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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 673390 times)

wdmn

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2500 on: January 29, 2019, 01:23:31 AM »
Thank you Niall.

So then I am justified in thinking this is "weird" weather, and is connected to AGW.

I do still struggle with the direction of causation when thinking about the jet stream and rossby waves. The flow of the jet stream is determined by atmospheric pressure, or relative heat, creating the "slope" that the stream flows along, but the jet stream itself moves warm and cold air to different locations. So it seems like it would be a reinforcing mechanism. I'm guessing the ocean currents have a lot to do with this also.

About the polar vortex split phenomenon:

Quote
The possible changes are being triggered by a sudden and drastic warming of the air in the stratosphere, some 100,000 feet above the Arctic, and by a resulting disruption of the polar vortex — an area of low pressure at high altitudes near the pole that, when disrupted, can wobble like a spinning top and send cold air to the south.

...

Such events occur when large atmospheric waves surge beyond the troposphere and into the layer of air above it. Such a vertical transport of energy can rapidly warm the stratosphere, and set in motion a chain reaction that disrupts the stratospheric polar vortex.

Sudden stratospheric warming events are known to affect the weather in the U.S. and Europe on a time delay — typically on the order of a week to several weeks later, and their effects may persist for more than a month.

...

“Arctic change has increased the frequency of these polar vortex disruption events and following these polar vortex disruption events you get more severe winter weather," says Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at AER, a Verisk company, who studies the connections between Arctic climate change and altered weather patterns.

https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-is-about-to-split-up-5c2e7460-67fb-49da-b73a-079ffbe205b9.html

I'd still like to understand why these sudden "waves" of heat are transported from the troposphere to the stratosphere.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2501 on: January 29, 2019, 02:07:56 AM »
Other studies state that extreme cold is not a consequence of climate change, and they argue that temperature fluctuations should decrease.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/phys.org/news/2015-03-climate-extreme-winters.amp

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2502 on: January 29, 2019, 02:22:06 AM »
Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts 
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Summary:

- The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently neutral and is predicted to remain in a tight range between moderately negative to neutral for the next two weeks.

- The current neutral AO is reflective of mixed pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic and mixed pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently slightly positive with mixed pressure/geopotential height anomalies across Greenland and positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic and is predicted to trend negative as height anomalies turn mostly positive across Greenland over the next two weeks.

- Ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies centered south of Iceland and Greenland are forcing troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across much of Europe and over the next two weeks, though the trough is predicted to fill and weaken with time.   This pattern is predicted to bring seasonable to below normal temperatures to Western Europe including the United Kingdom (UK) while southwesterly winds will bring normal to above normal temperatures to Eastern Europe over the next wo weeks.

- Ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies centered in Western Russia and in the Barents-Kara Seas will force troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies and relatively cold temperatures downstream across Siberia and into Northeast Asia over the next two weeks. Also, ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies is predicted with relatively mild temperatures across Southern Asia including the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Regional troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across the northern India subcontinent are predicted to result in normal to below normal temperatures across Northern India and Pakistan.

- This week ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies centered along the West Coast of North America and mild temperatures are forcing troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies and relatively cold temperatures across eastern North America. However, the pattern is predicted to flip for next week with troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies and colder temperatures for western North America and ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies with milder temperatures for eastern North America including the Eastern United States (US).

- In the Impacts section, I discuss the implications for the surprisingly cold Arctic this winter.


Svalbard and the Barents Sea will be catching the heat over the next 30 days.

---------------------

Science Says: Get Used To Polar Vortex Outbreaks   
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-science-polar-vortex-outbreaks.html

Quote
... It all started with misplaced Moroccan heat. Last month, the normally super chilly air temperatures 20 miles above the North Pole rapidly rose by about 125 degrees (70 degrees Celsius), thanks to air flowing in from the south. It's called "sudden stratospheric warming."

That warmth split the polar vortex, leaving the pieces to wander, said Judah Cohen, a winter storm expert for Atmospheric Environmental Research, a commercial firm outside Boston.

"Where the polar vortex goes, so goes the cold air," Cohen said.

... When the forces penning the polar vortex in the Arctic are weak, it wanders, more often to Siberia than Michigan. And it's happening more frequently in the last couple decades, Furtado said. A study a year ago in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society looked at decades of the Arctic system and found the polar vortex has shifted "toward more frequent weak states."

... The unusual cold could stick around another eight weeks, Cohen said.

"The impacts from this split, we have a ways to go. It's not the end of the movie yet," Cohen said. "I think at a minimum, we're looking at mid-February, possibly through mid-March."
   
