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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 587609 times)

Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2200 on: June 18, 2018, 05:13:45 AM »
Also had way too little water yesterday when we finally got some.
My weather station is unfortunately down but here's from one nearby...
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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sesyf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2201 on: June 18, 2018, 01:38:04 PM »
Here in Finland there has been very little rain for the last month and a half, so farmers are fearing losses... now some rain is promised, so perhaps we get 45 days of ongoing rain...

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2202 on: June 18, 2018, 03:51:41 PM »
Well Sesyf it will be make or break!

Parts of the UK/Scotland have seen a very dry period as you note ( we are first in line for anything coming off the Atlantic!) but we are now at the time period that the European Monsoon sets in (in time to blight Wimbledon and then the School holidays) so we shall see!

The models might primarily lean toward its onset but we still see H.P. dominate our weather for the next period.

I worry that low solar has some input to the H.P. dominance and if so we have another couple of years of similar and so run the risk of Inner continental Europe seeing what Russia saw in 2010 over last low solar?

Though I loathe to do it I have had to be watering via the Tap as the Butt was emptied by early May and the few sprinkles we've had have done nothing to alleviate the drought!
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Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2203 on: June 18, 2018, 05:41:16 PM »
Road destroyed by the recent floods in Michigan

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Jim Hunt

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2204 on: June 18, 2018, 06:45:24 PM »
Road destroyed by the recent floods in Michigan

My US colleague is still not home. It seems his neighbour in Hancock lost his son to the floods when a wall collapsed on him.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2205 on: June 18, 2018, 08:18:06 PM »
Warned 30 years ago, global warming ‘is in our living room’
Quote
We were warned.

On June 23, 1988, a sultry day in Washington, James Hansen told Congress and the world that global warming wasn’t approaching — it had already arrived. The testimony of the top NASA scientist, said Rice University historian Douglas Brinkley, was “the opening salvo of the age of climate change.”

Thirty years later, it’s clear that Hansen and other doomsayers were right. But the change has been so sweeping that it is easy to lose sight of effects large and small — some obvious, others less conspicuous.

Earth is noticeably hotter, the weather stormier and more extreme. Polar regions have lost billions of tons of ice; sea levels have been raised by trillions of gallons of water. Far more wildfires rage.

Over 30 years — the time period climate scientists often use in their studies in order to minimize natural weather variations — the world’s annual temperature has warmed nearly 1 degree (0.54 degrees Celsius), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And the temperature in the United States has gone up even more — nearly 1.6 degrees.

“The biggest change over the last 30 years, which is most of my life, is that we’re no longer thinking just about the future,” said Kathie Dello, a climate scientist at Oregon State University in Corvallis. “Climate change is here, it’s now and it’s hitting us hard from all sides.”
https://apnews.com/dbd81ca2a7244ea088a8208bab1c87e2/Global-warming-cooks-up-'a-different-world'-over-3-decades
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Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2206 on: June 19, 2018, 12:32:55 AM »
Jim Hunt, I'm very sad to hear that. I hope your friend can get home soon.
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John Batteen

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2207 on: June 19, 2018, 06:55:59 AM »
I am in north central South Dakota in D2 severe drought.  However we seemed to have shifted to a wetter pattern in the last 10 days or so.  Nothing to bust the drought but enough to keep it from getting worse.  Same as you etienne I had been getting no rain whatsoever to fill my collection system, so I was having to use hard well water for my plants.  It went on for many weeks, and was hot sunny windy and dry.  However lately even though the rain hasn't been all that much, it fills my tanks a little and my plants are happy.

