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What will JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP) 2020 ASIE September daily minimum be?

Above 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
3 (5.3%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
4 (7%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
12 (21.1%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
13 (22.8%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
11 (19.3%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
6 (10.5%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
5 (8.8%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
1 (1.8%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
1 (1.8%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
1 (1.8%)

Total Members Voted: 57

Voting closes: August 11, 2020, 04:00:02 AM

Author Topic: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll  (Read 705 times)

Juan C. García

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JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« on: July 31, 2020, 04:00:02 AM »
The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in September 2020, as measured by ADS-NIPR-VISHOP (JAXA).

September mínimums have been:

 Year               Extent
                  10^6 km2
1980's Avg.     7.19
1990's Avg.     6.49
2000's Avg.     5.41
2010's Avg.     4.33
2000               6.04
2001               6.55
2002               5.51
2003               5.93
2004               5.68
2005               5.18
2006               5.63
2007               4.07
2008               4.50
2009               5.05
2010               4.62
2011               4.27
2012               3.18
2013               4.81
2014               4.88
2015               4.26
2016               4.02
2017               4.47
2018               4.46
2019               3.96

Order by lowest to highest:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2020, 06:27:02 AM »
I'm starting this poll with the 3.25-3.75M km2 range. Looking at Gerontocrat's posts, his latest projection is on 3.54M km2, so I feel confortable here.
I will wait 8 or 9 days to give my final bet.

I include the ADS JAXA graph that shows the years until September. What will happen?  8)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2020, 07:12:54 AM »
Dropped to 3.25-3.75, with downside risk higher than upside.

pauldry600

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Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2020, 01:01:57 PM »
I put in 3.5 to 4m as I think it will finish at 3.9m

I could also have put in 3.75 to 4.25 but it will probably be lower
than 3.9m and not over 4

Paul

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Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2020, 01:42:50 PM »
Between 3.50 and 4.00 but final figure I reckon could be around 3.7 given the lack of Siberian ice and more Beauffort/Chukchi ice will melt between now and September.

icefisher

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Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2020, 09:19:20 PM »
dispersion late in august with ice ranging from 40-80 cm.  4.018 for minimum on Sept. 8.  will there be a min. volume poll?

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2020, 09:21:51 PM »
dispersion late in august with ice ranging from 40-80 cm.  4.018 for minimum on Sept. 8.  will there be a min. volume poll?
It is a volume poll with PIOMAS data:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3230.0.html
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

JNap

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Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2020, 10:27:12 PM »
I predict 3.0 - 3.5.   I think that we will end up close to 2012 levels.   This is a move down of two bins from the July poll.  The degree and duration of the GAAC will have material impact on the final September minimum extent this year.

Given the accumulated heat content in the arctic, I agree with Oren's view above that there is a greater likelihood that extent could drop below 3.0 then there is of it ending up above 3.5.
Science matters.

glennbuck

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Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2020, 02:39:13 PM »
2.50-3.00M km2 range. Lower if a Cyclone hits in August.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 06:25:37 PM by glennbuck »

D-Penguin

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Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2020, 03:07:15 PM »
A 'guess'...between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2...but it all depends on the weather (how often has this caveat been used?). So, the 'critical' question is 'how' is the weather being created?
Remember...it's all about the Jet Stream you dummy...just a personal reminder!

Stephan

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Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2020, 10:39:00 PM »
I repeated my guesses from July and June. Thinking it'll be a solid second place, but more than 3.75 M km².
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

RikW

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Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2020, 10:57:36 PM »
I can’t imagine it ending above 4M, but as said by others, weather will have a big influence