Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 673021 times)

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2700 on: May 09, 2019, 07:17:04 PM »
And I expect to see GOP politicians throwing snowballs in Duluth and asking "Where's global warming?"
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1651
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 657
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2701 on: May 12, 2019, 11:20:01 PM »
Wettest 12 Months in U.S. History in April 2019
https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/05/wettest-12-months-in-u-s-history-in-april-2019-tremendous-rainfall-in-southern-texas-300-600-percent-of-normal-may.html

The 12 months ending in April 2019 were the wettest year-long period in U.S. records going back to 1895, according to the monthly U.S. climate summary issued Wednesday by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental   



Contiguous U.S. precipitation, 1895-2018. Annual precipitation across the contiguous U.S. has increased by about 7 percent over the past century. Blue bar shows the linear increase since 1895, while the red curve is a smoothed version of the year-to-year numbers in green. When averaged over running four-year periods (not shown), the past four years are the wettest on record for the contiguous U.S. Graphic: NOAA / NCEI 
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15699
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 466
  • Likes Given: 225
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2702 on: May 19, 2019, 04:22:53 PM »
More on the Wettest U.S. record, by Marshall Shepherd.

Why The U.S. Just Had Its Wettest 12-Month Stretch On Record
Quote
I am always careful when writing this type of piece because there is usually some contrarian hanging out on Twitter waiting to pounce on statements like “It’s the ______est year ever.” To avoid cliche trolling, it is important to use the word “on record.” With that out of the way, let’s discuss the U.S. experiencing its wettest 12-month stretch on record (in this case 1895 to 2019). Deke Arndt, a climatologist at NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), tweeted:

In case you missed it, the last 12 months (May ’18 through Apr ’19) is the wettest 12-month stretch on record for the US. A warmer world turns up the hydrology dial. When we are sent the bill for climate change, it comes in the context of our water.

Here are the meteorological and climatological reasons why this likely happened as well as further explanation of the last sentence of Arndt’s Tweet.

NOAA
The graphic [below] shows how abnormally it was in the U.S. from May 2018 to April 2019, particularly in the upper Midwest and the eastern U.S. By the way, if you live in the region shaded orange-brown, resist the urge to say “but it was drier where I live” so climate change is a hoax. Your local experience doesn’t define the global experience.

Before I discuss climate connections, it is important to discuss meteorological connections first. The inevitable “it has always rained” or “climate changes naturally” is lurking in someone’s head right now. My placeholder response is that grass on your lawn grows naturally too, but it you put fertilizer on the soil, it grows differently. I will provide a more robust discussion later in the article.

Several places, including Washington, D.C, broke records for wettest 12-month stretch. Jason Samenow wrote an outstanding article in the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang explaining the meteorological context for the period. I summarize Samenow’s key points:

• A persistently high-pressure pattern east of the U.S. transported Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico moisture into the eastern half of the country.
• Another persistently high-pressure pattern near Alaska allowed storm-tracks to be directed into the upper Midwest and East by the jet stream
• Possible jet stream modifications due to the emerging El Nino (warm central Pacific sea surface temperatures). ...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/05/19/why-the-u-s-just-had-its-wettest-12-month-stretch-on-record/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1651
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 657
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2703 on: May 20, 2019, 04:30:14 PM »
https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2019-05-20-high-risk-tornado-outbreak-flash-flooding-southern-plains-oklahoma

A tornado outbreak is expected to hit the southern Plains Monday, along with a major risk of flash flooding, both of which will pose a serious threat to life and property.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a rare "high risk" of severe weather from northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma where there is the greatest chance of strong and long-track tornadoes on Monday afternoon and evening. This highest threat level of severe weather was last issued by SPC just over two years ago on May 18, 2017.

Strong and long-track tornadoes are most likely from northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma on Monday and Monday evening, potentially including the Oklahoma City metro area. That said, a much larger corridor from West Texas northeastward across Oklahoma into Kansas, northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri will also have a risk of tornadoes. Destructive hail and damaging winds are likely to affect much of this same general region.



The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a high risk for its day one outlook. Around midday Monday, the SPC highlighted a small corridor from the northeastern part of the Texas Panhandle to central Oklahoma in a 45 percent probability of EF2-EF5 tornadoes to occur within 25 miles of a point. This is the first time a 45 percent tornado area has been issued by the SPC since April 14, 2012.


https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNorman
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 01:04:01 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15699
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 466
  • Likes Given: 225
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2704 on: May 21, 2019, 02:43:42 AM »
PDS = Particularly Dangerous Situation

Quote
NWS SPC (@NWSSPC)5/20/19, 2:37 PM
PDS Tornado Watch # 199 is coming for Oklahoma. This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%.

