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Paddy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #950 on: October 14, 2020, 10:48:50 PM »
A further analysis of the impact on life expectancy:

https://iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/news/200917_-_Covid-19_and_life_expectancy_.html

This is rather more in depth than the back of an imaginary envelope calculation that I posted further up in the thread, but what it adds up to is that the extent of COVID's impact on life expectancy obviously depends on how many people catch it, but it could be as much as 7 to 9 years in Western Europe and North America if 50% of people catch it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #951 on: October 15, 2020, 12:59:29 PM »
After two lost decades, U.S.'s weakest local economies may face worse from pandemic
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-distress/after-two-lost-decades-u-s-s-weakest-local-economies-may-face-worse-from-pandemic-idUSKBN26Z15X
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From 2000 through February 2020, the United States went through two recessions, one of them deep, but also had its longest measured period of uninterrupted growth.

It did little to change the economic landscape, with roughly two-thirds of zip codes remaining in the same category in which they started. With a third recession sparked by the pandemic now underway, the divide may grow deeper.

“All of the gains have gone to higher tiers,” said EIG research director Kenan Fikri. “We have a chronic tail of distressed communities.”
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #952 on: October 16, 2020, 11:49:50 AM »
Can someone tell me if the 2020 unemployment rate is measured the same as the 1930 unemployment rate? Are these comparisons valid, when they say it was, say 25% then and 8% now? If not, when was the system changed?
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kassy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #953 on: October 16, 2020, 01:43:02 PM »
Well i don´t really know how they counted unemployment in the 1930s but assuming they simply counted it the numbers are not the same.

For unemployment they exclude some groups nowadays like people not actively looking for a job.
Not sure if they count people wanting to work more hours if they have some job.

Search for us official unemployment vs real unemployment if you are interested in details.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #954 on: October 16, 2020, 03:15:13 PM »
Can someone tell me if the 2020 unemployment rate is measured the same as the 1930 unemployment rate? Are these comparisons valid, when they say it was, say 25% then and 8% now? If not, when was the system changed?

Unemployment rates are not a valid measure...ever. In the U.S., it is better to look at employment participation rates, the percentage of persons of employment age who are working.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate

Even this measure can be deceiving as it does not differentiate between someone working a full time job with a decent salary from someone working two part time minimum wage jobs. It is best then to also look at earnings numbers.

If you look at the participation rate chart, you can see the long term slump that has occurred over the last couple of decades. Trust me. The labor force participation rate is not declining because people are choosing not to work. Add to this the drop in hourly wages and you begin to understand how devastating this economy has been for ordinary Americans.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2020, 03:21:42 PM by Shared Humanity »

The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #955 on: October 16, 2020, 03:16:26 PM »
Can someone tell me if the 2020 unemployment rate is measured the same as the 1930 unemployment rate? Are these comparisons valid, when they say it was, say 25% then and 8% now? If not, when was the system changed?

The short answer is no.  However, many economists have tried to correlate the unemployment during the great depression to current measures.  The 25% figures are those correlations.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-04/this-is-bad-but-it-s-not-looking-like-the-depression-quicktake

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #956 on: October 16, 2020, 04:09:30 PM »
Recession 2020: What will happen to the cost of living?
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/how-will-recession-affect-cost-of-living-201137039.html
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While newly-implemented income tax measures in this year’s Budget will go some way to assist with cost-of-living pressures, believe it or not, we could actually expect the cost of living in Australia to go up.

Why?

Call it the ’coronavirus tax’.

Aussies hoarding necessities such as toilet paper, dry food and hand sanitiser has driven Australia’s inflation on some products to record highs.

Economist: 2021 recession likely, presidential election will determine rate of economic growth
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2020/10/15/recession-likely-ahead-in-2021.html
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The national economy is slowing down and could enter into a recession next year due to the "disorienting, distracting and dizzying" events of 2020, the chief global economist for the The Economic Outlook Group said on Thursday.

Even if there is an effective vaccine for Covid-19 by the middle of 2021, if the United States does not pass another large stimulus bill, the probability of a recession in 2021 is 50%, Bernard Baumohl said during his keynote address, which was given virtually at the Phoenix Business Journal’s 2021 Economic Forecast, sponsored by the Salt River Project.

A recession is almost certain — 90% likely — if there is no effective vaccine until late 2021 or early 2022 and there is no comprehensive stimulus bill, he said.

