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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 804712 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3200 on: September 09, 2020, 12:31:31 AM »


https://mobile.twitter.com/ColoradoClimate/status/1302654620733333504

Meteorologists will be checking to see whether any place in Colorado officially beats the national record for the shortest gap between a 100-degree day and measurable snow.

It had been five days in Rapid City, S.D., in 2000, says Alaska-based climatologist Brian Brettschneider, who notes that he studied only records kept at major weather stations.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/08/910677557/in-48-hours-colorados-wild-weather-sets-records-for-both-heat-and-snow


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« Last Edit: September 09, 2020, 12:45:38 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Phil42

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3201 on: September 16, 2020, 10:24:26 AM »
Some anecdotes from Switzerland

It has been an interesting summer here. An mentionable observation I made was that people in general (including me) would describe this summer as "average" or "normal" in regards to temperature. But in reality it has been one of the 10 hottest summers ever recorded in the country. But since it was cooler than 2016, 2018 and 2019 it actually didn't feel that extreme. I think that's a very good example that our feelings of what is "normal" are shifting rapidly with the rising temperatures. This is just an anecdote, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear similar stories from other parts of the world.

Another thing that happened was that the highest alert for severe weather was issued for the first time in 15 years. Despite the summer being slightly below average in rainfall, we have seen some very intense rainfalls in the end of August causing floods in the south. This is consistent with a trend too here: less rainfall in summer, but when it rains, it pours.

And now, there was this mid-September heatwave gripping Western-Central Europe. September records broken in several stations across multiple countries. Here in CH, the station in Fahy (596m above sea level) has set a new september record of 29.9C. The heatwave doesn't get that much attention in the media, which is kind of surprising to me since the anomalies are up to 15C above normal. But then again, with the increasing number of heatwaves they feel more and more "normal" every year.

There hasn't been anything too extraordinary happening, but everything is just consistent in the trend of everything getting warmer. More heatwaves, glaciers melting, fish dying and ... nothing changes.

nanning

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3202 on: September 16, 2020, 04:27:22 PM »
You probably mean "nothing changes in (civilisation-) human behaviour" or somesuch?

Here cold records and hot records were broken in July and now in September. Very weird.
Climate change is especially seen in the winter months which are already heated up ca. +3°C this year, and more turbulence; higher average wind force, faster changes in wind direction and different wind direction distribution. This will be one hell of a climate transition. Omegad.
This is in the north of the Netherlands, 53°N.

I think your observations of new 'normals' in weather are spot on. Missing life forms are also part of the new 'normal'.
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El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3203 on: September 16, 2020, 05:01:58 PM »
The problem with anecdotal weather is that...it is anecdotal. And most people have a very very short and faulty memory. When (many years ago)  I crosschecked my grandparents stories about weather during their childhood with actual weather data it turned out that their memories were less than exact to put it mildly. So here are some actual data from Central Europe (Budapest).

Monthly average temperature, monthly minimum temperature, monthly maximum temperature 1960-1990 avg vs 2010-2019 avg

1. -0,6 vs 1,3  ;  -9,3 vs -7 ; 9,5 vs 11,5
2. 1,9 vs 3,1   ;  -7,3 vs -5,3;  11,5 vs 15,1
3. 6,3 vs 8,2   ;  -4,1 vs -1,9; 19,8 vs 21
4. 11.8 vs 13,8 ; 1,1 vs 2,4;  24,4 vs 27,8
5. 16,6 vs 17,4;  5,4 vs 6,6; 28,6 vs 30,2
6. 19,8 vs 22 ;  9,5 vs 11,7; 31,6 vs 34,8
7. 21,5 vs 23,8 ; 11,8 vs 12,6; 33,5 vs 36,4
8. 20,8 vs 23,5  ; 10,9 vs 12,6; 33,1 vs 36,1
9. 17 vs 18,2     ; 6,6 vs 7,7; 29,5 vs 31,1
10. 11,5 vs 12,5 ; 0,8 vs 1,8; 23,8 vs 24,7
11. 5,7 vs 7,9 ; -3,4 vs -0,9; 16,5 vs 19,1
12. 1,6 vs 2,8 ; -7,3 vs -6,4; 11,5 vs 13,7

As you can see average temperatures rose cca 2 C but monthly minimum and maximum temperatures also rose similarly.

I also checked the standard deviation of temps and other distribution measures, eg skewness, the length of the growing season, last and first frost date, etc. The point is that all temperatures rose and volatility is not statistically higher than before. The weather is not at all more weird than it used to be (although it seems like that to us), it is not that the highs are higher and the lows are lower, and it is not more extreme. It is simply warmer. Shorter, warmer winters, longer, warmer summers,early spring, late autumn. It is not more chaotic than before. Simply, my country is slowly transitioning into the subtropical zone.

