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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 587652 times)

wolfpack513

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2300 on: August 04, 2018, 10:17:10 PM »
I live in Redding, CA so I would say the last 10 days meets the criteria for this thread.  The last 5-6 years have been unrelentingly warm.  Only a handful of months have been at or below normal. 

The fuels is what to focus on and its connection to a warmer climate.  Our ERC’s have been at or above seasonal peak since late June.  The long term average for seasonal peak for NorCal’s fuels is typically around Labor Day. 

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2301 on: August 04, 2018, 11:14:58 PM »
I am fairly sure this winter is going to be completely absurd (i.e., extremely cold and snowy), at least for Eastern North America. The shift to cold continents / warm Arctic since 2012 is unmistakeable undeniable and only worsening.

I got curious about WACCy results so I created this gif, ERA-I temperature difference of 1979-2000 vs 2007-2017.  (click to animate)
Can you do 2013-2018 vs 1979-2000? I think 2007 misses the "inflection point" that occurred in 2012.

sark

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2302 on: August 05, 2018, 12:15:59 AM »
I am fairly sure this winter is going to be completely absurd (i.e., extremely cold and snowy), at least for Eastern North America. The shift to cold continents / warm Arctic since 2012 is unmistakeable undeniable and only worsening.

I got curious about WACCy results so I created this gif, ERA-I temperature difference of 1979-2000 vs 2007-2017.  (click to animate)
Can you do 2013-2018 vs 1979-2000? I think 2007 misses the "inflection point" that occurred in 2012.

Here's ERA-I 1979-2000 vs 2013-2017 by month.
I am not a scientist

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2303 on: August 05, 2018, 12:37:07 AM »
Here is 2013-2017 minus 2006-2012. I think we need to bound the before and after closer to the inflection point (or what I believe to be the inflection point). If 2018 were included I would imagine the blues would be even more severe. The shift over the past decade or so has been quite incredible, IMO, and this suggests we are entering a period of catastrophic climate change and impending glaciation for Quebec.

If you check out their "climate model" the glaciation of Quebec and surrounds kicks off in FORCE between -2 and -3C vs. 1979-2000 normals. We are now well below that vs. 2006-2012 but we still have a ways to go to reach that vs. 1979-2000. The question is, will the trend since 2012 continue (I don't see why it wouldn't) and how quickly will we get to -3C vs. 1979-2000 normals if it does?

If we roll forward the results since "peak continental warming" from 2006-2012 (approx) vs. 2013+, we are already at -2C vs. those years and now cooler or neutral vs. 1979-2000. That would mean we need about another six years to get to -2C vs. 1979-2000 across the favored regions of Canada.

IF this is anywhere near accurate, we will see rapid re-glaciation begin across Quebec and the vicinity beginning in approximately 2024, and worsening rapidly through 2030. This would appear to be a close match to the changing SWE / sea ice mass balance in the Northern Hemisphere, which portends another doubling in continental accumulated SWE through 2025-2030, assuming 2018 was not a fluke (which I do not think it was).

We are seeing the mechanism behind the Younger Dryas unfold in real time which is extremely exciting, even if it means the end of most industrialized civilization...!
« Last Edit: August 05, 2018, 12:46:46 AM by bbr2314 »

oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2304 on: August 05, 2018, 12:52:34 AM »
This is not for the impending glaciation of Quebec, already discussed ad nauseum in some threads, but warm summers will prevent any snow from sticking around, regardless of how cold winter gets.
Also: whose climate model?
And: maybe there is some oscillation/variability at work?

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2305 on: August 05, 2018, 12:52:56 AM »
...and here is 2013-2017 minus 2006-2012, as well as 2013-2018 minus the same set (January to July only). YIKES!


bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2306 on: August 05, 2018, 12:53:51 AM »
This is not for the impending glaciation of Quebec, already discussed ad nauseum in some threads, but warm summers will prevent any snow from sticking around, regardless of how cold winter gets.
Also: whose climate model?
And: maybe there is some oscillation/variability at work?
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/ecm/

See link ^

I know this thread is not specifically for impending glaciation, but I would classify the map discussion as "weird weather".

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2307 on: August 05, 2018, 12:59:17 AM »
Also:

Perhaps this is another explanation for why the forests are going up in smoke?

As change accelerates, the climate models show that if regional temperatures decrease in NE Canada, the forests will actually disappear. This won't happen everywhere, but it will happen in most of the areas where fires are now raging.



-2:



-3


bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2308 on: August 05, 2018, 01:07:10 AM »
...and back to more "relatable" weird weather, talk about no bueno:



GFS keeps targeting Tokyo with ^^^


Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2309 on: August 05, 2018, 03:35:05 AM »
Here is 2013-2017 minus 2006-2012. I think we need to bound the before and after closer to the inflection point (or what I believe to be the inflection point). If 2018 were included I would imagine the blues would be even more severe.

I think you need to just keep selecting different years until you can demonstrate evidence for a conclusion you have already made.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2310 on: August 05, 2018, 03:37:04 AM »


IF this is anywhere near accurate, we will see rapid re-glaciation begin across Quebec and the vicinity beginning in approximately 2024, and worsening rapidly through 2030.