The only other watch like this was issued for Alabama on 27 April 2011.
https://twitter.com/nwsspc/status/1130542973060562946
Quote
Jason Furtado (@wxjay) 5/20/19, 7:39 PM
Getting more and more concerned about the flood threat for [Oklahoma City] tonight.
https://twitter.com/wxjay/status/1130618999199473664
Storm radar clip at the link.
Quote
Bill Karins (@BillKarins) 5/20/19, 7:32 PM
Pretty incredible convergence in Northern OK. 40 mph northerly winds and 50 miles south 25 mph southerly winds. Set up for extreme rainfall and flash flooding all night.
https://twitter.com/billkarins/status/1130617286841294848
Image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1651
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 657
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2705 on: May 21, 2019, 03:11:57 AM »
Quote from: Sigmetnow
Pretty incredible convergence in Northern OK. 40 mph northerly winds and 50 miles south 25 mph southerly winds. Set up for extreme rainfall and flash flooding all night.

Like the Battle of Winterfell



Quote
...  If you're south of that line you still have a tornado risk into the evening


https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0265&yr=2019
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNorman
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 03:17:58 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2706 on: May 26, 2019, 10:48:15 PM »
April was Second Hottest in NASA's 139 Year Record



Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1815
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 166
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2709 on: May 27, 2019, 01:35:12 PM »
Year round skiing in California?

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/rare-may-storm-impacts-california-following-word-of-ski-resort-staying-open-until-august/70008365
This illustrates "the theory that belongs to me" perfectly well, I guess Mammoth Mountain has sufficient elevation in spite of latitude to potentially be on the same path as *other regions* (ahem). I won't drag the thread off-topic, but this will be a very interesting situation to watch unfold as we head further into summer. LA Times says the only times this has happened before were 1995 (ending 8/13) and 2017 (ending 8/6).

https://www.latimes.com/travel/la-tr-travel-mammoth-mountaiin-ski-area-to-open-into-august-20190524-story.html

If we make it to 8/15 or 8/20, is that late enough in the year for snow to begin falling once more? The continuity of this state is what makes earlier snowfalls more likely given the extant reservoir, IMO, which is why it is "relatively" easy to get snow falling all year once you make it into August. If snow melts by June or July, it is difficult to get snow until late September, and it probably won't be sticking substantially until October. The extant base changes this equation, and sensible weather, substantially.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2710 on: May 27, 2019, 02:04:44 PM »
I expected you would show up when I posted this last night and admire your restraint in not derailing the thread.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2711 on: May 27, 2019, 02:12:34 PM »
If we make it to 8/15 or 8/20, is that late enough in the year for snow to begin falling once more? The continuity of this state is what makes earlier snowfalls more likely given the extant reservoir, IMO, which is why it is "relatively" easy to get snow falling all year once you make it into August. If snow melts by June or July, it is difficult to get snow until late September, and it probably won't be sticking substantially until October. The extant base changes this equation, and sensible weather, substantially.

Snowfall in the mountains of California has nothing to do with snow already on the ground and everything to do with the jet stream and fronts coming in from the Pacific. Paying closer attention to ENSO and the Blob in the North Pacific is far more informative than speculating about snow in the mountains.

These record setting snows are certainly weird weather and we can expect more of this as the planet warms. Record setting droughts and heat in the California mountains are evidence of the same.

Ktb

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 146
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2712 on: May 28, 2019, 06:13:36 AM »
Camping in Yosemite NP two nights ago, no snow forecast for mid latitudes. However, woke to 2+ inches and hiked back to my vehicle with significant snow fall continuing. I didn't measure but it was easily 6-8 inches towards the end, before my descent to a reasonable height.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2713 on: May 28, 2019, 03:05:58 PM »
If we make it to 8/15 or 8/20, is that late enough in the year for snow to begin falling once more? The continuity of this state is what makes earlier snowfalls more likely given the extant reservoir, IMO, which is why it is "relatively" easy to get snow falling all year once you make it into August. If snow melts by June or July, it is difficult to get snow until late September, and it probably won't be sticking substantially until October. The extant base changes this equation, and sensible weather, substantially.

Snowfall in the mountains of California has nothing to do with snow already on the ground and everything to do with the jet stream and fronts coming in from the Pacific. Paying closer attention to ENSO and the Blob in the North Pacific is far more informative than speculating about snow in the mountains.

These record setting snows are certainly weird weather and we can expect more of this as the planet warms. Record setting droughts and heat in the California mountains are evidence of the same.