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Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2503 on: January 29, 2019, 03:10:44 AM »
These "extreme" hot and cold events are not just a statistical abstraction. The changing Arctic, from ocean to atmosphere is having direct effects on many of these events. Is not just the Arctic that is changing. Oceans are getting warmer, atmospheric and oceanic rivers are changing course.

I don't really know why "they" changed it from global warming to climate change but I like to believe they did it because global warming will likely be worse for changes in climate around the world than for global warming. This is happening as we speak.

I saw a movie the other day. The setting of the movie was one of a climate change so abrupt that the atmosphere wasn't breathable. Most animals went extinct. Some humans survive.

We don't have time to save it all, but we do have time to save most of it, if we take the threat serious. The planet won't kill us if we learn how to use it. We are part of it.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2504 on: January 29, 2019, 06:12:45 AM »
Quote
I don't really know why "they" changed it from global warming to climate change ...
Although an imprecise tool, the Google NGram Viewer shows frequency of words (or phrases) in books.  Comparing "climate change" with "global warming", you see (below and at the link) that "climate change" was slightly 'more popular' in the 1970's and '80's, and again after about 1995.  There was no "they changed it"!
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El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2505 on: January 29, 2019, 08:13:31 AM »
There is much talk about Warm Arctic, Cold Continents and extreme cold outbreaks. Unfortunately I do not know of a good graphic database which shows extreme temperature deviations globally, so I throw in a sort of "anecdotal", local evidence from Central Europe, where I live. These are the annual low temperatures for Budapest, Hungary. Each dot is the annual low and the black line is a 10 year moving average. As you can see, we had much more extreme winter lows during the first half of the 20th century (it was quite normal to have temps below -15 C and sometimes even below -20 C. That doesn't happen anymore. My point is that the climate (at least here) is becoming less extreme during winter, not more. Also, I attach global winter temps on chart 2, 2009-2018 average temperatures vs 1951-1980 average. It is obvious that winters are uniformly getting significantly warmer in the NH midlatitudes.
Looking at the second chart I guess that my analyisis of winter extreme low temps is most likely true for the whole of Europe!

wdmn

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2506 on: January 29, 2019, 10:12:04 AM »
Thanks El Cid.

I don't doubt that average temperature across winter has been going up (as your map shows), but that says little about the about WACCy events in these areas. I would be curious to know for my area (I'm trying to get the data) metrics like number of days per month below some threshold (for Budapest this might be days below -15). I'd also be curious to see max number of days in a row below that threshold, or number of runs of 3 days or more in a row under that temperature.


El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2507 on: January 29, 2019, 01:24:50 PM »
I would be curious to know for my area (I'm trying to get the data) metrics like number of days per month below some threshold (for Budapest this might be days below -15).

Yes, a global/ NH midlatitude map like that would be interesting to see how these extremes changed lately. In the meantime, I created another graph for Budapest. These trends likely quite well represent most of continental Europe. I show the number of days with below -10 C for each year and a 10 year moving average. We have had 0 to 5 such days since the 70s - except for the monster winters of 1985 and 1987 (well remembered throughout Europe). No sign of extremes here, either.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2508 on: January 29, 2019, 04:56:54 PM »
The following site details temperature extremes in the U.S. over the past century.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/

They state over the past century that:
1.  cold extremes have become less severe
2.  the frequency of cold waves has fallen
3.  warmest temperatures increased in parts of the southwest, but decreased in almost all other locations
4.  heat waves increased until the 1930s, decreased until the 1960s and increased thereafter
5.  heat wave magnitude reached a maximum in the 1930s
6.  since 1980, there is suggestive evidence of a slight increase in the intensity of heat waves


gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2509 on: January 29, 2019, 05:16:36 PM »
Two remarks on the US climate data from Klondike Kat

The US is a small fraction of the earth's surface (9.8 million km2 c.f. 510 million km2).
The question is how relevant is that climate history to today?

The suggestion is that AGW by causing less Arctic Sea Ice (ice-covered deserts morphing into open water ocean) and increased ocean temperatures in general may have caused a significant change in climate, including extreme weather events. A game of consequences...

Add to that Arctic temperatures increasing faster than mid-latitudes reduces the temperature gradient between latitudes, causing a general weakening of the polar vortex, in turn causing big floppy rossby waves, in turn causing enhanced flows of warmth and cold to and from the Arctic.

Add to that resulting increased frequency of SSW / PSV events as is causing extreme cold in parts of the USA and Asia (current one might last to Mid-March per Judah Cohen).

Reading the posts from ASLR suggests that a similar step-change is underway in the southern hemisphere.

