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Author Topic: Impact of aircraft flights on ice melting  (Read 1904 times)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Impact of aircraft flights on ice melting
« Reply #50 on: July 20, 2020, 06:10:39 PM »
It is strange to look at PIOMAS data. This is model data with a large error. If you want to prove that greenhouse gases are a major contributor to ice reduction, take annual sea ice data.

2019 beat 2017 by 90 thousand km2

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Impact of aircraft flights on ice melting
« Reply #51 on: July 20, 2020, 06:30:48 PM »
I am so sure about prevalence of cooling from contrails because i've spent serious amount of time digging into the matter. The information i provided in the above post is but a tip of an iceberg of knowledge i accumulated. May i offer you to research the subject of global dimming in general, and reported role of contrails in it in particular. Warning: you will definitely find contradicting statements and papers if you would try, and you will need good methods of deducting which ones are false, if the goal is to obtain any good knowledge. It will most likely take months if not years to make any good progress in understanding it, - at least, took for me.

- solar cycle is not "13...16" years, which you stated seeing you used word "equal", - it's 11 years;

- we know that "... solar luminosity is an estimated 0.07 percent brighter during the mid-cycle solar maximum than the terminal solar minimum". I.e., the difference is less than 1/1000th. Blaming solar cycles for major, and more importantly unprecedented and clearly non-rhythmic (seeing back to 1980s and 1990s) changes in minimum sea ice volume is therefore massively wrong;

- while it's true that short-wave radiation (UV, X-ray) has major, solar-cycle variable effect on Earth's upper athmosphere, any idea that this process through some unknown cause-effect chain would cause the revert of the trend i mentioned crashes into the same argument: if this would be the main cause, then we would clearly see 11-year pattern in minimum arctic sea ice: the loss would occur in "dips and recoveries" manner, or at very least "dips and pauses", over the decades since 1979. But we don't. This reversal is one unique event in the history of satellite observations, so massive that it also is clearly reflected by extent annual minimums as well, with 2012 to this day holding the minimum record.


There are scientific studies that suggest that the weather in the Arctic is associated with solar cycles. For instance:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5861038/

Quote
Published online 2018 Mar 20. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-22854-0
PMCID: PMC5861038
PMID: 29559646
Solar cyclic variability can modulate winter Arctic climate

Abstract
This study investigates the role of the eleven-year solar cycle on the Arctic climate during 1979–2016. It reveals that during those years, when the winter solar sunspot number (SSN) falls below 1.35 standard deviations (or mean value), the Arctic warming extends from the lower troposphere to high up in the upper stratosphere and vice versa when SSN is above. The warming in the atmospheric column reflects an easterly zonal wind anomaly consistent with warm air and positive geopotential height anomalies for years with minimum SSN and vice versa for the maximum. Despite the inherent limitations of statistical techniques, three different methods – Compositing, Multiple Linear Regression and Correlation – all point to a similar modulating influence of the sun on winter Arctic climate via the pathway of Arctic Oscillation. Presenting schematics, it discusses the mechanisms of how solar cycle variability influences the Arctic climate involving the stratospheric route. Compositing also detects an opposite solar signature on Eurasian snow-cover, which is a cooling during Minimum years, while warming in maximum. It is hypothesized that the reduction of ice in the Arctic and a growth in Eurasia, in recent winters, may in part, be a result of the current weaker solar cycle.


And then I will note that changes in solar luminosity can have an effect not only through the influence of heat, but also through changes in magnetic fields.


And finally a question on the topic. Are there any scientific works that directly prove that airplanes save ice, and do not accelerate its melting?

I'm new to the topic. But I could find only one scientific paper, which says that airplanes accelerate the melting of ice. Sound like a scientific paper that says airplanes save ice? Give me a link?