing inside a green lawn or field..

what i know for sure that where i live and my grand parents live, in southern spain, it has been that way when i was a boy, hence around 60 years ago an as well in greece as well as in palestine/israel it has been that way for as long as we have documents that show or describe "oliven haine" and in our region down here olive trees grow in the hottest regions inland for hundreds of kilometers up north while in the more humid regions near the coast or lakes orange and lemon tries prevail in the open and unfortunately all that stuff under plastic.

if i did not miss a point and you perhaps thought it has to be more green around olive trees i can tell that there is no reason to be depressed, that's the only way olive trees grow, in more humid regions they have to strong competitors and can't prevail, they do where most other plants die due to aridity.

[El Cid]

I don't think you are right. Modern herbicides created the opportunity for clean cultivation with not a weed in sight - before those, it was simply not possibble. 200 or 2000 years ago people mowed/cut the weeds to reduce competition but left the cuttings in place, keeping soil critters alive, and as they did not uproot the weeds/grasses, there were some roots in the ground keeping the soil together. What you see now in an olive plantation is that the topsoil (whatever there is left) is washed away because there is nothing to hold it there. And yes, it is probably like that in the past 40-50-60-70 yrs. Doesn't mean it's good. Let's not forget that ancient Romans could deplete their own soil so much, that it was considered a very good year if it gave 4 times back the seed that was planted and grains could not be profitably grown at all...after that soils were not cultivated for hundreds of years at many places...

[El Cid]

Let me add this:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/only-60-years-of-farming-left-if-soil-degradation-continues/

"if current rates of degradation continue all of the world's top soil could be gone within 60 years"

"The causes of soil destruction include chemical-heavy farming techniques, deforestation which increases erosion, and global warming"

Soil erosion is at least as big a danger as climate change. Current practices are totally unsustainable.

[vox_mundi]

How America’s Food Giants Swallowed the Family Farms   
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/09/american-food-giants-swallow-the-family-farms-iowa

Across the midwest, the rise of factory farming is destroying rural communities. And the massive corporations behind this devastation are now eyeing a post-Brexit UK market 

... the cycle of economic shocks has blended with government policies to create a “monopolisation of the livestock industry, where a few multinational corporations control a vast majority of the livestock”.

Gibbons explains: “They are vertically integrated, from animal genetics to grocery store. What they charge isn’t based upon what it costs to produce, and it’s not based on supply and demand, because they know what they need to make a profit. What they have done, through government support and taxpayer support, is to intentionally overproduce so that the price stays low, sometimes below the cost of production. That kicks their competition out of the market. Then they become the only player in town.

“Over time, it has extracted wealth and power from communities. We can see how that has impacted rural main streets. You can see the boarded-up storefronts. You can see the lack of economic opportunity.”

Gibbons says that corporations game the system by obtaining low-interest, federally guaranteed loans to build concentrated animal feeding operations (Cafos) that then overproduce. But they know the government will buy up the surplus to stabilise prices.

---------------------------

High-Tech Agriculture: Farmers Risk Being 'Locked In' to Unsustainable Practices 
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-high-tech-agriculture-farmers-tounsustainable.html

Digital approaches in farming are called "precision agriculture", which aims to measure the needs of crops or livestock as precisely as possible to be able to apply "the right amount at the right time". This has proven to be a valuable approach, particularly for crops, and has been driven by the development of embedded computing, GPS guidance and machine control interfaces.

The precision-agriculture approach can also help reduce inefficiencies and waste. For example, precision pesticide application methods can significantly reduce spray falling outside areas to be treated and thus the amount of pesticide entering the environment. In this way, sprayers can maintain treatment effectiveness while reducing application rates 20% to 40%.

However, precision agriculture does not call into question pesticide use. It works by refining current practices and does not encourage the exploration of alternatives. This is what scientists call "technological lock-in", with precision approaches reinforcing pesticide use rather than eliminating it. This in no way prepares us for farming that is less reliant on pesticides – farmers become locked in.

Like digital approaches developed in other industrial sectors, those for farming tend to impose standardisation and optimisation under well-controlled conditions. The risk, therefore, is that digital technology could increase productivity but also cut employment in the sector, boost farm size, and deepen technological dependence, with relatively little positive impact on sustainability.

[vox_mundi]

Sick Marine Mammals Turning Up on California Beaches in Droves 
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-03-sick-marine-mammals-california-beaches.html

... While the exact reason for the increase in the number of strandings this year is unknown, Higuchi said it could be tied to warmer ocean waters caused by an El Nino weather pattern or excess stormwater runoff from all of this winter's rains.