GLOBAL ECONOMY STILL IN RECESSION; THIS YEAR’S CONTRACTION LESS THAN ANTICIPATED, BUT RISKS REMAIN
https://www2.staffingindustry.com/site/Editorial/Daily-News/Global-economy-still-in-recession-this-year-s-contraction-less-than-anticipated-but-risks-remain-55449
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The International Monetary Fund now projects the global economy to shrink 4.4% this year, according to its World Economic Outlook report. The globe remains in a recession, but the projected decline in economic growth is less severe than an earlier projection in June.

Worst recession since Great Depression, says World Bank
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/business/worst-recession-since-great-depression-says-world-bank-156574
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The world is experiencing one of the deepest recessions since the Great Depression in the 1930s owing to the novel coronavirus, World Bank President David Malpass has said, terming the Covid pandemic a “catastrophic event” for many developing and the poorest countries. He said given the extent of the economic contraction, there was a rising risk of disruptive debt crises in countries.

The government must wake up to the fact the Covid recession has hurt Australian women more
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2020/oct/13/the-government-must-wake-up-to-the-fact-the-covid-recession-has-hurt-australian-women-more
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Trumpeting infrastructure is all well and good, but it is a strategy suited to defeating the 1990s recession, not the one we face now

Faces of the Coronavirus Recession: How the downturn is affecting lives and votes in Ohio (this hits home for me)
https://www.cincinnati.com/in-depth/news/2020/10/14/coronavirus-recession-impact-greater-cincinnati-ohio-economy/3461330001/
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WHO: Basak Durgun, 36, Walnut Hills
JOB: Former visiting professor at Miami University 
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? She lost her job in April.

WHO: Brad Horn, 35, Whitewater Township
JOB: Former machine operator at manufacturer GE Aviation
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? He was furloughed, then laid off in April.

WHO: Lauren Anderson, 61, Hyde Park
JOB: Owner of marketing and branding firm The Creative Department
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? She was forced to lay off two employees and one contractor.

WHO: Robert Richardson, 38, West Price Hill
JOB: Security supervisor for a logistics company 
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? Despite a recent promotion, he’s struggling to get enough hours.

WHO: Jose Salazar, 46, Columbia Tusculum
JOB: Chef and owner of three restaurants: Salazar’s, Mita’s and Goose & Elder 
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? The pandemic forced him to temporarily shut down two of his three restaurants and lay off most of his staff. His sales still haven’t recovered.

WHO: Jackie Davis, 34, Cheviot
JOB: Nurses aide in a nursing home 
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? Her hours are beginning to shrink as jobs in her field get cut.

WHO: AJ Penley, 24, Mount Washington
JOB: Previously a personal trainer and now working at Kroger
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? He lost fitness clients, then his job in March. Later, he took a supermarket job.

WHO: Ken Batchelor, 65, Lawrenceburg
JOB: Meat cutter at Kroger (recently retired) 
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? He was making extra money until COVID-19 hospitalized him and left him with medical bills.

WHO: Ben Shipp, 26, Dry Ridge, Kentucky
JOB: Former intern for guest services at Disney World’s Animal Kingdom
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? He was laid off in March.

WHO: Jayme Johns, 23, moving back to Charlotte, North Carolina
JOB: Flight attendant for PSA Airlines, an American Airlines regional carrier   
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? Schedule cutbacks kept her from securing a regular service route and she expects to lose her job.

WHO: Martin Pittman, 52, Pleasant Ridge
JOB: General manager at The Summit hotel, Madisonville
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? The pandemic closed his hotel, forced layoffs and has left bookings at a fraction of normal.

WHO: Kim Delaney, 41, Independence
JOB: Auto rental worker at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? Laid off in spring, she was recalled in September with a less flexible schedule.

COVID-19 Induces Deep Global Recession for 2020, Says IMF
https://www.voanews.com/economy-business/covid-19-induces-deep-global-recession-2020-says-imf
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The International Monetary Fund is projecting a deep global recession in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, with global economies expected to shrink by 4.4%. 

Speaking Tuesday at the IMF's World Economic Outlook Forum in Boston, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said the pandemic shut down business and industry throughout the world. 

