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When will "small vessels" first be able to traverse the Northwest Passage in 2020?

August 1 - 15
40 (50.6%)
August 16 - 31
35 (44.3%)
September 1 - 15
2 (2.5%)
September 16 - 30
0 (0%)
Extremely late in the season
1 (1.3%)
No way Jose!
1 (1.3%)

Total Members Voted: 76

Voting closed: August 06, 2020, 05:22:01 PM

Author Topic: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?  (Read 6693 times)

RikW

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #50 on: August 06, 2020, 10:38:17 AM »
I'm glad to see it's partially cloud-free so we can see the state of the ice; I will be very surprised, with 9 days to go, if the first bracket won't be 'the winner'

Are openings of the NW-passage recorded somewhere? I did a quick unsuccesful google-attempt

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #51 on: August 06, 2020, 10:43:48 AM »
How to "tie break" between those two though?

Here's a Sentinel 1 image from August 6th.

Bellot Strait looks clear on MODIS, but not on Sentinel 1.

Job (almost) done?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #52 on: August 06, 2020, 10:44:58 AM »
Are openings of the NW-passage recorded somewhere?

Here?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

NACK

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #53 on: August 06, 2020, 11:12:21 AM »
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2332025.3051266484,-1777299.3829747427,-933241.3051266482,-1133203.3829747427&p=arctic&t=2020-08-05-T09%3A04%3A39Z

Yesterday's Worldview seems to indicate that Route 6 is open (barely).
That's the one through Belloit Straight, down and around the backside of King William Island and on through...

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #54 on: August 06, 2020, 12:11:30 PM »
Yesterday's Worldview seems to indicate that Route 6 is open (barely).
That's the one through Belloit Straight

However see my Sentinel 1 image above.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

KenB

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #55 on: August 06, 2020, 03:12:46 PM »
Yesterday's Worldview seems to indicate that Route 6 is open (barely).
That's the one through Belloit Straight

However see my Sentinel 1 image above.

Yet when I look at Sentinel2 (https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser), I see it looks clean as the proverbial whistle.  In fact, it's looked that way for about a month, based on the 7/7 image below the one from a couple days ago.  Wondering what's up?
 
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #56 on: August 07, 2020, 06:33:44 AM »
As anticipated:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2020/#Aug-07

Quote
The Canadian Ice Service have extended their daily coverage....

The Northwest Passage is still not “officially” open!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #57 on: August 07, 2020, 06:37:20 AM »
Wondering what's up?

Me too! However it's hard (for me at least) to imagine an "artifact" which would create that S1 image from open water that's been warming up for weeks.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #58 on: August 08, 2020, 10:05:40 AM »
Still not open according to the CIS charts:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2020/#Aug-08

And Sentinel 2 shows no sign of any ice in Bellot Strait on August 6th:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

KenB

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #59 on: August 08, 2020, 10:32:20 PM »
No joy with today's Queen Maud map, but the patch of ice in the way of the 4/6 route seems to be shrinking a bit every day.  The map also shows an arrow indicating a WSW-ward drift of 2nm/day, which seems like it could only help pull the ice away from the coast.  Today's Worldview image is pretty clear over the CAA, but features a narrow strip of dense cloud right over the area of interest :-(.  Maybe tomorrow, yet again.
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Aluminium

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #60 on: August 08, 2020, 11:06:23 PM »
The map also shows an arrow indicating a WSW-ward drift of 2nm/day
After this melting season we will certainly measure the ice in nanometres (nm). I can assume that you meant nautical miles but this was confusing for me.

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #61 on: August 10, 2020, 10:43:06 AM »
No joy with today's Queen Maud mapes a narrow strip of dense cloud right over the area of interest :-(.  Maybe tomorrow, yet again.

Same again today. Looking at MODIS one would think there's a way through, but the CIS chart shows an area of 7-8/10 hugging the Boothia coast still:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #62 on: August 10, 2020, 10:07:04 PM »
Still no joy from the CIS:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

oren

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #63 on: August 10, 2020, 11:17:33 PM »
A day or two should do it.
Click to zoom and enlarge.