Warm waters often reduce the amount of bait fish in the ocean, such as sardines and anchovies, which larger marine mammals eat. The smaller forage fish tend to swim in cold water, so during an El Nino event the fish may be diving deeper or farther out than usual—out of the reach of young sea lions

[Bruce Steele]

The Calif. Sea Lion population is at carrying capacity and we should expect higher mortalities when and if an El Niño arrives here. Current anchovy surveys show a healthy stock with egg and larva analysis of about a million ton biomass. There are several threatened and endangered steelhead and salmon populations suffering from Calif. Sea Lion predation .
 


"Population: The U.S. population of California sea lions is currently estimated at up to 300,000 animals, all on the Pacific coast. From an estimated population of about 10,000 animals in the 1950s, U.S. California sea lion numbers have grown rapidly since the 1970s and the species is now at “carrying capacity”—near the highest level the environment can sustain—according to wildlife biologists. A population survey conducted in 2006 by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) documented 1,200 California sea lions and 1,000 Steller sea lions near the mouth of the Columbia River alone.
Diet: California sea lions feed on a variety of fish and shellfish, including salmon, steelhead, Pacific whiting, herring, mackerel, eulachon, lamprey, codfish, walleye Pollock, spiny dogfish and squid. In recent years, they have also been observed preying on Columbia River sturgeon. Studies of scat samples collected in coastal waters and the Columbia River estuary indicate that salmon comprise 10 to 30 percent of the animals’ diet. Additional studies have shown that the percentage of salmon and steelhead in sea lions’ diet increases as they move upriver. Each year since 2004, California sea lions have consumed 3,000 to 3,500 salmon and steelhead immediately below Bonneville Dam, according to an ongoing study by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers."

[vox_mundi]

Fatal Horizon, Driven by Acidification, Closes In on Marine Organisms in Southern Ocean 
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-fatal-horizon-driven-acidification-marine.html

Marine microorganisms in the Southern Ocean may find themselves in a deadly vise grip by century's end as ocean acidification creates a shallower horizon for life, new University of Colorado Boulder research finds.

The modeling study, published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, forecasts that at current carbon dioxide emission rates, the depth at which some shelled organisms can survive will shrink from an average of 1,000 meters today to just 83 meters by the year 2100, a drastic reduction in viable habitat.

The steep drop, which could happen suddenly over a period as short as one year in localized areas, could impact marine food webs significantly and lead to cascading changes across ocean ecosystems, including disruptions of vital global fisheries.

While the individual simulations of the model differed on the timing of the threshold change—with some predicting it as early as 2006 and others as late as 2038—the research suggests that the change may be an inevitability in large regions of the Southern Ocean regardless of future mitigation efforts.

"If emissions were curbed tomorrow, this suddenly shallow horizon would still appear, even if possibly delayed," Lovenduski said. "And that inevitability, along with the lack of time for organisms to adapt, is most concerning."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0418-8

[vox_mundi]

Game Over Man; Game Over! ...

Few Pathways to an Acceptable Climate Future Without Immediate Action
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-pathways-climate-future-action.html

...The massive analysis shows that meeting the 2.00 C target is exceptionally difficult in all but the most optimistic climate scenarios. One pathway is to immediately and aggressively pursue carbon-neutral energy production by 2030 and hope that the atmosphere's sensitivity to carbon emissions is relatively low, according to the study. If climate sensitivity is not low, the window to a tolerable future narrows and in some scenarios, may already be closed.

... If the climate sensitivity is greater than 3.00K (median of assumed distribution), the pathway to a tolerable future is likely already closed. 



Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action, Nature Climate Change (2019).

[vox_mundi]

Rainfall Changes for Key Crops Predicted even with Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions 
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-rainfall-key-crops-greenhouse-gas.html

Even if humans radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions soon, important crop-growing regions of the world can expect changes to rainfall patterns by 2040. In fact, some regions are already experiencing new climatic regimes compared with just a generation ago. The study, published March 11 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, warns that up to 14 percent of land dedicated to wheat, maize, rice and soybean will be drier, while up to 31 percent will be wetter

Drier regions include Southwestern Australia, Southern Africa, southwestern South America, and the Mediterranean, according to the study. Wheat cropland in Central Mexico is also headed for a drier future. Wetter areas include Canada, Russia, India and the Eastern United States.

The four crops in the study represent about 40 percent of global caloric intake and the authors say that, regardless of how much mitigation is achieved, all regions—both wetter and drier—need to invest in adaptation, and do so urgently in areas expected to see major changes in the next couple of decades.

Drier conditions are expected for many major wheat producers. In Australia, about 27 percent of wheat-growing land will see less precipitation, under a mid-emissions scenario. Algeria (100 percent), Morocco (91 percent), South Africa (79 percent), Mexico (74 percent), Spain (55 percent), Chile (40 percent), Turkey (28 percent), Italy (20 percent) and Egypt (15 percent) are other major producers that will be affected.

Maisa Rojas el al., "Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century," PNAS (2019).