While most economies reopened, prompting the IMF to improve its current forecast to somewhat over its June prediction, Gopinath said resurgences of the virus and other political uncertainties suggest the global economic recovery will be slow and uneven well into 2021.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #957 on: October 18, 2020, 08:53:23 PM »
U.S.
Federal budget deficit hits $3.1 trillion, more than double the previous record
It is the government's largest annual shortfall, surpassing the previous record of $1.4 trillion set in 2009 after the financial crisis.
The Associated Press
Oct. 16, 2020
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The federal budget deficit hit an all-time high of $3.1 trillion in the 2020 budget year, more than double the previous record, as the coronavirus pandemic shrank revenues and sent spending soaring.

The Trump administration reported Friday that the deficit for the budget year that ended on Sept. 30 was three times the size of last year's deficit of $984 billion. It was also $2 trillion higher than the administration had estimated in February, before the pandemic hit.

It was the government's largest annual shortfall in dollar terms, surpassing the previous record of $1.4 trillion set in 2009. At that time, the Obama administration was spending heavily to shore up the nation's banking system and limit the economic damage from the 2008 financial crisis.

The 2020 deficit, in terms of its relationship to the economy, represented 15.2 percent of total gross domestic product, the sum of all the goods and services produced by the country. That was the highest level since 1945, when the U.S. was borrowing heavily to finance World War II. ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/federal-budget-deficit-hits-3-1-trillion-more-double-previous-n1243765
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #958 on: October 19, 2020, 02:16:33 AM »
Sigmetnow:
Here is a forecast for 2024. Keep in mind that such forecasts tend to be overly conservative:
https://www.usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html

National debt ~48 trillion, debt to GDP ratio 181.86%, Budget deficit over 5 1/2 Trillion.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #959 on: October 20, 2020, 01:00:45 PM »
The Real Recession Is Just Starting
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/10/18/the-real-recession-is-just-starting/#451461387006
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Conclusions

Don’t be fooled by the retail sales data or the talk of the return of inflation;
Don’t hold your breath for or hold out cash in anticipation of rising interest rates;
The economy is in Recession; we just haven’t felt it because of the CARES Act stimulus, but, eventually we will because we have a huge, huge unemployment problem;
And then there is the oncoming eviction crisis (on hold until year’s end); there hasn’t been much discussion about this, and I wonder if it is priced into financial markets;
The CARES Act stimulus has covered up the Recession, and another stimulus, post-election, may further kick the can down the road, but free cash cannot go on forever without dire consequences;
·The Recession will persist as long as the virus persists (and we seem to be entering into a second, resurgent phase). A vaccine would help, but getting enough people to take it (providing herd immunity) and then returning to pre-virus behavior may take years, not quarters.

Recession 2020: Everything you need to know
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-2020-everything-you-need-to-know-204323390.html
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Will the coronavirus recession be worse than 2008?
Yes.

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) director-general Robert Azevedo said in March this year that projections show the economic downturn and job losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic will be worse than the 2008 recession.

“This pandemic will inevitably have an enormous impact on the economy,” Azevedo said.

“Recent projections predict an economic downturn and job losses that are worse than the global financial crisis a dozen years ago.”

For Australia, the coronavirus recession will certainly be worse than in 2008 given our economy all but escaped any extreme effects felt by the 2008 global financial crisis with most impact felt overseas.

What will the coronavirus recession look like?

Businesses will continue to fold as they are unable to withstand the financial ruin facing them as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

And we’ll continue to see jobs lost.

Paying rent, phone, internet, utility bills and even a mortgage will become more of a struggle and so bills will go unpaid.

With less income, household spending will drop further.

And then the vicious cycle continues: consumers who are less willing to spend means more and more businesses will struggle, and it goes on.

And of course, the property market suddenly finds fewer buyers, meaning house values drop.

Global stock markets have also been volatile for the last few weeks, and investors saw several days where hundreds of billions of dollars were wiped off every time – and we don’t seem to have reached the bottom yet.

While Australia’s economy wasn’t in the strongest standing to begin with, the reason behind most business closures are circumstantial and specific to the virus.

The Morrison government has so far announced two stimulus packages totalling $83.6 billion, to cushion the economic blow on individuals and businesses impacted by the stringent restrictions implemented to curb further spread of the virus and aid our economic recovery.

The government will spend a combined $22.9 billion on income safety nets of $550 per fortnight for those who have lost their jobs, sole traders and casuals and a $750 one-off supplement for those on certain welfare, pension and concession payments.

Australia’s banks have also thrown a $100 billion lifeline, which will pause mortgage repayments until next year for Aussies who have fallen into financial hardship as a result of Covid-19.

