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Author Topic: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD  (Read 494190 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1500 on: April 09, 2019, 08:53:25 AM »
Midwest Flooding is Causing an Exodus of U.S. Workers   
https://www.axios.com/midwest-flooding-exodus-workers-fc81e561-ad1c-4a90-8582-21f1017a5eff.html

Workers are permanently moving from flood-ravaged towns and cities in the U.S. Midwest, an exodus that could hurt already-struggling manufacturing and agriculture companies, according to a new report.

What's happening: Flooding last month from heavy rains caused more than $3 billion in damage in Iowa, Kansas, South Dakota, Wisconsin and elsewhere, the AP reports. Among companies sustaining damage were Big Ag's Archer Daniels Midland, Cargill and Tyson.

In a new report provided first to Axios, LinkedIn said members from flood zones are changing their place of residence in considerable numbers.

Based on that, and what workers did in prior natural disasters — Miami for example had a 62.9% increase in net migration in the calendar year after Hurricane Irma in 2017 — LinkedIn forecasts a comparatively large migration to the Southwest in the coming months.

"[W]e expect to see an increase in workers moving to: Denver, Dallas-Fort Worth, Seattle, and Phoenix," LinkedIn said.

"It's important to consider that severe weather caused by climate change may have lasting consequences on the economic health and vitality of regions like the Midwest that are already struggling to retain jobs and talent," said Guy Berger, LinkedIn's chief economist.

Agriculture and manufacturing companies, such as Cargill and Tyson, are among those that are likely to be hit hard by the migration of workers to the Southwest, LinkedIn said.

--------------------------

Second 'Bomb Cyclone' in Less than a Month Could Impact the Central US This Week? 
https://amp.mprnews.org/story/updraft/2019/04/ya-sure-you-betcha-another-april-blizzard-likely-by-thursday/
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/extreme-weather-blizzard-bomb-cyclone-plains-midwest-latest-forecast-path-track-today-2019-04-08/



Only three weeks after a "bomb cyclone" — one of the most intense storms on record — pummeled the Plains and Midwest, another bomb cyclone of similar strength has been forecast. This spring storm seems poised to dump even heavier snow; it could also be followed by another round of significant river flooding.   

Over the past few days, various forecast computer models have shown a blizzard of epic proportions for the north-central Plain States and Upper Midwest. Every time a model is updated, the storm depicted seems to get even more intense. At this point, it seems likely that some of the same areas impacted by devastating flooding just weeks ago are about to get slammed by an historic blizzard Wednesday through Friday.

The storm will intensify as it enters the central Great Plains on Wednesday. The barometric pressure may drop to levels nearly as low as during the record-setting bomb cyclone in mid-March. In fact, this storm could tie or set April low pressure records.



The latest computer models put the bullseye for the heaviest snow band from Sioux Falls, South Dakota, through Minneapolis east to Eau Claire, Wisconsin. Snow totals could be staggering, with some models showing more than 30 inches in some areas.

Additional flooding in the Plains by the weekend is likely 
« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 09:02:02 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1501 on: April 12, 2019, 03:19:20 AM »
US Disaster Aid Won't Cover Lost Crops in Midwest Floods, Farmers Out Millions of Dollars
https://accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-disaster-aid-wont-cover-lost-crops-in-midwest-floods-farmers-out-millions-of-dollars/70007922

Record flooding that has overwhelmed the midwestern United States this spring has taken a significant toll on farmers, and the U.S. disaster aid isn't covering crops lost by the floods.

The federal policy states that the grain damaged from flooded river water has to be destroyed, and according to Reuters there's nothing the U.S. government can do about the millions of damaged crops under current laws or disaster-aid programs.

Reuters reports this is a problem the USDA has never seen on this scale before because U.S. farmers have never stored so much of their harvests.

Midwestern farmers have been storing their corn and soybeans in unprecedented amounts due to the U.S. and China trade war, according to the BBC.

Last year, the USDA made $12 billion in aid available to farmers who suffered trade-war losses, but there is no program to cover the catastrophic and largely uninsured stored-crop losses from the widespread flooding.


Nebraska's Gov. Pete Ricketts has estimated the losses to the agricultural sector alone at $1 billion. However, the damage doesn't stop there. States such as Missouri, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Iowa were also greatly impacted.

AccuWeather estimated the total damage and economic loss caused by record-breaking flooding in the midwestern U.S. this spring will total $12.5 billion, based on an analysis of damages already inflicted and those expected by additional flooding 

...On top of losing millions in crops, farmers are facing pricey facility damage. According to ISU experts, grains swell when wet, so bin damage is likely. Wood structures will be hard hit and may retain mold and contaminants.

Not only does flooding impact their grain and facilities, but it also delays planting of this years crop, Mohler said.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 03:25:00 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1502 on: April 13, 2019, 03:23:06 PM »
Why the 2018 heatwave was the last straw for Scotland’s farmers | HeraldScotland
Quote
MAKING hay might be easier when the sun shines, or so the old adage goes. But cutting enough straw, it turns out, can be a lot harder.
Scottish farmers were not long in to last year when they realised they had less straw, and that the stalks they did have were shorter than usual.

