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Author Topic: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD  (Read 494895 times)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1650 on: June 18, 2019, 09:37:47 AM »
Perhaps people who lose their crops to extreme weather now and in the near future don't have time to wait thousands of years for the Sahara to green up. The timeline might be crucial here. Just a thought...

Human Habitat Index

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1651 on: June 18, 2019, 10:06:36 AM »
Since climate models can not even replicate the Holocene Optimum well (eg. green Sahara, or European weather) I have serious doubts about their forecasts about future temperature patterns. Rainfall patterns are even harder to predict. Also, blaming every single bad weather event on climate change is mental laziness. Weather is changable, there were and will be floods, droughts, heatwaves, cold spells etc. everywhere. We do not know how the changing climate will change weather for agriculture other than knowing that it will be generally warmer and there will generally be more rain. There will surely be places where it will get worse and surely where it will be better (for example what if the Sahara gets green again? like 5-6 th. yrs ago, surely the people there will not be very unhappy about that...)
The net result of all these changes is not evident to me. Besides, i am quite sure (seeing technological change), that 50 yrs from now Co2 emissions will be a fraction of today and although the world of the future will surely be different (warmer and wetter) from today I do not think mankind will lose out.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/NoPlant19?src=hash
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1652 on: June 18, 2019, 01:45:25 PM »
Ten minutes of hail decimates the ‘Orchard of France.’  “The damage is enormous in a wide area – cereals, greenhouses, vegetable crops as well as vines have been hit.”

France to declare natural disaster after storms rip through crops
‘Orchard of France’ is badly hit by extreme weather that has killed two people
Quote
Nine French departments were put on alert at the weekend after warnings of violent storms, hail and winds. When the storms struck, they were brief but catastrophic, particularly in the Drôme and Isère.

“It lasted 10 minutes, but 10 minutes of a hail storm … there’s a lot of damage in a 10km zone in the Drôme,” the minister added.

Guillaume said many farmers had lost 80-100% of their crops. He added that the state of disaster would be declared when the extent of the devastation was known in “a day or two”. ...
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/16/france-to-declare-natural-disaster-after-storms-rip-through-crops
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kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1653 on: June 18, 2019, 02:25:06 PM »
The usual climate regions are shifting. Southern Europe will become more like the Sahara. Local rainfall yoy will be lower even is the world gets wetter. And added heat means added evaporation.

Of course we are growing our food mostly in the regions that have (had) the proper climate for it.

Curious how the summer in W-Europe will pan out. Hope we don't get a repeat of last year but we very well might get it.

Also if the Sahara suddenly gets rains to green it that does not mean we could use that to farm. There should be a soil first and that would take some time to form. The bedrock under that northern glacier that melted is not good for farming either even is the weather is fine.
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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1654 on: June 18, 2019, 03:07:04 PM »
Since climate models can not even replicate the Holocene Optimum well (eg. green Sahara, or European weather) I have serious doubts about their forecasts about future temperature patterns. Rainfall patterns are even harder to predict. Also, blaming every single bad weather event on climate change is mental laziness. Weather is changable, there were and will be floods, droughts, heatwaves, cold spells etc. everywhere. We do not know how the changing climate will change weather for agriculture other than knowing that it will be generally warmer and there will generally be more rain. There will surely be places where it will get worse and surely where it will be better (for example what if the Sahara gets green again? like 5-6 th. yrs ago, surely the people there will not be very unhappy about that...)
The net result of all these changes is not evident to me. Besides, i am quite sure (seeing technological change), that 50 yrs from now Co2 emissions will be a fraction of today and although the world of the future will surely be different (warmer and wetter) from today I do not think mankind will lose out.

You got any more of those rose colored glasses you could hand out?

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1655 on: June 18, 2019, 05:09:35 PM »
Warming Midwest Increases Likelihood Farmers Will Need to Irrigate
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-midwest-likelihood-farmers-irrigate.html

If current climate and crop-improvement trends continue into the future, Midwestern corn growers who today rely on rainfall to water their crops will need to irrigate their fields, a new study finds. This could draw down aquifers, disrupt streams and rivers, and set up conflicts between agricultural and other human and ecological needs for water, scientists say.

... "As the atmosphere warms, it dries, and so the draw for water to go from plants to the atmosphere increases," DeLucia said. "The ability of the atmosphere to draw water from plants is determined by its 'vapor pressure deficit.' Unlike relative humidity, vapor-pressure deficit has a simple nearly straight-line relationship to the rate of evapotranspiration and other measures of evaporation. ...

"If you add to this the decades-old trend toward bigger, more productive corn plants, you see an overall increase in water use and water loss through plant leaves—without comparable increases in rainfall to counter the deficit," he said.

Today, average corn yields across the Midwest are roughly 170 bushels per acre, DeLucia said. This is up from about 120 bushels per acre in 1990. "If this trend continues, the projected yield in 2050 would be 230-240 bushels per acre averaged across the Midwest," he said.

Precipitation is not expected to increase enough in the Midwest to compensate for the drying conditions of the warmer atmosphere, the researchers found. Even without increases in plant size and productivity, warming conditions alone will necessitate a much greater demand for water, the team found.

"We show that as vapor pressure deficit increases, maintaining current maize yields will require a large expansion of irrigation, greater than threefold, in areas currently supported by rain," the researchers wrote.

Quote
... "If you want more corn, then you have to have a bigger plant, and a bigger plant is going to use more water."

