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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 819865 times)

Alexander555

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2150 on: June 01, 2018, 06:52:46 PM »
In Sweden they are halting train traffic this weekend. Between the main cities. Because the rails are bending from heat.

https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland/in-zweden-is-het-zo-abnormaal-heet-dat-de-sporen-kromtrekken-en-treinen-dreigen-te-ontsporen~a5021e48/

Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2151 on: June 02, 2018, 08:27:20 AM »
Add closed schools due to heat, water shortages, fires and fire warnings over (almost) the entire country and many individual heat records. Just adding the records for highest monthly mean temps below, from SMHI.

Edit; Columns are Station, Month, earlier record and starting year (station).
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oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2152 on: June 02, 2018, 09:37:34 AM »
Wow.

Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2153 on: June 02, 2018, 03:10:14 PM »
Imagine when there is no ice in the Arctic during summer. It will be a different world.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2154 on: June 02, 2018, 03:11:13 PM »
That is scary when highest monthly mean records are broken by 1C to 2C!

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2155 on: June 02, 2018, 09:51:47 PM »
It is surprising (to me, at least) that many of the records are from 1889.

I would suspect that the record-setting heat in Scandinavia is already manifesting in extra continental warmth dumping into the far NATL to its north. As we head deeper into summer, this should (IMO) help pump the Gulf Stream further into the sea ice than ever before.

Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2156 on: June 03, 2018, 12:07:51 PM »
There are some question marks surrounding those older heat records, poorly documented and noone knows what kind of radiation protection was used and stuff like that.
Maybe better to look at the distribution of records over time, so here's the number of records from the three oldest temperature series in Sweden; Uppsala 1739, Lund 1753 and Stockholm 1756. First image shows heat records per decade, second cold records... Numbers from SMHI.

Edit; it already is a different world. Noone alive have seen eight meter high snow drifts in Skåne, that people had to dig tunnels through. Or the entire Baltic frozen over.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2018, 12:13:43 PM by Sleepy »
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Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2157 on: June 03, 2018, 06:26:14 PM »
Heat wave causes 3 deaths, economic boost, melting traffic lights

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/in-coahuila-the-heat-is-melting-the-traffic-signals/

Quote
Parts of Mexico continue to swelter in a record-breaking, prolonged heat wave that has caused at least three deaths, given a boost to the economy and even caused traffic lights to melt in two northern state.

What they like to call a boost to the economy:

Quote
That didn’t stop sales of cold beverages, ice creams, popsicles and other items popular during hot weather to spike to such an extent that one Mexico City business chamber estimated the economic spillover effect would be 260 million pesos (US $13 million).

 Hopefully, it never gets hot enough to damage the grid like it did in India.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2158 on: June 03, 2018, 08:17:31 PM »
Map #México showing the distribution of the... maxims recorded yesterday. Reddish hues represent values higher than 35 degrees Celsius

https://twitter.com/conagua_clima/status/1003325149049860097
Image below.  Other links at the link.



NWS Tucson, Arizona
“The hottest temperatures of the year are expected today with highs ranging 6-10 degrees above normal. Some locations will be close to or above record temperatures. If you have to be outside today drink plenty of water! #azwx”
https://twitter.com/nwstucson/status/1003238608797609985
Image below.



How long before the ‘record highs’ become the new normal?
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2159 on: June 04, 2018, 03:04:03 AM »
This should only get worse over the next week. How many years until we see mass migrations out of extremely populated regions toward Europe, China, and Russia?

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/22/asia/pakistan-heat-wave-wxc-intl/index.html

Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2160 on: June 04, 2018, 03:09:03 AM »
It could very well be backwards, or within each nation and become a problem. Everyone closing off their borders will only lead to war. The solution is to let immigrants work and pay taxes, maybe at a higher rate than citizens earners of the same pay scale.
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2161 on: June 04, 2018, 03:14:19 AM »
It could very well be backwards, or within each nation and become a problem. Everyone closing off their borders will only lead to war. The solution is to let immigrants work and pay taxes, maybe at a higher rate than citizens earners of the same pay scale.
That will not work. The movements will be too large (see: Syria). Automation is also now ongoing in the West.

I anticipate the US/Russia/China will align with a new "Iron Curtain" against the impending onslaught. Europeans will be done in by their liberalism. If the movements were more limited, it would work, but hundreds of millions of people broiling and starving simultaneously will not allow this to happen smoothly.