They had suffered a wet autumn in 2017, hitting their winter crops, before a big winter and spring freeze and a scorching, grass-drying summer.

The result? Their animals had less grass to eat in the summer and so needed more cut feed, such as straw. But the farmers had less straw. 2018 was, literally, the year Scottish farmers pulled a short straw. ...
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17571200.why-the-2018-heatwave-was-the-last-straw-for-scotlands-farmers/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1503 on: April 18, 2019, 04:33:56 PM »
AIRS confirms global warming at least as bad as thought (worse at Arctic):
https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2019-04-18-nasa-study-confirms-global-warming-trends
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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1504 on: April 29, 2019, 04:05:14 PM »
Data Scientists Mapped Supply Chains of Every U.S. City
https://phys.org/news/2019-04-scientists-chains-city.html

Do you know where your food, energy, and water (FEW) come from?



FEW-View™ is an online educational tool that helps U.S. residents and community leaders visualize their supply chains, with an emphasis on food, energy, and water. This tool lets you see the hidden connections and benchmark your supply chain’s sustainability, security, and resilience.

https://fewsion.us/few-view

With FEWSION, people can map from the sources of their community's animal products, grains, meat and other foodstuffs; crude oil, gasoline, natural gas and electricity; and water sources. This is useful information for people who want to buy more local products or measure the sustainability of the community's food and energy consumption, but the purpose of this data is far greater. Ruddell sees FEWSION being especially useful for emergency managers, who can use it to plan ahead if a disaster or situation in some other part of the country is likely to affect their community; and sustainability officers who want to reduce their community's footprint by changing their commodity sourcing and supply chains.

... In addition to understanding that no city is a resource island, this knowledge also empowers communities to invest in the security, resilience and sustainability of their supply chains.

For example, the current drought emergency the Colorado River is not just a regional problem, Ruddell said. If farms in Arizona or California run out of water, the supply of produce is reduced and the price of healthy, fresh food goes up nationwide. 
« Last Edit: April 29, 2019, 04:16:10 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1505 on: April 30, 2019, 08:46:59 PM »
Excessive Rainfall as Damaging to Corn Yield as Extreme Heat, Drought
https://phys.org/news/2019-04-excessive-rainfall-corn-yield-extreme.html



Recent flooding in the Midwest has brought attention to the complex agricultural problems associated with too much rain. Data from the past three decades suggest that excessive rainfall can affect crop yield as much as excessive heat and drought. In a new study, an interdisciplinary team from the University of Illinois linked crop insurance, climate, soil and corn yield data from 1981 through 2016.

The study found that during some years, excessive rainfall reduced U.S. corn yield by as much as 34% relative to the expected yield. Data suggest that drought and excessive heat caused a yield loss of up to 37% during some years. The findings are published in the journal Global Change Biology.

Excessive rainfall can affect crop productivity in various ways, including direct physical damage, delayed planting and harvesting, restricted root growth, oxygen deficiency and nutrient loss, the researchers said.

... Many climate change models predict that the U.S. Corn Belt region will continue to experience more intense rainfall events in the spring. 

Open Access: Yan Li et al, Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States, Global Change Biology (2019)
« Last Edit: May 02, 2019, 03:04:54 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Klondike Kat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1506 on: May 01, 2019, 02:54:58 PM »
In short, rainfall between 1 sigma below average to 2 sigma above average was optimal.  Namely, it resulted in above average yields.  Rainfall between 1.5 and 1.0 sigma below average and 2.0 to 2.5 sigma above average resulting in an average yield.  Rainfall rates below 1.5 sigma or above 2.5 sigma resulted in significantly reduced yields (>10%).  Some state to state variability did exist. 

Thank you Vox.

vox_mundi

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« Reply #1507 on: May 01, 2019, 03:55:11 PM »
In science, many researchers report the standard deviation of experimental data, and only effects that fall much farther than two standard deviations away from what would have been expected are considered statistically significant—normal random error or variation in the measurements is in this way distinguished from likely genuine effects or associations.


95 % of all data points fall between + 2 sigma and - 2 sigma around the mean (average). This is called a normal distribution.

From the article ...


(a)Maize yield response to growing season precipitation anomaly from 1981 to 2016. Each bar shows the yield change weighted by harvest area from county samples in the corresponding precipitation range. The percentages shown on top are the averaged impacts of extreme drought (<−2σ, red) and extreme rainfall (>2.5σ, blue) on maize yield.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sleepy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1508 on: May 01, 2019, 04:53:13 PM »
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1509 on: May 01, 2019, 05:10:11 PM »
And this ...

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1510 on: May 01, 2019, 09:51:58 PM »
Even young kids understand, if we teach them.

