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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 804437 times)

AndrewP

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Re: Weird Weather
« Reply #150 on: August 25, 2013, 08:33:23 PM »
The U.S. National Weather Service estimates the chances of an American's home being destroyed by a tornado as 1 in 10 million.

On May 3, 1999 a home in Moore, Oklahoma was destroyed by an F4 tornado. The owner subsequently rebuilt on the same site.

On May 20, 2013 that rebuilt home was destroyed by an (est'd) EF4 tornado.
track-vs-1999.png[/img]

The chances of this occurring randomly? 1 in 100 Trillion. (1 : 1014)

That's not just 'weird'. That's suspicious.

First of all 1 in 10 million seems a bit low to me. That would suggest only 10 homes are destroyed each year. Annual average losses are $5 billion, although much of that is probably minor property damage. But I would have guessed than the number of homes 'destroyed' would be on the order of 100-1,000 per year. Let's say 100. Probably 10X that in Oklahoma, which would be 1 in 100,000 homes per year.

Over a 60 year period, this would be 60 in 100,000. The probability of being hit twice would be 3,600 in 10,000,000,000 or ~4 in 10,000,000.

The probability of not being hit twice in Oklahoma in that time period is 9,999,996 in 10,000,000.

If there are 2 million homes in Oklahoma, the probability that none of them being hit twice during that time period is (9,999,996/10,000,000)^2,000,000 or .45.

This means that the probability that over 60 years the probability of at least one house being hit twice in Oklahoma is 55%.


Of course these are a lot of rough estimates, and the population of Oklahoma was no where near what it is today 60 years ago. But this very rough estimate should give you some idea of the order of magnitude of this probability.

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #151 on: August 25, 2013, 08:44:49 PM »
I hate those general statistical statements, because they rarely include the time period. I'm guessing this one left out "on any particular day."

I know someone who just moved out of OK both because so many major tornadoes had hit near her house in the last few years, and because the heat and drought had gotten so bad. I wonder if anyone is trying to count these kinds of 'silent climate refugees.' (She is also well read on GW, and had concluded that OK was not a good place to be, long term.)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather
« Reply #152 on: August 25, 2013, 10:09:39 PM »

There is no long-term trend in tornado frequencies in the U.S. In addition, a number of papers suggest that U.S. tornado frequency is likely to decrease with climate change, not increase. So the rare event you are referring to may have occurred in spite of, not because of, climate change.

Actually, there are trends that suggest an increase in tornado frequency in the U.S. although there is no evidence that AGW is the cause.


Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #153 on: August 25, 2013, 10:13:39 PM »
There is, however, no evidence of an increase in the severity of tornados.

Even the increase in frequency is not certain. There have been major advances in our ability to identify tornados and there is some indication that the increase in reporting of F0 and F1 tornados may be due to this.

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #154 on: August 25, 2013, 11:38:24 PM »
IIRC, what has changed is the time when tornadoes hit. Bigger and bigger tornadoes are hitting earlier and earlier. And I think their distribution may be changing, showing up in places where they had hardly ever struck before. But, yeah, the overall severity and frequency had not changed much. GW increases frequency of things that interrupt tornadoes even as it increases conditions that promote them, so it's kind of a wash (again, iirc).
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AndrewP

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Re: Weird Weather
« Reply #155 on: August 26, 2013, 02:27:03 AM »

There is no long-term trend in tornado frequencies in the U.S. In addition, a number of papers suggest that U.S. tornado frequency is likely to decrease with climate change, not increase. So the rare event you are referring to may have occurred in spite of, not because of, climate change.

Actually, there are trends that suggest an increase in tornado frequency in the U.S. although there is no evidence that AGW is the cause.

Numerous studies have attributed this rise to better detection. I did not say that there is no trend in "detected tornadoes." I said there is no rise in actual tornadoes.

Studies are inconclusive regarding tornado frequency with some suggesting slight increases or decreases. I think the majority is leaning towards a slight decrease at this point.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather
« Reply #156 on: August 26, 2013, 05:51:06 PM »

Numerous studies have attributed this rise to better detection. I did not say that there is no trend in "detected tornadoes." I said there is no rise in actual tornadoes.

Studies are inconclusive regarding tornado frequency with some suggesting slight increases or decreases. I think the majority is leaning towards a slight decrease at this point.

If you had read my 2nd comment, you would have noted that I indicated an improvement in detection might explain the increase in frequency. This is particularly so since most of the increase in frequency is in F0 and F1 tornados (also noted in my post).

