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Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1950 on: February 15, 2020, 08:36:33 PM »
Plastic bags can still be used for a few things like uncooked meat, fish, and poultry.

NY's plastic bag ban is coming: Here's what to know about the stores, the charges and the changes
https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/2020/02/04/nys-plastic-bag-ban-coming-heres-what-you-need-know/2854333001/
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be cause

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1951 on: February 15, 2020, 09:34:28 PM »
with locusts spread from India to Tanzania breeding by the billion almost certainly creating shortages of food wherever they go , another apocalyptic saga is unfolding . 2020 is fast becoming a year for the history books .. if there is a 'his' story , what with covid19 selecting the older male as preferred victim .

 A large proportion of local chicken produce here in N.I. heads by freezer container to China . Unloading appears to have ground to a halt and there is no methodology for storing surplus containers . as anticipated , shipping is quietly grinding to a halt . Anyone need a few million chicken feet ? weekly ?
 We feared brexit .. this virus makes brexit look like light relief .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1952 on: February 15, 2020, 10:48:28 PM »
be cause:
And don’t forget the virus that has already killed half of China’s pigs.
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Alexander555

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1953 on: February 15, 2020, 11:44:13 PM »
Until a couple years ago, we had no tick bites in winter. And now we have them every month of the year. I would think that's because of the soft winters. And when you read something about these viruses, the name "tick" shows up many times. So that's probably not a good evolution.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1954 on: February 16, 2020, 06:02:25 PM »
Explain to me how something that has occurred throughout history (locust plagues) can suddenly be blamed on climate change.

Actually, if you would simply read some of the linked articles, you would have your explanation.

The insects behind the mayhem are desert locusts, which, despite their name, thrive following periods of heavy rainfall that trigger blooms of vegetation across their normally arid habitats in Africa and the Middle East. Experts say a prolonged bout of exceptionally wet weather, including several rare cyclones that struck eastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula over the last 18 months, are the primary culprit. The recent storminess, in turn, is related to the the Indian Ocean Dipole, an ocean temperature gradient that was recently extremely pronounced, something that’s also been linked to the devastating bushfires in eastern Australia.

Unfortunately, some experts say it may be a harbinger of things to come as rising sea surface temperatures supercharge storms and climate change tips the scales in favor of circulation patterns like the one that set the stage for this year’s trans-oceanic disasters.

“If we see this continued increase in the frequency of cyclones,” says Keith Cressman, senior locust forecasting officer with the Food and Agriculture Organization, “I think we can assume there will be more locust outbreaks and upsurges in the Horn of Africa.”

Shared Humanity

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1955 on: February 16, 2020, 06:08:38 PM »
Plastic bags can still be used for a few things like uncooked meat, fish, and poultry.

NY's plastic bag ban is coming: Here's what to know about the stores, the charges and the changes
https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/2020/02/04/nys-plastic-bag-ban-coming-heres-what-you-need-know/2854333001/

How did we survive before plastic bags? I'm old enough to remember fresh meat being wrapped in wax coated paper.

Plastic bags are simply in existence to support our hormone and antibiotic infused, nondiverse, factory farmed, meat products.

And I use the term "meat products" intentionally as the chicken you find in your local supermarket has little in common with a healthy chicken.

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1956 on: February 19, 2020, 12:38:18 AM »
Hundreds of Thousands of Mussels Cooked to Death on New Zealand Beach in Heatwave
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/hundreds-of-thousands-of-mussels-cooked-to-death-on-new-zealand-beach-in-heatwave

Hundreds of thousands of mussels have been cooked to death on a beach in New Zealand’s North Island, with experts saying more will die as the effects of the climate crisis accelerate.

The mass die-off in Northland was sparked by “an exceptional period of warm weather” combined with low tides in the middle of the day, which had exposed the shellfish, said Dr Andrew Jeffs, a marine scientist from the University of Auckland.

... Northland is experiencing drought conditions, with many parts of the region not seeing rain for a record-breaking 40 plus days. The effects of the drought have been severe, with Kiwi birds perishing as they search for water, and tankers of freshwater urgently trucked in to fill rainwater tanks in remote communities.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1957 on: February 19, 2020, 07:33:16 PM »
Burger King Flaunts Moldy Whopper in Preservative-Free Ad Campaign
The fast-food chain's fresh approach to promoting its most famous burger is grabbing headlines.
Quote
Restaurant Brands International's (NYSE:QSR) Burger King is going to great lengths to highlight its signature Whopper's freshness -- by demonstrating that it can rot. The company released an ad on Wednesday that shows the time-lapsed aging of a preservative-free Whopper across 34 days, tracking the burger's journey from freshly made to moldy.
...

...the advertisement was probably intended to reference widely circulated photos of food from McDonald's and other restaurants that appears not to age much over long periods of time.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/19/burger-king-flaunts-moldy-whopper-in-preservative.aspx
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1958 on: February 20, 2020, 01:36:18 PM »
Drought slashes Australian crop output to record low
https://news.yahoo.com/drought-slashes-australian-crop-output-record-low-053010236.html
Quote
The country's agriculture department said it expects production of crops like sorghum, cotton and rice to fall 66 percent -- the lowest levels since records began in 1980-81.

