Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change

[vox_mundi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ColoradoClimate/status/1302654620733333504

Meteorologists will be checking to see whether any place in Colorado officially beats the national record for the shortest gap between a 100-degree day and measurable snow.

It had been five days in Rapid City, S.D., in 2000, says Alaska-based climatologist Brian Brettschneider, who notes that he studied only records kept at major weather stations.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/08/910677557/in-48-hours-colorados-wild-weather-sets-records-for-both-heat-and-snow


What a difference a day makes

[Phil42]

Some anecdotes from Switzerland

It has been an interesting summer here. An mentionable observation I made was that people in general (including me) would describe this summer as "average" or "normal" in regards to temperature. But in reality it has been one of the 10 hottest summers ever recorded in the country. But since it was cooler than 2016, 2018 and 2019 it actually didn't feel that extreme. I think that's a very good example that our feelings of what is "normal" are shifting rapidly with the rising temperatures. This is just an anecdote, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear similar stories from other parts of the world.

Another thing that happened was that the highest alert for severe weather was issued for the first time in 15 years. Despite the summer being slightly below average in rainfall, we have seen some very intense rainfalls in the end of August causing floods in the south. This is consistent with a trend too here: less rainfall in summer, but when it rains, it pours.

And now, there was this mid-September heatwave gripping Western-Central Europe. September records broken in several stations across multiple countries. Here in CH, the station in Fahy (596m above sea level) has set a new september record of 29.9C. The heatwave doesn't get that much attention in the media, which is kind of surprising to me since the anomalies are up to 15C above normal. But then again, with the increasing number of heatwaves they feel more and more "normal" every year.

There hasn't been anything too extraordinary happening, but everything is just consistent in the trend of everything getting warmer. More heatwaves, glaciers melting, fish dying and ... nothing changes.

[nanning]

You probably mean "nothing changes in (civilisation-) human behaviour" or somesuch?

Here cold records and hot records were broken in July and now in September. Very weird.
Climate change is especially seen in the winter months which are already heated up ca. +3°C this year, and more turbulence; higher average wind force, faster changes in wind direction and different wind direction distribution. This will be one hell of a climate transition. Omegad.
This is in the north of the Netherlands, 53°N.

I think your observations of new 'normals' in weather are spot on. Missing life forms are also part of the new 'normal'.

[El Cid]

The problem with anecdotal weather is that...it is anecdotal. And most people have a very very short and faulty memory. When (many years ago)  I crosschecked my grandparents stories about weather during their childhood with actual weather data it turned out that their memories were less than exact to put it mildly. So here are some actual data from Central Europe (Budapest).

Monthly average temperature, monthly minimum temperature, monthly maximum temperature 1960-1990 avg vs 2010-2019 avg

1. -0,6 vs 1,3  ;  -9,3 vs -7 ; 9,5 vs 11,5
2. 1,9 vs 3,1   ;  -7,3 vs -5,3;  11,5 vs 15,1
3. 6,3 vs 8,2   ;  -4,1 vs -1,9; 19,8 vs 21
4. 11.8 vs 13,8 ; 1,1 vs 2,4;  24,4 vs 27,8
5. 16,6 vs 17,4;  5,4 vs 6,6; 28,6 vs 30,2
6. 19,8 vs 22 ;  9,5 vs 11,7; 31,6 vs 34,8
7. 21,5 vs 23,8 ; 11,8 vs 12,6; 33,5 vs 36,4
8. 20,8 vs 23,5  ; 10,9 vs 12,6; 33,1 vs 36,1
9. 17 vs 18,2     ; 6,6 vs 7,7; 29,5 vs 31,1
10. 11,5 vs 12,5 ; 0,8 vs 1,8; 23,8 vs 24,7
11. 5,7 vs 7,9 ; -3,4 vs -0,9; 16,5 vs 19,1
12. 1,6 vs 2,8 ; -7,3 vs -6,4; 11,5 vs 13,7

As you can see average temperatures rose cca 2 C but monthly minimum and maximum temperatures also rose similarly.

I also checked the standard deviation of temps and other distribution measures, eg skewness, the length of the growing season, last and first frost date, etc. The point is that all temperatures rose and volatility is not statistically higher than before. The weather is not at all more weird than it used to be (although it seems like that to us), it is not that the highs are higher and the lows are lower, and it is not more extreme. It is simply warmer. Shorter, warmer winters, longer, warmer summers,early spring, late autumn. It is not more chaotic than before. Simply, my country is slowly transitioning into the subtropical zone.

Warming does not cause more volatility in temperatures, it just causes warming. And coincidentally more rain globally but a changing distribution of rain which could be more dangerous than the effect of temperatures as adaptation to (much) less or much more precipitation can be very hard.

