Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD  (Read 503360 times)

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1600 on: June 01, 2019, 09:23:42 PM »
Interesting article.  The overall decrease is driven by losses in Europe (especially Russia), South Africa, and Australia.  Increases were found in China, North and South America.  I wonder how much political influences affected the yields.

 :o :o

Temperatures in Australia are rising rapidly...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_Australia

...and Australia is experiencing its worse drought in recorded history!

http://time.com/longform/australia-drought-photos/

Could you please try to explain to me how politics is causing this?

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1601 on: June 01, 2019, 09:58:12 PM »
Interesting article.  The overall decrease is driven by losses in Europe (especially Russia), South Africa, and Australia.  Increases were found in China, North and South America.  I wonder how much political influences affected the yields.

 :o :o

Temperatures in Australia are rising rapidly...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_Australia

...and Australia is experiencing its worse drought in recorded history!

http://time.com/longform/australia-drought-photos/

Could you please try to explain to me how politics is causing this?

Australia is a minor player in global food production, and my comment had nothing to do with policies down under.  Rather, I was referring to policies in Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union.

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 571
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1602 on: June 03, 2019, 06:42:08 AM »
Food prices in REAL terms (which means adjusted for inflation) are where they were in the 60s and 70s, and only 50% higher than at the multidecade lows around 2000, when oil prices were only a third of today's. That is quite amazing in itself since oil prices drive food prices very much.

Indeed, it's impressive that so far food prices have been as steady as they have in spite of rising oil prices, freshwater depletion & contamination, fish stock depletion, 80m more mouths to feed each year, desertification, general climate change-related disruption etc.

So far, of course, being a key point to note. I'm not sure how much longer this can go on.

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1603 on: June 03, 2019, 07:00:26 AM »
Food prices in REAL terms (which means adjusted for inflation) are where they were in the 60s and 70s, and only 50% higher than at the multidecade lows around 2000, when oil prices were only a third of today's. That is quite amazing in itself since oil prices drive food prices very much.

Indeed, it's impressive that so far food prices have been as steady as they have in spite of rising oil prices, freshwater depletion & contamination, fish stock depletion, 80m more mouths to feed each year, desertification, general climate change-related disruption etc.


If you are in the middle of a Malthusian catastrophe, you still think you are in a golden age. This is a function of math.

"Little does the fox know, that the number of rabbits is in steady decline."


wdmn

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 350
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 62
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1604 on: June 03, 2019, 07:46:19 AM »
Thanks for sharing, it's a good video, though I have a complaint:

I think he takes a copout at the end with his optimistic turn. He avoids climate change and the lags in the consequence of our emissions, as well as other lags, like the extinction debt. Also, I'm not so sure it is that easy to bring down population growth rapidly. The wealth redistribution can happen quickly, the cultural changes and education takes a lot longer (trauma is another kind of lag).





b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1605 on: June 03, 2019, 08:35:14 AM »
Thanks for sharing

Welcome :) Thanks for watching!

Quote
it's a good video

No, it's a brilliant video. ;)

Quote
He avoids climate change

The talk is about the model which is about resources and takes consumption of them into account. Not the depletion of resources due to climate change though.

So yes, the situation is actually way worse.

Quote
I'm not so sure it is that easy to bring down population growth rapidly

You can check that in the data easily. The moment a society becomes wealthy, the reproduction rate goes down. That's an undisputed fact in sociology.


wdmn

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 350
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 62
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1606 on: June 03, 2019, 09:08:47 AM »
Quote
You can check that in the data easily. The moment a society becomes wealthy, the reproduction rate goes down. That's an undisputed fact in sociology.

I'm not denying that. But there are several complications.

First, I am calling into question how the context within which that "moment" occurs might matter. So if you've gone through a process of "development" for several decades that results in your country becoming "wealthy," is the result different than say if there was a large scale global redistribution of wealth that resulted in your society becoming wealthy "overnight."

Of course it's worth trying, but I am skeptical. I think that the effects of class linger beyond a change in wealth.

Second, a decline in birth rate is not enough. You need to reach 2 children or less worldwide to slow/reverse growth. So just to say that the data shows a decline does not guarantee it will be enough of a decline.

