Poll: Global NSIDC Sea Ice Area October-November Peak

[John_the_Younger]

I'm sure someone will dig out the numbers...
Here is the graph gerontocrat published on Jul 14 (on which the places were determined):


It might not be obvious, but a first place finish doesn't count as a 2nd place finish, despite the lack of verbiage in the poll.  I'll eat a popsicle if there is an exact tie with a 'competing' year.

The devil is in the details: 
1) A user is a allowed to change their vote.
2) Results will show only after the polls close, but you are free to give your prediction/guess in the comments.
3) 32 days for voting - ending about August 15, depending on where you live.

P.S. If an honorable mention is achieved and voted for, it'll be worth mentioning, as the gap between 2017 and 2019 is slim.

P.P.S. Gerontocrat's "projection" is currently projecting 2nd place with honors - will it deceive us as it did last year?

[gerontocrat]

here are the NSIDC Global Sea Ice Area October / November maxima - KM2
2000    21,993,251
2001    20,882,953
2002    21,327,004
2003    21,336,740
2004    21,842,460
2005    21,611,563
2006    21,512,353
2007    21,017,850
2008    21,878,950
2009    20,688,453
2010    20,828,025
2011    20,656,343
2012    20,430,753
2013    22,228,018
2014    21,620,323
2015    21,142,580
2016    17,613,912
2017    19,950,925
2018    19,508,397
2019    19,646,083
2020    19,963,945
2021    19,810,742
2022    20,143,722
2023    19,145,630
2024    18,370,971 Projection

[oren]

Votes can already be seen now, after voting.
I picked the second option, based on very little reasoning.

[kiwichick16]

voted for 1st place   ......lowest on record

[Freegrass]

I voted second place. Coz last year was extraordinary in Antarctica.

[Ajpope85]

Votes can already be seen now, after voting.
I picked the second option, based on very little reasoning.

I can't see the votes. Anyway, I chose second place because I really hope we don't have back to back record breaking years.

[John_the_Younger]

Maybe moderators can see. All I can see is what I voted for - as I set it up for the drama of it all.

[oren]

Yeah, I guess it's the moderator thing.
Anyhow, if anyone wants to know the votes in advance, I'll PM you with bank details 

[Renerpho]

2nd place it is.

[John_the_Younger]

What I'd like to know, occasionally, is how may people (and bots?) voted.  Many of us are shy optimists, pessimists or realists.

[oren]

Total Members Voted: 24

[Renerpho]

and bots?

I feel a strong urge to deny that I'm a bot.

Does that mean I'm probably a bot? 

[John_the_Younger]

Thanks Oren. 
Renerpho: you are what you eat.  (My wife's doctor wants her to swallow a camera...)

Today's NSIDC graph, courtesy of Gerontocrat, suggests a first place finish might be approachable.  😢 [You know, hope for peace; prepare for war - in this case, vote for first place and hope for at least an honorable mention.]

[John_the_Younger]

Today's NSIDC graph, courtesy of Gerontocrat, suggests a first place finish is in our future.  But remember, last year around this time a record low Oct-Nov peak was projected, and it definitely didn't materialize - but this year's projection includes last years data... I guess crystal balls and hunches are our best guidance ⚗️

[Image from Global Sea Ice ... thread]

Oh yes, how many votes are registered, Oren?
Plenty of time to vote, folks, but why not vote now and change it later if freezing and melting doesn't follow your expectations?

[Freegrass]

I changed my vote just now from second to first place. The Antarctic is catching up quickly, and the Arctic isn't doing good either. So I'm going for the record here too.

[oren]

Total Members Voted: 30

[gerontocrat]

Global Sea Ice area - Projections.

The current record low maximum was in 2016 at 17.67 million km2.

We now have 3 projection methodologies.

The newest is from "be cause", that assumes the rate of sea ice gain to come continues at the sme rate as happened this year to date. This year gain to date has been 52% below average so the methodology produces produces a very low maximum.