Australia’s economic recovery is now largely in the government’s hands, and it will be “critically important” that the government minimises the economic fallout, economist Stephen Koukoulas said.

“It does this by pumping money into the economy, making it easy to get social security payments so people can survive. It is why policies are needed to see the economy as strong as possible to reduce the human costs of high unemployment.”

It’s just a matter of waiting for the virus to come and go.


There’s no hiding Brexit impact in coronavirus recession
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-coronavirus-uk-recession-economy-there-is-no-hiding/
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LONDON — There are now 72 days until the U.K. leaves the transition period with the EU. Regardless of whether a deal is reached or not, this will mean a sharp change in trading terms between the two sides — and in the midst of a resurgent global pandemic.

Few people have considered how the two will interplay and what that will mean for businesses on the ground trying to deal with both.

IMF: Nearly all Mideast economies hit by recession
https://www.lewistownsentinel.com/news/business/2020/10/imf-nearly-all-mideast-economies-hit-by-recession/
Quote
The coronavirus pandemic has pushed nearly all Mideast nations into the throes of an economic recession this year, yet some rebound is expected as all but two — Lebanon and Oman — are anticipated to see some level of economic growth next year, according to a report published Monday by the International Monetary Fund.


This comes as the IMF estimates that the global economy will shrink 4.4% this year, marking the worst annual plunge since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #960 on: October 20, 2020, 02:46:11 PM »
Sigmetnow:
Here is a forecast for 2024. Keep in mind that such forecasts tend to be overly conservative:
https://www.usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html

National debt ~48 trillion, debt to GDP ratio 181.86%, Budget deficit over 5 1/2 Trillion.

Here is another conservative forecast which places the budget deficit in 2024 at slightly over 1 1/2 trillion. 

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #961 on: October 22, 2020, 01:38:58 PM »
How the coronavirus is exacerbating global inequality, hunger
https://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2020/How-the-coronavirus-is-exacerbating-global-inequality-hunger.htm
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Whereas previous recessions were fairly even in terms of who was affected, in this recession, the top 25% has bounced back completely, while the bottom 2% has been smacked hard. The reason is simple: working from home. Bankers, lawyers, accountants, academics, and scores of other white collar workers, have been able to work remotely. The work environment may have changed, but they got to keep their jobs. Those employed in restaurants, hotels, shopping malls, etc. haven’t been so lucky. Their jobs have disappeared, and won’t be coming back anytime soon, especially now that we’re in the second wave.

That is what makes this pandemic so tragic – many have been badly affected, but depending on where you sit on the social spectrum, you may not have noticed. Zakaria makes a great point: “Has the relative normalcy of life for the elites prevented us from understanding the true severity of the problem? For tens of millions in America, and for hundreds of millions around the world, this is the Great Depression.”
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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #962 on: October 22, 2020, 03:15:39 PM »
It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours." - Harry Truman.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #963 on: October 23, 2020, 12:44:29 PM »
Over half Europe's small firms fear for survival, survey finds
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-economy-smallbusiness-idUKKBN27709T
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LONDON (Reuters) - Over half the small and medium-sized companies which together provide jobs for two-thirds of European workers fear for their survival in the coming 12 months, according to a survey released by management consultancy McKinsey on Thursday.

The real cause of the coronavirus recession
https://www.marketplace.org/shows/make-me-smart-with-kai-and-molly/the-real-cause-of-the-coronavirus-recession/
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Iowa has never had a statewide mask mandate, and it lifted its few restrictions earlier than a lot of other states. But economic recovery has been slow, suggesting that this downturn is due more to individual choices than the lockdowns put in place by blue states, as some Republicans have suggested. Today, we’ll talk about a case study around Iowa in The New York Times. Plus: Elon Musk, infosec and Kiss.

RELEASE: CAP Brief Finds This Is the First Recession Where Women Have Lost More Jobs Than Men
https://www.americanprogress.org/press/release/2020/10/22/492164/release-cap-brief-finds-first-recession-women-lost-jobs-men/
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Washington, D.C. — A new issue brief from the Center for American Progress finds that the coronavirus recession is the first recession since the advent of modern U.S. employment statistics for women in which women have lost more jobs than men, leading some to refer to this recession as a “she-cession.” While in every previous recession on record, women lost less than one job for every job that men lost, between February and April, women lost more than 12.1 million jobs while men lost just more than 10 million. There is also evidence that many of these job losses will be long-lasting. The last time women’s employment-to-population ratio was this low was in 1986. Following that low, it took nearly a decade for women’s employment rates to reach pre-recession levels.