[El Cid]

I have some doubts about modelling future rainfall patterns, as scientists struggle very hard even to replicate the Green Sahara with there models. They need to tweak them quite a lot to replicate the paleorecord. And the Green Sahara is quite a recent event. I also read some studies where historical Holocene Optimum rainfall patterns were not very well replicated by the models.

[vox_mundi]

England Could Run Short of Water Within 25 Years   
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/18/england-to-run-short-of-water-within-25-years-environment-agency

Environment Agency chief calls for use to be cut by a third   

... “Around 25 years from now, where those [demand and supply] lines cross is known by some as the ‘jaws of death’ – the point at which we will not have enough water to supply our needs, unless we take action to change things,” Bevan told the Guardian, before a speech on Tuesday at the Waterwise conference in London.

In the speech, Bevan says: “Water companies all identify the same thing as their biggest operating risk: climate change.” By 2040, more than half of our summers are expected to be hotter than the 2003 heatwave, he says, leading to more water shortages and potentially 50-80% less water in some rivers in the summer.

[Klondike Kat]

I have some doubts about modelling future rainfall patterns, as scientists struggle very hard even to replicate the Green Sahara with there models. They need to tweak them quite a lot to replicate the paleorecord. And the Green Sahara is quite a recent event. I also read some studies where historical Holocene Optimum rainfall patterns were not very well replicated by the models.

I agree.  While increasing temperatures will result in increased overall rainfall, trying to pinpoint certain patterns is tenuous at best.

[vox_mundi]

Pesticide Residues Found In 70% of Produce Sold in US Even After Washing   
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/20/pesticide-residues-produce-even-after-washing-us

... According to the Environmental Working Group’s annual analysis of US Department of Agriculture data, strawberries, spinach and kale are among the most pesticide-heavy produce, while avocados, sweetcorn and pineapples had the lowest level of residues.

More than 92% of kale tested contained two or more pesticide residues, according to the analysis, and a single sample of conventionally farmed kale could contain up to 18 different pesticides.

Dacthal – the most common pesticide found, which was detected in nearly 60% of kale samples, is banned in Europe and classified as a possible human carcinogen in the US.

---------------------------

Monsanto: Roundup Substantial Factor In Man's Cancer, Jury Finds In Key Verdict - Again 
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/19/monsanto-trial-roundup-verdict-edwin-hardeman-cancer

A federal jury in San Francisco found Monsanto’s Roundup herbicide was a substantial factor in causing the cancer of a California man, in a landmark verdict that could affect hundreds of other cases.

... Hardeman’s case is considered a “bellwether” trial for hundreds of other plaintiffs in the US with similar claims, which means the verdict could affect future litigation and other cancer patients and families. Monsanto, now owned by the German pharmaceutical company Bayer, is facing more than 9,000 similar lawsuits across the US.

... [the judge] issued something of a rebuke of the company in one procedural order last week, saying:

... "Although the evidence that Roundup causes cancer is quite equivocal, there is strong evidence from which a jury could conclude that Monsanto does not particularly care whether its product is in fact giving people cancer, focusing instead on manipulating public opinion and undermining anyone who raises genuine and legitimate concerns about the issue.”

The unanimous ruling on Tuesday follows a historic verdict last August in which a California jury in state court ruled that Roundup caused the terminal cancer of Dewayne Johnson, a former school groundskeeper. That jury said Monsanto failed to warn Johnson of Roundup’s health hazards and “acted with malice or oppression”, awarding Johnson $289m in damages.

[vox_mundi]

Predicted Deforestation in Brazil Lead to Local Temperature Increase Up to 1.45 C   
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-deforestation-brazil-local-temperature.html



... The authors found that deforestation and forestation generally appeared to have opposite effects of similar magnitude on local temperature. However, the nature of the effect and the magnitude of the temperature change depended on latitude: in tropical and temperate regions, deforestation led to warming, while forestation had cooling effects. In boreal regions, deforestation led to slight cooling, though the magnitude of the effect was smaller. The magnitude of the forest change effects was greatest in tropical regions, with, for example, deforestation of approximately 50 percent leading to local warming of over 1°C.

The authors used their model to predict local temperature change in Brazil between 2010 and 2050. Assuming the current rate of illegal deforestation is maintained, this predicted an annual land surface temperature rise of up to 1.45°C in some areas by 2050. ...

Prevedello JA, Winck GR, Weber MM, Nichols E, Sinervo B (2019) Impacts of forestation and deforestation on local temperature across the globe. PLoS ONE 14(3): e0213368

[vox_mundi]

SHTF Plan: UK’s Emergency Plans for No-deal Brexit Begin to be Put Into Action
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/20/uks-emergency-plans-for-no-deal-brexit-begin-to-be-put-into-action

Ministers to decide within days whether to initiate full-scale Operation Yellowhammer 

With the country placed on a knife-edge by Theresa May’s latest Brexit crisis, the government is preparing for “any outcome” with a decision on Monday on whether to roll out the national Operation Yellowhammer contingencies for food, medicine and banking.