EVmom on Twitter:
Quote
My [5-year-old]  brought home her empty yogurt container for the 1st time. Curious as to why, I asked her.
"Because at school there's no recycling. Just trash." And she went back to playing.
Guys. I'm so proud! Kids are awesome!! ... #recycling #EVmom #kids
https://twitter.com/evmom111/status/1123290511920517121
Lunchbox image at the link. ;)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1511 on: May 01, 2019, 11:07:34 PM »
Maine Becomes the First State to Ban Styrofoam
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/01/us/maine-ban-styrofoam-trnd/index.html

Food containers made of Styrofoam, also known as polystyrene, will be officially banned from businesses in Maine after governor Janet Mills signed a bill into law Tuesday.

The law, which will go into effect January 1, 2021, prohibits restaurants, caterers, coffee shops and grocery stores from using the to-go foam containers because they cannot be recycled in Maine.

Maine(D) has become the first state to take such a step as debate about banning plastic bags or other disposable products is spreading across the nation.

While states like New York(D) and California(D) have banned single-use plastic bags, others such as Tennessee(R) and Florida(R) have made it illegal for local municipalities to regulate them.

Maryland's legislature also has approved bills to ban polystyrene, but it's unclear whether Republican Gov. Larry Hogan will sign the legislation.


"Polystyrene cannot be recycled like a lot of other products, so while that cup of coffee may be finished, the Styrofoam cup it was in is not," Mills said in a statement to CNN affiliate WMTW. "In fact, it will be around for decades to come and eventually it will break down into particles, polluting our environment, hurting our wildlife, and even detrimentally impacting our economy."

The Maine law, originally proposed by Rep. Stanley Zeigler (D-Montville), also applies to plastic beverage stirrers.

« Last Edit: May 01, 2019, 11:37:42 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

wdmn

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1512 on: May 02, 2019, 01:03:22 AM »
As oceans warm, microbes could pump more CO2 back into air, study warns

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-04/eiac-aow042419.php

The world's oceans soak up about a quarter of the carbon dioxide that humans pump into the air each year -- a powerful brake on the greenhouse effect. In addition to purely physical and chemical processes, a large part of this is taken up by photosynthetic plankton as they incorporate carbon into their bodies. When plankton die, they sink, taking the carbon with them. Some part of this organic rain will end up locked into the deep ocean, insulated from the atmosphere for centuries or more. But what the ocean takes, the ocean also gives back. Before many of the remains get very far, they are consumed by aerobic bacteria. And, just like us, those bacteria respire by taking in oxygen and expelling carbon dioxide. Much of that regenerated CO2 thus ends up back in the air.

A new study suggests that CO2 regeneration may become faster in many regions of the world as the oceans warm with changing climate. This, in turn, may reduce the deep oceans' ability to keep carbon locked up. The study shows that in many cases, bacteria are consuming more plankton at shallower depths than previously believed, and that the conditions under which they do this will spread as water temperatures rise. The study was published this week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1513 on: May 02, 2019, 05:39:00 PM »
Even young kids understand, if we teach them.

EVmom on Twitter:
Quote
My [5-year-old]  brought home her empty yogurt container for the 1st time. Curious as to why, I asked her.
"Because at school there's no recycling. Just trash." And she went back to playing.
Guys. I'm so proud! Kids are awesome!! ... #recycling #EVmom #kids
https://twitter.com/evmom111/status/1123290511920517121
Lunchbox image at the link. ;)

I used to recycle at my condo. I would even fish recyclables from the dumpster and put them in the recycle bins.
But the company kept forgetting to pick up our recyclables, perhaps because our condo buildings (and bins) are located a little ways back from the street. So a few months ago, there was a notice on the doors to the buildings that the condo had cancelled its contract with the company, and that if we wanted to recycle we would have to haul our recyclables all the way over to the High School and sort them.
That was the end of my recycling.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1514 on: May 03, 2019, 05:34:23 PM »
Climate Extremes Explain 18%-43% of Global Crop Yield Variations
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-climate-extremes-global-crop.html

... Overall, year-to-year changes in climate factors during the growing season of maize, rice, soy and spring wheat accounted for 20%-49% of yield fluctuations, according to research published in Environmental Research Letters.

Climate extremes, such as hot and cold temperature extremes, drought and heavy precipitation, by themselves accounted for 18%-43% of these interannual variations in crop yield.


The research also revealed global hotspots—areas that produce a large proportion of the world's crop production, yet are most susceptible to climate variability and extremes.

Quote
"We found that most of these hotspots—regions that are critical for overall production and at the same time strongly influenced by climate variability and climate extremes—appear to be in industrialised crop production regions, such as North America and Europe."

Open Access: Elisabeth Vogel et al, The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields, Environmental Research Letters (2019)

-----------------------------

Even If You Don't Live In the Midwest, This Spring's Floods Could Still Impact You
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-dont-midwest-impact.html

From enduring drought to intense floods, agriculture is particularly sensitive and vulnerable to changes in our climate. Floods are temporary, but their socioeconomic impact is long-lasting and far-reaching to every corner of the world. "It is clear that agriculture prices have entered a new age of volatility," according to a report by Oliver Wyman, a leader of global management consulting firm. ... and this wouldn't be the first time the global food market has felt a weather shock. ...