Open Source: Evan H. DeLucia, et.al, "Are we approaching a water ceiling to maize yields in the United States?" Ecosphere (2019)

--------------------------------

Researchers Study How Climate Change Affects Crops in India
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-climate-affects-crops-india.html

... in a paper published in Environmental Research Letters, Davis found that the yields from grains such as millet, sorghum, and maize are more resilient to extreme weather; their yields vary significantly less due to year-to-year changes in climate and generally experience smaller declines during droughts. But yields from rice, India's main crop, experience larger declines during extreme weather conditions. "By relying more and more on a single crop—rice—India's food supply is potentially vulnerable to the effects of varying climate," said Davis, the lead author on the paper, "Sensitivity of Grain Yields to Historical Climate Sensitivity in India," which has four co-authors, all of whom collaborated on the research.

Kyle Frankel Davis et al. Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India, Environmental Research Letters (2019).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 06:08:42 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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bligh8

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1657 on: June 20, 2019, 02:51:18 PM »

June 17, 2019
Climate change threatens commercial fishers from Maine to North Carolina

"Some communities like Portland, Maine, are on track to lose out, while others like Mattituck, New York, or Sandwich, Massachusetts, may do better as waters warm," said senior author Malin Pinsky, an associate professor in the Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. "Adapting to climate change for many communities will require fundamentally new approaches to fishing. Change has become the new normal."

"For 24 of 33 species studied, habitat was projected to improve in some Northeast regions and deteriorate in others by 2040 to 2050."

"Sixty-four of the 85 communities are projected to face increased risk (fewer fish resources due to changes in habitat) by 2050, suggesting declines in fishing options if current practices continue. Communities of small trawlers in Maine faced the most risk because of their historical dependence on species, such as Atlantic cod and witch flounder, that are expected to lose suitable habitats."

For communities, adaptation will likely require shifting where fishing vessels go to follow their target species or focusing on "winner" species versus losers, the study says.

Twenty yrs ago I could run offshore during the night and catch 30/40 lbs of Whiting, supplementing family diet.  5 yrs ago someone caught one whiting and it made the front page of the local rag.  They say the New England big Rigs came down and caught them all.

bligh

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1658 on: June 20, 2019, 04:05:08 PM »
I am afraid that the baseline might be shifting to fast for these kinds of local forecasts to be accurate.

It would have helped to have the link in there bligh8.  ;)
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bligh8

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1659 on: June 20, 2019, 04:12:46 PM »
Sorry Kassy… https://www.eurasiareview.com/18062019-climate-change-threatens-commercial-fishers-from-maine-to-north-carolina/

My brain is soggy from all the gd rain .. It's been raining for 3 days, it's raining now

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1660 on: June 23, 2019, 07:36:41 AM »
Persistent rains have severely affected the heart of America's corn and soy country. While 96% of the land is now planted, it was so late that it is possible some crops won't mature until the first frosts come in fall. In addition, some of the land planted was only planted so farmers could be eligible for crop insurance. For those with successful crops, prices are expected to be strong...but not as strong as in 2013 after the even more disastrous 2012 season. Hmmm, bad year in the Arctic, bad year in the mid west? Coincidence or correlation? If correlation, the future does not look bright for heartland farmers.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/23/america-corn-belt-farmers-markets-prices?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

bbr2314

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1661 on: June 23, 2019, 04:17:51 PM »
Persistent rains have severely affected the heart of America's corn and soy country. While 96% of the land is now planted, it was so late that it is possible some crops won't mature until the first frosts come in fall. In addition, some of the land planted was only planted so farmers could be eligible for crop insurance. For those with successful crops, prices are expected to be strong...but not as strong as in 2013 after the even more disastrous 2012 season. Hmmm, bad year in the Arctic, bad year in the mid west? Coincidence or correlation? If correlation, the future does not look bright for heartland farmers.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/23/america-corn-belt-farmers-markets-prices?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco
Imagine we see worst-ever / top 3 minimum in the Arctic this year, and we then manage a winter / spring even more severe than 2018-19 in the "cold-er-ing" triangle between Rockies HB and GL containing the grain belt etc. I don't think it is very hard to imagine at all, and it is only a matter of time to when such a multi-year impact will occur. Question is, does it happen this year, or do we wait until the mid-2020s?

Shared Humanity

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1662 on: June 24, 2019, 03:23:32 AM »
Persistent rains have severely affected the heart of America's corn and soy country. While 96% of the land is now planted, it was so late that it is possible some crops won't mature until the first frosts come in fall. In addition, some of the land planted was only planted so farmers could be eligible for crop insurance. For those with successful crops, prices are expected to be strong...but not as strong as in 2013 after the even more disastrous 2012 season. Hmmm, bad year in the Arctic, bad year in the mid west? Coincidence or correlation? If correlation, the future does not look bright for heartland farmers.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/23/america-corn-belt-farmers-markets-prices?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco
Imagine we see worst-ever / top 3 minimum in the Arctic this year, and we then manage a winter / spring even more severe than 2018-19 in the "cold-er-ing" triangle between Rockies HB and GL containing the grain belt etc. I don't think it is very hard to imagine at all, and it is only a matter of time to when such a multi-year impact will occur. Question is, does it happen this year, or do we wait until the mid-2020s?

NEW IA?

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1663 on: June 24, 2019, 01:49:56 PM »
More like repeated bad harvests i think.

This is something that interests me. I wonder if the stuck weather will gives use more W-Europe dry summers like last year or repeat flooding in Corn and Soy County.

The base set up with ice only on the canadian side of the arctic at the end of the season should repeat which could lead to similar years.
 
