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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1800 on: October 01, 2019, 05:56:07 PM »
Biologists Track the Invasion of Herbicide-Resistant Weeds into Southwestern Ontario
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-biologists-track-invasion-herbicide-resistant-weeds.html

Researchers studied strains of the common waterhemp—aka Amaranthus tuberculatus—that are resistant to glyphosate, one of the most widely used herbicides in the world, commonly known by its trade name Roundup.

... "To our surprise, we found that the genomes of some resistant plants in Ontario were nearly identical to those in very distant U.S. plants. This was evidence that the Ontario plants were very closely related to the U.S. plants and suggests that the former came from seeds that were just picked up from one field and dropped in another."

The same DNA analysis identified some resistant plants that did not genetically match any other plants suggesting they appeared through the independent emergence of a genetic mutation conveying resistance.

The researchers were surprised to discover both mechanisms at play.

Quote
... "One of the most striking findings is that we see both ways that weeds could become resistant happening on really short time scales. Evolution is happening very quickly, and using multiple mechanisms."

... "At this point, we're running out of herbicides. These plants have evolved resistance to pretty much every herbicide we've come up with. And it doesn't seem like there's ever going to be a herbicide that a weed can't eventually evolve resistance to.

Open Access: Julia M. Kreiner et al, Multiple modes of convergent adaptation in the spread of glyphosate-resistant Amaranthus tuberculatus, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1801 on: October 01, 2019, 06:02:53 PM »
Multifactor Models Reveal Bleaker Picture of Climate Change Impact on Marine Life
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-multifactor-reveal-worse-picture-climate.html

... "Most models have only considered the changing temperature of the ocean to make projections for sea life," McHenry said. "However, considering factors beyond temperature provide a more complete picture of how marine life will fare as the Earth warms and these factors change accordingly."

Using data on marine species from NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service and a high-resolution global climate model projection from the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, McHenry and her team examined the expected habitat changes of more than 100 species living in the U.S Northeast Shelf—a highly productive and economically important region that spans from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Nova Scotia, Canada. Researchers found that when using a multifactor model more than 50 percent of marine species in that region would experience a decline in habitat space.

For example, the Atlantic cod had diminished habitat space when looking at temperature models, but the multifactor habitat suitability models rendered Atlantic cod essentially absent in the future.

"Atlantic cod was once an important fishery in the Northeast," McHenry said. "There are ongoing efforts to rebuild it, but these models indicate a less hopeful future for this species than originally suspected."

Jennifer McHenry et al, Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability, Global Change Biology (2019).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

nanning

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1802 on: October 02, 2019, 06:42:29 AM »
Common waterhemp—aka Amaranthus tuberculatus, you are a living nature hero!

You are stronger than human technology :) :) . Like a superbug!
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

Rodius

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sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1804 on: October 12, 2019, 08:18:44 AM »
A skeptical look at soil CO2 capture by regenerative grazing: Grunwald at politico on Steyer farm

"1,800 acres of coastal scrub and grassy hills an hour south of their San Francisco home"

"a system that mimics the wild buffalo herds that once roamed America’s grassy expanses."

" 110 mooing, cud-chewing, manure-dropping specimens, aiming to produce evidence to back changes on the agricultural operations that cover half the land on earth."

"Steyer and Taylor have sunk more than $10 million "

 “Our cows have two beautiful years here, and then one bad day.”

"the ranch is actually storing less carbon than it was in 2014; only nine of the 42 sites sampled by Point Blue showed improvement, 20 registered declines, and only two achieved the ranch’s carbon goals for 2020.  Porzig speculated that California’s severe drought may have artificially depressed TomKat’s numbers, and noted that soil carbon tends to be a lagging indicator that can take years to improve in measurable ways. "

" His cattle’s scores for body condition, pregnancy rates, and weight gains are solid and improving. The herd is healthier, even though it no longer receives deworming medication, and the land is healthier, too, even though it no longer gets sprayed or mowed to control weeds and brush."

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/10/11/tom-steyer-2020-climate-229843

sidd

Ardeus

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1805 on: October 14, 2019, 10:41:47 PM »
I consider crop failures the main near term threat caused by the melting of the arctic and the most surreal thing is that the people that agree with me are the "Grand solar minimum" crowd.



You couldn't make this up.

sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1806 on: October 15, 2019, 09:43:08 PM »
America's finest news source on the bright future for seafood:

" their recent findings indicated that climate change would have some positive effects on the environment"

" We suggest preparing for it by commandeering boats to travel out into the ocean now and start sprinkling in red pepper flakes or cajun seasoning"

"The only real downside is that humanity may quickly deplete the planet’s supply of bread bowls."

"it could lead to sea levels dropping precipitously."

https://www.theonion.com/encouraged-marine-biologists-project-oceans-will-be-nic-1839045491

sidd

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1807 on: October 16, 2019, 10:25:59 AM »
JAPAN’S SEAWEED INDUSTRY IS IN JEOPARDY

The small town of Futtsu, close to the mouth of Tokyo Bay, has been farming nori — the thin sheets of seaweed used in Japanese cuisine to wrap rice balls and make sushi rolls — for centuries. Five years ago, though, the seaweed began to disappear.

...

The problems are twofold: warming seas and not enough pollution. Climate change has led to a significant rise in water temperatures around Japan in recent decades. “We don’t know the causes for sure, but I think the biggest factor here is global warming,” says Koizumi.

...

Nori is particularly sensitive to climate change because it grows in the winter, says Kyosuke Niwa, a biologist at the Tokyo University of Marine Science. The most widely cultivated species originated in the north of Japan and its growing season does not start until the water temperature drops to 73 degrees Fahrenheit.

“Recently, the sea temperature has been rising because of global warming, and there are fewer episodes when the water temperature drops,” Niwa says. “Either the timing of a drop to [73] degrees is later or there isn’t an episode when it drops that low. That makes it hard to cultivate nori.”

https://www.ozy.com/acumen/japans-seaweed-industry-is-in-jeopardy/219660/

Hattip to Tom.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1808 on: October 18, 2019, 02:43:04 PM »
Abandoned by Great White Sharks, Cape Town Is Now Short of Whales, Too

...

