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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 560191 times)

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2550 on: January 31, 2019, 02:03:25 PM »
That's quite a tale, sidd. Thanks.

I dunno where you are, but here in Minnesota the temperatures we are experiencing now are mostly not unprecedented, but they were never very common...maybe once or twice a decade on average. Also, some people are remembering earlier much lower wind chills, but the formula for calculating those changed some time ago, so those are not reliable.

Climbing into the mere single digits below zero F later today will feel like a heat wave after what we've been through!
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TerryM

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2551 on: January 31, 2019, 03:11:16 PM »
Here in SW Ontario it feels as cold as anything I remember from my youth.


That said, this is only the 3'd time the river has frozen over since I returned in 2004. The annual break up of ice on the river here had been celebrated since the early 1800's - before any bridges crossed the Grand.


Local merchants rigged a stopwatch to a trigger embedded in the ice, and everyone sent their guess as to the exact second of the breakup through the newspaper. The prizes were highly sought after, and there was intense rivalry, particularly among those suffering from excessive testosterone secretions.


I was away for just over 40 years. When I returned the newspaper was long gone, and only a few of the most sedentary grey-beards showed a glimmer of recollection when reminded of those contests.


The point is that while today's weather may well set an all time record cold, the multi-year annual freeze, as recorded by river ice, indicates water temperatures warmer than had been the norm for at least 200 years.


Increasingly warm winters punctuated by extreme cold snaps.
Terry

Klondike Kat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2552 on: January 31, 2019, 03:48:20 PM »
Jumping back in our discussion (sorry, it took a while to compile this due to the way the data was arranged), here is the data on number of days during the winter in Sault Ste Marie, ON Canada when the temperature was -20C or lower.

Sault Ste. Marie (https://goo.gl/maps/iiLUEyquewS2) is in Eastern North America.

Note that between 1962 and 2012 the linear mean declined by a total of ~12 days, and about the same amount when the data is isolated between 1989 and 2012. After the 1998 super el niño, the mimima seem to have reached a new phase. However, a new maximum occurs in 2014, followed by another of the highest years (in terms of N) in 2015.

This seems to provide some evidence that in Eastern North America a) a significant decline in extreme cold days (using an arbitrary definition of -20C for extreme cold) has occurred due to climate change, but that b) the maximum for N may now be increasing or returning to previous levels, even while the minima numbers have remained close to constant since 1998.

Looking at your graph, the variability has not changed much over time.  As with any conclusion based on limited data, a few points may present a false trend.  Still, it looks as if the data has leveled out since 1998.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2553 on: January 31, 2019, 03:55:44 PM »
Another brutally cold morning in Chicago (-22 Freedom Degrees) with a high around zero today although the strong winds have died down so it is not as dangerous out there as yesterday.

Forecast for the weekend?

Saturday  41F
Sunday    46F
Monday   52F and rainy

Talk about weird weather...a swing of 74 degrees in 5 days!
« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 08:57:34 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2554 on: January 31, 2019, 03:58:50 PM »
My point?

Two days of brutal cold, even record breaking brutal cold, means nothing more than 2 days of record breaking brutal cold. Anyone here who would suggest otherwise should be working for Hair Furor in the White House.

wdmn

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2555 on: January 31, 2019, 04:01:32 PM »
Jumping back in our discussion (sorry, it took a while to compile this due to the way the data was arranged), here is the data on number of days during the winter in Sault Ste Marie, ON Canada when the temperature was -20C or lower.

Sault Ste. Marie (https://goo.gl/maps/iiLUEyquewS2) is in Eastern North America.

Note that between 1962 and 2012 the linear mean declined by a total of ~12 days, and about the same amount when the data is isolated between 1989 and 2012. After the 1998 super el niño, the mimima seem to have reached a new phase. However, a new maximum occurs in 2014, followed by another of the highest years (in terms of N) in 2015.

This seems to provide some evidence that in Eastern North America a) a significant decline in extreme cold days (using an arbitrary definition of -20C for extreme cold) has occurred due to climate change, but that b) the maximum for N may now be increasing or returning to previous levels, even while the minima numbers have remained close to constant since 1998.