Will you please stop.

oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2311 on: August 05, 2018, 11:08:43 AM »
Here is 2013-2017 minus 2006-2012. I think we need to bound the before and after closer to the inflection point (or what I believe to be the inflection point). If 2018 were included I would imagine the blues would be even more severe. The shift over the past decade or so has been quite incredible, IMO, and this suggests we are entering a period of catastrophic climate change and impending glaciation for Quebec.

If you check out their "climate model" the glaciation of Quebec and surrounds kicks off in FORCE between -2 and -3C vs. 1979-2000 normals. We are now well below that vs. 2006-2012 but we still have a ways to go to reach that vs. 1979-2000. The question is, will the trend since 2012 continue (I don't see why it wouldn't) and how quickly will we get to -3C vs. 1979-2000 normals if it does?

If we roll forward the results since "peak continental warming" from 2006-2012 (approx) vs. 2013+, we are already at -2C vs. those years and now cooler or neutral vs. 1979-2000. That would mean we need about another six years to get to -2C vs. 1979-2000 across the favored regions of Canada.

IF this is anywhere near accurate, we will see rapid re-glaciation begin across Quebec and the vicinity beginning in approximately 2024, and worsening rapidly through 2030. This would appear to be a close match to the changing SWE / sea ice mass balance in the Northern Hemisphere, which portends another doubling in continental accumulated SWE through 2025-2030, assuming 2018 was not a fluke (which I do not think it was).

We are seeing the mechanism behind the Younger Dryas unfold in real time which is extremely exciting, even if it means the end of most industrialized civilization...!
You seriously astound me sometimes. Their "climate model"  deals with global annual temperature changes. Do you expect global annual temperature to drop? Even in famed Quebec, is the annual temperature dropping? Or just in Feb-Apr? And is this a long-term trend or just a local oscillation?
I suggest again as I have suggested before - drop this Quebec glaciation thing, it's just tarnishing your reputation and filling the forum with noise. Enough.

Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2312 on: August 05, 2018, 11:10:10 AM »
Or just say it once and then wait for 30 years to see how things play out.  ;D
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mostly_lurking

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2313 on: August 05, 2018, 11:23:12 AM »
Or just say it once and then wait for 30 years to see how things play out.  ;D

Good advice.

They were wrong :)

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2314 on: August 05, 2018, 11:41:15 AM »
Here is 2013-2017 minus 2006-2012. I think we need to bound the before and after closer to the inflection point (or what I believe to be the inflection point). If 2018 were included I would imagine the blues would be even more severe. The shift over the past decade or so has been quite incredible, IMO, and this suggests we are entering a period of catastrophic climate change and impending glaciation for Quebec.

If you check out their "climate model" the glaciation of Quebec and surrounds kicks off in FORCE between -2 and -3C vs. 1979-2000 normals. We are now well below that vs. 2006-2012 but we still have a ways to go to reach that vs. 1979-2000. The question is, will the trend since 2012 continue (I don't see why it wouldn't) and how quickly will we get to -3C vs. 1979-2000 normals if it does?

If we roll forward the results since "peak continental warming" from 2006-2012 (approx) vs. 2013+, we are already at -2C vs. those years and now cooler or neutral vs. 1979-2000. That would mean we need about another six years to get to -2C vs. 1979-2000 across the favored regions of Canada.

IF this is anywhere near accurate, we will see rapid re-glaciation begin across Quebec and the vicinity beginning in approximately 2024, and worsening rapidly through 2030. This would appear to be a close match to the changing SWE / sea ice mass balance in the Northern Hemisphere, which portends another doubling in continental accumulated SWE through 2025-2030, assuming 2018 was not a fluke (which I do not think it was).

We are seeing the mechanism behind the Younger Dryas unfold in real time which is extremely exciting, even if it means the end of most industrialized civilization...!
You seriously astound me sometimes. Their "climate model"  deals with global annual temperature changes. Do you expect global annual temperature to drop? Even in famed Quebec, is the annual temperature dropping? Or just in Feb-Apr? And is this a long-term trend or just a local oscillation?
I suggest again as I have suggested before - drop this Quebec glaciation thing, it's just tarnishing your reputation and filling the forum with noise. Enough.
You do realize the maps I posted above are indeed either annual or Jan-July (Jan-July as that is all we have for 2018 at the moment)? Why don't you refute my points with data instead of baseless hyperbole? (Its bc you are wrong and as the data explicitly shows, annual temperatures are now falling across Quebec and the Canadian Shield, with the decrease since peak warming now approaching 3-4C over Baffin Island). Foxe Basin this summer is still almost entirely ice-covered and despite the bulk of HB melting there is still very high albedo / thick ice adjacent to Quebec in its eastern reaches, btw, which is unlike any recent year in the satellite record. 2015 saw more ice survive for longer in Central HB, but it did not have this feature in eastern HB (and Foxe Basin did not survive anywhere near as well as it has this year).