"It is the lowest summer crop production in this period by a large margin," Peter Collins, a senior economist with the department's statistical body ABARES told AFP.
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kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1959 on: February 20, 2020, 03:42:21 PM »
Great Barrier Reef on brink of third major coral bleaching in five years, scientists warn

If ocean temperatures don’t drop in the next two weeks, heat stress could tip reef over into another widespread event

The Great Barrier Reef could be heading for a third major coral bleaching outbreak in the space of five years if high ocean temperatures in the region do not drop in the next two weeks, scientists and conservationists have warned.

...

Sea surface temperatures (SST) are already more than 1.5C above average across large areas of the reef, with a month remaining until temperatures usually peak.

Across about two thirds of the reef – from Port Douglas south – SST were between 2C and 3C above average.

Coral bleaching is a stress reaction caused when corals spend long periods in warmer than average water. The algae that provides food and the coral’s colour separates from the animal.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/20/great-barrier-reef-on-brink-of-third-major-coral-bleaching-in-five-years-scientists-warn
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sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1960 on: February 21, 2020, 09:06:16 AM »
Blowing in the wind: cattle shit in the air.

Collins at texasobserver on feedlots and feces. In your lungs.

https://www.texasobserver.org/cafos-panhandle-tceq/

Apart from the obscenity of cattle torture in feedlots ...

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1961 on: February 22, 2020, 05:39:56 PM »
“Agrivoltaics”

Family Farms Try to Raise a New Cash Cow: Solar Power
Quote
Proponents say that this approach could allow for widespread renewable energy development without displacing much-needed land for food. Recent studies suggest that it could lead to more efficient energy and crop production by creating a cooler, moister microclimate.

In a recent test in Arizona, scientists compared crops planted under solar panels with those grown in direct sunlight. They found that total fruit production for red chiltepin peppers was three times higher on the plots under the panels, and cherry tomatoes doubled production. Some of these plants used significantly less irrigation water, in part because the shaded soil retained more moisture. Solar panels placed with plants were also substantially cooler during the day — and therefore operated more efficiently — than the usual ground-mounted arrays, according to the study last year by NREL and the Universities of Arizona and Maryland.

A project in South Deerfield, Massachusetts, delivered similarly promising results. Early field tests showed that Swiss chard, broccoli, and similar vegetables produced about 60 percent more volume compared to plants beneath a full sun.

“We have this vision of solar panels out in the desert, in these really open arid areas,” Higgins said. But solar panels are most efficient in climates with plenty of sun and moderate temperatures. Extreme heat can overtax the panels and result in lower electricity production. The same is true for plants. ...
https://www.wired.com/story/family-farms-try-to-raise-a-new-cash-cow-solar-power/
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sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1962 on: February 23, 2020, 12:04:22 AM »
Nice. I got to get this to my Amish buddies with three acres of solar. He's using grass as cover and sheep for grazing right now.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1963 on: February 23, 2020, 08:42:31 PM »
U.S.

Congressional Democrats Join the Debate Over Plastics’ Booming Future
Quote
The bill would:
• Require producers of packaging and containers to design, manage and finance programs to collect and process product waste. Normally, the collection and recycling of plastic waste fall on state and local governments.
• Establish a 10-cent national refund program for all beverage containers, regardless of material. The industry has aggressively fought these so-called "bottle bills," and only 10 states have deposit-refund systems for beverage containers.
• Phase out some of the most common, single-use plastic products, such as lightweight plastic carryout bags, polystyrene plates or cups, plastic stirrers and plastic utensils.
• Establish minimum recycled content requirements for allowed beverage containers, packaging and food-service products, to help create a market for recycling.

Recycling has now become largely uneconomical, thanks to China's rejection of plastic waste from the United States and a glut of cheap natural gas that makes it more cost effective to make new plastic products, as opposed to recycling old ones. As a result, communities across the United States have been paring back expensive recycling programs.
...
A moratorium would hold off development of the plastics manufacturing hub in Appalachia and stall plant expansions in the nation's primary petrochemical production area along the Gulf Coast, while scientists studied the impacts in both regions. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19022020/petrochemical-plant-shell-plastics-ohio-river
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kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1964 on: February 27, 2020, 02:03:59 PM »
Climate Change is Pushing Giant Ocean Currents Poleward

....

The world's major wind-driven ocean currents are moving toward the poles at a rate of about a mile every two years, potentially depriving important coastal fishing waters of important nutrients and raising the risk of sea level rise, extreme storms and heatwaves for some adjacent land areas.

The shift was identified in a new study by researchers with the Alfred Wegener Institute at the Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) in Bremerhaven, Germany, and published Feb. 25 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The poleward shift is bad news for the East Coast of the U.S., because it makes sea level rise even worse, the researchers said. At about 40 degrees latitude north and south, where the effects of the shifting currents are most evident, sea level rise is already 8 to 12 inches more than in other regions, said lead author Hu Yang, a climate researcher with AWI.

...

Some of the currents run close to densely populated areas, including coastal China and Japan, Argentina and eastern Australia, and the impacts of the changes will be felt strongly in those areas, Yang said.

At their western edge, the gyres move warmth and moisture from the tropics to higher latitudes, which affects air temperature and rainfall. The shift is likely to drive more extreme heatwaves in many subtropical regions, as warmer water and air from the tropics surge poleward.

The study suggests ocean current shifts will squeeze commercially important fisheries especially in the Pacific Ocean.

...

