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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 770876 times)

Pmt111500

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2900 on: January 02, 2020, 01:18:49 PM »
Sunndalsora in Norway recorded the new peak heat for Norway in January +19°C (66F). The area is known for warm föhn-winds (aka Chinook in usa.), so the record is only rised by a bit over 1 degree Celsius.
https://www.is.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000006360451.html
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2901 on: January 02, 2020, 01:57:29 PM »
Sunndalsøra now holds the Norwegian national monthly max record for each of the three winter months Dec, Jan, Feb.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2020, 02:03:22 PM by Niall Dollard »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2902 on: January 03, 2020, 08:50:24 PM »
Quote
NWS WPC (@NWSWPC) 1/3/20, 8:44 AM
*Preliminary* Precipitation Analysis for 2019 shows much of the country experienced a wetter than average year. The northern and central Plains in particular experienced an unprecedented amount of precipitation. Some areas broke previous annual records by more than 20 inches! [508mm!]
https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/1213093785435090944
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blumenkraft

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2903 on: January 06, 2020, 02:54:07 PM »
Well, those folks surely expected thicker ice... Video at link well worth a watch.

Quote
A 40-strong group of ice anglers have been forced to fish their own cars out of the water after leaving them parked on a frozen sheet.

Link >> https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/05/scramble-rescue-dozens-cars-fell-ice-sea-12005272/?ito=cbshare
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2904 on: January 11, 2020, 04:41:02 AM »
Chicago, January 10, 9:30 p.m.

Winter storm warning for the last 24 hours...

40F...raining like a son of a bitch...have lived here all of my life...this is not a winter storm...

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2905 on: January 11, 2020, 04:21:33 PM »
Winter storm blew into Chicago last night with a vengeance...high winds with driving rain...temps never fell below freezing...this is a winter storm only because it is a storm and it is winter...otherwise? Not so much.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2906 on: January 11, 2020, 04:26:17 PM »
I read a clifi novel a few decades ago that spoke of "first mild winters, then warm winters, then no winter".
So fat (winter half over) I would call it "warm winter" here.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2907 on: January 11, 2020, 04:45:03 PM »
Well, here in the UK, 2019 saw new record high temps set for December and back in February.... only January to see a new record high and we have the set!

I worry that the north will see a similar spring/summer to Australia's spring/summer as the flip in naturals/China's particulate/sulphate clean up since 2014, digs in?

Last years high global temps, over a La Nada year, doesn't have me to happy about the next Nino year and the temps it will drive? (breaking the global high temp the last 'Super Nino' set?)

The last (Super) Nino saw the 1.5c above 1850 temps fall and the Siberian caves (in the permafrost) tell us that the permafrost goes at 1.5c above pre-industrial temps (and stalactite formation recomences?) which hints at an ice free Arctic (allowing the warmer temps to impose themselves?)

In its turn this will lead to CO2/CH4 emmisions as the vegetation locked in the permafrost begins to rot

To me the 2020's look like the decade the world really begins to see the extremes in climate ramp up
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2908 on: January 11, 2020, 04:59:26 PM »
To me the 2020's look like the decade the world really begins to see the extremes in climate ramp up

The best thing that could happen in this decade would be to have multiple, unprecedented weather catastrophes hit the developed countries over and over again. These catastrophes need to result in substantial loss of life and widespread destruction of property and infrastructure, so severe as to cause a permanent shift in habitability of vulnerable regions.

It is very sad that this is likely the only thing to get people to wake up and all become Greta Thunbergs.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2909 on: January 11, 2020, 05:07:15 PM »
Nearly 250K people permanently moved from the most vulnerable areas of the Louisiana coastline after Katrina. Most of them moved to areas adjacent to the areas they left. Large sections of New Orleans will never be rebuilt. Many should be considered climate refugees.

We need to have several urban areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coast suffer similar fates in this decade to wake Americans up.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2910 on: January 11, 2020, 05:43:17 PM »
To me the 2020's look like the decade the world really begins to see the extremes in climate ramp up

The best thing that could happen in this decade would be to have multiple, unprecedented weather catastrophes hit the developed countries over and over again. These catastrophes need to result in substantial loss of life and widespread destruction of property and infrastructure, so severe as to cause a permanent shift in habitability of vulnerable regions.