Also: the global annual temp maps were not meant to be referenced GLOBALLY, as I specified in my post (again, you are not reading me correctly). I said look at Quebec and what happens in between 1979-2000 normals and temps 2-3C colder annually, a threshold we are now approaching. All the forests die / burn and re-glaciation accelerates rapidly between -2C and -3C.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2018, 12:01:51 PM by bbr2314 »

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2315 on: August 05, 2018, 11:52:48 AM »
Or just say it once and then wait for 30 years to see how things play out.  ;D

Good advice.

They were wrong :)
Of course they were wrong then. Just as they are wrong now re: AGW and RCPXXX. All you need to do is look at this year's sensible weather in many regions to see current predications are either too high in many areas (like Quebec) or too low in others (NRN Europe). The swings are turning out to be far worse than expected and not just in the positive direction.

Viggy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2316 on: August 05, 2018, 12:41:20 PM »
bbr - your methodologies are worse than the twitter climate change deniers who show inane stuff like sunspot cycle length vs global temp rise.

You just accused Oren of refuting your points with baseless hyperbole instead of data when you used monthly temperature delta between a 5 yr period and a slight earlier 6 yr period to make a completely hyperbolistic claim about Quebec re-glaciation. The burden of proof is always on the ones making insane claims (not the ones refuting it with prevalent common sense science).

Stop polluting the forums with cherry picked data to support ridiculous bs that was copy pasted from some paranoid, third eye, doomsday website.

Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2317 on: August 05, 2018, 12:51:43 PM »
bbr, how can you guarantee that in the coming years those areas - where according to you signs of glaciation are occurring - won't be heat by a massive heatwave, such as the rest of Quebec is undergoing as we speak?

How does one small area get isolated from the rest of the world, meteorologically speaking?
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2318 on: August 05, 2018, 02:10:27 PM »
bbr, how can you guarantee that in the coming years those areas - where according to you signs of glaciation are occurring - won't be heat by a massive heatwave, such as the rest of Quebec is undergoing as we speak?

How does one small area get isolated from the rest of the world, meteorologically speaking?
There are still heatwaves because snow has not reached depths sufficient to last through summer (though it is still extant in NE Quebec). When the snow melts and the adjacent sea ice is mostly gone, things can still heat up very easily.

How does one small area get isolated from the rest of the world? It is located immediately adjacent and downwind of Greenland, the only major extant ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere. As Arctic amplification has worsened, the winds have shifted to where ^^^ is persisting for much longer for more of each year. As oceanic heat content also continues accumulating, the oceanic ridges are extending farther into the Arctic and acting as more persistent "blocks" that keep continental weather more segmented (i.e., Greenland airmasses have a harder time drifting directly across the Atlantic, and instead fall into Quebec and then leak across the ATL cool pool into Western Europe and North Africa).

We have seen Greenland hold up remarkably well both in 2017 and 2018 as the increasing snowfall has overwhelmed other feedbacks to boost albedo and help the sheet retain more mass than in previous summers. This is also extending into Quebec in winter and spring, and early summer, however, we still haven't hit the threshold where snows will last into July.

As WACCY weather worsens and we end up with more persistent and stagnant patterns, localized meteorology becomes much more important, which is why Quebec is now cooling relative to its peak warming in the late 2000s / early 2010s, due to proximity to Greenland.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2018, 02:20:30 PM by bbr2314 »

Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2319 on: August 05, 2018, 02:30:25 PM »
You do realise that you base this on a very short timespan, and this is the reason you're receiving flak?
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2320 on: August 05, 2018, 02:32:37 PM »
You do realise that you base this on a very short timespan, and this is the reason you're receiving flak?
I don't mind the flak, I mind personal attacks. How quickly did the Younger Dryas occur? And how quickly did the Arctic change to substantially ice-free following 2007's summer + winter melt? What would you say if I went into the Melting Thread and said "you people are crazy, 2007 and 2012 will never be repeated, they are a very short timespan and cannot be used as reference"?

Don't you think it is somewhat absurd?

Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2321 on: August 05, 2018, 02:57:06 PM »
I think it's more absurd to harp on, on a weekly basis, about something takes place over a very long timespan, years, decades, even if it's as fast as the Younger Dryas. What's the use in that? And how do you expect people to react?

To correct your analogy: Imagine someone saying every day, there's ice north of Ellesmere Island today, the Arctic will never go ice-free.

No, you say it once and then you wait how things play out. As far as I am concerned you can come with yearly updates on this. If you can't take the 'personal' attacks when you make extraordinary claims, then this isn't the right forum for you. No harm done.
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Viggy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2322 on: August 05, 2018, 10:15:14 PM »
How does one small area get isolated from the rest of the world? It is located immediately adjacent and downwind of Greenland, the only major extant ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere. As Arctic amplification has worsened, the winds have shifted to where ^^^ is persisting for much longer for more of each year. As oceanic heat content also continues accumulating, the oceanic ridges are extending farther into the Arctic and acting as more persistent "blocks" that keep continental weather more segmented (i.e., Greenland airmasses have a harder time drifting directly across the Atlantic, and instead fall into Quebec and then leak across the ATL cool pool into Western Europe and North Africa).

I have seen you harp on a lack of data from other people and yet, you just wrote an entire piece of fan fiction with no data to back it up.