“We believe the whales are not finding enough food, due to changes in the climate conditions of the Southern Ocean, possibly related to climate change,” the unit said. “Right whales eat krill and copepods and with not enough food they cannot store enough energy to complete the costly migration and reproduction.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/abandoned-by-great-white-sharks-cape-town-is-now-short-of-whales-too-1.1333223

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1809 on: October 22, 2019, 02:42:10 PM »
We Should Be Worried': Study Confirms Fear That Intense Ocean Acidification Portends Ecological Collapse

Researchers examined shell fossils in sediment dating back to the time period just after the meteorite struck the planet, which showed that the oceans' pH dropped by about 0.25 units in the 100 to 1,000 years after the strike.

"In the boundary clay, we managed to capture them just limping on past the asteroid impact," Henehan said.

But, the newspaper reported, "It was the knock-on effects of acidification and other stresses, such as the 'nuclear winter' that followed the impact, that finally drove these foraminifera to extinction."

...

Today, climate scientists warn that the continued burning of oil, gas, and coal is causing ocean acidification that, left unchecked, could cause a pH drop of 0.4 units.

If policymakers are able to help limit the warming of the globe to two degrees Celsius by ordering that fossil fuels be left in the ground and shifting to a renewable energy economy, the ocean's pH level could drop just 0.15 units.

"If 0.25 was enough to precipitate a mass extinction, we should be worried," Henahan told The Guardian.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/10/21/we-should-be-worried-study-confirms-fear-intense-ocean-acidification-portends

I find it interesting that they are using 2C as a boundary here.

I wonder how much margin we have between a 2C upper limit and the breakdown of several important sinks like northern permafrost and the Amazon...

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1810 on: October 23, 2019, 02:19:05 AM »
Africa

These Gigantic Solar-Powered Refrigerators Help Eliminate Food Waste
Quote
Developing countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America lose about 40% of their food after harvesting and during processing. And 45% of the spoilage is a result of a lack of cold storage. If that sounds like needless food waste, that’s because it is. It’s an issue that can’t be easily remedied by purchasing a fridge as we do here in the states. With 840 million people having no access to electricity, and many of them living in poverty, the answer to this problem isn’t so crystal clear.

Fortunately, a little invention called ColdHubs could be a solution.
...
“We are home to the largest tomato production belt in west Africa, yet farmers are losing more than 50% of their crops due to lack of cold storage. So we came up with solar-powered, walk-in cold rooms which can extend the life of food up to 21 days, and my goal is to push these hubs to all developing countries.” Ikegwuonu told The Guardian.

With help from the German Society of Refrigeration and Air Conditioning, the solar-powered refrigerators use powerful batteries that when fully charged, have the ability to run a unit for up to three days without sunlight, increasing a ColdHubs’ ability to thrive in even the most overcast of locations.
...
Using cheap and readily-available insulated panels, these solar-powered walk-in cold rooms provide a temperate place for farmers to store their vegetables, fruits, and other perishable foods. Using a “flexible pay-as-you-store subscription” to sustain the stations, farmers can stash away their produce neatly in the reusable crates, dramatically increasing shelf life from two days to 21 days. ...
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/coldhubs-solar-powered-refrigerators/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1811 on: October 23, 2019, 02:30:11 AM »
H2Grow's Tailor-made Hydroponic System Grows Crops in Deserts
Quote
A lush, green mat of fresh animal fodder is an unlikely sight in the harsh Sahara Desert, but a project from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is helping crops flourish in unexpected places. Using purpose-built hydroponic systems, Sahrawi refugees in Western Algeria have been able to grow barley grass to feed their livestock, in turn increasing milk production and meat quality. By selling surplus fodder, the refugees have been able to earn additional income and buy goods once beyond their means. Some 150 units have been installed in the past few years, producing nearly 4,500 pounds of fodder per day.
...
In Chad, residents wanted to grow fodder to feed their livestock. Seeds for fodder such as barley grass contain sufficient nutrients to grow using only water and light. “Users just need to soak the seeds, add them to the hydroponic containers, make sure they receive adequate sunlight, and on day seven, it’s ready for harvest,” Schroeder said.

In Lima, Peru, however, residents wanted to grow produce, such as leafy greens, which require nutrient solutions to be added during the growing process. With the help of community partners, WFP launched a pilot program in three districts across the capital, reaching more than 200 vulnerable women and their families. The group is now looking into ways to scale-up the system in a bid to provide these residents with business opportunities.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/features/h2grow-world-food-programme-hydroponics/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1812 on: October 30, 2019, 11:31:08 PM »
Researchers Double Sorghum Grain Yield to Improve Food Supply
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-sorghum-grain-yield-food.html

Plant scientists at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL) and USDA's Agricultural Research Service (ARS), in their search for solutions to global food production challenges, have doubled the amount of grains that a sorghum plant can yield.

... The research team identified novel genetic variations that occurred in sorghum's MSD2 gene, increasing the grain yield 200 percent. MSD2 is part of a gene line that boosts flower fertility by lowering the amount of jasmonic acid, a hormone that controls the development of seeds and flowers.

"When this hormone is decreased, you have a release of development that does not normally occur," said Nicholas Gladman, a postdoctoral fellow in Ware's lab and first author on the study, recently published in The International Journal of Molecular Sciences. "That allows for the full formation of the female sex organs in these flowers, which then allows for increased fertility"

Gladman et. al, "Fertility of Pedicellate Spikelets in Sorghum is Controlled by a Jasmonic Acid Regulatory Module" appeared in The International Journal of Molecular Sciences on October 8, 2019.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1813 on: October 31, 2019, 09:59:42 AM »
Scientists Say Quarter of All Pigs Could Die of Swine Fever
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-scientists-quarter-pigs-die-swine.html

Around a quarter of the world's pigs are expected to die from African swine fever as authorities grapple with a complex disease spreading rapidly in the globalization era, the World Organization for Animal Health's president said Thursday.

A sharp reduction in the world's pig population would lead to possible food shortages and high pork prices, and it might also cause shortfalls in the many products made from pigs, such as the blood-thinner heparin that's used in people, said Dr. Mark Schipp, the organization's president.

The disease's spread in the past year to countries including China, which has half the world's pigs, had inflamed a worldwide crisis, Schipp told reporters at a briefing in Sydney.

"I don't think the species will be lost, but it's the biggest threat to the commercial raising of pigs we've ever seen," he said. "And it's the biggest threat to any commercial livestock of our generation."