Third, there are many wealthy families that continue to have lots of children for religious reasons, for example. ***

In other words, if you've only got a very small window to turn things around, there are some lags here that might prove to be problematic.

The attached graph is not entirely relevant (since the countries aren't wealthy), but something can be gleaned from it, because it also includes data about the wealthy within those countries. So you can see that in all but two of these countries those women with higher education (which, as the percentages of the population indicate, are mostly wealthy) are still having more than 2 children, and half of those are having 3 or more.

*** addendum: as the graph shows, the countries with the highest birth rates (over 3.5) for women with higher education are Niger, Burundi, Afghanistan and Nigeria. Niger and Afghanistan are nearly 100% Muslim nations. Burundi is a large majority Catholic, and Nigeria is about half Muslim, and a good portion Catholic. Of course other cultural factors are relevant.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2019, 09:19:57 AM by wdmn »

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1607 on: June 03, 2019, 09:36:41 AM »
if you've gone through a process of "development" for several decades

Let me be perfectly blunt here.

If the rich west would stop dumping cheap and subsidized products on the markets in your screenshot, if we would open up our markets to them, would stop interfering in domestic affairs, would stop financing warlords there, if we would treat them fairly, you'll have this content up in no time. The poorness of Africa is a function of ongoing exploitation, colonialism and depletion.

So let's not put a timeframe on that. Let's put 'the political will' on that.

Quote
that results in your country becoming "wealthy," is the result different than say if there was a large scale global redistribution of wealth that resulted in your society becoming wealthy "overnight."

Turn what i said above on the head. Our wealth is grounded in the fact we are not the exploited, colonized and depleted. We did this to them.

Quote
Second, a decline in birth rate is not enough.

Well, it's the one ethical tool we have, right? One child policy might be on the line of ethical, idk...

Quote
Third, there are many wealthy families that continue to have lots of children for religious reasons, for example.

Anecdotal evidence doesn't change the fact.

wdmn

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 350
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 62
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1608 on: June 03, 2019, 09:57:08 AM »
Quote
So let's not put a timeframe on that. Let's put 'the political will' on that.

I've called for as much in other threads. The question is whether we should be optimistic this will have the required effect on population growth as was modelled in that video, not whether ceasing exploitation of these nations is the right thing to do or not.

Quote
Our wealth is grounded in the fact we are not the exploited, colonized and depleted. We did this to them.

I don't think I said anything to imply otherwise. Again, the point is whether or not the optimistic scenario9 at the end of the video shared is at all realistic.

Quote
Well, it's the one ethical tool we have, right? One child policy might be on the line of ethical, idk...

Not sure I should get into this now (I know I shouldn't since I should be asleep)... but you could definitely argue that if more people will die as the result of an unmanaged collapse, that a lot of undesirable options end up back on the table.

Quote
Anecdotal evidence doesn't change the fact.

Not sure if you caught the addendum I added on in an edit, but I don't think it is entirely anecdotal. Mormons in the USA, for example, have a huge birthrate. If you had a country full of Mormons...

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1609 on: June 03, 2019, 10:08:49 AM »
I don't think I said anything to imply otherwise. Again, the point is whether or not the optimistic scenario9 at the end of the video shared is at all realistic.

I have no idea.

I think the more people know about this math, the more realistic it gets. So, share the video.

Quote
but you could definitely argue that if more people will die as the result of an unmanaged collapse, that a lot of undesirable options end up back on the table.

100% agreed.

Quote
If you had a country full of Mormons...

Then you'd have other non-Mormon countries all around. It averages out. The power of big numbers.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1610 on: June 03, 2019, 01:24:58 PM »
More on how AGW is affecting global food production:
https://www.scitecheuropa.eu/global-food-production-climate-change/95483/
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

wdmn

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 350
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 62
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1611 on: June 04, 2019, 05:53:06 AM »
I don't think I said anything to imply otherwise. Again, the point is whether or not the optimistic scenario9 at the end of the video shared is at all realistic.

I have no idea.

I think the more people know about this math, the more realistic it gets. So, share the video.


The math is important, but so are the assumptions. I'm in no position to comment on the former, but I think that I am capable of questioning the latter.