It is very sad that this is likely the only thing to get people to wake up and all become Greta Thunbergs.

Sadly I have to agree with you

We still have too many in the developed world sleepwalking into this crisis courtesy of Paid Climate Change Deniers (and their backers?)

Until such folks are jolted into their 'Fight or Flight' response we will just allow the corps/govt's to continue to compound our peril (& that of all the other inhabitants of this World?) so sadly we need such 'big events' that show us all that this Crisis is real & happening all around us and will impact each and every one of us
KOYAANISQATSI

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nanning

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2911 on: January 11, 2020, 07:53:40 PM »
Thanks Gray-Wolf and Shared Humanity.

In my view the best thing that can happen is for civilisation to soon collapse because it will mean the (start of the) end of anthropogenic emissions.

In my estimate this will happen within 10 years but I have already changed my estimate a couple of times to an earlier period because of new information.

"Technology will save the day" is still the strong belief today.
Magic without consequences?

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I have been sitting everyday in a now eerily quiet forest since spring. Devoid of sounds of birds, mammals and flying insects. High winds almost every day. Chaos.
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"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
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wdmn

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2912 on: January 11, 2020, 08:39:22 PM »
Nanning,

I'm curious as to what you think would emerge if civilization collapsed now?

nanning

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2913 on: January 12, 2020, 05:42:44 AM »
Thanks for the question wdmn.

I don't think civilisation can collapse now because first the globalized infrastructure (finance, logistics, production, transport, energy) has to be severely damaged. A breakdown of 2 of those 5 will be enough I expect. Globalized infrastructure is a manifold of complex interdependend interconnected systems and I expect that when a tipping point is crossed through breakdowns, it will be a fast global crash. 'Just In Time delivery' cannot go on -> no deliveries.

Much depends on the available time to adapt but I think I can safely say that our current governments won't know how to adapt because they only govern with finance and neo-liberalist dogma. It's likely that many counries will come under martial law.

Will individual countries or unions of neighbouring countries be able to continue to have the same economy/society as before?
Can the finance and energy infrastructure be 'sandboxed'? I don't think so because the whole system needs to be re-engineered and there will be no time for that. Missing essential resources and parts will stop almost all production. There is no resilience in our current systems and no self sufficiency. Most rich countries can't even produce their own food. Prices will skyrocket.
Social: Will the all important global Internet and its many functions such as T.V. still work? Many people will be in shock because their comfort bubbles have been popped. What will they do? What will the people do that can't afford food?
What will people do when there is no more T.V.?
All 'bubble's will be popped and reality will kick in 'with a vengeance'; the reality that was there all along but had been kept at bay through layers of technology.

Some richer countries will be able to temporarily soften the blows and continue but not for long.
When the electricity grid goes down, I expect a deadly chaos and war to ensue. (that's the phase I don't want to live in btw)
The U.S.A. will likely turn into an automatic-assault-weapon-ized prison riot.


These are some general lines of thinking and it probably will happen in a different way and maybe much faster but not much slower because of the flimsy card house of interdependecies.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2914 on: January 12, 2020, 03:50:33 PM »
Well, the tail end of the winter storm did finally deliver about 2 inches of snow in Chicago while it generated a massive ice storm in the upper Midwest and Canada. Incidentally, ice storms use to be the fate of the mid South in the U.S..

Temps rise to the mid 40's by Tuesday so that snow will be short lived.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2915 on: January 13, 2020, 01:22:25 AM »
Boston MA (74 F) and Providence RI (70 F) set new January all time max records.


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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2916 on: January 13, 2020, 01:31:14 PM »
These temps in celsius are
23,3 C
21,1 C
18,8 C

And RI is Rhode Island. 
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2917 on: January 13, 2020, 11:16:56 PM »
These temps in celsius are
23,3 C
21,1 C
18,8 C

And RI is Rhode Island.