... The price of pork has nearly doubled from a year ago in China, which produces and consumes two-thirds of the world's pork. And China's efforts to buy pork abroad, as well as smaller outbreaks in other countries, are pushing up global prices.

"There are some shortages in some countries, and there's been some substitutions using other sources of protein, which is driving up the prices of other proteins," said Schipp.

... An emerging issue in the crisis is a potential heparin shortage, Schipp said.

"Most of it is sourced from China, which has been badly hit. There are concerns that this will threaten the global supply of heparin," Schipp said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1814 on: October 31, 2019, 10:28:57 AM »
^^
Any chance of this bug infecting long pig?


On a more positive note, Bruce may soon be wearing a top hat. ::)
Terry

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1815 on: October 31, 2019, 12:28:53 PM »
Not unless it mutates.  :o

... African swine fever is a viral disease of pigs and wild boar that is usually deadly. There are neither vaccines nor cures. For this reason, it has serious socio-economic consequences in affected countries. Humans are not susceptible to the disease.

Symptoms include fever, loss of appetite, lack of energy, abortions, internal bleeding, with haemorrhages visible on the ears and flanks. Sudden death may occur. Severe strains of the virus are generally fatal (death occurs within 10 days). Animals infected with mild strains of African swine fever virus may not show typical clinical signs.

The virus is from the same family as yellow fever, Hep C, and dengue fever. It shows how bad a pandemic can be.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

SteveMDFP

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1816 on: October 31, 2019, 01:29:46 PM »
Not unless it mutates.  :o

... African swine fever is a viral disease of pigs and wild boar that is usually deadly. There are neither vaccines nor cures. For this reason, it has serious socio-economic consequences in affected countries. Humans are not susceptible to the disease. . . .

African Swine Fever (not to be confused with swine flu) is likely mostly an economic threat.  it's true that there's no vaccine in production, but a candidate vaccine looks very promising in clinical trials.  See:

Vaccine for African swine fever may save our bacon
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/05/190507110426.htm

It's orally administered, and seems to be a live-attenuated strain. Shed then in the stool, pigs can transfer the strain to each other.  On this, I'm sure the government of China is going whole hog.

dnem

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1817 on: October 31, 2019, 03:13:49 PM »
^^
Any chance of this bug infecting long pig?


On a more positive note, Bruce may soon be wearing a top hat. ::)
Terry

FYI: "Long pig is an antiquated term for human flesh, eaten by cannibals. Purportedly, the term long pig is a translation of a phrase used in the Pacific Islands for human flesh intended for consumption."

I assumed that's what Terry meant but was not familiar with the term and looked it up.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1818 on: October 31, 2019, 05:04:40 PM »
The pigs I raise are a rare breed and the genetics available can not be imported from countries with ASF. I have recently spent extra money to improve my herds genetic diversity by buying a few more boars and sows from different breed lines  because when ASF makes it to the U.S. I will have to restrict my breeding program to the animals on my farm. This is called a closed herd.
 Because all the pigs in Southern Calif. are slaughtered at one slaughterhouse the chance of vectoring a bad disease is centered on that facility. The trailer I haul pigs in is washed and Clorox sprayed on the tires every time I visit . There is a chance some rare breeds may go locally extinct as whole herds get slaughtered when exposed to ASF.  Most small farmers can’t afford to keep a closed herd because it requires keeping so many breeding animals . Most of the genetics for Mangalitza pigs in the U.S. is held by less than a dozen farms and if those farms get hit there wouldn’t be enough genetic diversity to keep the breed going here in North America.
 Diversity in livestock breeds is wholly an individual choice as there is no program in the U.S. industrial meat industry that promotes diversity. Same in U.S. vegetable seed stocks, only small farmers bother with heirlooms and keeping the seed bank viable. Only small farmers bother to save seeds or grow exotic breeds of livestock . From a farmers perspective the world is shrinking.
 

TerryM

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1819 on: October 31, 2019, 10:19:47 PM »
^^
I'm amazed that there is only a single pork abattoir in all of So. Cal. Would there be any upside to forming some type of co-op with a slaughterhouse available only to small herds, or possibly only for closed herds?
A friend's chicken hatcheries were threatened by Newcastle back in the (70s)? and I remember the strain he was under.


This too shall pass
Terry

sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1820 on: November 01, 2019, 06:07:31 AM »
Salatin has described detail of how difficult it it to get USDA approval of a slaughter facility. That was in another state, but i imagine CA is worse. I have helped set up one such, for fowl, in PA and it is quite difficult.

sidd

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1821 on: November 01, 2019, 09:31:46 AM »
... Most of the genetics for Mangalitza pigs in the U.S. is held by less than a dozen farms and if those farms get hit there wouldn’t be enough genetic diversity to keep the breed going here in North America.
Bruce,
Do you breed mangalitza or some sort of hybrid mangalitza crossed with other pig varieties?

Bruce Steele

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1822 on: November 01, 2019, 03:17:56 PM »
El CID, Yes I have a herd of purebred swallow belly mangalitsa. I really enjoy them, pigs are very nice to spend my time with. I am headed to Windsor , in the fire zone, to pick up a new boar and a couple gilts that were from the last Hungarian imports the U.S. got before ASF.
 USDA slaughter and butchery costs me about $500 per pig. That is about how much a commercial hog sells for so most all pork consumed in Calif. is grown in the Midwest and shipped here. My feed costs, land costs, vet bills and USDA slaughter/ butcher are far higher than those same costs where pigs are currently grown. There aren’t any ways to fix the problem except finding local vegetable discards to cut down feed costs and charge chefs a lot for supporting local well fed happy hogs for double or triple what they would pay for confinement hogs.
 Even if I could start a slaughter facility I couldn’t kill pigs every day . Worst part of my job is delivering pigs to the slaughterhouse.

https://winfieldfarm.us/store/?page_id=1171

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1823 on: November 01, 2019, 04:16:06 PM »
Mangalitsa almost died out here in Hungary during socialism, as they were deemed not very "effective". However, since cca 2000 it became trendy for high-end restaurants to serve mangalitsa, so there are more breeders. Unfortunately as you probably know, we have already been hit hard by swine fever, so much so, that we have all sorts of signs in the forest to report dead wild boar to the authorities.
 