But yes, I have been sharing the video. I really appreciated certain parts of the presentation, and it's good to see young people thinking!

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 391
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1612 on: June 04, 2019, 08:37:19 AM »
Picture taken May 31 over Eastern IL near the border of IL & IN

https://twitter.com/TheChadColby/status/1134494150794129408

The top slowest years for #corn planting on June 2:
1) 2019 67%
2) 1995 77%
3) 1982 85%
4) 1983 86%
5) 1996 86%
6) 1990 87%

https://twitter.com/kannbwx/status/1135642937797357569
I am not a scientist

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1613 on: June 04, 2019, 03:17:40 PM »
However, the slower planting season appears to have had little impact on the annual corn crop.  1990 was fairly ordinary, but the other four were unusual.  Both 1982 and 1995 witnessed record corn crops.  1983 and 1980 resulted in dismal harvest, but both years came with summer droughts, which reduced the crop.  We shall see which path 2019 takes.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1614 on: June 04, 2019, 05:20:47 PM »
However, the slower planting season appears to have had little impact on the annual corn crop.  1990 was fairly ordinary, but the other four were unusual.  Both 1982 and 1995 witnessed record corn crops.  1983 and 1980 resulted in dismal harvest, but both years came with summer droughts, which reduced the crop.  We shall see which path 2019 takes.

All things being equal, late planting does negatively impact yields.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/05/late-planting-and-projections-of-the-2019-us-corn-yield.html

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1615 on: June 04, 2019, 08:06:16 PM »
However, the slower planting season appears to have had little impact on the annual corn crop.  1990 was fairly ordinary, but the other four were unusual.  Both 1982 and 1995 witnessed record corn crops.  1983 and 1980 resulted in dismal harvest, but both years came with summer droughts, which reduced the crop.  We shall see which path 2019 takes.

All things being equal, late planting does negatively impact yields.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/05/late-planting-and-projections-of-the-2019-us-corn-yield.html

Agreed, although the data is quite limited.
Also, "It is important to recognize that good summer weather conditions can offset the projected negative impact of late planting on the national average corn yield"
So, if all things are equal over the summer growing season, then it will likely have a negative impact on yields.

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1461
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 130
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1616 on: June 05, 2019, 12:47:35 AM »
C-CAN is a group my wife and I both participate in . It brings together scientists , managers, aquaculturists, and fishermen in an effort to address ocean acidification in the California Current.
 We pull together speakers for a  webinar series in an effort to disseminate information without burning fossil fuels to attend meetings. Check out our latest, "The enviornmental cost of dinner" by Ray Hilbourn
 
https://c-can.info/c-can-oar-15-may-2019/





« Last Edit: June 05, 2019, 01:53:29 AM by Bruce Steele »

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1651
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 657
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1617 on: June 05, 2019, 01:14:51 PM »
Sorghum Making a Rebound in Europe Thanks to Climate Change 
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-sorghum-rebound-europe-climate.html



Ferenc Kardos planted 300 hectares of sorghum instead of corn this year. From the fertile Hungarian plain where he lives all the way to southeastern France, the hot weather cereal is taking root in Europe.

"With corn, we suffered losses three out of five years due to drought," said Kardos, the crop manager of a 3,000-hectare (30-square kilometre) farm without irrigation in southern Hungary, part of the Carpathian Basin which is increasingly exposed to extreme temperatures, pushing farmers to adapt crops to global warming.

"If we have to lose money, best take a chance with something we don't know well and see what happens," he said to AFP. "We know the risks with corn now."

Sorghum, which is in the same family as millet, is the world's fifth-most important cereal crop, after corn, rice, wheat and barley.

Domesticated in the Sahel region of Africa, the grain consumes 30 percent less water than corn and withstands drought better.

Moreover, sorghum needs little in the way of fertiliser as its deep, extensive roots are good at fixing nitrogen present in the soil. And the plants produce grains even in high temperatures.

... Since 2017 an EU programme has been encouraging sorghum production.

Farmers are also attracted to raising sorghum for crop rotation as it can help replenish soil worn out by intensive production of corn, sunflowers or colza.