Thanks Kassy.  :)

Yes I would normally do the conversion to Celsius. I don't have any particular liking for degrees F. But let me explain why I left the American figures in Fahrenheit

As far as I am aware, the US National Weather Service record/report the values only to nearest degree F.

By quoting a celsius figure to one decimal place gives the impression that the value is precise to 0.1 C, whereas in actuality the max at Boston may have been anywhere between 73.5 F and 74.4 F ! 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2918 on: January 14, 2020, 12:27:12 AM »
January 12

NWS New York NY: "As of 1:30pm, new record highs have been set at Central Park (68°), Newark (69°), JFK (68°), Islip (68°), and Bridgeport (69°), breaking records previously set in 2017 and 2018. Islip and Bridgeport broke their records by 10° and 14°, respectively!"
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwsnewyorkny/status/1216434600420884482

68°F is 20°C
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The Walrus

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2919 on: January 14, 2020, 12:35:08 AM »
Nanning,
People have been predicting some sort of global collapse for decades now.  Nothing close has ever materialized.  Some individual countries have gone sour, but even the worst years have not come close.  I seriously doubt we will see any sort of collapse in the near future.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2920 on: January 14, 2020, 12:50:15 AM »
January 12

NWS New York NY: "As of 1:30pm, new record highs have been set at Central Park (68°), Newark (69°), JFK (68°), Islip (68°), and Bridgeport (69°), breaking records previously set in 2017 and 2018. Islip and Bridgeport broke their records by 10° and 14°, respectively!"
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwsnewyorkny/status/1216434600420884482

68°F is 20°C

It's not clear from the tweet but just to clarify those records are date (day) records  - except for Bridgeport which set a new record for the month of January.


oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2921 on: January 14, 2020, 02:16:26 AM »
I don't think civilisation can collapse now because first the globalized infrastructure (finance, logistics, production, transport, energy) has to be severely damaged. A breakdown of 2 of those 5 will be enough I expect. Globalized infrastructure is a manifold of complex interdependend interconnected systems and I expect that when a tipping point is crossed through breakdowns, it will be a fast global crash. 'Just In Time delivery' cannot go on -> no deliveries.
...
Can the finance and energy infrastructure be 'sandboxed'? I don't think so because the whole system needs to be re-engineered and there will be no time for that. Missing essential resources and parts will stop almost all production. There is no resilience in our current systems and no self sufficiency. Most rich countries can't even produce their own food. Prices will skyrocket.
...
Some richer countries will be able to temporarily soften the blows and continue but not for long.
Yes, yes and yes.
My timeline is around 2050 for the pressures emanating from overpopulation, resource consumption and environmental degradation (including AGW) to finally tip the scales.

In my view, technology and political will could save us, but won't. Rate of deployment of appropriate technology (e.g. solar PV), and the taking of hard decisions (e.g. one-child policy), have to be accelerated 10x, in fact had to be accelerated a couple decades back.

This is the wrong thread so i won't belabor these points any further.

Wherestheice

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2922 on: January 14, 2020, 02:36:45 AM »
Nanning,
People have been predicting some sort of global collapse for decades now.  Nothing close has ever materialized.  Some individual countries have gone sour, but even the worst years have not come close.  I seriously doubt we will see any sort of collapse in the near future.

Can you provide one credible example of an expert predicting that civilization was supposed to collapse in recent decades? Because I can't think of any. However, many experts are now saying collapse is possible, if not likely on our current course.
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The Walrus

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2923 on: January 14, 2020, 03:26:48 AM »
<snip, write something more interesting, and take a stand that doesn't look like a concern troll on thin ice; N.>
« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 08:59:16 PM by Neven »

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2924 on: January 14, 2020, 10:18:50 AM »
The most famous is the Club of Rome's Limits to Growth , 1972. It has many iterations ever since. They basically predicted a huge slide of civilization in the 2010-30 period (industrial production collapse, food scarcity, etc). there have been many like this .

And obviously the first one was Malthus, who wrote his works in the early 1800s. His disciples updated it and always expected a collapse in the near future

be cause

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2925 on: January 14, 2020, 11:01:42 AM »
cheap money borrowed from the future was not a concept until recently . Now it is a $270 trillion reality . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2926 on: January 14, 2020, 01:25:24 PM »
cheap money borrowed from the future was not a concept until recently . Now it is a $270 trillion reality . b.c.