I actually know noone though who breeds exclusively mangalitsa so i don't know how many are infected...but I have a friend who has a lot of water buffalos (and many other animals), he's quite happy with those :) these water buffalos are even more hardy than mangalitsa, they are out basically in the "wild", here is a short video of his farm: (i think there is a mangalitsa at 4:24)


vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1824 on: November 01, 2019, 06:12:24 PM »
Use of Neonicotinoids on Rice Paddies Linked to Fishery Collapse in Japan
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-neonicotinoids-rice-paddies-linked-fishery.html

A team of researchers with members affiliated with several institutions in Japan has found what they describe as compelling evidence of two fisheries collapsing due to use of neonicotinoid pesticides by nearby rice farmers.



... Back in 1993, fishermen working at two fisheries on Lake Shinji, Japan found that yields had suddenly dropped dramatically. The reason for it was not known but many suspected it was tied to the use of neonicotinoid pesticides by nearby farmers—a new practice. To find out if that was indeed the case, the researchers gathered data obtained by other teams studying the lake over a period ten years before and after the collapse of the fisheries.



In looking at the results, the researchers found that the year following the first use of neonicotinoid pesticides in the local area, the amount of zooplankton in the lake nosedived. This was followed by a very swift drop in population of the fish that fed on them. More specifically, they found that zooplankton biomass shrank by approximately 83 percent. That year the smelt harvest was just 22 tons, a dramatic drop from an average haul of 240 tons each year.



The researchers note that they also studied other factors that might have led to fishery collapse, such as nutrient depletion or changes in oxygen or salt concentrations. They report that they were not able to find any evidence showing that there might have been something other than pesticides killing the food fish ate leaving them to starve. They conclude that the evidence strongly suggests it was the introduction of neonicotinoid pesticides into the lake environment that led to the die-offs.



Masumi Yamamuro et al. Neonicotinoids disrupt aquatic food webs and decrease fishery yields, Science (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1825 on: November 02, 2019, 10:23:00 PM »
Two nice papers for USA

1) Marston et al. 2015 on "virtual"  (incorporated in food and other material) groundwater transfer

doi: 10.1073/pnas.1500457112

I attach fig 1

2) Lin et al, 2019 on food flow

doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab29ae

I attach fig 5 B showing top 5%  food flow at county level

Both open access.

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1826 on: November 03, 2019, 01:10:36 AM »
U.S.

Salmonella Dublin Linked To Ground Beef: One Dead, Nine Sick
Quote
One person has died and eight people have been hospitalized due to salmonella linked to ground beef, the Center for Disease Control (CDC) said in a statement Friday afternoon.

The statement said that the CDC, the United States Department of Agriculture, and state-level public health and regulatory officials are looking into the outbreak of Salmonella Dublin in six states. Salmonella Dublin is a strain of bacteria often found in cattle, but can also infect humans and cause bloodstream infections.

As of Friday, there have been ten reported cases of the infection linked to ground beef: eight people have gone to the hospital and one person has died. There was one case in Texas, Oklahoma and Iowa, two in California and Kansas, and three in Colorado. One person died in California.

Officials have not yet identified a single common source of the ground beef that is believed to be spreading the Salmonella Dublin based on epidemiological and laboratory evidence. According to the CDC, the sick individuals reported eating different brands of ground beef at different locations. ...
https://time.com/5716929/salmonella-outbreak-ground-beef/
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bluesky

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1827 on: November 05, 2019, 12:38:36 AM »
Mid-latitude freshwater availability reduced by projected vegetation responses to climate change
Justin S. Mankin et Nature Geoscience

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0480-x

Abstract
"Plants are expected to generate more global-scale runoff under increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations through their influence on surface resistance to evapotranspiration. Recent studies using Earth System Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ostensibly reaffirm this result, further suggesting that plants will ameliorate the dire reductions in water availability projected by other studies that use aridity metrics. Here we complicate this narrative by analysing the change in precipitation partitioning to plants, runoff and storage in multiple Earth system models under both high carbon dioxide concentrations and warming. We show that projected plant responses directly reduce future runoff across vast swaths of North America, Europe and Asia because bulk canopy water demands increase with additional vegetation growth and longer and warmer growing seasons. These runoff declines occur despite increased surface resistance to evapotranspiration and vegetation total water use efficiency, even in regions with increasing or unchanging precipitation. We demonstrate that constraining the large uncertainty in the multimodel ensemble with regional-scale observations of evapotranspiration partitioning strengthens these results. We conclude that terrestrial vegetation plays a large and unresolved role in shaping future regional freshwater availability, one that will not ubiquitously ameliorate future warming-driven surface drying."

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1828 on: November 05, 2019, 07:58:40 PM »
  Europe must act on intensive farming to save wildlife, scientists say

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/05/europe-must-act-on-intensive-farming-to-save-wildlife-scientists-say
  by Fiona Harvey

 Quotes:
The EU’s common agricultural policy (CAP) should be overhauled urgently to stop the intensification of farming practices that is leading to a steep decline in wildlife, scientists from across the bloc have urged.

Five organisations representing more than 2,500 experts have written to Ursula von der Leyen, the incoming president of the European commission, and the European parliament, to demand major changes to the way the CAP operates.

However, the current CAP – which costs EU taxpayers €60bn a year – is “turning rural areas into green deserts of uninhabitable maximum-yield monocultures”, according to the European Ornithologists Union, the European Mammal Foundation, the Societas Europaea Herpetologica, the Societas Europaea Lepidopterologica and Butterfly Conservation Europe.

There is now an “unequivocal scientific consensus” that the plummeting numbers of European farmland birds, populations of which more than halved between 1980 and 2015, and a decline of more than three-quarters among insects in some areas, have happened because of intensified farming, the signatories wrote.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1829 on: November 07, 2019, 05:55:54 PM »
Cereal Killer's Origins Could Lead to New Wheat Threat
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-cereal-killer-deadly-wheat-threat.html

Scientists have uncovered the origins of the world's deadliest strain of cereal rust disease which threatens global food security.

... Their works shows that the devastating Ug99 strain of the wheat stem rust fungus (named for its discovery and naming in Uganda in 1999) was created when different rust strains simply fused to create a new hybrid strain.

This process is called somatic hybridisation and enables the fungi to merge their cells together and exchange genetic material without going through the complex sexual reproduction cycle.

The study found half of Ug99's genetic material came from a strain that has been in southern Africa for more than 100 years and also occurs in Australia.