The “Be Cause” Projection      Million Km2   Percent
Sea ice area Gain at 26-Jul-2024      1.77           64.8%
Pro-rata remaining sea ice area Gain   0.96           35.2%
Sea ice area at 26-Jul-2024      15.70   
Resulting sea ice area maximum16.66   

The simple methodology I use in the attached table (see 1st image) assumes that remaining sea ice gain will be at the average of the last 10 years, which produces a projected maximim of 17.68 million km2, just 10k km2 above the 2016 record low.  But there is a hidden assumption in the metholdology, which is that in all those 10 years the maximum occurs on the same date, i.e. the 4th November.

In reality in the last 10 years the maximum has occurred in the range 28th October to 11th November. The plume (see 2nd image) looks at daily sea ice change day by day, and produces a lower maximum of 17.52 million km2, 150k km2 below the 2016 record. When you look at individual years on the plume, you can see that the years 2020 and 2013 sea ice gains continued to a late date, which tends to push up the projected maximum. But in years 2016 and 2021 the msea ice area started to reduce early and pulled the projected maximum down.

Me? I am waiting as long as possible before making a vote

[be cause]

   lol ...I didn't see that coming ! Nor did I think of applying it in this case , but I see it's value here too , in that it frees the present from the past .
 So thanks very much gero , and may it prove a worthy  addition .
                                                                                                 
b.c.

 p.s. I would call mine 'the simple methodology'

[Renerpho]

The simple methodology I use

p.s. I would call mine 'the simple methodology'

Let's call it "b.c's simple methodology", vs. "gero's simple methodology".

P.S. (and to push this post above the spam threshold): I considered whether I should change my vote to 1st place. I decided against it, because I expect a quick recovery like we saw in 2023.

[gerontocrat]

Let's call it "b.c's simple methodology", vs. "gero's simple methodology".

P.S. (and to push this post above the spam threshold): I considered whether I should change my vote to 1st place. I decided against it, because I expect a quick recovery like we saw in 2023.

OK,  "b.c's simple methodology" it is.

ps: A recovery as in 2023 has been in my mind as well, but as a possibility

[Phil.]

My methodology, since we're dealing with the sum of two separate events would be to add the projection of each of them.

[Renerpho]

My methodology, since we're dealing with the sum of two separate events would be to add the projection of each of them.

That's reasonable in principle, but I believe gero is using different methodologies for his projections about Arctic and Antarctic sea ice (sometimes switching half-way through the season, which can be reasonable based on how the season is going), so this could become a mess...

Rather, gero is handling these like three separate numbers (Arctic, Antarctic, Global), and I think that's fair.

[John_the_Younger]

What is it? 112 days to vote!
Today's Gerontocrat projection:


Last year's record low global sea ice at this time led me to believe a record low Oct-Nov low was probable, and as you can see, my belief didn't match reality.  What I'm beginning to include in my personal projection is that when there is more ice 'already' at this date, there is less future gain possible.  (In the extreme, think of the in-the-Arctic potential ice gain after the 2012 record vs, say, 1980.)  This could be done systematically (i.e., with maths) but for a projection, I approximate (1) each year's actual change between now and the max and average that with (2) each year's would-be change between now and the average max of the past 3 years.  This year, that pushes the projection way higher than Gero's.

And with predicted cold over most of the Antarctic seas this next week, I've moved up my guess for how much global sea ice there will be in 3 months.

[John_the_Younger]

How did that typo get in there? It was "12", not "112". [Gosh, 100 days from now we could 'guess' pretty well, huh!]  Now there are about five (5) days to vote.  The latest Gero projection suggests a record is not likely, as is not the grand prize.  :'(

[John_the_Younger]

Two days to vote (thereabouts).  Ooow: Gerontocrat's projection is approaching the 2nd-place and 2nd-place with Honors boundary - what fun!

Any chance for an honorable mention?