Pmt111500

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2208 on: June 19, 2018, 08:48:03 AM »
Sorry to hear of the death... The 20% losses on crops predicted to Southern Finland might be alleviated a bit by the front passing over us now. Some species of moths are a month ahead of their regular schedule due abnormal heat. At least this front means I don't have to use communal water to keep the planted bushes alive for a couple of days.
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Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2209 on: June 19, 2018, 10:14:38 AM »
Guess what today's headlines are? Here's the origin:
https://www.smhi.se/forskning/forskningsnyheter/varmebolja-i-maj-2018-det-var-ovanligt-varmt-till-och-med-exceptionellt-1.136806
Giggle translated:
Quote
"That we should experience such a high average temperature in Stockholm in May, 16.1 degrees, statistically only happens three times in a million years, so it was unusually hot, even exceptional to what we usually experience in May," Gustav Strandberg, climate researcher at SMHI's Rossby Center. He has made a statistical analysis of one of the longest Swedish temperature series, the so-called Stockholm series, with temperature recordings from 1756.

Statistics? Into the bin...
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2210 on: June 20, 2018, 03:40:26 PM »
Jim Hunt, I'm very sad to hear that. I hope your friend can get home soon.

Thanks Archimid,

He got home via a very circuitous route yesterday afternoon. Apparently he'll need to take a very circuitous route to get out for the next few months.

He's off grid. The bottom of the batteries got a bit damp I believe, but everything is working AOK now.

I hope your own power situation is AOK as well?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2211 on: June 20, 2018, 05:00:54 PM »
Mostly normal now, thanks.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

bligh8

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2212 on: June 24, 2018, 05:47:55 PM »
About that rain event in Michigan,  in a typical suburban area when city planners build roads they raise the road surface just a bit and dig culverts on both sides of the road for rainwater run-off,  as the water flowed downhill at the next intersection there was always an underground pipe to carry the water to the next block.
The idea was that exposed surface area would be enough to absorb the normal 2-3 inches of rain over the length of the event.  Looking at the posted picture of the destroyed road one an almost envision what happened.  Michigan has had this approach for 60 yrs that I know of.

Daniel B.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2213 on: June 25, 2018, 12:03:44 AM »
About that rain event in Michigan,  in a typical suburban area when city planners build roads they raise the road surface just a bit and dig culverts on both sides of the road for rainwater run-off,  as the water flowed downhill at the next intersection there was always an underground pipe to carry the water to the next block.
The idea was that exposed surface area would be enough to absorb the normal 2-3 inches of rain over the length of the event.  Looking at the posted picture of the destroyed road one an almost envision what happened.  Michigan has had this approach for 60 yrs that I know of.

Except this did not occur in suburbia.  It was in a small town in the upper peninsula.

bligh8

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2214 on: June 25, 2018, 03:13:02 PM »
Is this what you do around here, look for new posts that may contain, from your uneducated point of view, an error in nomenclature?  How does that add to the conversation?
Houghton Michigan is a college town .. home to Michigan Tech University, I’ve a nephew who is a professor there.  I’ve been to Houghton many times, lived in Michigan
for decades.  Take your snip remarks somewhere else…understand

Daniel B.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2215 on: June 25, 2018, 04:23:32 PM »
I have lived in Michigan for the past 50+ years.  Houghton is indeed a college town.  But it is built on hills, and damage from the runoff from the storms was not related to city planning.  I do not know what your origin intent was in claiming so.  Perhaps, you prefer that inaccuracies go uncorrected.  That is fine.  But why the disparaging remarks?

ivica

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2216 on: June 27, 2018, 12:05:16 AM »
http://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/big-waterspout-outbreak-along-the-coast-of-emilia-romagna-north-italy-june-25-2018/

"A major outbreak of waterspouts happened along the coast of Emilia Romagna, north Italy, mainly near Rimini. Over 10 and likely over 15 waterspouts were reported in only about 2 hours."


Spectacular view from Gabicce Mare. Photo: Francesco Gennari.

More photos there.

ivica

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2217 on: June 27, 2018, 12:44:32 AM »
That lightning and water spouts,
I recall reports about fishes falling from the sky but I do not recall any report about cooked or fried fishes falling...  ;D

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2218 on: June 27, 2018, 09:32:36 PM »
Amazing images of the storm at the link.