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather
« Reply #157 on: August 26, 2013, 06:05:03 PM »
I did not say that there is no trend in "detected tornadoes." I said there is no rise in actual tornadoes.

I also did not say that there was a definite rise in actual tornados. I said that "there are trends that suggest an increase in tornado frequency in the U.S."

You may want to read a commenter's post more carefully before working to refute a statement not made.

AndrewP

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #158 on: August 26, 2013, 09:14:38 PM »
I said "There are no trends in tornado activity"

You said "Actually, there are trends which suggest there is."


That sounds like you are disagreeing with my true statement and implying the trends are realistic.

If you want to get really technical, I never said that you said there is a real trend. I just re-emphasized that I said there is not. When you start posts with "Actually" and "However" people are going to assume you are disagreeing with the content of their post.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #159 on: August 26, 2013, 10:02:05 PM »
I said "There are no trends in tornado activity"

You said "Actually, there are trends which suggest there is."


That sounds like you are disagreeing with my true statement and implying the trends are realistic.

If you want to get really technical, I never said that you said there is a real trend. I just re-emphasized that I said there is not. When you start posts with "Actually" and "However" people are going to assume you are disagreeing with the content of their post.

It is remarkable that the use of "actually" or "however" is evidence to you that a person is disagreeing with a comment you have made. In fact, if you had read each of my very short posts, you would have noticed I was not disagreeing with anything you were saying but merely adding some information that could form a basis for continuing a discussion.

The first post was all of one sentence long and accompanied by a graph.

The second post was three sentences long and accompanied by a second graph.

I come here (most often lurk) because I have found this site to be an excellent source of information that can help me better understand AGW. I also believe that having different commenters, far more knowledgeable than I, argue their particular perspectives is very useful as I can begin to grasp where consensus exists and where uncertainty about the science is still present.

Having read many of your posts, I consider you to be one of those individuals who I might learn from and hope that you continue to argue forcefully in support of your perspective.

Looking for an argument or manufacturing a disagreement where none exists is an entirely different matter and not really very useful in furthering a discussion.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2013, 10:12:35 PM by Shared Humanity »

AndrewP

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #160 on: August 26, 2013, 11:23:44 PM »
I said "There are no trends in tornado activity"

You said "Actually, there are trends which suggest there is."


That sounds like you are disagreeing with my true statement and implying the trends are realistic.

If you want to get really technical, I never said that you said there is a real trend. I just re-emphasized that I said there is not. When you start posts with "Actually" and "However" people are going to assume you are disagreeing with the content of their post.

It is remarkable that the use of "actually" or "however" is evidence to you that a person is disagreeing with a comment you have made. In fact, if you had read each of my very short posts, you would have noticed I was not disagreeing with anything you were saying but merely adding some information that could form a basis for continuing a discussion.

The first post was all of one sentence long and accompanied by a graph.

The second post was three sentences long and accompanied by a second graph.

I come here (most often lurk) because I have found this site to be an excellent source of information that can help me better understand AGW. I also believe that having different commenters, far more knowledgeable than I, argue their particular perspectives is very useful as I can begin to grasp where consensus exists and where uncertainty about the science is still present.

Having read many of your posts, I consider you to be one of those individuals who I might learn from and hope that you continue to argue forcefully in support of your perspective.

Looking for an argument or manufacturing a disagreement where none exists is an entirely different matter and not really very useful in furthering a discussion.

Perhaps I misinterpreted it, but it very much read as disagreement to me. Part of the internet I guess.

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #161 on: August 27, 2013, 03:40:50 AM »
Quote
NZ: Warmest winter since records began -1800's

New Zealand has experienced one of the warmest winters since records began in the mid-19th century, a climate expert says.

This year has brought on unseasonably warm temperatures during late July and throughout August, with an average 9.5C.

The normal average during this time is 8.3C.

Climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger said this winter had been one of the warmest since records began in the 1860s, with temperatures normally expected in spring and early summer coming a month early.

"September-like temperatures have been occurring throughout August, giving the country its warmest winter and August ever," Dr Salinger said.

