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What will NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average be?

Above 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
5 (9.1%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
10 (18.2%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
17 (30.9%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
9 (16.4%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
8 (14.5%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
3 (5.5%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
1 (1.8%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
1 (1.8%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
1 (1.8%)

Total Members Voted: 55

Voting closes: August 11, 2020, 04:06:40 AM

Author Topic: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: August poll  (Read 552 times)

Juan C. García

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NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« on: July 31, 2020, 04:06:40 AM »
ATTENTION: There are two ASI extent polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum [provided by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP)].
Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages on 2000-2019 (in millions km2):

   Year          Extent
                10^6 km2
1980's Avg.   7.21
1990's Avg.   6.66
2000's Avg.   5.65
2010's Avg.   4.68
2000             6.25
2001             6.73
2002             5.83
2003             6.12
2004             5.98
2005             5.50
2006             5.86
2007             4.27
2008             4.69
2009             5.26
2010             4.87
2011             4.56
2012             3.57
2013             5.21
2014             5.22
2015             4.62
2016             4.53
2017             4.82
2018             4.71
2019             4.32

From lowest to highest:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2020, 06:29:51 AM »
For today, my bet is between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2020, 07:17:30 AM »
Dropped one bin to 3.50-4.00. This is the hardest achieve of all my predictions, upside risk much higher than downside risk.

icefisher

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2020, 09:49:39 PM »
+1 Juan.  My range is 4.22+/- .18.  Probably 2nd but 3rd also possible.

Stephan

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2020, 10:40:03 PM »
I repeated my guesses from June and July with the bin centered at 4.25 M km².
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2020, 08:26:41 PM »
Some data to help confuse the issue.

Despite the last 7 days extent losses being way below average, the July 2020 Monthly Average Extent is a record low 7.50 million km2, some 304k less than July 2019, which itself was a record low.

7.500 million km2 is 437k less than the value from the linear trend, which is a reduction of 70k per annum. i.e. July 2020 is more than 6 years less than that linear trend.

IF remaining extent losses to minimum turn ou to be at the average of the last 10 years remaining melt, the September Monthly Average would be 3.96 million km2, 412k above the record low of 3.55 million km2 in 2012, but 317k less than the 2007 (2nd lowest) value.

3.96 million km2 is 412k less than the value from the linear trend, which is a reduction of 83k per annum. i.e. July 2020 is about years less than the value from the linear trend.

i.e. Average extent loss from now puts the September monthly average pretty much slap in the mid-point of 2012 (lowest) and 2007 (2nd lowest).

Like all projections / predictions / forecasts there is only one certainty. It won't happen that way, and even that is uncertain.

I'm waiting for PIOMAS volume, a few days more data and Mystic Meg before I cast my vote.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2020, 10:53:24 PM »
For today, my bet is between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2.

IF remaining extent losses to minimum turn ou to be at the average of the last 10 years remaining melt, the September Monthly Average would be 3.96 million km2, 412k above the record low of 3.55 million km2 in 2012, but 317k less than the 2007 (2nd lowest) value.

Like all projections / predictions / forecasts there is only one certainty. It won't happen that way, and even that is uncertain.

I'm waiting for PIOMAS volume, a few days more data and Mystic Meg before I cast my vote.

So, my prediction is in corcondancia with your numbers, for now.
I am also waiting for PIOMAS and also, to see how much extent/area ASI melting we will have in the following 7 days.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.