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vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3800 on: May 17, 2024, 01:13:22 PM »
Storms of My Grandchildren? ...

At Least 4 Dead in Houston as Destructive Storms Lash Texas and Louisiana With Strong Winds and Flood Threats
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/16/weather/south-flooding-texas-louisiana-climate
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2024-05-16-houston-severe-weather-tornado-rain



At least four people are dead in Houston after hurricane-force winds and torrential rains tore a damaging path through the city Thursday – part of a lashing storm system that is bringing life-threatening flooding and power outages to parts of the South.

Severe storms carved through parts of Texas Thursday before pushing into western Louisiana through Friday’s early hours, prompting an overnight flash flood warning for New Orleans.

... Violent storms in Houston blew out skyscraper windows, partially collapsed a nightclub and ripped a strip of roofing off the downtown Hyatt Regency, showering the hotel lobby with rain and debris, according to witness video.

"Widespread debris, glass and electrical lines are in the streets," the NWS warned.

https://x.com/NWSHouston/status/1791301992167723191

All non-essential workers are urged to stay home tomorrow and city schools are closed as widespread power outages have darkened the city and disabled traffic lights, Mayor John Whitmire said. Streets are littered with debris, downed trees and power lines, and the downtown area is dusted with glass from broken windows, he added.

Winds in the city were reported as high as 71 mph, according to the weather service. On the east side of the city, there were reports of winds up to 78 mph – equivalent to the strength of a Category 1 hurricane.



The weather service also reported straight-line winds of up to 100 mph (161 kph) in downtown Houston and the suburbs of Baytown and Galena Park.

There were wind gusts of 84 mph (135 kph) at Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport and 82 mph (132 kph) at New Orleans Lakefront Airport, according to Tim Erickson, a meteorologist at the weather service’s office for New Orleans and Baton Rouge

... Power outages left more than 1,000,000 homes and businesses in the dark across Texas as of Thursday night. More than 200,000 are also without power in Louisiana as storms batter the state.

Possible tornadoes posed a risk in Texas and Louisiana, and carried the threat of destructive winds and golf ball-sized hail. A reported tornado in Convent, Louisiana, downed trees and power poles late Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center said.

Parts of Texas and western Louisiana are under a rare Level 4 of 4 high risk of excessive rainfall Thursday, the Weather Prediction Center said. More than 600,000 people live in the high-risk zone.

... Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 6 inches are expected from Texas to Georgia through Saturday morning. A few spots caught under multiple torrential storms may pick up 8 inches or more of rain. It’s not out of the question that one or two spots could record close to a foot of rain in about 48 hours.

Texas and Louisiana have been in the bull’s-eye of seemingly unrelenting rounds of torrential, flooding downpours since the start of April. Rainfall in the waterlogged area over the last two weeks is over 600% of what’s typical, according to the WPC.

The weather service also issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Houston with the highest-level “destructive” tag.


Double-digit rainfall totals between 20 and 30 inches over the region in recent weeks have soaked the ground and left rivers swollen, priming the flood threat to extreme levels.

Drenched soils are not expected to soak up any of Thursday’s rainfall, the WPC warned Thursday morning. Widespread flash flooding could begin minutes after heavy rain starts to fall.

It’s a sign the atmosphere is primed to unload extreme amounts of rain, a phenomenon that is becoming more frequent in a warming world driven by human-caused climate change.

--------------------------------------------------------

Harris County residents ‘may have to go a couple of weeks without power’ after severe weather rips through SE Texas
https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2024/05/17/harris-county-judge-lina-hidalgo-provides-latest-updates-on-deadly-severe-weather-that-ripped-through-se-texas/

While daylight revealed just how intense the storms were, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo and Houston Mayor John Whitmire both addressed community members Friday morning.

Hidalgo said its been a long two weeks for the Houston area and this is the second storm that has battered the area within those weeks. Local officials expected some rain but instead experienced 85 mph to 100 mph wind damage.

The county judge compared Thursday’s weather scenario to Hurricane Alicia in 1983.

There has been four weather-related casualties, damaged roads, flipped 18-wheelers, structural fires, downed trees and power lines. Recovery efforts are underway as crews work to clear freeways and roadways.

Mayor Whitmire said at least 2,500 traffic lights are not functioning and crews are also working to fix.

The county judge says residents “may have to go a couple of weeks without power” who are tied to the 10 transmission lines that fell during the storm. Seven out of the 10 damaged transmissions are in Harris County.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2024, 12:01:17 AM by vox_mundi »
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3801 on: May 19, 2024, 12:07:00 AM »
Hot Weather Poses New Risk As Thousands Remain Without Power After Deadly Houston Storm
https://apnews.com/article/houston-texas-storms-power-outages-86643a6d7decd28e971774e03b52e51d

HOUSTON (AP) — As the Houston area works to clean up and restore power to hundreds of thousands after deadly storms left at least seven people dead, it will do so amid a smog warning and scorching temperatures that could pose health risks.