Operation Yellowhammer: https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Contingency-preparations-for-exiting-the-EU-with-no-deal.pdf



It emerged on Wednesday that ministers had banned NHS hospitals from publishing risk assessments about how Brexit might affect them, allegedly because doing so could “put public wellbeing at risk”.

The Department of Health and Social Care has written to NHS trusts in England telling them not to put into the public domain their own analyses of the pitfalls facing them. ...
telling them they must “not share this information”

Meanwhile, Kent is going full steam ahead with its contingency plans to prevent gridlock on its roads in the event of congestion in Dover or Calais.

Concrete barriers have already been erected on the main port artery in Kent, with a section of the London-bound M20 between junction 8 and junction 9 now operating as a 50mph contraflow for normal traffic. Work on signage will be completed over the weekend.

The coastbound section will be closed off to all but lorry traffic from next week to allow Highways England to carry out a dry run to cope with possible chaos after 11pm on 29 March.

Manston airport near Ramsgate is in the final stages of preparation for use as a lorry park for up to 6,000 heavy goods vehicles in the event of gridlock.

According to reports, the Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, told cabinet ministers in a letter: “Operation Yellowhammer command and control structures will be enacted fully on 25 March unless a new exit date has been agreed between the UK and the EU.”

------------------------

UK ‘Four Meals Away from Anarchy’ In Event of Brexit No-deal, Warns Expert



------------------------

Secret Cabinet Office Document Reveals Chaotic Planning for No-Deal Brexit 
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/22/secret-cabinet-office-document-reveals-chaotic-planning-for-no-deal-brexit



The extent and range of the impact of a no-deal Brexit is revealed in a confidential Cabinet Office document that warns of a “critical three-month phase” after leaving the EU during which the whole planning operation could be overwhelmed.



The classified document, seen by the Guardian, sets out the command and control structures in Whitehall for coping with a no-deal departure and says government departments will have to firefight most problems for themselves – or risk a collapse of “Operation Yellowhammer”.



.... On Thursday it emerged that the Ministry of Defence has set up a bunker underneath its main building in Whitehall to coordinate any military response to Brexit.

The moves highlight growing concern about the disruption that could be caused by a no deal – with potential shortages of everything from medicines to fresh food and toilet paper.

[vox_mundi]

UN Calls for Urgent Rethink as Resource Use Skyrockets
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-urgent-rethink-resource-skyrockets.html

Rapid growth in extraction of materials (and overpopulation) is the chief culprit in climate change and biodiversity loss – a challenge that will only worsen unless the world urgently undertakes a systemic reform of resource use, according to a report released at the UN Environment Assembly.

Global Resources Outlook 2019, prepared by the International Resource Panel, examines the trends in natural resources and their corresponding consumption patterns since the 1970s to support policymakers in strategic decision-making and transitioning to a sustainable economy.

The main conclusions of the report are:

- Resource extraction has more than tripled since 1970, including a fivefold increase in the use of non-metallic minerals and a 45 per cent increase in fossil fuel use

- By 2060, global material use could double to 190 billion tonnes (from 92 billion), while greenhouse gas emissions could increase by 43 per cent

- The extraction and processing of materials, fuels and food contribute half of total global greenhouse gas emissions and over 90 per cent of biodiversity loss and water stress

... "The Global Resources Outlook shows that we are ploughing through this planet's finite resources as if there is no tomorrow, causing climate change and biodiversity loss along the way," said Joyce Msyua, Acting Executive Director of UN Environment. "Frankly, there will be no tomorrow for many people unless we stop." 

https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/27518

----------------------------

Related: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,473.msg178531.html#msg178531

The World Has Reached Peak Chicken, Peak Rice, And Peak Milk
https://www.fastcompany.com/3041927/the-world-has-reached-peak-chicken-peak-rice-and-peak-milk

We still haven’t reached peak oil. But peak milk happened in 2004, peak soybeans in 2009, and peak chicken in 2006. Rice peaked in 1988.

A new study published in Ecology and Society explains that 21 key resources that humans rely on–mostly food–have already passed their peak rate of production.

“Peak,” in this case, doesn’t mean that we’re actually producing fewer chickens or less milk yet. Instead, the researchers looked at the fact that the rate of production has plateaued, at the same time that population is increasing.

The researchers analyzed production rates over time for 27 key resources, including some fossil fuels. But while they found that nonrenewable resources like coal, oil, and gas haven’t peaked, most foods have.