This is a major and popular misconception

1) Real goods can not be borrowed from the future only nominal assets. Borrowing can temporarily push up the nominal price of stocks, housing, etc but won't change the amount of real goods available
2) There were huge borrowing binges in the past, starting from John Law's experiment in quantitative easing in France in the 1700s, then hyperinflítion after WW1, then the fixing of interest rates at an unnaturally low level during WW2 (see the US Fed's policies during the 1940s), then the Japanese bubble, etc, etc, many, many examples of unnaturally low interest rates leading to huge borrowing and eventual collapse of  asset prices
3) Forecasting the end of the world is always a very attractive psychological position as it proves me that I am cleverer than everybody else and when they realize their doom I will be standing there, telling everyone: "I told you so"

kassy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2927 on: January 14, 2020, 02:21:08 PM »
By quoting a celsius figure to one decimal place gives the impression that the value is precise to 0.1 C, whereas in actuality the max at Boston may have been anywhere between 73.5 F and 74.4 F !

Good to know. Of course the translation assumes exact values.

The goal for me was not really exact numbers but to get a better feel and then you still have to look up the places if you are not that familiar with them.

*

Borrowing money the future is not the problem but stealing it´s resources. We had a golden age last century where science solved a lot of issues and then the cold war ended. We could have opted for more cooperation and stewardship but the world shifted to more exploitation (as it was preset to do see recent Chomsky articles by sidd and rboyd).

Aside from global warming there is depletion of aquifers (worsened by the first if you really on meltwater) , depletion of soils and rampant chemical and plastic pollution. And i could add another paragraph or two but i won´t.
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nanning

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2928 on: January 14, 2020, 05:04:54 PM »
Quote from: kassy
And i could add another paragraph or two but i won´t.

That's too bad kassy, I find your view interesting and could have learned something and/or updated my own view.
Maybe later in another thread? :)

--
Weird weather:

Last winter here in the Netherlands, there were only 3 days where the temperature was below 0 °C the whole day..

There will be no more "Elfstedentocht" I fear.
I expect it may get cold enough again sometime in the future, but there's no stability anymore. Weeks of frostdays are necessary but the weather changes too quickly for that to happen in my view.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2929 on: January 14, 2020, 05:46:33 PM »
Red Cross releases funds in anticipation of extreme winter in Mongolia
Quote
...
On 2 January, Mongolia's National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring announced more than 50 per cent of the country was at risk of an extreme (dzud) winter. This unwelcome news has triggered the pre-agreed release of CHF 210,968 (217,000 US dollars) to the Mongolian Red Cross Society for forecast-based action from IFRC's Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF). The funding provides 88 Swiss francs (90.6 US dollars) cash each for 1,000 vulnerable herder families to prevent the starvation, dehydration and cold exposure of their livestock because of poor access to feed, water, veterinary care and shelter. A livestock nutrition kit will support livestock health during winter's lean months.
...
Maybe not climate change (this time), but this is an example of the preparation organizations and governments will need to take to respond to "Climate Weirding".
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2930 on: January 14, 2020, 06:28:38 PM »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2931 on: January 14, 2020, 09:11:51 PM »
Quote from: kassy
And i could add another paragraph or two but i won´t.

That's too bad kassy, I find your view interesting and could have learned something and/or updated my own view.
Maybe later in another thread? :)

--
Weird weather:

Last winter here in the Netherlands, there were only 3 days where the temperature was below 0 °C the whole day..

There will be no more "Elfstedentocht" I fear.
I expect it may get cold enough again sometime in the future, but there's no stability anymore. Weeks of frostdays are necessary but the weather changes too quickly for that to happen in my view.