Warming does not cause more volatility in temperatures, it just causes warming. And coincidentally more rain globally but a changing distribution of rain which could be more dangerous than the effect of temperatures as adaptation to (much) less or much more precipitation can be very hard.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 05:18:02 PM by El Cid »

Comradez

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3204 on: September 16, 2020, 07:40:53 PM »
Hey, so apparently there is a tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean right now.  Could possibly reach hurricane strength before slamming into Greece.  Named Udine / Ianos
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=121371

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3205 on: September 24, 2020, 02:39:00 PM »
From The Guardian, 21 Sep 2020


I'm 18 and can already see my Alaska community changed forever by climate change

In Sitka, where people have lived for thousands of years, I’ve seen glaciers shrink, summer droughts and deadly landslides – and our elected officials are doing nothing

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/21/sitka-alaska-community-changed-forever-climate-change-cora-dow

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3206 on: October 04, 2020, 02:58:21 AM »
Two Dead and 24 Missing After Floods in France and Italy
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/03/floods-france-italy-record-rain

Record rain in mountainous region destroys bridges, blocks roads and cuts off communities

... In northern Italy’s Piedmont region, overnight rainfall reached levels not recorded since 1958. As much as 630mm (24.8in) of rain fell in a 24-hour period, according to the Italian civil protection agency.

In south-east France, almost a year’s average rainfall fell in less than 12 hours in the mountainous area surrounding the city of Nice.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3207 on: October 23, 2020, 09:18:38 PM »
Well, this Oct 23 is 80º F in Twinsburg, which is kinda weird.
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The Walrus

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3208 on: October 23, 2020, 11:09:05 PM »
Well, this Oct 23 is 80º F in Twinsburg, which is kinda weird.

And snow is forecast in Texas this weekend.

gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3209 on: October 29, 2020, 07:38:29 PM »
Rermnants of Epsilon & then Zeta cross the Atlantic

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54735772
Hurricane Epsilon sends huge waves to NI coastline
Quote
A very deep area of low pressure and the remnants of Hurricane Epsilon created the conditions to bring about the huge Atlantic swells.

One buoy reported a maximum wave height of close to 30m (98ft)

The size and power of the waves sent skilled surfers to the coast, but these high seas can be very dangerous.

We are not out of the woods yet with not one but two deep lows coming in for the weekend.

After a brief lull with some sunshine on Friday, winds will strengthen again and are likely to be higher than those we had on Wednesday.

Gales or severe gales will develop in places through Saturday, also Sunday into Monday, the second area of low pressure containing the remnants of Hurricane Zeta.
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blu_ice

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3210 on: November 03, 2020, 12:05:02 PM »
Winter is coming, or maybe not.

All time November temperature record in Finland: 14.7 C was measured in Pori at the early hours of Nov 3rd.  Quite remarkably it may be broken already next Friday.

Previous record 14.3 C was from 2015.

John Batteen

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3211 on: November 05, 2020, 03:20:54 PM »
Things are oscillating wildly on the northern plains.  On October 9th, Aberdeen SD set a record high for the date of 86f.  Over the next two weeks, the temperature got colder every single day, it snowed three times for around ten inches all told, then tied the record low for the date of October 26th at -3f, then set the record low for the date at 1f on the 27th.  Now on the 3rd of November we set the record high for the date at 76f, then on the 4th we tied the record high for the date at 78f.  The record high for the month of November is only 79f.  A few other recording stations throughout the state did record their all time November highs on the 4th.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3212 on: November 05, 2020, 04:35:39 PM »
And therefore "Climate Weirding" (popularized by Katharine Hayhoe)
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vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3213 on: November 05, 2020, 04:46:21 PM »
Things are oscillating wildly on the northern plains. 

That's going to mess with winter wheat.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3214 on: November 10, 2020, 12:24:08 PM »
Pushing 80º F in Twinsburg again...
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John Batteen

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3215 on: November 10, 2020, 07:10:14 PM »
The trees had started budding out like it was spring, then the cold wind blew in night before last and froze them off.  I think they'll be OK but, far from ideal.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3216 on: November 16, 2020, 02:07:42 PM »
I wrote a short blog/piece on netweather looking at the links between climate change and mid latitude weather. It's a quite light but it's intended to set up some more in-depth articles to come:

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10569-variable-british-weather-is-something-up?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=nw&utm_campaign=social
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3217 on: November 16, 2020, 10:11:43 PM »
Thanks BFTV, very clear writeup that helped me understand some things I should have known a long time ago.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3218 on: November 17, 2020, 02:54:53 AM »
I wrote a short blog/piece on netweather looking at the links between climate change and mid latitude weather. It's a quite light but it's intended to set up some more in-depth articles to come:

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10569-variable-british-weather-is-something-up?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=nw&utm_campaign=social
excellent

Kirr

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3219 on: November 22, 2020, 12:40:14 PM »
An unusual ice storm occurred in Vladivostok on Nov. 20. Massive layer of ice was deposited on all surfaces, with severe damage to trees and wires. Most of trees are severely damaged, and the ground is covered with broken off branches.

Parts of city still have no electricity, water and heating. Two high voltage transmission line towers collapsed under the added weight of ice, causing blackout in part of city. It's still unknown when the power will be restored.

A separate big concern is for birds who lost access to seeds, an important food source this season.




Ice that formed on the wires:


More photos at: http://kirr.homeunix.org/nature/2020-11-20-Vladivostok-Ice-Storm/.