National Weather Service meteorologist Marc Chenard said on Saturday that highs of around 90 degrees (32.2 C) were expected through the start of the coming week, with heat indexes likely approaching 100 degrees (38 C) by midweek.

“We expect the impact of the heat to gradually increase ... we will start to see that heat risk increase Tuesday into Wednesday through Friday,” Chenard said.

In addition to the heat, the Houston area could face poor air quality during the weekend.

... More than a half-million homes and businesses in Texas remained without electricity by midday Saturday
, according to PowerOutage.us. Another 21,000 customers were also without power in Louisiana, where strong winds and a suspected tornado hit.
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3802 on: June 06, 2024, 02:10:25 PM »
Hail Stone the Size of a Pineapple Found In Texas. Likely Sets a State Record
https://phys.org/news/2024-06-hail-stone-size-pineapple-texas.html



Val and Amy Castor, veteran storm chasers with Oklahoma City television station KWTV, discovered a piece of hail more than 7 inches (17.78 centimeters) long Sunday along the side of the road near Vigo Park while they were chasing a major thunderstorm system.

Val Castor said the stone was about the size of a pineapple.

"That's the biggest hail I've ever seen, and I've been chasing storms for more than 30 years," Castor said.



Castor said several baseball-sized hail stones fell while he was driving, including one that cracked his windshield, before he spotted the big piece in a ditch on the side of the road.

"I could see it from probably 100 yards away," he said.

The massive hail stone is believed to be a new state record, topping a 6.4-inch (16.25-centimeter) hail stone found in Hondo in 2021.

The heaviest hail stone on record in the United States had a reported diameter of 11 inches (27.94 centimeters) and weighed nearly 2 pounds (907 grams). It was discovered near Vivian, South Dakota, in July 2010, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3803 on: June 12, 2024, 06:43:23 PM »
Southern Florida Receives Record Rainfall and Flash Flooding In a 500-to-1,000-Year Event
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/southern-florida-receives-record-rainfall-flash-flooding-500-1000-year-rcna156700

The 3.93 inches (100 mm) of rain that fell at the Sarasota-Bradenton Airport in one hour is also a record — and more rain is expected this week.

A city on Florida's west coast was hit by a record-breaking 8 inches of rain in just three hours on Tuesday evening, bringing flash floods to the area, hindering drivers and delaying hundreds of flights across the state.

So rare was Tuesday's rain between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. in Sarasota that it should only be expected every 500 to 1,000 years. The Tampa Bay area can normally expect 7.3 inches in the entire month of June.

Coastal areas in Sarasota County saw up to 10 inches of rain on Tuesday alone, with the same possible Wednesday and throughout the week, the NWS office in Tampa Bay said.

https://x.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1800828574758527204



Video uploaded to social media showed a fire truck and lanes of traffic driving badly flooded roads in Sarasota. Across the region cars became stranded after attempting to drive through deep water, including in Siesta Key to the west of Sarasota.

Video: https://x.com/zpski/status/1800721901557612603

Video: https://x.com/SceneFirst1/status/1800718773596590164

https://x.com/ryantnt/status/1800693019508891979

The weather system was caused by deep tropical moisture from a disturbance called 90-L by the National Hurricane Center, as well as a small area of low pressure of Florida's west coast and "a very slow-moving stubborn convergent band," according to Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist at NBC affiliate WFLA of Tampa.

More rain is expected throughout this week across the state. The National Weather Service warned residents to expect more than 7 inches of rain in "a prolonged heavy to excessive rainfall event across southern Florida for the next several days," in a forecast early Wednesday.


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0427&yr=2024

Summary...Localized rainfall rates on the order of 2-4"/hr may support additional localized totals of 6"+ with sufficient training/repeating of cells. Localized instances of flash flooding are likely, given the increased sensitivity from recent heavy rainfall.

Discussion...Heavy shower activity is once again building over the warm waters of the southeast Gulf of Mexico, following a relative lull this morning in convective activity along the western coast of central FL. A 25-35 kt low-level jet (LLJ) is situated just downstream (with the maxima near the eastern central coast of FL), resulting in a localized enhancement of lift (via DPVA with minimal influence from upper-level dynamics). The mesoscale environment is reminiscent of the tropics, as PWATs of 2.0-2.5" are near record levels (per TBW sounding climatology) with dew points in the upper 70s to near 80deg F, ML CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear near 20 kts. While deep convection may be able to tap into more significant instability (as indicated by 3000-5000 MU CAPE just offshore), relatively shallow heavy showers/thunderstorms will easily produce 1-2"/hr rates (with more intense convection capable of 2-4"/hr rates, particularly if additional training/repeating occurs).