[Comradez]

Hey, so apparently there is a tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean right now.  Could possibly reach hurricane strength before slamming into Greece.  Named Udine / Ianos
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=121371

[Alphabet Hotel]

From The Guardian, 21 Sep 2020


I'm 18 and can already see my Alaska community changed forever by climate change

In Sitka, where people have lived for thousands of years, I’ve seen glaciers shrink, summer droughts and deadly landslides – and our elected officials are doing nothing

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/21/sitka-alaska-community-changed-forever-climate-change-cora-dow

[vox_mundi]

Two Dead and 24 Missing After Floods in France and Italy
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/03/floods-france-italy-record-rain

Record rain in mountainous region destroys bridges, blocks roads and cuts off communities

... In northern Italy’s Piedmont region, overnight rainfall reached levels not recorded since 1958. As much as 630mm (24.8in) of rain fell in a 24-hour period, according to the Italian civil protection agency.

In south-east France, almost a year’s average rainfall fell in less than 12 hours in the mountainous area surrounding the city of Nice.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Well, this Oct 23 is 80º F in Twinsburg, which is kinda weird.

[The Walrus]

Well, this Oct 23 is 80º F in Twinsburg, which is kinda weird.

And snow is forecast in Texas this weekend.

[gerontocrat]

Rermnants of Epsilon & then Zeta cross the Atlantic

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54735772
Hurricane Epsilon sends huge waves to NI coastline

A very deep area of low pressure and the remnants of Hurricane Epsilon created the conditions to bring about the huge Atlantic swells.

One buoy reported a maximum wave height of close to 30m (98ft)

The size and power of the waves sent skilled surfers to the coast, but these high seas can be very dangerous.

We are not out of the woods yet with not one but two deep lows coming in for the weekend.

After a brief lull with some sunshine on Friday, winds will strengthen again and are likely to be higher than those we had on Wednesday.

Gales or severe gales will develop in places through Saturday, also Sunday into Monday, the second area of low pressure containing the remnants of Hurricane Zeta.

[blu_ice]

Winter is coming, or maybe not.

All time November temperature record in Finland: 14.7 C was measured in Pori at the early hours of Nov 3rd.  Quite remarkably it may be broken already next Friday.

Previous record 14.3 C was from 2015.

[John Batteen]

Things are oscillating wildly on the northern plains.  On October 9th, Aberdeen SD set a record high for the date of 86f.  Over the next two weeks, the temperature got colder every single day, it snowed three times for around ten inches all told, then tied the record low for the date of October 26th at -3f, then set the record low for the date at 1f on the 27th.  Now on the 3rd of November we set the record high for the date at 76f, then on the 4th we tied the record high for the date at 78f.  The record high for the month of November is only 79f.  A few other recording stations throughout the state did record their all time November highs on the 4th.

[Tor Bejnar]

And therefore "Climate Weirding" (popularized by Katharine Hayhoe)

[vox_mundi]

Things are oscillating wildly on the northern plains. 

That's going to mess with winter wheat.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Pushing 80º F in Twinsburg again...

[John Batteen]

The trees had started budding out like it was spring, then the cold wind blew in night before last and froze them off.  I think they'll be OK but, far from ideal.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I wrote a short blog/piece on netweather looking at the links between climate change and mid latitude weather. It's a quite light but it's intended to set up some more in-depth articles to come:

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10569-variable-british-weather-is-something-up?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=nw&utm_campaign=social

[oren]

Thanks BFTV, very clear writeup that helped me understand some things I should have known a long time ago.

[interstitial]

I wrote a short blog/piece on netweather looking at the links between climate change and mid latitude weather. It's a quite light but it's intended to set up some more in-depth articles to come:

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10569-variable-british-weather-is-something-up?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=nw&utm_campaign=social

excellent

[Kirr]

An unusual ice storm occurred in Vladivostok on Nov. 20. Massive layer of ice was deposited on all surfaces, with severe damage to trees and wires. Most of trees are severely damaged, and the ground is covered with broken off branches.

Parts of city still have no electricity, water and heating. Two high voltage transmission line towers collapsed under the added weight of ice, causing blackout in part of city. It's still unknown when the power will be restored.

A separate big concern is for birds who lost access to seeds, an important food source this season.




Ice that formed on the wires:


More photos at: http://kirr.homeunix.org/nature/2020-11-20-Vladivostok-Ice-Storm/.

I've no idea if such events are getting more frequent or more severe with the changing climate.

[kassy]

That looks pretty nasty. Thanks for reporting and welcome.

[Tor Bejnar]

I've certainly experienced ice storms, but that hunk of ice being held by that mitten sure beats the cake out of any rime ice or ice storm coatings I've ever seen in person.  (Compare Mt. Washington, New Hampshire, USA rime ice images.)  More pictures of this Russian event here, with one example below.