Before this year, the warmest winter was in 1998, when an average 9.3C was recorded.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11114280

Comment from the New Zealander, "yeahbut," who shared this link with me on another blog:

"It really has been crazy warm this winter, I haven't bothered lighting the fire hardly at all. This comes on the back of one of the hottest and driest summers ever for NZ."
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

JimD

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #162 on: August 27, 2013, 07:36:26 PM »
Big dust storms and heavy rain and flooding in AZ

The haboobs have always occurred but the frequency has increased a lot in recent years.

http://weather.aol.com/2013/08/27/watch-massive-dust-storm-blows-through-phoenix/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl8%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D364076

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How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #163 on: August 27, 2013, 10:20:06 PM »
Haven't they gotten bigger, too?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Laurent

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #164 on: August 27, 2013, 10:31:53 PM »

An other flood in Pakistan, 1,5 million people have been hit !
« Last Edit: August 27, 2013, 10:38:00 PM by Laurent »

oztralian

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #165 on: September 06, 2013, 04:49:51 AM »
Firstly, I would like to say hello to everyone.  I stumbled upon this site yesterday and thought I'd post my observations.  I've been living in Western Australia for 12 years now.  I've noticed that for the past 2 years, our summers have been not only unusually hot, but we've also had quite a few humid days, which is very unusual, as it's never humid in summer here.  The beach was always rather cold, but for the past 2 years, it has felt warmer than usual.  I'm not saying this is all climate change related, but I have spoken to a few locals who have been living here longer than I have, and while they say they don't believe in global warming, they did say that  the climate has changed.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2013, 04:56:48 AM by oztralian »

Vergent

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #166 on: September 06, 2013, 05:46:00 AM »
Oztralian,

Welcome to ASIF. You do not have to believe in physics to be subject to it's laws.

Vergent

ivica

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #167 on: September 07, 2013, 06:30:11 AM »
Pacific Island Nations Tell The World ‘Climate Change Has Arrived’ by Jeff Spross on September 6, at Thinkprogress.
Quote
“Climate change has arrived,” and the world must act. That’s the message from fifteen nations in the southwestern Pacific, who signed a statement yesterday calling on other countries to join them in “the urgent reduction and phase down of greenhouse gas pollution.”
The most vulnerable - the Marshall Islands, Kiribati and Tuvalu - have already serious problems with any type of weird weather, and add tides to that.

Kiritimati - Christmas Island Documentary - Between Sky and Ocean (27 min)

'Sinking' paradise, eh. Why am I, as 45N dweller, so much attracted by such southern places...
« Last Edit: September 07, 2013, 07:13:49 AM by ivica »

oztralian

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #168 on: September 07, 2013, 07:01:49 AM »
Yes indeed, Vergent.   I see wave height in this area has increased by over a metre since 1985.

My favourite beach, (which normally has relatively small--to no waves,) had freakishly huge/dangerous waves crashing to the shore on several occasions last summer.  I have never seen anything like that before.

Jim Hunt

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NSIDC closed due to severe weather
« Reply #169 on: September 12, 2013, 06:45:10 PM »
Slightly weird spelling, but does this count as weird weather?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24068804

Quote
Flooding from a fast-moving storm in Colorado has killed two people and led to the evacuation of hundreds of homes.

Many roads are closed because of high water and debris, preventing rescue crews from reaching the stranded.

Up to 7in (17cm) of rain fell in three hours in the Boulder area on Thursday morning, the third day of rain.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

deep octopus

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #170 on: September 13, 2013, 12:25:51 AM »
Absolutely insane rain in Boulder. Goes beyond simply "weird" and into a realm of its own, IMO.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2013/09/12/colorado-deluge-could-be-classified-as-a-1000-year-event/#.UjI-jD9ASko

Quote
Colorado Deluge: “Could Be Classified as a 1,000-Year Event”

The Satellite Blog of the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies has just posted some dramatic remote sensing imagery of the continuing deluge here in Colorado. And in the explanation of what’s been happening, the author of the post, Scott Lindstrom, concluded that the extraordinary amount of rainfall we’ve experienced here in the Boulder area “could be classified as a 1,000-year event.”

Make no mistake about it: The rainfall has simply been astonishing — upwards of 12 inches in less than 24 hours in some locations near Boulder. And it has caused quite a bit of devastating flooding, as well as two deaths in this area, and another one further south.

snip

pikaia

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #171 on: September 13, 2013, 01:32:19 AM »
The flooding of the Amur River in Russia and China began a month ago and is expected to continue for several weeks, when temperatures will fall to freezing, causing more problems. The river level has been two metres above its previous record and expected to rise another metre. The satellite photos show the enormous extent of the flooding.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/09/10/2597341/historic-flooding-russian-chinese-border/

mabs

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #172 on: September 13, 2013, 05:46:33 AM »
What is going on in Colorado is ... epic. What makes it even scarier is that they had no warning. No one had seen it coming. The Weather Channel is my background noise these days (if I hear one more thing about Syria I minght punch a small, fluffy, furry thing  >:() and I saw no forecast for "rainfall of biblical proportions." It could basically happen anywhere at any time.
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deep octopus

