Floods

[kassy]

UK weather: Heavy rain and flooding across England

...

At 22:00 GMT, there were 259 active flood warnings - meaning flooding is expected - across much of England, and two in Wales. There were also 338 flood alerts - meaning flooding is possible - in place across England and Wales.

BBC Weather Presenter Ben Rich said 2024 had "got off to an exceptionally wet start".

Parts of eastern England recorded nearly all their average January rainfall in just the first few days, he said, while many other spots have had well over half the rainfall they would normally expect during the whole month.

"This means river catchments are full and the ground is saturated - and saturated ground is not able to absorb any more moisture," he said, with this leading to flooding.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-67878565

[morganism]

Chance of an Atmo river following on the major snow coming to west coast of US. Jan 18-20?

[gerontocrat]

Impressive image of Jan 4 flood on the River Severn in England from https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152275/storm-batters-the-united-kingdom

[vox_mundi]

Google's Expanded 'Flood Hub' Uses AI to Help US Adapt to Extreme Weather
https://sites.research.google/floods/l/0/0/3



Google announced Tuesday that a tool using artificial intelligence to better predict river floods will be expanded to the U.S. and Canada, covering more than 800 North American riverside communities that are home to more than 12 million people. Google calls it Flood Hub, and it's the latest example of how AI is being used to help adapt to extreme weather events associated with climate change.

.... Brandt said Flood Hub's engineers use advanced AI, publicly available data sources and satellite imagery, combined with hydrologic models of river flows. The results allow flooding predictions with a longer lead time than was previously available in many instances.

"They kept tuning it to get to being able to predict it further in advance," she said. "Right now, we're able to predict seven days in advance."

---------------------------------------------------------

Bremen: https://sites.research.google/floods/l/52.975108181735294/9.11865234375/8/g/GRDC_6337200

Swindon, UK: https://sites.research.google/floods/l/51.411199044550045/-1.325225830078125/9/g/GRDC_6606347

[hst_319]

A lot of snow combined with a very aggressive temperature rise leads to severe flooding in South-Sweden.
Red(highest) warning issued. Loads of houses under water but no injuries, affected river is quite small. . Issue expected to worsen tonight.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/skane/se-oversvamningarna-i-kavlinge-ovanifran

[morganism]

(Swain has a new post up on the Cal storm coming in, looks like everything coming together for a major)

Rapidly strengthening Pacific storm to bring damaging windstorm to Central California, major flash flood risk to SoCal, and a big Sierra snowstorm

(snip)
As the NWS in Oxnard has been messaging strongly for days, this setup is conducive to one that could produce widespread, and quite possibly major, flash flooding and urban flooding throughout a highly populated part of Southern CA. The very highest risk still appears to be along and just below the Transverse Ranges from Santa Barbara County eastward into Los Angeles County, but later in the storm major flash flood risk will likely extend farther southeastward down to San Diego county and even south of the international border. Rapid inundations of fast-responding watersheds, significant urban and roadway flooding, and possibly also debris flows will be the main threats, but larger rivers also have the potential to flood in SoCal if rainbands are espsecially persistent.

Whether this is “merely” a notable or instead becomes a genuinely historic rain/flood event in SoCal will largely come down to two factors: 1) how long the initial frontal rainband and associated atmospheric river stall perpendicular to the Transverse Ranges , and 2) whether the secondary frontal wave/low pressure system, which will mainly affect areas from LA County southeastward Mon-Tue, becomes strong enough and stalls out long enough to produce a second round of heavy to very heavy precipitation. Right now, it is difficult to tell the degree to which either of these possibilities will play out. Either way, there’s going to be a ton of rain and a lot of flooding–but just how bad it gets will likely depend on these two still uncertain factors (and also whether any really intense localized thunderstorm downpours develop.

Substantial flood risk will also arise along the Central Coast from western Santa Barbara northward to the Santa Cruz Mountains. The Big Sur coast, in particular, will be hammered by this storm and debris flows/landslides of some magnitude are likely there. Here, the combination of a high-end windstorm with locally torrential downpours will likely yield considerable disruption and possibly significant damage that takes a while to recover from.