[gerontocrat]

One day to vote

The arithmetical projection from the average last 10 years remaining sea ice area gains gives a maximum of 18.59 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record and a healthy 0.56 million km2 below the current 2nd lowest maximum in 2023, but a higher than the May 2023 false maximum of 18.48 million km2
(graph 1 attached)

Taking into account timing of the maxima in previous years gives a lower maximum of 18.43 million km2 (see images 2 & 3 attached), 2nd lowest again, but which is just below the May 2023 false max.

Due to very low sea ice gains earlier in the seasons the "b.c. methodology" gives a maxima of 17.94 million km2, well below the 2023 false Max in may.

The “b c methodology” Projection      Million Km2   Percent
Sea ice area Gain at 13-Aug-2024      2.39                   59.6%
Pro-rata remaining sea ice area Gain      1.62                   40.4%
Sea ice area at 13-Aug-2024             16.32   
Resulting sea ice area maximum             17.94   

BUT. On the one hand Antarctic sea ice area gains look like continuing at extremely high levels for the next few days (see image 4 to show why); while on the other hand some are projecting extremely high Arctic sea ice area losses.

I hope you are confused because so am I. 2nd lowest is a safe bet still. But with honours? 'tis in the lap of the gods, but I am going for it.

click gif to start, runs 7 times

[John_the_Younger]

Just less than 4 hours to vote.

I shoulda offered something valuable as an award. ... Lets see ...  How about all of the bitcoins in my current, at the time of this post, physical possession to the people (prove you're not a bot to my satisfaction) who vote in the winning bin?
[Disclosure: I have no bitcoins and never have had.]

[interstitial]

That is ok crypto currencies are essentially reverse carbon credits.

[John_the_Younger]

Finally, we plebeians can now see how all 39 voters spread themselves out (or didn't).
 

[now we wait....]

[John_the_Younger]

Waiting is almost over.  Can we have an updated graph, Gerontocrat?

Any guesses for the Oct-Nov peak date (Greenwich time) out there?
For fun's sake, I'll say Guy Fawkes Day (Nov 5).

[gerontocrat]

Waiting is almost over.  Can we have an updated graph, Gerontocrat?

Any guesses for the Oct-Nov peak date (Greenwich time) out there?
For fun's sake, I'll say Guy Fawkes Day (Nov 5).

The 10 year average date of the maximum is 4th November so the 5th (Guy Fawkes day, when the UK celebrates him being hung, drawn and quartered for trying to blow up the King and most of the UK nobility) is a real possibility.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.25 million km2, 0.59 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record.

It look like being a bit below the 2024 false maximum which was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

for more detail goto https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=2136.msg413138#msg413138

[KenB]

It look like being a bit below the 2024 false maximum

So, I guess we might have to come up with another way to describe these maxima, since the earlier one might not be 'false' at all. 

[John_the_Younger]

Gerontocrat,
You make the gunpowder plot anniversary date sound not fun at all.  I could have said "US election date" (Nov 5 this year), but I knew that won't be 'fun' for about half my country and the US time zones don't include Greenwich (although I did once know military-influenced youth that kept their watches set to "Zulu time"). [edit: and thanks for the graph!]

KenB,
If this Oct-Nov peak will exceed the 2016 Oct peak and will be less than 18.48 million km2 (the May 2024 peak), it'll get "with honors" credit on this thread. But I know what you mean. 

Maybe...
"May peak" and "Oct-Nov sub-peak" or "Oct-Nov super-peak" (depending)?
 

[RoxTheGeologist]

..
The 10 year average date of the maximum is 4th November so the 5th (Guy Fawkes day, when the UK celebrates him being hung, drawn and quartered for trying to blow up the King and most of the UK nobility) is a real possibility.
...

We also burn an effigy of Guy Fawkes, a Catholic. In a rather Ironic twist, prior to the conflagration, children use the likeness of Guy to raise money for gunpowder. "Penny for the Guy" is the macabre version of "Trick or Treat"

[binntho]

..
The 10 year average date of the maximum is 4th November so the 5th (Guy Fawkes day, when the UK celebrates him being hung, drawn and quartered for trying to blow up the King and most of the UK nobility) is a real possibility.
...