A fisheries decline in the South Atlantic off the coast of Argentina documented as long as 10 years ago may also be linked with the southward shift of one of the gyres, the Brazil Current, shown by the new study, because it reduces the near-coast upward surge of nutrient-rich colder water that sustains abundant fisheries.

...

Evidence from the Paleolithic period supports the idea that ocean currents can change positions rapidly during times of climate change. Sediment deposits on the ocean floor show that, during the last ice age, the Agulhas Current, flowing south along the east coast of Africa, was 800 kilometers from its modern position, a monumental shift of seven degrees latitude.

Ocean currents also distribute the eggs and larvae of marine organisms over wide areas, so the shift of the gyres is likely to affect the distribution of many species.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26022020/climate-oceans-weather-fishing-gyres-gulf-stream-sea%20level
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1965 on: February 29, 2020, 03:49:40 AM »
Running out of time: East Africa faces new locust threat
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-locusts/running-out-of-time-east-africa-faces-new-locust-threat-idUSKCN20L1TY
Quote
Countries in East Africa are racing against time to prevent new swarms of locusts wreaking havoc with crops and livelihoods after the worst infestation in generations.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1966 on: March 01, 2020, 08:37:36 PM »
Oh dear, Global heating even affecting the production of booze....

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/01/warm-winter-puts-paid-to-german-ice-wine-production
Warm winter puts paid to German ice wine production
Temperatures have not fallen far enough for grapes to freeze on the vine as process requires
Quote
A warm winter means that for the first time in years Germany’s vineyards will produce no ice wine, an expensive golden nectar made from grapes left to freeze on the vine.

The German Wine Institute said on Sunday that temperatures had not dropped to the prerequisite low of -7C (19F) in any of the country’s wine regions.

A succession of warm winters have reduced ice wine production in recent years, the wine industry’s marketing arm said. Only seven producers managed to make it in 2017, and only five in 2013. It did not say how far back records went.

“If warm winters become more frequent over the coming years, ice wines from Germany’s regions will will soon become an even more expensive rarity than they already are,” said Ernst Büscher, a spokesman for the institute.

Freezing the grapes before they are crushed concentrates the sugar and leads to an intensely sweet wine often served with dessert. It has always been an niche product, accounting for around 0.1% of German production, and the low volumes make it expensive.

Making ice wine is a tricky business that can enhance a harvest the grapes with only a few hours notice when the temperature falls, often at night or in the early morning. The grapes have to be pressed while still frozen, so they work in unheated facilities. Vineyard owners also face the risk that grapes set aside for ice wine will rot on the vine before the temperature drops far enough.
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kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1967 on: March 02, 2020, 02:10:17 PM »
Hunger threat as tropical fish seek cooler waters

...

Although scientists have known that the composition of stocks is changing in many world fisheries, they have not until now fully appreciated the devastating effect the climate crisis will have on tropical countries.

In the North Sea, for example, when fish like cod move north to find cooler and more congenial conditions for breeding, they are replaced by fish from further south which also have a commercial value, such as Mediterranean species like red mullet. But when fish move from the tropics there are no species from nearer the equator that are acclimatised to the hotter water and able to take their place.

Now Jorge García Molinos of Hokkaido University and colleagues in Japan and the US have undertaken a comprehensive study of 779 commercial fish species to see how they would expand or contract their range under both moderate and more severe global warming between 2015 and 2100, using 2012 as a baseline for their distribution.

The computer model they used showed that under moderate ocean warming tropical countries would lose 15% of their fish species by the end of this century. But if higher greenhouse gas emissions continued, fuelling more severe heat, that would rise to 40%.

The worst-affected countries would be along the north-west African seaboard, while south-east Asia, the Caribbean and Central America would also experience steep declines.

Alarmed by their findings, because of the effect they would have on the nutrition of the people who relied on fish protein for their survival, the scientists examined existing fisheries agreements to see if they took into account the fact that stocks might move because of climate change.

Analysis of 127 publicly-available international agreements showed that none contained language to deal with climate change or stock movements to other waters.

Some dealt with short-term stock fluctuations but not permanent movements, and did not deal with the possible over-fishing of replacement stocks.

https://climatenewsnetwork.net/hunger-threat-as-tropical-fish-seek-cooler-waters/
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sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1968 on: March 06, 2020, 10:09:44 PM »
Some sanity: alternative to synthetic fertilizer

"Proven is the agriculture industry's first sustainable nitrogen-producing microbe for corn. "

"does not degrade, runoff in waterways or volatize into the air."

https://www.agweb.com/article/farmer-quits-synthetic-nitrogen-goes-n-producing-microbe-corn

I think it might be a variant of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klebsiella_variicola

sidd

gerontocrat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1969 on: March 07, 2020, 08:51:58 PM »
GREAT BARRIER REEF enters bleaching mode.

https://www.wunderground.com/article/science/environment/news/2020-03-06-great-barrier-reef-mass-bleaching-event

The Great Barrier Reef Is Undergoing a Widespread Bleaching Event- Jonathan Belles
Quote
Published: March 6, 2020
The Great Barrier Reef is likely in the middle of "its most widespread coral bleaching event in recent years," according to NOAA.

The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority said that as of March 5, it has collected 250 sightings of coral reef bleaching in the last month through its Eye on the Reef program.

The reports span "across the Great Barrier, stretching from the northern part of the reef all the way to the southern portion of the reef," says coral reef scientist Dr. Kim Cobb of the Georgia Institute of Technology.