Northward into the SF Bay Area: this will likely not be a historic rainstorm for this part of the state. However, there is the potential for very intense hourly rainfall rates at the peak of the storm even this far north–possibly coinciding with damaging wind gusts and even lightning–so this has the potential to cause significant urban flooding and widespread creek/small stream flooding even into the Bay Area although larger rivers will likely stay within their banks. This will feel like a genuinely dramatic storm from the Central Coast up through much of the SF Bay region and Sacramento area due to the combination of high winds, very intense rainbands, and possibly some stronger thunderstorms mixed in.
(more)

https://weatherwest.com/archives/35471

[kassy]

Heavy rain and high winds are now lashing an area from Santa Barbara to Los Angeles, and could bring "life-threatening" flooding through Tuesday.

It is the result of an "atmospheric river" effect, which is caused by airborne currents of dense moisture.

...

National Weather Service forecasters say the storm could "likely produce 24 to 36 hours (or more) of continuous rain", with the worst expected between Sunday and Tuesday.

The region could see up to a month's worth of rain - about three to 12 inches (seven to 30 cm) - with rainfall rates peaking in some areas at an inch per hour.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68185319


About half a year's worth of rain could fall in Los Angeles and its surrounding areas on Monday.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68202944

[kassy]

Bolivia floods: Alert as torrential rains kill dozens


Hundreds of towns and villages in Bolivia have been put under alert as torrential rains continue to wreak havoc in the South American country.

Officials say 33 people have died since November due to the rains, which have triggered landslides and caused rivers to burst their banks.

The death toll is eight times higher than in the same period last year.

Officials are carefully monitoring a number of dams which they fear could overflow.

Deputy Minister for Civil Defence, Juan Carlos Calvimontes, said out of Bolivia's 340 municipalities, 10 had been put on the highest alert, and another 279 were on orange alert - the second highest.

...

Also in La Paz province, the authorities are keeping a close eye on the water levels in the Incachaca dam.

Government experts together with the mayor of the city of La Paz, which is located downstream from the dam, inspected it on Sunday.

Mayor Iván Arias said that while the water level in the reservoir had "reached 100%", the water was currently draining well and he did not foresee "any major consequences downstream".

Three more reservoirs - Hampaturi Alto, Pampalarama and Alpaquita - are also at their maximum level.

The heavy rains have hit Bolivia after a prolonged drought and one of the hottest winters the country has experienced.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68338020

[be cause]

I see friends have been marking themselves safe in severe flooding in Acre state Brazil .

https://www.google.com/maps/@/data=!4m2!21m1!1s%2Fg%2F11vqzwd78y?rlz=1CAHDRM_enGB1079GB1079&oq=floods+in+Acre&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCDk0OThqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

https://reliefweb.int/report/brazil/brazil-floods-inmet-government-acre-who-paho-echo-daily-flash-28-february-2024

[morganism]

Flood Hub by Google is up.)

How does AI make flood forecasting possible?

[Rodius]

Sydney is being hit with a major storm and parts of Sydney have been told to evacuate.


NSW weather: evacuations and flood warnings for parts of Sydney as state braces for more storms and heavy rain
SES issues evacuation orders as suburbs on Sydney’s fringes and in NSW Hunter region face threat of flooding as storms shift south

BoM weather radar: track the path of the storms and latest updates and warnings for NSW and Queensland
Get our morning and afternoon news emails, free app or daily news podcast
Australian Associated Press and Jordyn Beazley
Sat 6 Apr 2024 09.35 AEDT
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Suburbs on Sydney’s fringes are facing the threat of significant flooding as intense storms slowly shift south.

More than a month’s worth of rain fell over Sydney, Port Macquarie and Taree on Friday, delaying trains, cutting power and leading to evacuation alerts.

Warragamba dam, which holds most of Sydney’s water supply, reached full capacity and began spilling early on Saturday morning – two days earlier than predicted.