The discovery shows that other crop-destroying rust strains could hybridise in other parts of the world, and scientists found evidence of this in their study. It also means Ug99 could once again exchange genetic material with different pathogen strains to create a whole new enemy.

"While outbreaks of Ug99 have so far been restricted to Africa and the Middle East, it has been estimated that a nationwide outbreak here could cost Australia up to $500 million in lost production and fungicide use in the first year," Dr. Figueroa said.



Open Access: Feng Li et al. Emergence of the Ug99 lineage of the wheat stem rust pathogen through somatic hybridisation, Nature Communications (2019)
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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1830 on: November 08, 2019, 05:00:56 PM »
Intended to Help Human, Planetary Health, EAT-Lancet Diet Too Costly for 1.6 Billion People
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2019-11-human-planetary-health-eat-lancet-diet.html

Earlier this year, the EAT-Lancet Commission on Food, Planet, Health published recommendations for a universal diet that addresses both human and planetary health. The Commission suggested that adherence to this diet could ensure that our future food systems can sustainably and nutritiously feed the estimated population of 10 billion people in 2050.

The study published today in The Lancet Global Health—from researchers at the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) - sought to address what many felt was one of the main components lacking in the creation of the recommended diet, namely affordability.

The research team found that the EAT-Lancet diet was 64 percent more costly than the lowest-cost combination of foods that would provide a balanced mix of 20 essential nutrients. The EAT-Lancet diet has higher quantities of animal-source foods and fruits and vegetables than the minimum required for nutrient adequacy, and much higher quantities than are now consumed in low-income countries.

"We found that the global median of the proposed diet would cost $2.84 per day as of 2011. In low-income countries, that amounts to 89.1 percent of a household's daily per capita income, which is more than people can actually spend on food. In high-income countries, we found that the EAT-Lancet reference diet would cost 6.1 percent of per-capita income, which is often less than what people now spend on food."

"Although 1.58 billion is a lot of people, it is actually a conservative lower limit on the total number who cannot afford the diet recommended by the EAT-Lancet Commission. The cost of food preparation and of non-food necessities ensure that an even larger number of people cannot afford that kind of healthy diet," said Masters.



Open Access: Kalle Hirvonen et al, Affordability of the EAT–Lancet reference diet: a global analysis, The Lancet Global Health (2019)
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1831 on: November 10, 2019, 12:59:17 AM »
US apple farmers struggle against climate change, floods and drought
Quote
For apples, a warm spell in the winter will force trees to flower prematurely and expose the buds to unpredictable winter frosts, hail and other extreme weather. In some cases, entire trees can become stressed and die.
...
Lack of winter chilling and early bloom in the spring might seem like obvious problems, but climate change also poses a slew of other hardships for apple growers. For instance, warmer nights lead to the spread of pests and other diseases, and hot days in the winter sunburn the apple’s plant tissue.

Warming temperatures also cause significant defects and pigment damage to developed fruit, making it impossible for growers to sell them on the market. If the nights don’t cool down enough, an apple that is supposed to turn red will turn brown or pink instead. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/09/us-apple-farmers-struggle-against-climate-change-floods-and-drought.html
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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1832 on: November 12, 2019, 05:09:20 PM »
Bacteria May Contribute More to Climate Change As Planet Heats Up
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-bacteria-contribute-climate-planet.html

... By releasing more carbon as global temperatures rise, bacteria and related organisms called archaea could increase climate warming at a faster rate than current models suggest. The new research, published today in Nature Communications by scientists from Imperial College London, could help inform more accurate models of future climate warming.

... "In the short term, on a scale of days to hours, individual prokaryotes will increase their metabolism and produce more carbon dioxide. However, there is still a maximum temperature at which their metabolism becomes inefficient.

"In the longer term, over years, these prokaryote communities will evolve to be more efficient at higher temperatures, allowing them to further increase their metabolism and their carbon output.

"Rising temperatures therefore cause a 'double whammy' effect on many prokaryote communities, allowing them to function more efficiently in both the short and long term, and creating an even larger contribution to global carbon and resulting temperatures."

... This reveals that short- and long-term changes to respiration rate will combine to create a larger-than-expected rise in carbon output, which is currently unaccounted for in ecosystem and climate models.

Open Access: Thomas P. Smith et al. Community-level respiration of prokaryotic microbes may rise with global warming, Nature Communications (2019).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1833 on: November 13, 2019, 12:14:54 PM »
Stalled Weather Patterns Will Get Bigger Due to Climate Change
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-stalled-weather-patterns-bigger-due.html

Climate change will increase the size of stalled high-pressure weather systems called "blocking events" that have already produced some of the 21st century's deadliest heat waves, according to a Rice University study.

Atmospheric blocking events are middle-latitude, high-pressure systems that stay in place for days or even weeks. Depending upon when and where they develop, blocking events can cause droughts or downpours and heat waves or cold spells. Blocking events caused deadly heat waves in France in 2003 and in Russia in 2010.

Using data from two sets of comprehensive climate model simulations, Rice fluid dynamicists Ebrahim Nabizadeh and Pedram Hassanzadeh, and colleagues found that the area of blocking events in the northern hemisphere will increase by as much as 17% due to anthropogenic climate change.

A simple formula relates the area of blocking events to the width, latitude and strength of the jet stream, all of which are well-studied and measured.



Ebrahim Nabizadeh et al, Size of the atmospheric blocking events: Scaling law and response to climate change, Geophysical Research Letters (2019).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1834 on: November 13, 2019, 02:27:50 PM »
Climate Change Expected to Shift Location of East Asian Monsoons
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-climate-shift-east-asian-monsoons.html

Berkeley Lab researchers Wenyu Zhou and Da Yang, along with Shang-Ping Xie of Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, used global climate models to study the so-called Hadley cell, which is the name of this tropical atmospheric circulation pattern. Their model results suggest that the East Asian Monsoon will shift geographically as the climate continues to warm, and that enhanced warming at the equator will drive this shift. Their study was published recently in the journal Nature Climate Change.



In the Hadley cell, moist air rises in the deep tropics (blue) while dry air descends in the subtropics (red). In a future warmer climate (dashed lines), the dry areas will expand while the moist areas will contract. The deep-tropical contraction interacts with the subtropical expansion and affects monsoons that occur in Asia, according to a new Berkeley Lab study. Solid lines show today's climate.