This bleaching event is expected to be less severe than recent events in 2016 and 2017, but more widespread.

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/gbr_heat_stress_event_2020.php
Status of Bleaching Heat Stress on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia - 2020

Quote
CRW's daily global 5km coral bleaching Degree Heating Week (DHW) product (Figure 3) depicts the current level of accumulated oceanic heat stress. This is the key factor that determines coral bleaching. The entire GBR has been accumulating DHWs and, hence, damage from heat stress. A DHW above 0, but below 4, is considered the period when bleaching starts. By a DHW of 4, significant bleaching can be expected. Once DHW values increase to 8 and above, severe, widespread bleaching and significant mortality of heat-sensitive species are expected.
The actual DHW value at which bleaching becomes significant on a reef can vary from event to event. Previous GBR observations suggest that by a DHW of 4, significant bleaching is underway and observable. We don't definitively know why the difference exists from one event to another. However, research suggests that contributing factors include, but are not limited to, light levels, a change in species composition of reefs following previous mortality events, pre-conditioning, adaptation, and different oceanographic conditions.

Note that most of the GBR's DHW values are lower than they are in the deeper surrounding waters, due to the strong tides up and down the GBR. The tides affect the mixing of hot surface waters with cooler subsurface waters. This manifests as cooler water at the surface and is an extremely important mechanism to consider when assessing the potential for coral bleaching on the GBR.
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kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1970 on: March 09, 2020, 09:50:06 AM »
The following article is basically about Sonya Dyhrman’s research into the deep sea food chain.
So just quoting a short snippit.


THE SCIENTIST TACKLING THE DEEP-SEA FOOD CHAIN

...

Because of recent technological advancements unlocked by the Human Genome Project, Dyhrman and her team are able to ask and answer questions she never thought possible.

...

Recent advancements have revealed that marine microbes can actually talk to each other in a special chemical language, which opens up a novel slew of research questions. “It’s like we are trying to learn to understand a language that only these microbes speak in order to eavesdrop on their conversations,” Hennon says. Their research showed that certain phytoplankton and “helper” bacteria are usually friendly until exposed to global-warming-sparked ocean acidification — when their relationship can sometimes shift to become more antagonistic, according to Hennon.

https://www.ozy.com/the-new-and-the-next/will-your-favorite-fish-still-be-here-in-2050-the-microbes-tell-the-tale/284851/
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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1971 on: March 14, 2020, 08:34:00 AM »
I was worried about coronavirus with regards to food supplies, but now I think it might be a slight alleviating factor in this regard.
- The collapsing oil price disincentivises the use of foodstuffs as biofuels, and also makes fertiliser, food transport and various other farming related activity cheaper.
- The reduction in particulate emissions in countries in lockdown should help crop growth, livestock health etc.
- Assuming we do, sadly, see millions of deaths worldwide, we can also expect to see a small commensurate dent in food consumption.

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1972 on: March 14, 2020, 11:38:12 AM »
I was worried about coronavirus with regards to food supplies, but now I think it might be a slight alleviating factor in this regard.
- The collapsing oil price disincentivises the use of foodstuffs as biofuels, and also makes fertiliser, food transport and various other farming related activity cheaper.
- The reduction in particulate emissions in countries in lockdown should help crop growth, livestock health etc.
- Assuming we do, sadly, see millions of deaths worldwide, we can also expect to see a small commensurate dent in food consumption.
Maybe. But these kind of interaction webs are complicated and often unintuitive so it could go either way.
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kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1973 on: March 14, 2020, 04:39:51 PM »
And whatever happens to the foodsupply is rather irrelevant looking at the larger scheme of things (a bit like the CO2 drop discussed in the freezing thread).

Try not to be too obsessed about Covid and think about the really big problems the next generation will have to face.
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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1974 on: March 14, 2020, 05:09:31 PM »
Yes, kassy, but this pandemic is not in 2100, it’s in 2020.
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kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1975 on: March 14, 2020, 07:15:21 PM »
This global warming is also in 2020 and like the Covid thing we can actually do something about it. Now go do it.

It will effect far more people then this thing.
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kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1976 on: March 16, 2020, 11:35:02 AM »
Overheated Reefs Are Caught in a Vicious Carbon Cycle

..

When he dives there today, though, he sees a barren seascape overrun by tropical invaders, from seaweed-eating rabbitfish to plumes of red calcifying algae.

This is tropicalization in action. The phenomenon, in which flora and fauna from warm climates move into cooler regions that have endured heatwaves, is exemplified by tropical sea urchins decimating kelp forests in Tasmania and coral reef fish finding a permanent home in southern Japan.

“The influx of tropical species is transforming typical temperate reefs into more tropical ones,” says Peleg, a marine ecologist at the University of Auckland in New Zealand. “It’s pretty crazy.”

These tropical newcomers are changing more than just the appearance of temperate reefs. A new study has found that tropicalized reefs can switch from being rich carbon sinks, which pull carbon dioxide out of the water and store it, to carbon sources that contribute to further warming. The shift sets off a dangerous feedback loop that facilitates the spread of disruptive tropical invaders.

...

While the study was only conducted on a single reef, Peleg says the effects of tropicalization could be devastating at larger scales. Western Australia stands as a stark example. There, hundreds of kilometers of kelp forests have already been wiped out by marine heatwaves, with invasive tropical fish stripping away new algal communities before they are able to establish themselves.