Looking at your graph, the variability has not changed much over time.  As with any conclusion based on limited data, a few points may present a false trend.  Still, it looks as if the data has leveled out since 1998.

As El Cid said, I see 3 clear phases. Within the 4 years from 2010 to 2014 the difference between minimum and maximum is greater than the difference between minimum and maximum in the 35 years from 1962 - 1997*, and by quite a bit (a difference in amplitude of 46 vs. 33). So the variability is not consistent.

What you're doing Klondike Kat is viewing this graph as something isolated, floating on its own rather than as one piece nested within a context of data and evidence. I would expect another large spike in N this year, again in a year when this polar vortex splitting is known to have occurred.

*(This period could be extended up until 2013, or 51 years).

Bernard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2556 on: January 31, 2019, 07:28:03 PM »
Increasingly warm winters punctuated by extreme cold snaps.
Terry

To try and convince those who won't buy this argument and consider this too counter-intuitive, being immune to figures, stats, mean values and so on, in short, those blockheads hermetic to basic science, maybe comparison with violent hailstorms could help. The most stubborn Texan redneck will have to admit that hail, akin to the ice cubes in his jumbo fridge, are produced by storms generated by hellish warmth, and the hotter the summer, the bigger the hailstones will grow. And au passage he will also admit that to make cold his fridge has to warm the outside. Two lessons for the price of one, hopefully.

magnamentis

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2557 on: January 31, 2019, 08:14:55 PM »
so "the man is back" since a few days only and i was really wondering how long it takes until bickering based on ego-driven posts will start.

for those who are not aware, we're talking remotely and/or directly about re-glacification, new cold phase in the current ice-age and cooling through perforation of the greenland ice-shield.

so after the freezing threads and the snow cover threads this time the focus has been laid on weird weather thread.

thing is that latest once is quoting some of the nonsense and/or whining one can see it, no matter all the efforts to avoid it.

yeah, deniars are now those who don't believe in the above mentioned but think that the globe is still warming.

no matter what weather makes and how local temps peak on each end of the scale, once average temps will be >5C above pre-industrial, even the coldest spots in winter will see higher average temps measured over 12 months or several years. period IMO

all the rest is just noise and babble to no avail or benefit other for some to stick out by making extreme statements.
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TerryM

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2558 on: January 31, 2019, 08:30:18 PM »
Increasingly warm winters punctuated by extreme cold snaps.
Terry

To try and convince those who won't buy this argument and consider this too counter-intuitive, being immune to figures, stats, mean values and so on, in short, those blockheads hermetic to basic science, maybe comparison with violent hailstorms could help. The most stubborn Texan redneck will have to admit that hail, akin to the ice cubes in his jumbo fridge, are produced by storms generated by hellish warmth, and the hotter the summer, the bigger the hailstones will grow. And au passage he will also admit that to make cold his fridge has to warm the outside. Two lessons for the price of one, hopefully.
Very nicely stated!


Ramen
Terry

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2559 on: January 31, 2019, 08:39:29 PM »
so "the man is back" since a few days only and i was really wondering how long it takes until bickering based on ego-driven posts will start.

for those who are not aware, we're talking remotely and/or directly about re-glacification, new cold phase in the current ice-age and cooling through perforation of the greenland ice-shield.

so after the freezing threads and the snow cover threads this time the focus has been laid on weird weather thread.

thing is that latest once is quoting some of the nonsense and/or whining one can see it, no matter all the efforts to avoid it.

yeah, deniars are now those who don't believe in the above mentioned but think that the globe is still warming.

no matter what weather makes and how local temps peak on each end of the scale, once average temps will be >5C above pre-industrial, even the coldest spots in winter will see higher average temps measured over 12 months or several years. period IMO

all the rest is just noise and babble to no avail or benefit other for some to stick out by making extreme statements.
The globe IS still warming.