... "We could have increased surfaces under cultivation even more... but there is a widespread lack of seeds"
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1618 on: June 05, 2019, 05:14:00 PM »

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1619 on: June 06, 2019, 01:59:06 PM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 571
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1620 on: June 07, 2019, 06:52:13 AM »
FAO Food Price Index is up again for the fifth straight month http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

Again, the rise is mainly driven by dairy, but cereals prices are also up based on decreased production forecasts from the USA.

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1621 on: June 07, 2019, 03:03:15 PM »
FAO Food Price Index is up again for the fifth straight month http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

Again, the rise is mainly driven by dairy, but cereals prices are also up based on decreased production forecasts from the USA.

Yes, dairy and corn led the increase.  Most other commodities declined, but not enough to offset their rise.  The FPI is below the corresponding month in both 2017 and 2018.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
« Last Edit: June 08, 2019, 06:50:06 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 571
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1623 on: June 09, 2019, 07:20:51 AM »
Does it update on a certain day of the month?

I'm not sure, but certainly it seems to update in the first week. To be honest, I'm much more worried by the numbers on increasing world hunger over the last few years that I've linked to before. But those only update annually.

NevB

  • New ice
  • Posts: 84
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 21
  • Likes Given: 90
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1624 on: June 09, 2019, 11:20:09 AM »
Australia’s average wheat yields, which had more than tripled due to technological advances between 1900 and 1990, did not increase from 1990 to 2015.

https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2017/Australias-wheat-yields-stalled

Quote
Recent research by CSIRO scientists, published in the journal Global Change Biology, found that Australia’s yield potential (determined by the climate and soil type, managed using best practice and current technology) declined by 27 per cent over the past quarter of a century.

CSIRO team leader Dr Zvi Hochman said the study found that Australia’s wheat-growing zone had experienced an average rainfall decline of 2.8 mm or 28 per cent per cropping season, and a maximum daily temperature increase of around 1℃ from 1990 to 2015.

These observations are consistent with the higher end of future climate change projections for the wheat zone over the coming 26 years.

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 589
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 186
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1625 on: June 09, 2019, 11:25:23 AM »
Ok, so there is less rain, and yet they produce the same yield. That is not bad. Also, I do not understand this:

"Australia’s wheat-growing zone had experienced an average rainfall decline of 2.8 mm or 28 per cent per cropping season"

if 2.8 mm = 28% than 10 mm = 100%. So they have 10 mm of rain per cropping season to start with. You can't even grow cactii with that much rain

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1651
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 657
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1626 on: June 09, 2019, 12:34:12 PM »
What was described in the article was a 2.8 mm reduction over each growing season (4 months) over each year of a 25 year period (1990-2015). Half of Australia's rain comes during the growing season.

25 x 2.8 = 70 mm = 28% of 250 mm
(25 cm = 10 inches over 4 months)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15699
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 466
  • Likes Given: 225
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1628 on: June 11, 2019, 01:50:46 PM »
The Gulf of Mexico could see one of the largest dead zones in history this year
Quote
The Gulf of Mexico could see one of its largest dead zones on record this summer, according to researchers.

A "dead zone" is known in scientific literature as hypoxia, which means low oxygen. This water, with its low concentration of dissolved oxygen, can no longer support the life that calls that part of the ocean home. For decades, researchers have tracked exactly how big the annually recurring dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico will be.

Dead zones were first noticed the area in the 1970s, and they've been growing in size ever since. Based on current conditions, some scientists think that the Gulf of Mexico will experience the second-largest dead zone on record in July.

Louisiana State University scientists predict that 8,717 square miles of bad water will be at the bottom of the continental shelf off Louisiana and Texas, making it about the same size as the state of New Jersey. The largest one was in 2017, at 8,776 square miles.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also released a dead zone prediction report Monday and anticipates a slightly smaller dead zone of 7,829 square miles. That's still larger than the five-year average measured size of the dead zone, typically 5,770 square miles. The two reports use different models to make their calculations.