... By investigating changes in the Hadley cell during different seasons, the researchers found that the occurrence of monsoon rains will shift towards the equator. "Previous studies suggested that, on average, the Hadley cell will expand poleward in warmer climates. However, we show a different behavior in the summer months—a contraction towards the equator in June-July, due to the effect of the enhanced warming at the equator," said Zhou.

This unexpected contraction could have profound impacts on the subtropical regional climate. Rainfall in East Asia currently peaks in the summer months. "The monsoon is an important water resource to East Asia and large parts of China," said Yang. "So how it moves or changes with climate will have a huge impact on water resource management and on the daily lives of people in these areas."

Looking forward, this study opens the door for new research directions, the researchers say. "We are beginning to investigate the impact on other regional features such as the North-American monsoon and the hurricane tracks," said Zhou. ...

Wenyu Zhou et al, Enhanced equatorial warming causes deep-tropical contraction and subtropical monsoon shift, Nature Climate Change (2019)
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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1835 on: November 13, 2019, 06:09:44 PM »
Overfishing Large, Predatory Fish Leaves China's Bohai Sea With Only Tiny Fish
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-overfishing-large-predatory-fish-china.html

... A new study by scientists with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Sea Around Us initiative at the University of British Columbia's Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries shows that industrial fisheries have severely affected food webs in the Bohai Sea, with organisms that occupy lower levels in the food web becoming more common than larger predators.

"By analyzing data from scientific surveys for the period 1959 to 2010, we noticed that while in the mid-20th century, more than 80 percent of the biomass in the ecosystem of the Bohai Sea was composed of large fishes such as Japanese seabass or yellow croaker, by the decade of 2010, these large fishes comprised about 50 percent of the biomass with smaller or mixed fishes making up the other half," said Cui Liang, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and lead author of the study.

Liang and her colleague Daniel Pauly, who is the principal investigator of the Sea Around Us initiative, compared the numbers from the surveys to official fisheries data and discovered that the phenomenon of lower-trophic-level fish and invertebrates becoming more abundant was more pronounced when looking at the actual fish populations than when looking at fishery catches.

In their review, the researchers found that the fishing-down effect has been so pervasive in the Bohai Sea that the extirpation of large fish has even impacted the base of the food chain, as it has also caused a decline in phytoplankton, the microorganisms in charge of fueling the entire marine food web.

Cui Liang et al. Masking and unmasking fishing down effects: The Bohai Sea (China) as a case study, Ocean & Coastal Management (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1836 on: November 19, 2019, 10:30:40 PM »
Blowing, blowing, gone: soil erosion in north dakota

"Prior to settlement, North Dakota’s original topsoil ranged from 18” deep (organic level 6%) in the western part of the state, and sometimes 3’ deep (organic level 7.5%) in the eastern side. About 200 years of zero-level soil loss, as well as continued phosphorus application would be required to take today’s North Dakota ground back to 1890 nutrient levels, Franzen projects. “Right now, we’re down to 6” deep and 2% organic matter in some spots. It’s all gone and in some places, the losses are still going on.” "

https://www.agweb.com/article/gone-wind-how-lose-lifetime-soil-health

sidd

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1837 on: November 24, 2019, 05:01:50 PM »
‘Not Enough Pork in the World’ To Deal With China’s Demand for Meat
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/23/china-pigs-african-swine-fever-pork-shortage-inflation



Since August 2018, when China notified the World Organisation for Animal Health that African swine fever (ASF) was in the country, the disease has spread with extraordinary speed.

Some 40% of Chinese pigs – hundreds of millions of animals – have now been lost, and the result has been a chronic shortage of pork and rocketing prices.

“The producer price has risen 125% since July,” said Rupert Claxton of international food consultancy Girafood. That increase has helped drive up China’s inflation rate, which in October broke through the government target of 3% to hit 3.8%.

Pork imports into China have also rocketed. In September last year 94 million kg were shipped in, but the ASF crisis has pushed imports to 161 million kg this year and officials are now rushing to certify farms in Brazil, Ireland and several other countries for export at an unprecedented rate to satisfy demand. Two weeks ago, they lifted a ban on imports from Canada.

As a result pork prices are rising outside China too. Europe has seen a jump of at least 35% since the beginning of the year.
Quote
... “The problem is that total global pork exports in 2018 were 8 million tonnes, and China is short 24 million,” ... “There just isn’t enough pork in the world to fill the gap.”
ASF is now reported in more than 40 countries, and earlier this week was discovered to have leapt 300km across Poland from its easternmost provinces to farms near its western border.

Alistair Driver of UK monthly magazine Pig World said this was extremely concerning. “That is just 70km from the German border, and Germany is one of the largest pork exporters in the world.”

... “In the UK it is now more a case of being prepared for it to arrive than trying to shut it out,” said Zoe Davies of the National Pig Association. She worries about the large number of smallholders in the UK “who aren’t taking this seriously, who believe that pigs are there to recycle kitchen scraps. Just one pet pig [with the virus] and that’s the UK shut down.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1838 on: November 25, 2019, 01:59:37 PM »
Beef Industry Battles to Scrub Polluter Image as Vegan Burgers Boom
Quote
The American beef industry, wary of the vegan-burger craze that’s sweeping the nation, is trying to scrub its image as a greenhouse-gas-emitting machine.

With big retailers and investors pressing companies to improve their footprints, giants like Tyson Foods Inc. and Cargill Inc. are promising ambitious reductions in emissions, including in supply chains. Chief sustainability officers are popping up all over meat C-suites, and social media ads are touting beef’s misunderstood health benefits.

It’s an uphill battle. For more than a decade, studies have piled on exhorting people to eat less beef for environmental and health reasons. By some measures, agriculture accounts for more global greenhouse gas emissions than transport, thanks in part to livestock production.

Meanwhile, plant alternatives have captured the zeitgeist as more Americans dub themselves flexitarians -- people who regularly substitute other foods for meat. Companies like Beyond Meat Inc., which saw its shares more than triple since its blistering initial public offering, are riding the anti-meat wave, extolling the virtues of vegan products that are showing up on menus of nationwide chains including TGI Fridays.

The rise of meat alternatives could start cutting into beef’s livelihood, if the recent decline of milk is any lesson. In less than a decade, alternatives came out of nowhere to steal significant market share from conventional cow’s milk, a shift that contributed to the bankruptcy filing this month of behemoth Dean Foods Co. Today, milk alternatives account for 13% of the market.