[sidd]

This looks like an icestorm i came thru in Kansas about twenty years ago. I-70 was a mess, i was eastbound  and started seeing wrecks as i crossed the colorado border. Got one of the last motel rooms somewhere east of kanorado and was stuck there for a couple days while they cleared the mess.

sidd

[Alphabet Hotel]

More photos at: http://kirr.homeunix.org/nature/2020-11-20-Vladivostok-Ice-Storm/.

I've no idea if such events are getting more frequent or more severe with the changing climate.

I posted a link to this page over on another blog. Someone clicked on it and got a warning from Malwarebytes. He then proceeded to block me over there, tell everyone I am trying to hack them and to NEVER click on any links I post.

I opened it and all I saw was a photo gallery.

[Kirr]

I posted a link to this page over on another blog. Someone clicked on it and got a warning from Malwarebytes. He then proceeded to block me over there, tell everyone I am trying to hack them and to NEVER click on any links I post.

I opened it and all I saw was a photo gallery.

What? The only thing I can imagine sub-optimal with my site is not using HTTPS. There's 0 trackers, ads, or any dynamic content, there's even no any analytics scripts. It's just a static page, lovingly hand-crafted for this special event. Is this enough to get flagged as suspicious in today's world of social networks and gigantic platforms? Further more, my site is not even anonymous.

Re-posting the link is welcome anywhere (as I don't show ads, I don't get any income from it). If you let me know the blog where you tried to post it, I will register there and post the link myself (as long as it's not a social network site), to see it gets me blocked too.

[vox_mundi]

BBC might be safer ...

Vladivostok Snowstorm: Emergency Declared Amid Chaos and Power Cuts
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55015516



... "The situation with the electricity supply remains very difficult - the destruction is widespread," the deputy head of the region's government, Elena Parkhamenko, said.

She said electricity may not be restored to some homes for several days.

The chief of the regional meteorological service, Boris Kubay, said the situation has been "aggravated by a strong gale wind that breaks everything".

He said a clash between two storms, one carrying hot air and another carrying cold, caused freezing rain on Thursday.

The meteorologist said wires and trees were encrusted in ice up to 1.2cm (0.4in) thick, an occurrence not seen in 30 years

[... We used to see that every year up near Portland, OR]

Local media said some hospitals in Vladivostok, including one treating coronavirus patients, had to use back-up generators for electricity.

[interstitial]

While the wires near the person look like cable. I wouldn't cross that close to power lines.

[oren]

Kirr don't worry, nothing wrong with your site, it opens perfectly. Thanks for sharing, and welcome.

[El Cid]

We had something like that a few years ago, many centimeters of  ice on trees after the frozen rain. I left to meet some friends in the afternoon by car, and by the time I came home late night, about 10 huge trees fell on the 200 m long road leading to our house. I parked the car and walked home but heard more trees falling during the night. One hit our house but did not cause much damage luckily. Pretty frightening experience.

[Kirr]

Thanks for the welcome, kassy and oren! I have to say I've been lurking here for years, and learned a lot (especially from AbruptSLR's thread). Hoping to be able to also contribute something useful in the future.

[Sigmetnow]

Is it “weird weather” where they have a system in place to deal with it?

11/22/20, 5:34 PM
China may have the world’s biggest high speed rail network, but it’s reliant on guys sat on top of a train with wooden sticks to de-ice the overhead power lines in winter! @25kV 

➡️ https://twitter.com/ogilvie_cj/status/1330640786711588865
Screen cap below; 53 second vid at the link.

[s1235smith]

Hello, on November 20th an ice storm, maybe the same one mentioned above hit Changchun city, Jilin Province, China (were I am) and much of northern china.  There were of branches of trees everywhere broken off with the weight of the ice and the wind.  This was followed by quite heavy snow.  It has been sunny for several days now.

I can tell you travelling to work on the bus (the light rail did not work) took hours.  I have no idea how the bus drivers managed to drive on the ice and snow covered roads that were lined with broken trees.

[CraigsIsland]

Amazing pictures and stories of those freezing rains and wind storms. I shudder at the thought of being in one. Beautiful, but so destructive!

[Sigmetnow]

Huge storm south of Alaska just laughs at the “bombogenesis” event happening off the northeast U.S. coast.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I have another blog post over on netweather. Looking at some examples of how Arctic Amplification is altering mid-latitude winter weather and contributing to more extremes.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10610-arctic-amplification-and-winter-weather---whats-the-connection

[Gray-Wolf]

I have another blog post over on netweather. Looking at some examples of how Arctic Amplification is altering mid-latitude winter weather and contributing to more extremes.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10610-arctic-amplification-and-winter-weather---whats-the-connection

Thanks for that BFTV!