I thought that was why climate change was becoming a more prevalent phrase in use than global warming.
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El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2510 on: January 29, 2019, 05:26:14 PM »
That is a really solid-looking dataset (and conclusions) Klondike Kat, and totally the same conclusions that I could draw from my local dataset:

Much smaller and shorter cold extremes, but interestingly not much growth in warm extremes.

xxx

Gerontocrat, facts are facts and theories are theories. Whatever Judah Cohen or anyone else says there seem to be less and less cold extremes in the US and as far as I can judge, in Europe as well.

I attach a picture from the page Klondike Kat cited, cold and warm extremes in the US. My data look pretty much the same

wdmn

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2511 on: January 29, 2019, 05:36:37 PM »
The arctic is changing rapidly; signals of the resulting changes in climate (re. the jet stream, etc) might take a while to emerge in a significant way across aggregate data sets...

The below graphs come from James Hansen's website. They only show the summer months, and suggest that the Northern Hemisphere taken as a whole has seen a significant shift towards extreme heat events.

gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2512 on: January 29, 2019, 06:32:30 PM »
One cannot ignore rainfall and floods

From the same report

Comment on floods
Confidence is limited to medium due to both the lack of an attributable change in observed flooding to date and the complicated multivariate nature of flooding. However, confidence is high in the projections of increased future extreme precipitation, the principal driver (among several) of many floods. It is unclear when an observed long-term increase in U.S. riverine flooding will be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Hence, confidence is medium in this part of the key message at this time.

Narrative to attached image
Annual and seasonal changes in precipitation over the United States. Changes are the average for present-day (1986–2015) minus the average for the first half of the last century (1901–1960 for the contiguous United States, 1925–1960 for Alaska and Hawai‘i) divided by the average for the first half of the century. (Figure source: [top panel] adapted from Peterson et al. 2013, © American Meteorological Society. Used with permission; [bottom four panels] NOAA NCEI, data source: nCLIMDiv].
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2513 on: January 29, 2019, 08:06:08 PM »
The changes have been rapid and recent. Most literature does not yet touch on the rapid shift which began around the early 2000s and has accelerated in the wake of 2011-12.



Klondike Kat keeps posting links to general studies and predictions whereas we are now witnessing strengthening evidence (that makes itself known through actual tangible sensible weather) that the cold end of extremes may be even wider than the warm repercussions for much of North America. This is certainly not a consensus opinion but in the wake of what is now unfolding across parts of the Midwest, and the worsening annual SWE / extent changes across much of Canada, *AND* considering it would actually jive well with what Hansen's modeling predicts, it cannot be ignored.

Chicago needs to fall below -11F by midnight to set its all-time record-low high temp tomorrow (and its high is likely to come at midnight, not the next day!)

Finally, something interesting I just noticed / realized. Central Park's only previous substantial spike in snowfall occurred in the 1940s, peaking in 1948. This directly followed the decrease in industrial emissions caused by WWII and the collapse of substantial global industry.



If this was sufficient to result in similar practical weather, perhaps this is an indicator that the shroud from SO2 / particulate emissions is a greater impactor of sensible weather than we had previously realized (which is the gist of current research being released). The impact is two-fold in that 1) it keeps temps lower but 2) in its absence, the seasonal melt flux from snowfall and Greenland melt also increases, offsetting temperature gains in specific regions due to meltwater flux and resultant impacts on weather. The recent changes in China and ongoing green-ing of Europe would certainly explain why 2011-12 seemed to be somewhat of a tipping point, and maybe this was partially induced by the recent shift towards clean energy?
« Last Edit: January 29, 2019, 08:13:28 PM by bbr2314 »

El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2514 on: January 29, 2019, 08:37:38 PM »

The below graphs come from James Hansen's website. They only show the summer months, and suggest that the Northern Hemisphere taken as a whole has seen a significant shift towards extreme heat events.

No. What it shows is a shift toward warmer weather, not towards extremes. You need to show that the standard deviation/skewness, etc has increased substantially. We all know that temperatures on this planet are set to rise. The question is: will extremes relative to that new average rise as well?

El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2515 on: January 29, 2019, 08:47:44 PM »
bbr,

Your chart is convincing, and there could be something to it. However, we all know, that a warmer planet will also be a wetter planet, so there SHOULD be more precipitation , especially in the mid/high latitudes as the Arctic is becoming a source of rain/snow for these areas.
The only question is (for me): is there going to be a bigger "volatility" of the system both temperature and precipitationwise? So far, the data are clear: we have NOT seen bigger extremes.