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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1664 on: June 24, 2019, 03:14:28 PM »
Scientists Develop Climate-Ready Wheat that can Survive Drought Conditions 
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-scientists-climate-ready-wheat-survive-drought.html

Scientists at the University of Sheffield's Institute for Sustainable Food found that engineering bread wheat to have fewer stomata helps the crop to use water more efficiently, while maintaining yields.

In drought conditions, wheat plants normally close their stomata to slow down water loss—but wheat with fewer stomata has been found to conserve water even better, and can use that water to cool itself.

During the study, published in the Journal of Experimental Botany, the scientists grew wheat in conditions similar to those expected under climate breakdown—with higher levels of carbon dioxide and less water. Compared to conventional wheat, the engineered plants used less water while maintaining photosynthesis and yield.

The research builds on the Institute for Sustainable Food's work to develop climate-ready rice, which found that rice with fewer stomata used 40 percent less water than conventional breeds and was able to survive drought and temperatures of 40C.

In a separate study published in Plant, Cell and Environment, scientists at the Institute also found that plants engineered to have fewer stomata are less susceptible to diseases. They hope to be able to replicate these findings in crops such as wheat and rice.

Open Access: Jessica Dunn et al. Reduced stomatal density in bread wheat leads to increased water-use efficiency, Journal of Experimental Botany (2019)

Christian Dutton et al. Bacterial infection systemically suppresses stomatal density, Plant, Cell & Environment (2019)

----------------

Now all it has to survive is hurricane-force winds, 30 inches of rain, and tennis ball-size hail
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1665 on: June 24, 2019, 06:47:34 PM »
Agriculture Department buries studies showing dangers of climate change:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/23/agriculture-department-climate-change-1376413
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Archimid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1666 on: June 28, 2019, 02:23:40 PM »
I'm convinced that the strategy that the brave men and women of the Trump administration against climate change is that climate change is too scary for the public to know about it, thus they will suppress all the science they can to keep the people calmed. When the time comes the government will protect the people.


Of course, that is complete and utter bullshit. When the time comes government will not be able to protect people because they chose to blind themselves. Not only that, they are robbing the people from the opportunity and right to prepare.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1667 on: June 29, 2019, 06:56:58 PM »
U.S. Corn Crop Could Be Smallest Since 2012 Drought
https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/us-corn-crop-could-be-smallest-since-2012-drought

Based on surveys conducted ahead of USDA reports due for release today, analysts say corn plantings will total 86.7 to 87 million acres after a rainy and cold spring. That would be well below the 92.8 million acres that farmers had planned to seed. The 6% downturn in plantings could mean the smallest harvest since drought shriveled fields in 2012, assuming normal weather and yields.

The International Grains Council lowered its forecast for the global corn crop by 2% on Thursday, noting “a difficult start to the growing season for U.S. maize.” Indigo Ag, based in Memphis, Tennessee, said its crop health index for corn, based on satellite imagery, “is significantly below 2018 levels and is ranking below 2012’s historically poor corn harvest.”

Analysts have said there could be a spike in prevented-planting land measuring in the millions of acres. The USDA’s annual Acreage Report, due for release today at noon (EDT), is expected to provide clarity. The USDA surveys tens of thousands of growers during the first two weeks of June for the report.

In a normal year, harvested corn acreage is roughly 8% smaller than planted acreage. The USDA has projected a corn yield of 166 bushels an acre. When those factors are combined with analysts’ estimates of corn plantings, they suggest a harvest of 13.2 to 13.3 billion bushels, which would be the smallest total since 2012’s 10.78 billion bushels.

-----------------------------------

Droughts May Behave Like Dominos: Stanford Study
http://waterinthewest.stanford.edu/news-events/news-insights/domino-droughts

As the United States moves into the summer months, a recent study examines whether a drought in California can be linked to one in the Midwest. The Stanford-led study published in Geophysical Research Letters finds that regions may fall victim to water scarcity like dominos across the nation, the university news service reported.

"We know droughts can travel thousands of miles across continents, but it has not been clear exactly how," said lead author Julio E. Herrera Estrada, a postdoctoral scholar with the Stanford Water in the West program and the Stanford Department of Earth System Science.

In this study, researchers looked at how decreased moisture from this process amplified the 2012 drought in the Midwest, which resulted in losses of over $33 billion.

Like most of the nation, the Midwest relies on moisture imported from other regions. When a drought occurred in the western United States that same year, it resulted in less evaporation and drier air.

The study found that the Midwest eventually recovered from drought when more moisture was imported directly from the ocean. The cycle restarts the process in the region.

"We show that multiple droughts over a continent may not necessarily be a coincidence," Herrera Estrada said.



Julio E. Herrera‐Estrada, et.al., Reduced Moisture Transport Linked to Drought Propagation Across North America, Geophysical Research Letters, 24 April 2019
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1668 on: June 29, 2019, 11:50:22 PM »
This is a headscratcher: USDA now says "U.S. farmers planted more corn than expected "

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usda-crops-idUSKCN1TT2GN

I suspect it is because farmers are planting in waterlogged soil, and a lot of those wont sprout, will rot in the fields. But they have to plant to qualify for crop insurance.

sidd

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1669 on: July 01, 2019, 06:08:42 PM »
Illinois Farmers Give Up On Planting After Floods, Throw Party Instead
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-planting/illinois-farmers-give-up-on-planting-after-floods-throw-party-instead-idUSKCN1TH0BQ

James McCune, a farmer from Mineral, Illinois, was unable to plant 85% of his intended corn acres and wanted to commiserate with his fellow farmers by hosting the “Prevent Plant Party” at The Happy Spot. He invited them to swap stories while tucking in to fried chicken and a keg of beer in Deer Grove, a village of about 50 people located 120 miles (193 km) west of Chicago.

