Author Topic: Quick and dirty poll on JAXA minimum extent rank in 2020 (Read 3645 times)

Paddy · « **on:** July 23, 2020, 01:06:44 PM »

Just a quick and dirty poll to keep people entertained until the August polls open up.

gerontocrat · « **Reply #1 on:** July 23, 2020, 01:15:28 PM »

I say 2nd.

No confidence.

HapHazard · « **Reply #2 on:** July 23, 2020, 01:26:34 PM »

I voted lowest. Confidence level is exactly 1.3333 beers more than gerontocrat's level.

I feel it'll be a photo finish. It's down to the weather & how boring/exciting it'll be, but I think there's more wild cards in the deck these days than ever before.

be cause · « **Reply #3 on:** July 23, 2020, 01:28:42 PM »

simply .. No. 1 .. unless weather is cancelled For a month . Instead the weather just seems to be 'warming up ' .. b.c.

oren · « **Reply #4 on:** July 23, 2020, 01:31:15 PM »

I am 99% confident of passing 2019. Passing 2012 is somewhat less than 50%. Voted 2nd.

werther · « **Reply #5 on:** July 23, 2020, 01:47:05 PM »

2,9 Mkm2 ... out of July momentum and May preparation

Simon · « **Reply #6 on:** July 23, 2020, 01:59:09 PM »

This is fun

20% chance of 2012 record being obliterated

60% chance of new record low but only just

20% chance of a new 2nd place narrowly failing to beat 2012

glennbuck · « **Reply #7 on:** July 23, 2020, 02:32:13 PM »

2.9 m km^2 to 3.10 m km^2, lets hope we are not voting on a B.O.E for 2020, by August 14th!

igs · « **Reply #8 on:** July 23, 2020, 02:39:17 PM »

Voted 2nd with about 60% confidence level because CAA and Beaufort will certainly have to let go a lot of ice but hardly sufficient to pass 2012.

On the other hand I consider any idea to remain above 4M km2 as very far fetched not to say futile.

Tom · « **Reply #9 on:** July 23, 2020, 03:14:11 PM »

Voted lowest. No confidence at all due to “weather”!

But we only need slightly above average melt to get first (2.8% - thanks gerontocrat) and this seems more likely than not given the melting momentum / heat in the system. Also hycom showing thin ice on the pacific side.

KenB · « **Reply #10 on:** July 23, 2020, 03:33:51 PM »

Voted lowest. Not much confidence.

Got up this morning to see another century+ loss for NSIDC extent and ~~it now seems possible that it will get from 10M to 6M in 30 days (9+7+7+7), and in 31 for sure~~. Looking at Jim Pettit's graph (http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fiwantsomeproof.com%2Fextimg%2Fsie_nsidc_max_min_plus_step_days.png&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNG1aFMGRWYQIkopnf2mhxYVOYLvEw), the previous record for any 4M drop (between integer millions), was 38 days between 11M and 7M in 2013. So my very naive intuition says that all that velocity implies lots of momentum (of some kind).

[added later - I had my data sources mixed up; NSIDC extent is still quite a ways from 6M and almost certainly won't get there even in two days. But it will still break the 38 day record, I'm almost certain.]

Avalonian · « **Reply #11 on:** July 23, 2020, 03:35:05 PM »

If August is a meteorological dud, then with the warm surrounding water (etc.) we should be somewhere around the record (probably a bit above). If there are more fireworks to come, then 2012 is left high and dry. On balance, I'm about 70% sure the record will go. Which means, of course, absolutely zilch.

Alison · « **Reply #12 on:** July 23, 2020, 07:48:05 PM »

I voted 1 because the 2012 record is getting old in terms of climate dominoes. I’m also impressed that in terms of decadel averages 2020 looks to be falling just where the 2020s should. Lastly, after watching 2007 and 2012, I am getting old and want to see something happen which just might spur some positive change...

Stephan · « **Reply #13 on:** July 23, 2020, 09:27:38 PM »

I voted for 2^nd rank. This is in line with my bet on the 4 ± 0.25 M km² bin for the JAXA minimum poll started by Juan.

Jacobus · « **Reply #14 on:** July 24, 2020, 04:28:32 AM »

High confidence 2020 ends up well below 2019. Medium confidence it will surpass 2012. There is a long way to go yet. That said, I voted for second.

miki · « **Reply #15 on:** July 24, 2020, 05:54:51 AM »

The lowest. Sure.
Unless a miracle occurs.

Wherestheice · « **Reply #16 on:** July 24, 2020, 06:17:40 AM »

best case, 2nd place, worst case, smash the 2012 record and make it look like nothing

Richard Rathbone · « **Reply #17 on:** July 24, 2020, 02:07:46 PM »

Its getting close to 50 days from the minimum and Slater's method is saying 4.39 for Sept 11th, which doesn't bode well for a first or second place finish. I'm taking the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and all the rest bin.

Tor Bejnar · « **Reply #18 on:** July 24, 2020, 05:31:08 PM »

I thought it in June and I think it today:

Paddy · « **Reply #19 on:** July 26, 2020, 11:46:59 PM »

Quote from: Richard Rathbone on July 24, 2020, 02:07:46 PM

Its getting close to 50 days from the minimum and Slater's method is saying 4.39 for Sept 11th, which doesn't bode well for a first or second place finish. I'm taking the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and all the rest bin.

Interesting - why do you think the Slater model is predicting less melt to come this year than was yet to come on the same day in any of the last ten?

kassy · « **Reply #20 on:** July 27, 2020, 01:29:46 PM »

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/Slater_AGU_2013_poster.pdf

The model basically runs on data from the last 9 years so things that are very unusual this year should make a difference. It was much sunnier then usual in the Arctic this july so that will throw it of a bit.

And then there must be some breaking point in the ice related to the remaining support from old ice which could factor in.

binntho · « **Reply #21 on:** July 27, 2020, 01:45:59 PM »

I think particularly the Beaufort is confusing the model. Much more ice there than usual.

Richard Rathbone · « **Reply #22 on:** July 27, 2020, 02:12:17 PM »

Quote from: Paddy on July 26, 2020, 11:46:59 PM

Quote from: Richard Rathbone on July 24, 2020, 02:07:46 PM
Its getting close to 50 days from the minimum and Slater's method is saying 4.39 for Sept 11th, which doesn't bode well for a first or second place finish. I'm taking the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and all the rest bin.

Interesting - why do you think the Slater model is predicting less melt to come this year than was yet to come on the same day in any of the last ten?

Because the concentrated ice is more concentrated? The Slater model is a correlation between ice concentration now and extent in 50 days time, so it will be something to do with how the ice is distributed across different concentration categories. Relatively low melt predicted will result from relatively low fraction of current extent in likely to melt concentration ranges.

Paddy · « **Reply #23 on:** August 31, 2020, 05:37:08 AM »

I think we can call this for 2nd place now. Finishing 1st or 3rd would be monumentally unlikely at this point.

dmarcus · « **Reply #24 on:** September 01, 2020, 06:08:32 AM »

2nd place or 1st now guaranteed, with 2nd far, far likelier than 1st.

News:

Poll

Do you expect JAXA minimum extent this year to be:

Author Topic: Quick and dirty poll on JAXA minimum extent rank in 2020 (Read 3645 times)

igs