The trend is towards warmer and wetter, that is clear. If you are right, then midlatitudes should soon become (during winter) colder and wetter. Now that would be a real gamechanger. Maybe it is still early days, but currently I do not think you are right.

By the way, the record low for O'Hare intl Airport is -33 C and I see that the forecast is -30 C for Wed night. That is cold but by no means a record.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2516 on: January 29, 2019, 09:35:23 PM »
bbr,

Your chart is convincing, and there could be something to it. However, we all know, that a warmer planet will also be a wetter planet, so there SHOULD be more precipitation , especially in the mid/high latitudes as the Arctic is becoming a source of rain/snow for these areas.
The only question is (for me): is there going to be a bigger "volatility" of the system both temperature and precipitationwise? So far, the data are clear: we have NOT seen bigger extremes.

The trend is towards warmer and wetter, that is clear. If you are right, then midlatitudes should soon become (during winter) colder and wetter. Now that would be a real gamechanger. Maybe it is still early days, but currently I do not think you are right.

By the way, the record low for O'Hare intl Airport is -33 C and I see that the forecast is -30 C for Wed night. That is cold but by no means a record.

If you backup to gerontocrat's chart, you can see that precipitation has increased significantly, at least in the U.S.  At the time, there has been less volatility in the system.  Increases in low temperatures, combined with a very sight decrease in high temperatures, as resulting in the increasing average that we have witnessed.  The possibility of colder AND wetter seem rather remote, as colder air holds less water.

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2517 on: January 29, 2019, 10:07:41 PM »
bbr,

Your chart is convincing, and there could be something to it. However, we all know, that a warmer planet will also be a wetter planet, so there SHOULD be more precipitation , especially in the mid/high latitudes as the Arctic is becoming a source of rain/snow for these areas.
The only question is (for me): is there going to be a bigger "volatility" of the system both temperature and precipitationwise? So far, the data are clear: we have NOT seen bigger extremes.

The trend is towards warmer and wetter, that is clear. If you are right, then midlatitudes should soon become (during winter) colder and wetter. Now that would be a real gamechanger. Maybe it is still early days, but currently I do not think you are right.

By the way, the record low for O'Hare intl Airport is -33 C and I see that the forecast is -30 C for Wed night. That is cold but by no means a record.
That is -27F, and model output has been consistent around that number. The record-low-high temp is more likely (currently record is -11F).

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2518 on: January 29, 2019, 10:12:37 PM »
bbr,

Your chart is convincing, and there could be something to it. However, we all know, that a warmer planet will also be a wetter planet, so there SHOULD be more precipitation , especially in the mid/high latitudes as the Arctic is becoming a source of rain/snow for these areas.
The only question is (for me): is there going to be a bigger "volatility" of the system both temperature and precipitationwise? So far, the data are clear: we have NOT seen bigger extremes.

The trend is towards warmer and wetter, that is clear. If you are right, then midlatitudes should soon become (during winter) colder and wetter. Now that would be a real gamechanger. Maybe it is still early days, but currently I do not think you are right.

By the way, the record low for O'Hare intl Airport is -33 C and I see that the forecast is -30 C for Wed night. That is cold but by no means a record.

If you backup to gerontocrat's chart, you can see that precipitation has increased significantly, at least in the U.S.  At the time, there has been less volatility in the system.  Increases in low temperatures, combined with a very sight decrease in high temperatures, as resulting in the increasing average that we have witnessed.  The possibility of colder AND wetter seem rather remote, as colder air holds less water.
I think we are talking over each other a bit in this regard. I don't think that Quebec etc are necessarily going to be too much terribly colder during DJF even with climactic shifts -- the burden of those shifts are more likely to result in sensibly colder outbreaks further south.

HOWEVER, that does not apply to months in springtime and autumn. The warmer weather in DJF is still cold enough to allow for snow, and in fact, the excess warmth in a place like Quebec is prone to allowing MUCH more snow to fall during wintertime.

By the time spring rolls around, the positive snowdepth and water equivalents become much more impactful (albedo has higher impact on sensible weather in spring). This is why we have been seeing temperatures much lower than normal over areas where snowcover has laid later in the year than it previously did (and same with autumn).

A +10 DJF and a -11 MAM in a high-latitude region is technically colder than average, or at +10/-10, it is average. But the impact on sensible weather and downstream weather when you break apart what is actually happening under the smoothed averages is why things are going to be very bad, and decidedly-UN average, when the burden of the - anomalies is occurring into April and May, when spring used to begin.

PS, this is now obvious in the data signal since 2011-12, with DJF vs. April compared below. WOW at Canada. Wow! The May signal has been showing up more recently and is not yet as evident.