... Nationwide, farmers are expected to harvest the smallest corn crop in four years, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The agency last week reduced its planting estimate by 3.2% from May and its yield estimate by 5.7%.

Farmers think more cuts are likely as the late-planted crop could face damage from hot summer weather and an autumn frost.

An early frost will turn this world upside down,” Rock Katschnig, a farmer from Prophetstown, Illinois, said at the party.

... The U.S. government announced a $16 billion aid package to help farmers hurt by reduced sales to China - but only those who manage to plant a crop are eligible for payments.

--------------------------

Using Corn as a Cover Crop
https://www.ocj.com/2019/07/using-corn-as-a-cover-crop/

Based on information from across the Corn Belt, including states where they have more experience with delayed planting of corn (University of Wisconsin – http://wisccorn.blogspot.com/2019/06/B102.html) and Iowa State University – https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/cropnews/2019/05/cover-crop-options-prevented-planting-fields), these are our best recommendations for using corn as a cover crop.

Although the yield potential of corn planted in July for grain and silage is very low, corn makes an excellent “emergency” forage when planted in July. Moreover, unlike some other forage crops, Ohio producers know how to grow it. We also are aware of limited seed supply for several alternatives that typically could be used. Farmers should consult with their insurance agent to see if harvesting as forage will affect any current or future insurance payments on prevented plant acres.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1670 on: July 02, 2019, 07:05:07 PM »
Longer Summer Dry Season Observed in Congo Rainforest
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-longer-summer-season-congo-rainforest.html

A recently documented long-term drying trend over the Congo Basin could have important implications on the future of the world's second largest rainforest, according to a study published today in Nature Climate Change

Researchers, analyzed multiple independent precipitation and satellite-derived vegetation datasets to determine that the central African rainforest is experiencing a widespread, longer dry season during the boreal summer (June to August). The length has increased between 6.4 to 10.4 days per decade from 1988 to 2013.

According to the study, dry season length strongly influences tropical rainforest vegetation structure and composition and is largely determined by precipitation patterns. Any large changes in rainfall seasonality that modifies the Congo's dry season length and intensity can influence the tropical rainforest's photosynthesis and productivity.

... "Dry season length is one of the most crucial climate limitations for sustaining a rainforest," said Zhou, a professor in the University's Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences (DAES). "If the lengthening dry season continues, the Congo's evergreen forest could be substituted by drought tolerant species such as savannas or woody grasslands favoring drier conditions."

"On a larger scale, these changes could also accelerate global warming, as the Congo serves as a carbon sink, absorbing CO2 emissions from the atmosphere," he added.




... Over the Amazon, a longer dry season has also been observed. Three major short-term droughts, in 2005, 2010 and 2016, caused decreases in the region's water level and forest photosynthetic capacity.

"It is amazing to observe similar changes in dry season over the Congo and Amazon. We hypothesize that there may be some connection, for precipitation in these regions are all sensitive to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations," Jiang said. "However, this needs to be further studied and verified."

Yan Jiang et al. Widespread increase of boreal summer dry season length over the Congo rainforest, Nature Climate Change (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bligh8

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1671 on: July 06, 2019, 07:34:11 PM »
Synchronous crop failures and climate-forced production variability
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/7/eaaw1976

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw1976 .. Science Advances  03 Jul 2019:

Abstract
Large-scale modes of climate variability can force widespread crop yield anomalies and are therefore often presented as a risk to food security. We quantify how modes of climate variability contribute to crop production variance. We find that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) together account for 18, 7, and 6% of globally aggregated maize, soybean, and wheat production variability, respectively. The lower fractions of global-scale soybean and wheat production variability result from substantial but offsetting climate-forced production anomalies. All climate modes are important in at least one region studied. In 1983, ENSO, the only mode capable of forcing globally synchronous crop failures, was responsible for the largest synchronous crop failure in the modern historical record. Our results provide the basis for monitoring, and potentially predicting, simultaneous crop failures.




INTRODUCTION
"Rapid increases in agricultural trade have notably changed the character of the global food production system in recent decades. The fraction of food produced for human consumption that is traded internationally rose from 15% in 1986 to 23% in 2009 (1). While fewer people than ever before have inadequate access to a sufficient quantity of food, an increasing number of people are dependent on imported food to meet daily minimum caloric needs"

much more within the article

RESULTS
Climate modes
To identify how climate modes influence global crop yields, we perform a maximum covariance analysis (MCA) of the coupled modes of variability between climate and crop yields (see Materials and Methods). The first two global modes correspond to an ENSO life cycle (fig. S1); the first (second) time expansion coefficient of the sea surface temperature (SST) mode is significantly correlated with September, October, and November [March, April, and May (MAM)] Niño 3.4 index at r = −0.98 (r = 0.90). Regional analyses for the North Atlantic, Indian Ocean, and tropical Atlantic reveal climate modes that are significantly correlated with the December, January, and February (DJF) station-based North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, July, August, and September (JAS) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode index, April, May, and June (AMJ) tropical South Atlantic index, and AMJ tropical North Atlantic index (r = 0.89, −0.7, −0.75, and 0.81, respectively). The patterns of climate variability resulting from a partial regression using the climate time expansion coefficient (Figs. 1 and 2; Ak in Eq. 2) closely resemble the patterns obtained by creating positive minus negative phase composites for each variable (not shown), which confirms that the modes that we identify capture relevant large-scale climate teleconnections. To discuss the causal pathway between each climate mode and its crop yield teleconnections, we adopt a region-by-region approach.