Hi-res CAMs paint a rather concerning picture this morning, suggesting additional localized totals of 6"+ are possible through 18z. This is indicated by both the 06z HREF probability matched mean (PMM) QPF and 40-km neighborhood exceedance probabilities (40-70% for 5" exceedance), as well as by hourly runs of the HRRR since 06z. That said, not every HREF member or every run of the HRRR indicates such totals, as this threat is conditionally dependent on a training/repeating axis to set up along the coast. This could occur anywhere from Sarasota to Naples, though the Fort Myers/Punta Gorda region looks most favored (per the observational trends matching up quite well with guidance). Given that average totals over the past 24 hours commonly range from 3-5" (with localized totals remarkably as high as 6-12", per MRMS estimates), isolated instances of flash flooding appear to be likely (with locally significant impacts possible in poor drainage, urbanized terrain).

There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3804 on: June 13, 2024, 07:57:47 PM »
State of 'Catastrophe' As Downpours Hit Chile
https://phys.org/news/2024-06-state-catastrophe-downpours-chile.html



Heavy rains battered south and central Chile on Thursday, killing one person and causing damage to hundreds of homes as authorities declared a state of catastrophe in five regions of the South American country.

Chile's weather service issued the highest level of alarm, covering some 14 million of the 20 million people living in five of the country's 16 regions.

Prior to the arrival of the flood waters, the country's central region had battled severe drought for 15 years.

Curanilahue, some 600 kilometers (372 miles) south of the capital Santiago, has been hard hit as the Curanilahue and Las Ranas rivers overflowed after the area received 350 millimeters (13.7 inches) of rain in just hours—more than in 2023 as a whole.

Schools in the capital and other regions were closed, and the authorities urged people to limit their movements.

In the city of Vina del Mar, a 12-story apartment building is at risk of collapse after the rains caused a massive sink hole underneath it.

The weather service said a cold front over the country was accompanied by something called an "atmospheric river"—a strip of air carrying huge amounts of moisture.
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3805 on: June 26, 2024, 03:28:21 AM »
It's 2 o'clock in the morning and here on the North Coast of Scotland at 59 North we have a magnificent display of noctilucent clouds.

photos are looking North - made on oldish mobile phone without any change to normal shutter speed.
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pikaia

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3806 on: June 26, 2024, 09:25:53 AM »
2024 was expected to be a bad year for noctilucent clouds, according to this:-
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=24&month=06&year=2024

I also saw them on June 21st from Liverpool, latitude 53.5.


vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3807 on: June 30, 2024, 12:25:39 AM »
Noctilucent Clouds Blanket Europe:
https://spaceweathergallery2.com/index.php?title=noctilucent&title2=nlc

This weekend, Europe is experiencing a widespread outbreak of noctilucent clouds (NLCs). Normally confined inside the Arctic Circle, the electric-blue wisps of frosted meteor smoke have been sighted as far south as Italy:

Similar displays brightened the night skies of Austria, the Netherlands, Scotland, France, England, Lithuania, Croatia, Germany, Denmark, Belgium and Luxembourg.
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

Freegrass

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3808 on: June 30, 2024, 07:20:59 PM »
Holy guacamole. 😱
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

kiwichick16

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3809 on: July 01, 2024, 03:57:24 AM »
does this come under climate change  ......or at least attempting to ?

https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/jun/30/scientists-find-desert-moss-that-can-survive-on-mars

SimonF92

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3810 on: July 01, 2024, 12:00:43 PM »
I suppose this isn't really anecdotal, given its a yearly ground-truth survey done by some very hardy Scots-people.

The A9 is a big road that bisects Scotland. Most of the high snow-catching peaks are east of it.

Please send me a message if you'd like more information, as I dont want to dox the people who collect these data.

Anectodally, when I was up on one of the classic ice climbing hills in March, it was in a horrendous state
 
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morganism

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3811 on: July 06, 2024, 11:11:57 PM »
(you know how it gets cooler as you hike higher in the hills? yeah, about that....)


@Weather_West

At 8:45am today, it was 94F (!) near top of Mt. Tam in Marin County. ~1000 feet lower and a mile away, on the Panoramic Highway, it was 55 degrees. Although the SF Bay Area is no stranger to microclimates, this is a remarkable testament to exceptionally warm airmass aloft.

NWS Bay Area 🌉  @NWSBayArea

😮Impressive temperature spread this morning over the Marin Headlands.  ~40°F difference in roughly one mile and 1,000 feet.  These large gradients are rather common during heat events thanks to cool air (Pacific) and a marine layer.


https://nitter.poast.org/Weather_West/status/1809620980932702224#m
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3812 on: July 11, 2024, 07:20:25 PM »
Remnants of former Hurricane Beryl in New York state and Pennsylvania.
 