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #173 on: September 13, 2013, 06:35:10 PM »
Quote
@EricHolthaus Its official: Record flooding on the Big Thompson River, near Loveland Colorado. #Boulderflood http://1.usa.gov/19P3t8n 

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #174 on: September 13, 2013, 06:36:06 PM »
Well, Intellicast.com is sure misrepresenting recent rainfall in the US West!  Denver/Boulder Colorado is getting lots of rain - on the order of 12 inches this week.   Also, although it did rain in NW Utah, the graphic looks suspicious and I'm fairly sure they did not get 8 inches of rain in the area this past week. - I see a NOAA report indicating amounts around 3 inches in the state (e.g. Zion Nat'l. Park), but NW Utah may not have received 2 inches.

(I'm removing my previous post which compared Intellicast totals...)
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #175 on: September 13, 2013, 07:31:27 PM »
Does anyone still believe that increased rainfall around the globe will be good for agriculture?

deep octopus

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #176 on: September 13, 2013, 08:31:00 PM »
Water, water everywhere... Nearly half of New Mexico is under a flash flood watch and the city of Santa Fe is under a flash flood warning. A couple of weeks ago, the American southwest was in drought. Fair to say the past week is going to reverse it pretty dramatically, at least temporarily.

ritter

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #177 on: September 13, 2013, 11:04:55 PM »
Does anyone still believe that increased rainfall around the globe will be good for agriculture?

You made me snort! Thanks.


wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #178 on: September 14, 2013, 01:43:24 PM »
DO, yes, the irony is that nearly all of the southwest had just been designated to be under Long Term Drought by the US Drought Monitor. It will be interesting to see if this changes that, since a single heavy rain does not necessarily significantly alter the effects of a long-term deficit (depending on how they are computing things exactly).

Actually, about the worst kind of whiplash for an eco-system is deep, long drought that weakens and withers much of the plant life, followed by torrential rains that wash what's left right out of the soil, and the soil with it.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

mabs

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #179 on: September 15, 2013, 11:29:02 PM »
There are now over 1000 people unaccounted for in the Colorado flood and they just officially got a year's worth of rain in 5 days, with more to come. Of course, 1000 unaccounted for does not mean they are all gone for good, but the number has been doubling almost every day... The National Guard said yesterday that they performed the most air evacuations since Hurricane Katrina.

The rain was supposed to end tomorrow (Monday), but the latest projections have moved the end-of-rain to Tuesday. There is a low and a high on either side of Denver and they are not budging. Both these systems are funneling humid air from the Gulf over the city, up the mountains where it condenses to produce record amounts of rain. It has produced virtually stationary storms over the Denver area. They are stuck, as in not moving and not going away.
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JimD

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #180 on: September 16, 2013, 06:15:51 PM »
And to complement the disaster in Boulder, where they get a years rain in a few days, we travel around the world to Kyoto.

Just hit by a 'moderate' typhoon with winds of 100mph.  Yet they get rain that the Meteorological service says is "unprecedented".   260,000 evacuated.

Makes you wonder a bit how all the big storms now seem to just be carrying a huge amount of water.  Sure brings home that figure oft quoted that for every 1 deg C rise in temp the air holds an extra 7% moisture.  I have this vision of what a big rain storm will be like in about 30 years.

http://news.msn.com/world/powerful-typhoon-lashes-japan-thousands-evacuate?ocid=ansnews11&stay=1
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #181 on: September 16, 2013, 06:51:02 PM »
Here is an interesting side story about the Boulder flooding.

Leaking drilling fluids.

There are hundreds of drilling sites underwater.  Some of the onsite storage tanks are tipping over and leaking. (see pictures in article)

Quote
He observed “hundreds” of wells that were inundated. He also saw many condensate tanks that hold waste material from fracking at odd angles or even overturned.

A lot of this leaked waste water will flow over agricultural land and soak into the soil (yuck!).

http://www.texassharon.com/2013/09/15/is-there-a-media-blackout-on-the-fracking-flood-disaster-in-colorado/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Jmo

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #182 on: September 17, 2013, 02:12:50 AM »
A few from Oz:

Southern tablelands grape growers fear late frosts after earliest budding ever recorded.

Much of Australia broke records for the warmest winter ever.