Global analysis
When considering all growing regions, climate modes account for 23, 17, and 15% of local maize, wheat, and soybean production variability (Fig. 4, A, C, and E; see Eq. 4 in Materials and Methods). According to past estimates (8), climate-related stresses (i.e., both weather- and climate mode–related) account for 32 to 39% of global wheat, soybean, and maize yield variability. Climate modes and weather, therefore, contribute roughly equally (∼15 to 20%) to the overall climate-related crop yield variance.
much more within the article
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 07:40:58 PM by bligh8 »

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1672 on: July 08, 2019, 11:36:53 PM »
One Climate Crisis Disaster Happening Every Week, UN Warns
https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/07/one-climate-crisis-disaster-happening-every-week-un-warns.html



(The Guardian) – Climate crisis disasters are happening at the rate of one a week, though most draw little international attention and work is urgently needed to prepare developing countries for the profound impacts, the UN has warned.

Catastrophes such as cyclones Idai and Kenneth in Mozambique and the drought afflicting India make headlines around the world. But large numbers of “lower impact events” that are causing death, displacement and suffering are occurring much faster than predicted, said Mami Mizutori, the UN secretary-general’s special representative on disaster risk reduction. “This is not about the future, this is about today.”

This means that adapting to the climate crisis could no longer be seen as a long-term problem, but one that needed investment now, she said. “People need to talk more about adaptation and resilience.”

Estimates put the cost of climate-related disasters at $520bn a year, while the additional cost of building infrastructure that is resistant to the effects of global heating is only about 3%, or $2.7tn in total over the next 20 years.

... “We talk about a climate emergency and a climate crisis, but if we cannot confront this [issue of adapting to the effects] we will not survive,” she told the Guardian. “We need to look at the risks of not investing in resilience.”
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Paddy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1673 on: July 09, 2019, 07:52:00 AM »
The food price index seems to have peaked for now: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1674 on: July 09, 2019, 08:27:46 AM »
Food prices were stable until the mid00s and then surged due to the boom in oil prices and China. Oil prices drove up costs (price of fuel and fertilizer goes up with oil) and the growth in emerging markets (especially China) increased demand. Increased demand led to increased supply via intensification of agriculture and land clearings (Brazil was the No1 culprit) for agribusiness. Then food prices collapsed as oil collapsed in 2015 (from above 100 dollars per barrel to 30) and they have been fairly stable since.

To forecast food prices we need to know 4 things: yields (can they still go up or will there be widescale failures?), demand, supply (more land clearings?), oil prices.

As for yields, Africa has great potential since their average  grain yields are 1-1,5 t/ha which could easily increase to 3-4 tons (this happened in SE Asia in the past 30-40 years so it is easy to replicate). Demand will grow continously but slowly as population increases. Supply: more land clearings everywhere, obviously. Oil prices: Anyone's guess but there is plenty of the stuff, fracking is in high gear so they should be stable.

I do not see why food prices should have a major move therefore, barring widescale crop failures...

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1675 on: July 09, 2019, 11:17:27 AM »
Quote
To forecast food prices we need to know 4 things: yields (can they still go up or will there be widescale failures?), demand, supply (more land clearings?), oil prices.

As for yields, Africa has great potential since their average  grain yields are 1-1,5 t/ha which could easily increase to 3-4 tons (this happened in SE Asia in the past 30-40 years so it is easy to replicate). Demand will grow continously but slowly as population increases. Supply: more land clearings everywhere, obviously. Oil prices: Anyone's guess but there is plenty of the stuff, fracking is in high gear so they should be stable.

A few quibbles:
- The approximately 1% increase in population per year is not the only factor affecting demand. Individual average intake worldwide has also increased somewhat, both of food in general and of meat in particular, and can be expected to go on rising with increasing prosperity in low to middle income countries. And increased meat demand places a lot of demand on crops used to feed livestock.
- There are other factors that may affect supply and yields. Land area for planting crops can be expected to be adversely affected by desertification, general construction and sea level rise; yields by soil degradation, water shortages and general climate instability. On the other hand, there may be some increased land available at the polar extremes due to rising temperatures and retreat of permafrost, but with only a fairly short growing season.
- Oil prices would indeed be a anybody's guess. In the long term, the only way is up as supply is ultimately limited; demand is currently still rising in spite of the rise in electric cars etc; but I'm not going to pretend to any foreknowledge of where this will be in 10 or 20 years.
- A further factor to consider is food waste; currently, an increasing proportion is going to waste worldwide, courtesy again of increasing prosperity in low to middle income countries and adoption of more western style diets https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-food-waste/global-food-waste-could-rise-by-a-third-by-2030-study-idUSKCN1L61YR; this may, however, also offer something of a stabilising factor, since if and when food prices do rise, wasting food becomes increasingly disincentivised.

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1676 on: July 09, 2019, 12:01:23 PM »
a stabilising factor, since if and when food prices do rise, wasting food becomes increasingly disincentivised.
If food prices rise, at some point the poor go hungry (and die). Since most people in the world are poor, is this a destabilising factor?
Many richer people think of the invisible poor people as just numbers.
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El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1677 on: July 09, 2019, 12:24:06 PM »
a stabilising factor, since if and when food prices do rise, wasting food becomes increasingly disincentivised.
If food prices rise, at some point the poor go hungry (and die). Since most people in the world are poor, is this a destabilising factor?
Many richer people think of the invisible poor people as just numbers.