Quote
Tom Niziol
 
I can honestly say I have never seen six tornado warnings at the same time in Western New York in my entire career!!! #Beryl
7/10/24, 2:31 PM    https://x.com/tomniziol/status/1811106007579595198
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vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3813 on: July 17, 2024, 10:20:14 AM »
Toronto reels from floods and power cuts after severe storms
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw4ypd11wr0o



Record rainfall from three huge storms has flooded parts of Toronto, cut power and left drivers stranded on the major motorway through the city.

Environment Canada reported that almost 100mm (4in) of rain fell on Toronto on Tuesday, surpassing the city's daily record set in 1941.

Images and videos showed severe flooding across the city, cars nearly submerged, and water cascading down the staircases at Union Station.

The storm left more than 167,000 customers without power, according to Toronto Hydro.

... “We had 25 per cent more rain in three hours than we'd have normally in the whole month of July with all the thunderstorms and systems that moved through,” meteorologist Dave Phillips told local news station CP24.

----------------------------------------------------------

NWS counts 29 possible tornado tracks in Chicago area Monday night
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/07/16/chicago-tornadoes-derecho-midwest-winds/

The National Weather Service on Tuesday was investigating 29 potential tornado tracks from the powerful and dangerous storms that hit the area the night before.

The NWS has not yet released specifics on a possible large tornado reported on the ground at O'Hare International Airport Monday night, and another possible tornado at Midway International Airport.

More than 200,000 Chicago area ComEd customers woke up Tuesday morning to power outages caused by the severe storm damage with flooding and downed trees.

https://x.com/NWSChicago
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3814 on: July 25, 2024, 08:54:18 PM »
Climate Change Will Bring More Turbulence to Flights In the Northern Hemisphere, Analysis Finds
https://phys.org/news/2024-07-climate-turbulence-flights-northern-hemisphere.html#google_vignette



A type of invisible, unpredictable air turbulence is expected to occur more frequently in the Northern Hemisphere as the climate warms, according to new research. Known as clear air turbulence, the phenomenon also increased in the Northern Hemisphere between 1980 and 2021, the study found.

The research follows up on recent work predicting increases in moderate-to-severe clear air turbulence by analyzing extensive data sets and running comprehensive model simulations. The study was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

The results suggest clear air turbulence will increase in most regions affected by the jet stream, especially over North Africa, East Asia and the Middle East, and that the probability of clear air turbulence will increase with each degree of warming.

"We know that clear air turbulence is the main cause of aviation turbulence, which causes approximately 70% of all weather-related accidents over the United States," said Mohamed Foudad, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading and the study's lead author. Recent well-publicized encounters with clear air turbulence caused injuries on Singapore Airlines and Air Europa flights.

Foudad added that aviation engineers should account for an increase in turbulence when designing aircraft in the future.

"We now have high confidence that climate change is increasing clear air turbulence in some regions," he said.

... As the climate warms, the amount of energy in the atmosphere will grow, increasing both the velocity of jet streams and the number of vertical wind shears. Those increases mean that clear air turbulence, which planes currently encounter about 1% of the time in the Northern Hemisphere, is expected to become more common in the future. Currently, clear air turbulence is most frequent over East Asia, where the subtropical jet stream is the strongest and where planes can expect to encounter moderate-to-severe clear air turbulence approximately 7.5% of the time.

... By reanalyzing atmospheric data from 1980 to 2021, the researchers found that moderate-to-severe clear air turbulence increased between approximately 60% and 155% over North Africa, East Asia, the Middle East, the North Atlantic and the North Pacific over the 41-year interval.

"We will see more of these accidents, but people should also be aware that aircraft are designed to resist the worst turbulence that could happen," Foudad said.

 Mohamed Foudad et al, Past and Future Trends in Clear‐Air Turbulence Over the Northern Hemisphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2024)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023JD040261

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There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

morganism

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3815 on: August 06, 2024, 01:37:50 AM »
Thunderstorms Have Caused $45 Billion in Damages in the U.S. in Just Six Months

Damage from high-frequency storms is rising faster than losses from major disasters such as hurricanes and wildfires

CLIMATEWIRE | Global losses from natural disasters eclipsed the long-term average in the first half of 2024, with thunderstorms causing more damage in the U.S. than hurricanes, wildfires or other catastrophes.

An analysis from the reinsurance company Munich Re found that severe thunderstorms in the U.S. caused $45 billion in losses from January to June, $34 billion of which were insured. That makes 2024 the fourth-costliest thunderstorm year on record, based on the first six months.

Many of the losses were driven by tornadoes and hail spawned from the storms, the report notes.

North America accounted for $60 billion in losses — half of all damages worldwide. Globally, insured losses totaled $62 billion, compared with the 10-year average of $37 billion.

Thunderstorms may seem like small events compared with other kinds of disasters. Individually, they tend to cause less damage than earthquakes, hurricanes, fires and floods. But they also strike more frequently than many other severe weather events, and their damages add up over time.

A January report from Munich Re found that thunderstorm losses in Europe and North America broke records in 2023, causing damages totaling $76 billion and $58 billion in insured losses.