Evacuation orders were issued by the SES for 11 locations overnight on Friday and Saturday morning, including along the Hawkesbury-Nepean river system, lowlying parts of Chipping Norton in western Sydney and North Narrabeen on the northern beaches.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/05/flood-threat-for-outer-sydney-suburbs-as-more-storms-set-to-follow-deluge

[Stephan]

Floods in Russia S of Ural Mountains in Orsk and surroundings. The flood was a combination of snow melt, heavy rain and two dams that broke.
Some pictures and further information (in German):
https://www.msn.com/de-de/wetter/topgeschichten/hochwasser-in-russland-d%C3%A4mme-gebrochen-h%C3%A4user-unter-wasser-tausende-evakuiert/ar-BB1ldzgp?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ACTS&cvid=92142eebf6d94e13a15573f9d23ef4e9&ei=6

[kassy]

Hundreds rescued from Australia flooding as government declares natural disaster


Australian authorities have rescued hundreds of people stranded due to flooding in the eastern state of New South Wales after the region was lashed by nearly a month’s worth of rainfall within 24 hours.

The intense rainfall, which saw around 300 homes evacuated in north-east Sydney, led to the government declaring a natural emergency across NSW.

Sydney received 111mm (4.4 inches) of rainfall over the 24 hours to Friday morning compared to a mean rainfall of 121.5mm for April, marking the region’s seventh flood in the past 18 months.

...

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/australia-flood-rainfall-rescue-nsw-b2524699.html

[Rodius]

Hundreds rescued from Australia flooding as government declares natural disaster


Australian authorities have rescued hundreds of people stranded due to flooding in the eastern state of New South Wales after the region was lashed by nearly a month’s worth of rainfall within 24 hours.

The intense rainfall, which saw around 300 homes evacuated in north-east Sydney, led to the government declaring a natural emergency across NSW.

Sydney received 111mm (4.4 inches) of rainfall over the 24 hours to Friday morning compared to a mean rainfall of 121.5mm for April, marking the region’s seventh flood in the past 18 months.

...

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/australia-flood-rainfall-rescue-nsw-b2524699.html

So much for the idea of dry seasons during El Nino... this El Nino, in Australia, hasn't behaved normally at all.

[morganism]

(Russia not done flooding. This is from the Sochi area, where the winter Olys were held.)

The largest avalanche has descended from Mount Fisht in Sochi. More than a thousand cubes of snow, stones and soil fell from a huge height. Preliminary, there are no casualties.


https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1778480957906894848/pu/vid/avc1/262x480/neNKVpRM5lzB_bHJ.mp4?tag=12

[kassy]

Pakistan: Lightning and unusually heavy rain kill dozens

At least 39 people have been killed in Pakistan after days of unusually heavy rains battered the country's southwest.

Some of those killed were farmers struck by lightning while harvesting wheat, authorities said.

Images online show swathes of farmland engulfed by rainwater. Flash floods have also disrupted power supplies and transportation networks.

Pakistan has experienced an increase in extreme weather events, as it grapples with the impacts of climate change.

In 2022, parts of the country were completely submerged by unprecedented flooding, killing more than 1,700 people and injuring thousands. Millions were left homeless and lacked clean drinking water for months after.

Some of the areas affected by the 2022 floods, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, are being impacted again by the recent storms.

With more rain expected in the coming days, Pakistan's National Disaster Management Authority has also warned of landslides and flash floods.

...

Extensive areas of Pasni, a Baloch coastal town, have been covered by rainwater.

"Pasni looks like a big lake at the moment as flash floods entered the human settlements and main commercial areas," Noor Ahmed Kalmati, chairman of the town's municipal committee, told Pakistan newspaper Dawn.

Heavy flooding has also been reported in neighbouring Afghanistan. At least 33 people have been killed and hundreds of homes damaged or destroyed, Afghan authorities said on Sunday.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68823490

[Niall Dollard]

Incredible rainfall in the UAE.

Dubai International Airport has recorded almost 160mm in the past 24 hours. This climate table lists the annual average there is just less than 80mm. 2 year's of rain in just 1 day !

[morganism]

58 killed by 2 weeks of floods in Tanzania
Floods due to ongoing heavy rains in Tanzania have killed 58 people, the government said. East Africa is experiencing heavy rains, with reported flooding in neighboring Kenya killing at least 13 people so far. The rains are expected to reach their peak towards the end of this month.
Published 9:15 AM MST, April 16, 2024

https://apnews.com/video/floods-natural-disasters-storms-tanzania-national-b9aa910552234e6889cd1b8e440d19ed

[Niall Dollard]

Re the above storms in Dubai, the tin foil hat brigade are out. Judith Curry chiming in with the attached tweet. She refers to an article in Grazia magazine by journalist Falah Gulzar who makes the call and I cannot see any meteorolgist attributing it to cloud seeding.