Unless you can show me that Lake Agassiz has somehow secretly been re-forming and holding back massive amount of glacial meltwater, your theory looks at an individual event without context. That's fine if you just postulated it once and waited for data (because all theories need a starting point) but to harp on it constantly as if it is an irrefutable truth that somehow the rest of the scientific community has been blind to, is frankly insulting, delusional and detracting from the actual good work being expounded on here.

Show me proof, show me comparisons, show me calculations that show the volume of fresh water required to significantly change the salinity of and slow the AMOC can be released in a sufficiently short period of time. Its the least you can do give how much time you have dedicated to this theory.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2018, 10:21:55 PM by Viggy »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2323 on: August 05, 2018, 10:36:15 PM »
He's like a bad influenza, spreading across the blog, infecting threads as he goes.

gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2324 on: August 06, 2018, 12:44:22 AM »
He's like a bad influenza, spreading across the blog, infecting threads as he goes.

But there is an awful fascination about it all - I am like a paralyzed rabbit waiting for the next outpouring of .....  " Vive Le Quebec Libre Glaciated" - that'll teach the French Canadians to shut up.
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2325 on: August 06, 2018, 01:59:02 AM »
How does one small area get isolated from the rest of the world? It is located immediately adjacent and downwind of Greenland, the only major extant ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere. As Arctic amplification has worsened, the winds have shifted to where ^^^ is persisting for much longer for more of each year. As oceanic heat content also continues accumulating, the oceanic ridges are extending farther into the Arctic and acting as more persistent "blocks" that keep continental weather more segmented (i.e., Greenland airmasses have a harder time drifting directly across the Atlantic, and instead fall into Quebec and then leak across the ATL cool pool into Western Europe and North Africa).

I have seen you harp on a lack of data from other people and yet, you just wrote an entire piece of fan fiction with no data to back it up.

Unless you can show me that Lake Agassiz has somehow secretly been re-forming and holding back massive amount of glacial meltwater, your theory looks at an individual event without context. That's fine if you just postulated it once and waited for data (because all theories need a starting point) but to harp on it constantly as if it is an irrefutable truth that somehow the rest of the scientific community has been blind to, is frankly insulting, delusional and detracting from the actual good work being expounded on here.

Show me proof, show me comparisons, show me calculations that show the volume of fresh water required to significantly change the salinity of and slow the AMOC can be released in a sufficiently short period of time. Its the least you can do give how much time you have dedicated to this theory.

We have a problem, and it is perception.

What was Lake Agassiz? A large body of freshwater formed by ice melt. We do not know how much the outpouring was, but it certainly wasn't the entire lake. 10,000KM^3 would be generous (IMO) and a sudden release of 5,000KM^3 would be more realistic, but I think this is still high.

In 2018, we saw a sudden and extreme freshwater melt pulse in late April from the accumulated SWE balance, which at that time was approximately *double* normal values for late April. This released almost 1,000KM^3 of SWE in the span of a week into the NATL.

This was followed by a stall in loss, and another spurt in mid-June, as the "protective" freshwater lens was breached, allowing another rapid decline, which was followed by severely negative SST anomalies in the NATL.

If the situation in 2018 is capable of producing anomalies of -3/-4C in the NATL, and maintaining snowcover across much of Quebec over a month past normal melt-out (well into June), what happens when we only have 25-50% more SWE in late April vs. 2018?

The nature of melt, as shown by this year's behavior, is not gradual. It happens in pulses, which when sufficiently large enough, act to protect the remaining snowcover through forcing of -SSTAs / capping oceanic heat anomalies, which are the primary source of continental warm pulses.

This, I think, is why so many here have a problem believing my posts. They do not understand that the process is not linear. In order for re-glaciation to occur, snow needs to last into July, which then allows it to continue into August / September due to decreasing solar, and the higher insolation up at 90N vs. 55-65N, and the protective freshwater lens released by melting. And as we saw this year, melt occurs in pulses, and it does not really happen gradually (except in between pulses, when it slows considerably).

This means that we need enough accumulated SWE mass to survive the June melt pulse, as well as the July melt pulse. By late July / August, if enough extant snowcover is remaining across Quebec / etc, it is feasible that the sensible weather above / around will be kept cold enough by the remaining albedo anomalies that accumulation will begin occurring *much* earlier than it has historically, which means far less SWE than what one would normally think necessary for glaciation could be sufficient for survival through and beyond solstice and into the subsequent winter.

Here is SSTA from 7/7/2018. You can clearly see the footprint of the June melt pulse (and whatever residuals came before it). I do not know if we need 500KM^3 more accumulated SWE than 2018 had for Quebec's coverage to survive into July, or if it is 1,000KM^3, but I don't think the numbers are much higher than that, because what has already occurred this spring / summer has been immensely impactful to the NATL and sensible weather across much of the Canadian shield. We still have extant snowcover across portions of NE Quebec, and Foxe Basin and NE Hudson Bay have much more ice than normal.

Does this set the stage for an even more impressive resurgence of continental SWE in 2019? I am not sure. But I think we will see a worse repeat of this year's events within the next few years, and while that may be insufficient to yield re-glaciation, the one AFTER that could be the smoking gun.