Last 12 months, Australia’s:
-  hottest day on record

- hottest week on record

- hottest month on record

- hottest summer on record

Right now in the SE, record rainfalls for this time of year. Eg:

"Weather bureau forecaster says such heavy rain is highly unusual for this time of year.

"For September we've actually never had this much rain at all at this time of year,".

"We tend to associate these very heavy rainfall events with the warmer months because warm air basically holds more moisture in the atmosphere.

"So to do it in September is unprecedented as far as my records sitting in front of me."

JimD

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #183 on: September 20, 2013, 06:40:24 PM »
On the news last night the weatherman said that Phoenix had a record hot summer this year.  Average temperature for the summer was 95.1 F, previous record was 94.9 F.  Note this is the average over the entire 90 days not just average highs (which would have been about 108 F).

The year is not over yet but we have seen the 4th hottest day ever (119 F) and are above average for days above 100 F (around 110 I think) and days above 110 F (20+ I think). 

The most days above 100 F was in 1989 at 143. And the most days above 110 F was 33 in 2011.

10 of the 13 hottest days ever were since 1989.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #184 on: October 04, 2013, 04:50:04 PM »
Australia's long heat wave continues with the hottest Sept since records have been kept.

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Nationally, September temperatures averaged nearly 5°F above normal. That beat the previous hottest September, set in 1983, by a full 2°F. This September also happened to be the most anomalously warm month of record, narrowly edging April 2005 by 0.2°F. In other words, Australia has never had a month so freakishly above average.

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The summer of 2013 ended up being Australia's hottest on record, and since January, monthly temperatures have stayed above normal. The average temperature for the year-to-date is 2.8°F above normal. If the year ended today, this would be Australia's hottest year-to-date, putting it ahead of 2005 by a full half a degree Fahrenheit.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/australia-has-its-hottest-september-as-fire-threat-grows-16566
 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #185 on: October 05, 2013, 04:44:28 PM »
South Dakota has been hit by nearly 3 feet of snow and tornados.

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #186 on: October 06, 2013, 06:18:09 AM »
I know it's not unusual for them to get a good amount of snow in the Black Hills area this time of year. But given what happened north of their in Calgary this spring, then south in CO this summer, I can't help but think of this as the third extreme precipitation event to hit in the areas along the west side of the Rockies. Does anyone know if this storm had a similar pattern to either of those.

The tornadoes seem a bit weird for this time of year, too.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #187 on: October 15, 2013, 02:47:02 PM »
Our system (the earth) is so large and complex and spans so many areas of human knowledge that we cannot even begin to grasp the impact of AGW. Different scientific disciplines are each, in their own way, discovering and trying to understand shifts that are accelerating rapidly. None of these changes, most of which we are not even aware of, will have favorable impacts as our complex ecosystem is knocked out of balance. The link provides one tiny example.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/15/science/earth/something-is-killing-off-the-moose.html?_r=0

We don't know what we don't know and when the unknown is finally revealed, bit by bit, we will be shocked and horrified. This is what keeps me up at night.

ritter

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #188 on: October 15, 2013, 06:23:16 PM »
We don't know what we don't know and when the unknown is finally revealed, bit by bit, we will be shocked and horrified. This is what keeps me up at night.

At least you're not alone. It makes me feel better knowing that there are others that share my fears and concerns. Not that it makes one bit of difference on the outcome, though!

sg_smith

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #189 on: October 18, 2013, 12:08:12 AM »
Early bushfires hit NSW.  Sydney is surrounded by fires.  I was there more than 10 years ago when something similar happen but that was in Feb/March not October.

Meanwhile here in Hobart it is wet and cold still, week after week.  It will get warmer and more settled next week after the Hobart show.  Every one agrees on that, traditionally the show weather is not so good then after the show it immediately improves (:

ggelsrinc

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #190 on: October 18, 2013, 04:06:21 AM »
Early bushfires hit NSW.  Sydney is surrounded by fires.  I was there more than 10 years ago when something similar happen but that was in Feb/March not October.

