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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 767879 times)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2050 on: April 15, 2018, 07:16:53 AM »
Re the much quoted
Quote
"the impact is especially outsized due to the amount of solar radiation reflected at 19.82N, and the lack of other "weather-generating" geographic features between the West Coast, Hawaii, and Asia."

I think Shared Humanity is attempting to explain that the major 'weather-generating geographic feature' between North America and Asia is the Pacific Ocean.  The central Pacific Ocean is well studied as to its influence on ENSO fluctuation, for example.

There may be a definition-of-terms issue here.  Geographic features can be landforms or bodies of water (example reference).
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2051 on: April 15, 2018, 07:18:49 AM »
Re the much quoted
Quote
"the impact is especially outsized due to the amount of solar radiation reflected at 19.82N, and the lack of other "weather-generating" geographic features between the West Coast, Hawaii, and Asia."

I think Shared Humanity is attempting to explain that the major 'weather-generating geographic feature' between North America and Asia is the Pacific Ocean.  The central Pacific Ocean is well studied as to its influence on ENSO fluctuation, for example.

There may be a definition-of-terms issue here.  Geographic features can be landforms or bodies of water (example reference).

I think it is just ignorance:


And trust me, whether covered or barren of snow, Hawaii has an imperceptible impact on the weather of the planet


If you think a partially snow-covered island that rises 13,000' at 19N in the middle of an enormous ocean does NOT have outsized impact on WX you are delusional or stupid.

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2052 on: April 15, 2018, 08:14:58 AM »
ON TOPIC

https://files.dnr.state.mn.us/natural_resources/climate/twin_cities/april_msp_rank.html

The coldest April in MSP history is 1874 (35.8 degrees F).

MSP was at 28.2 through the 13th, and the 14th pulled a -20F departure (30/23, for 27F, avg 47F).

Through the 20th, every day is likely to average below freezing or in the 20s. I would think the monthly temp will stand somewhere around 27F come 4/20.

That leaves 10 days to either completely turnaround the departure or cement it further. The temperatures this month could literally blow away the departure from 1874. The coldest April this century has had to date has been 2013 (41.0, #14 overall). The average April temp is 47.5F.

There is more snow forecast, on top of the resurfaced snowpack which may approach 15" later today. This should ensure the anomalies either continue or worsen, at least through 4/20, and likely through 4/25 or later.

I think, if we had records going back further, it would be quite possible that April 2018 is the coldest April these regions have seen since 1816, if not longer...

It is also now the snowiest April on record for MSP... 20.4" as of midnight for the month with snow falling, old record was 21.8" in 1983. Should push 30"+ by 4/30.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2018, 08:24:23 AM by bbr2314 »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2053 on: April 15, 2018, 08:33:27 AM »
bbr,
I may not understand what you mean by "outsized impact". 

I'm sure the impact of the Pacific Ocean (160 million km2) on ENSO which affects world weather quite demonstrably is much much greater than the impact of Hawaiian islands/mountains on world weather.  However, the affect 'per square meter' the island of Hawaii (with its two 4,000"+ meter mountains on a 10,400 km2 island) has on down-wind weather is very likely to be outsized  compared with any particular 20,000 km2 piece of Pacific Ocean.  (So, yes, outsized.)  But Hawaii's effect on the Pineapple Express is apparently insignificant, considering what a  Wikipedia article says.

The albedo consequences of some seasonal snow that mostly lasts only a few days on some peaks (probably covering 10s of km2) will be nothing compared with over-the-ocean clouds covering millions of km2.
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2054 on: April 15, 2018, 08:51:17 AM »
bbr,
I may not understand what you mean by "outsized impact". 

I'm sure the impact of the Pacific Ocean (160 million km2) on ENSO which affects world weather quite demonstrably is much much greater than the impact of Hawaiian islands/mountains on world weather.  However, the affect 'per square meter' the island of Hawaii (with its two 4,000"+ meter mountains on a 10,400 km2 island) has on down-wind weather is very likely to be outsized  compared with any particular 20,000 km2 piece of Pacific Ocean.  (So, yes, outsized.)  But Hawaii's effect on the Pineapple Express is apparently insignificant, considering what a  Wikipedia article says.