A report from another reinsurance company, Swiss Re, also warned last year that thunderstorm damage is growing worldwide. A high number of low- to medium-severity events occurred around the globe last year, causing more than $100 billion in losses. Thunderstorms were the main contributor.

“The cumulative effect of frequent, low-loss events, along with increasing property values and repair costs, has a big impact on an insurer's profitability over a longer period,” said Jérôme Jean Haegeli, chief economist at Swiss Re, in a statement last year. “The high frequency of severe thunderstorms in 2023 has been an earnings test for the primary insurance industry."

Studies show that climate change worsens thunderstorms around the world. That’s largely a matter of simple physics — a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, allowing for more intense rainfall events.

That doesn’t always translate to more frequent storms. In some places, the total number of thunderstorms might not change much — but the ones that do occur may grow stronger. Research already shows that extreme precipitation events have worsened across the U.S., according to the federal government’s Fifth National Climate Assessment. A 2023 study also found that severe thunderstorm winds are affecting a larger area of the country over time.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/thunderstorms-have-caused-usd45-billion-in-damages-in-the-u-s-in-just-six/
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vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3816 on: August 19, 2024, 12:47:36 AM »
It's been a little moist around here today ...

Locally (50 miles east of NYC):

... Between 4 and 8 inches (100-200 mm) of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 3 inches (50-75 mm/hr) in 1 hour.

“Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25-75 mm) are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring,”

"Residential pump outs will begin when the water subsides.

"If your home is flooded and you must leave, go to high ground when its safe to do so.

https://www.newtownbee.com/08182024/town-issues-codered-do-not-go-out-into-flooding-areas/

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Update: Flash Flood Warning
Issued: 6:09 PM Aug. 18, 2024 – National Weather Service

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED;
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC; EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

At 616 PM EDT, emergency management reported numerous water
rescues and washouts in Central Fairfield to Northern New Haven Counties. Several mudslides have been reported. Between 6 and 10 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

-----------------------------------------

Local dam: (we're going for the record)

https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/STVC3

------------------------------------------------------------



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Feet_High_and_Rising_(song)
« Last Edit: August 19, 2024, 01:29:08 AM by vox_mundi »
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

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John_the_Younger

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3817 on: August 19, 2024, 03:31:31 AM »
Stay safe, vox_mundi!

morganism

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3818 on: August 22, 2024, 08:13:02 AM »
@Weather_West
Aug 19
For the first time since June in many parts of California and the broader Southwest, *cooler* than average temperatures can be expected for the next week, thanks in part to arrival of a *second* anomalously deep August low pressure system over NorCal Thu/Fri. #CAwx [1/4]

https://nitter.poast.org/Weather_West
....

'Anomalously deep' low-pressure system to impact California  (snow on Yosemite peaks above 8k)


(This low is expected to head back north after the Cali impacts, and with the monsoon going strong over the Four Corners, could be early snow in Colorado/WY ? )
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El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3819 on: August 28, 2024, 03:23:08 PM »
Green Sahara coming back?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/unexpected-rainfall-event-sahara-desert-2024-anomaly-fa/


Unexpected Rainfall event starts in the Sahara Desert: A Rare Weather Phenomenon

A unique rainfall event is about to unfold across the Sahara desert, otherwise known as the driest place on Earth. The amount of rainfall might not seem large by normal standards, but a large part of the Sahara will get well over 500% of normal monthly rainfall in August and September.

It’s not very often that the Sahara desert experiences these rainfall events. They are very rare, less than once per decade on average, but they are usually a sign that something is perhaps changing in the Earth’s weather system, indicating an unusual state of the Atmosphere.


TLDR: The ITCZ is pushing more to the North (my thoughts: probably because the Atlantic is warming so fast) than usual bringing rain to the Sahara.

Two charts attached (more in the article). ITCZ position and precipitation anomaly

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3820 on: August 30, 2024, 12:10:14 AM »
You just lived through the most humid summer on record
Fueled by human-caused climate change, the record humidity has made heat waves more dangerous and intensified downpours.
Dan Stillman August 29, 2024
Quote
The United States and the entire planet are poised to clinch their most humid summer on record, scientists say. The sweltering conditions, which have pushed this year’s heat close to the limits of survivability in some areas and fueled flooding downpours, are part of a long-term increase in humid heat driven by human-caused climate change.

Climate models have long predicted that a warming world would lead to higher humidity, because warmer air evaporates more water from Earth’s surface and can hold more moisture. The consequences of more humid heat include greater stress on the human body, increased odds of more extreme rainfall, warmer nights and higher cooling demand.

With only a few days left in meteorological summer, defined as June to August, this summer is on track to be the most humid in the United States in 85 years of recordkeeping based on observations of dew point — a measure of humidity — compiled by Hudson Valley meteorologist Ben Noll. It’s also likely to end up being the most humid summer globally, Alaska-based climate scientist Brian Brettschneider said in an email to The Washington Post.