“That’s a lot of stored carbon that’s not there anymore, meaning that some of it likely went back into the atmosphere,” says Peleg. “Where there’s no sink, carbon dioxide emissions increase.”

https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/overheated-reefs-are-caught-in-a-vicious-carbon-cycle/
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 05:12:45 PM by kassy »
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nanning

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1977 on: March 20, 2020, 09:51:22 AM »
Climate shocks in just one country could disrupt global food supply

   A study looked at how severe drought could hit U.S. wheat harvests
    - and ripple around the world, driving up food prices


https://news.trust.org/item/20200320042228-iyodj/
  by Thin Lei Win, Thomson Reuters Foundation

Quote
ROME, March 20 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Catastrophic crop failures caused by extreme weather in just one country could disrupt global food supplies and drive price spikes in an interconnected world, exposing how climate change threatens global stability, researchers said on Friday.

They examined how the global trade and supplies of wheat, a crop used for food staples like bread and pasta, would be affected by four years of severe drought in the United States, one of the world's top exporters of the grain.

Based on two models of how countries could try to meet their needs, an international research team found the United States would deplete nearly all its wheat reserves after four years in both scenarios, while global stocks could drop by 31%.

The 174 countries to which America exports wheat would see their reserves decrease, even though they did not themselves suffer failed harvests, according to a study published in the journal Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems.

"It affects almost every country in the world because the U.S. has so many trade links," said lead author Alison Heslin, a researcher at Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Those links mean there is a cascading effect, either directly from the United States or via one of its trading partners, which could reduce the amount of wheat available and increase prices, she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

As reserves are depleted, changes in production would have a bigger impact on the price of food, Heslin added.

Reduced global reserves would also mean a smaller buffer against future shocks such as a drought in other wheat-producing nations like Russia or France, she said.

Scientists have warned hotter temperatures and more erratic rainfall could increase the frequency and intensity of droughts, with multi-year droughts already wreaking havoc in many nations.

Five years of recurring droughts have destroyed maize and bean harvests in Central America's Dry Corridor, for example, leaving poor farmers struggling to feed their families and pushing them to migrate, the United Nations said in 2019.

The wheat study was based on data from the 1930s American Dust Bowl disaster when maize and wheat production plummeted due to intense drought, higher temperatures and strong winds, causing thousands of deaths.

Heslin said global food security was key to people's health and safety, with international food price spikes in 2008 and 2011 curtailing families' ability to purchase food and rattling political stability as people protested on the streets.

Maintaining strategic food reserves and a diverse set of trading partners could help countries reduce risks, she added.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

nanning

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1978 on: March 20, 2020, 10:24:32 AM »
Unseasonal rain and hail damages crops in India, hits farmers' income

https://news.trust.org/item/20200316183018-r5p0q/
  by Mayank Bhardwaj, Reuters


NEW DELHI, March 16 (Reuters) - Unseasonal torrential rains and hailstorms have damaged the winter-planted crops of millions of Indian growers, inundating wheat, potato, chickpea and rapeseed farms in large parts of the fertile northern plains, farmers said.

Most farmers were caught by surprise by the repeated rain and hail that has lashed fields full of mature crops, raising concerns about quality degradation, threatening to cut yields, and pushing back harvests.


Rains have hit the wheat crop in the northern states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, India's grain belt.

"The crop has suffered extensive and irreversible damage in eastern Uttar Pradesh," said Sudhir Panwar, chief of farmers' group Kisan Jagriti Manch. "The government is yet to assess the damage, and by the time the farmers get any compensation from the government, it will be too late."


Indian farmers grow staples such as wheat and rice because the Indian government, which runs the world's biggest food welfare programme, buys the crops at guaranteed prices which invariably go up every year.


The untimely rains have also brought misery to potato and chickpea farmers in the northern and some central parts of the country, Panwar said.

"Even the farmers who have been able to salvage their crops, will find it difficult to get reasonable prices due to quality issues," said Dharmendra Malik, a farm leader from Uttar Pradesh.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1979 on: March 20, 2020, 02:04:58 PM »
Climate shocks in just one country could disrupt global food supply

We saw a similar thing but more limited effect when the soviet grain harvest failed which was a factor in the arab spring uprisings.

The paper:
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2020.00026/full
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1980 on: March 20, 2020, 02:48:32 PM »
Quote
   A study looked at how severe drought could hit U.S. wheat harvests
    - and ripple around the world, driving up food prices

Flexibility is key.  Other crops can replace wheat loss.  Pasta made from veggies is already increasing in popularity and availability.  And don’t forget cricket flour.  :)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1981 on: March 20, 2020, 03:11:30 PM »
Don´t forget there is a difference in purchasing power between many international consumers.
Replacement and flexibility are not an option everywhere.

The ones that contributed the least are the ones that suffer most because of this. This is really important to remember.

It is all too easy to become blind to ones own privilege or extrapolate from your normal because many things we take for granted are not that normal around the world.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1982 on: March 20, 2020, 07:02:41 PM »
Don´t forget there is a difference in purchasing power between many international consumers.
Replacement and flexibility are not an option everywhere.

The ones that contributed the least are the ones that suffer most because of this. This is really important to remember.

It is all too easy to become blind to ones own privilege or extrapolate from your normal because many things we take for granted are not that normal around the world.