The albedo consequences of some seasonal snow that mostly lasts only a few days on some peaks (probably covering 10s of km2) will be nothing compared with over-the-ocean clouds covering millions of km2.



I think it is pretty obvious...

If you take a blow dryer and point it over water, the wind blows. Now stick a mountain in the middle of the path over water. The wind will diverge on both sides. The impact/effects are multiplied when the mountain(s) are snow-covered.

anthropocene

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2055 on: April 15, 2018, 06:40:00 PM »
In reply to #2047

"I think this is proof that "scientists" are idiots. Why would an event that is recurring with worse and worse frequency not be seen again in our lifetimes? Do these idiots not see the soaring CO2 #s? It is ludicrous that on the one end we are supposed to trust these nincompoops and on the other they keep parroting the doctrine that "everything is fine" when it is clearly not. "

Normally I let the non-scientific comments go -  most of us are amateurs here after all. But when it includes unsupported attacks on scientists then this becomes more difficult. The event is not recurring with worse and worse frequency. What was discussed was a specific setup which causes a spike in temperatures. In this case the noise swamps the signal of climate change (for the time being anyway - I guess at some point in the future this will not be the case) Judging by the temperatures below (NZ summer temp graph taken from the article at: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12028417 ) this will not be soon. Also the article explicitly states that the unusual setup is connected to La Nina. Since I understand that El Nino will increase in frequency and amplitude due to global warming I assume that La Nina will reduce in frequency. So if anything this unusual setup will happen less frequently.
I agree that everything is not fine and many events are caused by climate change: Not all events are - this looks to be a case when it is not. 

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2056 on: April 15, 2018, 11:37:06 PM »
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Historic winter storm brought 15 to 30 inches of snow with locally
higher amounts possible (near Tigerton in Shawano County?). This
storm will go down in the record books as the largest April
snowstorm on record and more than likely one of the largest of
all-time at Green Bay, Rhinelander and Wausau. As of 1 pm, Green
Bay recorded 20.6 inches of snow. This eclipses the old April
snowstorm record of 11.0 inches set on April 4-5, 1977. The 20.6
inches of snow also makes it the third largest snowstorm on
record behind 29.0 inches set on March 1-2, 1888 and the 23.1
inches set on January 8-9, 1889. At least an inch or two has
fallen since 1 pm, thus when the official observation is taken at
7 pm tonight this could become the 2nd largest snowstorm on record
at Green Bay. Stay tuned! As you can imagine, the monthly April
snowfall records at Green Bay, Rhinelander and Wausau have been
shattered.

To put this in perspective, Green Bay received 31.4 inches of
snow from October 1st to March 31st. As of 1 pm today, Green Bay
received 33.1 inches for the month of April or more than half the
winter snowfall.

TerryM

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2057 on: April 16, 2018, 12:11:41 AM »
The freezing rain makes interesting patterns on my 16th floor windows. Where did my spring go?


Terry - Cambridge, Ontario,Canada

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2058 on: April 16, 2018, 01:00:06 AM »
The freezing rain makes interesting patterns on my 16th floor windows. Where did my spring go?


Terry - Cambridge, Ontario,Canada

"Where did my spring go?" ---> My place - and I deserve that ;) - being a bit more north then you are.
(Just saw that record lowl temp for Cambridge is -35.6 C.  My "south" there do not means what it means here. Brr.
43°22′N translates here even more south then Makarska (at Adriatic coast), Croatia.)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2059 on: April 16, 2018, 01:12:21 AM »
“Check out the MASSIVE weather maker across the Eastern Canada/ US. It extends all the way down to Central America! ”
    https://twitter.com/IreneSans/status/985654743732228099
Image below
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2060 on: April 16, 2018, 01:15:59 AM »
North Carolina.  Tornado confirmed by NWS.

“I still can't believe this happened. Debris from destroyed homes just fell from the sky on our apartment complex in south Reidsville, N.C. We're okay here.