If both trends hold, then five of the most humid summers in both the United States and worldwide will have occurred since 1998.

“I have been tracking increasing surface moisture at the monthly time scale. June 2024 and July 2024 both set records for highest dew point for their respective months,” Brettschneider said. “I expect August 2024 to be a record too. Summer 2024 should break the record set in summer 2023.”

This summer’s surge in humidity continues a trend that goes back several decades, with extreme humid heat having more than doubled in frequency since 1979, according to a 2020 study led by UCLA climate scientist Colin Raymond.

Increasing humidity “makes summer heat feel more relentless, with a particular effect on nighttime temperatures,” Raymond said in an email. “That means more demand for cooling, and worse health consequences when cooling is unavailable or unaffordable.”

Another study, published in 2022 by climate scientists in the United States and China, found that increasing humidity has “led to more frequent and stronger extreme events such as heat waves, hurricanes, convection storms, and flash floods.”

High humidity pushes heat to the limit of survivability

To cool itself down, the human body reacts to heat by sweating. The evaporation of sweat into the surrounding air is what cools the body. But evaporation occurs more slowly when the air is humid, making it harder to cool off and increasing the risk of heat-related illness or death. The heat index measures how hot the air feels when factoring in the humidity.

In one of the most extreme episodes of heat, portions of the Persian Gulf saw the heat index exceed 140 degrees in both mid-July and this week as dew points soared to around 90 degrees. In the United States, any dew point over 70 degrees is usually considered uncomfortable. The extreme humidity levels were tied to bathtub-like sea-surface temperatures as high as 95 degrees in the Persian Gulf.

A Post analysis found that heat and humidity levels in northern India in May, part of a broader heat wave that spanned much of South and Southeast Asia, surpassed a threshold that researchers have identified as posing a risk to human survival if such heat in prolonged.

“In places like India and areas near the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, the increase in moisture and higher temperatures drives [conditions] to near the point where heat illness is almost certain without air conditioning,” Brettschneider said.

Record heat and humidity also have scorched large portions of the United States. Historically hot conditions arrived in Florida in May. That’s when Key West, Fla., one of the nation’s southernmost points, tied its highest heat index on record at 115 degrees. Northern locales have seen humid heat, too, as the heat index in Preston, Minn., surged to 120 earlier this week as the dew point climbed to 86 degrees, just two degrees short of the state record. On Tuesday, the heat index in Chicago spiked to 115.

Globally, July was the world’s warmest July on record and the 14th consecutive month of record global heat, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It was a month in which the planet saw its four hottest days ever observed and followed the warmest January-to-July period in 175 years of recordkeeping. “There is a 77% chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record,” NOAA said.

Even before summer started, more than 1.5 billion people worldwide experienced at least one day between January and May in which the combination of heat and humidity reached a threshold defined as “dangerous” by the National Weather Service.

Humid heat ‘supercharges’ water cycle

While it’s challenging to quantify the contribution of global warming to any one flood event, scientists say that warm air is clearly prone to holding more moisture and producing more intense rainfall.

High humidity near the ground, as well as record amounts of moisture from the ground to the top of the atmosphere, has helped fuel at least 10 significant flood events in the United States this year, including severe flooding in northeast Vermont after 8 inches of rain fell in just six hours. Other notable flood events occurred in Minnesota and in western Connecticut and Long Island, while Tropical Storm Debby flooded portions of the eastern United States from Florida to New York earlier this month.

In several cases, the National Weather Service had to issue a flash flood emergency, its most dire flood alert, reserved “for the exceedingly rare situations when extremely heavy rain is leading to a severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage from a flash flood.”

The nonprofit Climate Central says the atmosphere holds 4 percent more moisture for every one degree Fahrenheit of climate warming, which “supercharges” the water cycle and accounted for more than one-third of the $230 billion in damage from inland flooding in the country from 1988 to 2021.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/08/29/record-humidity-united-states-earth/
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3821 on: September 04, 2024, 10:07:01 PM »
Green Sahara coming back?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/unexpected-rainfall-event-sahara-desert-2024-anomaly-fa/


Unexpected Rainfall event starts in the Sahara Desert: A Rare Weather Phenomenon




Quote
This article was updated on “September 2nd” with the latest forecast graphics and an additional segment on the potential reason for such an unusual event.