Indeed. The Arab Spring was directly precipitated by a big jump in the price of wheat which led to falling living standards in countries that basically import all their wheat (see chart). After the 2008-9 crisis many countries had to stop food subsidies and that made the problem worse for the poor. The Arabs consume big quantities of wheat, the world's 2nd and 3rd biggest wheat importers are Egypt and Algeria despite not too big populations

By the way, the same thing led to the French Revolution as well...

...and the fall of the Soviet Union is due in a great part to the fall in oil prices (while grain prices stayed stable) as the Russians were importing wheat and exporting oil.

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1678 on: July 09, 2019, 05:03:07 PM »
a stabilising factor, since if and when food prices do rise, wasting food becomes increasingly disincentivised.
If food prices rise, at some point the poor go hungry (and die). Since most people in the world are poor, is this a destabilising factor?

That depends on if the rising prices exceed rising income.  Much of the decrease in hunger over the past decades has been due to a lower percentage of income needed to buy food.

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1679 on: July 09, 2019, 05:32:20 PM »
How Much Do Climate Fluctuations Matter for Global Crop Yields?
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-climate-fluctuations-global-crop-yields.html


Fig. 3 Local production variance associated with climate modes.
Harvested area of wheat, maize, and soybean with numbered boxes indicating regions for the variance analysis (A). Percent of national or subnational scale variance in each region for wheat (B), soybean (C), and maize (D) explained by the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), IOD, TAV, or NAO. The percent values on top of each bar indicate the total variance explained by modes of climate variability (ENSO + TAV + IOD + NAO).


The El Niño-Southern Oscillation has been responsible for widespread, simultaneous crop failures in recent history, according to a new study from researchers at Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and other partners. This finding runs counter to a central pillar of the global agriculture system, which assumes that crop failures in geographically distant breadbasket regions such as the United States, China and Argentina are unrelated. ...  The assumption until now has been that widespread crop failures would come from a set of random, adverse weather events, Anderson said.

"We found that ENSO can, and has, forced multiple breadbasket failures, including a significant one in 1983," said Anderson. "The problem with pooling our risk as a mitigating strategy is that it assumes failures are random. But we know that strong El Niño or La Niña events in effect organize which regions experience drought and extreme temperatures. For some crops, that reorganization forces poor yields in multiple major production regions simultaneously."

Quote
... "The bigger the uncertainty around climate drivers, the bigger the risk for those involved in the food systems"

The authors found that, on a global level, corn is the most susceptible to such crop failures.

They found that 18% percent of the year-to-year changes in corn production were the result of climate variability.


1 out of 6 = ~18%

Soybeans and wheat were found to be less at risk for simultaneous failures, with climate variability accounting for 7% and 6% of the changes in global production, respectively.

... "ENSO may not be important in all years, but it is the only thing we know of that has forced simultaneous global-scale crop failures" said Anderson.

Open Access: W. B. Anderson et al, Synchronous crop failures and climate-forced production variability, Science Advances (2019).

----------------------------

Climate Change is Affecting Crop Yields and Reducing Global Food Supplies
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-climate-affecting-crop-yields-global.html

A team of researchers led by the University of Minnesota's Institute on the Environment spent four years collecting information on crop productivity from around the world. We focused on the top 10 global crops that provide the bulk of consumable food calories: Maize (corn), rice, wheat, soybeans, oil palm, sugarcane, barley, rapeseed (canola), cassava and sorghum. Roughly 83 percent of consumable food calories come from just these 10 sources. Other than cassava and oil palm, all are important U.S. crops.

...Our analysis showed that climate change has already affected crop yields around the world. There were variations between locations and among crops, but when all of these different results were totaled, we found yields of some important global staples were already declining. For example, we estimated that climate change was reducing global rice yields by 0.3 percent and wheat yields by 0.9 percent on average each year.

And when we translated crop yields into consumable calories—the actual food on people's plates—we found that decreases in consumable food calories are already occurring in roughly half of the world's food insecure countries, which have high rates of undernourishment, child stunting and wasting, and mortality among children under age 5 due to lack of sufficient food. For example, in India annual food calories have declined by 0.8 percent annually and in Nepal they have fallen by 2.2 percent annually.

Reductions are also occurring in southern African countries, including Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. We even found losses in some rich industrialized nations, such as Australia, France and Germany.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 05:49:55 PM by vox_mundi »
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nanning

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1680 on: July 10, 2019, 04:54:31 AM »
Thanks El Cid and vox_mundi!
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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1682 on: July 13, 2019, 10:24:24 PM »
So the latest FAO state of food security annual report should be coming out on Monday. Should be worth a look, eg to see whether world hunger is continuing to climb etc http://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/en/

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1683 on: July 15, 2019, 06:37:50 PM »
Said report has now come out: http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition/en/

Worldwide, the proportion of undernourished people is static compared to last year, at 10.8% of the population (820 milliom people in total). At the same time as so many go hungry, obesity is also on the rise worldwide (as precisely no-one will be surprised to hear). There is some good news elsewhere in the report, however, such as a decline in the proportion of children who are stunted in growth due to malnutrition.

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1685 on: July 16, 2019, 03:54:53 PM »
Didn't see a "water shortage" thread, so I'll put this here if that's alright...Zimbabwae's capital seems to be having major water problems, in part due to a drought:

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/07/15/two-million-zimbabwes-capital-no-water-city-turns-off-taps/

This, of course, comes on the heels of a similar crisis happening in the Chennai, India. Seems like 2019 might be the year where water shortages become a common occurrence in major cities. Very sad and frightening.