Cook County where Chicago is located, use to have toboggan runs in many of their forest preserves. They started removing them 20 years ago because of a lack of snow. None remain. Use to go to them all of the time as a kid.

oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2932 on: January 15, 2020, 01:57:46 AM »
This is a major and popular misconception

1) Real goods can not be borrowed from the future only nominal assets. Borrowing can temporarily push up the nominal price of stocks, housing, etc but won't change the amount of real goods available
Very much not true. When you overfish the oceans leading to much lower fish output later, you borrow/steal from the future. When you deforest the Amazon for cattle and soy farming, leading to a much smaller carbon sink later, you borrow/steal from the future. When you overfarm leading to topsoil loss and poisoning of the ground with chemicals, leading to lower farming output later, you borrow/steal from the future. When you drain aquifers at much higher rates than their natural refill rates, leading to much lower water output later, you borrow/steal from the future. There are many other examples, too many to list unfortunately.


Quote
3) Forecasting the end of the world is always a very attractive psychological position as it proves me that I am cleverer than everybody else and when they realize their doom I will be standing there, telling everyone: "I told you so"
I am not a psychologist but it seems from reading this forum that "debunking" dire long-term forecasts using a variety of techniques is a very attractive psychological proposition for some members.

Florifulgurator

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2933 on: January 15, 2020, 03:34:26 AM »
There are many other examples, too many to list unfortunately.
E.g. stealing fertile soil while depleting phosphate mines and destabilizing the climate needed for reliable food production. We are almost literally stealing bread from the future.
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Wherestheice

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2934 on: January 15, 2020, 04:35:58 AM »
The most famous is the Club of Rome's Limits to Growth , 1972. It has many iterations ever since. They basically predicted a huge slide of civilization in the 2010-30 period (industrial production collapse, food scarcity, etc). there have been many like this .

And obviously the first one was Malthus, who wrote his works in the early 1800s. His disciples updated it and always expected a collapse in the near future

And I would argue civilization is definitely sliding as we speak. But lets be clear that LTG didn't forsee a collapse happening until as late as 2070. So the idea that they predicted collapse in recent decades is false (if that is what you were trying to point out).

As for Malthus, I don't know anything about his predictions, but it sounds like he had the general idea that to many people will be a problem, and I agree. But that was hundreds of years ago. The world is facing a collapse, and we have data to prove it this time. It is not a question of if, but when.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2935 on: January 15, 2020, 04:55:15 AM »
But lets be clear that LTG didn't forsee a collapse happening until as late as 2070. So the idea that they predicted collapse in recent decades is false (if that is what you were trying to point out).
Yeah. This propaganda meanwhile has a beard twice as long as Darwin's.
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Wherestheice

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2936 on: January 15, 2020, 05:01:33 AM »
But lets be clear that LTG didn't forsee a collapse happening until as late as 2070. So the idea that they predicted collapse in recent decades is false (if that is what you were trying to point out).
Yeah. This propaganda meanwhile has a beard twice as long as Darwin's.

What are you calling propaganda?
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El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2937 on: January 15, 2020, 08:32:27 AM »
"After reviewing their computer simulations, the research team came to the following conclusions:[1]:23–24

    Given business as usual, i.e., no changes to historical growth trends, the limits to growth on earth would become evident by 2072, leading to "sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity". This includes the following:
        Global Industrial output per capita reaches a peak around 2008, followed by a rapid decline
        Global Food per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline
        Global Services per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline
        Global population reaches a peak in 2030, followed by a rapid decline
"

from:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2938 on: January 15, 2020, 09:35:22 AM »
El Cid, I wonder - did you read the LTG book? Did you read the update? Or are you just going by headlines?
By the way, at least some changes in growth trends were introduced after the original book - for example the Chinese one-child policy was in part affected by the book and the concept of finite limits to growth on a finite planet. So how do you judge the success of the simulations? (Not predictions but never mind).

To all, I strongly recommend reading the "Limits to Growth - the 30-year update" published in 2004, which is freely available online for some reason. You will better understand the concepts of limits, carrying capacity and overshoot and not have to rely on other people's opinions or biased summaries.
http://www.peakoilindia.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Limits-to-Growth-updated.pdf

KiwiGriff

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2939 on: January 15, 2020, 10:16:09 AM »
Quote
Can you provide one credible example of an expert predicting that civilization was supposed to collapse in recent decades? Because I can't think of any. However, many experts are now saying collapse is possible, if not likely on our current course.