KenB

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #64 on: August 11, 2020, 11:36:43 PM »
I believe we have a winner today.   A narrow band of 40-60% concentration (in yellow) hugs the coast allowing the trip to be completed (finally!).  Surprisingly, I think only route 6 is open, as route 4 is blocked at the top end of Peel Sound, just visible at the top of this chart.

"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #65 on: August 12, 2020, 12:45:35 AM »
I believe we have a winner today.

I've just arrived to impart exactly the same message Ken!

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2020/#Aug-11

Route 6 it is, in the first half of August. How many "winners" do we have in the house?

Will we need a tie break of some sort?
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 10:01:35 AM by Jim Hunt »
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oren

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #66 on: August 12, 2020, 02:21:34 AM »
"The answer is usually Bellot Strait."  8)

(Though I can't say route 6 specifically was my choice)

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #67 on: August 12, 2020, 09:22:42 AM »
"Rather wishing that I'd divided August into three, I'm going to plump for the first half", not to mention "I plump for routes 4 and 6".

However I didn't settle on route 6 until the first CIS chart of the season for Queen Maud was published, which wasn't until a few hours after the deadline.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

KenB

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #68 on: August 12, 2020, 04:37:27 PM »
...
I've settled on the earliest date range and route 6 on the above map.  I could see a number of routes opening at virtually the same time, though, particularly since the maps are only updated weekly. 
Here's me choosing rt. 6 and an early Aug. date.  Mighty convenient that they started doing the updates daily, as otherwise rt. 4 might have snuck in at the same time. 
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

KenB

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #69 on: August 13, 2020, 10:04:17 PM »
Just a quick observation that today, after being "open" for two days, rt. 6 is now closed again, at least for now, according to CIS.  Worldview does indeed show some ice right against the coast.  I doubt this closure will last, but who knows?
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #70 on: August 13, 2020, 11:08:16 PM »
rt. 6 is now closed again, at least for now, according to CIS.

You beat me to it again Ken!
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #71 on: August 14, 2020, 03:27:53 AM »
Would the closure of the passage be related to the garlic press sending ice down the channel between Victoria and Prince of Wales islands? I think this ice flow was what trapped Franklin's ships, but I  suppose we shall never know that for sure.

Juan C. García

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #72 on: August 17, 2020, 05:39:31 AM »
Did it open on August 16?
Congratulations to the winners!
I lost for 1 day.  :P
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #73 on: August 17, 2020, 09:23:35 AM »
Did it open on August 16?

The passage re-opened on August 15th Juan:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2020/#Aug-16

According to the CIS charts at least!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

igs

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #74 on: August 17, 2020, 03:29:07 PM »
Did it open on August 16?

The passage re-opened on August 15th Juan:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2020/#Aug-16

According to the CIS charts at least!


Thanks, saves me a "protest"  ;) ;) ;)

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #75 on: August 27, 2020, 07:36:42 PM »
I fired up MarineTraffic for the first time in a while, and discovered a "pleasure craft" approaching Bellot Strait!

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2020/#Aug-27

Quote
A spokesperson said the Canadian Coast Guard will “monitor the vessel’s transit out of the region.” If Smith is indeed found to have broken the law, they wrote, the agency “will not hesitate to take appropriate enforcement action,” including penalties of up to $5,000.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

wallen

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #76 on: September 06, 2020, 02:26:43 AM »
Looking at Worldview today, it appears the main northwest passage would be passable

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #77 on: September 06, 2020, 04:58:17 AM »
It appears the main northwest passage would be passable

You'd need to be exceedingly adventurous to try it!

https://go.nasa.gov/2ZcVP9A
« Last Edit: September 06, 2020, 10:20:28 AM by Jim Hunt »
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wallen

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« Reply #78 on: September 06, 2020, 07:18:41 AM »
You'd need to be exceedingly adventurous to try it!
[/quote]

I agree it would, but Worldview is an interesting view