Thoughts with everyone affected. I hope beyond hope they're all safe and recover quickly.”
https://twitter.com/wxdam/status/985637496154460160
Images at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2061 on: April 16, 2018, 01:21:20 AM »
“This could do some damage to some plants that have begun emerging being below freezing that long this time of year. ”
https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/985652656910848000

Minneapolis has been below freezing since Friday evening.  Currently 27ºF and snow (wind chill 16ºF) = record low maximum temperature set (records go back to 1872) ”
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/985651906361118720
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2062 on: April 16, 2018, 02:58:54 AM »
More of the noteworthy weather happening in U.S. today:

Lynchburg, Virginia.  Tornado.
A tornado just touched down in Lynchburg! This is the Med Express on Timberlake Rd.
https://twitter.com/WhitneyOnAir/status/985667699861786627
Images at the link.

Greensboro, North Carolina.  Tornado.
Pictures of damage near Avalon Road in Greensboro. First photo is above Hampton Elementary School.  #skyview8 : @chris8video @myfox8
https://twitter.com/AleksBushNews/status/985666579445796864
Images at the link.


Green Bay, Wisconsin.  Record snow.
As of 4 PM, the official storm total here at the office was 23.2". This is now the All-Time 2nd Largest Snowstorm in Green Bay! #wiwx
https://twitter.com/NWSGreenBay/status/985628995344588800


Seattle, Washington.  Record rain.
Heavy rain propels Seattle to 4th-wettest April day on record
http://www.seattleweatherblog.com/rain/heavy-rain-propels-seattle-4th-wettest-april-day


See also:  over two feet (600 mm) of rain in Hawaii
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg150336.html#msg150336
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2063 on: April 16, 2018, 03:22:22 AM »
And more:

Duluth, Minnesota.  Record snow.
“NEW RECORD for Duluth. So far we are at 10" of snow @NWSduluth for 4/15. This breaks the previous record of 9.7" set in 1961. This is the 4th highest single day snowfall for the month of April. The highest is 12.1" set on April 3rd, 2007. #mnwx”
https://twitter.com/NWSduluth/status/985684181983420416


Oklahoma wildfires; “critical fire weather” across multiple states:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1368.msg150347.html#msg150347


Edit: more:
“The 14.9" at Minneapolis/St. Paul sets a new record for the largest April snowstorm on record #mnwx”
https://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/status/985679204950962176
« Last Edit: April 16, 2018, 04:27:27 AM by Sigmetnow »
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2064 on: April 16, 2018, 04:04:52 AM »
Top 10 April TOTAL snowfall amounts in Green Bay, WI. They have 23"... AND COUNTING... from the current event. !?!??!!?!?!

1. 35.7", 2018
2. 15.1", 1907
3. 12.7", 1910
4. 12.5", 1923
5. 12.2", 1929
6. 11.8", 1977
7. 11.0", 1928
8. 10.9", 1904 and 2011
10. 10.0", 1996


MPS is now #1 Jan-Apr snow total


Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2065 on: April 16, 2018, 06:29:39 AM »
The freezing rain makes interesting patterns on my 16th floor windows. Where did my spring go?


Terry - Cambridge, Ontario,Canada

"Where did my spring go?" ---> My place - and I deserve that ;) - being a bit more north then you are.
(Just saw that record lowl temp for Cambridge is -35.6 C.  My "south" there do not means what it means here. Brr.
43°22′N translates here even more south then Makarska (at Adriatic coast), Croatia.)
And here, no snow from ~60°N (roughly that hump on this countrys backside that houses Stockholm) and southwards, which makes most dwellers here happy since few(er) live above that line.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2066 on: April 16, 2018, 03:47:40 PM »
Quote
The multi-day blizzard that has been blasting the north-central United States since Friday has dumped 23.7 inches of snow in Green Bay, Wisconsin, as of 1 a.m. CDT Monday. Double-digit storm total snowfall amounts are common from South Dakota to Wisconsin:  https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/photos-minneapolis-endures-second-snowiest-april-day-as-blizzard-rages/70004683
https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/985770033908539393
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2067 on: April 16, 2018, 03:50:05 PM »
D.C./Virginia radar during the storm last night.