Quote
The most famous is the Club of Rome's Limits to Growth , 1972. It has many iterations ever since. They basically predicted a huge slide of civilization in the 2010-30 period (industrial production collapse, food scarcity, etc). there have been many like this .
Did you really hit 88 in your  delorean El Cid? :o

This is another time you remind me of WUWTers .

Like claiming the temps from boreholes  on Greenland ice sheet are indicative of global changes.
 It takes about  5000 years to warm the 4 to 7C from a glaciation to an interval  not decades.
As far as science can ascertain, at no time we have reliable proxies for, have global temperatures risen as fast as they are presently.
 
 https://skepticalscience.com/10000-years-warmer.htm

The west is carrying trillions of dept being used to inflate a economic bubble of gigantic proportions.
At some stage in the near future we will wipe trillions off the global economy when we finally write off all the fossil fuel assets.
What happens when our unsustainable lifestyle catches up to us  is impossible to foretell because we have never experienced such a correction.
I would hazard it will make the Great Depression/Recession look like a minor hiccup.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2020, 10:48:58 AM by KiwiGriff »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2940 on: January 15, 2020, 10:28:58 AM »
LTG ran a variety of scenarios. IIRC (I read the book when it came out) the "standard run" had collapse starting c2030.
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Pmt111500

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2941 on: January 15, 2020, 11:09:30 AM »
Mild excitement here in southern Finland as several locations are getting near their January maximum records in temperature. FMI does not publicly tell what the records are for each, found a note from 2007 of a 8,4C and now before noon it's 7,8C. There's though little chance January record for whole Finland gets broken today.

(Edit: nope, the sun didn't come out and the max was missed by half a degree, went for a walk, should have taken a lighter coat)
« Last Edit: January 15, 2020, 02:11:26 PM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

nanning

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2942 on: January 15, 2020, 11:21:49 AM »
Yesterday the temperature at the nearby military airbase in Leeuwarden in the Netherlands reached 12.1°C, setting the second record high temperature of this month.
https://weerstatistieken.nl/leeuwarden/2020/januari
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El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2943 on: January 15, 2020, 12:55:18 PM »
1. Club of Rome: I did read the whole book cca 30 years ago and also Malthus's book, and many of the followups and became a doomer thereof. To tell you the truth I was scared to shit and thought the world would soon end. 

2. I previously quoted studies about abrupt climate changes, but I always have to requote them because doomers do not believe it:

the first relevant hit in Google from a reliable source:

https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/abrupt-climate-change-during-the-last-ice-24288097/

"One of the most surprising findings was that the shifts from cold stadials to the warm interstadial intervals occurred in a matter of decades, with air temperatures over Greenland rapidly warming 8 to 15°C" (the original study used decades as well, but said that it likely happened within a matter of YEARS. )

I did not see Greenland temperatures going up 8 to 15C in the past decades, so saying that the current warming is unprecedented is baseless in my view

3. Not being a doomer does not make one a denier. I am optimistic that humanity will overcome this very real, very serious threat

kassy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2944 on: January 15, 2020, 02:16:05 PM »
A general question: can we compare all these fluctuations?

The changes El Cid provides above are the Dansgaard-Oscher oscillations which relate to Heinrich events which relates to mass rafting of icebergs.

This is not the same as current melting Greenland in and Greenland itself mitigates local temperature so of course we would not expect similar warming there yet.

We are the other end of the ice ages. Those temperature swings now would be really impressive but many of the crops we grow are much nearer to their upper temperature limit so a much smaller temperature rise will hurt them, or prolonged droughts couple with floods.

Also our current situation is special. The effect is everywhere. So our current situation is most comparable to other episodes where the warming pulse is a result of some CO2 pulse which are not always the best analogs climate wise.

An another note: the ultimate severity of the outcome does not matter.
We already know we cannot go on like this. But a lot of the idiots with a lot of money want to keep making some more money and certain professions leech of of that so they are slowing down the process.