It will not be just a consumer or luxury choice.  Wheat growers who see their wheat crops failing year after year will switch to other crops.  Food producers who find their wheat supply “drying up” will alter their products to use alternatives.  Price for an alternative that grows more successfully than wheat could be cheaper.  And if the choice is cricket flour or no flour, the cricket market will flourish.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1983 on: March 22, 2020, 12:13:50 AM »
If your small farm was dependent upon restaurant sales you are in deep trouble right now. Those of us who use a shipping service for individuals ( direct customer business ) are still OK for now . However we are by far in the minority as far as farm plans go. Farming and restaurants operate on thin margins and many businesses will fail as expenses continue and incomes drop. My feed bill alone is about $2,000 a month and if you can’t sell your products you can get in trouble very quickly.
 Markets and market perturbations are far scarier than climate change, one slow the other instantaneous . Same is true for commercial fishing.
 Most decisions evolve around what you can sell at a profit rather than what will grow on your farm. If the profitable business fails because the market collapsed you probably can’t shift sideways to a different crop. You just go out of business like thousands of farms soon will.
 Because seafood is usually consumed at restaurants here in the US my fishermen friends are in trouble too. Exports market collapses had already truncated markets and with restaurant closures now delivering the season ending blow.

TerryM

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1984 on: March 22, 2020, 01:04:01 AM »
^^
Bruce
Some farmers around here sell produce on the honor system from unmanned kiosks with cigar boxes for change. I know it's small potatoes and a percentage will be stolen, but it's better than letting crops rot in the fields.
Some percentage of the thefts will be by people needing food - not criminals in the normal sense.
You've mentioned insurance problems when selling produce as well as meat. Would simply asking for donations (remotely) land you in trouble?


I know I'm grasping but I feel this is going to be much worse than I'd feared only days ago.


The huge fish market in Seattle has been devoid of customers for days. I can't imagine that there's a market for fresh fish anywhere. Hopefully there will be some kind of moratorium on repossession of fishing boats. (and farms)?


Stay Isolated - Stay Well - Stay in Touch
Terry

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1985 on: March 22, 2020, 01:28:16 AM »
Terry, Back when I farmed vegetables and ran a farm stand I used to sell honor system at the end of the summer after school started and the customers vaporized. So I put a bowl with a rock on some one dollar bills and made a sign that said “ make your own  change. “ I don’t think anyone stole anything and they might have tried tipping me which I didn’t take while manning the stand.
 I have been making calls to close friends and giving advice about buying a bag of cleaned wheat and a bag of whole corn at the feed store. Get an electric flour mill on the internet. Buy some yeast and get some hydrated lime to nixtamalize your corn. A few hundred bucks insurance agains’t 18 months isolation.  Food system may not be dependable if there are social shocks . Feed stores are still open I believe even in a lockdown.
 I made a batch of masa yesterday from dent corn I grew two years ago . It tastes good still even though fresh dried corn tastes better. Time to start the “ acorn challenge “ thread again.
 Wishing you well Terry, give Carole a kiss on the cheek

sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1986 on: March 22, 2020, 04:16:23 AM »
I am in deep farming country in PA, two hours from anywhere. Spring is here. Crocuses are up (but it is gonna be 25F tonite.)  Business as usual. Spinning up for the coming year. Everybody is pulling out equipment, making sure things are running. Tractor fixit place is busy like every year. Neighbour is putting a new barn up, can hear his nailgun going.

Last year was tough, money and weatherwise, but not as tough as some they've seen. New season's here. Things to be done.

Corona ? whats that ? no cases in this county or the next one. Yet.

These families know about epidemic. The house i am sitting in was built in 1875. It has unfinished sections because epidemic killed six of eight children and two of four adults year after they began build.

Seen less than one person a day for the last week. Lotsa birds. Two dogs. Several cats. Racoon. Squirrels. All figuring out it's spring again.

Nearest grocery store over in the next valley say a dozen miles away, is outta various stuff. No one is too bothered, this is farm country, used to being shut in for weeks and last in line for aid.

Next week i am westbound to a city of a million or so, many cases.

sidd


El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1987 on: March 22, 2020, 07:56:22 AM »
So you can stand with Belarus' preident Lukashenko :)

https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/news/belarusian-leader-proposes-tractor-therapy-for-virus/

"Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Monday (16 Monday) encouraged citizens to work in the countryside and drive tractors as a way to overcome the coronavirus epidemic.

The former collective farm director, who likes to emphasise his connection to the land and rural residents, told officials at a televised meeting that “there shouldn’t be any panic” over the virus.

“You just have to work, especially now, in a village”, he said as the former Soviet country that borders Russia and Poland prepares to sow crops.

“It’s nice watching television: people are working in tractors, no one is talking about the virus,” Lukashenko said.

“There, the tractor will heal everyone. The fields heal everyone,” he added.

Belarus is famed in the former Soviet Union for its tractor production, with the Minsk tractor plant remaining a regional leader.

Neighbouring Russia and the European Union, the country of nine million has so far reported 36 cases of the coronavirus.

Lukashenko is not the only post-Soviet leader to put a personal spin on anti-viral advice.