... The results of these shocks show that nowhere is an absolute safe haven in this world. We may not be influenced directly by drought, heat waves or flooding, but we may suffer from economic fluctuations and social instability due to the chain reaction.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2019, 06:23:12 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sark

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I am not a scientist

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1516 on: May 05, 2019, 05:22:47 AM »
Investors Worried About Climate Change Run Into New SEC Roadblocks 
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/01052019/shareholder-resolution-climate-change-sec-challenge-micromanage-trump?amp

Investors' efforts to get energy and utility companies to set greenhouse gas reduction targets and disclose their plans for meeting those goals are facing more hurdles now than in the past five years.

Nearly two-thirds of the climate-related shareholder resolutions filed with publicly held energy and utility companies this year have been contested before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, an agency now dominated by appointees of President Donald Trump who appear more sympathetic to the fossil fuel industry.

So far this year, the SEC has sustained 45 percent of the challenges, the highest percentage in the last five years.



Exxon, Chevron and Devon Energy have all succeeded with arguments that some shareholder proposals infringe on the companies' oversight of everyday business operations.
The SEC concluded that forcing the companies to comply with the demands would be micromanaging.

Killing climate resolutions "will undermine the rights of shareholders to engage with publicly traded companies on issues that are essential to risk management, strong governance, and long-term value creation, such as the impact of climate change on companies and companies' impact on climate change," U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, wrote in a letter to SEC Chairman Jay Clayton.

------------------------------

Insurance Experts Rank Climate Change as Top Risk for 2019 
https://grist.org/article/insurance-experts-rank-climate-change-as-top-risk-for-2019/

According to a new industry survey, actuaries (the people who calculate insurance risks and premiums based on available data) ranked climate change as the top risk for 2019, beating out concerns over cyber damages, financial instability, and terrorism.

https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2019/12th-emerging-risk-survey.pdf

The survey, published by the Joint Risk Management Section and two other organizations that represent professional actuaries, found that out of 267 actuaries surveyed, 22 percent identified climate change as their top emerging risk. It was also the top-ranked choice for combination risk and tied with cyber/interconnectedness of infrastructure for top current risk. It’s a dramatic shift from previous years, when climate change lagged well behind other dangers to people and property. In last year’s survey, only 7 percent of respondents rated climate change as the top emerging risk.

The survey results align with several current and future projections of climate change’s impact on the global economy. According to one estimate, natural disasters caused about $340 billion in damage across the world in 2017, with insurers paying out a record $138 billion. The insurance industry plays a huge role in the U.S. economy at $5 trillion (Insurance spending in 2017 made up about 11 percent of America’s GDP). Climate change can make a sizable dent on economic growth by disrupting supply chains and demand for products, and creating harsh working conditions, among other issues.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1517 on: May 06, 2019, 11:31:03 AM »
Winter Weather Window Is Costing Rapeseed Growers Millions
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-winter-weather-window-rapeseed-growers.html



UK rapeseed growers are losing up to a quarter of their crop yield each year because of temperature increase during an early-winter weather window. 

Based on analysis of climate and yield data, the team calculate that temperature variation during this critical time window can lead to losses of up to £160 million in the UK rapeseed harvest—about 25 percent of the total value.

"The study shows that chilling of the crop in winter is really important for the development of a high yield. But it's not just winter in general, it's a specific time from late November and through December. Our data showed that even if its colder in January and February, it doesn't have the same effect on yield."   

"If you ask farmers why they don't grow more rapeseed, they usually say it's too unreliable," says Professor Penfield. "The data in our study clearly shows temperature is having a direct effect on UK agriculture productivity."

Penfield, et.al., Yield instability of winter oilseed rape modulated by early winter temperature, Scientific Reports (2019)

----------------------------

Banana Disease Boosted by Climate Change   
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-banana-disease-boosted-climate.html

A new study, by the University of Exeter, says changes to moisture and temperature conditions have increased the risk of Black Sigatoka by more than 44% in these areas since the 1960s.

International trade and increased banana production have also aided the spread of Black Sigatoka, which can reduce the fruit produced by infected plants by up to 80%.

"This research shows that climate change has made temperatures better for spore germination and growth, and made crop canopies wetter, raising the risk of Black Sigatoka infection in many banana-growing areas of Latin America." 
« Last Edit: May 06, 2019, 01:20:51 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Klondike Kat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1518 on: May 06, 2019, 04:09:06 PM »
I am a little leery about that climate extreme effect on agricultural yields report.  They state, "Temperature-related extremes show a stronger association with yield anomalies than precipitation-related factors" and "drought—was found to be of low to medium importance for yield anomaly predictions, unlike previous studies that found a statistical relationship between reported droughts and yields". 


vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1519 on: May 13, 2019, 06:20:17 PM »
Wild Pigs Invade Canadian Provinces—An Emerging Crisis for Agriculture and the Environment
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-wild-pigs-invade-canadian-provinces.html

Wild pigs—a mix of wild boar and domestic swine—are spreading rapidly across Canada, threatening native species such as nesting birds, deer, agricultural crops, and farm livestock, research by the University of Saskatchewan (USask) shows.