“leading edge of rain with low level jet meeting the surface easterlies....cool stuff! ”
   https://twitter.com/hbwx/status/985751612558802944
Image below.
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2068 on: April 16, 2018, 05:33:20 PM »
D.C./Virginia radar during the storm last night.

“leading edge of rain with low level jet meeting the surface easterlies....cool stuff! ”
   https://twitter.com/hbwx/status/985751612558802944
Image below.
That was over my head and it was certainly roaring for a good 2 minutes.

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2069 on: April 16, 2018, 05:49:18 PM »
April 1-15 mean average temperature vs records... the differential on some of these is bonkers

Alpena, MI: 2nd coldest on record at 28.0˚ (#1 is 27.6˚ in 1923)

Chicago, IL: 4th coldest on record at 36.5˚ (#1 is 33.0˚ in 1881)

Des Moines, IA: 2nd coldest on record at 36.7˚ (#1 is 30.7˚ in 1881)

Dubuque, IA: coldest on record at 31.1˚ (#2 is 33.3˚ in 1975)

Duluth, MN: tied coldest on record at 24.2˚ (with 1950)

Flint, MI: 2nd coldest on record at 34.5˚ (#1 is 31.9˚ in 1975)

Grand Rapids, MI: 3rd coldest on record at 34.4˚ (#1 is 31.4˚ in 1975)

Green Bay, WI: coldest on record at 28.8˚ (#2 is 30.5˚ in 1923)

La Crosse, WI: coldest on record at 31.7˚ (#2 is 33.4˚ in 1881)

Madison, WI: 2nd coldest on record at 31.1˚ (#1 is 30.1˚ in 1881)

Marquette, MI: coldest on record at 21.8˚ (#2 is 24.3˚ in 1881)

Milwaukee, WI: 6th coldest on record at 34.4˚ (#1 is 30.7˚ in 1881)

Minneapolis, MN: coldest on record at 27.8˚ (#2 is 30.7˚ in 1920)

Moline, IL: 3rd coldest on record at 36.9˚ (#1 is 33.4˚ in 1881)

Peoria, IL: 5th coldest on record at 39.6˚ (#1 is 37.1˚ in 1926)

Rockford, IL: coldest on record at 34.2˚ (#2 is 34.7˚ in 1975)

South Bend, IN: 6th coldest on record at 37.0˚ (#1 is 35.7˚ in 1907)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2070 on: April 17, 2018, 12:05:28 AM »
“Pouring rain and flash flooding in Manhattan turns subway stairs into waterfalls, potentially making the commute home difficult for a lot of New Yorkers.”
   https://twitter.com/ABC/status/985943703213760513
Video at the link above, and also below:

Northeast pummeled by rough rain as Southeast recovers from devastating tornadoes
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/deadly-spring-storm-moving-northeast-leveling-homes-southeast/story?id=54495292
Article, photos, videos.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2071 on: April 17, 2018, 12:52:40 AM »
“Looking on the southern coast of the Mediterranean: enormous hail accumulations - looks ~20 cm [~8 inches] thick - in Tazoult, Bata, NE Algeria two days ago, April 14. Report by our partners Météo Algérie طقس الجزائر “
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/985945836000563201
Images below.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2072 on: April 17, 2018, 08:59:16 PM »
April 1-15 mean average temperature vs records... the differential on some of these is bonkers

Alpena, MI: 2nd coldest on record at 28.0˚ (#1 is 27.6˚ in 1923)

Chicago, IL: 4th coldest on record at 36.5˚ (#1 is 33.0˚ in 1881)

Des Moines, IA: 2nd coldest on record at 36.7˚ (#1 is 30.7˚ in 1881)

Dubuque, IA: coldest on record at 31.1˚ (#2 is 33.3˚ in 1975)

Duluth, MN: tied coldest on record at 24.2˚ (with 1950)