Open Access: Seppelt, R., A. M. Manceur, J. Liu, E. P. Fenichel, and S. Klotz.  Synchronized peak-rate years of global resources use. Ecology and Society 19(4): 50. 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-07039-190450

[vox_mundi]

Report Outlines Growing Climate Change-Related Threats to Great Lakes Region
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-outlines-climate-change-related-threats-great.html

A team of Midwestern climate scientists has released a new report with grim predictions about the impact of climate change on the Great Lakes region. The report foresees a growing trend of wetter winters and springs, with increases in heavy rain events leading to flooding, particularly in urban areas with hard surfaces that cannot absorb the excess water. Rural areas will likely see more erosion, and unpredictable cycles of heat and rainfall could undermine agriculture.

http://elpc.org/glclimatechange/

--------------------------------------------

Archer Daniels Midland Expects to Lose Millions Due to Extreme Weather
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/archer-daniels-says-extreme-winter-weather-will-shave-up-to-60-million-off-q1-pretax-earnings-2019-03-25

Extreme winter weather is expected to affect Archer Daniels Midland Co.’s (ADM) North American operations to the tune of $50-60 million in the first quarter, the company said Monday.

...  "Extreme winter weather has affected our first quarter North American operations beyond what we would experience in a typical winter," the food company said in a regulatory filing. Snow and rain storms in March that caused flooding are affecting the company's Carbohydrates Solutions and Origination operations, said the filing. "Rail transportation has been disrupted throughout the region; our corn processing complex in Columbus, Nebraska, was idled due to flooding and currently is running at reduced rates; and unfavorable river conditions since December are severely limiting barge transportation movements and port activities."

“Earlier in the quarter, severe cold temperatures and snowstorms affected some of our Carbohydrate Solutions processing facilities in the Midwest,” ADM said. “The extreme weather reduced corn processing volumes principally due to a slowdown in rail and truck transportation, which affected both inbound and outbound shipments.”

---------------------------------

Fed Researcher Warns Climate Change Could Spur Financial Crisis
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-25/fed-researcher-warns-climate-change-could-spur-financial-crisis

Climate change is becoming increasingly relevant to central bankers because losses from natural disasters that are magnified by higher temperatures and elevated sea levels could spark a financial crisis, a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco researcher found.

“Climate-related financial risks could affect the economy through elevated credit spreads, greater precautionary saving, and, in the extreme, a financial crisis,’’ Glenn Rudebusch, the San Francisco Fed’s executive vice president for research, wrote in a paper published Monday.

“There could also be direct effects in the form of larger and more frequent macroeconomic shocks associated with the infrastructure damage, agricultural losses, and commodity price spikes caused by the droughts, floods, and hurricanes amplified by climate change,’’ according to Rudebusch, who is also a senior policy adviser at the reserve bank.

... Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told legislators in February it was a “fair question’’ to ask how the central bank would evaluate the economic impact of climate change and promised to look into it.

Climate Change and the Federal Reserve
https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2019/march/climate-change-and-federal-reserve/

[Klondike Kat]

Living within the Great Lakes region, I find this report largely misleading.  Very little flooding occurs in this region, as no major rivers, with their corresponding drainage systems, exist within these confines.  Flooding will always be more prevalent in urban areas, unlike changes occur in current drainage systems.  The great lakes region in engulfed in greater cloud cover than the surrounding areas, due precisely to the presence of the lakes.  This cloud cover, which will likely increase in a the coming years due to warming, will moderate the weather, not make it more unpredictable.  The region currently has more moderate winters and summers than the rest of the nation, which is unlikely to change.  NOAA shows the number of record high temperatures during the summer in this region to be quite low, especially compared to the rest of the country;  13 last year, 7 in 2016, and none in 2015 or 17.  All these changes will likely be a boon for agriculture, not an undermine. 

[vox_mundi]

KK: Your doubts are unconvincing and self-contradictory. Somewhere between skeptic and denialist. This appears to be a trend.

... Very little flooding occurs in this region ... Flooding will always be more prevalent.

... This cloud cover, which will likely increase in a the coming years due to warming, will moderate the weather, not make it more unpredictable. (he says ... with no data to back that up)

... The region currently has more moderate winters and summers than the rest of the nation, which is unlikely to change. (strawman - the report is not talking about the rest of the nation)

... NOAA shows the number of record high temperatures during the summer in this region to be quite low, especially compared to the rest of the country;  13 last year, 7 in 2016, and none in 2015 or 17. (again with the strawman  - the report is not talking about the rest of the nation)

-----------------------------------

From the Report Executive Summary: http://elpc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Great-Lakes-Climate-Change-Report_ExecutiveSummary.pdf

... Overall U.S. annual precipitation increased 4% between 1901 and 2015, but the Great Lakes region saw an almost 10% increase over this interval with more of this precipitation coming as unusually large events. In the future, precipitation will likely redistribute across the seasons. We expect wetter winters and springs, while summer precipitation should decrease by 5-15% for most of Great Lake states by 2100.