The first-ever published survey of the wild pig distribution in Canada has found a rapid expansion in the invasive species' range, which is increasing by nine per cent a year.

"Wild pigs are ecological train wrecks. They are prolific breeders making them an extremely successful invasive species," ... They are adapted to very cold temperatures, and can breed in any season, living in 'pigloos' burrowed into the snow. Sexually mature within four-to-eight months, they feed on all common types of farmers' crops, including corn, wheat and canola. They also eat insects, birds, reptiles and small mammals.

Wild boar were brought from Europe in the late 1980s and early 1990s to diversify Canadian livestock production. Others were imported as 'penned game' for shooting.

The hybrid wild pigs have rapidly multiplied and spread, making them the most prolific invasive mammal in Canada.

By 2017, they had spread exponentially across Canada, from British Columbia to Ontario and Quebec, with the majority in the south-central half of Saskatchewan. Their territory has increased by 88,000 square kilometres per year, on average, over the last decade.

"The growing wild pig population is not an ecological disaster waiting to happen—it is already happening," said USask's Ryan Brook, lead researcher for the Canadian Wild Pig Project, a Canada-wide research program, and Ruth Aschim's supervisor.



Open Access: Ruth A. Aschim et al. Evaluating Cost-Effective Methods for Rapid and Repeatable National Scale Detection and Mapping of Invasive Species Spread, Scientific Reports (2019).

---------------------

Kinda like humans
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1520 on: May 13, 2019, 09:36:23 PM »
I am a little leery about that climate extreme effect on agricultural yields report.  They state, "Temperature-related extremes show a stronger association with yield anomalies than precipitation-related factors" and "drought—was found to be of low to medium importance for yield anomaly predictions, unlike previous studies that found a statistical relationship between reported droughts and yields".

Anyone, who ever tried growing food would find that statement...hmmm...let's just say dubious....

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1521 on: May 14, 2019, 12:12:44 AM »
California jury awards couple $2 billion in latest Roundup herbicide defeat for Bayer
Quote
A jury dealt Bayer AG a third court defeat, awarding $2.055 billion to a California couple who blamed the German company’s Roundup weedkiller for causing their cancer.

The verdict by the Northern California jury comes as Bayer BAYRY, -2.76%   faces a revolt from shareholders over last year’s acquisition of Monsanto Co., which exposed Bayer to some 13,400 claims tying Roundup to cancer.

Two previous trial losses have helped wipe more than 30% off Bayer’s share price. Last month, a majority of Bayer shareholders refused to endorse management’s actions in the past year, indicating that investors lack confidence in how the company is being run.
...
Reaching a settlement in the case is complicated by the fact that the product continues to be sold to consumers and farmers and doesn’t carry a cancer-warning label, which means the potential pool of plaintiffs could expand indefinitely. The company could reach a deal with the current batch of plaintiffs and set aside money to pay out future claims, or continue fighting case by case to gather more data points. People familiar with Bayer say the company isn’t planning to settle before at least a first few cases have gone through appeal.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-jury-awards-couple-2-billion-in-latest-roundup-herbicide-defeat-for-bayer-2019-05-13
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sark

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1522 on: May 14, 2019, 01:25:10 AM »
I am a little leery about that climate extreme effect on agricultural yields report.  They state, "Temperature-related extremes show a stronger association with yield anomalies than precipitation-related factors" and "drought—was found to be of low to medium importance for yield anomaly predictions, unlike previous studies that found a statistical relationship between reported droughts and yields".

watch the video already
I am not a scientist

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1523 on: May 14, 2019, 05:35:38 PM »
It's Not Just Fish, Plastic Pollution Harms Bacteria That Help Us Breathe
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-fish-plastic-pollution-bacteria.html

Ten per cent of the oxygen we breathe comes from just one kind of bacteria in the ocean. Now laboratory tests have shown that these bacteria are susceptible to plastic pollution, according to a study published in Communications Biology.

"We found that exposure to chemicals leaching from plastic pollution interfered with the growth, photosynthesis and oxygen production of Prochlorococcus, the ocean's most abundant photosynthetic bacteria," says lead author and Macquarie University researcher Dr. Sasha Tetu. ... one in every ten breaths of oxygen you breathe in is thanks to these little guys, yet almost nothing is known about how marine bacteria, such as Prochlorococcus respond to human pollutants."


Population growth of Prochlorococcus MIT9312 and NATL2A in the presence of diluted HDPE (high-density polyethylene) and PVC (polyvinyl chloride) leachates compared to 0% leachate control. In addition to effects on population growth, leachate exposure had a strong, dose-dependent effect on photosynthesis efficiency of photosystem II (PSII) in both Prochlorococcus MIT9312 and NATL2A 

Open Access: Sasha G. Tetu, et.al., Plastic leachates impair growth and oxygen production in Prochlorococcus, the ocean’s most abundant photosynthetic bacteria, Communications Biology Volume 2, Article number: 184 (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1524 on: May 15, 2019, 09:55:28 PM »
New Research Finds Unprecedented Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-unprecedented-weakening-asian-summer-monsoon.html

Rainfall from the Asian summer monsoon has been decreasing over the past 80 years, a decline unprecedented in the last 448 years, according to a new study.