The isolated authoritarian state has not reported any cases of coronavirus. Russia has sent it testing kits"

TerryM

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1988 on: March 22, 2020, 08:44:40 AM »



I'm surrounded by Amish/Mennonite communities with major feed stores close by. Neither Carole or I are capable of light chores or heavy cooking. I'm afraid that milling our own flour would be beyond us. An active 150 year old farmers market is but blocks away and they sell a variety of prepared food twice a week.
The Big Box grocery stores are experiencing hiccups, but a little flexibility irons things out.
The largest Canadian food transportation hub is local and my food concerns are principally for others. I do believe there will be shortages of familiar foods and that may take some getting used to.
Perhaps a food preparation thread for those staying in could be started?


The data coming principaly from New York has left me feeling that this will be bigger & last longer than my worst projections.


This begins day 21 of isolation and last night I began wondering about long term access to my vaping supplies. ::)
In the mirror my hair is reminding me of the way I was wearing it in the 70's & Carole frets over missing her hair, nail and facial appointments.
Frivolous stuff, but it takes our minds off more serious concerns.


Carole's daughter was operated on ahead of schedule in Las Vegas and no cancer was the verdict. I assume they're clearing the decks for the action that they know is coming. She's safely back home.


Mild depression, or perhaps anxiety continues to dog us. We're going to require unfamiliar diversions at some point. We each have hobbies that we haven't engaged in for decades. We've spent a huge amount of our time together, particularly since retirement and still get great enjoyment from each others companionship.


Christ!
Now I'm getting maudlin.


Stay Isolated - Beware large Cities - Stay in Touch
Bruce - Scratch a piggy's nose for me.
sidd - Don't spend too long on your journey, Home's where we need to be.
Terry

nanning

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1989 on: March 22, 2020, 10:04:33 AM »
Quote from: TerryM
In the mirror my hair is reminding me of the way I was wearing it in the 70's

I am very surprised by this. Your haircolour came back?  ;D

Fun fact: My hair hasn't been cut since August 2018.

Back to thread topic.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1990 on: March 22, 2020, 10:49:02 AM »
I get a buzz cut about every five weeks.
Think I am going to let it grow longer this time.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

TerryM

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1991 on: March 22, 2020, 09:18:40 PM »
Quote from: TerryM
In the mirror my hair is reminding me of the way I was wearing it in the 70's

I am very surprised by this. Your haircolour came back;D

Fun fact: My hair hasn't been cut since August 2018.

Back to thread topic.
Ouch!!
I began as a very light blond and began graying in my early 20's. Depending on the light I'd be seen as either gray or blond until well into my 50's - after that there were no doubts, I was gray.


I've never suffered the indignity of a bald, or even a thin patch, so when barbering became far too intimate, the length of my hair, which I've always worn longish, quickly grew (intended) to resemble the hair on the skinny kid whose likeness stares back from dog eared photos in aged albums that still exude a vaguely weedy odor.


When very long hair was a very new thing in Southern California I had two jobs that required very different hair styles.
By day I was a hard working, hard drinking, short haired truck driver that inhaled bennies until his eyes quivered. The transformation would begin early Friday evening, and by midnight I'd have become a very long haired commie pinko hippie that would shuck and jive in a psychedelically fueled patois as I strode to my weekend gig as a light show impresario. - no one allowed on the light stand without at least one full hit of Purple Owsley. Owsley himself showed up on one memorable occasion.


My partner at the time affected the name of "Creepin Jesus" principally because of his naturally grown locks. We spotted a pair of likely looking cowgirls as we sauntered towards the wrong side of town & allowed them to buy us a beer at the Dew Drop Inn, a local beer and blood emporium favored by cowboys sans horses.
There was a bar down the block for bikers without bikes, it was that kind of neighborhood.


We were diverted by the cowgirls lecherous attentions and didn't notice when their husbands stumbled through the back door.


They were outraged that hippies had defiled their watering hole. They were outraged that their wives were drinking with long haired sissies. They were outraged because it was Friday night at the Dew Drop Inn and they always got outraged on Friday night at the Dew Drop Inn.


One grabbed Creepin Jesus by the shirt and prepared to smack him with the long neck bottle of coors conveniently cupped in his other hand. His partner in outrage, and my immediate nemesis made a successful grab for my luxuriant locks, and as I ducked the world suddenly stopped rotating.


My blustering, beer besotted assailant suddenly faced a gangly short haired kid with pink curlers crossing his close cropped pate. The hank of lifeless hair hanging from his right hand was hard to dislodge though he shook it vigorously.  His jaw swung open, closed momentarily then dropped again just before an unseen right cross closed it at a strange angle.
His partner had been so distracted that, though he still held Creepin' J's shirt, he'd dropped his weapon and stood transfixed awaiting CJ's righteous response.


Well the barkeep mopped up the little blood that had leaked to the floor and returned my girlfriend's "fall". The cowgirls dabbed at their fallen hero's faces and swore they'd never again take up with dirty, faggy, drug addicted, commie pinko hippies.
Creepin Jesus and I left during the confusion and shuffled across town to Larry's Den of Iniquity, the site of the weekend's festivities. CJ was still trying to master his newly acquired platform shoes and I was preening in the wildest, widest bell bottoms I'd ever seen.


I still wonder what stories the cowboys tell of the night they inadvertently scalped a hippy.
Terry

oren

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1992 on: March 22, 2020, 09:32:27 PM »
Great story Terry!
Keep safe.

TerryM

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1993 on: March 22, 2020, 10:33:14 PM »
^^
Thanks oren.