The update is a link between hot SST anomalies in the Med and NAtl and precipitation in the Sahara. That heat drags the ITCZ north in Africa which results in extreme (for a desert) rainfall in the Sahara. Its also a likely factor in the current unexpectedly low level of hurricane activity in the North Atlantic peak season. Hot Atlantic water helps, but a northerly position of the ITCZ in Africa hinders hurricane formation. Which suggests that when this event ends, the Atlantic may explode into record late season activity, just as it was at record levels in the early season.

morganism

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3822 on: September 08, 2024, 02:02:06 AM »
(ben noll suggesting Canada may get a break this winter, and get some more rainfall, while NA USA looks dry thru oct. I am not so sure, the warm blob/RRR is still there in the SSTs, last time that worked as a steering high to push moisture down to SW/ 4 corners)

@BenNollWeather  Sep 6

The new ECMWF seasonal data has a stronger La Niña signal this winter than in previous runs 📉

The traditional Niño 3.4 Index has a minimum forecast value of -0.8˚C, while the relative Niño 3.4 Index is lower than -1.0˚C (moderate strength event).

The relative index compares the sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific with the rest of the global tropics and is more aligned with how the atmosphere may respond.

This will be a key climate driver in the seasons ahead, with the model also picking a reduction in the strength of the sub-tropical jet stream from fall into winter, which will influence the weather across the United States in particular.

https://nitter.poast.org/BenNollWeather/status/1832171647643906457#m
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kassy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3823 on: September 21, 2024, 09:47:33 PM »
https://www.nu.nl/buitenland/6329056/weggebruikers-gestrand-in-zuid-afrika-na-hevige-sneeuwval.html

A lot of snow late in the season in South Africa, mainly in the mountain areas. The coldest month is July and snow in September is not that usual. On sunday temps will get above 0C again.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3824 on: October 15, 2024, 05:27:47 PM »
The Sahara Desert Flooded for the First Time In Decades. Here’s What It Looks Like
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/14/weather/sahara-desert-floods-climate/index.html





The rain also filled lakes that are normally dry, such as one in Iriqui National Park, Morocco’s largest national park. NASA satellite images from the region, using false color to better highlight the floodwaters, show newly-formed lakes across swaths of the northwest Sahara.

before and after pictures at link

More extreme rainfall events could be expected in the Sahara in the future, according to recent research, as fossil fuel pollution continues to heat up the planet and disrupt the water cycle.
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

morganism

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3825 on: October 15, 2024, 08:51:32 PM »
Dr. Daniel Swain @Weather_West

In my next live & interactive livestream, I'll discuss (false) claims now widely circulating regarding "#weather control." I'll discuss why (direct) control by humans is essentially impossible, yet indirect influence is growing each year w/ #ClimateChange.

https://nitter.poast.org/Weather_West/status/1845617665617858740#m

https://invidious.poast.org/watch?v=ZD7HS98mUpk

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morganism

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3826 on: October 21, 2024, 10:22:06 PM »
Nahel Belgherze @WxNB_ Oct 14

Phoenix, Arizona is arguably facing one of the most extraordinary heatwaves ever recorded in American history, both in terms of duration and intensity. Yesterday marked the 20th CONSECUTIVE day on which the city either tied or set a record high temperature. Nearly *three straight weeks* of record-breaking temperatures. Truly mind-blowing. This is the longest such streak for any weather station in the U.S., pulverizing the previous all-time record of 14 consecutive days set in Burlington, Iowa in 1936. And even among all global stations with 50+ years of data, it would be hard to find anything comparable. Let's also recall that Phoenix set two monthly records within a span of just 4 days, which is insane (117°F on September 28, previous September monthly heat record was 108°F set in 1992 and 113°F on October 1, previous October monthly heat record was 107°F set in 1980 and 2020). Records in Phoenix date back to 1895.

So far in 2024, Phoenix has had 70 days at or above 110°F, the most ever recorded in a single year, beating the previous record set just last year by 15 days. The city averaged 5 days a year at 110°F or higher in the early 1900s. That number climbed to an average of 27 days by the 2010s.
(more, graphs)

https://nitter.poast.org/WxNB_/status/1845866657580818707#m

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be cause

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3827 on: October 29, 2024, 11:04:15 AM »
normally by 20.09. our farm hedges are full of migrating fieldfares and redwings from Scandinavia . Not this year . Arrivals have just begun ( 25.10 ). Their stay in Scandinavia has been @ 2 months longer than normal .
Must have been quite a year for them . They left here in early April before their usual feast on ivy berries had even begun . I would love to know how they decide to head home without access to a long range forecast .
We live in a Quantum universe . Do you live like you do ?

kassy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3828 on: October 29, 2024, 06:09:39 PM »
What time would they normally leave?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

be cause

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3829 on: October 30, 2024, 01:07:40 PM »
What time would they normally leave?
during May . I have seen them leave early when ivy berries are late , but this year they left leaving a ready to eat bumper crop .
We live in a Quantum universe . Do you live like you do ?

morganism

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3830 on: November 04, 2024, 12:57:18 AM »
(after the rains in the Sahara, here is hail in Saudi arabia to coat the sands)

https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1853107325802016768/vid/avc1/960x720/U3rwl18zX5GgziT6.mp4?tag=16

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vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3831 on: November 06, 2024, 06:23:50 PM »
50 miles East of NYC