Personally, I think this is just weather, and nothing to do with a warming planet.

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2714 on: May 28, 2019, 03:15:43 PM »
Personally, I think this is just weather, and nothing to do with a warming planet.

So, is this translating to 'a warming planet does not change the weather' in a reverse shot?

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6587
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1535
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2715 on: May 28, 2019, 04:07:46 PM »
Personally, I think this is just weather, and nothing to do with a warming planet.

So, is this translating to 'a warming planet does not change the weather' in a reverse shot?
Vive Le Quebec Glacé morphs into Vive Le California Glacé.

Nothing to do with shoving more energy into an already chaotic system.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2716 on: May 28, 2019, 04:11:42 PM »
Nothing to see here! Move along!


Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2717 on: May 28, 2019, 11:50:00 PM »
Tornadoes put America into uncharted territory:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/28/us/tornadoes-usa.html
« Last Edit: May 28, 2019, 11:58:20 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1504
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 513
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2718 on: May 29, 2019, 02:22:55 AM »
The Southeast has just sizzled in some of its hottest May weather on record, and it’s not over

Quote
Over the Memorial Day weekend, numerous cities from Florida to North Carolina established or tied record highs for May, including:
Gainesville, Fla.: 102 degrees (Monday)
Jacksonville, Fla: 100 degrees (Monday, tie)
Savannah, Ga.: 102 degrees (Sunday)
Augusta, Ga.: 101 degrees (Sunday)
Macon, Ga.: 100 degrees (Sunday)
Charleston, S.C.: 100 degrees (Sunday)
Wilmington, N.C.: 100 degrees (Sunday)
^ What seems weird to the Washingtonpost

Quote
On the cool side of the seesawing jet stream, the Southwest’s customary heat was held in check. On Monday, Phoenix’s temperatures rose to only 79 degrees, tying its coolest high temperature on record for May 27.
^ What seems weird to me, after several years of AGW  :-[  ;)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/28/southeast-has-just-sizzled-some-its-hottest-may-weather-record-its-not-over/?utm_term=.3157bc943edd
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2719 on: May 29, 2019, 02:30:52 PM »
The last post; heat in the southeast, combined with cold in the southwest, is the main cause of the previous post:  tornado outbreak.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
« Last Edit: May 30, 2019, 12:49:44 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2721 on: May 29, 2019, 07:20:53 PM »
The Southeast has just sizzled in some of its hottest May weather on record, and it’s not over

^ What seems weird to the Washingtonpost

Quote
On the cool side of the seesawing jet stream, the Southwest’s customary heat was held in check. On Monday, Phoenix’s temperatures rose to only 79 degrees, tying its coolest high temperature on record for May 27.
^ What seems weird to me, after several years of AGW  :-[  ;)


Neither seem weird to me. They are simply opposite sides of the same coin. Hottest, coldest, driest, wettest are the words we should grow comfortable reading as they are the result of climate change.

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 372
  • Likes Given: 261
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2722 on: May 29, 2019, 09:22:12 PM »

Rich

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2723 on: May 29, 2019, 09:37:49 PM »
Highs of ~47C forecast for Basra, Iraq in the coming week. Baghdad will hit the 45-46C range.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15699
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 466
  • Likes Given: 225
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2726 on: June 02, 2019, 01:16:10 AM »
"What has changed is we have fewer days per year with at least one tornado, but many more days with many tornadoes, up to 20 or 30. Situations that can produce a lot of tornadoes are happening more often, big days have gotten bigger. That's something we have pretty good confidence has occurred," he said.

Is Climate Change Fueling Tornadoes?
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/30052019/tornado-climate-change-connection-science-research-data
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.


Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2728 on: June 02, 2019, 03:44:25 AM »
Sounds like a round about way of saying the decreasing tornados tre d is climate related.

anthropocene

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2729 on: June 02, 2019, 09:29:07 AM »
Sounds like a round about way of saying the decreasing tornados tre d is climate related.

Please provide a quote in either of the two articles linked which mentions a decreasing tornado trend and where is it said that the decreasing trend is climate related?

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2730 on: June 03, 2019, 03:55:55 PM »
Sounds like a round about way of saying the decreasing tornados tre d is climate related.

Please provide a quote in either of the two articles linked which mentions a decreasing tornado trend and where is it said that the decreasing trend is climate related?

From the first:
"What we do know for the U.S. is that we see no evidence for a change in intensity of any kind,"

"Tornadoes need three things to form: warm, moist air near the ground, cold and dry air above, and horizontal winds generally getting stronger with height, and turning as you go up, Brooks said.  As the planet warms, Brooks said, "we expect the warm moist air at low levels will increase. But the changes in winds with height (wind shear), is projected to decrease on average."