sidd

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2560 on: January 31, 2019, 09:06:41 PM »
Did I say this was a walk in the park ? Not any more, now we got an emergency:

https://fox59.com/2019/01/30/its-so-cold-in-the-parts-of-the-midwest-they-cant-deliver-beer/

sidd

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2561 on: February 01, 2019, 12:32:46 AM »

oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2562 on: February 01, 2019, 03:55:46 AM »
-55 F wind chill here in Minneapolis (-48 C). Most everything is shut down, including postal service. But I'm going out in a few hours to make tons of soup for the homeless and anyone else who wants it. Probably minestrone. Anybody have good recipes?
Bless you wili.
And thanks to all of those living under the cold spell for the local anecdotal updates.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2563 on: February 01, 2019, 08:26:08 AM »
Worth mentioning that Cotton, Minnesota got to -48.9 C min (-56 F) on 31st Jan. This is just 4F off the Minnesota record of -60 F set at Tower in 1996.

This was the second time Cotton hit -56 F rounded. Previous Sunday also recorded same min. Exact mins were -55.9 F on 31st and -56.4 min on 27th.

www.twincities.com/2019/01/31/cold-cotton-hits-minus-56-below-minnesota-record/amp/

pikaia

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2564 on: February 03, 2019, 04:16:15 PM »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2565 on: February 03, 2019, 05:00:11 PM »
Currently 44F in Chicago. Quite a difference from the low of -26F on Thursday. Temperatures will remain above 40F through tomorrow afternoon with light rain forecast over the next 36 hours. We will then have more seasonal weather over the next couple of weeks with highs around freezing.

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2566 on: February 03, 2019, 08:40:06 PM »
Australia Weather: Townsville Warned as Floodgates Open 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-47100658

Quote
Officials in the Australian city of Townsville are deliberately flooding several neighbourhoods after record rainfall that has swollen a dam beyond capacity.

Residents in and around the north-eastern city have been warned of "risk to life" and "unprecedented flooding" that could inundate up to 20,000 homes.


People have been told to seek shelter on higher ground.

Townsville has received more than a metre (3.3ft) of rain in just a week.

That is more than 20 times the average for the time of year - beating the previous record set in 1998, in what became known as the Night of Noah.

...  The Townsville Bulletin newspaper said low-lying properties were being flooded, and troops on boats were searching for residents in need of help.

Cars and livestock have already been swept away around the coastal city in the state of Queensland.

https://twitter.com/madvoice/status/1092023384941027328



 Meanwhile, parts of southern Australia are in the grip of a severe drought.

January was the hottest month on record for Australia as a whole, with the southern city of Adelaide breaking its own records twice in the month, first reaching 47.7C and then 49.5C
« Last Edit: February 03, 2019, 08:46:00 PM by vox_mundi »
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2567 on: February 07, 2019, 01:46:40 AM »
I decided to post this reply here (and not go O/T from the global temp thread).

So far 2019 has set 35 records for heat and 2 for cold

Quote
Kulgera (Australia) max. 47
Griffith (Australia) max. 46.4
Albury (Australia) max. 45.3
Woolbrook (Australia) max. 38.7
Cooma (Australia) max. 39.5
Cootamundra (Australia) max. 43.6
Eucla (Australia) max. 48.6
Christmas Island Aero (Australia) max. 31.6
Tarcoola (Australia) max. 49.1
Ceduna (Australia) max. 48.6
Cleve (Australia) max. 46.7
Adelaide (Australia) max. 47.7
Adelaide Airport (Australia) max. 45.8
Port Lincoln Airport (Australia) max. 48.3
Port Augusta (Australia) max. 49.5
Clare (Australia) max. 44.9
Snowtown (Australia) max. 47.3
Parafield (Australia) max. 47.7
Edinburgh (Australia) max. 47.5
Roseworthy (Australia) max. 48.3
Nuriootpa (Australia) max. 46
Kuitpo (Australia) max. 44
Strathalbyn (Australia) max. 46.7
Deniliquin (Australia) max. 47.2
Swan Hill (Australia) max. 47.5
Kerang (Australia) max. 47
Kyabram (Australia) max. 47.1
Sale (Australia) max. 45.5
Young (Australia) max. 43.5
Pointe des Trois-Bassins (Reunion Islands, France) max. 37
Cilaos (Reunion Islands, France) max. 31.2
Gobabis (Namibia) max. 41.7
Santiago (Chile) max. 38.3
Santiago Airport (Chile) max. 39.3
Tobalaba (Chile) max. 37.4

Record low temperatures in 2019

Rockford (Illinois, US) min. -35
Moline (Illinois, US) min. -36.1
Link >> https://www.newscientist.com/article/2192369-so-far-2019-has-set-35-records-for-heat-and-2-for-cold/

Record highs or lows are often problematic. Especially so with temperature recording at airports. New developments runways, hangars etc often require the screen/sensor has to be moved.