15 years ago we had a blizzard on October 31st

Today: ..... 78°F/61°F ... 26°C/16°C ... No significant rain for 35 days

Normal: ... 56°F/34°F ... 13°C/1°C ... ~ 3.8 inches

Lilac is blooming
(Normally blooms in May)

WTF  :o
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3832 on: November 06, 2024, 09:42:10 PM »
50 miles East of NYC

15 years ago we had a blizzard on October 31st

Today: ..... 78°F/61°F ... 26°C/16°C ... No significant rain for 35 days

Normal: ... 56°F/34°F ... 13°C/1°C ... ~ 3.8 inches

Lilac is blooming
(Normally blooms in May)

WTF  :o

We all know you are lying because there is nothing other than the ocean east of NYC !!!

therealDonald

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3833 on: November 07, 2024, 01:39:55 AM »
50 miles East of NYC

15 years ago we had a blizzard on October 31st

Today: ..... 78°F/61°F ... 26°C/16°C ... No significant rain for 35 days

Normal: ... 56°F/34°F ... 13°C/1°C ... ~ 3.8 inches

Lilac is blooming
(Normally blooms in May)

WTF  :o

We all know you are lying because there is nothing other than the ocean east of NYC !!!

therealDonald

therealDonald needs to take a course in cartography. Even Google can come up with a better answer
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3834 on: November 07, 2024, 04:00:13 PM »
therealDonald is not very well versed in geography or anything else really, that's what I tried to make fun of.

Sorry it didn't work

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3835 on: November 07, 2024, 04:48:39 PM »
Sorry, forgot to put my humor chip in yesterday

« Last Edit: November 07, 2024, 05:06:47 PM by vox_mundi »
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

solartim27

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3836 on: November 07, 2024, 05:24:51 PM »
There is a little bit of land east of NYC, not sure if it goes as far as 50 miles
FNORD

Bruce Steele

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3837 on: November 07, 2024, 05:54:52 PM »
Do you expect the sun to come up in that direction?

morganism

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3838 on: November 21, 2024, 07:09:24 PM »
(some really weird large scale weather drivers setting up.  A -WPO stretching from E Russia to Alaska is supposed to drive lotta snow down into NA. Not sure if that is the RRRidge showing up again. Greenland High is setting up also.

https://nitter.poast.org/bamwxcom/status/1859317300836565043#m

And this comparison of the last 4 ENSO is showing that the current one is starting to resemble a gyre, instead of a cold plume. Strange indeed. )

https://nitter.poast.org/BrianBledsoe/status/1859276923748143177#m

(getting Nitter errors last 2 days too, sorry)


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vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3839 on: November 28, 2024, 11:58:13 AM »
South Korea officials say three dead in heavy snowfall
https://phys.org/news/2024-11-south-korea-dead-heavy-snowfall.html

Heavy snowfall blanketed South Korea for a second consecutive day Thursday, resulting in three deaths overall and disrupting flights and ferry services, authorities said.

The second day of snow came after Seoul on Wednesday recorded its heaviest November snowfall since records began over a century ago, according to the country's weather agency. The record snowfall also marked the capital's first snow of the season.

Up to 40 centimeters of snow accumulated in parts of the capital by 11 am (GMT 0200), the interior ministry said, while other areas outside Seoul saw snow piles reaching nearly 45 centimeters.
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3840 on: December 02, 2024, 06:51:25 PM »
I-90 reopens in New York after lake-effect snowstorm dumps more than 5 feet of snow across Great Lakes
https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/01/us/lake-effect-snow-weather-thanksgiving-weekend/index.html

The impacts from the historic lake-effect snowstorm have been far-reaching, not only because of the sheer amount of snow that fell but also because of the intense snowfall rates reaching up to 4 inches per hour, which overwhelmed crews who were relentlessly working around the clock to remove the snow and ice from roads and highways such as the heavily traveled Interstate 90 from New York state to Ohio.

More than 5 feet of snow fell on parts of western New York the last few days, according to the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center, with some places exceeding the 4-foot mark Sunday. Barnes Corners, New York, saw 65.5 inches (1664 mm) – over 5 feet – by Monday morning, according to the weather service.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

kiwichick16

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kassy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3842 on: December 03, 2024, 07:13:06 PM »
Quote
The country's mean temperature in spring was estimated at 2.08 degrees Celsius above the baseline 1961–1990 average, which equates to a temperature around 2.5C above pre-industrial levels.

...

This is only the second time the 2.5C barrier has been breached for an entire season, going back to 1910 when reliable national averages were first available.

While spring 2024 was only 0.05C warmer than the old record of +2.03C from 2020, it was at least 1C warmer than any spring from last century — an indication of the climate acceleration during the past few decades.

Drop the coal!  ;)
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morganism

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3843 on: December 18, 2024, 07:35:17 PM »
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