And on topic. It´s january the 15th which used to be cold in the Netherlands but i spoke to several persons who all complained about flies buzzing around the house at night...
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nanning

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2945 on: January 15, 2020, 04:48:38 PM »
^^
Great explanation in my view kassy.

Just now I spoke to a neighbour whom was stung many times by mosquitos (NL: neven) last night and she said she had seen newborn swans.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2946 on: January 15, 2020, 05:23:32 PM »
With the 'polar night Jet' (polar vortex) looking so 'orderly' this year (for once!);

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-44.87,85.69,368

 we might be seeing what we should be used to by now (Winters really began 'milding' in the 80's here in the UK?) had we not seen the impacts of both the Ozone hole & Asian Dimming via their rapid industrialisation mess around with global circulation from Strat through the Trop?

Instead we became used to 'cold zones' or areas frequently seeing Polar Plunges and 'mild zones' seeing frequent Warm Air Advection (WAA)?

This time ,with the cold pegged in the Arctic, 'normal' temps are able to maintain over most of the temperate regions?

Problem comes in late Feb/early March when the Polar night jet collapses at winters end and cold flows South/warmth heads North. Will their be a marked increase in the potential difference between air masses and so increased extreme weathers where they meet?

Tornado ally in the US sees a cold polar flow off the rockies meeting with hot humid airs from the Gulf of Mexico

In N. Europe we have a band of lands , from the UK in the west to the far N of Italy, topping the world stats for 'Funnel cloud' formation over the year.

Should this region see the potential difference between opposing air masses increase (African Plumes meeting with Polar Plunges?) should we not expect the 'formation' of Funnel clouds to become 'stronger' and more, higher speed, Tornadoes form from them?

If this 'mild' (so far) winter, in our NW European area, continues then should we be expecting quite a busy spring once the mixing of Polar/tropical commences?

Might we not be seeing some quite viscous storms developing (with all the extra water a warmer atmosphere gives them?) with large hail/frequent lightning & tornado formation?
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nanning

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2947 on: January 15, 2020, 06:34:37 PM »
Interesting Gray-Wolf.

I wonder what damage a tornado would inflict onto one of the dykes in the Netherlands. It only needs 1 big one for people to finally wake up here. We are not like Australians but most Dutch don't take AGW serious yet to put it mildly. And we are very very vulnerable.
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"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
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gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2948 on: January 15, 2020, 07:33:02 PM »
Interesting Gray-Wolf.

I wonder what damage a tornado would inflict onto one of the dykes in the Netherlands. It only needs 1 big one for people to finally wake up here. We are not like Australians but most Dutch don't take AGW serious yet to put it mildly. And we are very very vulnerable.
Forget tornadoes. Try a North Sea winter storm, very low atmospheric pressure and a high Spring tide.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953
The 1953 North Sea flood was a major flood caused by a heavy storm that occurred on the night of Saturday, 31 January 1953 and morning of Sunday, 1 February 1953. The floods struck the Netherlands, Belgium, England and Scotland.

A combination of a high spring tide and a severe European windstorm over the North Sea caused a storm tide; the combination of wind, high tide, and low pressure led to a water level of more than 5.6 metres (18.4 ft) above mean sea level in some locations. The flood and waves overwhelmed sea defences and caused extensive flooding. The Netherlands, a country with 20% of its territory below mean sea level and 50% less than 1 metre (3.3 ft) above sea level and which relies heavily on sea defences, was worst affected, recording 1,836 deaths and widespread property damage. Most of the casualties occurred in the southern province of Zeeland. In England, 307 people were killed in the counties of Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex. Nineteen were killed in Scotland. Twenty-eight people were killed in West Flanders, Belgium.
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kassy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2949 on: January 16, 2020, 12:04:49 AM »
The tolerance build into our dikes is pretty fine. Not worried about that. But a changing world will throw you curveballs. We added lots of land that could be flooded but then we had these really hot european summers. Rhine levels fell so low they seriously inhibited traffic over the rivers and if that gets worse you have to figure out how to move it by other means. And we do not have much tolerance in the rest of the system. River transport is of course a lot of bulk goods.

These things might well be a problem before any of our dikes fail.
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