From the second:
"Elsner’s research has shown that, though the annual number of tornadoes has remained steady, the number of tornadoes per outbreak has spiked."

From the National weather center:
There has been little trend in the frequency of the EF-1+ tornadoes.
The trend in F3+ tornadoes has been downward.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends


kinbote

  • New ice
  • Posts: 5
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2731 on: June 03, 2019, 08:48:33 PM »
Sounds like a round about way of saying the decreasing tornados tre d is climate related.

Please provide a quote in either of the two articles linked which mentions a decreasing tornado trend and where is it said that the decreasing trend is climate related?

From the National weather center:
There has been little trend in the frequency of the EF-1+ tornadoes.
The trend in F3+ tornadoes has been downward.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends


From the NOAA link:

"To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the United States, the total number of EF-1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF-3 to EF-5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed." ...
"The bar charts below indicate there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years."

I don't see where it states F3+ are trending downwards?

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2732 on: June 04, 2019, 12:36:36 AM »
Sounds like a round about way of saying the decreasing tornados tre d is climate related.

Please provide a quote in either of the two articles linked which mentions a decreasing tornado trend and where is it said that the decreasing trend is climate related?

From the National weather center:
There has been little trend in the frequency of the EF-1+ tornadoes.
The trend in F3+ tornadoes has been downward.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends


From the NOAA link:

"To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the United States, the total number of EF-1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF-3 to EF-5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed." ...
"The bar charts below indicate there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years."

I don't see where it states F3+ are trending downwards?

No, they just showed a graph where they are trending downward.

anthropocene

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2733 on: June 04, 2019, 01:15:53 AM »
Sounds like a round about way of saying the decreasing tornados tre d is climate related.

Please provide a quote in either of the two articles linked which mentions a decreasing tornado trend and where is it said that the decreasing trend is climate related?

From the National weather center:
There has been little trend in the frequency of the EF-1+ tornadoes.
The trend in F3+ tornadoes has been downward.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends


From the NOAA link:

"To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the United States, the total number of EF-1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF-3 to EF-5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed." ...
"The bar charts below indicate there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years."

I don't see where it states F3+ are trending downwards?

No, they just showed a graph where they are trending downward.

Kinbote: What Klondike Kat is doing is a 'gish gallop'. Don't fall for it by moving the discussion onto the new reference thrown into the discussion by KK. (Even though this itself appears to be false since the NOAA article itself states "The bar charts below indicate there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years." - sigh - squashing the inaccuracies is tiresome).

My original question came about after links to two articles were posted by Tom and Sigmetnow and Klondike Kat said: "Sounds like a round about way of saying the decreasing tornados tre d is climate related"  - my hypothesis was that this was not what those articles were saying. Dunno, maybe I missed something - so Klondike Kat was given an opportunity to quote where the two articles stated there was a downward trend and that downward trend was climate related. In the examples given by KK there is no statement to that effect. 

(If tornado region is moving east I guess there may be a reduction in tornadoes once the region moves into the Atlantic. But by then there may have been an F5 go straight up Pennsylvania Avenue. Some may say there'sbeen a metaphorical one of those already.  :o )


Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 806
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2734 on: June 04, 2019, 03:12:45 AM »
The reduction could well be due to tornadoes moving east.  The previous theory was that the decrease in persistent cold during the spring diminished the pressure gradient and led to less tornadic activity.  That is what I meant by round about.

pikaia

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 300
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 32

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15699
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 466
  • Likes Given: 225
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2736 on: June 05, 2019, 03:33:50 AM »
Record-Breaking Heat in Alaska Wreaks Havoc on Communities and Ecosystems
Quote
Across Alaska, March temperatures averaged 11 degrees Celsius above normal. The deviation was most extreme in the Arctic where, on March 30, thermometers rose almost 22 degrees Celsius above normal—to 3 degrees. That still sounds cold, but it was comparatively hot.

“It’s hard to characterize that anomaly, it’s just pretty darn remarkable for that part of the world,” says Rick Thoman, a climate specialist with the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy in Fairbanks. The state’s wave of warmth was part of a weeks-long weather pattern that shattered temperature records across our immense state, contributing to losses of both property and life. “When you have a slow grind of warming like that, lasting weeks or months, it affects people’s lives,” Thoman says.

