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Author Topic: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences  (Read 34141 times)

The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #750 on: July 12, 2020, 05:08:06 PM »
Thus begins the decline into the equivocation abyss.

blumenkraft

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #751 on: July 12, 2020, 06:47:28 PM »
Walrus, don't get me wrong. I'm all for precice words.

Blame the economists, not me. ;)
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #752 on: July 12, 2020, 06:55:46 PM »
From the Wikipedia article:
Quote
Generally, periods labeled depressions are marked by a substantial and sustained shortfall of the ability to purchase goods relative to the amount that could be produced using current resources and technology (potential output).[2] Another proposed definition of depression includes two general rules:[3][4]

a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%, or
a recession lasting 2 or more years.
There are also differences in the duration of depression across definitions. Some economists refer only to the period when economic activity is declining. The more common use, however, also encompasses the time until the economic activity has returned close to normal levels.[1]
AFAIK we are already at 10% or more GDP decline for at least a couple months, right? We will see in about twenty months if the recession lasts two years. And I don't kow how to evaluate the first definition.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #753 on: July 12, 2020, 08:05:34 PM »
Yes, hindsight is always a better viewpoint.  We just ended the first quarter of the recession.  Technically, a recession is two quarters of negative gdp, but I will jump the gun here.  The recession of 2008-9 encompassed four quarters of negative gdp, with a maximum of 8% drop in the fourth quarter of 2008.  We have endured one quarter of a 5% drop.  Many consider the 1980/82 recession to be a greater hardship with double dip declines of 8% and 6% combined with high inflation.  Predicting that we will be in a depression two years from now requires keen insight and extraordinary knowledge of economics.  I will readily admit to neither. 

gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #754 on: July 12, 2020, 08:52:07 PM »
Bloomberg thinks the markets will behave as follows....

Bulls to Gain Ground in Market Primed for Virus-Defying Rally

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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #755 on: July 12, 2020, 09:09:39 PM »
From Flour to Canned Soup, Coronavirus Surge Pressures Food Supplies
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/coronavirus-surge-challenges-struggling-food-supply-chains-11594546200

Food makers work to meet rising demand after initial lockdowns ate through inventories

Grocers are having trouble staying stocked with goods from flour to soups as climbing coronavirus case numbers and continued lockdowns pressure production and bolster customer demand.

Manufacturers including General Mills Inc., Campbell Soup Co. and Conagra Brands Inc. say they are pumping out food as fast as they can, but can’t replenish inventories. Popular items such as flour, canned soup, pasta and rice remain in short supply.

As of July 5, 10% of packaged foods, beverages and household goods were out of stock, up from 5% to 7% before the pandemic, according to market-research firm IRI.

“We are running flat out,” said Conagra’s Chief Executive Sean Connolly. He said Conagra won’t be able to build up inventory of certain brands, such as Chef Boyardee and Healthy Choice, unless demand slows or it further increases manufacturing capacity.



Food makers and grocers expect prolonged shelter-in-place orders and restrictions on restaurants, as well as the battered economy, to result in a longer stretch of eating at home. Added safety measures at plants are slowing operations, too. There is enough food in the U.S. to keep people fed, executives say, but every product might not be available everywhere while inventories are strained.

Many retailers in states where cases are surging, including Texas-based H-E-B LP, are reinstating rationing on high-demand items including paper products. They say their distributors are still capping the amount of fast-selling products that can be ordered at one time.

In mid-March, flour sales soared 233% from a year earlier, according to market-research firm Nielsen and remained 25% higher in June than the prior year.

Mark Griffin, president of Nebraska-based B&R Stores Inc., said the chain would be in worse shape if cases rise again in the Midwest because it lacks the inventory it had in March. B&R has been stockpiling bottled water and other products at its warehouses, he said. The grocer has also tried to secure new suppliers for canned products, baking items and ramen noodles. So far, that has only yielded a truckload here and there, Mr. Griffin said.

Soup is particularly hard to source, he said: “There’s no plethora of manufacturers available.”

Campbell’s CEO Mark Clouse said the company ran through reserves of its namesake soup and snacks such as Pepperidge Farm Goldfish crackers during the initial rush of orders in the spring. That demand was a shock to a supply chain that had been largely recalibrated to handle flat or falling demand over the past decade, he said: “We’re racing to try to rebuild some inventory.”

... Wisconsin-based grocer Festival Foods is receiving about 80% of the goods it orders and is removing some products from shelves to make room for roughly double the toilet paper it normally stocks, said Chief Executive Mark Skogen.

... Farmer Direct Foods Inc., a Kansas flour mill and supplier for King Arthur, is filling about 35 trucks a month with flour, up from 18 typically.

The mill has run out of packaging at times, said CEO Bob Morando, and equipment has broken down because he added a shift and hasn’t had time to do preventive maintenance.
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #756 on: July 13, 2020, 03:52:25 AM »
Big gets bigger: ritholtz on corp sizes and gains

Image from https://ritholtz.com/2020/07/10-tuesday-am-reads-295/

sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #757 on: July 13, 2020, 01:49:34 PM »
”Since the summer of 2019, I've been speaking with one of the world's leading pandemic experts about what a global outbreak could look like. Now, as the world enters a grim new phase, he says we're in a whole new ball game.”

'We'll be living with masks for years': COVID-19 through the eyes of a pandemic expert
Quote
"I think what's important is that there's going to be no summertime lull with a big wave in the fall. It's clear that we are having a significant resurgence of cases in the summer, and they'll get bigger. And it'll keep going until we lock things down again."

Unlike the influenza virus, which was behind the 1918 pandemic that claimed as many as 50 million to 100 million lives around the world, Toner says there's no good evidence of seasonality with COVID-19. Until we have a vaccine, any rise or fall in cases will be based on social factors: communities locking down and families sheltering in place. And, as was the case back in 1918, individuals wearing masks
...
As for those who refuse to wear a mask?
"They will get over it.  It's just a question of how many people get sick and die before they get over it."
https://www.cnet.com/news/living-with-masks-for-years-covid-19-through-the-eyes-of-a-pandemic-expert/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.