So I decided to have a look back at the long record at Rockford (Illinois). Depending on where you look you will hear that Rockford has records back to the 19th century. There were several gaps in the recording.

Using the historical observing metadata at NOAA I came across two COOP entries for Rockford. The first entry recalls all the various locations (I make it 6) that temperatures were recorded in Rockford from 19th century until summer 1957.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/homr/#ncdcstnid=20005980&tab=LOCATIONS

All these 6 locations were well within the current city bounds. See map 1

Then the big move occurred and from 1957 onwards temperature recording at Rockford was made at the airport which is located in rolling farmland, sparsely wooded approx. 4 miles south of downtown Rockford. See map 2

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/homr/#ncdcstnid=20005977&tab=LOCATIONS

The airport is in more open country and I would expect it to experience greater extremes then the old city locations in map 1.

However within the airport the temperature siting has changed many times. Berkely Earth lists five station moves since 1957 within the grounds of the airport. The biggest move though happened after 1995, Prior to that the site was quite near the current terminal building and there was some obstruction by trees and hangars. Then the siting was changed further to the SE away from most buildings.

So really it has only been in the same location since 2004.

The coldest in over 100 years of temperature recording rings a bit hollow given that there have been so many changes in Rockford. The old city centre locations were probably warmer locations than the current one and also crucially when the cold spells of the 1980s occurred, the screen was located much nearer buildings which undoubtedly kept it warmer than the current site.

sidd

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2568 on: February 07, 2019, 08:15:57 AM »
Consequences of cold snap in midwest: different take

One measurement of severity? no, that's not the word ... cold ? no ... that's not it .... freeze ? no ... hard freeze ? getting closer ...

--
    22% in Minnesota
    12% in Wisconsin
    9% in Illinois and Indiana
    7% in Iowa
    6% in Ohio, North Dakota, and Nebraska
    2% in South Dakota and Missouri

The only state that didn't see a jump was Michigan, ...
--

those Michigan folk are weird.

Nyhoo, the words after Michigan are "where porn viewing was DOWN 2%."

http://97x.com/pornhub-traffic-spiked-in-midwest-during-polar-vortex/

sidd

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2569 on: February 07, 2019, 05:19:07 PM »
2 days of lows below -20 F late last week followed by 50 F weather. Now nearly 50 F with heavy rains, flood warnings and fog advisory and a low of 7 F tonight. Chicago is having some very weird weather.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2570 on: February 07, 2019, 07:00:03 PM »
Niall,

Be careful about your thermometer siting argument.  You are beginning to sound like Anthony Watts.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2571 on: February 07, 2019, 07:20:18 PM »
At least six dead in Brazil after powerful storm lashes Rio de Janeiro
Quote
RIO DE JANEIRO, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil's second-largest city, awoke to scenes of chaos on Thursday after thrashing wind and rain whipped through neighborhoods, felling trees, flooding streets and sweeping away buses in a storm that killed at least six people.

Some of Rio's most iconic neighborhoods, including tourist hot spots like Ipanema and Copacabana, were battered by winds of up to 110 kilometers per hour (68 mph) on Wednesday night, with precarious hillside favelas hit by mudslides that closed roads.
...
The storm came just days after Rio experienced its hottest January in 97 years, with temperatures rising as high as 42 degrees Celsius (107.6 degrees Fahrenheit). ...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/at-least-six-dead-in-brazil-after-powerful-storm-lashes-rio-de-janeiro-20190207-00960
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gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2572 on: February 07, 2019, 09:55:12 PM »
Another record high temperature in a surprising place.

https://www.wunderground.com/news/news/weather/news/2019-02-07-90-degrees-southern-tip-south-america-southern-hemisphere-hottest

Southern Tip of South America Hits 90 Degrees, Sets Record For the Southernmost Hottest Temperature
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2573 on: February 08, 2019, 01:13:48 AM »
Niall,

Be careful about your thermometer siting argument.  You are beginning to sound like Anthony Watts.