On April 15, three people, including an 11-year-old girl, died after their snowmobiles plunged through thin ice on the Noatak River in far northwestern Alaska. Earlier in the winter, 700 kilometers south, on the lower Kuskokwim River, at least five people perished in separate incidents when their snowmobiles or four-wheelers broke through thin ice. There were close calls too, including the rescue of three miners who spent hours hopping between disintegrating ice floes in the Bering Sea near Nome. Farther south, people skating on the popular Portage Lake near Anchorage also fell through thin ice. Varying factors contributed to these and other mishaps, but abnormally thin ice was a common denominator. ...
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/record-breaking-heat-alaska-wreaks-havoc-communities-and-ecosystems-180972317/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1551
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 346
  • Likes Given: 62
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2373
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2738 on: June 05, 2019, 04:51:38 PM »
So we just wait until the weather gets really bad and then everyone will believe and we can do something about it. /s
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2739 on: June 05, 2019, 04:56:28 PM »
No '/s' Archimid, this is exactly what's going to happen.

The mainstream acts if only enough are affected.

You can try to convince Average Joe for years and he will ignore your warnings. The day his house swims away, he starts listening.

Forest Dweller

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 138
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2740 on: June 06, 2019, 04:18:40 PM »
Hurricane in Spain?

So i was just planning some field trips and checking what weather is headed towards Holland on Ventusky...and this popped up seemingly out of nowhere at Coruña, northern Spain.
Around 19:00 tonight wind gusts reach 150 kmph.
Category 2 strength is 155 kmph.....those people are lucky it is not turning inland but spinning off towards France/Wales.
Not far away i measured winds at 172 kmpu!
That must have to do with the topography, mountains/valleys i am sure.
I kind of have this fantasy to go camping around there because of the beautiful area.
I'm all over that now, can't imagine being in my cheap ass tent with the equivalent of a supercar at full speed driving through it  ;D

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 821
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 42
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2741 on: June 09, 2019, 10:37:21 PM »

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 821
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 42
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2742 on: June 09, 2019, 10:48:07 PM »
" In 2016 it was deep, but not like this" . And 2016 is not so long ago. I think many underestimate what climate change means. https://www.foxnews.com/us/arkansas-flooding-damage-assessed-rebuilding-focus

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1651
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 657
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2743 on: June 09, 2019, 11:20:17 PM »
Related to:
Hurricane in Spain?

So i was just planning some field trips and checking what weather is headed towards Holland on Ventusky...and this popped up seemingly out of nowhere at Coruña, northern Spain.
Around 19:00 tonight wind gusts reach 150 km/h.
Category 2 strength is 155 km/h.....those people are lucky it is not turning inland but spinning off towards France/Wales.
Not far away i measured winds at 172 km/h ...

Storm Miguel Kills Three After Overturning Rescue Ship Off French Coast 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48553351



A rescue boat has overturned in the Atlantic off the west coast of France leaving three crew dead, amid winds of up to 129 km/h (80 mph).

They were part of a crew of seven who had gone to the aid of another boat which had got into difficulty as Storm Miguel struck the area.

Winds of up to 147km/h hit northern Spain earlier, swirling around the Bay of Biscay and moving on to France.

... The strongest winds were recorded in the north-western Spanish region of Asturias late on Thursday while earlier there was damage to some buildings in Galicia.

As the storm hit land on the Ile d'Yeu in western France on Friday, forecasters recorded wind speeds of 129km/h.

... Alerts were also in place further north, with warnings of heavy rain and wind speeds of up to 100 km/h in the western half of the Netherlands.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2744 on: June 11, 2019, 09:38:45 AM »
Hailstorm in München Germany June 10th 2019. Tennis ball sized.

Link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/NatureIsFuckingLit/comments/bz4w1n/hailstorm_in_münchen_germany_june_10th_2019/

Video with sound >> https://twitter.com/filiusmontium/status/1138171474173464578

Another, even more impressive video >> https://twitter.com/mmatschi59/status/1138163303958614020
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 09:44:34 AM by b_lumenkraft »

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2745 on: June 11, 2019, 10:01:20 AM »
Typical European weather, right?

Tuesday: 35°C in Poland, while SW Germany has 9°C


IceConcerned

  • New ice
  • Posts: 22
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2746 on: June 11, 2019, 06:16:36 PM »
The Reds are coming !  8)

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2747 on: June 11, 2019, 06:43:26 PM »
Yeah, that's the real red scare.

Soon to be in your weather station too.

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 821
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 42
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2748 on: June 11, 2019, 09:01:29 PM »
There is a pic with solar panels on it. Do you think they are broken by the hail ? https://watchers.news/2019/06/11/brutal-hailstorms-hit-germany-severe-damage-reported-several-people-injured/

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2749 on: June 12, 2019, 09:50:46 AM »
I don't know much about meteorology, but this just doesn't look right!