Flint, MI: 2nd coldest on record at 34.5˚ (#1 is 31.9˚ in 1975)

Grand Rapids, MI: 3rd coldest on record at 34.4˚ (#1 is 31.4˚ in 1975)

Green Bay, WI: coldest on record at 28.8˚ (#2 is 30.5˚ in 1923)

La Crosse, WI: coldest on record at 31.7˚ (#2 is 33.4˚ in 1881)

Madison, WI: 2nd coldest on record at 31.1˚ (#1 is 30.1˚ in 1881)

Marquette, MI: coldest on record at 21.8˚ (#2 is 24.3˚ in 1881)

Milwaukee, WI: 6th coldest on record at 34.4˚ (#1 is 30.7˚ in 1881)

Minneapolis, MN: coldest on record at 27.8˚ (#2 is 30.7˚ in 1920)

Moline, IL: 3rd coldest on record at 36.9˚ (#1 is 33.4˚ in 1881)

Peoria, IL: 5th coldest on record at 39.6˚ (#1 is 37.1˚ in 1926)

Rockford, IL: coldest on record at 34.2˚ (#2 is 34.7˚ in 1975)

South Bend, IN: 6th coldest on record at 37.0˚ (#1 is 35.7˚ in 1907)

This weather event is certainly one for the record books but when we look at U.S. records, whether daily, weekly, monthly or yearly, we are setting far more record maximums than record minimums. This trend will continue as the planet warms.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2073 on: April 17, 2018, 09:08:44 PM »
Decided to look at the last 30 days in Wisconsin here...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records

and it certainly has been a wild, quite cold month.

Since March 15, there have been 141 new lowest min temp records set. There have been an additional 64 lowest max temp records set. In that same period, there have been zero highest max or highest min temp records set.

Remarkable.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2074 on: April 17, 2018, 09:32:38 PM »
When you look at other months for Wisconsin here...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records

...the picture is more of a mixed bag.

January:

Highest Max Temps: 37 new records
Highest Min Temps: 68 new records
Lowest Max Temps: 36 new records
Lowest Min Temps: 2 new records

February:

Highest Max Temps: 26 new records
Highest Min Temps: 9 new records
Lowest Max Temps: 0 new records
Lowest Min Temps: 1 new record

March:

Highest Max Temps: 1 new record
Highest Min Temps: 5 new records
Lowest Max Temps: 3 new records
Lowest Min Temps: 0 new records

April 1 thru 14:

Highest Max Temps: 0 new records
Highest Min Temps: 0 new records
Lowest Max Temps: 61 new records
Lowest Min Temps: 146 new records

The 1st 2 weeks of April are remarkable but the months leading up to these 2 weeks suggest a generally warmer than average winter.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2075 on: April 17, 2018, 09:37:55 PM »
Took a quick look at November and December in Wisconsin. Won't post numbers but November looks about average while December looks colder than average if max's and min's are a good indicator.

Looks like I have a new toy.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2076 on: April 19, 2018, 12:08:46 AM »
Unsure where to post this.
Today the wife and I saw this years first robins. Two were walking about on approximately 6 inches of snow.
We mentioned this to a friend who had seen her first robin yesterday. Her's had apparently been pecking at the frozen ground in what she assumed was a desperate search for an edible worm.
It's far too cold for baby robins to survive, and I've no idea how long it takes a robin to go through the whole nest building, mating and hatching sequence.
I do fear that these harbingers of spring have found themselves in a very inhospitable place to survive, let alone to hatch and raise this year's brood.
Terry

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2077 on: April 19, 2018, 12:21:41 AM »
Unsure where to post this.
Today the wife and I saw this years first robins. Two were walking about on approximately 6 inches of snow.
We mentioned this to a friend who had seen her first robin yesterday. Her's had apparently been pecking at the frozen ground in what she assumed was a desperate search for an edible worm.
It's far too cold for baby robins to survive, and I've no idea how long it takes a robin to go through the whole nest building, mating and hatching sequence.
I do fear that these harbingers of spring have found themselves in a very inhospitable place to survive, let alone to hatch and raise this year's brood.
Terry