Still, beef consumption is robust in North America, and meat-eating in general is gaining globally. But the concerns come over how quickly vegan offerings are growing and the rise of the multi-trillion market for green and sustainable assets. Deborah Perkins, global head of food and agribusiness at ING Wholesale Banking, says the industry will have to keep on working to improve its footprint. …
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-11-25/big-beef-battles-to-scrub-polluter-image-as-vegan-burgers-boom
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TerryM

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1839 on: November 25, 2019, 02:12:14 PM »
With beef and now pork being linked to global warming, it might be time to raise a herd of goats. :-\


Terry

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1840 on: November 25, 2019, 05:47:24 PM »
Industrial agribusiness is a completely different (and more destructive, lower morality) way of farming than organic, agroforestry, permaculture farming or the small scale farming of old. I think it is very important to make that distinction when discussing agriculture.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1841 on: November 29, 2019, 07:42:01 PM »
Global Warming and Possible Simultaneous Impact on Agriculture and Marine Fisheries
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-simultaneous-impact-global-agriculture-marine.html


Dimensions of agriculture and marine fisheries vulnerability to climate change

... Researchers have sought to demonstrate what will happen to our two main sources of food—agriculture and fisheries—when looked at simultaneously. They note that other studies have looked at the impact of climate change on both sources, but until now, none of them have looked at what will happen to food availability when both are impacted at the same time.


Vulnerability of agriculture and marine fisheries as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to the impacts of climate change.

... The researchers report that the model showed that the worst-case scenario was rather dire—90 percent of the global population will be living in an area where production from agriculture and fisheries is falling by the end of this century. More specifically, the model showed a 25 percent reduction in average global productivity in the agriculture sector. For fisheries, the model showed declines of up to 60 percent. The researchers note that the model also showed different outcomes based on possible global warming mitigation efforts. They also noted that poorer countries will on average be more strongly impacted than richer, more advanced countries.

Open Access: Lauric Thiault et al. Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries, Science Advances (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1842 on: November 30, 2019, 04:55:05 PM »
'They're Trying to Wipe Us Off the Map.' Small American Farmers Are Nearing Extinction
Quote
Kalbach, the Iowa corn and soybean farmer, says on the square mile of land where she lives, five farm different families used to grow corn, beans, hay, cattle, and pigs. Over the past 15 years, the other four families have given up and moved away. As farmers sold to bigger operations, the local businesses that were dependent on small farmers went belly-up, too. The place where the Kalbachs buy chemicals is now 75 miles away. Her county’s lone pharmacy closed earlier this year. There is no longer a local place where she can get farm equipment repaired. “All the thousands of farmers that have left the land—all the businesses have gone with them,” she says. ...
https://time.com/5736789/small-american-farmers-debt-crisis-extinction/
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TerryM

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1843 on: November 30, 2019, 05:18:34 PM »
With no business taxes the police are let go, street lights removed, and the sidewalks crumble.
I've seen plenty out West. Not from failed farms so much as the impact of a Walmart opening within an hours drive or Amazon vacuuming up the retail.


Even when viable mines or farms remain, without retail towns rapidly become modern ghost towns.


Once vibrant communities reduced to a struggling service station, a bar and sometimes a cafe. In the space of a decade.


Such is Capitalism
Terry

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1844 on: November 30, 2019, 08:42:42 PM »
Such is the passage of time. Markets change with capitalism or not.  I'm sure there are plenty of socialist and communist ghost towns and even more sure that ghost towns and boom towns have always existed.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1845 on: November 30, 2019, 10:02:55 PM »
The yeoman farmer mystique , self reliance, self sufficiency . The appeal being I think important in building America. The reality has always fallen somehow short. But it is still something to strive for.
As if some of those socialist ghost towns weren’t also filled with people trying to live the same dream?
 There is a cost to reducing everything to it’s corporate relevance and profit and farming/ fishing even if only always marginally is still better than joining .
 
« Last Edit: November 30, 2019, 11:56:27 PM by Bruce Steele »

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1846 on: December 02, 2019, 10:51:23 PM »
A French Fry Shortage Coming After Weak Potato Harvest
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/12/02/a-french-fry-shortage-could-be-coming-after-weak-potato-harvest.html

Cold temperatures and the impact of Hurricane Dorian damage potato crops in the U.S. and Canada.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is estimating that domestic potato output will drop 6.1% this year.

The United Potato Growers of Canada forecasts that about 18% of Manitoba's planted area was left unharvested, according to Bloomberg.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1847 on: December 07, 2019, 07:38:58 PM »
The linked article provides clear warning that climate change and nutrient pollution are both driving oxygen from the oceans, which is threatening many species of fish.  What is not stated is that a some point the loss of fish species will contribute to the stratification of the oceans, as many specifies of fish contribute to the mixing of seawater in the upper levels of the ocean (note that the video imbedded in the article presented a simple/clear message about some of the risks of climate change):

Title: "Climate change: Oceans running out of oxygen as temperatures rise"

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50690995

Extract: "Climate change and nutrient pollution are driving the oxygen from our oceans, and threatening many species of fish.

That's the conclusion of the biggest study of its kind, undertaken by conservation group IUCN.

As more carbon dioxide is released enhancing the greenhouse effect, much of the heat is absorbed by the oceans. In turn, this warmer water can hold less oxygen. The scientists estimate that between 1960 and 2010, the amount of the gas dissolved in the oceans declined by 2%.

That may not seem like much as it is a global average, but in some tropical locations the loss can range up to 40%.

Even small changes can impact marine life in a significant way. So waters with less oxygen favour species such as jellyfish, but not so good for bigger, fast-swimming species like tuna."

Reposting ASLRs post of the article here because this will hurt the fish supplies.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1848 on: December 09, 2019, 06:40:43 PM »
Newly Identified Jet-Stream Pattern May Imperil Global Food Supplies
https://phys.org/news/2019-12-large-atmospheric-jet-stream-global.html

Scientists have identified systematic meanders in the globe-circling northern jet stream that have caused simultaneous crop-damaging heat waves in widely separated breadbasket regions-a previously unquantified threat to global food production that, they say, could worsen with global warming. The research shows that certain kinds of waves in the atmospheric circulation can become amplified and then lock in place for extended periods, triggering the concurrent heat waves. Affected parts of North America, Europe and Asia together produce a quarter of the world food supply. The study appears this week in the journal Nature Climate Change.