Women of color have lost their jobs at higher rates than their white counterparts. Black women’s employment fell 18.2 percent from its peak compared with 16.7 percent for white women. Asian American women have gone from having the lowest unemployment rate in February at 3 percent—tied with white women—to 15.9 percent at peak unemployment. Latina women have also experienced dramatic employment and labor force declines, with job losses out of phase with the rest of the recovery.

The Recession Is Over, But Don't Get Too Excited
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4380902-recession-is-over-dont-get-too-excited
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With record economic growth and hiring this summer, we may soon learn that the recession is already technically over.

But the end of the recession doesn’t mean the economy has recovered, only that the worst is behind us in terms of lost economic output, income, and jobs.

Expect the recovery in GDP to take another year, while regaining the lost jobs to take closer to two years. Getting back to the former trajectory will take longer still.

Investors should be mindful that the path forward will be slow and uneven, even after the recession is declared to be over.


COVID-19 crisis to speed up depletion of Social Security
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/10/22/covid-19-crisis-to-speed-up-depletion-of-social-security-funds
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US retirement and disability trust funds could run dry as early as 2029 and 2023, respectively, a bipartisan research group warns.
I'm on disability :o
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #964 on: October 24, 2020, 06:29:46 PM »
Asia suffering 'worst recession in living memory'
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54626025
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Growth forecasts for the region have been downgraded again, this time from -1.6% to -2.2% for this year.

However, the glimmer of hope is for a bounceback of almost 7% next year, according to the IMF.

China will play a big part in the region's growth next year, with its latest data showing continued recovery from the downturn caused by the virus.

But there are still many black clouds on the horizon as countries, including India, the Philippines and Malaysia, continue to battle with Covid-19 infections.

ECB Seen Preparing More Aid as Virus Spread Derails Economy
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-seen-preparing-more-aid-040010902.html
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Surging coronavirus infections and renewed lockdowns will prompt the European Central Bank to step up monetary stimulus later this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Respondents predict 500 billion euros ($590 billion) will be added to the 1.35 trillion-euro pandemic bond-buying program, with most anticipating action in December. The Governing Council will probably keep policy unchanged when it meets on Thursday to discuss the economic damage, though some analysts expect President Christine Lagarde to signal that more support is on the way.

With governments forced to restrict travel, close restaurants and impose curfews to contain the pandemic, the euro area’s recovery is already flagging, raising the specter of a double-dip recession. Lagarde has said the pickup in infections came sooner than expected, presenting a clear risk to the economic outlook.

Double Dip Recession Tweets of the Day
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/double-dip-recession-tweets-of-the-day
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The Covid recession isn't even over yet, but there is already talk of a double dip coming.
Numerous tweets.

Long-term unemployment spikes for millions of Americans. Aid that’s kept them afloat may end soon
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/23/long-term-unemployment-is-increasing-as-relief-is-running-out.html
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It’s been more than seven months since the coronavirus pandemic hit, leading to sweeping shelter in place orders in March that put millions of Americans out of work. While some of those laid off due to shutdowns have been able to return to their jobs, permanent unemployment has increased.

In September, long-term unemployment, or those that have been out of work for 27 weeks or more, jumped to 2.4 million, the highest thus far in the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nearly 800,000 out of work Americans moved into the long-term unemployed category from August to September, the largest month-over-month increase ever, according to Michele Evermore, senior policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project.

At the same time, the number of Americans out of work for 15 weeks to 26 weeks was nearly 5 million in September.


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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #965 on: October 26, 2020, 02:47:07 PM »
Next Up: Global Depression
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/10/next-up-global-depression.html
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1. History offers a basic template for viral pandemics in which the initial wave dies back in summer and then re-ignites in a second larger Wave 2 in autumn and winter.

2. Humanity's default responses to novel crises: denial, fantasy, magical thinking and manipulating data to support a simplistic, emotionally satisfying ideological position.

Doug Casey on Why the 2020s Will Likely Be the Most Turbulent Decade in 250 Years
https://internationalman.com/articles/doug-casey-on-why-the-2020s-will-likely-be-the-most-turbulent-decade/
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So what’s going to happen?