« Last Edit: January 29, 2019, 10:26:43 PM by bbr2314 »

El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2519 on: January 29, 2019, 11:14:47 PM »
If you were right, then there should be big amounts of snow BOTH in Canada AND Siberia which should keep these regions cool during the spring. That is not true however. Siberia is very consistently very warm even during the past 5 years in March and April. So despite of more water vapour from the Arctic (and more snow in these regions) Siberia is very warm during springs. It is only the Quebec region that  is colder. Why?

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2520 on: January 29, 2019, 11:22:17 PM »
If you were right, then there should be big amounts of snow BOTH in Canada AND Siberia which should keep these regions cool during the spring. That is not true however. Siberia is very consistently very warm even during the past 5 years in March and April. So despite of more water vapour from the Arctic (and more snow in these regions) Siberia is very warm during springs. It is only the Quebec region that  is colder. Why?
After the final springtime SSW, Quebec becomes the primary downwind region of Greenland. Siberia does not benefit from this proximity to the only major extant ice sheet in the NHEM. (IMO)

wdmn

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2521 on: January 29, 2019, 11:53:43 PM »

The below graphs come from James Hansen's website. They only show the summer months, and suggest that the Northern Hemisphere taken as a whole has seen a significant shift towards extreme heat events.

No. What it shows is a shift toward warmer weather, not towards extremes. You need to show that the standard deviation/skewness, etc has increased substantially. We all know that temperatures on this planet are set to rise. The question is: will extremes relative to that new average rise as well?

From James Hansen's paper where the graphic comes from:

"Global warming of about 1°F (0.6°C) over the past several decades now “loads the climate dice.” Fig. 1 updates the “bell curve” analysis of our 2012 paper[1] for Northern Hemisphere land, which showed that extreme hot summers now occur noticeably more often than they did 50 years ago."

"The bell curve width increases with global warming and the curve tends to become slightly asymmetric with an increasingly long tail on the ‘hot’ side."

" Our analysis (figure 1) agrees with the conclusion of Seneviratne et al (2014) and Sillmann et al (2014) that the trend toward increasingly hot extremes has continued in the most recent decade..."

http://csas.ei.columbia.edu/2016/02/29/regional-climate-change-and-national-responsibilities/

El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2522 on: January 30, 2019, 07:15:21 AM »
"The bell curve width increases with global warming and the curve tends to become slightly asymmetric with an increasingly long tail on the ‘hot’ side."

It was not obvious from the picture, but that is the question: if the bell curve is getting wider/fatter, that definitely means that extremes are increasing.

He also says that the curve is becoming assymetric for hot periods, which means that cold extremes should become more and more rare. And that is what is happening - notwithstanding the current cold outbreak in the Midwest.

Thank you for the clarification

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2523 on: January 30, 2019, 10:00:05 AM »
Current wind chill in Chicago is -44F!

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2524 on: January 30, 2019, 10:14:45 AM »
-55 F wind chill here in Minneapolis (-48 C). Most everything is shut down, including postal service. But I'm going out in a few hours to make tons of soup for the homeless and anyone else who wants it. Probably minestrone. Anybody have good recipes?
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2525 on: January 30, 2019, 01:09:15 PM »
-55 F wind chill here in Minneapolis (-48 C). Most everything is shut down, including postal service. But I'm going out in a few hours to make tons of soup for the homeless and anyone else who wants it. Probably minestrone. Anybody have good recipes?
Make it as thick as you can. The more basic food content the more energy available to fight the cold. And don't you go until you have fed yourself well and take stuff for you to eat on your travels to feed your internal furnace - or you will end up a victim of the cold as well.

ps: Warm scarf for your face. I got into trouble when I was in Cherkasy in the Ukraine (mea culpa - inexperience with real cold) - frostbite was getting into my face.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2526 on: January 30, 2019, 01:17:27 PM »
Those North America enormous -ve and +ve temperature anomalies are going to move around a lot. GIF attached

Also accumulated precipitation seems to be very low where the cold is most intense. Image attached. Quote from Klondike Kat..
Quote
The possibility of colder AND wetter seem rather remote, as colder air holds less water.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2527 on: January 30, 2019, 03:17:47 PM »
The last couple of decades of increasingly warm winters have made residents of Chicago soft. The commute to work was crazy quick as there were few cars on the road. -23F this morning.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2528 on: January 30, 2019, 03:20:28 PM »
-55 F wind chill here in Minneapolis (-48 C). Most everything is shut down, including postal service. But I'm going out in a few hours to make tons of soup for the homeless and anyone else who wants it. Probably minestrone. Anybody have good recipes?

You are a good soul.