War is coming.

Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2162 on: June 04, 2018, 04:05:27 AM »
Yeah, that seemed like a possibility long ago. It is a MAD plan and they don't know it. That is if it is a plan at all and not merely an emergent behavior.

It would be a much better plan to cooperate and compete with each other. I'm convinced that it can be done, if the Arctic holds a few more years as expected. We can beat the aliens.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/05/how-do-aliens-solve-climate-change/561479/
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2163 on: June 04, 2018, 06:49:09 AM »
If tonight's 00z GFS is correct there will be thousands+ dead imminently.


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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2164 on: June 04, 2018, 09:23:04 AM »
Thankfully GFS has been repeatedly busting on thermodynamics outside of very short range.
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2165 on: June 04, 2018, 09:28:27 AM »
If tonight's 00z GFS is correct there will be thousands+ dead imminently.


The 00z EURO is also very hot and gets even hotter than the D3-4 period in the D8-9-10 range...

Peak short term:



And then...



Average temps in many cities this time of year range up to 105F+, with anomalies of +7-9C on top, 120F+ readings may be quite widespread.

While 500MB ridging is only impressive in the short-term, it looks like a landfalling cyclone in the Bay of Bengal should deliver major latent heat release to the NW that delivers the second episode of possible record-breaking heat.

In fact the GFS prints out a 53C(!) reading at 228 hours on the grid. That is almost 128F. There are probably 130F+ highs somewhere within.

« Last Edit: June 04, 2018, 09:33:28 AM by bbr2314 »

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2166 on: June 04, 2018, 09:35:22 AM »
Thankfully GFS has been repeatedly busting on thermodynamics outside of very short range.
Can you imagine?

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Nawabshah+Pakistan+PKXX0024:1:PK

How is a city of 1.2 million with terrible infrastructure going to cope with a forecast like this?


aperson

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2167 on: June 04, 2018, 09:36:58 AM »
Thankfully GFS has been repeatedly busting on thermodynamics outside of very short range.
Can you imagine?

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Nawabshah+Pakistan+PKXX0024:1:PK

How is a city of 1.2 million with terrible infrastructure going to cope with a forecast like this?

It's definitely worth keeping an eye on weather obs there. If these forecasts are in range at all there's going to be risk of blackouts.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2168 on: June 07, 2018, 07:03:28 AM »
The recent ice age didn't stop us from having this seasons (and our own) first strawberrys yesterday. Further south they were ripe on May 15.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2169 on: June 09, 2018, 06:20:57 AM »
I've invented a new game.  ::)
29 days of T anomalies between 20180505-20180602. Find Six Errors.
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ivica

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2170 on: June 09, 2018, 09:08:31 PM »
My locality were under estofex threat level 3 yesterday. That is the max level, happened never before. Anyway, i got nothing worth to mention - not even decent thunder/lighting which i like to observe - so i envy folks who saw it:


severe-weather.EU @severeweatherEU 4h4 hours ago: "Brutal lightning barrage over the northern Adriatic sea last night as seen from Lošinj Island, Croatia. Excellent photo by Sandro Puncet."

Nothing to envy here, severe-weather.EU @severeweatherEU 10h10 hours ago: "11 cm (!!) hailstone from yesterday's severe hailstorm over Črnomelj, Slovenia! Report: Matej Štegar"
Photo here.

Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2171 on: June 09, 2018, 11:25:11 PM »
Wow, impressive image!

We've finally had a day here without thunder and (extreme) rain. We had 25 mm the other day, causing some water issues upstream, and as a result water washing over our plot, going straight under our house and into our pond. Luckily we've built on concrete pillars, so no damage done, I think. But I need to dig some swales.
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Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2172 on: June 10, 2018, 05:49:11 AM »
Impressive image indeed. Still no rain here, no need to mowe the lawn...
Another ~30°C on todays forecast.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2173 on: June 10, 2018, 10:05:09 AM »
Hullo Sleepy,

Even the fish must be sweating by now.
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oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2174 on: June 10, 2018, 10:15:57 AM »
Hullo Sleepy,

Even the fish must be sweating by now.
Not good. This could further raise sea level.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2175 on: June 10, 2018, 10:44:40 AM »
Hullo Sleepy,

Even the fish must be sweating by now.
Hi gc, and soon dead dogs if this continues. Cyanobacteria is already on the move, both in the Baltic and in southern lakes.
https://www.osby.se/nyheter/nyheter-2018/2018/2018-06-05-osby-kommun-avrader-fran-bad-i-osbysjon.html
Image below from SMHI.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2176 on: June 10, 2018, 10:57:15 AM »
Hullo Sleepy,

Even the fish must be sweating by now.
Hi gc, and soon dead dogs if this continues. Cyanobacteria is already on the move, both in the Baltic and in southern lakes.
And dead fish?