Godforbid  :)

I do agree with him of the need to have a robust network of weather stations. But that's about the end of it. For example I understand the need for adjustments to account for changes to a site and/or instrumentation over time. Deniers like Watts get agitated when adjustments are mentioned. They have highlighted the changes and yet at the same time jump up an down whenever anyone mentions adjustments. They can be very manipulative with data, and use it to further their own ends.

I applaud the establishment of USCRN which long term will be the gold standard climate reference in the U.S.

What I don't like is National Meteorological Agencies frequently changing the siting of their stations. Unfortunately this does happen from time to time, usually around the airports. I'd say a lot of people are not aware of this.

Ideally you would like your temperature stations to stay the same - so when extreme cold or heat arrives you can say yes it's the warmest since the station started etc. What made me curious about Rockford cold record was why other Illinois stations didn't break record and yet Rockford seems to have broken a very long term cold record by over 2 degrees C. But I've gone through that one  already.

The NWS Chicago also mention a new cold record at Barrington (Ill). Records show that there has been a station at Barrington since 1962 but again there have been many station moves. In 1967 (0.6miles) and 1971 (1.7miles) and 1987 (3miles). The 1987 move was to a lovely site in the Crabtree Nature Center. A nice green area as the older sites had become too industrial. So it would be correct to say it has been coldest in Barrington since 1987. This also backs up Chicago O'Hare - coldest since the 1980s.

I come across this thing quite a lot. News agencies saying coldest ever or warmest in 100 years. But really only applies to how long the site was in existence.

Why do I care about this ?

1) It's what I do. I am a climatological observer. I strive to maintain good standards

2) I don't like fake/imprecise news. It can often be used and manipulated by nefarious people.

This is turning into a longish post and I haven't mentioned Australia. We have seen a lot of heat records from Australia already this year but how do these compare with the standard method of recording temperature by electronic sensors?

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology have for some reason gone out on a limb with their recording of temperature extremes. Unlike most other countries I know, they log the highest 1 second spot temperatures as being the maximum. The correct way should be to take the average of the readings over 1 minute. Reason for taking the 1 minute average is because this correlates closely with the old mercury max readings. And for record purposes we should strive to maintain as close as possible to the historical way. Or else you should correctly say highest since this method was first employed (1st Nov 1996).

BTW this criticism of the Australian BOM only applies to temperature extremes. I have no reason to suspect that the daily, monthly and annual mean temperatures are much different now to the historical liquid-in-glass method.
 
« Last Edit: February 08, 2019, 01:23:42 AM by Niall Dollard »

Juan C. García

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2574 on: February 08, 2019, 02:37:51 AM »
Hurricanes are strengthening faster in the Atlantic, and climate change is a big reason why, scientists say
Quote
Rapid intensification is generally measured by comparing the strength of a hurricane over a 24-hour period. A change in storm wind speed of greater than 35 mph in 24 hours is generally the cutoff.
By this measure, the five most destructive Atlantic storms of the past two years all went through rapid intensification:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/02/07/hurricanes-are-strengthening-faster-atlantic-climate-change-is-big-reason-why-scientists-say/?utm_term=.5ffb6aeb8040&wpisrc=al_environment__alert-hse&wpmk=1
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2575 on: February 08, 2019, 04:21:55 AM »
Regarding the issues around meteorological stations moving, I worked on a climate adaptation plan for our community a few years back. Part of our work involved climate projections. We wanted to start with base lines. This proved really problematic because the station moved multiple times, and is now 14km from the original location, in a narrow valley perpendicular to the original wide open location. The new location is prone to summer frosts, colder cold snaps, much lower winds and more precipitation. So we were really handicapped. The meteorological records did not line up with records else where- ya know, the ones that show a warming in the early 20th century, cooling until the 60's and warming since then. The best record we found, which turned out to be a perfect match for global trends, was the dates of the ice break up on the river, which has been recorded annually in exactly the same way since the 1890s because locals bet on the exact time of breakup.