The new research used tree ring records to reconstruct the Asian summer monsoon back to 1566. The study, published in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters, found the monsoon has been weakening since the 1940s, resulting in regional droughts and hardships.

The new research finds man-made atmospheric pollutants are likely the reason for the decline. The 80-year decline in the monsoon coincides with the ongoing boom in industrial development and aerosol emissions in China and the northern hemisphere that began around the end of World War II, according to the study's authors. ...

Yu Liu et al, Anthropogenic aerosols cause recent pronounced weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon relative to last four centuries, Geophysical Research Letters (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1525 on: May 16, 2019, 03:02:23 AM »
Still spraying chemicals, but spot-treating weeds, rather than blanketing the entire field.

Robots Take the Wheel as Autonomous Farm Machines Hit the Field
Quote
Robots are taking over farms faster than anyone saw coming.

The first fully autonomous farm equipment is becoming commercially available, which means machines will be able to completely take over a multitude of tasks. Tractors will drive with no farmer in the cab, and specialized equipment will be able to spray, plant, plow and weed cropland. And it’s all happening well before many analysts had predicted thanks to small startups in Canada and Australia. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-05-15/robots-take-the-wheel-as-autonomous-farm-machines-hit-the-field
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1526 on: May 19, 2019, 05:14:22 PM »
WE MADE PLASTIC. WE DEPEND ON IT. NOW WE’RE DROWNING IN IT.
The miracle material has made modern life possible. But more than 40 percent of it is used just once, and it’s choking our waterways.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2018/06/plastic-planet-waste-pollution-trash-crisis/
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Tom_Mazanec

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Klondike Kat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1528 on: May 22, 2019, 01:48:33 PM »
Weather around world threatens global food crisis:
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/floods-and-drought-devastate-crops-all-over-the-planet-could-a-global-food-crisis-be-coming

Michael Snyder has been writing about the coming collapse of civilization for some time now.  He appears to be a modern day Paul Ehrlich.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1529 on: May 22, 2019, 02:26:06 PM »
Weather around world threatens global food crisis:
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/floods-and-drought-devastate-crops-all-over-the-planet-could-a-global-food-crisis-be-coming

Michael Snyder has been writing about the coming collapse of civilization for some time now.  He appears to be a modern day Paul Ehrlich.

The little boy was right in the end, the wolf finally did come.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1530 on: May 22, 2019, 05:12:02 PM »
Oh yes, Malthus said the same more than 200 yrs ago. Still waiting for that to come true...

And watch the crisis in food prices:

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1531 on: May 22, 2019, 05:14:25 PM »
We can already produce enough food for 10 billion people even though African grain yields are around 1-1,5 tons/ha vs 3-4 t in Asia and 5+ tons in Europe/America. Africans could easily double their production.
There is not going to be any sort of food crisis during the next 20-30 years

Archimid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1532 on: May 22, 2019, 05:26:49 PM »
Anyone wants to guess what happens if the graph posted by El Cid is extended 30 years into the past? Attached.

What's up with all this technology and plant food that we throw in to the air? Why food prices are higher after all this growth in farming?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1533 on: May 22, 2019, 06:18:51 PM »
Most of the increase in food prices can be tied to fuel costs.  Compare those graph to oil prices.  Relative food prices have been falling for decades.

gerontocrat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1534 on: May 22, 2019, 06:44:52 PM »
Most of the increase in food prices can be tied to fuel costs.  Compare those graph to oil prices.  Relative food prices have been falling for decades.
I would be surprised if there is not a correlation between the relative price of food to world GDP and the increased pace of the 6th Mass Extinction.

Modern agro-industry improves food productivity in the short to medium-term and also relies on expanding into new areas and ever-increasing doses of herbicides, pesticides and fertilisers.

Malthus got 3 things wrong (in my most un-humble opinion)....
- being unaware of the massive areas as yet unexploited for agriculture (e.g. North America),
- saying it is the poor who are the major drain on resources,
- underestimating how long systems manage to stagger on before collapsing (very common in eco-systems).

If food production continues without major problems for the next 20 to 30 years, losing 1 million species from the biosphere will seen as a gross underestimate. (e.g. The Amazon will be a place without forest as it is required for agro-industry).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1535 on: May 22, 2019, 07:40:16 PM »
Anyone wants to guess what happens if the graph posted by El Cid is extended 30 years into the past? Attached.

What's up with all this technology and plant food that we throw in to the air? Why food prices are higher after all this growth in farming?

Oh my god, here we go again messing up  REAL and NOMINAL prices, forgetting about wage growth, etc. How much did a gallon at the pump cost 30 yrs ago? How much did houses cost 30 years ago? How much was your salary 30 years ago?

To give you a better picture of the long term, 2 pictures:


El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1536 on: May 22, 2019, 07:46:34 PM »



Modern agro-industry improves food productivity in the short to medium-term and also relies on expanding into new areas and ever-increasing doses of herbicides, pesticides and fertilisers.