« Last Edit: August 06, 2018, 02:08:19 AM by bbr2314 »

oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2326 on: August 06, 2018, 07:04:50 AM »
We have a problem, and it is perception.

What was Lake Agassiz? A large body of freshwater formed by ice melt. We do not know how much the outpouring was, but it certainly wasn't the entire lake. 10,000KM^3 would be generous (IMO) and a sudden release of 5,000KM^3 would be more realistic, but I think this is still high.

In 2018, we saw a sudden and extreme freshwater melt pulse in late April from the accumulated SWE balance, which at that time was approximately *double* normal values for late April. This released almost 1,000KM^3 of SWE in the span of a week into the NATL.
We have a problem, and it is knowledge. what was Lake Agassiz? Why not read, for example, the following sources:
http://tsunamisociety.org/233murty.pdf
Quote
For thousands of years, the thick Laurentide Ice Sheet covered a large part of northern North America, damming northward-draining rivers. As this ice retreated, large lakes formed along its margin. Glacial Lake Agassiz was the largest of these ice-marginal lakes, covering an area of >800,000 km2 (more than twice the size of the largest lake in the modern world, the Caspian Sea) before it drained catastrophically into the Labrador Sea. Even before that, Lake Agassiz had periodically released large volumes of water into the ocean via the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence and the Athabasca-Mackenzie River systems. The last and largest of these outbursts released >150,000 km3 through Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait in 6-12 months; the average flux over that period was ~5 Sv (1 Sv = 1×106 m3 s-1).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8.2_kiloyear_event
Quote
The event may have been caused by a large meltwater pulse from the final collapse of the Laurentide Ice Sheet of northeastern North America, most likely when the glacial lakes Ojibway and Agassiz suddenly drained into the North Atlantic Ocean.[10][11][12] The same type of action produced the Missoula floods that created the Channeled scablands of the Columbia River basin. The meltwater pulse may have affected the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, reducing northward heat transport in the Atlantic and causing significant North Atlantic cooling.
...
The initial meltwater pulse caused between 0.5 and 4 m (1 ft 8 in and 13 ft 1 in) of sea-level rise. Based on estimates of lake volume and decaying ice cap size, values of 0.4–1.2 m (1 ft 4 in–3 ft 11 in) circulate. Based on sea-level data from the Mississippi Delta, the end of the Lake Agassiz–Ojibway (LAO) drainage occurred at 8.31 to 8.18 ka and ranges from 0.8 to 2.2 m. The sea-level data from the Rhine–Meuse Delta indicate a 2–4 m (6 ft 7 in–13 ft 1 in) of near-instantaneous rise at 8.54 to 8.2 ka, in addition to 'normal' post-glacial sea-level rise.

OTOH, this "melt-water pulse" of 1000 km3 from snowmelt is nothing. Some of it drains into the ground, some of it into lakes, some into various rivers draining in several directions (Mackenzie, Hudson, St. Lawrence). And you may not realize that such snowmelt and freshwater discharge occurred in much higher volumes when the Laurentide ice sheet was disintegrating, even when no lake was bursting its ice dam. It was, so to speak, an everyday occurrence.

The sad thing is that I know nothing on this subject, this all comes from Wikipedia and its sources, the easiest info available on the web.

There are lots of other holes in the info you provided, though I am getting tired of this. Your basic assumption is so wrong that I am not sure dealing with the rest is worthwhile, but:
"If the situation in 2018 is capable of producing anomalies of -3/-4C in the NATL, and maintaining snowcover across much of Quebec over a month past normal melt-out (well into June)" - why are you so certain that the snow produced all this and protected itself? Perhaps the weather was simply cold, causing the snow to last longer? Have you ever looked at a long term chart of Quebec temps, by month or annual, to check the variability?

"oceanic heat anomalies, which are the primary source of continental warm pulses" - is this true? What about just plain weather?

"if enough extant snowcover is remaining across Quebec / etc, it is feasible that the sensible weather above / around will be kept cold enough by the remaining albedo anomalies" - why can't warmth come from elsewhere? It's a huge continent.

"In order for re-glaciation to occur, snow needs to last into July, which then allows it to continue into August / September due to decreasing solar" - but Quebec is at 45-50N, and solar decreases only gently until the equinox.
"and the higher insolation up at 90N vs. 55-65N" - what's this got to do with it?

Enough. I am out of this, before I jam the forum to death.

Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2327 on: August 06, 2018, 10:02:42 AM »
There's simply no use in going on about this without future data. Next rendez-vous for talking about this long-term event (if it comes to that): September/October 2019.

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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2328 on: August 06, 2018, 11:39:12 AM »
There's simply no use in going on about this without future data. Next rendez-vous for talking about this long-term event (if it comes to that): September/October 2019.
I agree future data is important, however, I think it is incorrect for oren to say 1,000KM^3 released in a week caused "nothing" when this year had (what I am fairly sure are) the most severe NATL anomalies to date. In fact, as a result, the tropical Atlantic is also now (relatively) colder than all the other global tropical oceans than at any point in the modern record.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1025424965108035584/photo/1?