2018: Biggest Flood in 20 Years Hits Ohio Rive
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/biggest-flood-20-years-hits-ohio-river

...  As of Monday morning, over 200 river gauges reported levels above flood stage, primarily from the Great Lakes to eastern Texas

2019: Flooding continues on the Minnesota River
https://kstp.com/news/flooding-continues-on-minnesota-river/5291434/

2018: Michigan Hit with Devastating Floods
https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2018/06/18/michigan-flooding-orig-tc.cnn

... Heavy rain caused more than 60 sinkholes and washouts in Michigan.

2019: Emergency declared in part of western Michigan due to flooding
https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/03/19/emergency-flooding-western-michigan/3211078002/

2019: Governor declares state of emergency as flooding continues across wide swath of Wisconsin
https://www.jsonline.com/story/weather/2019/03/15/wisconsin-weather-flooding-continues-snow-melt-flows-into-rivers/3174315002/

... The flooding was occurring across a wide swath of Wisconsin, with high water closing roads and schools and sending residents in some of the hardest-hit areas scurrying for higher ground.

2019: NOAA: Michigan at risk for flooding through May
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/weather/2019/03/21/noaa-michigan-flooding-may/3242491002/

Great Lakes Water Levels - Potential Flooding
https://www.woodtv.com/weather/bill-s-blog/great-lakes-water-levels-potential-flooding/1821736666

... Great Lakes water levels are high and will continue to be high through most or all of 2019.  The combination of higher-than-average precipitation and lower-than-average evaporation due to high ice cover on the lakes continue to keep levels steady during a time when they might be going down.

The water level of Lake Superior is unchanged in the last month and unchanged in the last year.  The lake is 14" above average and only one inch lower than the highest March level reached in 1986.  The above average snow cover and the storm track up into the Great Lakes bring the possibility that Lake Superior will rise to record levels later this spring.

Lake Michigan/Huron is up 1" in the last month, up 2" in the last year and is now 21" above the March average.  Lake Erie is up 2" in the last month, up 1" in the last year and is now 22" above the century average for March.  Lake Ontario is up 4" in the last month, up 2" in the last year and is now 13" above the century average for March.

[El Cid]

KK: Your doubts are unconvincing and self-contradictory. Somewhere between skeptic and denialist. This appears to be a trend.

Anyone who is not saying that the world will end immediately but tries to stick to the facts is called a denialist and a skeptic. This appears to be a trend.

[Klondike Kat]

Vox,
Even your graphic shows minor flooding in the great lakes region, with much of the region showing no flooding.  Thank you for confirming my statement.

Even the experts agree that clouds have moderated temperature:
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-experts-reveal-clouds-moderated-triggered.html

The level of the lakes has nothing to do with flooding.  Flooding occurs along river system, and increases with the drainage area.

Using anecdotal statements to counter the data is the real strawman argument.  Your strawman claims appear to be catching fire.

[Klondike Kat]

KK: Your doubts are unconvincing and self-contradictory. Somewhere between skeptic and denialist. This appears to be a trend.

Anyone who is not saying that the world will end immediately but tries to stick to the facts is called a denialist and a skeptic. This appears to be a trend.

Agreed.  Since when has science taken a back seat to Eschatology.

[Arima]

Veronica dumps more than a year's worth of rain in less than 12 hours, Western Australia

https://watchers.news/2019/03/26/tropical-cyclone-veronica-year-worth-of-rain-12-hours/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[vox_mundi]

QG: ... The lady doth protest too much, methinks
- Act III, Scene II - Hamlet
-----------

Climate Change: Global Impacts 'Accelerating' - WMO
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/science-environment-47723577

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says that the physical and financial impacts of global warming are accelerating.

Record greenhouse gas levels are driving temperatures to "increasingly dangerous levels", it says.

Their report comes in the same week as the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a surge in CO2 in 2018

This year's State of the Climate report from the WMO is the 25th annual record of the climate. 

... "We know that if the current trajectory for greenhouse gas concentrations continues, temperatures may increase by 3 - 5 degrees C compared to pre-industrial levels by the end of the century and we have already reached 1 degree." ...

- According to the report, most of the natural hazards that affected nearly 62 million people in 2018 were associated with extreme weather and climate events.
- Some 35 million people were hit by floods.
- Hurricane Florence and Hurricane Michael were just two of 14 "billion dollar disasters" in 2018 in the US.
- Super Typhoon Mangkhut affected 2.4 million people in and killed 134, mainly in the Philippines.
- More than 1,600 deaths were linked to heat waves and wildfires in Europe, Japan and US.
- Kerala in India suffered the heaviest rainfall and worst flooding in nearly a century

... "There is no longer any time for delay," - foreword to the new study.

However earlier this week the International Energy Agency published worrying data , indicating that in 2018 carbon emissions were up 1.7%, as a result of the fastest growth in energy use in the last six years.