This summer's dead zone will be in areas where fishing vessels usually work, meaning fleets will have to spend more on fuel to travel farther to chase fish. ...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/06/10/health/gulf-dead-zone-study-climate-scn/index.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1629 on: June 11, 2019, 03:39:19 PM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1439
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1630 on: June 11, 2019, 03:58:57 PM »
This is not climate change (I think), nor oceans or agriculture, but it is food.
The Black Death of Pigs:
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/the-biggest-animal-disease-outbreak-weve-ever-had-on-the-planet-has-already-killed-millions-and-there-is-no-way-to-stop-it

Interesting article.  I had no idea African Swine Fever was such a problem.  The world will see increased pork prices for a few years at least.  If this leads to more people becoming vegetarian, that may not be a bad thing.

The author seems to have made a career out of being a doomsayer.  Thus, he didn't reference this development:
Potential African Swine Fever vaccine developed
https://www.globalmeatnews.com/Article/2019/05/14/Potential-African-Swine-Fever-vaccine-developed

I note that this is an oral live-attenuated vaccine.  Vaccinated swine shed the strain, potentially immunizing whole herds.  This is analogous to human oral polio vaccine.

It may take another year to scale up, do larger trials, etc. 

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1631 on: June 11, 2019, 04:12:54 PM »
Yes, he is a doomsayer. But even a broken (analog) clock is right twice a day.

BTW, more on the grain/AGW report:
https://myfox47.com/2019/06/10/studies-show-how-climate-change-is-effecting-crop-production-globally/
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 07:28:50 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1651
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 657
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1632 on: June 13, 2019, 05:37:14 PM »
South Australia's Droughts are Getting Worse
https://www.unisa.edu.au/Media-Centre/Releases/2019/south-australias-droughts-are-getting-worse/

Despite Adelaide experiencing its wettest day in more than two years this month, a new study by UniSA shows droughts are becoming longer and more severe in South Australia.

The analysis shows a clear pattern of increasing drought across much of South Australia, notably over the State's most heavily inhabited areas and major catchments.

"We looked at data from 1960 to 2010 from every high-quality weather station in the State and there is a clear pattern, with drought increasing in the south of the State and over the Murray-Darling Basin, which is the food bowl of Australia," Prof Beecham says.

The study, published in a Royal Meteorological Society journal, also indicates there has been significant long-term reductions in rainfall at the most problematic time of year, which is through autumn and winter.

"This is when water systems should be recharging and flows should be building up again," Prof Beecham says. "When it is dry during this time, as it was earlier this year, it is a problem for the State's water supplies, as winter rain is soaked up by the dry environment and less ends up in reservoirs."

... "Much of the drought intensification can be linked to changes in two key climatic indices, known as Niño 3.4 and the dipole mode index," Prof Beecham says.

"As a result of changes to temperature and pressure over the Indian and Pacific oceans, South Australia's rainfall patterns are changing."


M. Rashid, S. Beekham, Characterization of meteorological droughts across South Australia, Royal Meteorological Society Journal, 03 February 2019
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1651
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 657
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1633 on: June 13, 2019, 11:17:31 PM »
Europe's Seas to Lose Almost a Third of Life Due to Climate Change: Report
https://www.dw.com/en/europes-seas-to-lose-almost-a-third-of-life-due-to-climate-change-report/a-49024909


Ensemble projections of global ocean animal biomass with climate change.

Europe's waters are expected to lose 30% of their already vulnerable ocean life to further warming, says a new study. Combined with overfishing, that loss can threaten livelihood and food security in coastal nations.

With warmer oceans pushing fish toward the cooler poles and larger species suffering the biggest decline, the new report, "Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change," aims to provide the clearest picture yet of how climate breakdown risks the structure and function of our oceans' ecosystems.

While warmer global temperatures have already caused a significant loss and redistribution of the world's sea life, the impacts in Europe will be the most keenly felt, according to one of the report's 35 authors, Boris Worm from Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada.

... In Europe we typically don't feel as vulnerable to climate change as, say, people in Bangladesh or in sub-Saharan Africa. But this report shows that Europe is actually among the most vulnerable in terms of climate impacts on marine ecosystems and declines in marine animal biomass. ... Europe is not shielded in any way from the impacts of climate change on our oceans; we're actually at the forefront of climate change. We can't buy our way out of this.


Trophic amplification of marine biomass declines.


Projected biomass trends in relation to global air temperature changes.

Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change, PNAS, 2019
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1651
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 657
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1634 on: June 14, 2019, 01:50:20 PM »
More chemicals in our vegetables ...

Bayer to Invest $5.6 Billion in New Weed Killing Methods 
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-bayer-invest-billion-weed-methods.html

German chemical and pharmaceutical company Bayer says it plans to invest some 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion) over the next decade in developing "additional methods to combat weeds."

Friday's announcement came as Bayer is engaged in legal battles in the U.S. in which plaintiffs claim that subsidiary Monsanto's Roundup weed killer caused cancer. Rulings in three cases have gone against it.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sebastian Jones

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 314
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1635 on: June 14, 2019, 05:26:23 PM »
More chemicals in our vegetables ...

Bayer to Invest $5.6 Billion in New Weed Killing Methods 
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-bayer-invest-billion-weed-methods.html

German chemical and pharmaceutical company Bayer says it plans to invest some 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion) over the next decade in developing "additional methods to combat weeds."

Friday's announcement came as Bayer is engaged in legal battles in the U.S. in which plaintiffs claim that subsidiary Monsanto's Roundup weed killer caused cancer. Rulings in three cases have gone against it.

Yeah, well, how is chemical company going to monetize regenerative agriculture?

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 287
  • Likes Given: 336
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1636 on: June 15, 2019, 05:54:53 PM »
They have no incentive so we should make laws and require much more stringent tests to show that possible new chemicals don't produce extra damage.

These tests should not just be done on the substance alone but we should also test it's effect when added to the typical chemical pollution we already have.

The test step should require independent research. So the scientists work for the people to test if it actually safe. In the current situation the tests are paid for by the companies which definitely skewers the results. They should still pay for it but to some government organisation which then hires the scientists (same for pharma and the same proces would have worked for EU cars instead of a lab test you can fake with software).
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

P-maker

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1638 on: June 17, 2019, 01:09:45 PM »
Since frozen fish is also some kind of food, I decided to put this piece of news here:

https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/shipping-company-maersk-return-arctic-northern-sea-route-summer

Apparently, the World's largest container carrier - Maersk - is about to enter negotiations with Russia's Atomflot about escort along a possible new Northern Sea Route. It seems likely that frozen fish from newly open Arctic waters may be one of the selling points...

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2374
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1639 on: June 17, 2019, 03:18:03 PM »
Everybody’s so down in the dumps’: Illinois farmers give up on planting after floods and throw party instead

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/16/midwest-floods-llinois-farmers-give-up-on-planting-and-throw-party.html

Quote
Dozens of corn farmers and those who sell them seed, chemicals and equipment gathered on Thursday at the restaurant in Deer Grove, Illinois, after heavy rains caused unprecedented delays in planting this year and contributed to record floods across the central United States.

The storms have left millions of acres unseeded in the $51 billion U.S. corn market and put crops that were planted late at a greater risk for damage from severe weather during the growing season. Together, the problems heap more pain on a farm sector that has suffered from years of low crop prices and a U.S.-China trade war that is slowing agricultural exports.

...

James McCune, a farmer from Mineral, Illinois, was unable to plant 85% of his intended corn acres and wanted to commiserate with his fellow farmers by hosting the “Prevent Plant Party” at The Happy Spot. He invited them to swap stories while tucking in to fried chicken and a keg of beer in Deer Grove, a village of about 50 people located 120 miles west of Chicago.

...

Farmers think more cuts are likely as the late-planted crop could face damage from hot summer weather and an autumn frost.

“An early frost will turn this world upside down,” Rock Katschnig, a farmer from Prophetstown, Illinois, said at the party.


I could keep quoting, but this article should be read by anyone who likes having food.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2374
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1640 on: June 17, 2019, 03:19:23 PM »
One more quote:

Quote
Planting problems mean that growers need less seed and herbicides than expected, which is bad news for salesmen like Greg McKnight of Barman Seed in Woodhull, Illinois.

McKnight, who attended the party, said farmers returned Golden Harvest corn seed, made by ChemChina’s Syngenta. They are either seeking refunds on herbicides or asking Barman to hold their chemicals in storage until next year, he said.

McKnight also sells used 18-wheeler trucks to farmers to haul grain. He thinks financial uncertainty linked to the crop problems will slice his sales in half this year.