Also: I see a bunch of ignored post from Shared Humanity because there is this convenient "ignore" function if you think my posts are influenza. I am putting Oren on ignore as well because he cites Wikipedia instead of refuting through logic and intuition, and I do not have the energy to read or engage with those kinds of posts.

Pmt111500

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2329 on: August 06, 2018, 11:43:44 AM »
Just a personal note to this slot, past July was hot, so hot I went to sauna only twice during the whole month. It could be the 30+°C weather might make a dent to this pasttime hobby more widely too, it might be you could get the same health effects by slight exercise at 90+F sun, beer and a cold shower afterwards.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Viggy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2330 on: August 07, 2018, 01:10:47 AM »
I am putting Oren on ignore as well because he cites Wikipedia instead of refuting through logic and intuition, and I do not have the energy to read or engage with those kinds of posts.

Neven - I have to assume bbr2314 is trolling or intentionally disrupting sensible discussion at this point.

He repeatedly brought up the Younger Dryas as justification for his insane theories and couldn't even look up how much water was supposedly released by Lake Agassiz draining but assumed that 5000 km3 was a reasonable number when the actual number was up to 30x as much into a much lower sea level.

And instead of data and math, he wants to use 'logic and intuition'

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2331 on: August 07, 2018, 01:17:36 AM »
I am putting Oren on ignore as well because he cites Wikipedia instead of refuting through logic and intuition, and I do not have the energy to read or engage with those kinds of posts.

Neven - I have to assume bbr2314 is trolling or intentionally disrupting sensible discussion at this point.

He repeatedly brought up the Younger Dryas as justification for his insane theories and couldn't even look up how much water was supposedly released by Lake Agassiz draining but assumed that 5000 km3 was a reasonable number when the actual number was up to 30x as much into a much lower sea level.

And instead of data and math, he wants to use 'logic and intuition'
I can put you on ignore too, you only have 13 posts and you are quoting Wikipedia links, why not use The Bible instead, it is just about as useful re: impending impacts of AGW.

Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2332 on: August 07, 2018, 11:13:34 AM »
You can ignore each other as much as you like, but putting Oren on ignore is just plain stupid.

bbr2314, you can post in the appropriate thread at the end and beginning of each melting season an update on your theory and how the data is looking. I won't tolerate any more posts anywhere else, so you'll have to find some other forum for your weekly updates on something that takes decades.

Back on topic now.
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Susan Anderson

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2333 on: August 08, 2018, 06:37:45 PM »
Thanks Neven, about time.

Wikipedia is a worldwide communal encyclopedia with reams of useful information. Attacking mainstream news and information sources leaves us with, at best, niche information. I prefer the most credible and verified resources, and publicly available Wikipedia is one of the best. Of course nothing and nobody is perfect, but W makes a good shot at providing reliable information and does a superb job of it. If one wishes to go further, it provides links that can lead one to more specialist information and the means of verification for those able to follow through.

Knowledge has not yet been made extinct, and collective scientific knowledge gives us, among other things, the internet that some exploit to try to deconstruct evidence and knowledge. We are at our best when we accept community rather than trying to tear it down.

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2334 on: August 08, 2018, 06:56:28 PM »
Wikipedia is a worldwide communal encyclopedia with reams of useful information.
And now AI is writing articles for Wikipedia!

https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/8/17663544/ai-scientists-wikipedia-primer
"AI spots 40,000 prominent scientists overlooked by Wikipedia"

The software scans news stories to find overlooked figures, and even writes a draft article about them... A tool named Quicksilver programed to read some 500 million source documents, sift out the most cited figures, and then write a basic draft article about them and their work.

For example, here’s an AI-written article about Teresa Woodruff, a scientist who doesn’t have a Wikipedia entry but was named one of Time magazine’s “Most Influential Persons” in 2013. Her work includes designing 3D-printed ovaries for mice.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teresa_Woodruff
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Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2335 on: August 09, 2018, 12:07:24 AM »
This is not the Weird Wikipedia thread, so back on topic, please.
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bligh8

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2336 on: August 09, 2018, 12:59:27 PM »
Several nights past Frontier airlines was about to land a plane (older airbus) in Trenton NJ.  It was diverted to another airport without telling the parents of small children on the plane or so said the news story.  The cause of the plane being diverted was atmospheric turbulence associated with thunder storms.  Several days earlier I was on the same plane (older airbus) when they alerted the passengers while approaching  Trenton of some small turbulence ahead, the motion within plane
was quite violent, the lighting display outside was impressive……wow, there is a lot of energy in the atmosphere, not necessarily rain, just a lot of lighting and rolling thunder. We're seeing a lot of this along the coast….I imagine a good many folks are seeing this as well.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2337 on: August 18, 2018, 05:04:44 PM »
This is from 2017, studying how a “stuck” jet stream causes extreme weather events.  They use a “waveguide” explanation to explain why it happens.

Extreme weather events linked to climate change impact on the jet stream
Quote
The researchers looked at the historical atmospheric observations to document the conditions under which extreme weather patterns form and persist. These conditions occur when the jet stream, a global atmospheric wave of air that encompasses the Earth, becomes stationary and the peaks and troughs remain locked in place.