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2576 on: February 08, 2019, 06:55:46 PM »
'Hundreds of Thousands' of Cattle Feared Dead After Australia Floods
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-hundreds-thousands-cattle-dead-australia.html

Hundreds of thousands of cattle weakened from a severe drought are feared to have died in record-breaking floods in northeastern Australia, authorities said Friday, as they stepped up efforts to feed surviving livestock.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk Friday spoke of seeing a "sea of dead cattle" when she toured one region on Thursday.

"To see the cattle spread across these yards, not moving, it made you feel sick in the stomach," she told national broadcaster ABC.

"This will be heartbreaking to these communities that have been experiencing years of drought, only to see that turn into a torrential inundation which threatens now their very livelihoods in the complete other direction."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Klondike Kat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2577 on: February 08, 2019, 07:45:06 PM »
Regarding the issues around meteorological stations moving, I worked on a climate adaptation plan for our community a few years back. Part of our work involved climate projections. We wanted to start with base lines. This proved really problematic because the station moved multiple times, and is now 14km from the original location, in a narrow valley perpendicular to the original wide open location. The new location is prone to summer frosts, colder cold snaps, much lower winds and more precipitation. So we were really handicapped. The meteorological records did not line up with records else where- ya know, the ones that show a warming in the early 20th century, cooling until the 60's and warming since then. The best record we found, which turned out to be a perfect match for global trends, was the dates of the ice break up on the river, which has been recorded annually in exactly the same way since the 1890s because locals bet on the exact time of breakup.

Since what is of utmost concern with temperature changes is the resulting consequences, I think these types of observations are more important.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2578 on: February 09, 2019, 12:58:07 PM »
Since the start of the recent Global temp surge we have seen the likes of Wattsy , and his trolls, again jump onto UHI and the impacts on measuring stations.

Their pay masters will know full well where we are headed over the coming decade ( UK Met Office recently put out a statement saying they expect 1.5C above pre industrial to be seen in a Nino spike before 2023) and so must insist on a last ditch push to obfuscate/confuse as many as possible until the first of the 'cascades' become undeniable ( be that Antarctic collapse from Thwaites/P.I.G. or methane outputs from the north)
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2579 on: February 09, 2019, 04:43:45 PM »
Seattle Almost Reached Its Yearly Amount of Snowfall In a Day
https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/09/us/seattle-snow-weather-saturday-wxc/index.html

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport had 6.4 inches of snow Friday, according to the National Weather Service. It's the second most snow recorded in the area in a day for the past 20 years, and more is still to come.

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1094144414249832451

By 4 a.m. PT Saturday, the airport had 7.2 inches of snow, and it was still falling.
It's only the fourth time the area has seen 6 inches of snow since 1991. Seattle averages 6.8 inches of snow over the course of an entire year.


https://twitter.com/MikeTheSnowbean/status/1093916272985657344



Seattle has 39 plows, WSDOT has about 100 for a five-county region and King County has 28, although all the agencies are also using road graders, front loaders and other trucks and machinery to chip in.

“Many folks ask why there aren’t more snow plows in our region,” King County Executive Dow Constantine tweeted. “The answer is: Because we don’t get much snow!”

... The first thing to remember is that unless you live on a major thoroughfare, your street is not going to be plowed. That means, essentially, that if a bus route does not run on your street, it’s not getting plowed.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2580 on: February 09, 2019, 05:57:52 PM »
U.S.:  Atlanta, Georgia

Guy Walton: "It's official. In my hometown of Atlanta today's maximum temperature was the earliest reading of 80F [26.7°C] in recorded history. The prior earliest reading of 80F for a year was set on 2/15/1989.”
https://twitter.com/climateguyw/status/1093632027306409984
Data image at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2581 on: February 09, 2019, 06:40:19 PM »
U.S.:  Atlanta, Georgia

Guy Walton: "It's official. In my hometown of Atlanta today's maximum temperature was the earliest reading of 80F [26.7°C] in recorded history. The prior earliest reading of 80F for a year was set on 2/15/1989.”
https://twitter.com/climateguyw/status/1093632027306409984
Data image at the link.