We also burn an effigy of Guy Fawkes, a Catholic. In a rather Ironic twist, prior to the conflagration, children use the likeness of Guy to raise money for gunpowder. "Penny for the Guy" is the macabre version of "Trick or Treat"

Macabre ... or perhaps more civilized? It all depends on your perspective. The Halloween tradition in America is apparently derived from the Aztec cult of the dead as the "decorations" clearly demonstrate. In Iceland we are more down to earth - here a big cat comes and eats you if you don't get any new clothes for Christmas.

[Richard Rathbone]

..
The 10 year average date of the maximum is 4th November so the 5th (Guy Fawkes day, when the UK celebrates him being hung, drawn and quartered for trying to blow up the King and most of the UK nobility) is a real possibility.
...

We also burn an effigy of Guy Fawkes, a Catholic. In a rather Ironic twist, prior to the conflagration, children use the likeness of Guy to raise money for gunpowder. "Penny for the Guy" is the macabre version of "Trick or Treat"

I haven't seen Guys in 60 years. Penny for the Guy was a thing when Churchill was alive. I went  collecting it, but I've never been asked for it, just trick or treated.

[binntho]

..
The 10 year average date of the maximum is 4th November so the 5th (Guy Fawkes day, when the UK celebrates him being hung, drawn and quartered for trying to blow up the King and most of the UK nobility) is a real possibility.
...

We also burn an effigy of Guy Fawkes, a Catholic. In a rather Ironic twist, prior to the conflagration, children use the likeness of Guy to raise money for gunpowder. "Penny for the Guy" is the macabre version of "Trick or Treat"

I haven't seen Guys in 60 years. Penny for the Guy was a thing when Churchill was alive. I went  collecting it, but I've never been asked for it, just trick or treated.

I remember this from Southampton 25 years ago.

[gerontocrat]

Sorry all, no record low global sea ice area maximum this year. The recent very high Arctic sea ice area increases finally killed it.

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  17,751,996 KM2 as at 28-Oct-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.27 million km2, 0.60 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 0.88 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2

[kiwichick16]

on that tangential note ; Guy Fawkes Day , ...."remember, remember the 5th of November...." is still a thing in NZ  , but the sale of Fireworks is now  quite restricted .

More people tend to go to public Fireworks displays

In Australia the Fire Fighters often have to deal with fires set off by fireworks , especially in dry years

[John_the_Younger]

Well, global sea ice didn't peak on the 5th of November.  Will it ever peak?  The U.S. election, which put a chill on the American Democratic Party, obviously didn't put a chill on the Arctic.

[Renerpho]

The U.S. election, which put a chill on the American Democratic Party, obviously didn't put a chill on the Arctic.

Imagine if the climate was determined by hot debates and chilling news.

[John_the_Younger]

But isn't it?
 :'(

[Renerpho]

Curious. The two years in the record with such a late maximum are 2023 and 2024. 2nd place is not safe!

[oren]

With lower numbers inevitably comes the potential for higher gains, for physical and geographical reasons.
Lower Arctic ice has more room to grow because of more open water at higher latitudes that normally freeze at this time, and lower Antarctic ice may find it more difficult to melt out due to it being in higher latitudes than typical.

[John_the_Younger]

13 Nov 24 looks like a good date to peak at.  And right on one of those lines!

Although it looks like 2018 peaked even later...  :'(

[oren]

So which category of the poll won? Hard to tell

[Renerpho]

So which category of the poll won? Hard to tell

25 May: 18.48
14 Nov: 18.54

That's "2nd place: Oct-Nov peak less than 2023 Nov peak", I think? That's what I guessed, so I want to believe it won. 

[John_the_Younger]

I demand a recount.
 :'(     

P.S. Congratulations to the 2nd Place (no honors) voters - there are eleven of you.