Please leave food out for the robins. I am hearing terrible reports about what is happening across the Midwest. They are starving and dying (deer, etc, as well). I saw a video of a turkey running down Yonge Street or whatever the main drag in Toronto is -- this is not without reason, they are starving. :(

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2078 on: April 19, 2018, 12:39:29 AM »
Unsure where to post this.
Today the wife and I saw this years first robins. Two were walking about on approximately 6 inches of snow.
We mentioned this to a friend who had seen her first robin yesterday. Her's had apparently been pecking at the frozen ground in what she assumed was a desperate search for an edible worm.
It's far too cold for baby robins to survive, and I've no idea how long it takes a robin to go through the whole nest building, mating and hatching sequence.
I do fear that these harbingers of spring have found themselves in a very inhospitable place to survive, let alone to hatch and raise this year's brood.
Terry

Please leave food out for the robins. I am hearing terrible reports about what is happening across the Midwest. They are starving and dying (deer, etc, as well). I saw a video of a turkey running down Yonge Street or whatever the main drag in Toronto is -- this is not without reason, they are starving. :(

Fresh fruit such as apples and berries are good food sources for robins. Until they freeze solid!

Alexander555

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2079 on: April 19, 2018, 07:35:18 PM »
India is burning, + 40 degree C. That's like 4 or 5 degree C above the maximum average for that time of the year. And this are the warmest months, April and May. That will probably have an impact on their infrastructure. And these sea's left and right from India are getting warmer than other sea's at that distance from the equator. Maybe they are missing some  ocean current. That will put them on the hook to get hit harder by climate change than many other countries.

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2080 on: April 19, 2018, 07:44:47 PM »
India is burning, + 40 degree C. That's like 4 or 5 degree C above the maximum average for that time of the year. And this are the warmest months, April and May. That will probably have an impact on their infrastructure. And these sea's left and right from India are getting warmer than other sea's at that distance from the equator. Maybe they are missing some  ocean current. That will put them on the hook to get hit harder by climate change than many other countries.
I think this agrees with the D10 forecast and portends a catastrophic May melt situation across the Chukchi and Beaufort. And possibly the ESS. That heat is going to resolve in the ice ^^^. The problem is the amount of ice this year in those regions is extremely low.

gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2081 on: April 19, 2018, 08:43:36 PM »
California has had rain and snow. No-one seems to have told the California Drought Monitor.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2082 on: April 19, 2018, 10:19:13 PM »
California has had rain and snow. No-one seems to have told the California Drought Monitor.

Actually think that map is an improvement.

Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2083 on: April 21, 2018, 10:22:23 AM »
Snow depth and temp anomalies for the last week. Bye, bye snow, embrace flooding.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2084 on: April 21, 2018, 10:36:33 AM »
https://www.wunderground.com/news/2018-04-19-may-july-temperature-outlook?cm_ven=hp-slot-1

The link is to the 3 month forecast of US weather from wunderground.com. Being a 3 month forecast it may well be regarded as an anecdotal story.

Maps below:- note that the weather stops at Trump's Wall in the South, and the 49th parallel in the North.
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Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2085 on: April 22, 2018, 07:14:04 AM »
Continuing on post #2100.

So, the latest spring for middle Sweden in a hundred years according to Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (meteorological spring did arrive on February 21 in the southernmost parts...) is followed by a record early summer. Only once has summer arrived earlier than April 17 in Stockholm in 1803 and it has arrived on the same date on two occasisons, in 1964 and 1996. The earliest and highest recorded temperature ever, was recorded in Oskarshamn on Friday, with 27.2°C.

No wonder we have weather warnings like this. Risk for grass fires in the south, class 2 and class 1 flood warnings north of those. Reports of sinkholes due to flooding and at least one road has collapsed in Dalarna.