“Since all this rain began, it’s like shutting the light switch off,” McKnight said. “My phone has quit ringing on sales.”

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 589
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 186
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1641 on: June 17, 2019, 03:24:42 PM »
Floods have happened since the beginning of agriculture (and before) and always led to problems in either planting or harvesting or both. They often led to famine. Nothing new here.
Illinois farmers have wet soil, so they can't plant and return seeds. What a surprise!

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2374
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1642 on: June 17, 2019, 03:46:45 PM »
Nah. Floods have magnitude and frequency and our infrastructure is designed to withstand floods within historic magnitude and frequency. It was predicted that a warmer world will get more and worse floods and that is what we see. It is also predicted that it will get worse.

 Your comment is only trivially true, dismissive and a danger to mankind. It brings solace where there should be alarm. It doesn't matter tho. It will get increasingly worse.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1643 on: June 17, 2019, 05:52:00 PM »
Nah. Floods have magnitude and frequency and our infrastructure is designed to withstand floods within historic magnitude and frequency. It was predicted that a warmer world will get more and worse floods and that is what we see. It is also predicted that it will get worse.

 Your comment is only trivially true, dismissive and a danger to mankind. It brings solace where there should be alarm. It doesn't matter tho. It will get increasingly worse.

Yes, in a warmer world, rainfall is expected to increase.  This will naturally led to enhanced flooding.  On the flip side, it will lead to diminished drought.  The real question is which will have a greater impact on agriculture.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2374
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1644 on: June 17, 2019, 06:16:53 PM »
Nah, flash droughts will dry out the thin top layer regardless of how much it rains.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Ardeus

  • New ice
  • Posts: 21
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1645 on: June 17, 2019, 06:35:23 PM »
Has any research been done on how climate patterns will change after there's no ice in the arctic during summer or all year round?

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 07:28:32 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1647 on: June 17, 2019, 07:15:55 PM »
Nah. Floods have magnitude and frequency and our infrastructure is designed to withstand floods within historic magnitude and frequency. It was predicted that a warmer world will get more and worse floods and that is what we see. It is also predicted that it will get worse.

 Your comment is only trivially true, dismissive and a danger to mankind. It brings solace where there should be alarm. It doesn't matter tho. It will get increasingly worse.

Yes, in a warmer world, rainfall is expected to increase.  This will naturally led to enhanced flooding.  On the flip side, it will lead to diminished drought.  The real question is which will have a greater impact on agriculture.

Sorry. Paradoxically, a warmer world will result in more frequent and severe flooding and drought and both will have a negative impact on agriculture.

aperson

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 172
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 76
  • Likes Given: 115
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1648 on: June 18, 2019, 07:54:12 AM »
Yes, in a warmer world, rainfall is expected to increase.  This will naturally led to enhanced flooding.  On the flip side, it will lead to diminished drought.

Increased flooding and increased drought are not mutually exclusive. You have an incorrect mental model of temperature and precipitation. The most basic way to correct your misunderstanding is to understand the relationship between temperature and the amount of water vapor that can be held in the air before it saturates. At warmer temperatures it is harder to saturate the atmosphere, but it will rain harder when it reaches saturation.
computer janitor by trade

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 589
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 186
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1649 on: June 18, 2019, 09:15:07 AM »
Since climate models can not even replicate the Holocene Optimum well (eg. green Sahara, or European weather) I have serious doubts about their forecasts about future temperature patterns. Rainfall patterns are even harder to predict. Also, blaming every single bad weather event on climate change is mental laziness. Weather is changable, there were and will be floods, droughts, heatwaves, cold spells etc. everywhere. We do not know how the changing climate will change weather for agriculture other than knowing that it will be generally warmer and there will generally be more rain. There will surely be places where it will get worse and surely where it will be better (for example what if the Sahara gets green again? like 5-6 th. yrs ago, surely the people there will not be very unhappy about that...)
The net result of all these changes is not evident to me. Besides, i am quite sure (seeing technological change), that 50 yrs from now Co2 emissions will be a fraction of today and although the world of the future will surely be different (warmer and wetter) from today I do not think mankind will lose out.