Tornado injures 8 in Kansas town, part of towering, ‘jaw-dropping’ complex of storms (Photos)
Quote
A severe thunderstorm makes its way toward Wichita on Tuesday. Multiple storms erupted over south-central Kansas on Tuesday.

A tornado ripped through the town of Eureka, Kan., on Tuesday, injuring eight people. Gov. Jeff Colyer declared a state of emergency for the area because of widespread damage.

The tornado was part of a violent yet visually stunning complex of storms that left storm chasers in awe.
...
The complex of storms that spawned the Eureka twister tore through central and eastern Kansas on Tuesday, resulting in numerous instances of damaging winds and large hail, up to the size of eggs.

Storm satellite imagery showed the thunderstorm complex shooting up tens of thousands of feet into the atmosphere. ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/06/27/tornado-injures-8-in-kansas-town-part-of-towering-complex-of-storms-photos/

Below: A severe thunderstorm makes its way toward Wichita on Tuesday. Multiple storms erupted over south-central Kansas on Tuesday. (Travis Heying/The Wichita Eagle/AP)
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Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2219 on: June 28, 2018, 02:10:53 PM »
Movies can't do justice to climate change. Imagination is mostly limited by our knowledge. We have no knowledge of what a changed climate really looks like. We are heading into an Alien planet without protective gear.
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Daniel B.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2220 on: June 28, 2018, 03:32:10 PM »
Awesome cloud photo

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2221 on: June 28, 2018, 09:19:25 PM »
Think it’s hot where you live?  On Tuesday, the LOW temperature in Quriyat, Oman was 42.6 °C (108.7 °F) — a new global record.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Minimum-Temperature-426-C-1087-F-Oman-June-26-2018-New-World-Record
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Alexander555

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2223 on: June 29, 2018, 03:13:25 AM »
U.S.:  Nearly 60 million people are under some type of heat watch, warning or advisory from the National Weather Service as the worst heat wave of 2018 arrives.
More than 120 million people will see the temperature climb above 95 degrees F (35°C) during the next week.

Worst heat wave of the year grips Midwest, Northeast
Quote
Unfortunately, not everyone in these northern climates has the luxury of central air. According to the US Energy Information Administration, about 2 million household units across the Midwest do not have air-conditioning equipment.

Overnight low temperatures are expected to dip only into the upper 70s, which does not allow buildings (and their occupants) much of a chance to cool off. It is the lack of overnight cooling that has proved deadly in past Midwest heat waves.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/06/28/us/heat-wave-grips-us-wxc/index.html
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2224 on: June 29, 2018, 06:20:16 AM »
I live in Chicago...mid 90's through the weekend with high humidity...no air conditioning...will do fine.

Daniel B.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2225 on: June 29, 2018, 03:13:54 PM »
I live in Chicago...mid 90's through the weekend with high humidity...no air conditioning...will do fine.

In times gone by, we had no air conditioning to cope with 90-degree temperatures, and we coped. 

be cause

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2226 on: June 29, 2018, 04:55:22 PM »
here in Norn' Ireland I am enjoying the 3rd 30'C+ day in a row .. never before :) . Temps are @ 12'C above normal and are set to stay in the mid-twenties plus for the next 10 days at least .. even the heat crossing the USA atm will arrive on our very warm shores in a week .
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oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2227 on: June 29, 2018, 07:00:57 PM »
I live in Chicago...mid 90's through the weekend with high humidity...no air conditioning...will do fine.

In times gone by, we had no air conditioning to cope with 90-degree temperatures, and we coped.
Correct. But the caves were better insulated.  :P

anthropocene

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2228 on: June 29, 2018, 11:58:04 PM »
I live in Chicago...mid 90's through the weekend with high humidity...no air conditioning...will do fine.

In times gone by, we had no air conditioning to cope with 90-degree temperatures, and we coped.

So much either lack of appreciation of the conditions in the past or lack of empathy. How much of each I don't know - you decide. How to respond depends on what you take as "times gone by" (Time isn't split into two parts, the now and a homogeneous past ), what is meant by "we" and wha

1) Well no, on average, people wouldn't have had to cope with 90-degree temperatures so often. And on average the humidity wouldn't have been so high. Most importantly they wouldn't have had to suffer high temperatures for so long - which is the big killer - and such high temperatures at night.