People appear to want leaders—to be told what to do. They’ve been programmed to be irresponsible and to believe that somebody else—the State—is going to take care of them.

The average citizen of every country has become much less responsible as the State has grown much, much larger over the last century.

With that being the case, when there are problems, people are going to look for a strong leader—and they’re going to get strong leaders. It’s true all over the world. We already see this with Narendra Modi in India, Vladimir Putin in Russia, Xi Jinping in China, Erdogan in Turkey, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Fernandez in Argentina, and more.

Countries everywhere are going towards so-called strong leadership. It’s shaping up like the ’30s with Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin, Roosevelt, and the rest of them.

As the situation gets completely out of control, people are going to look for dictatorial leaders to provide direction and safety. This decade is probably going to be the most dangerous since the Industrial Revolution overturned the basis of society over 200 years ago.

No end in sight for record-high public debt fueled by COVID-19
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/No-end-in-sight-for-record-high-public-debt-fueled-by-COVID-19
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TOKYO -- Countries around the world have expanded fiscal expenditure due to the coronavirus pandemic, causing public debt to balloon to unprecedented levels. The debt-to-gross domestic product ratio of advanced economies in 2021 will reach a record high of 125%.

Recession risk grows as Covid-19 cases continue to surge
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/23/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
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London (CNN Business)The world's top economies took huge steps in recent months to recover from the worst recession in a generation. Now, with coronavirus cases surging again, that progress could be reversed.

Pandemic recession: Economy rebounds slightly, unemployment still high
https://krcrtv.com/news/local/pandemic-recession-economy-rebounds-slightly-unemployment-still-high
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Economists welcomed the declines as evidence that the job market is still recovering from the pandemic recession. But some cautioned that the improvement could prove short-lived. With confirmed infections having neared 60,000 in the past week, the most since July, consumers have been unable or reluctant to shop, travel, dine out or congregate in crowds -- a trend that has led some employers to keep cutting jobs. Several states are reporting a record number of hospitalizations from the virus.

"We doubt it will continue as COVID infections spread rapidly, pushing down demand for discretionary consumer services, especially in the hospitality sector," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, referring to the portion of the economy that includes hard-hit hotels, restaurants and bars.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #966 on: October 26, 2020, 06:10:18 PM »
Global Markets: Stocks slide on surging virus cases, stimulus doubts; dollar rises
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares fell across the globe on Monday as surging coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States clouded the world economic outlook, giving the dollar a safe-haven boost.

The United States, Russia and France set new daily records for coronavirus infections as a resurgence of the virus swelled across parts of the Northern Hemisphere, forcing some countries to impose new curbs.

The spreading pandemic, along with no clear progress on a U.S. stimulus package and caution ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election dragged the MSCI world equity index down.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 712.83 points, or 2.52%, to 27,622.74, the S&P 500 lost 73.34 points, or 2.12%, to 3,392.05 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 189.90 points, or 1.64%, to 11,358.38.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 1.72% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe shed 1.69%.
Emerging market stocks lost 0.66%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.41% lower, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.09%.

As markets increasingly price in the likelihood of a Democratic president and Congress which would likely result in a rise in government spending and borrowing, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest since early June last week at 0.872%.

“We have raised the probability of a Democratic sweep, already our base case, from 40% to just over 50% and have increased our expectation of (Democratic presidential candidate)Biden to win from 65% to 75%,” NatWest Markets analysts said. “We see steeper U.S. yield curves and a weaker USD as likely to prevail in our base case.”

Oil prices extended last week’s losses. OPEC’s secretary general said an oil market recovery may take longer than hoped as coronavirus inflections rise around the world, and OPEC and its allies would “stay the course” in balancing the market.

U.S. crude was down 3.64% at $38.40 per barrel and Brent was at $40.37, down 3.35% on the day.
https://www.reuters.com/article/global-markets/global-markets-stocks-slide-on-surging-virus-cases-stimulus-doubts-dollar-rises-idUSL1N2HH1EE
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #967 on: October 27, 2020, 10:36:37 AM »
Ranks of the Long-Term Unemployed Growing
https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/ranks-of-the-long-term-unemployed-growing/
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The ranks of the long-term unemployed – those out of work for 27 weeks or more – grew to 2.4 million in September, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. That’s the highest number since the beginning of the pandemic. The last time we saw this kind of jump in long-term unemployment was during the Great Recession.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans out of work for 15 weeks to 26 weeks stands at 5 million.