Are you implying that we are finally warmer than 1989?

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2582 on: February 09, 2019, 07:00:26 PM »
“Many folks ask why there aren’t more snow plows in our region,” King County Executive Dow Constantine tweeted. “The answer is: Because we don’t get much snow!”

It would be more useful if the persons asking this question were instead to ask "Why don't I have a snow shovel?"

interstitial

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2583 on: February 09, 2019, 08:44:16 PM »
I live a bit south of Seattle and it is warm here compared to the rest of the country. Most of the time we get an inch or two and it doesn't even stick to the road. They still close the schools. It's hilarious if you have ever lived somewhere with snow. The day time highs are usually enough to melt it the next day as well. So every year we have snow someone is complaining we don't have enough snow plows. Every year we don't have snow someone complains about why we wasted money on snow plows because they are just sitting around and rusting. I find it comical.

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2584 on: February 10, 2019, 07:24:30 AM »
Extreme Rainfall has Led to Deadly Floods in Northern Chile
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-47183451/extreme-rainfall-has-led-to-deadly-floods-in-northern-chile

Heavy rains have wreaked havoc in northern Chile causing rivers to overflow and forcing residents from their flooded homes.

Extreme rainfall in the Andes claimed several lives and destroyed homes and roads.

In the Atacama Desert, normally one of the driest places on Earth, a 60m (196ft) waterfall that had run dry for 10 years has been reactivated.

----------------------------

The Southern Hemisphere is Scorching: Unprecedented Heat in Chile, Argentina and Australia   
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/weather/2019/02/07/southern-hemisphere-is-scorching-all-time-record-heat-set-chile-argentina-australia/



... Porvenir, Chile’s, record high of 90.5 degrees on Monday is perhaps the most remarkable, given its southern latitude and proximity to the cooling waters of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

The city of barely 5,000 people sits at 53.3 degrees south. For perspective, that’s the same distance from the equator as Manchester, England. But while Manchester is landlocked and influenced by the Gulf Stream, Porvenir sits near the water on the Strait of Magellan — where water temperatures rarely exceed the upper 40s Fahrenheit. It’s just 700 miles from Antarctica.

... As for Chile, the unusual warmth in the “Gateway to the Antarctic” mirrors a similar event in Scandinavia last July, when Norway, Finland and Sweden all topped 90 degrees. Exceptional warmth even approached the Arctic Circle.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2019, 08:17:34 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bligh8

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2585 on: February 10, 2019, 02:32:22 PM »
I've some friends who are transiting the Beagle channel right now……2 days ago they said it was 92Deg.  Imagine, I'm sure they went out and purchased some expensive cold weather gear, turns out ..  shorts and flip flops would have worked as well.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2586 on: February 11, 2019, 11:53:51 PM »
Crazy weather with a record strong storm in Hawaii.

According to its Department of Land and Natural Resources, snow fell on Maui at the way down to 6,200 feet, which might be the lowest elevation Hawaii has ever observed snow.

‘Historic’ storm hurls huge waves and 191-mph winds at Hawaii; rare snow hits Maui
Quote
An extremely powerful winter storm is pulling away from Hawaii after unleashing damaging winds, massive waves, coastal flooding and snow in unusual places.

The storm, which the National Weather Service office in Honolulu described as “historic,” began pounding the islands Friday. Hawaii News Now reported a 66-year-old California man died in the rough surf off northwest Maui on Friday.

Forecasters “are calling this an unprecedented event and we concur that we rarely if ever have seen the combination of record high onshore waves, coupled with gale force winds,” said Sam Lemmo, administrator of Hawaii’s Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR).

The storm’s most extreme blow was generated on the Big Island’s towering peak of Mauna Kea, where a 191-mph wind gust blasted the mountain summit at 4:40 p.m. local time Sunday.