***

If food production continues without major problems for the next 20 to 30 years, losing 1 million species from the biosphere will seen as a gross underestimate. (e.g. The Amazon will be a place without forest as it is required for agro-industry).

gerontocrat,

I totally agree with you on the first part. We must change practices to regenerative agriculture which is already totally viable and able to produce as much food as we produce now. This however means that we do NOT need any more land (no more Amazon clearings needed) to feed 8 billion people. We only need to change practices (which won't happen overnight but we are heading that way). Look at what Gabe Brown or Joel Salatin do. It can be done pretty large scale. We can grow our food in a pretty environment friendly way

And this is the reason I do not agree with you on the second part. We can keep up biodiversity AND produce enough food for the planet. We have the solution, we "only" need to apply it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1537 on: May 22, 2019, 08:11:28 PM »



Modern agro-industry improves food productivity in the short to medium-term and also relies on expanding into new areas and ever-increasing doses of herbicides, pesticides and fertilisers.

***

If food production continues without major problems for the next 20 to 30 years, losing 1 million species from the biosphere will seen as a gross underestimate. (e.g. The Amazon will be a place without forest as it is required for agro-industry).

gerontocrat,

I totally agree with you on the first part. We must change practices to regenerative agriculture which is already totally viable and able to produce as much food as we produce now.

And this is the reason I do not agree with you on the second part. We can keep up biodiversity AND produce enough food for the planet. We have the solution, we "only" need to apply it.
You are an optimist - some days I am. But today all I can see is Bolsanaro handing over the Amazon to the loggers and the agro-industry. And as the Special Report said - 12 years left to get a grip (more like 11 or less as this year we go backwards on all fronts).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Archimid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1538 on: May 22, 2019, 10:41:03 PM »
Oh my god, here we go again messing up  REAL and NOMINAL prices, forgetting about wage growth, etc. How much did a gallon at the pump cost 30 yrs ago? How much did houses cost 30 years ago? How much was your salary 30 years ago?

I did not forget about any of those things. The food price index inflected up around 2008, there hasn't been a 50% increase in prices due to inflation or GDP growth since 2008.

The graphs that you posted end before the graph I posted even begins. I agree that they do represent the technological gains in agriculture. But mine clearly shows that something isn't right with the picture you paint. Prices are going up, even after you adjust for inflation or GDP.

Quote
There is not going to be any sort of food crisis during the next 20-30 years

The short graph you posted to defend the above statement is a cherry pick. Your inference is unsupported by the better data.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1539 on: May 23, 2019, 03:56:23 AM »
Over the long haul, the percentage of household income spent in food has decreased significantly.  Additionally, the volatility of food price has been reduced, an indicator of food stability.

https://ourworldindata.org/food-prices

Archimid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1540 on: May 23, 2019, 04:27:50 AM »
Quote
Over the long haul, the percentage of household income spent in food has decreased significantly

Absolutely. That means that if food is ever scarce again the prices will skyrocket as people can pay much more for food.

Quote
Additionally, the volatility of food price has been reduced, an indicator of food stability.


Ugh. The volatility of the last 15 years is much higher than the volatility of the 15 years before that, at least according to the index posted. I can 100% believe that volatility now is much less than in 1850. That is also not very relevant.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1541 on: May 23, 2019, 05:08:55 PM »
Quote
Over the long haul, the percentage of household income spent in food has decreased significantly

Absolutely. That means that if food is ever scarce again the prices will skyrocket as people can pay much more for food.

Quote
Additionally, the volatility of food price has been reduced, an indicator of food stability.


Ugh. The volatility of the last 15 years is much higher than the volatility of the 15 years before that, at least according to the index posted. I can 100% believe that volatility now is much less than in 1850. That is also not very relevant.

Yes, basic supply and demand.

True, but selectively choosing the lowest volatility years is a questionable practice, at best.  The lower volatility was largely tied to stable oil prices during that time frame.  Overall, food price volatility has decreased significantly over the past century.  Your claim that the volatility over the pat 15 years is greater than the previous 15 is true, but misses the point that it was lower than every other previous 15-year period - and by a large margin.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1542 on: May 24, 2019, 12:10:53 AM »
The size of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, compared to various continents. :o  22-second video.

Physics & Astronomy Zone on Twitter: "Mini continent of garbage...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/zonephysics/status/1130261943443443712
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Archimid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1543 on: May 24, 2019, 12:26:17 AM »
Quote
Your claim that the volatility over the pat 15 years is greater than the previous 15 is true, but misses the point that it was lower than every other previous 15-year period - and by a large margin.

You miss the point that at a time when people are claiming "There is not going to be any sort of food crisis during the next 20-30 years" there is an increase in volatility and price of food.  If our system is so robust, volatility should be further decreasing and prices going down to match our precious GDP growth and technological marvels. That is not what is happening.

I wouldn't doubt if fuel prices do account for some of the spikes in that graph, but I'm sure that so does climate change.

Anyway food prices are a late indicator of trouble. As soon as food is scarce panic will ensue, specially in places where people have never seen food scarcity.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

be cause

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1544 on: May 24, 2019, 03:03:51 AM »
Quote
Over the long haul, the percentage of household income spent in food has decreased significantly

Absolutely. That means that if food is ever scarce again the prices will skyrocket as people can pay much more for food.

