Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

What will PIOMAS 2020 Arctic sea ice volume Sept. average be?

Above 9.00 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 8.00 and 9.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 7.00 and 8.25 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 6.25 and 7.25 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 5.75 and 6.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 5.50 and 6.00 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 5.25 and 5.75 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 5.00 and 5.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 10^3 km^3
3 (4.8%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 10^3 km^3
6 (9.5%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 10^3 km^3
15 (23.8%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 10^3 km^3
25 (39.7%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 10^3 km^3
9 (14.3%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 10^3 km^3
5 (7.9%)
Under 3.00 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: August 11, 2020, 04:18:39 AM

Author Topic: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll  (Read 2163 times)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2025
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 966
  • Likes Given: 691
Until 2004, all years were above 10,000 km3. The years 2005 and 2006 were on the 9,000-10,000 km3 range. And from 2007 to 2019, the volume has been at 7,250 km3 or under. The worst year [2012] was 3,787 km3.

Values from the PIOMAS Monthly Ice Volume Data:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Year    Sept. Avg.
          (103 km3)
2000      11.08
2001      12.28
2002      10.85
2003      10.28
2004      10.04
2005        9.28
2006        9.11
2007        6.53
2008        7.25
2009        6.93
2010        4.74
2011        4.48
2012        3.79
2013        5.48
2014        6.97
2015        5.85
2016        4.53
2017        4.68
2018        5.08
2019        4.19

From lowest to highest:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2025
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 966
  • Likes Given: 691
Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2020, 06:34:44 AM »
in volume, I think that 2020 will end between 2012 and 2019, even that I expect that in the end of July, the year 2020 could be the lowest on record. Will it happen? We will know in 5-7 days.

For now, 3.75-4.25K km3 range.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6183
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2244
  • Likes Given: 1880
Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2020, 07:15:56 AM »
Dropped another bin to 3.50-4.00. I expect a new record volume, this is just for safety's sake.

icefisher

  • New ice
  • Posts: 50
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll
« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2020, 09:44:20 PM »
My guess assumes a quiet august.  If we get a storm with pressure less than 965 and 2 meter or greater wave height, volume will approach a new low.  An Atlantic hurricane generating a wave fetch of 400km would do great damage to the fractured and unsecured CAB.   

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1334
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 468
  • Likes Given: 231
Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2020, 10:42:41 PM »
I think 2020 can make it on top #3 position. Therefore I went for the 4.5 ± 0.25 k km³ bin as I did in July poll. I was a little surprised to find my vote in the very upper edge of votes submitted so far.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Pmt111500

  • Guest
Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll
« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2020, 11:39:39 AM »
Too low to care about anymore?

RikW

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 222
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll
« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2020, 12:31:42 PM »
I think it will be below 2019; 2019 has a small lead, but 'forgot' to keep on melting in september and high refreeze in september according to PIOMAS, which increased their average;

I can't see that happening this year, so much heat added into the arctic this year.

On the other hand, I don't know what to expect of the rest of the melting season. The numbers don't allign with my expectation, so I'm going for 3.75 - 4.25; Though I probably change to 1 or 2 bins lower if melting numbers allign with my expectation.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2025
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 966
  • Likes Given: 691
Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll
« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2020, 05:50:30 AM »
Just 2 more days to vote or change your vote.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 669
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 57
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll
« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2020, 07:10:10 PM »
Bumped my vote up half a bin to 4.0 - 4 5

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1334
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 468
  • Likes Given: 231
Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll
« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2020, 09:08:52 PM »
I already voted in June and haven't changed any of the bins since then...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2025
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 966
  • Likes Given: 691
Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll
« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2020, 05:57:55 AM »
I am staying in the range 3.75-4.25 K km3.
There is only one day left to vote or change your vote.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 496
Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll
« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2020, 02:53:18 PM »
Dropping down half a bin as the high stayed high & the sun kept shining, & then the wind blew in the Beaufort.

August poll for PIOMAS: 3.50-4.00K km3 VHC (Very high confidence).

That's the bin that centres the 2012 record. This season has been exceptional as well so far so I think it's going to be down there with 2012.

All that sunlight on the ice in July will take its toll. That's direct energy for melting. In my amateur understanding, most will have been absorbed by the ice & some of the high frequency (violet) end will have gone straight through and heated up the water underneath.

Now we're getting to the time of year where there is heat in the water below the ice & how much is transferred to the ice will depend on how much the ice is stirred. So if the next month is windy over the ice then -- in my amateur view -- that would be big factor in pushing towards a record low minimum volume.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1547
  • None but our self can free our minds
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 488
  • Likes Given: 731
Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: August poll
« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2020, 03:04:48 PM »
3.00 and 3.50 10^3 km^3
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.-The Dalai Lama

The ignored righteous conscience of the world...
Did you know Jesus was a Buddhist?
Where do you think the three wise men came from?
From the east...
From India...