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2529 on: January 30, 2019, 05:01:34 PM »




https://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/status/1090232669923917824/photo/1

... that's 'freedom degrees' - as one of our forum members would say

... or as my grandmother would say - zimno

Quote
The impacts to transportation continue to mount due to the brutal cold.

"Extreme weather conditions and an abundance of caution have led Amtrak to cancel all train originations to and from Chicago for Wednesday, Jan. 30, including short-distance corridor trains and long-distance overnight trains," Amtrak said in a statement. "Short-distance services are also canceled on Thursday, Jan. 31, and most long-distance services to or from Chicago are also not expected to originate on Jan. 31."

Over 1,000 flights have been canceled so far on Wednesday at Chicago O'Hare International Airport, according to FlightAware.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/75-below-zero-polar-vortex-yields-deadly-cold-as-thousands-endure-power-cuts-travel-issues-mount-in-midwest/70007291
« Last Edit: January 30, 2019, 05:41:47 PM by vox_mundi »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2530 on: January 30, 2019, 06:44:54 PM »
U.S.:  Minneapolis-St.Paul, Minnesota

“The plot of the upper air balloon observations at the Twin Cities, Minnesota office is so cold and dry it's literally OFF THE CHART! Wind chills tonight are downright dangerous in many spots. Stay warm and cover all exposed skin. #PolarVortex2019”
https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1090426587990945794
Chart below.

“He may be dressed like an astronaut, but for good reason. It was the coldest balloon launch in 23 years. The temperature was -29.5. [-34°C] #BoldNorth”
https://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/status/1090583850890203137
Brief video at the link.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2531 on: January 30, 2019, 09:43:47 PM »
So min of -30.6 C at Chicago O'Hare. Record min was -32.8 C in January 1985.

Good to see that Trump is holding the warming to  2 degrees C  ;)

The 1985 cold outbreak was again due to shifting of the polar vortex and a mobile polar high descending.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_1985_cold_wave

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2532 on: January 30, 2019, 11:15:11 PM »
So min of -30.6 C at Chicago O'Hare. Record min was -32.8 C in January 1985.

Good to see that Trump is holding the warming to  2 degrees C  ;)

The 1985 cold outbreak was again due to shifting of the polar vortex and a mobile polar high descending.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_1985_cold_wave
Last night was the preview, if the record comes, it'll be tonight. Looks like a -14F daytime high for ORD.

PS: the pattern looks strikingly similar to what preceded 2/2015. If that holds, expect record-coldest monthlies impending for much of eastern North America.

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2533 on: January 31, 2019, 12:33:42 AM »
Wonder whether the deniers here will poo-poo the potential state record in MN if verified. Minnesota and all-time record cold are not normally two words that go together.

https://twitter.com/NWSduluth/status/1090720557820231696/photo/1

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2534 on: January 31, 2019, 01:29:03 AM »
What's worse -- a few extra degrees on already-normal scorching temps during summertime for a few hours, where AC / supply can keep up, or day after day of frigid temperatures with no heat, when supply can no longer meet demand? 

https://kbjr6.com/news/minnesota-news-from-the-associated-press/2019/01/30/xcel-energy-asks-some-customers-to-turn-down-thermostat/

I would argue the cold is potentially much more deadly based on durability and ability to deal with infrastructure during this kind of weather (which is severely curtailed).

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2535 on: January 31, 2019, 01:49:44 AM »
Wonder whether the deniers here will poo-poo the potential state record in MN if verified. Minnesota and all-time record cold are not normally two words that go together.

https://twitter.com/NWSduluth/status/1090720557820231696/photo/1

Why would anyone dismiss a new state record?

Now attaching any more significance to it is worth dismissing.

bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2536 on: January 31, 2019, 07:26:43 AM »
Wonder whether the deniers here will poo-poo the potential state record in MN if verified. Minnesota and all-time record cold are not normally two words that go together.

https://twitter.com/NWSduluth/status/1090720557820231696/photo/1

Why would anyone dismiss a new state record?

Now attaching any more significance to it is worth dismissing.
When your heat goes in a sustained period of -30F weather and snowfall you might appreciate the significance of this change but by then it could be too late. The gas warnings are now extending to Michigan as well. I can't recall ever seeing anything of this magnitude.

PS: we had what was probably the most intense snow squall I have ever witnessed in NYC today. I couldn't see down to street level at the height (I'm 24 floors up) and the buildings across the street were barely visible (e.g. visibility was under 200 feet). Now down to 5F at The Battery, wondering if we hit 0? That would be relatively about as impressive as a -20F at O'Hare.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2537 on: January 31, 2019, 07:31:34 AM »
Jumping back in our discussion (sorry, it took a while to compile this due to the way the data was arranged), here is the data on number of days during the winter in Sault Ste Marie, ON Canada when the temperature was -20C or lower.