Quote
Additionally, the volatility of food price has been reduced, an indicator of food stability.




I would suggest you have forgotton subsidy entirely .. the UN only last year stated that if it was not for the unfair subsidy given to intensive agriculture it would be the poor sister of Organic sustainable production ...
 People are already paying for their food through their taxes . This is no small matter .. subsidized diesel has turned tractors into turbo-monsters with their exhausts like fingers up to the green world around them . :)
be cause ..
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 04:12:51 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1545 on: May 24, 2019, 07:48:14 AM »
Now,
Those who believe in a coming food crisis in the next couple of years, I would like to know their reasons.

To have a food crisis we need to produce less food, so it boils down to simple mathematics:

- either a smaller area to grow crops on
- or crop yields to fall

No sign of any of the above, on the contrary, Africa could easily double/triple its crop yields. 

So, which one is going to happen and why?

nanning

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1546 on: May 24, 2019, 09:59:26 AM »
@El Cid

I can think of 2 more reasons for a food crisis:
1. War/severe weather/other disturbance of infrastructure, even temporary (e.g. Mozambique). With our globalised economy much of the food produced will be eaten elsewhere.
2. Food can be bought up and transported away, leaving too little behind (e.g. Irish potato famine)
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Archimid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1547 on: May 24, 2019, 02:08:57 PM »
Quote
To have a food crisis we need to produce less food, so it boils down to simple mathematics:

- either a smaller area to grow crops on
- or crop yields to fall


A smaller area to grow crops is achieved if crop land becomes too wet or too dry to support crops.

1 Million Acres of Midwest Farmlands Flooded as Corn Planting Deadlines Approach

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/midwest/2019/04/01/522389.htm


Quote
At least 1 million acres (405,000 hectares) of U.S. farmland were flooded after the “bomb cyclone” storm left wide swaths of nine major grain producing states under water this month, satellite data analyzed by Gro Intelligence for Reuters showed.
...

“There’s thousands of acres that won’t be able to be planted,” Ryan Sonderup, 36, of Fullerton, Nebraska, who has been farming for 18 years, said in a recent interview.

“If we had straight sunshine now until May and June, maybe it can be done, but I don’t see how that soil gets back with expected rainfall.”

These types of events are becoming more frequent all over the globe. Is it the end of the world at the moment? No. Why?  Diversification. There is excess food grown all over the globe. When a field fails there is another one ready to pick up the slack at the cost of a slight increase in price. However, as events like this year's Midwest floods become worse and more common volatility will increase, leading to local chaos.

If food scarcity happened in the US, were most people have never gone a day without eating, the impact will be much larger than in countries were people have struggled finding food many times in their lives.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1548 on: May 24, 2019, 03:20:07 PM »
"However, AS events like this year's Midwest floods become worse and more common volatility will increase, leading to local chaos. "

It is not "as" but "if".

On the other hand, people in developed economies already consume 1,5 times as much calories as needed, so cutting back would not hurt them, as it was clearly shown by the experience of the UK during WW2, when reduced calory intake significantly improved public health figures.

My view is unchanged: we already produce more food than we need, and we can (and will) increase yields in Africa while I also see new areas brought into production (mainly in Russia and Canada)


Klondike Kat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1549 on: May 24, 2019, 03:25:30 PM »
Quote
To have a food crisis we need to produce less food, so it boils down to simple mathematics:

- either a smaller area to grow crops on
- or crop yields to fall


A smaller area to grow crops is achieved if crop land becomes too wet or too dry to support crops.

1 Million Acres of Midwest Farmlands Flooded as Corn Planting Deadlines Approach

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/midwest/2019/04/01/522389.htm


Quote
At least 1 million acres (405,000 hectares) of U.S. farmland were flooded after the “bomb cyclone” storm left wide swaths of nine major grain producing states under water this month, satellite data analyzed by Gro Intelligence for Reuters showed.
...

“There’s thousands of acres that won’t be able to be planted,” Ryan Sonderup, 36, of Fullerton, Nebraska, who has been farming for 18 years, said in a recent interview.

“If we had straight sunshine now until May and June, maybe it can be done, but I don’t see how that soil gets back with expected rainfall.”

These types of events are becoming more frequent all over the globe. Is it the end of the world at the moment? No. Why?  Diversification. There is excess food grown all over the globe. When a field fails there is another one ready to pick up the slack at the cost of a slight increase in price. However, as events like this year's Midwest floods become worse and more common volatility will increase, leading to local chaos.

If food scarcity happened in the US, were most people have never gone a day without eating, the impact will be much larger than in countries were people have struggled finding food many times in their lives.

Diversification is the major reason that we will not see a food crisis any time soon.  As stated in the two previous posts, we currently grow excess food globally.  A shortfall in one area, can be supplanted by a surplus elsewhere.  According to WHO, world hunger is not caused by a shortfall in food production.  Rather, it is a direct result of poverty.