2) A lot

2)

anthropocene

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2229 on: June 30, 2018, 12:28:40 AM »
I live in Chicago...mid 90's through the weekend with high humidity...no air conditioning...will do fine.

In times gone by, we had no air conditioning to cope with 90-degree temperatures, and we coped.

Sorry, pressed post too soon:

Wow so much either a lack of appreciation of the conditions in the past or lack of empathy. How much of each I don't know - you decide. How to respond depends on what you take as "times gone by" (Time isn't split into two parts, the now and a homogeneous past ), what is meant by "we" and what is meant by "coped" 

1) Well no, on average, people wouldn't have had to cope with 90-degree temperatures so often. And on average the humidity wouldn't have been so high. Most importantly they wouldn't have had to suffer high temperatures for so long - which is the big killer - and they wouldn't have had to cope with such high temperatures at night which means there is little recovery period. 

2) A lot depends on how far you go back. For this topic it is fair to take pre-industrialisation as one time period. Here people had more flexibility in work so if it was too hot they could move or do something else or do nothing.  In southern Europe they still have siestas although they are less common and shorter than previously. Stupidly, Anglo-Saxons have migrated to warm environments e.g. southern USA but not picked up this culture. Also buildings/caves etc. were cooler: Remember warmer in cold usually means cooler in heat so best location for most extremes. Thick stone walls and small windows tends to be cool.  We could design our buildings that way but it would most likely be a lot more expensive - are you willing to pay the price - both economically and aesthetically? Maybe we won't have a choice.

3)  Post-industrialisation: Well, either you succumbed to the heat, in which case they literally stepped over your lifeless body and got somebody else keen for the work. I'd like to think we place a higher value on human life now. Or you grinned and bore it - but the stress placed on the body (along with all the other stresses) meant you were lucky to make it to 50.
Even in recent  western history, in many ways it was easier to cope. A short commute walking or cycling to work. Large, cool offices - typewriters don't generate much heat. In the heat of the day, many streets would be deserted - everybody would either be at work, school or at home. Now the movement is constant, sitting in traffic jams delivering packages, take-aways etc. usually on a tight deadline and no chance for a break. 

4) of course it depends who is meant by the "we". In the past, if you were the upper-middle or higher classes then of course you could stand the heat. It's easy if you don't have to do anything or there is a servant there constantly waving a fan or providing cool drinks. And in summer they generally moved to cooler climes e.g. the Raj in India going to the foothills of the Himalayas and Russian court going to St Petersburg.  Commonly this is where we get our history from so of course, stress from heat isn't mentioned much.   

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2230 on: June 30, 2018, 01:17:38 AM »
I live in Chicago...mid 90's through the weekend with high humidity...no air conditioning...will do fine.

In times gone by, we had no air conditioning to cope with 90-degree temperatures, and we coped.

The U.S. population as a whole today skews older, poorer, fatter, and sicker (e.g., diabetes, and the cardio-vascular and renal complications thereof).  Much less able to withstand heat, both physically and economically.
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Daniel B.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2231 on: June 30, 2018, 03:27:50 AM »
I live in Chicago...mid 90's through the weekend with high humidity...no air conditioning...will do fine.

In times gone by, we had no air conditioning to cope with 90-degree temperatures, and we coped.

The U.S. population as a whole today skews older, poorer, fatter, and sicker (e.g., diabetes, and the cardio-vascular and renal complications thereof).  Much less able to withstand heat, both physically and economically.

I give you that.  But as far as times gone by, I was thinking more of pre-air conditioning 20th century.  The number of 90+ days has not changed all that much over the past century.

oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2232 on: June 30, 2018, 07:31:23 AM »
Well said anthropocene.