Sault Ste. Marie (https://goo.gl/maps/iiLUEyquewS2) is in Eastern North America.

Note that between 1962 and 2012 the linear mean declined by a total of ~12 days, and about the same amount when the data is isolated between 1989 and 2012. After the 1998 super el niño, the mimima seem to have reached a new phase. However, a new maximum occurs in 2014, followed by another of the highest years (in terms of N) in 2015.

This seems to provide some evidence that in Eastern North America a) a significant decline in extreme cold days (using an arbitrary definition of -20C for extreme cold) has occurred due to climate change, but that b) the maximum for N may now be increasing or returning to previous levels, even while the minima numbers have remained close to constant since 1998.


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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2538 on: January 31, 2019, 07:47:07 AM »
Chicago is gonna be back in the 40's by next week. Yes it's cold in some areas right now, but most of the world is warmer than average. More heat records are being broken than cold, by a significant margin.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2539 on: January 31, 2019, 09:21:12 AM »
Wonder whether the deniers here will poo-poo the potential state record in MN if verified.

Now, that is something new! Deniers are no longer the ones who deny that global warming/climate change is real, but those who think that it more likely to lead to warming than cooling :)

Nonetheless, I got your point bbr. There have been some noticeable cold outbreaks in Europe in the past few years as well (Jan 17, Feb 12), after the peacful 90s/00s, despite a generalized warming of winters.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2540 on: January 31, 2019, 09:24:09 AM »
Jumping back in our discussion (sorry, it took a while to compile this due to the way the data was arranged), here is the data on number of days during the winter in Sault Ste Marie, ON Canada when the temperature was -20C or lower.

That's a good chart though instead of a sloping trend I see 3 states: the first until 98, the second after 98, and possibly a third after 12 - probably related to changed Arctic behaviour.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2541 on: January 31, 2019, 10:19:43 AM »
Since the title of this thread includes the word anecdotal:

There is no doubt in my mind that winters in the midwest USA have been getting warmer. I recall winters where the  current temperatures persisted over weeks. We gonna be at 40F in a couple days. I have lived winters when we didnt see freezing for months on end.

This winter and the last have been colder than the three previous, when the ground didnt freeze even once. Hence the ash borer problem but i see estimates that 80% of the ash borers will be dead after this cold snap. Hurrah!

A lady of my acquaintance was born during one of the worst cold snaps in memory in the fifties in a remote farm. I knew her mother, who told me once, that the birth was difficult and they were unsure either mother or child would survive. Electric was out, they were running out of coal and firewood and water was freezing inside the house. So they put the child in a turkey baster in the oven (coal fired ... kept the door open so the baby would not asphyxiate) to keep her warm. They did not think the mother would make it, didnt trust that she had enuf body heat to keep the child warm enuf to survive.

But they both did. By comparison, we are wimps. I went out today (-6F for the high without counting the wind chill) swept some snow, shovelled a bit, walked around the neighbourhood, picked up some beer, chocolate, and assorted provisions, brought in some firewood, talked to a neighbours cat who seemed unfazed by the cold but wanted to supervise me ...

This is a walk in the park. Just got to dress for it. Cat had his winter coat going. I had many layers.

sidd
« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 10:25:55 AM by sidd »

Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2542 on: January 31, 2019, 11:02:18 AM »
Wonder whether the deniers here will poo-poo the potential state record in MN if verified. Minnesota and all-time record cold are not normally two words that go together.

https://twitter.com/NWSduluth/status/1090720557820231696/photo/1

Err. Poo poo what exactly. A hypothetical forecast ?  Better just stick with actual facts. No one keeps records of forecasts

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2543 on: January 31, 2019, 02:03:25 PM »
That's quite a tale, sidd. Thanks.

I dunno where you are, but here in Minnesota the temperatures we are experiencing now are mostly not unprecedented, but they were never very common...maybe once or twice a decade on average. Also, some people are remembering earlier much lower wind chills, but the formula for calculating those changed some time ago, so those are not reliable.

Climbing into the mere single digits below zero F later today will feel like a heat wave after what we've been through!
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2544 on: January 31, 2019, 03:11:16 PM »
Here in SW Ontario it feels as cold as anything I remember from my youth.


That said, this is only the 3'd time the river has frozen over since I returned in 2004. The annual break up of ice on the river here had been celebrated since the early 1800's - before any bridges crossed the Grand.