“That’s the strongest wind gust I’ve ever seen up there,” said Jon Jelsema, senior forecaster at the Weather Service office in Honolulu. “We tend to get a gust maybe to 150 mph once a winter or so, but never 191 mph.” ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/11/historic-storm-hurls-huge-waves-mph-winds-hawaii-rare-snow-hits-maui/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Lurk

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2588 on: February 13, 2019, 01:26:13 PM »
I think this is a first - The ground is on fire and it is proving very difficult to put out.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-02-13/why-is-the-ground-burning-on-an-outback-nt-cattle-station/10802676

May not be so unique out to 2050 - extended dry spell which has dried out the soils, there's no stock to sell to market so the stockyards are not in use, very very high extended temps and the decades of organic matter mixed with cattle urine that has seeped into the soil over time self-ignites from below.
Solving Climate Change means changing 'The System' because nothing changes when nothing changes.
Each one of us must consider our deepest values, proceed to act from this standpoint alone, ignoring other voices of illusion, false hope, and distraction that might threaten to throw us off course.

kassy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2589 on: February 13, 2019, 09:35:58 PM »
That´s great. It is something very different and noticeable.

The article quotes another similar event or two if you count the swamp:

Quote
"We are seeing more and more unusual expressions of fire in the landscape," he said.

"Here in Tasmania, we've seen incredible dry lightning storms igniting dried-out vegetation, in Victoria an old disused lake bed used for dairy farming catching on fire, in Tasmania drained swamps catching on fire.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2590 on: February 17, 2019, 09:56:30 PM »
Quote
NWS Nashville (@NWSNashville) 2/17/19, 3:35 PM
Not sure I have ever seen this before...the 7 day rainfall forecast for Mid TN has a minimum of 5-7" across the WHOLE state, and most of #Middle Tennessee in the 7-10" bulls eye. Now is the time to prepare! Clean storm drains and gutters. #rain #TADD
https://twitter.com/nwsnashville/status/1097233169282158592
Image below.

Quote
Tennessee Valley Authority (@TVAnews) 2/15/19, 3:00 PM
Up to 8" of rain is forecasted over the next week. We are releasing high flows from the large tributary dams to create as much storage as possible. All 9 dams on the main stem Tenn. River are operating at full turbine capacity and spilling excess water.
https://twitter.com/tvanews/status/1096499563408642049
Video clip at the link of Chickamauga Dam in Chattanooga in operation.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2591 on: February 18, 2019, 02:23:07 PM »
Very strange in Svalbard. At Longyearbyen today the temperature dipped below -24 C. This believe it or not, is the lowest temperature there for 4 years (Feb 2015).

Of course I am not seriously considering this to be weird weather. It is a far cry from Feb 1986 when it reached - 46 C. But more a comment on the present "norms" at Svalbard.

Two images today from the Borealis webcam at Longyearbyen. One looking NE (the moon) and the other looking south.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 04:27:15 PM by Niall Dollard »

Martin Gisser

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2592 on: February 19, 2019, 02:55:55 PM »
Bavaria 18.Feb.2019: Promise of rapidly warming early spring: The pond turtle is already out and sunbathing, while most of the pond is still frozen.

(Can't get closer without scaring her away. Perhaps nonnative pet animal, but likely a wild European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis). That would be sensational, as no sightings are officially reported for Bavaria and it is on the Red List, threatened by extinction.)

--------------
Hint for Green New Deal deniers: Note the neighbor's solar panels. This is standard in Bavaria. The place is ca. 1° north of Seattle.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 09:48:38 PM by Martin Gisser »
"The universe is irrelevant for all practical purposes, so better forget about being thrown into it." --Florifulgurator

Juan C. García

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2593 on: February 19, 2019, 11:09:32 PM »
Weird weather is not only on the ground:  ???
Quote
Flight reaches 801 mph as a furious jet stream packs record-breaking speeds

A Virgin Atlantic flight from Los Angeles to London peaked at a whopping 801 mph Monday evening 35,000 feet over Pennsylvania. “[N]ever ever seen this kind of tailwind in my life as a commercial pilot,” tweeted Peter James, a jet captain.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/19/flight-reaches-mph-furious-jet-stream-packs-record-breaking-speeds/?utm_term=.e4020a83c2d3
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 11:23:02 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.