Susan Anderson

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2233 on: June 30, 2018, 06:00:41 PM »
In my lifetime (now 70), especially recent decades, 90+ (32C) degree days have increased considerably in the US where they normally occur. (Semantic problem: previous vs. current norms, both of which include days in 90s (and 100s (38C); now there are more of them.) Wunderground keeps track (recent one doesn't cover stats: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Denver-Matches-All-Time-High-105F-Heat-Spreads-East-Weekend), and my local weather covers trends as well.

In Boston and Princeton, we have a week of over 90  starting today (Princeton 5-10F hotter on average), being part of DelMarVa (Delaware/Maryland/Virginia) region, which used to be ocean bottom, is humid hot lowland compared to mid-New Jersey - 30 miles north - childhood home). 3-4 days is normal; a week is not. Nighttime temps are over 70 (21C) for the week; the change in nighttime temps is bigger than daytime ones.

A good friend in Yorkshire notes the ongoing drought and heat there. England is in trouble (and those wildfires near Manchester, though they've occurred before, these are bigger and harder to extinguish.

As I understand it, this year is supposed to be cooler on average after the recent El Nino, but what I'm experiencing feels like we've crossed over into a new normal.

Looking at a map, note the size of the US and variation in regions, both geographically and politically.
Quote
In terms of land mass, the United States and Europe are similar in size—the United States is 9,833,000 square kilometers while Europe is 10,180,000 square kilometers—however, European countries are closer in size to eastern states in America (which are smaller and closer together than western states)
« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 06:22:11 AM by Susan Anderson »

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2234 on: June 30, 2018, 09:04:10 PM »
I live in Chicago...mid 90's through the weekend with high humidity...no air conditioning...will do fine.

In times gone by, we had no air conditioning to cope with 90-degree temperatures, and we coped.

The U.S. population as a whole today skews older, poorer, fatter, and sicker (e.g., diabetes, and the cardio-vascular and renal complications thereof).  Much less able to withstand heat, both physically and economically.

And well stupider! Suffering 90 Fahrenheit they well deserve. What a joke. It's not even 100! No empathy here. Bring on the fucken climate change. They want to suffer. They need to suffer. What else to tell the leading science denying nation?


Wow so much either a lack of appreciation of the conditions in the past or lack of empathy.
Ha!

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2235 on: July 01, 2018, 04:33:01 PM »
Four ballplayers are removed from baseball game due to heat. All received IV's to recover.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/players-forced-to-leave-twins-cubs-game-due-to-heat-illnesses-487039061.html

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2236 on: July 02, 2018, 03:17:12 PM »
I live in Chicago...mid 90's through the weekend with high humidity...no air conditioning...will do fine.

In times gone by, we had no air conditioning to cope with 90-degree temperatures, and we coped.

The U.S. population as a whole today skews older, poorer, fatter, and sicker (e.g., diabetes, and the cardio-vascular and renal complications thereof).  Much less able to withstand heat, both physically and economically.

And well stupider! Suffering 90 Fahrenheit they well deserve. What a joke. It's not even 100! No empathy here. Bring on the fucken climate change. They want to suffer. They need to suffer. What else to tell the leading science denying nation?


Wow so much either a lack of appreciation of the conditions in the past or lack of empathy.
Ha!

According to the National Weather Service, this are the years with the most 90+ degree days in Chicago:

1988:  47
1955:  46
2012:  46
1959:  39
1952:  38
1954:  36
1964:  35
1971:  35
1944:  34
1977:  33
1987:  33
1934:  32

Only one year since the turn of the century made this list.  There were more 90+ degree days in the 1950s than the 2000s.  Even 100+ degrees were more frequent.  In the 30-year period from 1930-1959, twenty seven 100+ degrees were recorded.  In the past 30 years, there have been only 11, and none since 2012.  Considering the city tops 100 on average every 4.5 years, they are overdue.  The highest recorded temperature was 105 in 1934. 


Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2237 on: July 03, 2018, 01:07:26 AM »
Dangerous heat wave won't let up across U.S.
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Extreme heat and humidity will continue through the end of the holiday week across the eastern U.S., before it shifts westward, roasting the Midwest and Great Plains, potentially setting records and intensifying ongoing wildfires all the way to California.