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1686 on: July 16, 2019, 04:47:51 PM »
Spike in cereal prices coming:
https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/climate-change-could-cause-29-spike-in-cereal-prices-leaked-un-report-119071500637_1.html

Of course a spike is coming and a fall afterwards and the next spike then. There will always be ups and downs in prices. 29% is basically nothing ,not to mention that they say that prices could rise by up to 29% by 2050 (not 2020, not 2030, but 30+ yrs out). That is ridiculous. Corn prices for example rose that much from May to June:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/corn.html

Grain prices can easily move 20-30% in either direction in any given year. And they often do. Corn prices fell 15% from last May to this May before the spike. Anyway if someone is convinced that food prices are about to rise than it is easy to make money on that: buy the futures and get wealthy!

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1687 on: July 16, 2019, 04:55:55 PM »
So, water shortages in India. What a new occurence.

Here is the list of famines , all caused by drought in India:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_major_famines_in_India_during_British_rule

a few examples:

1769-1770  Bengal, 10 mln dead
1783-84           11 mln dead
1791-92           11 mln dead "...In the next year, 1792-93, no rain fell till October, some people left the country and others died from want."
1876-78   5-10 million

The failure of monsoon has been a major threat in India for millenia. I don't know how climate change will change the monsoon and I guess noone does. But blaming every drought on climate change is not very scientific.

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1688 on: July 16, 2019, 05:16:53 PM »
In the short term, local emissions may have a bigger effect on monsoons than overall gw does.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/indias-monsoon-powerful-agent-climate-change/579940/

This seems to be a more general treatment of the subject, but I'm having trouble getting access to it: https://www.rmets.org/resource/indian-monsoon-changing-climate

The Indian Monsoon in a Changing Climate
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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1689 on: July 16, 2019, 05:48:16 PM »
I'm not claiming climate change is the only thing causing these city wide water shortages. However, it is likely playing a role, and combines with other issues of ecological mismanagement (being wasteful with resources, not planning for the future etc.) that are pretty central to the themes of this website IMO. You'll also note that my post wasn't about only India - the article was talking about a new crisis in Africa.

It seems to me that a few years ago we had "scares" of large urban water shortages. Specifically, in Cape Town and in Sao Paulo. Now these seem to be actually happening, with millions of people going without the most basic of needs. That's not a scientific opinion, but my anecdotal opinion from following the news. I'm open to admit that my bias is towards a prior of these types of crises getting worse as time goes on, at least for the near future. However, that prior is certainly backed by science.

In addition, India has seen historic heat waves this year. Take a look at this article discussing the extreme heat: https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2019-06-03-india-heat-wave-123-degrees-second-driest-pre-monsoon-since-1954 . That looks like a reasonable signal of climate change to me. It may not be certified scientific, but is it really that crazy to suggest gw is playing a role in these events?

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1690 on: July 16, 2019, 06:07:22 PM »
More co2 = more heat, so no question that india will see temperature records in the future. However, the real question is: how climate change will effect the monsoon. Because what really causes problems is the lack of rain (or too much/floods). I am not saying the AGW will not change the monsoon, I am just saying that I do not know how and when. And this is a pretty serious question, because India's food supply depends on the monsoon. And let's not forget that during the Holocene Optimum (just a few thousand years ago) we had a very strong African Monsoon that made the Sahara green (and we had much more rain in the Middle East as well!). So I am not sure that AGW will cause food shortage in india, although I think it is possible.

sinocentric

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1691 on: July 16, 2019, 08:46:45 PM »
I hear you. I agree that the total effect of AGW on the monsoons isn't clear right now. Regardless though, water shortages seem to be an increasing issue worldwide, and climate change likely is and is going to continue to play some role in that.

Is it a bad idea to discuss these events here, even if we are not certain how influenced by CC they are? I feel like it still fits under the general topic to an extent. On the other hand, I could see how it could be misleading.

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1692 on: July 16, 2019, 09:57:18 PM »
Is it a bad idea to discuss these events here, even if we are not certain how influenced by CC they are? I feel like it still fits under the general topic to an extent. On the other hand, I could see how it could be misleading.

I guess this is the topic for these discussions. My only problem was/is that any and everytime there is too little or too much rain, it is too cold ot it is too warm, is always blamed on CC although we know that we had huge swings in the past millenia and there are and always will be extreme weather events. As for CC there are (seemingly) obvious consequences, eg: there is generally going to be more rain worldwide, more energy in the atmosphere leading probably to stronger downpours/floods/tornadoes. Also, the Arctic is getting very warm, and NH midlatitudes are also getting significantly warmer. These things we know. However, anything beyond that is higly dependent on changes in atmospheric circulation and many other things, about which we can only speculate. For food/agriculture (and this thread is about that) the distribution of rain is of paramount importance but we know precious little about the future of these things...

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1693 on: July 17, 2019, 12:37:29 PM »
Interesting cherry.

Quote
1769-1770  Bengal, 10 mln dead
1783-84           11 mln dead
1791-92           11 mln dead "...In the next year, 1792-93, no rain fell till October, some people left the country and others died from want."
1876-78

Luckily during the 20th century India acquired technology and tremendous GDP growth like the rest of the world. According to your arguments for "not alarm", that technology and wealth likely decreased the frequency and severity of droughts during the 20th century.

I won't look it up, but if I'm correct in my reasons "for alarm" fatalities and severity of drought probably decreased during the 20th century even before adjusting for population growth. However in the 21st century the numbers are likely going down again, even with 21st century technology or at least improvement stopped and became more volatile. As the Arctic melts and the worlds climate goes to shit, numbers will revert to those of the past.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1694 on: July 17, 2019, 02:14:46 PM »

Luckily during the 20th century India acquired technology and tremendous GDP growth like the rest of the world. According to your arguments for "not alarm", that technology and wealth likely decreased the frequency and severity of droughts during the 20th century.