Not much more than weird though. This is also, by far and the latest ever, that I put summer tyres on my earth destroying ECO friendly diesel. But there will be no ice age, just more extremes, in line with increased entropy.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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TerryM

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2086 on: April 23, 2018, 09:11:10 AM »
For whatever it's worth.
We lost our unusually late snow here in Cambridge yesterday. Nothing but a few well shaded vestiges where plows had left their loads in the shadows of large structures.
No floods now as winter's snow had melted out some time ago, this last bit had been from the unseasonable spring snow flurries.
Terry, Cambridge Ont. Can.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2087 on: April 23, 2018, 08:29:51 PM »
Paris just had 5 straight days of 80-degree (27+°C) weather in April, unprecedented in weather records dating back to 1874. ”
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/988457503439708160
Details (in French) at the link.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2088 on: April 25, 2018, 12:15:24 AM »
From above, it looks like a wintry scene at Irkutsk today, with frozen Lake Baikal to the southeast. However the temperature there today maxed at an impressive 27.9 C.

Not quite an April record. 29.2 C was achieved in April 1899.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 12:22:49 AM by Niall Dollard »

Alexander555

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2089 on: April 25, 2018, 09:30:02 PM »
Plenty of high anomalies. Last week we had an entire week of 14 degree C above the average maximum. The week before some places in Japan had 30 degree C. And next week it's going to be Russia, almost 27 degree C in Moscow. That's like 15 degree C above the maximum average.

ivica

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2090 on: April 26, 2018, 07:27:38 AM »
The freezing rain makes interesting patterns on my 16th floor windows. Where did my spring go?


Terry - Cambridge, Ontario,Canada

"Where did my spring go?" ---> My place - and I deserve that ;) - being a bit more north then you are.
(Just saw that record lowl temp for Cambridge is -35.6 C.  My "south" there do not means what it means here. Brr.
43°22′N translates here even more south then Makarska (at Adriatic coast), Croatia.)

Your spring + my spring = a summer
too hot too early
take your spring back, please!

charles_oil

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2091 on: April 27, 2018, 01:02:26 PM »

Ok .... so Britain is famed for wet weather.. looks like its getting wetter and more extreme in the North (high rate of precipitation).  I'd be tempted to blame Brexit - but who knows....


Study by Met Office:  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/rainfall-changes-for-northern-britain
27 April 2018
A scientific study has given an initial view of potentially significant changes in rainfall patterns across northern England and Scotland by 2100.
An experimental approach using the Met Office Unified Model with a resolution of 1.5km provides a first look at changes in rainfall that could affect Scotland and northern England in both summer and winter several decades into the future. The 1.5km model allows us to look at changes in hourly rainfall at kilometre scales, not captured by traditional climate models.
The study ― published in the journal Climate Dynamics ― showed that during winter daily average rainfall would increase at the end of the 21ˢᵗ Century for most parts of northern Britain, assuming a pathway leading to high greenhouse gas emissions ―.the so-called: RCP8.5 pathway.
In contrast, summer daily average rainfall is projected to see large decreases across northern Britain, with many areas ― including the Central belt of Scotland ― experiencing a reduction of 25―50%.
However, rainfall events in both summer and winter are likely to become more extreme. So-called high-intensity events, with rainfall of 10mm or more per hour are projected to become more frequent, while lower-intensity events are projected to become less frequent.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2092 on: May 04, 2018, 12:57:18 PM »
Pakistan May Have Just Set a World Heat Record
Quote
Temperatures reported to have cracked 50.2 degrees Celsius (122.3 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday in Nawabshah, located about 127 miles northeast of Karachi. If confirmed, that could make the measurement not just the hottest ever recorded for April in Pakistan, but the hottest ever reliably recorded for April anywhere on Earth.