... Combing through large amounts of climate data from 1979 to 2018, Kornhuber and colleagues zeroed in on two Rossby waves with specific wavelengths, termed wave-5 and wave-7; that is, north-south wobbles in the jet stream that produce either 5 or 7 peaks and corresponding troughs around the planet's circumference. They found that while waves of lower or higher lengths seem to wobble around randomly, wave-5 and wave-7 patterns can lock into a grid of symmetric, often much larger meanders centered over predictable regions. The wave-5 patterns tend to hover over central North America, eastern Europe and eastern Asia; the wave-7 patterns over western-central North America, western Europe and western Asia. In both cases, the results are the same: hot air swirls up from the south into the peaks, producing abnormal spikes in temperature that can go on for weeks. This in turn reduces rainfall, dries up soils and vegetation, and kills crops in each region.

"Normally, low harvests in one region are expected to be balanced out by good harvests elsewhere," said study coauthor Dim Coumou of the Institute for Environmental Studies at VU University Amsterdam, who has been studying Rossby waves for years. "These waves can cause reduced harvests in several important breadbaskets simultaneously, creating risks for global food production."

Quote
... "We found a 20-fold increase in the risk of simultaneous heat waves in major crop-producing regions when these global-scale wind patterns are in place," ... "Until now, this was an underexplored vulnerability in the food system. During these events there actually is a global structure in the otherwise quite chaotic circulation. The bell can ring in multiple regions at once."


Researchers have identified two wavelengths of meanders in the northern hemisphere jet stream that can cause massive heat waves across several major agricultural regions at once. Here, a wave-7 pattern, which over the past 40 years has hurt crop yields in the red-marked areas of central/west North America, western Europe and western Asia.

The scientists showed that in years when these amplified waves occurred during two or more summer weeks, cereal production went down 4 percent when averaged across all the affected regions, and as much as 11 percent in a single affected region. Food-price spikes often followed. The waves have hit in 1983, 2003, 2006, 2012 and 2018, when many temperature records fell across the United States, Canada, Scandinavia and Siberia. In addition to killing crops, the waves have killed thousands of people, especially in Europe and Russia, where air conditioning is far less common than in North America.

While the study focuses mainly on hot spells in the Rossby waves' northern peaks, it also suggests that opposite extremes can occur in the southerly troughs. A precursor study by Kornhuber and others earlier this year noted that during the 2018 northern heat waves, more southerly regions including the Balkans and Japan saw extraordinary rains and destruction from flooding and landslides. During a 2010 northern heat outbreak in Russia, concurrent flooding on the Indus River in Pakistan displaced millions and destroyed crops.


A wave-5 pattern, which has simultaneously affected crops in central North America, eastern Europe and eastern Asia.

... Many scientists believe that Rossby waves will grow and stall more often as the planet warms. Kornhuber said that this scenario is quite plausible-almost all the global events have occurred since 2000- but that says is not yet enough data to form a consensus on this. Regardless, he said, "even if the frequency or the size of the [Rossby] waves doesn't change, the heat extremes linked to the patterns will become more severe, because the atmosphere as a whole is heating."

Kai Kornhuber, et.al. Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions , Nature Climate Change (2019).

----------------------------------------------------

Climate Change and the Threat to Global Breadbaskets
https://phys.org/news/2019-12-climate-threat-global-breadbaskets.html

In a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, IIASA researcher Franziska Gaupp and colleagues looked at the risk of simultaneous breadbasket failures due to climatic extremes, and how the risk has changed over time. "Climatic connections between global phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscilliation (ENSO) and regional climate extremes such as Indian heatwaves, or flood risks around the globe pose a risk to the global food system," notes lead author Gaupp. "Climatic shocks to agricultural production contribute to food price spikes and famine, with the potential to trigger other systemic risks, including political unrest and migration. This analysis can provide the basis for a more efficient allocation of resources to contingency plans and strategic crop reserves that would enhance the resilience of the global food system."

The study looks at climatic and crop yield data for the main agricultural regions within the highest crop producing countries by mass from 1967 to 2012. The analysis shows that there has been a significant increase in the probability of multiple global breadbasket failures for particularly wheat, maize, and soybeans. For soybeans, for example, the implications of crop failure in all major breadbaskets associated with climate risk would be at least 12.55 million tons of crop losses. This exceeds the 7.2 million tons of losses in 1988-1989, one of the largest historical soybean production shocks. ...

Gaupp, F., Hall, J., Hochrainer-Stigler, S. et al. Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2019)

-------------------------------------

Favorable Environments for Large Hail Increasing Across U.S.
https://phys.org/news/2019-12-favorable-environments-large-hail.html

A group of atmospheric scientists have uncovered an environmental footprint that could help explain why the cost of hailstorm damage is rapidly increasing in the United States.



The scientists, led by Brian Tang at the University at Albany, combined 38 years of weather data—from 1979 to 2017—to determine how many days per year had favorable conditions for large hail, greater than the size of a golf ball, across the U.S.

Consistent increases over the 38-year period were observed east of the Rocky Mountains, including a 10 to 15-day uptick in parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. Most of the Northeast also experienced an increase of about three to eight days. The findings were consistent with increases in reported large hailstones in these regions.

A report in 2018 found that each year since 2008 has produced well over $10 billion in U.S. insured losses from severe thunderstorms. That's more than twice the inflation-adjusted damage rate that was typical in the early 2000s and more than four times the rate seen in the 1980s. Hail makes up the majority of these losses, typically between 50 percent and 80 percent. Total damages from hail, including uninsured losses, most likely are varying between $12 and $20 billion per year.


Trends in annual large hail environment days.

Open Access: Brian H. Tang et al. Trends in United States large hail environments and observations, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2019)
« Last Edit: December 09, 2019, 07:30:55 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1849 on: December 10, 2019, 07:36:01 AM »
Well, hello there. Big Ag is waking up to getting some money outta soil sequestration.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/09/farmers-climate-change-074024

"The mighty American Farm Bureau Federation, which boasts nearly 6 million members, even promoted the video "



That sprayer system shown in the beginning of the video is draining the ogallala aquifer complex dry to grow corn/soy in the desert. Draining the ogallala is not a good idea even to build carbon in the soil. Lets hope he finds a better way, one that might even regenerate aquifer.

sidd