"Most stationary jet stream disturbances, however, will dissipate over time," said Mann. "Under certain circumstances the wave disturbance is effectively constrained by an atmospheric wave guide, something similar to the way a coaxial cable guides a television signal. Disturbances then cannot easily dissipate, and very large amplitude swings in the jet stream north and south can remain in place as it rounds the globe."

This constrained configuration of the jet stream is like a rollercoaster with high peaks and valleys, but only forms when there are six, seven or eight pairs of peaks and valleys surrounding the globe. The jet stream can then behave as if there is a waveguide — uncrossable barriers in the north and south — and a wave with large peaks and valleys can occur.

"If the same weather persists for weeks on end in one region, then sunny days can turn into a serious heat wave and drought, and lasting rains can lead to flooding," said Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany.
https://news.psu.edu/story/458049/2017/03/27/research/extreme-weather-events-linked-climate-change-impact-jet-stream
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2338 on: August 19, 2018, 06:42:31 PM »
This Summer Has Been Brutal. Show These 7 Images to Anyone Who Says It's Normal
AUGUST 18, 2018
The headlines of record-crushing heat in the Northern Hemisphere began in June and haven't stopped midway through August. Scores of locations on every continent north of the equator have witnessed their hottest weather in recorded history.
https://www.sciencealert.com/this-summer-has-been-brutal-and-these-7-unsettling-charts-show-why-you-should-be-concerned/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2339 on: August 22, 2018, 05:08:08 PM »
Arctic’s strongest sea ice breaks up for first time on record
Usually frozen waters open up twice this year in phenomenon scientists described as scary
Quote
The oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic has started to break up, opening waters north of Greenland that are normally frozen, even in summer.

This phenomenon – which has never been recorded before – has occurred twice this year due to warm winds and a climate-change driven heatwave in the northern hemisphere.

One meteorologist described the loss of ice as “scary”. Others said it could force scientists to revise their theories about which part of the Arctic will withstand warming the longest.

The sea off the north coast of Greenland is normally so frozen that it was referred to, until recently, as “the last ice area” because it was assumed that this would be the final northern holdout against the melting effects of a hotter planet.

But abnormal temperature spikes in February and earlier this month have left it vulnerable to winds, which have pushed the ice further away from the coast than at any time since satellite records began in the 1970s. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/21/arctics-strongest-sea-ice-breaks-up-for-first-time-on-record

For more discussion, hop over to the “The 2018 melting season” thread: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2278.msg168658.html#msg168658
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2340 on: August 23, 2018, 10:32:05 AM »
Even for a place that gets a ton of snow, this was a record-breaking two days for Erie
Quote
There's White Christmas. And then there's Whiteout Christmas.

Erie, Pennsylvania, experienced the latter on Monday, when a total of 34 inches [863mm] of snow fell on Christmas Day, blanketing the city and shattering the city's previous records for snowfall in a single day.

The snowfall total was more than four times the city's previous all-time Christmas record of 8.1 inches [206 mm], and it also broke the record for most snowfall in one day in the city's history, which was 20 inches [508mm] on November 22, 1956.

The snow didn't stop overnight, either.

Erie picked up another 24.5 inches of snow on Tuesday, bringing the two-day tally to 58.5 inches [1486 mm]. That is the highest two-day snowfall total in the entire state of Pennsylvania, according to the National Weather Service.

However, the storm, which actually began on Sunday, has dropped a grand total of 62.9 inches [1598mm] of snow on Erie, according to National Weather Service Cleveland.

By Tuesday night, 21 Pennsylvania National Guard troops were put on State Active Duty in northwestern Pennsylvania.

The huge snowfall total is a consequence of lake-effect snow, a weather phenomenon in which cold air combines with lake water to create narrow bands of powerful snow. The lake effect snow is expected to continue through Wednesday afternoon, the National Weather Service said. ...
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/26/us/erie-pennsylvania-snow-storm/index.html

Undoubtedly a lot of snow fell over Erie during Dec 2017, however the snow depth measuring was done incorrectly according to NOAA.

Erie, Pennsylvania, recorded record snowfall in December 2017, but now those records are nullified.
•Weather experts told NOAA they found serious problems with how snowfall was measured at Erie Airport.
•NOAA agreed with the experts’ recommendations and reinstated older snowfall records set in 1958 and 2010.

More here:

http://dailycaller.com/2018/08/22/noaa-lake-effect-snowfall-records/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2341 on: September 25, 2018, 02:36:21 AM »
Weather as a metaphor?

Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather)
9/24/18, 4:42 PM
In [Washington] DC, we've had overcast skies at noon this Sept 70 PERCENT OF THE TIME. This is NOT normal. The average is 27%. While there's some missing data, this year's percentage is probably a record for dark, depressing Sept days. More info: wapo.st/2OdbZvv
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1044326126586408960
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Rod

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2342 on: September 25, 2018, 05:27:20 AM »
I'm pretty sure this is a sign that Trump is preparing his army of vampires!  ☠️

PS.  I'm obviously joking, but this was too good to let pass. If I could have thought of a creative way to work it into the Russia thread I would have.  😝



oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2343 on: September 25, 2018, 11:03:57 AM »
Thanks for the link. Thr map is great.
I wish they compared to a baseline until 1970 or 1980, as global warming became pronounced afterwards.
It's also apparent that living next to the ocean can temper a lot of the global change.