Why it matters: Heat is the top weather killer in the U.S. during most years. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 600 people are killed every year due to heat-related illnesses in the U.S.
...
Historical context: The actual air temperatures during this heat wave are not smashing all-time records in most cases, since they're only 10 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit above average for this time of year. However, the combination of heat and humidity, plus the long duration of this event, make it a public health threat.

Daily high temperature records have fallen in some places, along with records for the highest overnight low temperature.  Research has shown when air temperatures fail to cool below about 80 degrees Fahrenheit overnight, the risk of heat-related illnesses, including heat stroke, increases.  On Sunday night into Monday morning, the temperature failed to drop below that 80-degree threshold in New York City and other locations along the East Coast.

What's next: The heat should peak along the East Coast on Monday, but high temperatures all week are likely to reach or exceed 90 degrees Fahrenheit from the Mid-Atlantic to New England, which may put this event in the top 10 for long duration heat events.

Meteorologists define heat waves as occurring once the temperature hits or goes above 90 degrees for at least three consecutive days. Many locations in the East are on their fourth or fifth such day as of Monday, with no relief expected until next weekend.
https://www.axios.com/dangerous-heat-wave-high-temperatures-heat-index-0984be66-9e10-4375-a781-1d82a1702af7.html
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CDN_dude

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2238 on: July 03, 2018, 01:18:53 AM »
With the humidity, we hit a high of 42 C today here in central Ontario. So much for the Great White North, eh.

S. Molnar

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2239 on: July 03, 2018, 01:49:13 AM »
Re Chicago temperatures: Before 1980, official temperatures were recorded at Midway, since 1980 at O'Hare. O'Hare is generally somewhat cooler than Midway, so pre-1980 and post-1980 temperature statistics comparisons have little value without siting adjustments.


kassy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2241 on: July 03, 2018, 05:58:42 PM »
I always hated cold so since early childhood i am obsessed with the arrival of spring (and the Romans because they actually had floor heating). In the late seventies/early eighties it used to be cold in the Netherlands in March then it usually got better towards the end of April.

It is basically like the dutch proverb: Maart roert zijn staart en april doet wat hij wil.

In the early noughties i lived near a park which was full of chickens. I loved to watch the breeding season although nature is harsh. Start at 10-12 down to 6 in a day or 2 then a couple more get lost. Then one year we had this balmy January and February was like spring. And there were little chickens. Can't remember the year but it was before 2007 when they removed the chickens due to bird flu and other scares.

Then a decade later in the winter of 2016. It was december and a really bad year for me and winter. There was a rose which i passed nearly daily. It was in full flower mode in december. There were other plants too but i often stopped there and pondered about the meaning of that rose.

None of that was possible in the early eighties...and we have not had a month below the historic temperature average since February 1985. None of my younger colleagues has ever lived in a normal climate if you take the 20th century as a baseline...

Susan Anderson

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2242 on: July 04, 2018, 01:45:50 AM »
If anyone is posting local temperatures, would they please post the actual temperatures, not the fancified "heat index" ones?  It's distorting and inconsistent.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2243 on: July 04, 2018, 04:21:15 AM »
Extreme Heat Event in Northern Siberia and the coastal Arctic Ocean This Week
Quote
This isn’t typically what I would write about in this blog, as I typically cover threatening ocean storms. However, this has implications for the Arctic Ocean and possibly mid-latitude weather. An extreme heat event for this particular region…with high temperatures of greater than 40 degrees F above recent normals…will impact the coast of the Arctic Ocean (specifically the Laptev Sea and Eastern Siberian Sea) Wednesday-Friday. This will generate maximum daily temperatures as high as 90-95 degrees near the open ocean coast!

Yes,  you read that correctly.


Needless to say, a true roasting for this area.