[vox_mundi]

Climate Extremes Hitting Maize Production Could Become the New Norm by 2020   
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-climate-extremes-maize-production-norm.html

JRC scientists have simulated the effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases on global maize production. The study shows that, even with an increase in global temperatures of just 1.5 °C, the heat waves and severe droughts that currently occur about once every ten years could become frequent phenomena by early 2020.

Without any mitigation and adaptation efforts, this would mean that the worst production losses experienced by maize producers to date would happen with increasing frequency. With a 2 degrees C temperature increase, maize production areas would be affected by heat and drought events never experienced before. The damages would be felt by both minor and major producers. 

The crop losses will be felt in the different parts of the world at different times. The impact will be felt first by minor producers, located mostly in developing countries in tropical regions.

Europe will be hit slightly later. However, scientists estimate that, in the worst-case scenario, these impacts could occur by 2020.

Based on simulations carried out by JRC scientists, producers in Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria will be among the first in Europe to be affected by big crop losses brought about by climate extremes.


Fig 2. Maize production losses due to heat and water stress (PCSI) in the historical and future climate simulations according to the RCP8.5 emission scenario ...  Light‐orange bands indicate the period when the past worse largest losses become normal (PWLBN), that is, when the 10‐year return level production losses (estimated on the period 1980–2010) are reached by the 11‐year running mean in the simulations.

Open Access: M. Zampieri et al. When Will Current Climate Extremes Affecting Maize Production Become the Norm?, Earth's Future (2019)

EU Adaptation Strategy: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what_en

[Klondike Kat]

Other studies come to different conclusions, even under RCP8.5, by the end of the century.

"Recession of spring freeze dates will allow an extended freeze free growing season and greater opportunity for double cropping towards the end of 21st century. These benefits may be masked though due to a faster GDD accumulation rate which will shorten the time to attain physiological maturity as well as occurrences of high temperature episodes (daily Tmax > 35°C) during important corn growth stages (such as R1-R6)."

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0198623

Recent farming adaptations, combined with favorable climatic changes, have fueled significant increases in crop yields.

"The combination of changes in climate, primarily cooling of the hottest temperatures, and farmer adjustments, including earlier planting and planting longer maturing varieties, increased maize yield trends 28 percent since 1981."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/11/181109185728.htm

[b_lumenkraft]

From the paper you linked:

Management strategies such as shifting the planting dates based on last spring freeze and irrigation during the greatest water deficit stages (R1-R6) will partially offset the projected increase in heat and drought stress. Future research should focus on understanding the effects of global warming at local levels and determining adaptation strategies that meet local needs.

What does double cropping do to you if there is no water?

[Klondike Kat]

From the paper you linked:

Management strategies such as shifting the planting dates based on last spring freeze and irrigation during the greatest water deficit stages (R1-R6) will partially offset the projected increase in heat and drought stress. Future research should focus on understanding the effects of global warming at local levels and determining adaptation strategies that meet local needs.

What does double cropping do to you if there is no water?

I was not aware that double cropping was one of the strategies.  Of course, that assumes that precipitation will decrease, even though precipitation has increased during the most recent warming period, and is expected to continue as the planet warms.

[aperson]

I was not aware that double cropping was one of the strategies.  Of course, that assumes that precipitation will decrease, even though precipitation has increased during the most recent warming period, and is expected to continue as the planet warms.

There are other sources of water supply beside precipitation. See: Snowpack runoff.

[b_lumenkraft]

Global precipitation increase does not prevent several regions from desertification.

[Klondike Kat]

I was not aware that double cropping was one of the strategies.  Of course, that assumes that precipitation will decrease, even though precipitation has increased during the most recent warming period, and is expected to continue as the planet warms.

There are other sources of water supply beside precipitation. See: Snowpack runoff.

Yes.  Both snowpack and precipitation have increased in the corn belt in recent years.

[aperson]

I was not aware that double cropping was one of the strategies.  Of course, that assumes that precipitation will decrease, even though precipitation has increased during the most recent warming period, and is expected to continue as the planet warms.

There are other sources of water supply beside precipitation. See: Snowpack runoff.

Yes.  Both snowpack and precipitation have increased in the corn belt in recent years.

Yes.  And the dates by which snowpack melt begin move earlier in the year, meaning that there will be increased river streamflow at the beginning of the growing season with decreased river streamflow from snowpack at other times. This increases flood risk while decreasing the duration that snowpack runoff can be relied upon as a water source.

[Klondike Kat]

I was not aware that double cropping was one of the strategies.  Of course, that assumes that precipitation will decrease, even though precipitation has increased during the most recent warming period, and is expected to continue as the planet warms.

There are other sources of water supply beside precipitation. See: Snowpack runoff.

Yes.  Both snowpack and precipitation have increased in the corn belt in recent years.