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2344 on: September 26, 2018, 04:44:59 PM »
Jennifer A. Francis et al, North American weather regimes are becoming more persistent: Is Arctic amplification a factor?, Geophysical Research Letters (2018)

Abstract
Rapid Arctic warming is hypothesized to favor an increased persistence of regional weather patterns in the northern hemisphere [Francis and Vavrus 2012]. Persistent conditions can lead to drought, heatwaves, prolonged cold spells, and storminess that can cost millions of dollars in damage and disrupt societal and ecosystem norms. This study defines a new metric called long‐duration events (LDEs) ‐‐ conditions that endure at least 4 consecutive days ‐‐ and takes two independent approaches to assessing seasonal changes in weather‐pattern persistence over North America. One applies precipitation measurements at weather stations across the United States; the other is based on a cluster analysis of large‐scale, upper‐level atmospheric patterns. Both methods indicate an overall increase in LDEs. We also find that large‐scale patterns consistent with a warm Arctic exhibit an increased frequency of LDEs, suggesting that further Arctic warming may favor persistent weather patterns that can lead to weather extremes.

Plain Language Summary
Rapid Arctic warming and sea‐ice loss are expected to affect weather patterns around the northern hemisphere. An increased persistent of weather regimes is one hypothesized impact. Long‐lasting weather conditions can lead to destructive extreme events, such as droughts, prolonged cold spells, heatwaves, and flooding. This study uses daily precipitation measurements across the United States, as well as daily large‐scale atmospheric patterns over the eastern Pacific and North America, to assess changes in weather‐regime persistence, and whether any changes are associated with a rapidly warming Arctic. We find an increased frequency in long‐lived patterns in recent decades, especially those with abnormally warm high latitudes, suggesting that further Arctic warming may favor an increase in extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.



Scientists at Rutgers University-New Brunswick and the University of Wisconsin-Madison examined daily precipitation data at 17 stations across the U.S., along with large upper-level circulation patterns over the eastern Pacific Ocean and North America.

Overall, dry and wet spells lasting four or more days occurred more frequently in recent decades, according to the study published online today in Geophysical Research Letters. The frequency of persistent large-scale circulation patterns over North America also increased when the Arctic was abnormally warm.

"While we cannot say for sure that Arctic warming is the cause, we found that large-scale patterns with Arctic warming are becoming more frequent, and the frequency of long-duration weather conditions increases most for those patterns," said Francis, who works in the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences.

The results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm and melt, it's likely that long-duration events will continue to occur more often, meaning that weather patterns—heat waves, droughts, cold spells and stormy conditions—will likely become more persistent, she said.

"When these conditions last a long time, they can become extreme events, as we've seen so often in recent years," she said. "Knowing which types of events will occur more often in which regions and under what background conditions—such as certain ocean temperature patterns—will help decision-makers plan for the future in terms of infrastructure improvements, agricultural practices, emergency preparedness and managed retreat from hazardous areas."

https://phys.org/news/2018-09-persistent-weather-patterns-linked-arctic.html
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2345 on: September 26, 2018, 06:43:30 PM »
I initially posted this under "What's new in Antarctica", but on reflection, this might be the better page.
The small crew of intrepid sailors that take on the Southern Ocean are reporting increased storminess.
https://www.sailmagazine.com/racing/the-50th-anniversary-of-the-golden-globe

Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2346 on: September 26, 2018, 09:35:02 PM »

And the winner is, Kiruna. With +3.4°C. Hooray...
Also adding a screenshot of the top 52, all at or above +1.4°C.

The list is not off to a good start. Update 26/09/18 :

"We have found inconsistencies in the data for 38 cities on this site. Those cities have been removed, while we investigate the cause. We suspect that some data previously published may be wrong.

Among the 38 is Kiruna, the city previously ranked as the fastest warming".

So top of the list is now Granada with +1.59 C.

Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2347 on: September 27, 2018, 06:01:04 AM »
Crap, I should've seen that on those temps alone.  :(
I'll delete that crap posted by myself above as well.

Edit; tried to dig into this further but until EDJNET reports exactly what those inconsistencies are, it's impossble to say anything. Which is also what I should've done in the first place.
Deniers are happy as pigs in shit here, for the moment... No wonder.
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Darvince

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2348 on: September 28, 2018, 08:03:09 AM »
I'm posting this here as it is very unlikely to happen, but Goofus (GFS) has spit out some truly absurd rainfall totals for us here in Arizona over the next two weeks, from Rosa, her follower, and then a persistent low hanging around.

That's 13.7" in central Phoenix, the 1981-10 YEARLY normal is 8.03".

TerryM

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2349 on: September 28, 2018, 08:49:41 AM »
Darvince


That's a recipe for some unbelievable flash floods.
Load up a camper and head for very high land if this begins to look possible. I've seen moderate flash floods and they are no joke.


Stay away, stay safe, and keep us informed.
Terry