“There was a 51.0°C reading reported from Santa Rosa, Mexico in April 2011 but this figure is considered of dubious reliability, so yes, the 50.2° reading is likely the hottest April temperature yet reliably observed on Earth in modern records,” Chris Burt, a weather historian, told Earther in an email. ...
https://earther.com/pakistan-may-have-just-set-a-world-heat-record-1825690035
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2093 on: May 14, 2018, 01:12:37 PM »
STORMS IN INDIA

I know it's absolutely forbidden to say any particular events are caused by climate change but do the dust and thunder storms happening in India have any CC connection.

https://qz.com/1276822/extreme-weather-thunderstorms-and-dust-storms-in-india-killed-at-least-41-people-in-a-day/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2094 on: May 16, 2018, 04:19:27 PM »
Line of severe weather (heavy rain, hail, thunderstorms) last evening affected northeast U.S. from Boston/New England to Norfolk, Virginia.  Also, offshore:

“Storms that moved across the area yesterday ended up creating a meteotsunami across the Mid-Atlantic & up into the SNE coastline. You can see the meteotsunami in the water fluctuations from area tidal gauges, esp in the New Haven gauge. Learn more here: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/meteotsunami.html

https://twitter.com/nwsboston/status/996676909013618688
Image below.  More at  @NWSBoston


Edit:  “Last night's storm, as seen by GOES-16.  Visible imagery sandwiched with Infrared until sunset. No wonder Frederick MD got slammed as two systems merged and stalled. @capitalweather ”
https://twitter.com/StatPat/status/996759529156202496
Visually striking radar GIF at the link.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2018, 09:25:15 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2095 on: May 16, 2018, 04:25:49 PM »
Houston, Texas

“Oh boy. We typically don't get our first 96° [35.6° C] day until JUNE 17th.
This is a month ahead of schedule.”
https://twitter.com/TravisABC13/status/996754238784114689
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2096 on: May 16, 2018, 04:47:16 PM »
Houston, Texas

“Oh boy. We typically don't get our first 96° [35.6° C] day until JUNE 17th.
This is a month ahead of schedule.”
https://twitter.com/TravisABC13/status/996754238784114689

So I get that Houston is 10 degrees warmer than normal and that normally this temperature doesn't occur for another month but isn't this just called weather?

Now, if they have their 4th year in a row, 1 in 500 year, rain event, that is weird weather.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2097 on: May 16, 2018, 04:52:56 PM »
Houston, Texas

“Oh boy. We typically don't get our first 96° [35.6° C] day until JUNE 17th.
This is a month ahead of schedule.”
https://twitter.com/TravisABC13/status/996754238784114689

So I get that Houston is 10 degrees warmer than normal and that normally this temperature doesn't occur for another month but isn't this just called weather?

It is clearly abnormal, and appears to be an “anecdotal” sign of the climate change expected in Texas.

Edit:  With a “Feels Like” temperature already over 100° before noon, that’s a physiological threat event, happening a month earlier than people are accustomed to.  Also, there are air quality alerts in effect.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2018, 06:06:49 PM by Sigmetnow »
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mitch

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2098 on: May 16, 2018, 06:16:39 PM »
Here is one of the best graphics out of anywhere in the US to show climate vs weather. It shows the seasonal cycle, the averages, and the current year's temperature/precipitation. It is out of College Station TX, not Houston, but close enough.
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_cll

So far this year, the temperatures are running near average. It is not nearly as bad as 2011/2012.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2099 on: May 16, 2018, 09:39:18 PM »
Here is one of the best graphics out of anywhere in the US to show climate vs weather. It shows the seasonal cycle, the averages, and the current year's temperature/precipitation. It is out of College Station TX, not Houston, but close enough.
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_cll

So far this year, the temperatures are running near average. It is not nearly as bad as 2011/2012.

The future differs from the past.... ;)
Quote
Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
401 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>438-170915-
Austin-Brazoria Islands-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Grimes-Houston-
Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Madison-Matagorda Islands-Montgomery-
Northern Liberty-Polk-San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-
Waller-Washington-Wharton-
401 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near to record high temperatures will be possible today. Because
of how early in the year this heat is occurring, residents are
urged to take precautions for heat illness.
These include taking
frequent breaks if working outdoors, wearing lightweight and
loose-fitting clothing, and drinking plenty of water.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Near to record high temperatures will be possible Thursday and
Friday. Because of how early in the year this heat is occurring,
residents are urged to take precautions for heat illness.
These
include taking frequent breaks if working outdoors, wearing
lightweight and loose-fitting clothing, and drinking plenty of
water.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.