[El Cid]

I have another blog post over on netweather. Looking at some examples of how Arctic Amplification is altering mid-latitude winter weather and contributing to more extremes.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10610-arctic-amplification-and-winter-weather---whats-the-connection

This theory (waccy weather, wavy jetstream leading to extreme winters) was quite popular at the beginning of the 2010s (after a few cold winters) but I think it's been largely discredited by the very warm winters in Europe. I don't know about NA in detail, but Europe has seen very warm winters in the past 7 years, and what's more, winter minima were significantly higher than previously, ie: no extremes at all. I believe that the opening of the Chukchi/Bering modified the circulation, favoring a colder NA, warmer Europe. I wrote about that (charts, data) in the atmospheric connections thread

[kassy]

In the Netherlands we set a new record of days over 10 degrees at 286 days with possibly 1 or 2 more coming in the next few days.

Old record was 2002 with 285 days.

Also a record string of 233 consecutive days over 10C and latest ever day in the year over 10 C (with today and possibly tomorrow also clearing this mark.

The record string of days without mild frost is now 700 days and still going.

https://www.nu.nl/binnenland/6098104/weerrecord-maximumtemperatuur-bleef-dit-jaar-286-dagen-boven-10-graden.html

[IceConcerned]

Living in Nantes (western France) I just spotted today in a public park two cherry trees (not close together) blossoming
My personal impression is that we are going more and more towards having two blossomings per year instead of one for most flowering trees and bushes

[be cause]

Possibly .. https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FPrunus_subhirtella&psig=AOvVaw0S03P0ELZDcEKVESf0S8YL&ust=1608856908024000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAIQjRxqFwoTCJCb4JWx5e0CFQAAAAAdAAAAABAF

[P-maker]

Reality is that two World records were beaten over New Year: 921 hPa over the Aleutian Islands and 1094 hPa over Mongolia ( 5 hPa over the previous record MSLP ).

At the same time, leading modelling centres tend to smear out all extreme events. Best bid is that a new SSW event is on it's way???

Not being able to forecast two co-lateral pressure extremes may not bode well for future long-term weather forecasting, not even mentioning seasonal forecasting and climate scenarios for the coming decades.

One could wonder, if their inabilities to forecast extremes like these is a built-in weakness? Maybe it is time for them to get their act together and provide some useful and bold forecasts in order to get rid of their "Fear Of Missing Out".

Sometimes you have to be bold ( and be mistaken as well ) in order to change the world. Being afraid of exposing your own and your institutional capacities as well should not remain an excuse.

A pressure drop of 58 hPa in 24 hours, a metre of snow in Japan, half a metre in NE USA speaks for itself.

Those poor folks on the Aleutian Islands, who were not warned of 18 m waves before New Years Eve, must have felt betrayed, and may not have survived to tell their stories to their families.

[El Cid]

Best bid is that a new SSW event is on it's way???

See atmospheric connections thread, SSW is already under way

[Aluminium]

Lake Baikal, 05.01.2021.

[sailor]

Historical snowfall in the center of Spain. Madrid paralyzed, airport closed.

Weatherman says it will keep going on until tomorrow, probably the most intense snow storm here since 1960’s. I indeed have not seen anything like this in Madrid before. People can use the skis in the street!! In fact it is the only practical transport way right now.

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2021-01-09/storm-filomena-sees-10-spanish-provinces-on-alert-madrid-grind-to-a-halt-and-barajas-airport-closed.html

Below a guy on a sled pulled by dogs, quite the view in Madrid, from a video posted on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/hombremontana/status/1347636995133218820?s=21

[vox_mundi]

Central Spain Records Temperatures of -25C After Snowstorm
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55632791

[El Cid]

Central Spain Records Temperatures of -25C After Snowstorm
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55632791

I guess that is not really good for orange-trees...or even apricots for that matter...

[Alphabet Hotel]

Historical snowfall in the center of Spain. Madrid paralyzed, airport closed.

As one who lives in a place that gets winter weather, I find it hilarious that this is considered some kind of historic storm. You can still see the tires of those cars in the photos.

Here's a photo from our historic 1978 storm:

[kassy]

Well when it rains in the desert that is probably a historic event too.
Those tires are well covered though. 

[El Cid]

Historical snowfall in the center of Spain. Madrid paralyzed, airport closed.

As one who lives in a place that gets winter weather, I find it hilarious that this is considered some kind of historic storm. You can still see the tires of those cars in the photos.

Here's a photo from our historic 1978 storm:

Nice picture of the 1987 historic  snowstorm  (it has not been that cold since then) in Hungary. BTW, winters have warmed cca 2-3 C since the 1950-80 period here. Average winter minima also went up by that much, somuchso that figs are becoming normal in the warmer places (near lakes, big cities with urban heat island, and on hillsides)

[The Walrus]

Rare snow in the Sahara.