I won't look it up, but if I'm correct in my reasons "for alarm" fatalities and severity of drought probably decreased during the 20th century even before adjusting for population growth. However in the 21st century the numbers are likely going down again, even with 21st century technology or at least improvement stopped and became more volatile. As the Arctic melts and the worlds climate goes to shit, numbers will revert to those of the past.

Yes, by most accounts drought did decrease during the 20th century.  This paper in Nature shows the change since 1982, and how some regions experience opposite patterns.

https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata20141

Figure 5 shows the change since 1982.  It is not a major drop, but it is readily apparent from the graph.

The following paper details differences between drought hazard (possible occurrence of drought), drought exposure (area subjected to water stress), and drought vulnerability (exposure to adverse effects when impacted).  Drought risk is then a product of the hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, and is defined as the probability of resulting harmful consequences. 

As a whole, India has a very low drought hazard (although some areas on the western coast have a higher hazard).  Drought hazards are highest in the lower middle latitudes.  Drought exposure is elevated in Europe, the U.S., Nigeria, and eastern China, and very high throughout India.  Drought vulnerability is highest in sub-Sahara Africa, followed by regions of South America, central Asia, Indonesia, and India.  Consequently, drought risk is highest in India, and several countries of the disposed Soviet Union.  The risk is higher in India, not due to the actual occurrence of drought, but due to other agricultural, societal and economic factors.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300565

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1695 on: July 17, 2019, 03:32:14 PM »
repost from 866 of Place becoming less liveable thread.

‘We are currently in a low rainfall epoch and can expect more below-normal monsoons for next few years’


...

The monsoon is a very robust system. If you take the last 150 years of observation data, you find that monsoon has not changed much in terms of all-India average rainfall. But there are regional changes. For example, Chhattisgarh and parts of Odisha are getting less rain whereas Maharashtra, parts of Karnataka, Gujarat, J&K and some other places are getting more rainfall.

Monsoon also has a large multi-decadal oscillation that’s well proven. This cycle spans around 60 years encompassing epochs of low and high rainfall. In some decades you will have more droughts. We are currently in a low epoch and can expect more below-normal monsoons for the next few years. Monsoons in the 1990s were good. But 2000 onwards, it again started going down. We have had drought years in 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2016.

In the coming years, how is global warming expected to impact the monsoon?

The total quantum of rainfall is not expected to change. During the 122 days of the monsoon season, we do not have rain all the time. Monsoon goes through active and break spells. What we have found is that the length of the dry spells is increasing. So, instead of eight days of dry weather, we may have ten days in future. And since the total quantum of rainfall is not changing much, this means that when it rains, it rains very heavily. The number of rainy days may reduce.

This finding is very robust and has implications for agriculture. Farmers will have to think of storing water in tanks, ponds, etc during rainy spells and use this water during the dry periods.

IMD’s monsoon forecasts over the past five years have been consistently more optimistic than actual rainfall. Does it have a positive bias?

I’m not sure about the bias. Being a statistical model, there will be a bias. But whether it is positive or negative, I can’t say.

...

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/earthshastra/we-are-currently-in-a-low-rainfall-epoch-and-can-expect-more-below-normal-monsoons-for-next-few-years/
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1696 on: July 17, 2019, 06:09:50 PM »
Yeah, yeah, yeah, he's a doomer. But I doubt he photoshopped the images or fabricated the quotes, so I think he has a point:
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/so-it-begins-due-to-a-poor-harvest-season-we-are-experiencing-shortages-on-many-of-our-canned-vegetable-items

How to feed the world in 2050:
https://www.fastcompany.com/90377232/this-22-part-plan-is-how-can-we-feed-the-world-by-2050

He is an alarmist, but he is talking about how crop production is already dropping from AGW:
« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 10:49:04 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

bluice

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1697 on: July 18, 2019, 08:13:46 PM »
I think it will be the everchanging conditions that will get us. A farmer would be able to adapt to a new kind of climate but cannot do anything when his local climate just keeps on changing. There won’t be a new equilibrium as we are moving along the RCP 8.5 pathway, and eventually nobody knows whether the next growing season will bring flood, drought, hot, cold or perhaps a new pest.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1698 on: July 18, 2019, 08:18:44 PM »
I think it will be the everchanging conditions that will get us. A farmer would be able to adapt to a new kind of climate but cannot do anything when his local climate just keeps on changing. There won’t be a new equilibrium as we are moving along the RCP 8.5 pathway, and eventually nobody knows whether the next growing season will bring flood, drought, hot, cold or perhaps a new pest.
How would that be different from today?

bluice

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1699 on: July 18, 2019, 08:36:20 PM »
I think it will be the everchanging conditions that will get us. A farmer would be able to adapt to a new kind of climate but cannot do anything when his local climate just keeps on changing. There won’t be a new equilibrium as we are moving along the RCP 8.5 pathway, and eventually nobody knows whether the next growing season will bring flood, drought, hot, cold or perhaps a new pest.
How would that be different from today?
You mean how unstable and unpredictable climate is different from the one we are used to?

Well, even now production will suffer when weather departs too much from the average of that given location. However we are quickly entering a world where weather is not just unusual but unprecedented for that location. As this happens globally crops will fail around the world diminishing surpluses and increasing prices. The poor will starve and the mid-income cause unrest.
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