Meanwhile here in Hobart it is wet and cold still, week after week.  It will get warmer and more settled next week after the Hobart show.  Every one agrees on that, traditionally the show weather is not so good then after the show it immediately improves (:

Have they ever considered having the Hobart show earlier or having more Hobart shows? It isn't like it would hurt anything, would it?

mati

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #191 on: October 18, 2013, 07:20:17 PM »
The range of plants and animals in north america are slowly moving north:

1. Opposums have appeared in Ontario!
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2012/03/12/opossums_spreading_across_gta.html
2. Grey Jay populations in Algonquin Park declining as bird breeding range moves north
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090225182833.htm
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/society-eco/bird-ranges.html


and so it goes

Laurent

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #192 on: October 21, 2013, 12:45:14 PM »
NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell has declared a state of emergency ahead of warnings predicting mass evacuations and severe weather conditions over the next few days.
http://www.2dayfm.com.au/newsfeed/2013/10/sydney-prepares-for-firestorm/

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #193 on: October 26, 2013, 11:59:50 PM »
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/25/climate-council-clear-link-bushfires

Climate Council finds 'clear link' between bushfires and climate change

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There is a “clear link” between climate change and bushfires, with the current New South Wales fires influenced by a rising frequency of hot, dry days, according to the climate body that had its funding withdrawn by the Coalition government.

The Climate Council’s findings offered a rebuke to Tony Abbott’s assertion that there was no correlation between climate change and the NSW fires, which the prime minister renewed on Friday when he dismissed claims of a link as "complete hogwash".

Asked by the News Corporation columnist Andrew Bolt about the "insanity" of the reaction to the fires by the "media and outside" in connecting the fires to global warming, Abbott said: "I suppose, you might say, that they are desperate to find anything that they think might pass as ammunition for their cause.”

The Climate Council comprises an independent group of scientists and businesspeople established from the ashes of the Climate Commission, which was abolished by the government in September.

In interim findings from a 25-page report on bushfire risks due to be released in November, the Climate Council said long-term drying trends were creating conditions ideal for fire outbreaks. The council’s report explicitly links the NSW fires to climate change.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Anonymouse

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #194 on: November 03, 2013, 08:47:14 AM »
Hey Shared Humanity,
(not discounting the conditions in Oz)
I read that same report about the moose.  My dad grew up in northern Minnesota (US) and when I told him about this, he was kinda "meh."  He watches the mainstream network news and thinks that the changes in the jet stream just means that the "winters will be colder".  He doesn't really get it or care when I try to explain why the issue of climate change is so (increasingly) urgent.

Anonymouse

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #195 on: November 08, 2013, 07:08:20 AM »
From Jeff Masters: "..Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history..."

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

ritter

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #196 on: November 08, 2013, 05:26:44 PM »
From Jeff Masters: "..Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history..."

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
Also from the link:
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Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history.

More broken records.

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #197 on: November 10, 2013, 03:06:25 PM »
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On Leyte, regional police chief Elmer Soria said the provincial governor had told him there were about 10,000 deaths there, primarily from drowning and collapsed buildings.

As I read it, that's an estimate of 10,000 just from that one island!

http://world.time.com/2013/11/09/philippine-typhoon-death-toll-could-reach-10000/
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Anonymouse

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #198 on: November 11, 2013, 09:11:47 AM »
*shaking head sadly* [wondering what in the world to do]  The destruction in the Philippines is... just...
The future.   You scientists have a bigger handle than I do, but this is the type of event that I imagined in my scaredy-cat non-scientist layman imagination when I started reading about this CC stuff in the early 90's.  What next?
« Last Edit: November 11, 2013, 09:21:09 AM by Anonymouse »

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #199 on: November 11, 2013, 01:15:31 PM »
Worlds of pain  there now:

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/11/world/asia/typhoon-haiyan/

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Thousands of houses have been obliterated. Many areas are still cut off from transport, communications and power. Some officials say that as many as 10,000 people may have been killed.

"There are too many people dead," said Richard Gordon, chairman of the Philippine Red Cross. "We have bodies in the water, bodies on the bridges, bodies on the side of the road."

And amid the carnage, hundreds of thousands of survivors are trying to cope with a lack of water, food, shelter and medicine. Aid workers and government officials are battling to get emergency supplies to hard hit areas, which have been cut off by fallen trees and power lines.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/11/21399516-health-crisis-erupts-in-philippines-following-deadly-typhoon-haiyan

Health crisis erupts in Philippines following deadly Typhoon Haiyan

"What next?"?

Expect even more extreme storms, though not necessarily more frequent ones (the jury seems to be still out on that one).

CC tried to get the latest from the relevant scientists here, though some of that seems to err on the side of 'scientific reticence' there to me.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/super-typhoon-haiyan-a-hint-of-whats-to-come-16724

The one graph presented there shows an expected clear increase everywhere in the precipitation rate of cyclones everywhere. It also sees a distinct but not as pronounced increase in intensity in all but two of the areas surveyed. So I guess that's the best estimate of "what's next."
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."