The Baltic Dead Sea by July 1?
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2177 on: June 10, 2018, 11:02:48 AM »
Probably not.

Edit; adding 1 m subsurface water temps outside Gothenburg for May.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2018, 11:12:42 AM by Sleepy »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2178 on: June 10, 2018, 12:08:31 PM »
Probably not.

Edit; adding 1 m subsurface water temps outside Gothenburg for May.
Thanks Sleepy for pointing me to the DMI site https://www.dmi.dk/en/hav/satellitmaalinger/havtemperatur/

The anomalies spreading into the North and Irish Seas are also impressive. Cold Water fish will be moving North - if they can. E.g. the herring need shallow water to spawn e.g. Dogger Bank, but as you go North the shallow water gets scarce. Many other species require shallow cold to cool coastal waters to thrive.

Last thought - what if this is not weird weather but what to expect until the next climate /weather shift ?

I attach the 5 May DMI map to show the change in SST anomalies in the last month(pace Sleepy, I know you did it a few days ago)
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2179 on: June 10, 2018, 12:24:36 PM »
Last thought - what if this is not weird weather but what to expect until the next climate /weather shift ?
I don't follow you gc, who expected this heat wave throughout May into June?
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2180 on: June 10, 2018, 12:27:49 PM »
He means what if this is not weird anymore, but the new "normal"?

Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2181 on: June 10, 2018, 12:45:06 PM »
He means what if this is not weird anymore, but the new "normal"?
Ok, well, then we're screwed because the anomalies for May resembles those we usually see in December. Adding the May anomalies 2004-2017. Compare those to the image posted in Reply #2168.
Edit; adding May 2018 here:
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2182 on: June 10, 2018, 01:05:29 PM »
He means what if this is not weird anymore, but the new "normal"?
Ok, well, then we're screwed because the anomalies for May resembles those we usually see in December.

Hullo again, Sleepy. Sorry for being a bit vague in my post. It is Sunday, the sun is shining and my body is telling my brain - give it a rest
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2183 on: June 10, 2018, 01:54:36 PM »
No worries gc. I might be overly occupied with the wording in here sometimes and also too short in my own comments as well, sorry about that.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2184 on: June 10, 2018, 04:03:06 PM »
Volcano induced winter weather advisory for the big island in Hawaii.

Not climate related but cool none the less.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2185 on: June 15, 2018, 10:39:01 AM »
Beginning to be a bit weird here abouts. 3 weeks with almost no rain. I know this isn't much for various parts of the world, but the local plants are starting to suffer. Sporadic showering clouds have been seen but most of the region (I guess some 95%) is very dry for the season.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2186 on: June 16, 2018, 04:46:07 AM »
And where might "here abouts" be located?

Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2187 on: June 16, 2018, 05:46:02 AM »
Other side of the Big Pond, towards the Big Bear.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2188 on: June 16, 2018, 09:19:43 AM »
Beginning to be a bit weird here abouts. 3 weeks with almost no rain. I know this isn't much for various parts of the world, but the local plants are starting to suffer. Sporadic showering clouds have been seen but most of the region (I guess some 95%) is very dry for the season.

We have the same problem. Essentially no rain for six weeks in my part of NW England. It pales into insignificance in the context of the problems being faced by others around the world but, even so, it's still a bit weird. Sleepy's Scandinavian soil moisture anomaly map also shows the UK and we're in the small red blob just South of Manchester. If nothing else it validates the veracity of the satellite data.

Here's my unwatered small front lawn:

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2189 on: June 16, 2018, 03:05:18 PM »
Other side of the Big Pond, towards the Big Bear.
Me and Sleepy are almost neighbors wrt climate. Thanks for the moisture mapp. It could be they should add one category to that.
I made the mistake of mowing a part of the lawn a bit over week ago and now have to water it to keep it alive. Uncut parts are drooping and stepping on, turns yellow within a day.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2018, 03:10:52 PM by Pmt111500 »

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2190 on: June 17, 2018, 06:36:51 AM »
It's raining.  :)
My lawn looks like silkman's above so it will take more than this...
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2191 on: June 17, 2018, 09:17:01 AM »
It rained here too.... for about half an hour :)

It's a start. At least I can water our vegetables and pots with water from the butts for a day or two.

Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2192 on: June 17, 2018, 10:54:15 AM »
Let's compare the warmest May with the coldest, May 1867. First the image I posted earlier with some monthly mean records.



Then attaching Swedish stations from May 1867 below.
Also adding this link to Jantunen et al 2000.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.597.5677&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Quote
In 1867, the mean May temperature over large areas of Northern Europe was so low that anomalies of that magnitude can be expected to occur only a few times in a millennium. Cold weather conditions continued for the first half of June. On the basis of the available observational data, we reconstructed the temperature anomaly and surface pressure patterns over Europe for both months, and compared these with the distributions of other meteorological parameters. The daily synoptic situations in Northern Europe were also analyzed.

The extreme coldness of May was caused by a quasi-stationary flow pattern with high surface pressure over the Norwegian Sea and a depression over Northern Russia, bringing cold air into Northern Europe from the north and north-east. An anomalously extensive ice cover in the Arctic Ocean also contributed to the coldness. The northerly stream was sporadically strengthened by transient cyclones that travelled over Southern Scandinavia, the Baltic area or Central Russia to the east and north. The associated cold surges produced below-zero day-time temperatures at 60ºN even in mid-May.

In the first half of June, several cyclones passed over Central Scandinavia, filling over Finland and Northern Russia. The cold air stream continued to prevail, especially in Northern Scandinavia. An abrupt change in the weather type occurred around 20 June, when a warm easterly airstream spread into Northern Europe, and temperatures rose suddenly by about ten degrees.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2193 on: June 17, 2018, 11:15:28 AM »
There is no rain on the eastern shore of the Baltic sea. Saint-Petersburg is often considered pretty rainy and cloudy. The weather usually agrees. However soil is very dry today. There was only 12 mm of rain for 46 days.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2194 on: June 17, 2018, 03:30:58 PM »
Mid 90's yesterday in Chicago and the same today and tomorrow. It is not the heat that is unusual. Mid June temps will often reach this high, certainly higher than normal for the month but not unprecedented. What is odd and increasingly frequent is how short term weather forecasting misses the mark. On Friday, we were forecast to be in the mid 70's today and tomorrow. They have pushed this back to Tuesday.

Sticky weather anyone?

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2195 on: June 17, 2018, 04:27:09 PM »
Cer
Sticky weather anyone?
Only almost all of the last three years.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2196 on: June 17, 2018, 07:41:50 PM »
A US colleague just Skyped me to say he's currently unable to get home to Upper Michigan from MREA in Wisconsin:

https://www.ajc.com/news/flash-flooding-washes-out-roads-opens-sinkholes-upper-michigan/by1Q6WGknT0maSmmRuNF1K/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Pmt111500

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2197 on: June 18, 2018, 05:10:02 AM »
J..Hunt, We could have used a part of that here. Anyway a short hour of drizzle last night helps a bit. A total of less than 1mm of rain measured (the first measurable rain in 3 weeks). Of course it'll evaporate today but at least for a short time there's no dust flying on every small breeze.

sesyf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2198 on: June 18, 2018, 01:38:04 PM »
Here in Finland there has been very little rain for the last month and a half, so farmers are fearing losses... now some rain is promised, so perhaps we get 45 days of ongoing rain...

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2199 on: June 18, 2018, 03:51:41 PM »
Well Sesyf it will be make or break!

Parts of the UK/Scotland have seen a very dry period as you note ( we are first in line for anything coming off the Atlantic!) but we are now at the time period that the European Monsoon sets in (in time to blight Wimbledon and then the School holidays) so we shall see!

The models might primarily lean toward its onset but we still see H.P. dominate our weather for the next period.

I worry that low solar has some input to the H.P. dominance and if so we have another couple of years of similar and so run the risk of Inner continental Europe seeing what Russia saw in 2010 over last low solar?

Though I loathe to do it I have had to be watering via the Tap as the Butt was emptied by early May and the few sprinkles we've had have done nothing to alleviate the drought!
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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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