Arctic sea ice in the ESAS region and marine regime changes

[prokaryotes]

With current sea ice records shattered already during the midst of the season, as well pronounced in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf ESAS region - basically just open waters, we ought to be particular cautious about the current environmental change opening up in front of our eyes.

via https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1284595460766707712

This scenario is now further fueled by prolonged record setting heatwaves. ..prolonged high average temperatures over 6 months and the record-breaking high of 38 ℃ recorded in Verkhoyansk on 20 June - a town roughly 600 km from the ESAS coast line. http://climatestate.com/2020/07/19/further-evidence-suggests-arctic-ocean-methane-storage-getting-more-unstable

Baked by midsummer sun, Arctic sea ice could face worst losses on record

Relentless high pressure and cloud-free skies have allowed the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice to plummet to its lowest mid-July extent on record. The persistent pattern sets the stage for what could be unprecedented losses by September – a long-feared next step in the Arctic’s erratic, climate-change–fueled lurch toward a potential “blue ocean” mode. https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/baked-by-midsummer-sun-arctic-sea-ice-could-face-worst-losses-on-record/

NSIDC: Air temperatures at the 925 mb level (about 2,500 feet above sea level), as averaged over the first half of July, were unusually high over the central Arctic Ocean—up to 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) (Figure 2b). These above average temperatures were associated with high sea level pressure, centered over the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas (Figure 2c).

Arctic temperatures along the Russian coast were near to slightly above average. This is a sharp change from June, when, as part of the Siberian heat wave that has garnered much attention in the media, temperatures along the Siberian coast of the eastern Laptev Sea were 8 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit) above average.

It is likely these high temperatures, combined with ice motion away from the coast, initiated early ice retreat along the Russian coast, leading to the present low ice extent (Figure). Based on imagery from AMSR-2 processed by colleagues at the University of Bremen, the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast appears to be largely open. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/07/siberian-downward-slide/

Further Evidence suggests Arctic Ocean Methane Storage getting Unstable

At the ocean and atmosphere interface, the upper layer albedo effect vanishes with a lack of sea ice cover, subsequently creating a warmer surface layer, and perhaps altering the halocline https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/halocline saltiness, temperature gradients, currents - shifting into a mode of a more productive melting regime.

The authors of the 2019 French study, Using ship-borne observations of methane isotopic ratio in the Arctic Ocean to understand methane sources in the Arctic, noted, ‘..in addition to increased CH4 emissions from wetlands and thawing permafrost, increasing ocean temperatures could lead to the destabilization of methane hydrates on the Arctic continental shelf, potentially emitting large quantities of CH4.’

Further previous research highlights a new mechanism for subsea permafrost deglaciation

The scientists found that one of the reasons for extensive methane release from the bottom sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is the destabilization of underwater permafrost gas hydrates that interact with the salt solutions (sea water) migrating into the thawing submarine permafrost. http://climatestate.com/2019/06/19/new-mechanism-for-methane-hydrate-dissociation/

Salinity at 34m, jul18 2018-2020

New research explores how lower-latitude oceans drive complex changes in the Arctic Ocean, pushing the region into a new reality distinct from the 20th-century norm. https://uaf-iarc.org/2020/07/10/arctic-ocean-changes-driven-by-sub-arctic-seas/

[prokaryotes]

Made a video touching on this topic

[FishOutofWater]

Good to see you back, Pro K. There are papers out already about the increase in mid-deep water formation in the Nansen basin. I would expect this years melting season to increase the process of sinking modified Atlantic water along the Siberian continental shelf margin. There's a massive amount of fresh water on the Canadian side of the Arctic ocean, so I would not expect water in the Atlantic layer to start overturning on that side nor would I expect a "blue ocean event" this year. There's too much cold fresh water and ice remaining between the pole and Canada this year.

Increased mid-deep water formation and Atlantification of the Arctic is a serious climate problem because of the heat involved and the effect on the polar vortex and jet stream. We don't need to get a blue ocean to have very serious climate consequences.

[prokaryotes]

Good to see you back, Pro K. There are papers out already about the increase ... We don't need to get a blue ocean to have very serious climate consequences.

Thanks, and for pointing out the various other variables involved, and the obvious. Though, perhaps the discussion surrounding this future event can yield some more attention from other people, and perhaps this way subsequently generating some more actions towards addressing the climate to keep this region in check.

[Freegrass]

What to think about the Bering Strait current turning left towards the ESS? I didn't know this could happen. How unusual is this?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=currents/orthographic=-169.10,67.90,3000

[prokaryotes]

What to think about the Bering Strait current turning left towards the ESS? I didn't know this could happen. How unusual is this?

I don't know, is it really flowing into that region? Just started reading about it here, and NSIDC had something recently:

The Dominant Role of the East Siberian Sea in Driving the Oceanic Flow Through the Bering Strait—Conclusions From GRACE Ocean Mass Satellite Data and In Situ Mooring Observations Between 2002 and 2016

..suggesting that East Siberian Sea has an over 5 times stronger control on the GRACE Ocean Bottom Pressure anomalies (OBP) pattern than the Bering Sea Shelf.

But how does this pattern relate to the flow in the strait? ... that the Arctic (in particular, the East Siberian Sea) has a greater control on the throughflow than hitherto recognized. In essence, it suggests that the Pacific‐Arctic pressure head variability is driven from the Arctic; i.e., that changes in the pressure head forcing are more due to changes in the Arctic than changes in the Bering.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075179

Air temperatures at the 925 mb level (about 2,500 feet above sea level), as averaged over the first half of July, were unusually high over the central Arctic Ocean—up to 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) (Figure 2b). These above average temperatures were associated with high sea level pressure, centered over the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/07/siberian-downward-slide/

[FishOutofWater]

Freegrass, that region became ice free and salinity rose as waves and winds mixed up saltier water from below. The current did not reverse. The water is a little bit deeper where the salinity rose than it s further west on the Siberian shelf where river water dominates.

[Tony Mcleod]

"Made a video touching on this topic"

That's a fascinating and very well put together documentary prokaryotes, is it actually yours?

[prokaryotes]

"Made a video touching on this topic"

That's a fascinating and very well put together documentary prokaryotes, is it actually yours?

Thank you, and yes, running the CS YT channel since 2010.

[Freegrass]

Freegrass, that region became ice free and salinity rose as waves and winds mixed up saltier water from below. The current did not reverse. The water is a little bit deeper where the salinity rose than it s further west on the Siberian shelf where river water dominates.

So am I to ignore what I see on Nullschool? The current they are showing is indeed reversed, and is now flowing into the ESS.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-175.02,71.86,3000