Idle fingers - and all that stuff
Terry

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1994 on: March 23, 2020, 05:09:21 PM »
Guterres: 3.5-4.4 billion people will live with limited access to water by 2050

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned on Sunday that without further efforts, between 3.5 and 4.4 billion people in the world will live with limited access to water, with more than 1 billion of them living in cities.

In his message to the World Water Day, which falls on March 22, the UN chief said that "the world's water resources are under unprecedented threat."

"Today, some 2.2 billion people lack safe drinking water, and 4.2 billion people live without access to adequate sanitation. Unless we act with urgency, the impacts of climate change are projected to exacerbate these figures," he said.

Noting that this year's World Water Day focuses on water and climate change, the secretary-general said that "with 2020 a make-or-break year for climate action, this focus is timely."

...

"We must urgently scale up investments in healthy watersheds and water infrastructure, with dramatic improvements in the efficiency of water use."

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-23/Guterres-3-5-4-4-billion-people-will-face-clean-water-problem-by-2050-P67UucPZpm/index.html
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1995 on: March 26, 2020, 07:25:29 PM »
Great Barrier Reef suffers third mass bleaching in five years

Australia's Great Barrier Reef has suffered another mass bleaching event - the third in just five years.

Warmer sea temperatures - particularly in February - are feared to have caused huge coral loss across the world's largest reef system.

Scientists say they have detected widespread bleaching, including extensive patches of severe damage. But they have also found healthy pockets.

Two-thirds of the reef was damaged by similar events in 2016 and 2017.

The reef system, which covers over 2,300km (1,400 miles), is a World Heritage site recognised for its "enormous scientific and intrinsic importance".

Last year, Australia was forced to downgrade its five-year reef outlook from poor to very poor due to the impact of human-induced climate change.

On Thursday, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority said its latest aerial surveys had shown that the severity of bleaching varied across the reef.

But it said more areas had been damaged than in previous events.

etc

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-52043554

The rhythm won´t get better until we do something. As it is we lose it.
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nanning

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1996 on: March 27, 2020, 05:24:27 AM »
^^
"The reef system, which covers over 2,300km (1,400 miles), is a World Heritage site recognised for its "enormous scientific and intrinsic importance""

This view depends strongy on whom does the recognising.
The important powerful people who make all the policies have this view:

...a World Heritage site recognised for its "enormous economic and tourism importance"

How to change this view?


Re: potable water stress. I think 2050 is too far away in the future. 2030 will be bad enough as many places already experience this stress and will be very likely without potable water within a decade. Then what?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

TerryM

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1997 on: March 27, 2020, 08:31:11 AM »
^^
nanning, when you mention 2050 being "Too far away in the future" I'm reminded of kassey's insistence that CV19 will pass, for most of us, but AGW is something we and all of our children will be forced to deal with.


The way I've been looking at it is that the most immediate problem is war - global nuclear war in particular.
I feel that if we let this one get away from us nothing else matters - nothing can take president!


Now we're faced with CV19. The threat of a devastating pandemic has always been there, but it had slid so far down on my list of possibilities that I ignored it.
After scanning past pandemics, specifically the Black Death (yersinia pestis bacteria) I found that it killed far more than I'd been aware of, and it kept coming back for hundreds of years.
Religion changed, government changed, we changed and the world changed because of Black Death.


The Novel Coronavirus isn't The Black Death. The problem is that it is a novel virus and no one knows just what it is or what it could become.


How "far away in the future" will 2030 be if this returns annually and disrupts the world the way it has this year?
What plans for the future will be initiated. How many of them will be completed.
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1998 on: March 27, 2020, 09:30:57 AM »
Quote
Re: potable water stress. I think 2050 is too far away in the future. 2030 will be bad enough as many places already experience this stress and will be very likely without potable water within a decade. Then what?
That's why I started my 2030 thread. People don't worry much about 2050 (much less 2100) so I wanted to discuss what problems/crises/disasters/catastrophes would show up in the next decade.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1999 on: March 29, 2020, 01:27:33 PM »
As the ocean warms, marine species relocate toward the poles

Since pre-industrial times, the world's oceans have warmed by an average of one degree Celsius (1°C). Now researchers report that those rising temperatures have led to widespread changes in the population sizes of marine species. The researchers found a general pattern of species having increasing numbers on their poleward sides and losses toward the equator.

....

"The main surprise is how pervasive the effects were," says senior author Martin Genner, an evolutionary ecologist at the University of Bristol. "We found the same trend across all groups of marine life we looked at, from plankton to marine invertebrates, and from fish to seabirds."

...

The findings show that large-scale changes in the abundance of species are well underway. They also suggest that marine species haven't managed to adapt to warmer conditions. The researchers therefore suggest that projected sea temperature increases of up to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels by 2050 will continue to drive the latitudinal abundance shifts in marine species, including those of importance for coastal livelihoods.

"This matters because it means that climate change is not only leading to abundance changes, but intrinsically affecting the performance of species locally," Genner says. "We see species such as Emperor penguin becoming less abundant as water becomes too warm at their equatorward edge, and we see some fish such as European seabass thriving at their poleward edge where historically they were uncommon."

The findings show that climate change is affecting marine species in a highly consistent and non-trivial way. "While some marine life may benefit as the ocean warms, the findings point toward a future in which we will also see continued loss of marine life," Genner says.

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200326124155.htm

Article is OA
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.