Local merchants rigged a stopwatch to a trigger embedded in the ice, and everyone sent their guess as to the exact second of the breakup through the newspaper. The prizes were highly sought after, and there was intense rivalry, particularly among those suffering from excessive testosterone secretions.


I was away for just over 40 years. When I returned the newspaper was long gone, and only a few of the most sedentary grey-beards showed a glimmer of recollection when reminded of those contests.


The point is that while today's weather may well set an all time record cold, the multi-year annual freeze, as recorded by river ice, indicates water temperatures warmer than had been the norm for at least 200 years.


Increasingly warm winters punctuated by extreme cold snaps.
Terry

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2545 on: January 31, 2019, 03:48:20 PM »
Jumping back in our discussion (sorry, it took a while to compile this due to the way the data was arranged), here is the data on number of days during the winter in Sault Ste Marie, ON Canada when the temperature was -20C or lower.

Sault Ste. Marie (https://goo.gl/maps/iiLUEyquewS2) is in Eastern North America.

Note that between 1962 and 2012 the linear mean declined by a total of ~12 days, and about the same amount when the data is isolated between 1989 and 2012. After the 1998 super el niño, the mimima seem to have reached a new phase. However, a new maximum occurs in 2014, followed by another of the highest years (in terms of N) in 2015.

This seems to provide some evidence that in Eastern North America a) a significant decline in extreme cold days (using an arbitrary definition of -20C for extreme cold) has occurred due to climate change, but that b) the maximum for N may now be increasing or returning to previous levels, even while the minima numbers have remained close to constant since 1998.

Looking at your graph, the variability has not changed much over time.  As with any conclusion based on limited data, a few points may present a false trend.  Still, it looks as if the data has leveled out since 1998.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2546 on: January 31, 2019, 03:55:44 PM »
Another brutally cold morning in Chicago (-22 Freedom Degrees) with a high around zero today although the strong winds have died down so it is not as dangerous out there as yesterday.

Forecast for the weekend?

Saturday  41F
Sunday    46F
Monday   52F and rainy

Talk about weird weather...a swing of 74 degrees in 5 days!
« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 08:57:34 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2547 on: January 31, 2019, 03:58:50 PM »
My point?

Two days of brutal cold, even record breaking brutal cold, means nothing more than 2 days of record breaking brutal cold. Anyone here who would suggest otherwise should be working for Hair Furor in the White House.

wdmn

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2548 on: January 31, 2019, 04:01:32 PM »
Jumping back in our discussion (sorry, it took a while to compile this due to the way the data was arranged), here is the data on number of days during the winter in Sault Ste Marie, ON Canada when the temperature was -20C or lower.

Sault Ste. Marie (https://goo.gl/maps/iiLUEyquewS2) is in Eastern North America.

Note that between 1962 and 2012 the linear mean declined by a total of ~12 days, and about the same amount when the data is isolated between 1989 and 2012. After the 1998 super el niño, the mimima seem to have reached a new phase. However, a new maximum occurs in 2014, followed by another of the highest years (in terms of N) in 2015.

This seems to provide some evidence that in Eastern North America a) a significant decline in extreme cold days (using an arbitrary definition of -20C for extreme cold) has occurred due to climate change, but that b) the maximum for N may now be increasing or returning to previous levels, even while the minima numbers have remained close to constant since 1998.

Looking at your graph, the variability has not changed much over time.  As with any conclusion based on limited data, a few points may present a false trend.  Still, it looks as if the data has leveled out since 1998.

As El Cid said, I see 3 clear phases. Within the 4 years from 2010 to 2014 the difference between minimum and maximum is greater than the difference between minimum and maximum in the 35 years from 1962 - 1997*, and by quite a bit (a difference in amplitude of 46 vs. 33). So the variability is not consistent.

What you're doing Klondike Kat is viewing this graph as something isolated, floating on its own rather than as one piece nested within a context of data and evidence. I would expect another large spike in N this year, again in a year when this polar vortex splitting is known to have occurred.

*(This period could be extended up until 2013, or 51 years).

Bernard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2549 on: January 31, 2019, 07:28:03 PM »
Increasingly warm winters punctuated by extreme cold snaps.
Terry

To try and convince those who won't buy this argument and consider this too counter-intuitive, being immune to figures, stats, mean values and so on, in short, those blockheads hermetic to basic science, maybe comparison with violent hailstorms could help. The most stubborn Texan redneck will have to admit that hail, akin to the ice cubes in his jumbo fridge, are produced by storms generated by hellish warmth, and the hotter the summer, the bigger the hailstones will grow. And au passage he will also admit that to make cold his fridge has to warm the outside. Two lessons for the price of one, hopefully.