I've no idea if such events are getting more frequent or more severe with the changing climate.

kassy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3220 on: November 22, 2020, 04:21:52 PM »
That looks pretty nasty. Thanks for reporting and welcome.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3221 on: November 22, 2020, 09:22:51 PM »
I've certainly experienced ice storms, but that hunk of ice being held by that mitten sure beats the cake out of any rime ice or ice storm coatings I've ever seen in person.  (Compare Mt. Washington, New Hampshire, USA rime ice images.)  More pictures of this Russian event here, with one example below.

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sidd

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3222 on: November 22, 2020, 10:30:33 PM »
This looks like an icestorm i came thru in Kansas about twenty years ago. I-70 was a mess, i was eastbound  and started seeing wrecks as i crossed the colorado border. Got one of the last motel rooms somewhere east of kanorado and was stuck there for a couple days while they cleared the mess.

sidd

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3223 on: November 23, 2020, 12:38:18 AM »

More photos at: http://kirr.homeunix.org/nature/2020-11-20-Vladivostok-Ice-Storm/.

I've no idea if such events are getting more frequent or more severe with the changing climate.

I posted a link to this page over on another blog. Someone clicked on it and got a warning from Malwarebytes. He then proceeded to block me over there, tell everyone I am trying to hack them and to NEVER click on any links I post.

I opened it and all I saw was a photo gallery.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 12:46:41 AM by Alphabet Hotel »

Kirr

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3224 on: November 23, 2020, 01:18:15 AM »
I posted a link to this page over on another blog. Someone clicked on it and got a warning from Malwarebytes. He then proceeded to block me over there, tell everyone I am trying to hack them and to NEVER click on any links I post.

I opened it and all I saw was a photo gallery.
What? :o The only thing I can imagine sub-optimal with my site is not using HTTPS. There's 0 trackers, ads, or any dynamic content, there's even no any analytics scripts. It's just a static page, lovingly hand-crafted for this special event. Is this enough to get flagged as suspicious in today's world of social networks and gigantic platforms? Further more, my site is not even anonymous.

Re-posting the link is welcome anywhere (as I don't show ads, I don't get any income from it). If you let me know the blog where you tried to post it, I will register there and post the link myself (as long as it's not a social network site), to see it gets me blocked too.

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3225 on: November 23, 2020, 01:24:13 AM »
BBC might be safer ...

Vladivostok Snowstorm: Emergency Declared Amid Chaos and Power Cuts
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55015516



... "The situation with the electricity supply remains very difficult - the destruction is widespread," the deputy head of the region's government, Elena Parkhamenko, said.

She said electricity may not be restored to some homes for several days.

The chief of the regional meteorological service, Boris Kubay, said the situation has been "aggravated by a strong gale wind that breaks everything".

He said a clash between two storms, one carrying hot air and another carrying cold, caused freezing rain on Thursday.

The meteorologist said wires and trees were encrusted in ice up to 1.2cm (0.4in) thick, an occurrence not seen in 30 years

[... We used to see that every year up near Portland, OR]

Local media said some hospitals in Vladivostok, including one treating coronavirus patients, had to use back-up generators for electricity.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3226 on: November 23, 2020, 02:38:47 AM »
While the wires near the person look like cable. I wouldn't cross that close to power lines.

oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3227 on: November 23, 2020, 07:41:44 AM »
Kirr don't worry, nothing wrong with your site, it opens perfectly. Thanks for sharing, and welcome.

El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3228 on: November 23, 2020, 08:46:49 AM »
We had something like that a few years ago, many centimeters of  ice on trees after the frozen rain. I left to meet some friends in the afternoon by car, and by the time I came home late night, about 10 huge trees fell on the 200 m long road leading to our house. I parked the car and walked home but heard more trees falling during the night. One hit our house but did not cause much damage luckily. Pretty frightening experience.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3229 on: November 23, 2020, 10:03:58 AM »
Thanks for the welcome, kassy and oren! I have to say I've been lurking here for years, and learned a lot (especially from AbruptSLR's thread). Hoping to be able to also contribute something useful in the future.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3230 on: November 23, 2020, 04:06:29 PM »
Is it “weird weather” where they have a system in place to deal with it? :o
Quote
11/22/20, 5:34 PM
China may have the world’s biggest high speed rail network, but it’s reliant on guys sat on top of a train with wooden sticks to de-ice the overhead power lines in winter! @25kV 
➡️ https://twitter.com/ogilvie_cj/status/1330640786711588865
Screen cap below; 53 second vid at the link.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3231 on: Today at 05:36:35 AM »
Hello, on November 20th an ice storm, maybe the same one mentioned above hit Changchun city, Jilin Province, China (were I am) and much of northern china.  There were of branches of trees everywhere broken off with the weight of the ice and the wind.  This was followed by quite heavy snow.  It has been sunny for several days now.

I can tell you travelling to work on the bus (the light rail did not work) took hours.  I have no idea how the bus drivers managed to drive on the ice and snow covered roads that were lined with broken trees.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3232 on: Today at 07:26:11 AM »
Amazing pictures and stories of those freezing rains and wind storms. I shudder at the thought of being in one. Beautiful, but so destructive!