The U.S. National Weather Service estimates the chances of an American's home being destroyed by a tornado as 1 in 10 million.

On May 3, 1999 a home in Moore, Oklahoma was destroyed by an F4 tornado. The owner subsequently rebuilt on the same site.

On May 20, 2013 that rebuilt home was destroyed by an (est'd) EF4 tornado.

track-vs-1999.png[/img]

The chances of this occurring randomly? 1 in 100 Trillion. (1 : 10^{14})

That's not just 'weird'. That's suspicious.

First of all 1 in 10 million seems a bit low to me. That would suggest only 10 homes are destroyed each year. Annual average losses are $5 billion, although much of that is probably minor property damage. But I would have guessed than the number of homes 'destroyed' would be on the order of 100-1,000 per year. Let's say 100. Probably 10X that in Oklahoma, which would be 1 in 100,000 homes per year.

Over a 60 year period, this would be 60 in 100,000. The probability of being hit twice would be 3,600 in 10,000,000,000 or ~4 in 10,000,000.

The probability of not being hit twice in Oklahoma in that time period is 9,999,996 in 10,000,000.

If there are 2 million homes in Oklahoma, the probability that none of them being hit twice during that time period is (9,999,996/10,000,000)^2,000,000 or .45.

**This means that the probability that over 60 years the probability of at least one house being hit twice in Oklahoma is 55%. **Of course these are a lot of rough estimates, and the population of Oklahoma was no where near what it is today 60 years ago. But this very rough estimate should give you some idea of the order of magnitude of this probability.