According to her linkedIn profile, Falah Gulzar is an expert in "storytelling".

Indeed.

[El Cid]

Incredible rainfall in the UAE.

Dubai International Airport has recorded almost 160mm in the past 24 hours. This climate table lists the annual average there is just less than 80mm. 2 year's of rain in just 1 day !

On the one hand that is how desert climates work. Sometimes the whole of the year's rainfall falls in 1 or 2 days. OTOH, Arabia used to be a dry steppe even a few thousand years ago and with AGW it is likely that the Indian monsoon will push further nort-west and might move that area back towards a dry steppe climate.

[gerontocrat]

We might see a big surge into the Arctic Ocean in 2-3(?) weeks down the Ob River.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68824882

Russia Kazakhstan floods: 'Colossal' floods heading for Kurgan

Flooding has already devastated areas of Orenburg region further west

By Robert Greenall
BBC News
A "colossal" amount of water is moving towards the Russian city of Kurgan, the region's governor has said.

Vadim Shumkov said that the swollen Tobol river and its tributaries had produced water levels twice those of the last major flood in 1994.

Floods over the past two weeks have forced evacuations of tens of thousands of people from northern Kazakhstan and bordering areas of Russia.

They are caused by the rapid melting of snow and ice combined with heavy rain.

On his Telegram channel, Mr Shumkov urged everyone in areas threatened by flooding to leave their houses immediately, with waters expected to rise as high as 11m (36ft) above normal.

"This isn't just a flood, it's a genuine threat!" he said.

"Therefore, take children, elderly people, relatives with limited mobility and neighbours to a temporary shelter or to friends and acquaintances. Collect documents and valuables."

Kurgan - a city with more than 300,000 inhabitants - is the location of the military factory Kurganmashzavod, whose production includes infantry fighting vehicles and light tanks. There has been speculation by foreign defence media that it may at some point be in the flood zone.

People in the town of Ishim further east have also been asked to evacuate because of high levels of the river of the same name.

Petropavl in northern Kazakhstan has also been badly affected by flooding of the river Ishim. A number of rivers flow back and forth between the two countries.

Elena Kurzayeva, a 67-year-old Petropavl pensioner, told AFP on Sunday: "I was taken out yesterday and within 15 minutes, the water had come in."

Water levels in both the Ishim and the Tobol, which form part of the world's seventh longest Ob river system, are not expected to peak until 23 or 24 April.



Focus has shifted to the two rivers after flooding in the Ural river basin devastated a swathe of Russian and Kazakh territory further west last week.

The flooding is being described as the worst to hit the region in 80 years.

In the city of Orenburg, houses in some areas were left almost completely submerged.

A week earlier, the city of Orsk was badly affected after a dam burst and saw rare public protests over how officials handled the floods.

Russian Emergencies Minister Alexander Kurenkov, who is visiting the area, has assured Orsk residents they will be compensated.

[The Walrus]

Incredible rainfall in the UAE.

Dubai International Airport has recorded almost 160mm in the past 24 hours. This climate table lists the annual average there is just less than 80mm. 2 year's of rain in just 1 day !

On the one hand that is how desert climates work. Sometimes the whole of the year's rainfall falls in 1 or 2 days. OTOH, Arabia used to be a dry steppe even a few thousand years ago and with AGW it is likely that the Indian monsoon will push further nort-west and might move that area back towards a dry steppe climate.

A similar change could occur in portions of the Sahara with the African monsoons.

[Niall Dollard]

"The NCM said it had tracked the incoming heavy rainfall but did not target any clouds during that period, attributing the storm to natural rainfall".

This follows a somewhat mischievous report yesterday circulated by Bloomberg who quoted a "specialist" meteorolgist attributing the heavy rainfall to cloud seeding.

Truth is detailed here. No seeding took place.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/uae-denies-cloud-seeding-took-place-before-severe-dubai-floods.html

[kassy]

A "cut off" low pressure weather system, which drew in warm, moist air and blocked other weather systems from coming through was the main cause.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68839043

[vox_mundi]

Southern China Storms Kill Four, Force Mass Evacuations
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-tens-thousands-evacuated-storms-south.html