Dropping down half a bin as the high stayed high & the sun kept shining, & then the wind blew in the Beaufort.
August poll for JAXA: 3.25-3.75M km2 VHC (Very high confidence).
Extent depends a lot on the weather in the past couple of weeks of the melt season, so my "very high confidence" is a bit dubious.
The recent slow-down in extent drop is basically irrelevant, if not negatively correlated with the final extent, as was due to the low pressure system in the Beaufort spreading the ice out. At the same time, it basically wrecked it though.