To put the growing number of long-term unemployed workers into some historical context, long-term unemployment hit a record high of 6.5 million and made up 44% of all unemployed workers in March 2010. That was 10-and-a-half months after the official end of the Great Recession in the summer of 2009. Long-term unemployed workers already make up 20% of the total unemployed just 8 months after the US economy fell into recession.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #968 on: October 28, 2020, 06:35:00 PM »
The post-Covid 'zombification' of advanced economies is here to stay, EIU warns
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LONDON — The coronavirus pandemic is likely to cause a long-lasting "zombification" of the global economy, a prominent research firm warns.

Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director of the Economist Intelligence Unit, suggested that those "zombie" features previously associated with the "Japanese economy — slow growth, low inflation and high debt — will become common across advanced economies" following the pandemic.

In the EIU's fourth quarter economic forecast report, published Wednesday, Demarais said that before the outbreak of the coronavirus Japan was considered an "economic oddity." Japan's economic crash, after its stock market and real estate bubble burst in 1989, was followed by a "'lost decade' of feeble growth between 1991 and 2001," said Demarais, who wrote the EIU report.  The Japanese government's attempt at boosting economic activity through fiscal stimulus failed, she said. Its debt-to-gross domestic product ratio climbed to 240% and inflation remained "stubbornly low."
 
As a result of the coronavirus, those characteristics of slow growth, low inflation and high levels of debt would now become common among advanced economies in decades to come, Demarais said.

"The pandemic may not last once a vaccine is found," she stated in the report. "However, the post-coronavirus zombification of advanced economies appears to be here to stay."

Indeed, this could be seen as advanced economies implemented "extraordinary" fiscal measures in response to the coronavirus crisis. G20 countries had so far announced stimulus programs worth around $11 trillion, which is nearly the same size of the Japanese, German and French economies combined.

The public-debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to around 140% of GDP across developed economies, Demarais predicted.  ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/eiu-warns-of-the-post-covid-zombification-of-advanced-economies.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #969 on: October 28, 2020, 08:21:26 PM »
"We are in a very serious situation," Merkel said at a press conference. "We must act, and now, to avoid an acute national health emergency."

Dow extends losses, dropping by 900 points as Europe reintroduces lockdowns
Oct. 28, 2020, 1:36 PM EDT
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Wall Street fell again on Wednesday, as parts of Europe announced additional lockdowns and U.S. cities such as Chicago and Newark, New Jersey, introduced a new round of restrictive measures to combat the spread of the coronavirus. ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/wall-street-tumbles-again-dow-falling-500-points-n1245080
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #970 on: October 29, 2020, 05:09:46 PM »
Knock-on Effects Knock out Economy Like Dominoes
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/knock-out-knock-on-effects-take-out-economy-like-dominoes/
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The major knock-on effects of the COVID shutdown are now starting to stack against each other, pushing city centers into the dust. Here are some of the big moves that are as characteristic of the US as they are of the world overall.


Former Fed Economist: This Recession Is ‘Unlike Anything We’ve Seen In The Past’
https://www.crn.com/news/mobility/former-fed-economist-this-recession-is-unlike-anything-we-ve-seen-in-the-past-
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Ultimately, it’s worth re-emphasizing that “this recession is something unlike anything that we have seen in the past,” Cunningham said. “Some segments of the economy are recovering. At the same time, we’ve got some slowness that’s going to be a problem for sectors in the economy for some time to come. And that bifurcation is a challenge that we’re going to be facing for a very long time—at least until we get a real handle on the global public health pandemic that put us into the situation in the first place.”

A deep recession should hurt Trump's reelection bid, but this isn't a usual downturn
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/investing/recession-stock-market-election-trump-biden/index.html
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"A lot of recessions are caused by high interest rates or the unwinding of a bubble," said Ashok Bhatia, deputy chief investment officer of fixed income with Neuberger Berman in an interview with CNN Business.
"One should be careful of saying that this recession is bad for the incumbent since it had a much different cause," he added.

Business Next: The recession has hit Erie County harder than its neighboring counties
https://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/news/2020/10/29/recession-impact-eight-wny-counties.html
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The effects of the 2020 recession seem more durable in Erie County, which spent five consecutive months this year with an unemployment rate worse than its Great Recession peak. No other Western New York county had a streak longer than four months, and Wyoming County endured only one month in 2020 that was worse than the previous recession.

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