Yes.  And the dates by which snowpack melt begin move earlier in the year, meaning that there will be increased river streamflow at the beginning of the growing season with decreased river streamflow from snowpack at other times. This increases flood risk while decreasing the duration that snowpack runoff can be relied upon as a water source.

That simple means that planting will occur earlier to coincide with the snowmelt.

[gerontocrat]

I was not aware that double cropping was one of the strategies.  Of course, that assumes that precipitation will decrease, even though precipitation has increased during the most recent warming period, and is expected to continue as the planet warms.

There are other sources of water supply beside precipitation. See: Snowpack runoff.

Yes.  Both snowpack and precipitation have increased in the corn belt in recent years.

Yes.  And the dates by which snowpack melt begin move earlier in the year, meaning that there will be increased river streamflow at the beginning of the growing season with decreased river streamflow from snowpack at other times. This increases flood risk while decreasing the duration that snowpack runoff can be relied upon as a water source.

That simple means that planting will occur earlier to coincide with the snowmelt.

The cornbelt relies on over exploitation of groundwater -e.g. the Ogallala Aquifer. Increased precipitation may, or may not, cover the deficit.

http://duwaterlawreview.com/crisis-on-the-high-plains-the-loss-of-americas-largest-aquifer-the-ogallala/
Crisis on the High Plains: The Loss of America’s Largest Aquifer – the Ogallala
JEREMY FRANKEL  ·  MAY 17, 2018

The grain-growing region in the High Plains of America—known as America’s breadbasket—relies entirely on the Ogallala Aquifer. But long term unsustainable use of the aquifer is forcing states in the region to face the prospect of a regional economic disaster. As the High Plains states reach the verge of a major crisis, the states have taken different approaches to conservation with varying results.

The Ogallala Aquifer supports an astounding one-sixth of the world’s grain produce, and it has long been an essential component of American agriculture. The High Plains region—where the aquifer lies—relies on the aquifer for residential and industrial uses, but the aquifer’s water is used primarily for agricultural irrigation. The agricultural demands for Ogallala water in the region are immense, with the aquifer ultimately being responsible for thirty percent of all irrigation in the United States. The Ogallala Aquifer has long been unable to keep up with these agricultural demands, as the aquifer recharges far slower than water is withdrawn.

[Klondike Kat]

Yes.  Depleting the aquifer would be detrimental, and is a separate issue from climatic changes.

[wdmn]

Yes.  Depleting the aquifer would be detrimental, and is a separate issue from climatic changes.

In the sense of a causal link where one causes the other, yes (at least for now, though extreme weather could put more stress on the aquifer). However, if you look at climate change and the depletion of the aquifer both as consequences of a particular system or way of life, then the two are actually not unrelated.

[Klondike Kat]

Yes.  Depleting the aquifer would be detrimental, and is a separate issue from climatic changes.

In the sense of a causal link where one causes the other, yes (at least for now, though extreme weather could put more stress on the aquifer). However, if you look at climate change and the depletion of the aquifer both as consequences of a particular system or way of life, then the two are actually not unrelated.

That is somewhat of a stretch, but I see were you are headed.  However, if we eliminated all carbon-based fuels and embarked on a massive reforestation effort (theoretically stopping the CO2 rise, and possibly reversing), current farming techniques would still deplete the aquifer.

[El Cid]

"current farming techniques would still deplete the aquifer"

Current farming practices are clearly unsustainable and must change. They destroy the soil (instead of building it back), reduce biodiversity, put carbon into the atmosphere (instead of taking it out of the atmosphere) and most likely aggravate climate change (biotic pump theory) and give us bad food. They must change and do it quickly.

[wdmn]

And how would we have a massive reforestation effort while continuing our current farming practices? And how would we continue our current farming practices without them being carbon intensive? How much of the food grown in the Ogallala aquifer area is used as feed, or as the ethanol component in gasoline? Imagining things as they are just without adding greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere is possible (i.e. we can imagine it), but there's zero indication that it is technically possible.

[kassy]

The toxic plume (of PFAS contamination) is spreading slowly and inexorably – not only under Schaap’s fields but across the Ogallala Aquifer, the largest aquifer in the nation, which spans 174,000 miles and parts of eight states.

Running out of water is not the only problem there.
See https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,428.700.html

Page 15 post 736 and a couple of following.

So currently we are draining the aquifer and poisoning it and dreaming of two harvests.

[Shared Humanity]

And how would we have a massive reforestation effort while continuing our current farming practices? And how would we continue our current farming practices without them being carbon intensive? How much of the food grown in the Ogallala aquifer area is used as feed, or as the ethanol component in gasoline? Imagining things as they are just without adding greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere is possible (i.e. we can imagine it), but there's zero indication that it is technically possible.

The only possible solution is to stop eating meat, all of us.