I’ve looked over the European model and there appears to be general agreement over the intensity and timing of this extreme event. It is absolutely incredible and really one of the most intense heat events I’ve ever seen for so far north. Climate change has sent temps skyrocketing in the far north of the planet over just the past 20 years. While that’s been quite reflected in the rapid rise in wintertime temperatures, it’s increasingly being reflected in summertime temperatures as more and more sea ice disappears earlier in the season, leaving more dark blue ocean to absorb more daytime sunlight. This heating of the ocean surface by low albedo (very low reflectivity…little sunlight being reflected back off into space) causes some heat to be released back to heat the atmosphere above, speeding up warming of the Arctic region. This is known as Arctic Amplification. And one larger-scale hemispheric consequence being actively researched by Dr. Jennifer Francis (YouTube Video Presentation) and on others is that Arctic Amplification is causing an abrupt weakening of the polar jet stream (on timescales of just the past decade or two), the main feature which steers and intensifies weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. The weakening is causing the polar jet to become much wavier, with greater wave “breaks” and blocking patterns where waves sit in the same place for weeks promote extreme weather patterns (extreme cold relative to normal as well as extreme heat, very wet, and drought conditions).

2018 has unfortunately been a prime example of global warming’s effect on the jet stream. And northern Siberia has been getting blowtorched by heat that refuses to quit because of an ongoing blocked pattern favorable for intense heat. ...
https://wxclimonews.com/2018/07/02/extreme-heat-event-in-northern-siberia-and-the-coastal-arctic-ocean-this-week/
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gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2244 on: July 04, 2018, 02:33:14 PM »
The UK has had, (after a good many years), what used to be known as a "flaming June". See table attached. This dry and hot (for us in the UK) weather is expected to continue to at least mid-July. It is all due to that high that is blocking Atlantic lows from reaching us, and sending them up the North Atlantic. (Yet more warmth to increase Atlantification of the Eastern Arctic Ocean?)

Is this another bit of evidence that due to weakening of the polar vortex, big, sloppy, long-lasting Rossby waves tend to ensure that a weather pattern once established persists (i.e. the new normal)? And as AGW continues, will in time that new normal (if it exists) be destroyed ?

From a post by AbruptSLR
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1053.msg137632.html#msg137632
Quote
Michael E. Mann et al. (2017), "Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events", Scientific Reports 7, Article number: 45242, doi:10.1038/srep45242

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep45242

Abstract: "Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2245 on: July 05, 2018, 02:29:52 AM »
Briefly: Top numbers for the current global heat wave.

By the numbers: Heat causes record-breaking temperatures across the world
https://www.axios.com/heat-wave-records-broken-this-week-temperatures-da7703e4-a99d-4a6e-9b7d-3b5ca0b4d896.html
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Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2246 on: July 05, 2018, 08:51:52 AM »
As I understand it, this year is supposed to be cooler on average after the recent El Nino, but what I'm experiencing feels like we've crossed over into a new normal.

Kevin Trenberth mentioned a possible step up in spring 2014, before the last El Nino. At the end of this interview:



The next one is brewing but no real signs of atmospheric coupling yet, so maybe next year. Doesn't matter much when it comes. What matters is what we are doing. Which is not much.  :(
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Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2247 on: July 05, 2018, 08:54:00 AM »
What else to tell the leading science denying nation?

Cronkite tried.

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Juan C. García

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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Susan Anderson

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2249 on: July 05, 2018, 04:15:40 PM »
@Sleepy. Trenberth is great, thanks.

Actually, the US and UK (and no doubt other parts of the self-privileged "first world") are reversing progress. Theresa May's government is not far behind Trump in stealing everything that isn't bolted down (to "win" and for profit) and promoting fossil uber alles. Meanwhile, the moors around Manchester are burning, and they don't have the common sense to fight it with everything they've got: a dab here, a dab there, it all doesn't add up.

Here in the US, the pace of destruction defies description. Every day in every way, we are getting worse and more oblivious. It has become fashionable to ignore reality. Meanwhile, the left is too busy squabbling to present a united front against pure evil.